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[DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

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Lamar Jackson completed 12-of-22 passes for a career-high 204 yards and one touchdown, adding 13 carries for 39 yards in Baltimore's impressive Week 16 upset victory over the Chargers.

The Ravens continued their newfound offensive approach with Jackson under center, rushing 35 times on a keep-away 31:25 time of possession. The rookie's career-high 204 yards were simply a plus, 68 of them occurring on one beautiful downfield touchdown strike to fellow rookie TE Mark Andrews. Now facing a must-win situation against the Browns next week, Jackson will again be a high-floor low-end QB1 with an exciting ceiling in the team's final regular season game.

Dec 22 - 11:55 PM

 

Edited by Faust

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31 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

The high floor I can agree with, but in what leagues is this guy a QB1, low end or otherwise?  24 teamers?

In my dynasty league from week 11 to week 15, he's #9.  He might go down slightly based on week 16.

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That throw to Andrews was a dime. He had a similar touch throw dropped in over a LB in the first half. Still very raw and he’ll have a couple “how is this guy an NFL qb” throws every game but the impressive throws as well at the ones that are merely adequate are happening more frequently.

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5 hours ago, biju said:

In my dynasty league from week 11 to week 15, he's #9.  He might go down slightly based on week 16.

In my 2 leagues, he is #12 and #11 in ppg from weeks 11-15, and he should drop in both based on week 16. I don't see him as a QB1, not even low end. He is a high QB2, which may be valuable, depending on league parameters, roster situation, etc.

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6 hours ago, biju said:

In my dynasty league from week 11 to week 15, he's #9.  He might go down slightly based on week 16.

 

QB16 in our, ppg, if you count week 16.   He’s pretty much the definition of high floor/low ceiling.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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53 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

QB16 in our, ppg, if you count week 16.   He’s pretty much the definition of high floor/low ceiling.

 

.

In other words, he's Joe Flacco but younger and with legs.

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31 minutes ago, dickey moe said:

In other words, he's Joe Flacco but younger and with legs.

Yeah but the guy can get Tucker in FG range a heck of a lot better and as long as that D is strong, Tucker will be at the top.

Edited by lod001

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On ‎12‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 11:53 AM, dickey moe said:

In other words, he's Joe Flacco but younger and with legs.

Ouch. Why you wanna say mean things like that? ;)

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On 1/1/2019 at 1:43 PM, Faust said:

Believe that: Lamar Jackson transforms doubts to division title

Lamar Jackson transforms doubts to division title

Quote

 

...Replacing a Super Bowl-winning quarterback with a rookie one typically signals rebuilding. Instead, Lamar Jackson became the focal point of a retooling for the Ravens, who have won six of his seven starts to capture the AFC North title.

...Jackson now finds himself in the AFC playoffs with a quarterback field that features a five-time Super Bowl champion (Tom Brady), a frontrunner for NFL MVP (Patrick Mahomes), an eight-time Pro Bowl passer (Philip Rivers), a top candidate for comeback player of the year (Andrew Luck) and the only player ever to throw for more than 4,000 yards with 25 touchdowns and rush for 500 yards and five touchdowns (Deshaun Watson).

Unlike those quarterbacks, the Ravens' success lies in how Jackson fits as their quarterback. He's part of the NFL's most dominant rushing attack, which keeps the No. 1 defense fresh. Both sides of the ball feed off each other.

Over the past seven weeks, he ranks No. 7 in the NFL with 556 yards rushing. In Sunday's 26-24 win over the Browns, Jackson scored two touchdowns and could have had two more if he had broken the plane on a goal-line leap and didn't have a 33-yard score negated by a questionable Maxx Williams holding penalty.

"Until you are on the field and see how quick Lamar Jackson is, and understand his ability to make plays and make some people miss out in space," Browns coach Gregg Williams said. "We had the space populated at times. We just didn’t make the plays."

 

The NFL hasn't seen anything like the Ravens rushing attack. The modern era has been so heavily weighted to stopping the pass that teams may not be constructed to stop this attack.  Since Lamar has taken over and that offense has been installed no-one has been able to stop them.

The Chargers have Derwin and that should help but it would have been fun to see what the Texans could do to slow them down since they have the best run-D in the league.

--------------------------------

Michael David Smith‏Verified account @MichaelDavSmith

Texans' run defense was outstanding this season. Allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per carry, a league-low 3 runs of 20 yards or longer and a league-low 19.7% first down rate.

9:17 AM - 1 Jan 2019

---------------------------------

Luke Jones‏ @BaltimoreLuke

Terrell Suggs: "I’m usually not impressed with rookies, but you saw two rookies out there today that showed that this is their league. It was impressive. Everybody knows the history of football in Cleveland & that guy is going to be something for years to come." #Ravens #Browns

7:41 PM - 30 Dec 2018

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:53 PM, Bracie Smathers said:

The NFL hasn't seen anything like the Ravens rushing attack. The modern era has been so heavily weighted to stopping the pass that teams may not be constructed to stop this attack.  Since Lamar has taken over and that offense has been installed no-one has been able to stop them.

The Chargers have Derwin and that should help but it would have been fun to see what the Texans could do to slow them down since they have the best run-D in the league.

The Chargers will be the first team to face this version of the Baltimore offense twice. I expect that will be a big help to them in this matchup.

Regarding the bolded, the Chargers defense played well in the first matchup other than the long TD pass to Andrews... they held BAL to its lowest offensive point total (16), lowest rushing yardage, and second lowest total yardage within the 7 games Jackson started.

Unfortunately, the Chargers have lost starting LB Jatavis Brown since the first meeting, the 3rd starting LB they have lost to season ending injury this season.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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In his 7 starts, Lamar has rushed for 556 yards, 79.4 per game. Projected over a full 16-game season, that's 1,270 yards which would have been third in the NFL this season.

More impressive is doing that for Gus Edwards during Lamar's 7 games as starting QB. 654 yards, which is 93.4 per game, projecting to 1,495 over a full-16 game season.

Finally, add in Kenneth Dixon. He has 289 yards in his 5 games back from IR with Lamar at QB, averaging 57.8 yards per game. That projects to 925 yards in 16 games.

3,700 yards rushing from a QB and 2 RBs? I agree it's probably not sustainable in the long term. But in the short term, it's a lot for opposing teams to handle this year. 

I will also note that Lamar's current career QB rating is higher than Flacco's, and his current season rating (same as his career, obviously) is higher than any Flacco season since 2014. He hasn't thrown a pick in 5.5 games, since the second quarter vs. Oakland back on Nov. 25.

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Chargers held Lamar to his lowest rushing output to date and they get another look and they have a defense constructed to slow the Ravens rushing attack down but they are dealing with injuries at LB and 'may' be without a key piece on their D-Line.

Chargers' defense ready for a second helping of Lamar Jackson

Quote

 

...The Chargers held the dynamic rookie quarterback to 39 rushing yards -- his lowest as a starter -- and the run-first Baltimore offense to 159 total rushing yards under the guidance of Jackson in the first matchup.

..."They're going to run it right at us," Chargers safety Derwin James said. "We know that, and we have to be ready to play, ready to get off blocks."

James played against Jackson three times in college while at Florida State, so he knew what to expect going into the first contest against the Ravens.

...The Chargers also went with speed over size to help defend Baltimore's rushing attack. The Chargers played at least six defensive backs on 48 of the 60 (80 percent) defensive plays against the Ravens in Week 16.

On the season, the Chargers have played at least six defensive backs a league-high 584 defensive snaps, ...

Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said one of the reasons his defense has been successful playing smaller personnel is because of the defensive line's versatility.

However, that versatility could take a hit with the uncertain availability of defensive tackle Brandon Mebane. The Cal product has been dealing with his daughter Makenna being in prenatal intensive care in Omaha, Nebraska, battling a defective heart condition.

Mebane's daughter is being treated at Children's Hospital of Omaha, and he has missed the past two days of practice.

The Chargers also are thin at linebacker, with starters Jatavis Brown (ankle), Denzel Perryman(knee) and Kyzir White (knee) all out for the season due to injuries.

"The way we're built now with some of the injuries taking place and how we shuffle around, we probably have more speed on the field," Bradley said. "So whenever you have more speed, it's going to appear faster, too, but we put a lot of strain on our defensive line now.

"When you have two lighter linebackers that are playing for us like we have now, you have to stress somebody. We put a lot of stress on the D-line because of it. Some of the techniques that we asked them to play, just to slow down some of the run game that we've been seeing."

 

I'm really looking forward to this game to see what Lamar will do.

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51 minutes ago, Bracie Smathers said:

Chargers held Lamar to his lowest rushing output to date and they get another look and they have a defense constructed to slow the Ravens rushing attack down but they are dealing with injuries at LB and 'may' be without a key piece on their D-Line.

Chargers' defense ready for a second helping of Lamar Jackson

I'm really looking forward to this game to see what Lamar will do.

It is somewhat misleading to call LBs Brown, Perryman, and White starters. To open the season, Perryman was the starter at MLB and White was the starter at WLB. White got injured early, at which point Brown became the starter at WLB. Once Perryman got injured, Brown split time between MLB and WLB. It definitely hurts to have a concentration of injuries in one position group, though.

IMO the real key to this game isn't Jackson and the Ravens offense against the Chargers defense, it is the Chargers offense against the Ravens defense.

I am expecting a much better showing from the Chargers and expect them to win by 10+.

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I ultimately don't think a run first QB is sustainable in this league mostly because they haven't have sustained success. Even as a Steelers fan, I think it was be exciting to watch him do something this year and during his career. Hope he gets on that horse this weekend, and keeps those big running plays coming!

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21 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I am expecting a much better showing from the Chargers and expect them to win by 10+.

Gosh, I have no idea about this game.  

Phil had his worst game of the year against the Raven defense and Lamar had his worst rushing game but best passing game yet Gus Edwards did well inside.

Could come down to one big play.

I have a gut feeling it will be a tight game unless Lamar gets a case of the yips.

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I don't think the Chargers' O line matches up well vs the Ravens' D. Phil is going to have to get rid of a lot of passes quick, and the Baltimore DBs are pretty good in press coverage. It's also supposed to be kind of breezy which doesn't necessarily help Rivers with his flutter balls. 

Will be interesting to see how Baltimore adjusts to what LA and Cleveland did late in games, which was to shift their D line right before the snap and close down holes where the play was intended to go. This is going to be the first time the Ravens have to make some offensive adjustments since they went with Lamar. I could see them trying to break the huddle quicker and forcing the D line to shift with enough time for the O line to change their blocking schemes. It will be interesting if they give Lamar the responsibility of making some calls at the line, which they haven't done so far. 

I'm going to say it's a low-scoring game, and the Ravens will grind it out if they don't turn the ball over - Lamar hasn't thrown a pick in 5.5 games, but he's put the ball on the ground at least once in every start, and more than in once in about half his games.

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On 1/5/2019 at 10:20 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

Gosh, I have no idea about this game.  

Phil had his worst game of the year against the Raven defense and Lamar had his worst rushing game but best passing game yet Gus Edwards did well inside.

Could come down to one big play.

I have a gut feeling it will be a tight game unless Lamar gets a case of the yips.

Lamar looked a touch 'yippy' in the first half.

Lets see if he settles down this half.

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Gotta keep Jackson around. He's capable of fooling 1/2 the NFL DCs and getting my main man, Tucker in FG range. Who cares that you have ZERO chance of ever making a deep run in the playoffs.

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Clearly it's a lack of a running rame....no wait it's a bad OL....could be coaching.....no it's lack of playmaking WRs. Once they fix all those problems, Jackson will start putting up HUGE passing #s.

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On 1/4/2019 at 12:21 PM, Just Win Baby said:

I am expecting a much better showing from the Chargers and expect them to win by 10+.

Wrong about 10+, although that was primarily because the Chargers went into prevent defense once they went up by 20. But, as expected, the Chargers played much better and got the win.

More important to this thread, Jackson did not look like a starting caliber NFL QB in this game. He has a long way to go IMO. I think it is more likely than not that he is not starting in the NFL 4 years from now.

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Lamar Jackson completed 14-of-29 passes for 194 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception and rushed nine times for 54 yards with three fumbles (one lost) in the Ravens' Wild Card loss to the Chargers.

Struggling to deal with pressure and unable to throw accurate passes most of the day, Jackson flashed the playmaking ability which makes him so interesting late in the loss. His touchdown pass to Michael Crabtree was a nice throw down the sideline, he created a big play to Kenneth Dixon on the next drive by staying alive for several seconds in the backfield, and he did the same on a fourth-down touchdown to Crabtree a few plays later. Of course, he fumbled three times including the game-sealer, threw an interception, and failed to make anything happen on offense before those late drives. After rushing for 556 yards and four touchdowns along with 1,114 yards and five more scores through the air in seven starts, Jackson’s playmaking ability is undeniable, but he has to improve as a passer and work on his ball security to take the next step in 2019. That said, his rushing ability alone is enough to make him an upside QB1 in fantasy drafts next summer.

Jan 6 - 4:25 PM

 

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Wrong about 10+, although that was primarily because the Chargers went into prevent defense once they went up by 20. But, as expected, the Chargers played much better and got the win.

More important to this thread, Jackson did not look like a starting caliber NFL QB in this game. He has a long way to go IMO. I think it is more likely than not that he is not starting in the NFL 4 years from now.

I agree with this.  Running like he does is non sustainable as an NFL QB, and his passing is, to put it nicely, erratic.  So many short and mid-range throws were way off target.  

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Really really bad showing today. But let’s face it the OL was awful missing block after block and not getting any push against a small Chargers front. And wr group really isn’t intimidating in the least. The schemes seemed really stupid, playing right into the Chargers strengths and not exploiting their weaknesses.

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Good for the Ravens for making the changes they needed to get to the playoffs this year. 

Miller will need to make a lot of progress to be an NFL caliber QB.

 

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2 hours ago, dickey moe said:

Do Ravens fans have faith in this guy?

Smart Raven's fans knew he was a project QB and had low expectations for him this year. I wouldn't have been surprised if he sat this whole season and I'm pleasantly surprised with some of what he achieved. People are really quick to write off the youngest ever QB to start a playoff game.

People compare him to Kaep which I think is a really bad comparison. Kaep couldn't read defenses. He often was a one read or run qb. Jackson by all accounts is great at reading defenses but struggles fitting the ball into small windows or even hitting open players. As a passer he's more like Teddy Bridgewater, where you aren't sure he can make all the throws so you have to simplify the passing offense, not because he doesn't understand it but because he can't make the throws Rodgers/Mahonnes can make.

He's kinda a unique player. What if Christen Ponder was the fastest player on the field? Smart decisions but bad mechanics and accuracy. I guess we will see if they can fix his throwing motions in the offseason. 

Edited by Wise Old Owl
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17 hours ago, lod001 said:

He's capable of fooling 1/2 the NFL DCs

Not any more.  

Gus Bradley game plan solved the Raven rushing attack that had been rolling.

The Charger Changeup

Quote

...Lots to unpack after this game. It starts with that defensive plan. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley threw the changeup of the NFL season at Baltimore, making a dominant run game feeble with a seven-defensive-back alignment from the first snap of the game to the last. When Bradley first discussed it with coach Anthony Lynn early in the week, Lynn said, “Are we insane, or what?” Nope. It worked. The Chargers (13-4) flummoxed Baltimore with 58 snaps (out of 59) of seven-DB defense.

Someone would have stumbled upon this but now the cat is out of the bag.

Greg Williams gave up nearly 300 yards on the ground last week with a 4--6 Bear front but then changed in the second half by making last second shifts and pinching the inside so that left the edges exposed to speed of Lamar.

Gus Bradley was able to put more players with speed on the field.

It worked.

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10 hours ago, Wise Old Owl said:

Jackson by all accounts is great at reading defenses but struggles fitting the ball into small windows or even hitting open players. As a passer he's more like Teddy Bridgewater, where you aren't sure he can make all the throws so you have to simplify the passing offense

These things are kind of important, aren't they? How likely is it that he can master these necessary skills?

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You are either accurate or you are not. There's no magic potion that you drink and become an accurate passer.

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Wouldn't read too much into 2018 Lamar Jackson. He came in as a "project" and the team greatly over-achieved. As Steeler mentioned above, great job by Ravens coaching staff to twist the offense into something Jackson could run... I'm sure they were surprised by their own success. DC's catch up fast however, and yesterday's 3-Safety defense may be the blueprint for stopping this... and if so, 2018 is basically a 1-off, throw away.

Now we'll start to find out if Jackson can truly play the position of QB.

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1 hour ago, lod001 said:

You are either accurate or you are not. There's no magic potion that you drink and become an accurate passer.

You raise a good question... is it possible to become an accurate passer?

Didn't Mike Vick have accuracy issues early on. Seemed to chuck it very well from the pocket later in his (2nd) career.

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3 hours ago, lod001 said:

You are either accurate or you are not. There's no magic potion that you drink and become an accurate passer.

In fairness, accuracy can certainly be influenced by footwork and mechanics, so it can theoretically be improved by improving those things. That said, I posted a question about this earlier in the thread, and no one was really able to provide an example that supports the idea that Jackson can overcome his accuracy issues to become a good NFL QB. It is possible that was because of the somewhat arbitrary completion percentage threshold I used.

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On 11/11/2018 at 11:55 AM, Just Win Baby said:

Jackson had a career completion percentage in college of 57.0%, and his best season was his last, at 59.1%. In the current passing era, say the last 15-20 years or so, have there been any QBs who were sub-60% passers in college who ended up being "very good" NFL QBs?

Same issue applies to Josh Allen (career 56.2%).

I don't know the answer to this question, so it isn't a loaded question. Jake Locker (54.0), Tyrod Taylor (57.2), Trevor Siemian (58.9), and Jacoby Brissett (59.5) all fit the criteria, and none are/were good NFL passers. It's a small sample size, and Jackson is more athletic and was drafted higher than most of these guys, so it probably doesn't mean much, though I seem to recall Football Outsiders having done some work to show that college completion percentage is among the strongest predictors of NFL QB success.

I did find this article where the author breaks down a lot of QB and their college completion percentage compared to pro level completion percentage.

Quote

Note that two guys with huge improvements in completion % in the NFL were horrible at completing passes in college - Kyle Boller and Josh McCown. Other notable QBs who have shown dramatic improvement in the completion % in the NFL are Drew Brees, Tyrod Taylor, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. It should be noted that Wilson was deadly accurate in his final year in college, completing more than 70 percent of this passes.

On the flip side, you have guys who were in very “completion-friendly” systems in college who were unable to sustain that level of completion % in the NFL. These guys include Geno Smith, Andrew Luck, Mark Sanchez, Byron Leftwich, Cam Newton and Tim Tebow (not shown in the table - he is negative 18.5% - hitting 66.4% in college and 47.9% in the NFL).

There are some outside factors that affect a stat like completion percentage that are not necessarily related to the QB ability.

Scheme can play a big part in this because the higher the number of low adot leads to higher completion percentage and the opposite as well. The talent level of the competition can be significant here as well.

The chart shows a fairly normal distribution of players who improved their completion percentage in the pros and players who didn't.

As far as if a QB can improve their accuracy in the pros I think it is obvious that they can. It doesn't mean that they will, but they certainly can. That is why players practice.

FWIW Jacksons completion percentage of 58.2% is an improvement of his career college completion percentage of 57%

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Coach John Harbaugh said he expects Lamar Jackson to "throw a lot" this offseason.

Jackson needs to throw more than he ever has in an offseason. There were concerns about his ability to function as a passer in the NFL when he came out of Louisville, but many didn't expect it to be as bad as it was in year one. Jackson made the difficult throws look impossible and the easy ones a chore to complete. The Ravens changed their philosophy and became the most run-heavy offense in the league after Jackson took over under center, relying solely on ball control and their defense. It worked to earn a playoff berth, but once they fell behind to the Chargers in the Wild Card game, there wasn't much of a prayer of a comeback due to Jackson's inability to make plays through the air. Jackson is expected to work with a throwing coach.

Source: Jeff Zrebiec on Twitter 

Jan 25 - 11:30 AM

 

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When a QB can plant that seed....will he run/pass?....that puts a lot of stress on any defense.  A totally different game than facing guys like Eli, Rivers, Brady, you know where they will be.

I do see the game heading in the Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson direction, that multi talented guy who can do more things, more stress on a defense.

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On 1/27/2019 at 12:14 PM, ZenoRazon said:

When a QB can plant that seed....will he run/pass?....that puts a lot of stress on any defense.  A totally different game than facing guys like Eli, Rivers, Brady, you know where they will be.

I do see the game heading in the Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson direction, that multi talented guy who can do more things, more stress on a defense.

 

Wait.  You’re over in the Murray thread saying he can’t survive the NFL.  And what other skills beyond running does Jackson have that qualifies his game as possessing multiple threats?

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6 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Wait.  You’re over in the Murray thread saying he can’t survive the NFL.  And what other skills beyond running does Jackson have that qualifies his game as possessing multiple threats?

You missed the point.

That mobile cat, the guy who can extent plays, evade a pass rush, scoot for 20 is where things are heading, not saying everyone makes it.

Google...Kyler Murray,  what is the first thing ya read.....his size.....why?

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6 minutes ago, ZenoRazon said:

You missed the point.

That mobile cat, the guy who can extent plays, evade a pass rush, scoot for 20 is where things are heading, not saying everyone makes it.

Google...Kyler Murray,  what is the first thing ya read.....his size.....why?

 

Ummm, the same reason people were saying Mayfield would fail because of his size?  Or why Wilson didn’t get drafted until the 3rd round?You’re the one saying Murray can’t make it because of his size.  Why are you asking me to quailfy your position?  You were wholly dismissive and condescending towards another poster who thought Murray could succeed.

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5 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Ummm, the same reason people were saying Mayfield would fail because of his size?  Or why Wilson didn’t get drafted until the 3rd round?You’re the one saying Murray can’t make it because of his size.  Why are you asking me to quailfy your position?  You were wholly dismissive and condescending towards another poster who thought Murray could succeed.

Bronco, dont even bother responding to him. He is polluting every thread in here and just trying to bait people. Sad thing is the mods are letting him do it. 

Edited by irish eyes

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