Seriously. They just ran for more yards than any team in NFL history and they're going to waste their 1st rounder on another RB?
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QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
Seriously. They just ran for more yards than any team in NFL history and they're going to waste their 1st rounder on another RB?
Tau837
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Titans dominated both lines yesterday. OL or DL #1 imo.
Seriously. They just ran for more yards than any team in NFL history and they're going to waste their 1st rounder on another RB?
PinkydaPimp
Footballguy
“Peyton Manning didn’t win a playoff game until SIXTH year in NFL. Then he threw 3 INTs. No announcer said NFL “figured him out” or condemned his style.”
Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
I have really enjoyed this thread all year. Thnx all.
After last night, reactions like we have here today were expected by me.
All I have to say - right now: Thanks for an absolutely wonderful season LJ. You made my year much better.
After last night, reactions like we have here today were expected by me.
All I have to say - right now: Thanks for an absolutely wonderful season LJ. You made my year much better.
I highly doubt "league sources" have any real info. on their draft plans when all of the focus has been on winning right now. Edwards had a 5.3 ypc, he's better than JAG, and no way are they cutting Ingram this year. He's only going to count a little over $5 mil against the cap and they'd only save ~$2 mil by cutting him. Unless he banged Harbaugh's wife, they aren't cutting a pro bowler who ran for 5 ypc and scored 15 TDs for that meager savings.
I've seen some mocks quoting league sources. Not pulling stuff out of thin air. Edward's is JAG, Hill is a COP back. Ingram is a possible cap casualty after 2020.2021 is not an overly impressive year at rb. ideally they should wait a year or two but the 2020 class is deep
They won't be drafting a RB in the first round, makes zero sense.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
This is from July 31st of this year.
I saw that the Ravens were doing something unique. Something the league had never seen before.
What the Ravens are doing is unique. They pushed in all of the chips and built around this offense and it produced historic stats List of records Lamar Jackson set/tide this year and the best record in the league. They made the playoffs and got a bye and ran into a historic performing RB and lost.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Looks like they have lots FAs on defense so it’s likely the direction they go. Obviously for fantasy, I’m hoping it’s on the offensive side.
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Man of Constant Sorrow
Footballguy
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Because when you have a different opinion than someone some most people are too dumb, too lazy or both to understand. It’s frustrating. “Hater” and “triggered” are two of the worst words ever used.
Tau837
Footballguy
It would be foolish to discount the future of a QB who won MVP in his second season and first full season starting who just turned 23 a few days ago. But that is more from an NFL perspective than a fantasy perspective.
I think it is highly unlikely he will come close to the rushing yardage he posted this year in any future season, mainly driven by my belief that if he continues running 12+ times per game in future seasons, it is inevitable he will sustain injuries and miss games... and I expect his coaches to scale back the volume on that in favor of a combination of (a) more passing (he averaged fewer than 27 pass attempts per game this season) as he gets better at it and likely gets WR help, and (b) letting the RBs carry the majority of the running game (Jackson had ~30% of the team's rushing attempts this season).
I also think it is unlikely he will ever hit a 9.0 TD percentage or 36 passing TDs again. Somewhat surprisingly, there are only 35 instances in NFL history in which a QB passed for 36+ TDs.
Going forward, IMO it is likely that Jackson's pass attempts and pass yardage go up, pass TDs come down, interceptions go up, and rushing attempts and yards come down. As a fantasy QB, it is pretty likely that he just had his career season. If you can get someone in your dynasty league to pay a super high price, it might not be a bad idea to sell. Note, I'm not saying he won't be a top 10 QB, just saying I doubt he will be consistently top 5, much less #1 by a huge margin like he was this year.
I don't say that to "hate" on Jackson, just being realistic.
I think it is highly unlikely he will come close to the rushing yardage he posted this year in any future season, mainly driven by my belief that if he continues running 12+ times per game in future seasons, it is inevitable he will sustain injuries and miss games... and I expect his coaches to scale back the volume on that in favor of a combination of (a) more passing (he averaged fewer than 27 pass attempts per game this season) as he gets better at it and likely gets WR help, and (b) letting the RBs carry the majority of the running game (Jackson had ~30% of the team's rushing attempts this season).
I also think it is unlikely he will ever hit a 9.0 TD percentage or 36 passing TDs again. Somewhat surprisingly, there are only 35 instances in NFL history in which a QB passed for 36+ TDs.
Going forward, IMO it is likely that Jackson's pass attempts and pass yardage go up, pass TDs come down, interceptions go up, and rushing attempts and yards come down. As a fantasy QB, it is pretty likely that he just had his career season. If you can get someone in your dynasty league to pay a super high price, it might not be a bad idea to sell. Note, I'm not saying he won't be a top 10 QB, just saying I doubt he will be consistently top 5, much less #1 by a huge margin like he was this year.
I don't say that to "hate" on Jackson, just being realistic.
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Please don't call other posters takes here laughable. I know that's tame but we're trying to have a board where we're excellent to each other.
Disagree and state why and then discuss. It's a much better way to get good discussion I think. Thanks.
I agree. I think they should just be more purposeful with his legs. He doesn't need to be the first and second down rusher. Maybe they use them for a key first, definitely for a TD, but let the backs do the hard work
The Frankman
Footballguy
You don't have to be a hater to disagree, but when you hear comments about "novelty offense" after a QB in his 2nd year loses in the playoffs, yeah I get the responses. You have people coming out of the woodworks acting like Lamar is a glorified WR again and saying he shouldn't be the MVP in other threads, it's amazing. This loss doesn't diminish what he accomplished in the regular season, nor should it be a roadblock for him. He just needs to do work in the offseason like he did last year and who knows, maybe they make the Superbowl next year.
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The Duff Man
Footballguy
The league will adapt and he will regress. See Mahomes.
Doesn’t mean he won’t still be great and the Ravens will keep contending. But there are a few great young QBs in the AFC with similar potential.
The Ravens wasted this opportunity.
Doesn’t mean he won’t still be great and the Ravens will keep contending. But there are a few great young QBs in the AFC with similar potential.
The Ravens wasted this opportunity.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
There is a defensive formula to containing this offense, but it takes the right personnel to do it. Most teams don’t have that personnel or discipline. I don’t think it’s as easy as, “just do XYZ and it makes the stops this offense”. Heck, Jackson had 500+ yards of offense last night. They moved the ball just fine.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If he isn’t a HOFer it’s only because the people who write about the NFL and vote on the HOF simply don’t care about guards. Yanda was dominant for a long time.
timschochet
Footballguy
Maybe he’s great, maybe he’s overrated, maybe he just had a bad game, maybe he’ll never be great. I’m not a good enough QB evaluator to judge.
But when I hear stuff like “mental ineptitude” that sounds like racism to me.
But when I hear stuff like “mental ineptitude” that sounds like racism to me.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Yea but the defensive formula is a bend but don't break philosophy so the team will get their yds. And I think discipline is much more important than personnel when trying to contain the RPO.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
NFL isn’t that great of a product right now imo. Without fantasy, I doubt I would watch many games. All the penalties and replays and commercials are ridiculous.
That's nice. They aren't drafting a RB in round 1, it makes zero sense, but I won't waste any more time trying to convince you otherwise (especially in this thread).
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
You need to have big strong DTs that can stuff runs and really athletic linebackers. If your linebackers don’t have speed, good luck keeping edge contain on Lamar. And if your DTs can’t stuff the run inside, good luck keeping Ingram from running wild inside. Oh, and you’d better have a free safety than can shut down the deep ball.
CalBear
Footballguy
Yes, there have only been 34 seasons with 36+ passing TDs, but 20 of them have been in the past decade, so we've averaged 2 per year since 2010. And most of the people on the list have been on it more than once (Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Luck).
The league has changed. Unless we have a new change in rules or philosophies, we can expect that the top QBs are going to be throwing for 35+ TDs repeatedly in their careers. And there are 61 instances of 30+ TD since 2010, so over 6 QBs per year get to at least that level.
I'd bet on Jackson being among the six best passing QBs going forward, and the #1 rushing QB.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
Malhomes didn't regress though. He was hurt. In games he was completely healthy his numbers were all better than last season.
Here's things we know :
Lamar Jackson lead the league in td passes this year
Lamar Jackson ran for more yards this year than any qbs ever have
Lamar Jackson had a bad game
Let's all take a moment to simmer down.
Todem
Footballguy
No problem Joe.
I just found it incredibly reactive and short sighted. But you are right.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
CalBear
Footballguy
Not to mention he hit one of his receivers in the chest on what would have been a TD if the dude had bothered to look for the ball.IHEARTFF said:
The pass to Edwards on the INT was not perfect but it was pretty good. If Edwards catches it they're in the red zone. The game would have been totally different if the Ravens got the lead early.
He needs to tighten up his spirals. He could use one actually good receiver. Other than that I don't see any reason to expect he's not going to be in the conversation for the best QB in the league for years to come.
Todem
Footballguy
Mahomes
WIlson
Jackson
Watson
These are your elite juggernaut QB’s moving forward IMO. All have great aspects to their game. All exciting to watch. All can extend the play better than most. All young. And all have weapons around them.
I happen to think Josh Allen can keep developing and join this class soon. He needs a true #1 (John Brown really is better suited to be a #2 WR). And he needs to continue his improvement in the accuracy department. But he is highly athletic, can extend plays and I love his composure. He took a big step in year two IMO. I know he has a bunch of detractors, but he has the goods long term IMO. Bills fans should be happy they have a QB to develop and build around.
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
Here's a guy who should be a wr and not a qb. Allen can't hit the broad side of a barn most throws and Jackson is getting critiqued because he's an exceptional runner.
Switch melanin between the two and we're talking about how amazing it is that Lamar was able to make so many plays with how little help he got from his receivers (something people say about Josh btw).
Todem
Footballguy
Lamar Jackson is a good passer (Year 2 he had 66% accuracy a 3% improvement from year 1). And he can become great. He is so young. Josh Allen....again accuracy is an issue.....now. He is still very young and can develop. He just needs to be 61-62%....he can get there. He was 58.8% in year 2. He made almost a 3% improvement from year 1.
I mean for his career Dan Marino...whom I consider one of the very best to ever play the position had a 59.4% completion percentage (the Jimmy Years hurt him).
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Tau837
Footballguy
He has been selected 1st team All Pro 2 times and 2nd team All Pro 5 times. That shows he was/is a great player. That does not show he is a HOFer.GroveDiesel said:
PFR has a metric they named HOF Monitor. It is imperfect for sure, but it has Yanda at 63.58, with the average HOF guard at 102.29.
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Thunderlips
Footballguy
Who is REALLY critiquing the MVP of the league Jackson because of being an exceptional runner and a very, very good QB...all at the age of 22?
I think BAL as a whole is getting critiqued (and rightfully so) because they (as the number 1) rolled over and got abused in their own house (by the number 6)....with a little bit of "extra" being thrown on because for the past 12 weeks a good portion of the football media has been on BAL's sack and some of their fans have been a little more insufferable than usual.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I haven’t looked at how they determine that number for guards, but I have a hard time believing that you can create a good easily measurable metric with data available for guards.He has been selected 1st team All Pro 2 times and 2nd team All Pro 5 times. That shows he was/is a great player. That does not show he is a HOFer.
PFR has a metric they named HOF Monitor. It is imperfect for sure, but it has Yanda at 63.58, with the average HOF guard at 102.29.
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't disagree about the challenge of building metrics to measure OL play, but I posted the average HOF guard score in the same metric, and Yanda is not close to it, although one component of the metric is Approximate Value, which only goes back to 1950. HOF Monitor is described here.
There are currently 20 guards in the HOF. 15 of them have more than 2 1st team All Pro selections. 2 of the other 5 played in the 20s-40s, and I'm really not sure how to compare across such different eras. The best comparison is probably Will Shields. He also had 2 1st team All Pro selections and 5 2nd team All Pro selections. But the offenses Shields played in were more successful, which boosts his AV, which, in turn, boosts his HOF Monitor score to 87, much higher than Yanda.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Sorry, but having watched 4 years of Kaepernick/Roman there's nothing here schematically I haven't seen before. Jackson is a much more talented runner and a better touch passer than Kaepernick for sure, but the system eventually gets figured out... it always does. Maybe they can get Jackson some bigger Wrs w/ large catch radiuses, but this year will likely be the easiest time he'll have running it.Bracie Smathers said:
chinawildman
Footballguy
I mean are the Titans THAT special on defense? Looked to me NOT trying to shoot the gaps to tackle him, but instead just keeping a spy in front of him at all times and taking good angles (even if it meant giving up a 4 yd run) seemed more important than athleticism. The spy always cheated towards the sideline and used that to his advantage. Jackson is ultimately a QB and doesn't wanna cut it back into the teeth of the defense to get smacked for a few extra yds.The Titans were perfectly content to give Jackson 100 yds rushing, so long as it took him 20+ times to get there. I suspect having Jackson run it 20 times a game for 5 YPC isn't ideal for the Ravens either.GroveDiesel said:
And no you don't need a fast FS to shut down the deep ball their deep plays are all corner/seam routes by the TEs.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
If this scheme isn't thoughtful and original, why does it take defenses a year and half to "figure it out"? Your logic is a catch 22.
He's only 20 couple. He made a few mistakes, but he'll improve. This offense with Lamar Jackson is here to stay though, I'm pretty sure.
chinawildman
Footballguy
Like I said, Jackson is a much more talented runner and has his own unique tendencies so he will to some degree overcome schemes to stop him. Just because an offensive system gets "figured out" doesn't mean its no longer useful... it just means it grows less efficient over time. The Roman system was in SF for 4 years, but it never got better than that first year. If Jackson doesn't improve on his outside passing, I suspect you'll see that whole scenario play out again.
Yea he will probably get better, but his production may not as he'll have to work a lot harder to earn it going forward.
The_Man
Footballguy
What does getting named first team Team of the Decade do to a Guard's chances? If the NFL does what it has in the past, they'll be announcing the 2010s Team of the Decade before the Super Bowl and my guess is Yanda is named First Team.
Looking back from the 80s through the 00s, it is interesting to see that neither First Team Guard of the 00s - Faneca and Hutchinson - are in yet, though it looks like Faneca gets the nod this year. The 90s First Team Guards (Matthews and McDaniel) are in, as are the 80s (Hannah and Grimm). And the 00s Second Team Guards (Allen and Shields) are in .
I'd also say that being the face of the O Line that just destroyed the all-time NFL season rushing record will give Yanda's candidacy a boost. Also if he retires this year, not a lot of other strong HOF candidates in his class. Only ones I can think of potentially are Gore and Fitzgerald (if they retire), Witten and Suggs.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Scheme + unique player.
Vick was a unique talent but not the passer (52.6% completion never more than 2,936 passing yards and high of 21 passing TDs in a single season) of Lamar (66.1% completion, 36 passing TDs, 3,127 passing yards this past year). Kap wasn't as good of a passer (59.8% career completions, never more than 21 TDs in a season high over 600 rushing yards in any season) as Lamar. Kap caught teams off guard but they adjusted, that has not happened with Lamar.
In 2018 after 8 games, the Ravens switched from Flacco to Lamar. At that time the Ravens ranked 31st in the league in rushing. Lamar started the final 8 games and they finished 2nd in rushing. People said that NFL defenses would figure out the scheme like Kap and the pistol.
I noted the league had never seen anything like it before because of the commitment to the scheme. The entire organization bought into and built for the scheme.
The NFL has been trending to 11 personnel (69% of the time in 3WR) groupings. Baltimore ran 3 wides 48% of the time. The NFL have been building teams on the passing game looking for chunk plays. Copycat league, Lamar is a unique player, teams don't build an offense around one unique player/scheme, Bill Polian wanted to make him a WR, yadda yadda yadds. Point is the Ravens went in a diametrically opposite direction to the rest of the league.
That is what I saw and was eager to see if NFL defenses could adjust. They couldn't adjust
He'll get in. Guards aren't celebrities so he'll probably have to get the right timing, but he'll get in.
7 pro bowls, 2 all pros, and only 23.5 sacks allowed in 13 years. The latter is great in and of itself. I only know of Quinton Spain as having a chance at besting that and that's because he's on an all time great phenomenal pace of 1 sack per year.
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't know if it literally affects their chances or if it is just an indicator of quality of their other qualifications. Comments on candidates:
- I would say Zack Martin is definitely a 1st team All Decade guard ahead of all others.
- I think Quenton Nelson is better than Yanda and arguably the best guard in the NFL, but he only played 2 seasons in the decade 2010-2019, so the timing of his entry to the NFL doesn't set him up well to make an All Decade team using those years.
- Jahri Evans has more 1st team All Pro selections in the decade than Yanda, and a better HOF resume overall.
- I may have missed others (e.g., @Bri mentioned Spain).
The_Man
Footballguy
It literally impacts the tracking - from the website:
The base formula uses weighted Approximate Value (which is 100% of the player's peak year, 95% of their second-best year, 90% of their third-best, and so on) as a starting point. Bonuses are added for Pro Football Hall of Fame All-Decade selections, MVP awards, Defensive Player of the Year awards, first-team AP All-Pro selections, championships and Pro Bowls, in descending weights
wgoldsph
Footballguy
You're also forgetting Lamar is younger than the qbs coming out for this draft. He'll improve as a pocket passer as he runs less in the coming seasons to protect his body, in turn making the times he does run with it more effective as teams will have to do more to account for passes outside.
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