What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

What have we learned from weeks 1 and 2? (1 Viewer)

Frank Black

Frank Black

Footballguy
The FF landscape is changing some because of injuries, but odds appear that increased injuries may be a part of our new reality (last year maybe not a fluke).

That said, what have we learned from weeks 1 and 2?

For starters, I think the Ravens passing game is for real.

I think Eli may have one of his more consistent passing seasons.

On a different note, I believe WW strategy will be more difficult, due to the increased injuries that seem likely to keep happening.

 
  • RBs get injured a lot (well we already knew this).
  • Even though Sterling Shepard's rookie draft ADP started creeping up, he was likely still undervalued in most rookie drafts.
  • Joe Flacco likely has one of the highest floors for fantasy QBs and his ceiling isn't all that bad either.
  • The Green Bay offense is still in 2015-mode and I'm not sure we'll see a return to 2014-mode.
  • The Colts are one of the worst run organizations in football and if things don't change quickly they will waste the Andrew Luck era.
 
rascal said:
Indeed.  Thought I would have good choices for two RBs slots between L Murray, Stewart, Abdullah, hill, and gore.  I'm hoping for one now.
Click to expand...
People be like "Spencer Ware is no longer startable". Im like "Oh yeah, hes my best RB right now!"

 
It's still early, but so far, JAX is not what most had hoped. Some thought that their fantasy output might be reduced due to them being in more games this year, having a running game, playing good defense. Others thought the Jags weren't quite there yet, and would produce plenty of garbage-time points like last year. So far, it seems neither is the case. 

 
1. Go deep with RBs more than likely a couple 3rd stringers will play

2. The Browns are who we thought they were

3. Carolina may drop a 50 burger on someone soon

4. SF is not as bad as we thought

5. I severely undervalued Willie Snead and Diggs.

 
Injuries suck.

I've invented a new poker variant called "Fantasy Football". After the last call is made, before players reveal their hands, the dealer draws two more cards from the top of the deck and designates those cards as "injured" so they can't be used. "OK, everyone discard all your Jacks and Kings, they have concussions."

 
That OBJ is not going to get nearly the target share he was with Sheppard and Cruz in the fold.

That RBs have gone the way of the Dodo:

There have been 30 100+ yard receiving games so far this year.

There have been 7 100+ yard rushing games so far this year.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Agree that Diggs and Snead were undervalued, though the uncertainty in MN's passing offense had a lot to do with the former.  With the comment above on # of 100 yard receivers I agree.  But that is spread out - lots of depth there.  Heck - Will Fuller has 2 of those 100 yards games for me.

The RB situation is getting ugly.  I mean really ugly.  I can't even imagine the lineups that some owners will have to trot out with bye weeks coming up in 12 team leagues.  So many injuries and weak RBBC's behind them.  I drafted big time for depth here with Miller, CJ Anderson, Ware, Michael and Morris.  Even with Watkins limited, I can find enough depth with receivers to trot out the likes of Fuller, Crabtree, Hurns, Jordan Reed, etc.  All starting WR's wth lots of looks.  Sorry, I'm not entering the world of trying to figure out whether C.A. Payne or Tolbert get the nod, who's the stiff of the week in MIA, who's gonna get the rock in MN, whether Isiah Crowell will ever see a run like that this season, the Raven mess of a backfield, etc.  Ugly.

I'm not jumping to conclusions in 2 weeks.  Teams figure out it.  Some lines will get healthy.  I expect Houston to run the ball much better going forward as they get players back.  Seattle will get better.  Also I just expect teams to totally #### the bed if they have to fly to opposite coast.  Jacksonville - what was that???

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I learned that

1) Fuller is the real deal, and will cap Hopkins' upside

2) Marvin Jones is the clear #1 option in DET

3) SEA is a complete mess on offense.....15 points total in the first two games.

4) The Jets are going to run Matt Forte into the ground.  Fingers crossed that he can handle the 350+ touch workload being on the wrong side of 30.

5) I severely underestimated Cam's love for Kelvin Benjamin.  I am going to regret not drafting Benjamin in any of my leagues this year.

6) that Antonio Brown and Julio Jones will probably not come close to Marvin Harrison's 143 catch record.

7) that we totally overracted on Dez in Week 1.

 
Beckham, Cruz and Shepard are going to be a tough trio to cover for 60 full minutes - that last catch by Cruz yesterday was a great sign for his season. 2 games in and Eli trusts a rookie for 8/117? And Beckham will really go off soon as teams look to pick their poison.

 
I need to petition my league to go to full flex.  I have more WRs (WR3 and better) than I can start and no RBs worth starting.

 
Skoo said:
That OBJ is not going to get nearly the target share he was with Sheppard and Cruz in the fold.

That RBs have gone the way of the Dodo:

There have been 30 100+ yard receiving games so far this year.

There have been 7 100+ yard rushing games so far this year.
Click to expand...
Basically proves why you should wait on wr's next year. Zero rb is a myth. 

 
thehornet said:
Basically proves why you should wait on wr's next year. Zero rb is a myth. 
Click to expand...
Not necessarily.  Out of the top 10 RBs, you have AP, Gurley, Elliott, David Johnson,  L Miller, Freeman, Charles, Martin, Lacy and Ingram (no particular order).  Currently, only Johnson, Miller and Eliott are producing 1st/2nd round value.

You would be right if you KNEW exactly which RB will not bust.....but you don't.  David Johnson owners are sitting pretty.  Gurley owners, not so much.

 
thehornet said:
Basically proves why you should wait on wr's next year. Zero rb is a myth. 
Click to expand...
See, I used to think this way, but I'm starting to turn the corner.

Less good RBS = Good RBs are scarce = RB value goes up (or so I thought)

If you drafted a RB in the 1st two rounds this year not named David Johnson or Lamar Miller, you're probably not too happy right now.

So yeah, the David Johnson owner has a very valuable commodity. But for every DJ owner there's 6 guys who picked AP, Gurley, Charles, McCoy, or Lacy.

Basically if there's only 3 RBs putting up 100 yards/week, but there's 20 WRs putting up 100 yards/wk, the odds are much higher that I will draft a WR that consistently puts up 100 yards than a RB who does the same.

 
Skoo said:
See, I used to think this way, but I'm starting to turn the corner.

Less good RBS = Good RBs are scarce = RB value goes up (or so I thought)

If you drafted a RB in the 1st two rounds this year not named David Johnson or Lamar Miller, you're probably not too happy right now.

So yeah, the David Johnson owner has a very valuable commodity. But for every DJ owner there's 6 guys who picked AP, Gurley, Charles, McCoy, or Lacy.

Basically if there's only 3 RBs putting up 100 yards/week, but there's 20 WRs putting up 100 yards/wk, the odds are much higher that I will draft a WR that consistently puts up 100 yards than a RB who does the same.
Click to expand...
But I can see the point of taking the RB early.  You have a good chance to get a good WR later, due to the depth at the position.  But if you can hit on the RB and get the good WR, then you will have a big advantage that could win your league.

Teams that took Julio in Round 1, Mike Evans in Round 2 and got Matt Forte in Round 4 are also sitting pretty.

So any strategy can work if you pick the right players. 

 
rascal said:
I need to petition my league to go to full flex.  I have more WRs (WR3 and better) than I can start and no RBs worth starting.
Click to expand...
That's what we do.  Draft 10 flex and start 5.  They can be WR, RB or TE's, all score the same.  

 
The 49ers, Dolphins and Titans may be better than we thought. 

The Seahawks, Raiders, Bills, Redskins & Jags may be worse than we thought. Some substantially worse...

Running backs are the bane of my existence. 

Matty Ice is back. 

Drafting Josh Gordon may not result in quite the week 4 fantasy boon that many of us expected - I'm getting a very bad feeling about having wasted a 9th round pick on him. 

I hate this !$#!&^#$! game.  :wall:

I love this !*&#@%&! game.  :wub:

 
fightingillini said:
Not necessarily.  Out of the top 10 RBs, you have AP, Gurley, Elliott, David Johnson,  L Miller, Freeman, Charles, Martin, Lacy and Ingram (no particular order).  Currently, only Johnson, Miller and Eliott are producing 1st/2nd round value.

You would be right if you KNEW exactly which RB will not bust.....but you don't.  David Johnson owners are sitting pretty.  Gurley owners, not so much.
Click to expand...
The same thing could be said about WRs. Four of the Top 10 drafted WR are not even close to the Top 10. Three are just outside the Top 10 and 3 are in the Top 10. It's too early in the season to conclude much of anything (unless guys are hurt long term).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I had very low expectations for the Dolphins. They've outperformed my expectations. I'm not following you not following this. 
Click to expand...
I'm not following you not following me on following this. 

But seriously. Dolphins are 0-2. Got destroyed by Jimmy and the gang until he got hurt and they were able to make some what of a comeback to still fall short. That after losing to a Seattle team that just lost to the Rams, a team that has not scored a TD all year. 

 
Skoo said:
That OBJ is not going to get nearly the target share he was with Sheppard and Cruz in the fold.

That RBs have gone the way of the Dodo:

There have been 30 100+ yard receiving games so far this year.

There have been 7 100+ yard rushing games so far this year.
Click to expand...
And yet, 7 of the top 10 in yardage are running backs.  

 
That after all these years of owning Bradford in my dynasty, he in fact, is NOT afraid to throw downfield. He just needed a WR who has the burners to get there with a decent enough OL to hold their blocks.

 
fightingillini said:
But I can see the point of taking the RB early.  You have a good chance to get a good WR later, due to the depth at the position.  But if you can hit on the RB and get the good WR, then you will have a big advantage that could win your league.

Teams that took Julio in Round 1, Mike Evans in Round 2 and got Matt Forte in Round 4 are also sitting pretty.

So any strategy can work if you pick the right players. 
Click to expand...
I might try the "Pick the Right Players Strategy" one year.

 
Back when I still worked for FBG, I researched the RB position in any given year to see how things actually played out as the season progressed. In looking over the course of multiple seasons, I looked at who started out as a primary RB to start the season and then looked at who was a team's primary RB by the fantasy playoffs.

That could have been a result of injuries, someone being benched, a coaching change, etc. In a slow year for change, there was a 33% turnover. In a year with more inujries or more turnover, it was around 50%. On an average (at least in the years I considered), IIRC the change from Week 1 to fantasy playoffs was 40% . . . meaning 40% of teams had a different primary ball carrier and fantasy producer than the guy that started the season.

The point at the time was to show that investing in guys that were not clear cut started seemed to make more sense, especially for guys from teams with heavy fantasy scoring or utilization of RBs. I haven't looked at the current situation, but I suspect that that would still be the case.

I doubt I was covering any new ground then (or now), but the outcomes at least confirmed what we all thought all along. Guys get dinged and either miss significant time or lose their jobs.. That's why it makes sense to draft guys like DeAngelo or Ware even if you don't own Bell or Charles.

 
PlasmaDogPlasma said:
I might try the "Pick the Right Players Strategy" one year.
Click to expand...
Yeah. I've been employing it for years, but there are some subtleties I have yet to master. First there's the whole "get lucky" component - very tricky. Then there's the "know which peripheral players will get injured", like say, o-linemen (colts( and QBs (Browns).

but I'm close - I took David Johnson 1.04 in one league & JulIo Jones 1.03 in another, which hits on every strategic element including "pick in the top 5 in serpentine if you can help it."

i may publish a blog about this strategy - I think it has a lot of potential. 

:lmao:

 
fightingillini said:
Not necessarily.  Out of the top 10 RBs, you have AP, Gurley, Elliott, David Johnson,  L Miller, Freeman, Charles, Martin, Lacy and Ingram (no particular order).  Currently, only Johnson, Miller and Eliott are producing 1st/2nd round value.

You would be right if you KNEW exactly which RB will not bust.....but you don't.  David Johnson owners are sitting pretty.  Gurley owners, not so much.
Click to expand...
Tell me how the WRs are doing?

How is Odell looking? Arob?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Yeah. I've been employing it for years, but there are some subtleties I have yet to master. First there's the whole "get lucky" component - very tricky. Then there's the "know which peripheral players will get injured", like say, o-linemen (colts( and QBs (Browns).

but I'm close - I took David Johnson 1.04 in one league & JulIo Jones 1.03 in another, which hits on every strategic element including "pick in the top 5 in serpentine if you can help it."

i may publish a blog about this strategy - I think it has a lot of potential. 

:lmao:
Click to expand...
Always a solid strategy, sure you may get Shaun Alexander'ed occasionally, but I recall numerous articles around draft position and the top picks almost always had a significant advantage with the spots in the back at the turn next. The wasteland was usually the 7-9 range most years (I drew pick 8 this year  :kicksrock: ) Reminds me of your Zero RB thread, someone in there said they wished more leagues would go auction, I am in full agreement.

 
ShamrockPride said:
That after all these years of owning Bradford in my dynasty, he in fact, is NOT afraid to throw downfield. He just needed a WR who has the burners to get there with a decent enough OL to hold their blocks.
Click to expand...


Bradford made Amendola and Denario Alexander look like pro bowlers for the Rams 

 
Skoo said:
See, I used to think this way, but I'm starting to turn the corner.

Less good RBS = Good RBs are scarce = RB value goes up (or so I thought)

If you drafted a RB in the 1st two rounds this year not named David Johnson or Lamar Miller, you're probably not too happy right now.

So yeah, the David Johnson owner has a very valuable commodity. But for every DJ owner there's 6 guys who picked AP, Gurley, Charles, McCoy, or Lacy.

Basically if there's only 3 RBs putting up 100 yards/week, but there's 20 WRs putting up 100 yards/wk, the odds are much higher that I will draft a WR that consistently puts up 100 yards than a RB who does the same.
Click to expand...
Yes but it also more likely that when you consistently roll out a Rb that puts up 7-9 and you cross against the owners who have Rbs putting up 20+, you will lose a lot because, after all, there are 40 WRs out there that are basically fungible and your guys are crossing out his guys.  

So, essentially, its VBD and you're on the losing end if you aren't sitting pretty with a RB.  

I see guys in this thread saying you aren't happy if you are a Shady or Lacy owner, and guys like that but Shady is holding his own, especially against an overall weaker field.  He's sitting right at top 12 right now.  Lacy seems to always start slow but he also seems to always be durable and a big contributor in the FF playoffs.  

I think people are overlooking the basics when they start crapping on all Rbs just because only 4-5 are "studs".  That is exactly why you need them...lots of them.  Because that is where the point separations against your opponents are.  I guess everyone is generally in a better mood when there are 15 stud RBS running around the league and everyone can brag about their guy but at the end of the day, all you are doing is trading your 24 for his 27...big deal.  Its much more important at THIS PARTICULAR point in time when you can put a couple guys out there that end up net +12-15.  

 
FUBAR said:
And yet, 7 of the top 10 in yardage are running backs.  
Click to expand...
It also comes down to the old " the more you can do" adage.  With Rbs, you get great players (and some average ones) that can catch but you seldom see Wrs that rack up rushing yards.  In some ways, you get two tickets out of one when going with a rb. 

 
rascal said:
Oh, guess that is par for the course.  I still dont have a twitter account and got my first smart phone 3 years ago...I'm a bit behind the times.
Click to expand...
No you aren't behind the times ;)   well in terms of fantasy football anyhow.   Some things are just a bit avant-garde for awhile.

 
that apparently I'm losing my edge in this hobby

I'm losing my edge.
The kids are coming up from behind.
I'm losing my edge.
I'm losing my edge to the kids from France and from London.

 
thehornet said:
With Wilson hobbled, yes. They'll be ok when he can run again. 
Click to expand...
and that they start giving the BETTER RB at this moment CMike the bulk of the carries,until Rawls can prove he's the same runner he was before his ankle injury,and his newest booboo should give CMike the start and help jumpstart the offense too. The coaches made a clear mistake rushing Rawls back IMO,and it hurt the Offense.

 
Crystalsteam99 said:
and that they start giving the BETTER RB at this moment CMike the bulk of the carries,until Rawls can prove he's the same runner he was before his ankle injury,and his newest booboo should give CMike the start and help jumpstart the offense too. The coaches made a clear mistake rushing Rawls back IMO,and it hurt the Offense.
Click to expand...
That's going to happen when you are forced to trust CMike.  He is a great runner, just not a so-much as a professional football player.

 
Crystalsteam99 said:
and that they start giving the BETTER RB at this moment CMike the bulk of the carries,until Rawls can prove he's the same runner he was before his ankle injury,and his newest booboo should give CMike the start and help jumpstart the offense too. The coaches made a clear mistake rushing Rawls back IMO,and it hurt the Offense.
Click to expand...
imo the bigger question, and it looks like maybe the answer is yes (a while ago it seemed to be no) is whether jimmy comes back. 

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

T
Travdogg's positional rankings from week 14 onward (last update)
Replies
24
Views
1K
N Zone
N Zone
Scoresman
2022 Hindsight - Which of these situations could we have predicted?
Replies
34
Views
1K
zamboni
zamboni
Ministry of Pain
Exploit/Avoid Week 6-Bye weeks Begin
Replies
30
Views
1K
PIK95
PIK95

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top