What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Who are the Smart Sell Lows? (1 Viewer)

tombonneau

Footballguy
I.e. Who are the guys your partner thinks he's buying low when really he's just loading up on Enron stock

Week 1 can be crucial for spotting and unloading the Massive Bust before everyone in the room can see it and it's too late. 

I hate to say it as I just traded up for him in startup dynasty, but if I had Gurley in redraft I would be entertaining offers. I think it's a long year in LA. 

Dez is another guy that I'd try to move on name brand early if you can get a "wr downgrade" with an upgrade at another spot. 

 
Dez is another guy that I'd try to move on name brand early if you can get a "wr downgrade" with an upgrade at another spot. 
I would advocate for a little more patience on Daz Preyant. Dez has never been a high volume WR. Even in 2014 he averaged only 8.5 tgts a game, compared to 8 targets/game in 2015. It's the quality of those targets which dictate his success. Writing off Dez right now would be akin to writing off Dak's rookie year as a Cassell/Weeden-esque year.... and I'm not getting that "career backup" vibe from Dak as of now.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Charles honestly. If he scratches this week and is trending towards the same next week, you'll get nothing for him. I'm trying to find a taker now to take the risk from me

 
Charles and Sammy seem like the 2. There's a lot of fishy things going on with their injuries.

 
Those four are all good ones.

I'm thinking the Ezekiel Elliott train took a hit only because the hype train was so high on him.  It would be amazing to live up to that.

 
Hyde. No way he lasts a full season. Looked like he was going to die every time he got hit. Was hardly involved in the passing game. His value is high right now so I'm trying to unload. I think he peaked last Monday.

 
Hyde. No way he lasts a full season. Looked like he was going to die every time he got hit. Was hardly involved in the passing game. His value is high right now so I'm trying to unload. I think he peaked last Monday.
Didn't he open up really well last year too.?

 
Hyde. No way he lasts a full season. Looked like he was going to die every time he got hit. Was hardly involved in the passing game. His value is high right now so I'm trying to unload. I think he peaked last Monday.
I'd say the opposite regarding Hyde.  While the Rams offense looked historically inept, their defensive front 7 is quite stout.  And Hyde I thought for at least half the game looked exceptional. Couple that with the fact that Gabbert looked competent but hardly a guy you want passing the ball more than 50% of the time, and Hyde has the makings of a potential 350+ touch monster.  On opportunity alone, I would see this out if I owned him.

As far as smart sell low - Rawls seems like a guy in a situation not befitting of his draft slot.  Christine Michael looks fairly good.  The SEA OL looks suspect.  With news that Rawls is the starter, I might take the opportunity to get 85 cents on the dollar there.

 
smart sell lows:

GRONK. something feels off about his timeline and belichick ain't in the mood to answer any injury questions. he's still just a limited participant after resting all weekend. i could see them resting the big fella as long as they keep winning. most teams who got him, spent a lot to get him and they don't really have a lot of time to recoup on the early round value...

latavius murray. he didn't look that bad on limited touches and even got a score. but he didn't even start the second half and seemed to be simply spelling washington or richard the third and fourth quarters. i think his value is lower than it was on draft day, but it's only going to get lower...

bad sell lows:

taylor. he's quite a bit cheaper than he was a week ago. the whole offense looked a mess and the ravens looked so ready for them. i think he'll return to last year's form and be a solid backup QB/bye week filler if not work his way into QB1 convo again.

gore. didn't look sexy. but 18 touches, decent YPC and the offense moved the ball quite a bit. he's got a terrible matchup against the broncos, so may be best to wait a week to buy him. but something to be said for taking advantage of his current consensus ranking for the week. he's coming in around RB36 or RB38. and if he keeps getting 15-20 touches a week, it shouldn't be that low again.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
smart sell lows:

GRONK. something feels off about his timeline and belichick ain't in the mood to answer any injury questions. he's still just a limited participant after resting all weekend. i could see them resting the big fella as long as they keep winning. most teams who got him, spent a lot to get him and they don't really have a lot of time to recoup on the early round value...

latavius murray. he didn't look that bad on limited touches and even got a score. but he didn't even start the second half and seemed to be simply spelling washington or richard the third and fourth quarters. i think his value is lower than it was on draft day, but it's only going to get lower...

bad sell lows:

taylor. he's quite a bit cheaper than he was a week ago. the whole offense looked a mess and the ravens looked so ready for them. i think he'll return to last year's form and be a solid backup QB/bye week filler if not work his way into QB1 convo again.

gore. didn't look sexy. but 18 touches, decent YPC and the offense moved the ball quite a bit. he's got a terrible matchup against the broncos, so may be best to wait a week to buy him. but something to be said for taking advantage of his current consensus ranking for the week. he's coming in around RB36 or RB38. and if he keeps getting 15-20 touches a week, it shouldn't be that low again.
I like Taylor, but I own Watkins, without Sammy, Taylor is in trouble. If Watkins misses time, or decoys next few weeks, TT won't be sellable for weeks. 

 
Just sold low on Peterson in redraft.

Straight up for LeVeon Bell.

I don't think Peterson is Enron stock or going to be a huge bust but I was willing to take on the risk of Bell missing 2 more games and increased injury risk IMO-along with possibly snaps to Deangelo- in order to trade a 31 year old RB for a 24 year old one who's invloved in the passing game.  Even in redraft the age difference seems significant.  ADP only averging 3.0 ypc over his last 7 games concerns me.

 
Just sold low on Peterson in redraft.

Straight up for LeVeon Bell.

I don't think Peterson is Enron stock or going to be a huge bust but I was willing to take on the risk of Bell missing 2 more games and increased injury risk IMO-along with possibly snaps to Deangelo- in order to trade a 31 year old RB for a 24 year old one who's invloved in the passing game.  Even in redraft the age difference seems significant.  ADP only averging 3.0 ypc over his last 7 games concerns me.
That's ridiculous. Bell > Peterson all day. You didn't sell low at all. You stole Bell from him.

 
I own Watkins in 1/10 leagues and will be trying to move him. That lingering foot issue sounds really bad. It was a serious injury and it's not just going to clear up quickly. I have TE issues in that league and will consider it a gift if I can do something like Watkins+Gates for Reed.  One injury risk for another, perhaps, but Reed is actually producing right now.

 
That's ridiculous. Bell > Peterson all day. You didn't sell low at all. You stole Bell from him.
Well, its PPR but also .25 per rush attempt so Bell's advantage is not as great as in reg. PPR.

And I'm 0-1 so I take on additional risk of having to play a much lesser RB for 2 weeks. Trade was with long time friend who just loves to trade.  He called me offering Bell plus some bench WRs for David Johnson.  I countered by offering him Peterson.  He wanted to throw in a bunch of other guys in package deals but I countered with the straight up deal and he took it.

Not a classic sell low since I got back really good value but I'm selling Peterson after a 31 yard 0 catch performance so it sort of fit.  We'll see how it works out.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
 I tried to move LeGarrette Blount + Sammy Watkins to a very RB needy owner (for Allen Robinson) earlier tonight, but I had a backup plan. (my 4 WRs in said league are Amari Cooper, Demaryius Thomas, Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins)

 He then offered to "take" Demaryius Thomas + Blount for Allen Robinson, which I was just as happy to do since that was my backup offer. (he has Julio and Dez as his other WRs)

 Before anyone starts saying "you guys got all the WRs!!", realize both our teams went WR-WR to open up the draft, and ultimately went 3 WRs in our first 4 picks. Its a start 3 WR league.

 I think its a bit of a sell low on DT. But then again, with this sore hip business, I think I might be avoiding a potential headache.

 Brings me to my point.

 Selling low on DT or even Sammy Watkins might be the shark move currently, since there are also injury questions surrounding them. Both look like they are going to be OK, but I have my concerns especially with Watkins.  That guy has been injured seemingly ever since he has been in the league.

 BUT- If you happen to have Demaryius Thomas, and are looking to cut bait, do yourself a favor and "gamble" one more week with him...if you can stomach it.

IF he plays, they are facing INDY, and both their starting corners are out, and it looks like a bunch of scrubs are going to start there. This is one of the more so-called "dream matchups" and you might be able to get more for him after this weekend.

 TZM

 
DT is probably a good sell low. Enough brand awareness and has yet to miss a game. And your risk is limited as it's not like he even has potential to come back and be a top 5 guy like a Dez does. 

 
DT is probably a good sell low. Enough brand awareness and has yet to miss a game. And your risk is limited as it's not like he even has potential to come back and be a top 5 guy like a Dez does. 
I think DT is a good one. Notwithstanding the potential hip injury, this Broncos offense is not what we saw just two years ago. A top-notch defense, inexperienced QB and a commitment to the run game is unlikely to support both (or either) of DT and Sanders as top-tier receiving options.

 
Freeman went high because of last year's stats more than either talent or opportunity. That's fine. I understand why it happened. But now that we have seen some of 2016 usage it's time to acknowledge 2016 isn't 2015

 
Good thread.  Fleener maybe?  I suspect he will have some nice games thrown in this year..but he may be difficult to trust on a weekly basis.  Drafted as a top 6 TE and then he gets 1 catch when Brees throws for eleventy billion yards.  Trend?  NYG give up a lot of TE points so maybe he bounces back this week.  I'm not sure.

 
I'm not sure if I can get on board with the concept of "selling low" when it comes to a lot of the names mentioned in this thread:. AP, Gurley, Gronk, Dez, Hyde?     These are all guys where their histories are more supportive of "buying low" than they are "selling low".  Besides that--the only motivation to sell any of these guys right now would be if you truly believed that their values will only go lower from this point on.   AP, Gurley, Dez, Gronk will all have some big games this season.  Once they have a signature game--the fantasy community will embrace them again--and their value will spike.  On those four guys--I think selling low is the wrong move.  

Hyde had a very solid first game--so if anything--he's a sell high--not a sell low right now.   In regards to the other names mentioned--D. Thomas, Watkins, Charles--these are all guys that are currently battling injury concerns.   If you don't have faith in their ability to get healthy this season---then I would be on board with selling these guys at a slight to moderate discount.    I didn't mention Tyrod in this post because I personally wouldn't think there is much of a market for him unless you play in a 14-16+ team league.  

 
Redraft only:

Freeman immediately comes to mind. He is really JAG and the Falcons coaching staff has no ties to him.

Lockett may be another one. I see more bust than boom games from him this year based on the GP/his usage week 1 (could be overreaction no doubt).

Latavius Murray is another. Even with bad game script he disappeared in 2nd half vs Saints.  

 
Obviously, this is all relative based on how we personally feel about players prospects for the rest of the season.  And the market in our respective leagues for players.

For example, I never bought into the Fleener hype at all.  He was a 6th round draft pick in my 14 team league but I'm not sure what kind of market there would be for him.  I have Olsen but even if I needed TE help, I'd like my chances on the waiver wire more than dealing anything of value for Fleener.  

On the flip side as a DT owner, I probably valued him on draft day and still now more highly than others so while I would definitely be willing to deal him, it would have to be a pretty good offer as I'm not actively trying to sell low even with the injury concern.  I would need to get back at least RB2 or WR2 with significant upside.

It would be helpful when you throw names out if people would talk about what you would be willing to sell low for, or any deals that have been proposed or actually made. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Obviously, this is all relative based on how we personally feel about players prospects for the rest of the season.  And the market in our respective leagues for players.

For example, I never bought into the Fleener hype at all.  He was a 6th round draft pick in my 14 team league but I'm not sure what kind of market there would be for him.  I have Olsen but even if I needed TE help, I'd like my chances on the waiver wire more than dealing anything of value for Fleener.  

On the flip side as a DT owner, I probably valued him on draft day and still now more highly than others so while I would definitely be willing to deal him, it would have to be a pretty good offer as I'm not actively trying to sell low even with the injury concern.  I would need to get back at least RB2 or WR2 with significant upside.

It would be helpful when you throw names out if people would talk about what you would be willing to sell low for, or any deals that have been proposed or actually made. 
I can give you an inverse view. As a Gurley owner in dynasty, I'm holding. But in my owner non-ppr 2RB 2WR 0FLEX 14-team league, I own Forte & Rawls. I probably would hesitate if Gurley was offered s/u for either of them. I'm way bullish on Rawls and I know he's polarizing, but I see Forte as a very steady low-end RB1.

 
wodahSShadow said:
Redraft only:

Freeman immediately comes to mind. He is really JAG and the Falcons coaching staff has no ties to him.

Lockett may be another one. I see more bust than boom games from him this year based on the GP/his usage week 1 (could be overreaction no doubt).

Latavius Murray is another. Even with bad game script he disappeared in 2nd half vs Saints.  
Not sure I understand this one... the breakdown of RB snaps:

45 - L. Murray

10 - J. Richard

8 - D. Wash

He had the same backfield share as Martin, Gore, Elliot, Hyde... are you advertising selling low on them too?

Oakland has a top 3 pass blocking offensive line, top 12 run-blocking. The game script favored passing early and often and since the WRs were running free there wasn't a lot of need for check-down passes to RBs or normal rushing plays.  Yet he still scored a goal-line TD.

Given he was going in the 5th round in most leagues I think he was still a great value.  If people are willing to sell for a 5th round WR or whatever I'll happily buy more shares of him.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
if he misses the first four weeks is this still a lol?

probably too late to sell low now that it seems he's unlikely to play this week. might as well ride it out.

but you probably could have gotten a good haul immediately after week 1.

 
Good thread.  Fleener maybe?  I suspect he will have some nice games thrown in this year..but he may be difficult to trust on a weekly basis.  Drafted as a top 6 TE and then he gets 1 catch when Brees throws for eleventy billion yards.  Trend?  NYG give up a lot of TE points so maybe he bounces back this week.  I'm not sure.
I sent him to the WW this week

 
In redraft Watkins might be waiver wire material. I am not sure what the bills are thinking by rushing him back. My guess is they don't let him heal up properly and he will be lucky to hit 700 yards this year. 

 
Tyrod.  If Sammy misses time, it adds to the already mess of a Buffalo offense.  a couple unlikely bomb TDs this week might make him sellable for SOMETHING.

 
probably too late to sell low now that it seems he's unlikely to play this week. might as well ride it out.

but you probably could have gotten a good haul immediately after week 1.
Are you meaning to say that it's probably too late to sell HIGH?

Selling low means that you are selling when his value is low, and you're getting little in return.

For example, in business, you always want to buy low(cheap) and sell high(most profit).

If you can help it, you NEVER want to sell LOW.

Eta - It appears the OP is also confused as to the wording of this practice.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I.e. Who are the guys your partner thinks he's buying low when really he's just loading up on Enron stock

Week 1 can be crucial for spotting and unloading the Massive Bust before everyone in the room can see it and it's too late. 

I hate to say it as I just traded up for him in startup dynasty, but if I had Gurley in redraft I would be entertaining offers. I think it's a long year in LA. 

Dez is another guy that I'd try to move on name brand early if you can get a "wr downgrade" with an upgrade at another spot. 
What you are describing is sell HIGHS, not lows.

In other words, you are trying to sell them for more(high) than what you think they will be worth later(low).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
What you are describing is sell HIGHS, not lows.

In other words, you are trying to sell them for more(high) than what you think they will be worth later(low).
Eh, I think the standard definition of Sell High is selling a guy who has high perceived value but who you think is peaking. So if Forte has a few more good games and is a Top 3 RB but I think he's going to wear down I sell him High.

That's the opposite of like what we were talking about for a guy like Watkins who after week 1 looked like you'd be Selling Low but now after this week you actually should have sold him as his value is even lower and will likely continue to plunge.

The entire post was to ID guys like that whose early value has taken a hit but still have brand appeal but you think will continue to underperform.

I mean if you want to be pedantic you would be selling a slumping guy at his "high" value, but Sell High in stocks and fantasy always indicates you are selling something (or trying) at the height of his upward trajectory, not at the "height" of its downward trajectory. That's just bailing out or selling for pennies on the dollar. :D

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think the standard definition of Sell High is selling a buy who has high perceived value but who you think is peaking. So if Forte has a few more good games and is a Top 3 RB but I think he's going to wear down I sell him High.

That's the opposite of like what we were talking about for a guy like Watkins who after week 1 looked like you'd be Selling Low but now after this week you actually should have sold him as his value is even lower and will likely continue to plunge.

The entire post was to ID guys like that whose early value has taken a hit but still have brand appeal but you think will continue to underperform.

I mean if you want to be pedantic you would be selling a slumping guy at his "high" value, but Sell High in stocks and fantasy always indicates you are selling something (or trying) at the height of his upward trajectory, not at the "height" of its downward trajectory. That's just bailing out or selling for pennies on the dollar. :D
High and low is the value, not the trajectory.

Selling low would be selling when they have very little value.

You are still trying to sell these players high(high return).

I can understand how it's confusing, but trust me, your wording is incorrect.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
High and low is the value, not the trajectory.

Selling low would be selling when they have very little value.You are still trying to sell these players high.
Yes, I totally get the arrant pedantry and appreciate it. But conceptually everyone else seems to completely understand what I was getting at with my post and I think it's yielded some valuable discussion. 

 
But conceptually everyone else seems to completely understand what I was getting at with my post and I think it's yielded some valuable discussion. 
I agree.

...though, upon reading the title, I did wonder why anyone would sell a player "low".

lol.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
This isn't going to be a popular pick, but... Ezekiel Elliott. His debut reminded me a lot of the first time I watched Melvin Gordon... just simply unready both physically and mentally to run between the tackles in the NFL. "They need to run him outside, throw him the ball in space..." Sorry but if you're the #4 pick overall, you don't need the team to create beneficial situations for you. The last time I heard these excuses used for a RB drafted this high was CJ Spiller.

JJ has already hinted that Morris is going to get more PT. Elliott has gotten a ton of benefit of the doubt due to his draft status and his social "noise", talking about how he's gunning for Dickerson's rookie rushing record. Ironically the guy that came the closest in recent years is the OTHER guy in this backfield, Alf. Use that benefit of the doubt to your benefit and trade Elliott before he turns into a falling knife.

 
chinawildman said:
This isn't going to be a popular pick, but... Ezekiel Elliott. His debut reminded me a lot of the first time I watched Melvin Gordon... just simply unready both physically and mentally to run between the tackles in the NFL. "They need to run him outside, throw him the ball in space..." Sorry but if you're the #4 pick overall, you don't need the team to create beneficial situations for you. The last time I heard these excuses used for a RB drafted this high was CJ Spiller.

JJ has already hinted that Morris is going to get more PT. Elliott has gotten a ton of benefit of the doubt due to his draft status and his social "noise", talking about how he's gunning for Dickerson's rookie rushing record. Ironically the guy that came the closest in recent years is the OTHER guy in this backfield, Alf. Use that benefit of the doubt to your benefit and trade Elliott before he turns into a falling knife.
Yeah. If you really believe this now is the time to move EE while he still pretty much has same pre-draft value. Because if Week 2 it's a 50/50 split and Morris outplays him he'll be fetching RB2 dollars.

 
chinawildman said:
This isn't going to be a popular pick, but... Ezekiel Elliott. His debut reminded me a lot of the first time I watched Melvin Gordon... just simply unready both physically and mentally to run between the tackles in the NFL. "They need to run him outside, throw him the ball in space..." Sorry but if you're the #4 pick overall, you don't need the team to create beneficial situations for you. The last time I heard these excuses used for a RB drafted this high was CJ Spiller.

JJ has already hinted that Morris is going to get more PT. Elliott has gotten a ton of benefit of the doubt due to his draft status and his social "noise", talking about how he's gunning for Dickerson's rookie rushing record. Ironically the guy that came the closest in recent years is the OTHER guy in this backfield, Alf. Use that benefit of the doubt to your benefit and trade Elliott before he turns into a falling knife.
Yeah. If you really believe this now is the time to move EE while he still pretty much has same pre-draft value. Because if Week 2 it's a 50/50 split and Morris outplays him he'll be fetching RB2 dollars.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top