Pressing the reset button.......again (1 Viewer)

   Ok I will admit it that I have really, really, struggled switching over from yearly fantasy to daily fantasy over the last three years. There is getting to be so much information out there now that my head is swimming sometimes. I have read so many articles from the so called experts over the last few years I should be blind. The only real help it gave me was making me a better reader. Just kidding. maybe. I often wonder if the the average working guy with just a modest bankroll can really ever be successful. I have heard, read the stories, so know it's possible. 

   The first year I just dabbled. The second year I dabble a bit more, and did more research.  Both losing seasons overall. I had fun, but didn't do that well. My bankroll was very low and it really had no bearing on my enjoyment. I just kept getting in contest until I lost my money each year. Once that was done, I was done. Now last year I decided to take it much more serious and followed FBG's daily football stuff with a passion and used all the tools available to me. I spent much, much more time researching than I ever had before. Early season last year was great for me, and I was actually up a lot and very excited about the rest of the season. I knew the trends and numbers would get better known the more the season went on. At least that is what I had read. Unfortunately that is not what happened.  I ended up losing everything I had won plus my whole bankroll before the season ended again. I know a lot of it was me getting greedy and not sticking to my $1 and $2 dollar games. I won't be doing that again. Mostly I just couldn't get a win double ups, seems like a player would get hurt every freakin week on my team. It really made me wonder how other people were doing well with the FBG tools and I was struggling. Almost seemed like the more research I did, the worse I did each week. I finally just got burned out. 

   After looking back, i think information overload was a big problem. Don't get me wrong, I love FBG. There tools are awesome also. I think the biggest problem is not being able to see the trees because to the forrest. This year I am going to narrow down my focus on certain writers here and at PFF. The forums are great, but sometimes you wonder if guys are just jerking you. Once again, I think it is key to find a few you really trust and follow them. I'll be honest, I have even had doubts about the staff being not straight forward when it comes to players. Seems like many times last year I would see players someone would suggest and then find out they didn't even use many they talked up in there own lineups. Maybe they just are smarter than me and it was a legit swap or change. It's not there job to give me chalk/good plays. It's there job to give the information to make a good decision myself. One other big thing I am doing this year that I didn't do last year is using a day to re-evaluate the players that I didn't use in my core bunch for the week. I will set down and try to write down all the players in good matchups that the crowd is not talking about. I have been very surprised at how many good players with good matchups are still out there that nobody is talking about. For example Washington's passing game. I think I may even make another cash game lineup with all the "against the crowd" players this week and go with 2 cash game lineups. 

  Anyway, I love our forum here and think most everyone is really trying help, so I plan on being less of a lurker and more active this year. I don't mind posting my lineups either, anyone stupid enough to follow them has already been warned. lol.

Obviously everyone (The Crowd) is talking Dak, Ware, and maybe Marvin are the main chalk plays this week. 

My "Follow the Crowd" cash lineups this week look similar on DK and FD. Those are the two places I play. 

FD- Dak, Ware, DWill, Julio, AB, OBJ, Fleener, Hauschka, Eagles. 

Probably be a ton of these lineups this week on FD. Kickers could be all the difference. 

DK- Dak, Zeke, Devonta, Julio, Marshall, Stills, Allen, Marvin, Browns. 

This is more of my "Against the Crowd" lineup, still a work in progress. 

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Kind of in the same boat as as far as the last 2 years. I mostly play DFS for fun/hobby but wouldn't mind winning a bit a as well (obviously). I don't mind posting my lineups either but they are usually pretty worthless. I only play on FD.

1st shot at week 1:

Stafford, Ingram, Miller, Antonio, Julio, Eli Rogers, Bennett, Santos, Seahawks

First suggestion is don't play double ups (or very little exposure), especially the multi entry ones.   These are high variance. In general, you either double everything or get 0. 

Instead of double ups I would suggest h2hs and 3 man leagues. This give you a much narrower range of outcomes in the event your lineup is in the 40-50 percentile where you should be close to breaking even instead of losing everything. 

Third the lineup you have posted for DK is full of guys that will be less than 10% owned in cash.  Zeke, Freeman, Marshall, Stills, and Browns D. The higher owned guys are going to be Ware, C Michael, Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Cooper, Moncreif, Obj, Seahawks, Texans

Ive found that if you want to pick one article to use for your lineups it should be John Lee's. I've never seen him not be on the players he has suggested, and he is very good at spotting who to use. 

I have playing for two years before this one.  First year I played using very little information beyond what I used my year long leagues.  I ended down about 50%.  I couldn't of lost it all as I limit the amount of my bank I put in play each week to 30%.  I personally would suggest a limit on the percent of bank you put in play each week to avoid a bad week killing you because I think even great players have a occasional bad week.  Last year I put a lot more time into DFS and finished up 472% for the year.  I still have serious doubts about my ability to duplicate those results so while I am increasing the starting size of my bank this year I am still keeping it small.  I stick to mainly 50/50, X2, X3, and X5 contest all on DK.  Throw in a few tourneys and H2H.  I suck at tourneys lost money overall and at my rate of return on H2H's was much lower than on the other games.

Great replies, thank you. I did made a mistake on my original lineups post above. The DK one was suppose to be my "Against The Crowd" cash lineup, thanks for the reminder freeannyong. My "Crowd" lineup has a lot of those guys in the FD lineup. I love the idea you guys have suggested about the 3man leagues, never really thought of that myself. It just shows how critical game selection is. 

I was going to throw John Lee out there right up front. I agree that he seems to play the players he talks about. I also love his Vegas chart. I am also liking what I am seeing out of Steve Buzzard and Devin Knotts this year. I think we have a lot of great minds and writers here at FBG, but I also think some of those guys might be struggling to make the transition from yearly to daily as well. I am very happy DD is bringing back his blog, it's interesting to see how he thinks. Do you guys have any forum members you have to read each week that you really trust? 

I think I am going with 3 cash lineups this week and trying it out. Looking at a pretty Chalk lineup with all the talked about guys, a mix, and a non chalk. I will be trying out some 3 man leagues. Are you all really looking hard at who is in the league or not. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the Big Time DFS Players still have bad lineups like us all, they just have WAY more lineups and are in WAY more games to help off set their losses. 

I also am interested if you all think you need a different mind set to play on DK as when you play on FD. Seems like I never do well on both sites the same weeks. 

I mean things beyond the obvious like DK is PPR and the flex spot. 

I think I have finalized my 3 cash game FD rosters for the week.

#1- Dak, Cmike, AP, AB, Julio, OBJ, Ebron, Crosby, Eagles

I took Ware, Dwill, and Fleener out. Not really liking the latest news on Ware and Fleener. I feel like Cmike will get enough touches to justify his spot. AP speaks for himself. 

#2-Carr, Miller, Mathews, Crab, Julio, Monc., Reed, Vina, Sea

Probably my favorite one of the bunch.

#4-Stafford, McCoy, Gurley, Cobb, AB, Marvin, Bennett, Hauska, Eagles. 

I wasn't sold on Bennett, but with Gronk out who else is going to catch passes. 

I am going strictly with tournaments this year.  Cash games are like black jack at a casino, and I hate black jack.

Last year, like the OP, I tried to get all the research and use all the info, and bankroll management and all the advice of the experts.  I didn't even have fun.  F- that.

Two years ago, I won 800% of my bankroll in a week 2 GPP, with no assistance or talk from anyone.  Pocketed half, used the rest to enjoy the rest of the season.  I am not talking big money here, either, but you can get 100th place in a GPP early in the season and fund the rest of the year.  I am sticking to low cost entries, and trying to milk the free stuff from the promotions.  Only on DK.  ( I do have a couple flyers out there on FD from points leftover from last year, but I won't be making a deposit.)

I did hear that FD is no longer posting ownership percentages after the thursday night game, which is interesting.  I never used it anyway, but that could change the advantage the "experts" have.  I guess there are some other sites out there that will post ownership, but can't vouch for reliability on them.  I can't remember the name.  Most just seem to be assuming the ownership percentages, and I think you are spot on with your assumptions of the chalk plays.  

My plan this year is to have fun as long as it lasts, and then concentrate on the season-long even more.

Well my FD lineups all got beat in cash last week. My favorite one with Carr scored 126.86, but that still wasn't good enough. Luckily my DK cash lineups did good. I won 2/3. scored 152 and 158 with winners. Just saw I forgot to post the DK lineups last week. 

#1 - Dak, Miller, Cmike, Monc, Cobb, Watkins, Z. Miller, Evans, Cle (104)

#2- Brees, White, Cmike, OBJ, Hopkins, S. Smith, Allen, Ware, Sea (152)

#3- Staff, Mathews, Ware, Julio, Coop, Marvin, Bennett, Snead, Eagles (158)

Glad I still had Ware in play even after a lot of people going off him. Allen was going to be in for a big day. Bennett sucked for everyone. My best pick was probably Snead. I still think S. Smith will be a good play again this week, he got the targets. 

Ok, put in a DK LU for cash games tonight. Fading all the players playing tonight, but hoping, like usual, a bunch of people take them. Put like $30 in double ups and 50/50 in the $1 and $2 range. 

Went with this: Siemian, Dwill, Cj, Ab, Alshon, T. Benjamin, Green, Crowder, SD

podunker said:

Ok, put in a DK LU for cash games tonight. Fading all the players playing tonight, but hoping, like usual, a bunch of people take them. Put like $30 in double ups and 50/50 in the $1 and $2 range. 

Went with this: Siemian, Dwill, Cj, Ab, Alshon, T. Benjamin, Green, Crowder, SD

Click to expand...

I have similar lineups.   I find myself having a very hard time getting away from DWill and CJ.  I just think the matchups are gold.

Having a much harder time on FD than on DK so far after two weeks. I cashed in all three of my DK lineups this week, but only one of three in FD. 

DK lineups:

#1 Simian, CJ, DWill, T. Benj., AB, Jeffery, Green, Crowder, and Chargers. (141)  I played this against the Thursday night crew, plan on playing one CG each week here. I feel like too many people pick up players in the Thursday night games, and they don't pay off. Last week might have been the exception with Forte, Decker, but on average these are poor/low scoring games. 

Benjamin was all the talk this week and paid off, my own take on Crowder paid off.

#2 Garopp, Ingram, DJ, T. Benj, Coop, Fuller, Barn, DWill, Pats. (148)

Luckily Jimmy went off before getting injured. Fuller is for real it seams like. 

# Cam, CJ, Blount, Kelvin, Fuller, AJ, Rudolph, S. Smith, Panthers. (165)

My best LU for week, even won some money in GPP's. Cam was talked about all week, along with their defense. Didn't hear much about Kelvin which surprised me. Blount wasn't talked about much either, but paid off. Maybe game script helped him a little. I still like Smith, getting lots of targets. 

Overall on DK I bet $119 and won $192. $73 dollar profit on week. I had a $30 profit last week, so up $103 for year. 

FD lineups:

#1 Garopp, Jennings, Blount, AB, AJ, Coop,Pitta, Prater, Seahawks (94)

Jennings was a bad call on me. Big 3 WR's didn't do well this week. Pitta was my best call, and like him going forward. Top WR's in general did not do well this week. 

#2 McCown, DJ, Lat, Sanders, AJ, Crab, Barn, Bryant, Panthers (101)

McCown was ok for his price. Seemed like nobody was talking about Latavious this week either, my best call by far. 

#3 Cam, DWill, CJ, AB, Kelvin, Tyrell Williams, Green, Gano, Chargers (147)

This LU saved my week.  Cam's LU won  $30 in a SE tournament. Gano was money. Kelvin and Tyrell Williams were my best calls. 

I bet $87 this week won $105 in week two on FD. Still down about $50 for year on FD. 

My thoughts for the week. The stud WR's didn't pan out this week for sure and killed a lot of LU's. However, the Chalk RB's did well. The Chalk QB's did pretty well also. I don't think you can go full chalk and win that often. I think you have to mix and match to have success. You can't go crazy in cash games like GPP's so make sure you do your homework on the non chalk plays. I also like the idea of putting my own spin on my LU's. Make me feel like I actually am learning something and not just relying on other people. My guys this week that I felt like were not talked about much were Blount, Crowder, Kelvin, S. Smith, Rudolph, Pitta, Latavious, Tyrell Williams, Jennings. Only one really sucked it up, Jennings. Here was my reasoning on them. 

Blount- Figure NE would get up early and they would pound the ball. He is their goal line back. Usually good for at least 1 TD. Game script changed when Garopp got hurt and he probably got more carries than he would have. But I also think he would have had still been valuable. 

Crowder- He got tons of targets week 1 and has been talked a lot about in the off season. Like his talent level from the slot position. Defenses have to pay attention to Reed and DJax which leaves him an afterthought. 

Kelvin- I was amazed how very little talk there was about him. There was lots of Panthers talk, but I guess they figured it was going to be a blowout with no passing. He is an absolute beast in my opinion. A TE playing WR, and always a mismatch against smaller QB's. Great redzone target because of his size. Cam seems to love him also. Targets, targets, and more targets.

S. Smith - He is still getting lots of targets and figured they would be passing. I think he is just going to get better as the season goes on. Flacco looks his way often, and with Wallace developing I think it only helps Smith. Baltimore's running game sucks. 

Rudolph- I figured Bradford would start and the TE would be his security blanket. I think he is a talent and No. 2 guy on this team. Cheap price to boot. So far the TE position has not been good in Fantasy, why pay up for one. 

Pitta - See above about Balt rushing attack. Flacco is very tight with him and with Smith and Wallace outside the middle is open. Cheap price you can't beat. 

Latavious- Oakland is going to run the ball. He is still the main back and redzone guy. High scoring game, so figured he would score at least once. Heard a few snippets about him but most of the talk was on Carr, Coop, Crab and passing game. 

Tyrell Williams - Cheap price and team that likes to throw the ball. Big target. I can see his role growing. 

Jennings- I thought NY might get up in a lopsided game and start pounding the ball. NO is bad against the run. Game script didn't pan out for him. 

I'm going to play one of my three cash lineups against the Thurs/Mon crew again this week. I have a mix of chalk and not chalk it seems. Who knows.......

DK (EDITED ON 9-23) NEW LU IN CAPS

QB- Brees- RYAN ( WILL PUT UP GOOD NUMBERS ALSO)

RB- Elliot, D. Murray - GORDON, D. MURRAY ( GORDON WAS CHEAPER, AND LET ME GET THE 2 STUD WR'S)

WR- TY, S. Smith, Snead - AB, JULIO, BEASLEY (OLD WR'S GROUP SCARED ME, NOT THIS ONE)

TE - Burton -BURTON Great bargain as long as Ertz is out

FL - L. McCoy - TAMME (HAD TO GO CHEAP, FEEL LIKE HE HAS THE MOST UPSIDE)

D - Cowboys - COWBOYS Should have no problem with Bears and Hoyer. Teaming them up with Zeke

THIS LOOKS LIKE A GPP TEAM, BUT STILL LIKE IT. SANU ISN'T HEALTHY SO THAT MEANS MORE TARGETS FOR JULIO, TAMME. IT WILL PROBABLY BE A BUST!!!!

FD

QB- Eli - If Gordon is on OBJ, Eli is going to be throwing to Shepard

RB - Blount, McCoy- Rookie QB with Blount should see the ball a lot. McCoy a true 3 down back

WR- AB, Julio, Shepard- Two Studs, See QB for Shepard, lots of targets

TE - J. James-TD machine, huge target

K - Vina- points, points, points

D - Mia-Chalk

Blount got me off to a good start last night on FD. The last two weeks have showed you can't always completely fade the Thursday night game. Decker, Forte last week, Blount, NE defense this week.