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massraider

[DYNASTY] Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

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32 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Yeah, I happen to believe that’s kind of important for QBs.  What does that have anything to do with the comment you posted about Allen changing positions?  Do you think Allen is capable of playing another position at the NFL level like it appears Jackson would be?

Allen’s competition percentage last season was 3% worse than Jackson’s and his yards per attempt were 1.8 yards less. While playing against inferior competition (ACC > MWC)

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21 minutes ago, Yenrub said:

Allen’s competition percentage last season was 3% worse than Jackson’s and his yards per attempt were 1.8 yards less. While playing against inferior competition (ACC > MWC)

Yes, I understand.  I have similar concerns about Allen and his ability to translate his game to the NFL.  It still does not address how Allen would project to another position at the NFL level as it appears Jackson could, and therefore why in the Seven Hells that anyone would bring up that possibility.

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NFL Network's Tom Pelissero has spoken with two scouts who have compared Louisville QB Lamar Jackson to Kordell Stewart.

"Slash," as he became known, was the No. 60 overall pick of the 1995 draft. He played receiver for two seasons before taking over at quarterback his third year in the league. He was used all over the field, never settling in as a franchise quarterback. Commenting on Jackson's comparisons to Michael Vick, Pelissero reports Vick was viewed as a better passer coming out of Virginia Tech. Our guess is that Jackson will be drafted as a pure quarterback, and early on draft weekend, at that.

Source: Tom Pelissero on Twitter 

Feb 22 - 4:04 PM

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4 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Vick himself has said that Jackson is much further along in his development as a passer than Vick was coming out of college.

Sure, and the college and NFL passing offenses (and defenses) are a lot more complex now than when Vick entered the draft in 2001. It can be true that Jackson is further developed as a passer than Vick was in 2001 and also true that he is not a good NFL QB prospect in 2018.

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6 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Sure, and the college and NFL passing offenses (and defenses) are a lot more complex now than when Vick entered the draft in 2001. It can be true that Jackson is further developed as a passer than Vick was in 2001 and also true that he is not a good NFL QB prospect in 2018.

 

Jackson also ran a spread offense in college - an offense that runs up crazy successful passing stats, yet he still never surpassed 60% completions.  It’s also an offense that does not have a good track record for QB success at the next level.  Given the way he delivers the football combined with the above, there’s some very real red flags on him being a NFL QB.

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8 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Sure, and the college and NFL passing offenses (and defenses) are a lot more complex now than when Vick entered the draft in 2001.

Are they?

Seems to me young QBs are coming in and starting, and playing well, more than ever before.

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not sure how to embed a tweet here, but regardless:

Graham Barfield✔@GrahamBarfield

Potential 2018 First Round QBs Completion Percentage (in 2017), Adjusted For Dropped Passes:

Mayfield - 77.6%
Rudolph - 71.3%
Rosen - 70.3%
Jackson - 67.7%
Darnold - 67%
Allen - 61.1%

CFB Average: 65.5%

9:41 AM - Feb 7, 2018

 

do with that what you choose.

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Could someone please provide the technical definition of a dropped pass for which the stats are accumulated?  I’m getting the feeling that all dropped passes counted are going against the WRs and that may not be the case.

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

Go ahead. Make excuses.  He still missed a lot all on his own, and comically badly at times.

If he completed 1% more, he'd be a 60% guy, and it wouldn't be any issue. His receivers dropped 12% of his throws. 

Seems relevant. 

By the way, no one said he never missed.

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9 minutes ago, massraider said:

If he completed 1% more, he'd be a 60% guy, and it wouldn't be any issue. His receivers dropped 12% of his throws. 

Seems relevant. 

By the way, no one said he never missed.

Dropped 6% then 8% now 12%.  This is like a fish story.  Pretty soon it will be 42% and he would have completed 101% of his passes thrown if it weren’t for his crappy WRs.  Is a 75 mph fastball to a receiver 3 yds away considered a drop? 

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5 hours ago, massraider said:

We've reached the end of the rational talk. Copy that

 

Is this your “I’m taking my ball and going home” concession?

 

In any case, I’m pretty much finished in this thread too.  I’m seeing too many flaws in his game to be a NFL level passer, but who knows - maybe he’ll turn out great.  Only time will tell for sure.  

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23 hours ago, massraider said:

Seems to me young QBs are coming in and starting, and playing well, more than ever before.

Are they? I suppose it depends on one's definition of 'young' and "playing well" as to how to quantify this. 57 QBs have been drafted in the past 5 years:

2017    1    2    Mitch Trubisky
2017    1    10    Patrick Mahomes
2017    1    12    Deshaun Watson
2017    2    52    DeShone Kizer
2017    3    87    Davis Webb
2017    3    104    C.J. Beathard
2017    4    135    Joshua Dobbs
2017    5    171    Nathan Peterman
2017    6    215    Brad Kaaya
2017    7    253    Chad Kelly
2016    1    1    Jared Goff
2016    1    2    Carson Wentz

2016    1    26    Paxton Lynch
2016    2    51    Christian Hackenberg
2016    3    91    Jacoby Brissett
2016    3    93    Cody Kessler
2016    4    100    Connor Cook
2016    4    135    Dak Prescott
2016    4    139    Cardale Jones
2016    5    162    Kevin Hogan
2016    6    187    Nate Sudfeld
2016    6    191    Jake Rudock
2016    6    201    Brandon Allen
2016    6    207    Jeff Driskel
2016    7    223    Brandon Doughty
2015    1    1    Jameis Winston
2015    1    2    Marcus Mariota

2015    3    75    Garrett Grayson
2015    3    89    Sean Mannion
2015    4    103    Bryce Petty
2015    5    147    Brett Hundley
2015    7    250    Trevor Siemian
2014    1    3    Blake Bortles
2014    1    22    Johnny Manziel
2014    1    32    Teddy Bridgewater
2014    2    36    Derek Carr
2014    2    62    Jimmy Garoppolo

2014    4    120    Logan Thomas
2014    4    135    Tom Savage
2014    5    163    Aaron Murray
2014    5    164    A.J. McCarron
2014    6    178    Zach Mettenberger
2014    6    183    David Fales
2014    6    194    Keith Wenning
2014    6    213    Tajh Boyd
2014    6    214    Garrett Gilbert
2013    1    16    EJ Manuel
2013    2    39    Geno Smith
2013    3    73    Mike Glennon
2013    4    98    Matt Barkley
2013    4    110    Ryan Nassib
2013    4    112    Tyler Wilson
2013    4    115    Landry Jones
2013    7    221    Brad Sorensen
2013    7    234    Zac Dysert
2013    7    237    B.J. Daniels
2013    7    249    Sean Renfree

I bolded the 7 of them that appear today to be long term starting QBs, and the jury is still out on Trubisky and Mahomes. One or both of them will probably join that group once they get more of an opportunity to play. Is 7-9 starters drafted over 5 consecutive drafts "more than ever before"? I'm not sure, but it doesn't seem compelling at face value.

How does Jackson compare to this group? Does he compare well to some of the successful players? The unsuccessful players? I suppose people will say he compares favorably to Watson, but I think Watson was a better passer coming out of college, while Jackson is a better runner. How does he compare to others like Manuel, Geno, Bridgewater, Manziel, Brissett, and Kizer? I'm sure he is a better runner than all of them, how about as a passer?

I also notice that there have been 12 QBs drafted in the first round over that span, and 5 of them appear today to be long term starting QBs, with the jury out on Trubisky and Mahomes. A 50% success rate for now, maybe to increase as high as 58%. Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph, and Allen seem to be in contention for being drafted in the first round this season. If I had to rank them in an order of likelihood of NFL success, I'd rank them in that rough order. How many of them should be expected to be long term NFL starters, and where does that suggest the cutoff line can be drawn?

Finally, as an aside, what an awful QB draft 2013 was. Worst ever?

Edited by Just Win Baby
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Strengths

Elite playmaker with rare ability to hit home runs with his arm or legs. Has experience under center. Arm is lively and can spin it. Delivery devoid of wasted motion. Ball comes out with flick of the wrist reminiscent of Michael Vick. Can drive it with velocity. Pocket poise and pre-snap plan has improved each year. Has improved ability to hold safeties and linebackers with his eyes. Feathery deep ball touch off play fakes. Requirement of full-time spy lightens coverage numbers. Willing to take sack over making haphazard throw. Maestro of improv who is Second City worthy. Scrambling forces cornerbacks to choose between receiver and potential run support. Destroys pursuit angles when he runs. Has open field instincts and elusiveness of elite running back. Understands when his speed can eliminate a tackler and moves attention to the next level of danger. Red-zone juggernaut. Tallied 10 rushing touchdowns of over 40 yards in three seasons.

Weaknesses

Carries spindly legs and a thin base. Slightly built for punishing hits he takes from pocket and as a runner. Must learn to slide. Lackadaisical in setup. Throws with excessively narrow base and stiff front side. Flips it rather than throws it. Makes targets work too hard. Sails throws that can end up in hands of a safety. At times, hesitates to challenge safeties in the seam. Low release point leads to tipped passes. Typically gets through reads 1 and 2 before halting progressions. Pocket awareness has room for improvement. Move accuracy on rollouts and scrambles is poor. Highly inaccurate with throws on the move throughout the 2017 season. Underthrown deep balls allow cornerbacks to play the ball. Lacks touch over the heads of middle linebackers into intermediate pockets. Turnover total still too high.

Draft Projection

Rounds 1-2

NFL Comparison

Michael Vick

Bottom Line

Evaluating Jackson against the NFL standards for the position will cause him to come up short. However, he has rare speed and athleticism and can single-handedly win games. Jackson's accuracy is clearly spotty and teams must decide the level of accuracy they are willing to live with relative to his ability to create explosive plays. Jackson may need to operate in an offense ready to integrate RPOs (run/pass options) along with heavy play-action. Like Deshaun Watson in 2017, Jackson has the ability to counter mental mistakes and turnovers with a high number of explosive, touchdown-making plays. He has star potential, but his success will rest heavily upon his ability to stay healthy.


-Lance Zierlein

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Lamar Jackson is a QB and Polian is just an old-school elderly GM who I like a lot but sometimes he is way off and I wonder if this is just a "gig' for NFL insider and trying to stir up viewers and the public. Seems like a fire starter to me. He is clearly a QB. Now that said. I'm struggling to see an offense or more to the point a head coach and offensive coordinator that would be willing to change their offense to fit what he does best. The NFL is a copycat league and perhaps someone would be willing to do so to run a more college style "RPO" offense. Does he fit the traditional under center drop back offense? I think he could be adequate in that style offense. Louisville runs a sort of pro-style offense. My question would be why would you want to change him? I think if a team drafts him within the first two rounds they need to have the offense fit him and what he does best not have him fit the offense and have him change to fit the offense. Arizona could be the team interested in Jackson. Mike Mcoy has been in Carolina and has seen what a mobile QB who has the ability to throw can do. I understand Cam and Jackson are different but the scheme is one I think would get the best out of Jackson. Cam is not terribly accurate and has a better arm than Jackson but Jackson's arm is better than what people give him credit for. I think it can work and Jackson should be available for the Cards. Jackson could benefit sitting a year and working on his mechanics or even just half a year and this could really help him long term. Imagine Jackson in that dome on that field turf running an offense that uses both his arm and legs. Wow.....Scary stuff if you are an NFL defensive coordinator.  Arizona could draft Jackson and sign a free agent bridge QB to give Jackson some time to develop then unleash the Jackson experience on the NFL. 

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On 2/24/2018 at 10:06 AM, osubuckeyeman said:

Lamar Jackson is a QB and Polian is just an old-school elderly GM who I like a lot but sometimes he is way off and I wonder if this is just a "gig' for NFL insider and trying to stir up viewers and the public. Seems like a fire starter to me. He is clearly a QB. Now that said. I'm struggling to see an offense or more to the point a head coach and offensive coordinator that would be willing to change their offense to fit what he does best. The NFL is a copycat league and perhaps someone would be willing to do so to run a more college style "RPO" offense. Does he fit the traditional under center drop back offense? I think he could be adequate in that style offense. Louisville runs a sort of pro-style offense. My question would be why would you want to change him? I think if a team drafts him within the first two rounds they need to have the offense fit him and what he does best not have him fit the offense and have him change to fit the offense. Arizona could be the team interested in Jackson. Mike Mcoy has been in Carolina and has seen what a mobile QB who has the ability to throw can do. I understand Cam and Jackson are different but the scheme is one I think would get the best out of Jackson. Cam is not terribly accurate and has a better arm than Jackson but Jackson's arm is better than what people give him credit for. I think it can work and Jackson should be available for the Cards. Jackson could benefit sitting a year and working on his mechanics or even just half a year and this could really help him long term. Imagine Jackson in that dome on that field turf running an offense that uses both his arm and legs. Wow.....Scary stuff if you are an NFL defensive coordinator.  Arizona could draft Jackson and sign a free agent bridge QB to give Jackson some time to develop then unleash the Jackson experience on the NFL. 

As a cardinals fan, I support this post.

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2 hours ago, Yenrub said:

Interesting (to me) that he is only 5lbs lighter than Darnold 

I thought the same thing. And at a bit shorter, hard to see how their frame could be a whole lot different.

So I wonder if any perceived difference in frame is attributable to the pads they wear, one or both of them changing weight for the combine, or some other factor entirely.

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7 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

I thought the same thing. And at a bit shorter, hard to see how their frame could be a whole lot different.

So I wonder if any perceived difference in frame is attributable to the pads they wear, one or both of them changing weight for the combine, or some other factor entirely.

Per their weights on ESPN, Jackson added 5 lbs while Darnold added 1 

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Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome told the media Louisville's Lamar Jackson is a QB on the Ravens board.

Jackson was asked to work out at receiver, along with quarterback, by some teams at the NFL Combine. One of those teams clearly is not the Ravens, who might be in the running to add a quarterback this offseason. We are firmly in the camp of letting Jackson develop at quarterback rather than ask him to put more on his plate and spend time at receiver.

Source: John Kryk on Twitter 

Mar 2 - 11:00 AM

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http://www.espn.com/blog/baltimore-ravens/post/_/id/43557/no-change-needed-for-ravens-ozzie-newsome-sees-lamar-jackson-as-qb

"I don't know what the other teams think about him," Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome said Friday at the NFL combine. "But, on our board, he's a quarterback."

...The Ravens probably won't be in line to draft Jackson. Baltimore is contemplating taking a quarterback in the draft, but owner Steve Bisciotti made it clear that the team isn't ready to start thinking about moving on from Joe Flacco.

The expectation is for the Ravens to select a quarterback in the middle rounds. Jackson is projected to be taken in the first or second round.

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On 2/15/2018 at 9:57 AM, Faust said:

Appearing on the Rotoworld Football Podcast, Matt Waldman believes Louisville QB Lamar Jackson is "Michael Vick with a better understanding of the pocket, of his footwork, of his reads and of his decision making."

Waldman adds Jackson has better accuracy than Vick coming out of school.

Hey Matt, not for nothing, but you know what they call Vick with better pocket presence, footwork, and decision-making?

Randall Cunningham.

It's the first comp that came to mind when I watched him single-handedly dismantle UVA in person two years ago. If Randall had been drafted by a coach who had even the very slightest of notions about how to run an offense - never mind develop a young QB - he'd be in the Hall of Fame right now. Oh, and for five (healthy) seasons in a row he posted fantasy finishes of QB1, 1, 2, 1, 2.

Do I think Jackson is the next Cunningham? No, because Randall was the type of 5-sigma athletic freak that I don't expect to see again in my lifetime. But a slightly poor man's Cunningham can still be a wildly valuable asset, in both real-life and fantasy football.

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Mike Mayock's takeaways from Day 2 of NFL Scouting Combine

Excerpt:

Lamar Jackson, Louisville: Mayock raved over Jackson, saying he was the most "spectacular athlete in this draft" who "could be the future of the NFL." In drills, however, Mayock said Jackson was being a little too "careful" with the ball, wishing he'd stop aiming the ball and just "rip it" instead.

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Louisville QB Lamar Jackson's throwing session at the NFL Combine drew mixed reviews from NFL teams, per Walter Football's Charlie Campbell, but Jackson still has staunch supporters in the scouting community.

"Lamar has no idea how to throw with his core and legs," said one NFC scout who specializes in quarterbacks. "He's all arm and wrist action right now, very much like Cam [Newton] but much cleaner delivery. When he gets some serious coaching on driving his body into throws, he could be insane. Completely blank canvas. It's amazing he threw it as well as he did seeing how much work he needs in that aspect alone. There's not a QB coach alive who looked at that and didn't feel as if they could make a very good passer. Old rule: you can fix the feet - not the mind or arm." Jackson's throwing session was up-and-down -- like many quarterback prospects -- but it wasn't catastrophic. Like the scout above, we continue to think that Jackson's accuracy issues are being caused by a correctable mechanical issue. He isn't a plug-and-play starter or a sure thing, but the ceiling is sky high for a team willing to wait and put in the developmental time.

Source: Walter Football 

Mar 4 - 1:34 PM

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