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Fanduel Week 3 (1 Viewer)

NixonMask

Footballguy
Fanduel took Draftkings lead and made their main slate Sunday only now. 

Pricing looks alot harder this week.  No more unreasonably under costed players.  Some that jumped out from my first placeholders:
Carson Palmer 8200
Phillip Rivers 8000
Ryan Tannehill 7400
David Johnson 8400
Melvin Gordon 7100
Jarvis Landry 7000
Jamison Crowder 5000
Dennis Pitta 5000

 
Fanduel took Draftkings lead and made their main slate Sunday only now. 
 
That sucks this week as you see that 53pt o/u sitting there for that Monday night game. 

Looks like that Indy/SD is next up for some high scoring. 

Also, start Miami's D at home against Cleveland if McCown is out. 

 
that 8200 price tag on palmer is fine with me.  Buffalo is ranked 23rd in passing.  Palmer through 2 weeks has 5 TD's, zero INT, and 579 yards passing.  He anchored most of my LU's this weekend.

How jacoby Brisset is $6,200 on fanduel is beyond me...

 
bro1ncos said:
How does this affect anything? Does it change your approach to GPP or cash games?
It doesn't.  One less game means the cut line will be a little more volatile from week to week.

 
that 8200 price tag on palmer is fine with me.  Buffalo is ranked 23rd in passing.  Palmer through 2 weeks has 5 TD's, zero INT, and 579 yards passing.  He anchored most of my LU's this weekend.

How jacoby Brisset is $6,200 on fanduel is beyond me...
Is this just yards against?

I was looking at the scoring against on the stat page and they didn't show up on my top 12 worst D list. (or I misread it)

 
Much tighter prices on FD compared to DK. Doesn't seem like they were able to get Diggs price up tho as he's still super cheap. 

 
that 8200 price tag on palmer is fine with me.  Buffalo is ranked 23rd in passing.  Palmer through 2 weeks has 5 TD's, zero INT, and 579 yards passing.  He anchored most of my LU's this weekend.

How jacoby Brisset is $6,200 on fanduel is beyond me...
6200 for a 3rd string rookie on a short week.  But hey, he was drafted ahead of Dak Prescott this year  

 
KarmaPolice said:
That sucks this week as you see that 53pt o/u sitting there for that Monday night game. 

Looks like that Indy/SD is next up for some high scoring. 

Also, start Miami's D at home against Cleveland if McCown is out. 
Yeah, my current plan right now is to 2 sets of stacks with 2 QBs for my GPPs.  One will be a set of Rivers stacks with David Johnson and the other Palmer stacks with Marvin Ingram.
 

Much tighter prices on FD compared to DK. Doesn't seem like they were able to get Diggs price up tho as he's still super cheap. 
Definitely.  Diggs, Crabtree, and Crowder are the only undercosted guys I can see for cash at either RB or WR.  Maybe Ware if hes still the primary back.  With Antonio Brown actually going up in price after his stinker Im going to try to get him in next week though.  Should be way underowned and hes getting them on a short week

 
at first glance this is what I'm seeing.

QB's

Rodgers should put up some major points against DET if you want to pay up. 

Bortles should turn it around at home against the Ravens. ARob and Hurns all in play.

Tannehill at home against Cleveland. Though I wonder if Cody Kessler is just gonna let the MIA defense do all the work.

* If Moncrief isn't playing I may fade Luck. Cornerbacks are the strength of the SD defense. 

RB's

Elliot is a good cash game option playing at home against Bears

Lacy against DET

C. Michael should get all the carries against SF at home. I like this as a volume play and GPP option.

If Martin is out, Charles Sims is a good volume play against LA. Yeah it is the Rams defense but he should be heavily involved, esp. in the passing game.

Frank Gore... Colts should still be able to put up points against SD. Low upside play but can see him getting another TD here.

WR's

Antonio Brown. duh.

ARob / Hurns

Cobb

Maclin against NYJ

Landry is a high floor PPR option, if he gets a TD he far exceeds value

Back to the well with Travis Benjamin against the Colts D

Diggs at 6400 is still far too low, don't care if it is against Carolina

TE's

Walker 

D Allen

Jared Cook

 
NixonMask said:
Fanduel took Draftkings lead and made their main slate Sunday only now. 

Pricing looks alot harder this week.  No more unreasonably under costed players.  Some that jumped out from my first placeholders:
Carson Palmer 8200
Phillip Rivers 8000
Ryan Tannehill 7400
David Johnson 8400
Melvin Gordon 7100
Jarvis Landry 7000
Jamison Crowder 5000
Dennis Pitta 5000
Good grief, you aren't kidding. 

Cash players I wrote down so far:

A lot of QBs- Rodgers, Brees, Palmer, Cam Eli, Rivers, Ryan.  A bit of $ will go here

Rbs: DWill, D.Johnson, Gordon, Vereen, Coleman, Gore

WRs - Cooks, Snead, Fitz, Landry, Cruz, K.Benjamin, T.Benjamin, T.Williams

Te- J.James, Witten, Tamme, Olsen

Of course a few of those get taken out since they are on MNF this week. 

Here's one that I threw together quick tonight to see what this week might look like if I throw a cash lineup into the Thurs-Mon contests:

Eli

Gordon, David Johnson

K.Benjamin, Snead, Fitz

J.James

Lutz

Miami

 
I'll post my cash lineup later in the week, you guys can just look at it as "players to avoid" this week. Maybe I should costanza and do the opposite of whatever I'm thinking. What's the opposite of Antonio brown? Mike Wallace? 

 
How do you guys account for your survivor action with respect to weekly ROI?

Last year I amortized my entry fee over the life of the contest, regardless of the status of the entries, then "credited" myself for the winnings in the week it actually paid. So if I invested $100 into a 4-week contest and won $150 in it, I treated it as $25 a week over 4 weeks, with 3 weeks of a $25 loss and a 4th week w/ a $125 profit. That creates a skewed view though and isn't an accurate depiction of the action.

Any thoughts would be appreciated. 

 
Alternatively you could give every contest an equal debit and credit line for each week until the investment "matures" or you are eliminated.  Then whatever week the contest actually pays debit the entire cost invested in the contest against the winnings.  I doubt thats legal accounting, its been over 10 years since I took the class, but that would be how I approach it.

 
How do you guys account for your survivor action with respect to weekly ROI?

Last year I amortized my entry fee over the life of the contest, regardless of the status of the entries, then "credited" myself for the winnings in the week it actually paid. So if I invested $100 into a 4-week contest and won $150 in it, I treated it as $25 a week over 4 weeks, with 3 weeks of a $25 loss and a 4th week w/ a $125 profit. That creates a skewed view though and isn't an accurate depiction of the action.

Any thoughts would be appreciated. 
Speaking of which I entered the FD survivor for the first time this week and my lineup advanced, how do you enter for week 2, do they give you a ticket or something?

 
Wow, so fantasylabs projections are up and they hate the Dolphins defense this week.  Anyone know what theyre seeing that Im not?

 
Wow, so fantasylabs projections are up and they hate the Dolphins defense this week.  Anyone know what theyre seeing that Im not?
:shrug:

Did they make the projections before McCown was 100% out for the game.  I have no idea, and assumed they would be one of the chalk plays of the week for D.

 
They just legit have them as a bottom half defense.  The Jarvis Landry special teams TD against a rookie heavy special teams made it more appealing to me than anything.  The Browns are among the least effective rushing teams in the NFL, on the road, with a mediocre rookie QB making his first start.

 
Speaking of which I entered the FD survivor for the first time this week and my lineup advanced, how do you enter for week 2, do they give you a ticket or something?
You should get entered automatically with a dummy lineup. I have one already for a $2 5-week survivor that I (and everyone else) advanced in.

 
They just legit have them as a bottom half defense.  The Jarvis Landry special teams TD against a rookie heavy special teams made it more appealing to me than anything.  The Browns are among the least effective rushing teams in the NFL, on the road, with a mediocre rookie QB making his first start.
I'm w/ you on this. Miami is going to be my default starting DST in every lineup. I'll pivot off of them some, but it's going to be tough not to just plug-and-play there. 

 
Alternatively you could give every contest an equal debit and credit line for each week until the investment "matures" or you are eliminated.  Then whatever week the contest actually pays debit the entire cost invested in the contest against the winnings.  I doubt thats legal accounting, its been over 10 years since I took the class, but that would be how I approach it.
I'm not worried about the "legal" accounting, I'm just looking for a better way to capture my play accurately for budgeting/assessment purposes. I "lost" 98% if my investment this week (for want of a grand total of 2.8 points across 3 lineups, I digress), but 70% of my action was in survivors, which all advanced. A chunk of that survivor action was actually invested last week, a chunk this week. As I noted in the FD week 2 thread, I'm not disciplined by nature, so I have to establish spend controls on myself early in the season, plus I want to figure out how to capture my relative success/failure each week. 

 
I'm not worried about the "legal" accounting, I'm just looking for a better way to capture my play accurately for budgeting/assessment purposes. I "lost" 98% if my investment this week (for want of a grand total of 2.8 points across 3 lineups, I digress), but 70% of my action was in survivors, which all advanced. A chunk of that survivor action was actually invested last week, a chunk this week. As I noted in the FD week 2 thread, I'm not disciplined by nature, so I have to establish spend controls on myself early in the season, plus I want to figure out how to capture my relative success/failure each week. 
That would be how I visualize it.  If week 1 you have $100 in survivor contests have a debit and credit for $100.  Then week 2 if you have $80 in survivor contests have a debt and credit for $80, but keep the line item for week 1 but rename it "survivor week 1 $100" or something and just have it as a debit and credit of $0.  Then do that for every week until its over and close the line items out at that point

 
Is anyone seeing any of the Playboy Mansion qualifiers in the lobby? I'm not seeing any and they usually have them posted by now.

 
First pass at my FD Survivor lineup...might go with Ebron and a different defense....


Palmer


Melvin G


ZekeElliot


Fitz


TBenjamin


Diggs


Witten


Gano


Dolphins

 
I finally had a good 30 minutes to spend playing around on the IVC.  I keep coming back to a Tannehill, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Antonio Brown lineup or a Tannehill, David Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, 3 $6900-$7000 WR lineup, both with Pitta for cash.  QB seems pretty easy this week.  Newton, Palmer, Rivers, Bortles, Marriota, Manning, Tannehill, Wentz, and Cousins all seem like strong plays.

There is also a ton more value in the $6900-$7000 WRs than I realized.  Maclin, Landry, Matthews, Jones, and Benjamin are all in that price range and are all safe cash plays.  Then Stefan Diggs is $6400 just below that, and Eric Decker is $7300 if he plays. My main hang up is with RB this week.  I do like Johnson, DeAngelo, and Melvin Gordon, but after that everything seems to carry some real risk.  I dont hate Forte, but after blowing up last week, this seems like a natural spot for a let down.  Hes on the road, and I have a feeling KCs rush defense is better than theyve looked through two weeks.  The SD game was just an epic collapse and its skewing their numbers into terrible, but they were actually pretty effective against Lamar Miller last week.  Anyone thinking about using any of the other RBs for cash?

 
I finally had a good 30 minutes to spend playing around on the IVC.  I keep coming back to a Tannehill, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Antonio Brown lineup or a Tannehill, David Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, 3 $6900-$7000 WR lineup, both with Pitta for cash.  QB seems pretty easy this week.  Newton, Palmer, Rivers, Bortles, Marriota, Manning, Tannehill, Wentz, and Cousins all seem like strong plays.

There is also a ton more value in the $6900-$7000 WRs than I realized.  Maclin, Landry, Matthews, Jones, and Benjamin are all in that price range and are all safe cash plays.  Then Stefan Diggs is $6400 just below that, and Eric Decker is $7300 if he plays. My main hang up is with RB this week.  I do like Johnson, DeAngelo, and Melvin Gordon, but after that everything seems to carry some real risk.  I dont hate Forte, but after blowing up last week, this seems like a natural spot for a let down.  Hes on the road, and I have a feeling KCs rush defense is better than theyve looked through two weeks.  The SD game was just an epic collapse and its skewing their numbers into terrible, but they were actually pretty effective against Lamar Miller last week.  Anyone thinking about using any of the other RBs for cash?
The main one that kept coming up was Gore at 5700.  At home, 3rd highest projected team total for the week, and the SD defense has given up the most pts to RBs. 

 
Besides for this site, which other sites does everyone use?  I see someone mention fantasylabs, but thats almost $60 a month, is it really worth it?  Has it made a difference for you?  My rotogrinders is expiring this week, not sure if I should renew it or not.  There are so many sites out there, are they all basically the same?

 
FBGs Optimal Lineup based on Dodds' early rankings

Quote


 


Name


SAL  


Pts


QB


Marcus Mariota


 7,700


19.4


RB


DeAngelo Williams


 8,800


18.3


RB


David Johnson


 8,400


18.1


WR


Stefon Diggs


 6,400


12.8


WR


Jarvis Landry


 7,000


13.3


WR


Jordan Matthews


  6,900


13


TE


Dennis Pitta


  5,000


8.9


PK


Adam Vinatieri


  4,700


10


DEF


Miami Dolphins


   4,600


11


 


 


 


 


Total


 


   59,500


125.1


Bal


 


   500


 



4for4 Projections Optimal lineup

 
 

 


Name


Proj.


 


4for4


QB


Andrew Luck


     8,700


 


21.7


RB


DeAngelo Williams


     8,800


 


20.9


RB


Melvin Gordon


     7,100


 


17.6


WR


Stefon Diggs


     6,400


 


13.2


WR


Antonio Brown


     9,500


 


19.4


WR


Cole Beasley


     5,100


 


9.1


TE


Dennis Pitta


     5,000


 


8.7


PK


Mason Crosby


     4,700


 


8


DEF


Miami Dolphins


     4,600


 


9.8


 


 


 


 


 


Total


 


   59,900


 


128.4


Bal


 


    100     


 


 
 
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More for GPP than for Cash, but I'd like to throw Elliot out there, at home against the Bears.  Could be his breakout game coming.

For Cash, my biggest uncertainty is at QB.  The IVC does not love Palmer right now, perhaps because he's on the road against the bills who might not put up much on offense.  It does love Tannehill.  I might roll with Ryan due to the NO matchup.  

 
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I would think Sims and Riddick would be decent option with Ameer done and Martin out
My concern with Sims is that the Bucs are already passing on 70% of their plays this season.  Any chance that goes down with Martin out?  The Rams have been good against both the rush and the pass.  Im concerned Drik decides, especially after a let down last week, to just come out and let Winston throw it 50 times.

More for GPP than for Cash, but I'd like to throw Elliot out there, at home against the Bears.  Could be his breakout game coming.

For Cash, my biggest uncertainty is at QB.  The IVC does not love Palmer right now, perhaps because he's on the road against the bills who might not put up much on offense.  It does love Tannehill.  I might roll with Ryan due to the NO matchup.  
Ryan isnt on the main slate with Monday not included anymore unfortunately.  The Cardinals are going to score points, Rob Ryan is a master.  It took him two weeks to transform a below average defense into a disaster.  My only concern with Palmer is the Bills are actually worse than they look and the games over by half.

 
FBGs Optimal Lineup based on Dodds' early rankings
Where did you go to get the optimal lineup?

I have that core in my lineup, but with Rivers and Marvin instead of Mariota and Landry.   Dodds liked it to the tune of 124.8 and MT 132.7. 

That said, I don't think Dodds would recommend Marvin, Diggs, or Matthews for cash b/c of the lower expected team totals for them this week. 

 
Lineup I really like:

Eli

David Johnson, Legarette Blount

OBJ, Kelvin Benjamin, Stefon Diggs

Dennis Pitta

Broncos 

 
norman saying he is going to shadow obj may take some ownership off of him so you may gt him a discount ownership

 
mrip541 said:
Tannehill kind of looks like the trap of the week.
agreed... Kessler and the Browns, I personally don't see Tannehill having to do much. I would think Eli Manning or Blake Bortles are the much safer bet.

 
So, you are trusting somebody down there to be able to run the ball at all?
Exactly. I see the trap/bust angle, then I think well am I just overthinking this. I unfortunately watch the Browns week in and week out, and I have a hard time seeing Tanny not reach value in cash games. 

 
yeah but we were saying the exact same things about eli last week.  could just see 13-9 kinda game here where tanny goes for like 175, a pick and no tds.  how often does that happen?  idk thats the question i guess.

 
So Corey Coleman just broke his hand today.  I agree with the sentiment, this Dolphin game feels like a trap.  A trap for Tannehill, and trap for the defense, but this could not possibly be a better situation.  The only way I can see Tannehill not producing is if the defense scores 2 TDs or something like that, and the only way I can see the Maimi defense not producing is if Tannehill blows them out and they score junk points.  Stacking them seems like the safe play to me.

 
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I actively dislike my initial back-of-the-envelope lineup's this week. That's a good thing for me. Sometimes I can't get off a lineup I fall in love with right off the bat even when I get data that says I should.

I'm self-aware enough to appreciate my shortcomings. I just lack the self-discipline to do anything about them. 

 
For the most part I am liking the D Will/David Johnson with Melvin Gordon chalk at RB.

Anybody touching Ajayi or Cameron Artis-Payne? Uncertainty of the workload may end up being too much to take on for cash, but both are big favorites at home. 

 
yeah but we were saying the exact same things about eli last week.  could just see 13-9 kinda game here where tanny goes for like 175, a pick and no tds.  how often does that happen?  idk thats the question i guess.
We are talking cash though, and looking to go at least 2x value..  That's 14.8 points, and 21 QBs had more than that last week.  Going against Cleveland, it's pretty safe to say that he will be in the top 20 Qbs this week.  I think people are overthinking this one.  It's a good Qb play, especially if you need 1000 or so for another position. 

 
Seeing a lot of talk of Diggs in a cash lineup.  I keep going back and forth and keep looking at Minn being projected to be the 3rd lowest scoring team this week by Vegas. 

This is probably the one that I am overthinking.

 

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