Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
This week I would like to invite some of you to take a a little journey. I have been a 1996 owner with a 1986 reference for the last 20 years and just recently I sort of accepted that I needed to change my ways a little if I am going to remain in the FF community and have a good time.
I can moan and groan about rule changes, the Dolphins, the mystery of what a catch is week to week, the Dolphins, Roger Goodell, the Dolphins, Goodell, Dolphins, Goodell...
Luckily I found the shot in the arm I needed and I encourage you to poke around the DFS forums where our very own David Dodds is dishing out winners like hotcakes. If you didn't like the first go around, try it again. I had $$$ in my eyes initially and still do but once I started doing some research and focusing on the 50/50 vs the GPPs my attitude started to change. It's fun to pick a new line up every week for $10-$20...you can play for a lot more if you prefer, but just enjoy that every week I can research and plan and then try it out on Sunday. Some weeks we're gonna flop, if it were foolproof we'd all be rich. but the game is becoming fun again and there's a reason to dig and find information. I played in dyansty for about 10 years, was slow to join that and in the end it really jaded me to a degree. I bet DFS will too some day but for the time being why fight it?
So many weeks posters complain because even though they see great match ups they are locked by their rosters and leagues. With DFS that's never an issue. I've said enough but I encourage you to try it for a while and imagine the same $250-$300 you're gonna spend on 1 redraft league, you can play DFS and have a new team every week for 16 weeks.
And on we roll to Week 3...
Houston at New England +1 (40.5)
The Patriots will roll with their 3rd string QB this week on short rest. They were spanking the Phins 31-3 before Ryan Tannehill somehow managed to get Miami to a final throw into the end zone to tie the football game before the comeback fell short. Those stats that were racked sort of skew the numbers a little for just how good the Pats secondary and overall defense have done.
Brock Osweiler on paper would appear to have a decent match up as does Hopkins and Fuller however this game figures to be relatively low scoring by Vegas standards so there might only be a TD or Two either way or each, this doesn’t shape up to be a barn burner.
Do not chase Bennett’s points from last week. Houston has a much stronger pass rush and I expect Bennett to stay in to help block so Brissett can try and get it to the WR trio. Also The Texans are giving up very few points at TE this season so just sit him. I like Edelman the best of the three on the short week. Hogan likely next, Amendola is just too streaky for me and he also tends to leave with injuries right when he looks his best, buyer beware.
Blount does not have a great match up and when you add in a 3rd string QB with a short week of practice, this might end up being a dud this week. He offers nothing in the passing game, Houston is 2-0 and focused on getting in the playoffs, I bet they know how to stop Blount unlike Miami who couldn’t stop simple sweeps at the end of the game as NE was running out the clock.
Lamar Miller has had a rough start although plenty of touches. Something feels like he might be able to get loose as NEW England will be preoccupied with Hopkins and Fuller. I still wouldn’t say it’s a strong play by any means.
Final Score: Houston 17...New England 13, JJ Watt has a score to seal it for the Texans.
Denver at Cincinnati -3 (41)
This game figures to be a defensive struggle as well. Look elsewhere for sure points outside of maybe AJ Green this week and I wouldn’t expect much more than 75-90 yds for him, maybe a score but this is not going to be like when he abused Revis Week 1.
Sanders and Thomas have a chance for some avg numbers. Thomas took some of the thunder last week, maybe Sanders gets the call this week? Either way you don’t see them having huge days in Cinci.
Hill and Bernard...GB is always worth a look in PPR-Flex plays. He had 100/TD on about 8-9 catches last week, he can be their #2/#3 receiver after AJ Green. I would look for him to somehow gather a double digit day in PPR. Hill you live and die if he scores or not.
The strongest play on the board in this game is likely CJ Anderson who will get a lot of touches, right now with his receptions he is close to 25 per game, this week I see that more in the 18-22 range because this is a stronger defense.
Final Score: Cincinnati 20...Denver 17
Oakland at Tennessee -1.5 (47)
The story here is the Titans defense which helped them win last week against a pretty good passing game from Detroit. The Raiders were in New Orleans Week1, ATL at home last week, back cross country, they are going to be a little tired and an already soft secondary and defense will be the target for Mariota and company, they should do well this week offensively, really no excuses.
Oak Pass: This will not be an easy m/u for Derek Carr, in fact on the list of scoring leaders he might be a guy I leave off my DFS line-ups this week, we’ll see as we get closer but at first glance I don’t love this. Cooper is avg 10 targets a game, Crabs 7 and Walford 6. Clive has gotten some pub this week but I think outside of the blown assignment on his TD, I’m not that impressed yet and he had a horrible drop in game last week. If he is your TE2, cool, keep watching and waiting to pounce on the right week, this isn’t it IMO. Not sure an Oak WR is going to go over 100 mark, we’ll see. It only takes one misstep for Cooper to take it to the house.
Oak Run: Murray is avg 15 touches a game, 80 rush/rec yds, and a TD per game. Jalen and Washington offer something different but I don’t see either taking Murray’s job right now. And none of them have terrific m/u this week. In fact the Titans are 2nd in the league in FF points allowed, the Lions had a bunch of guys they kept in check last week. ‘
Titans Pass: Mariota has to be on some sleeper lists this week. I probably am not going to start him anywhere but he would be a guy on the low % own/higher upside type. He could also ruin your weekend if the Titans lean on their running game. Tajae Sharpe should be in all line ups this weekend. He plays outside and the Oakland Raiders are giving out yds and receptions to WRs like Halloween Candy so don’t let this guy sit on your bench if you can help it. Now is the time!
Titans Run: Murray has 14 targets in the passing game and he is cashing in on opps so far. I don’t see him maintaining this much of the work load but I think Henry is being brought along slowly, this week I expect to see a lot more from him as the Titans are going to want to play ball control where they can.
Final Score: Tennessee 24...Oakland 23, JDR misses on a 2 pt conversion as time expires.
Arizona at Buffalo +4 (47)
This is a great m/u for the AZ WRs this week, unfortunately most teams do not usually do that well airing it out up in Buffalo. So while I am going to go with the odds they do well, there is part of me that at least is slightly cautious to over reccomend. It is Sept though and th eweather should be relatively nice.
Larry Fitzgerald is getting 10-11 targets a week, for a guy retiring he sure is a big part of this offense. Michael Floyd is getting about half the number of targets of Fitzgerald. Whoever is covering the slot for Buffalo plus the Safety over the top depending on what side he lines up, they should be busy busy all day long. The other WRs for AZ are mostly a waste of space on your roster right now. That could change but maybe with Johnson being a bigger part of the offense, maybe they don’t need 3 different WRs closing in 1,000 yds receiving. I expect a pretty strong game from David Johnson, Buffalo has been giving away point to opposing RBs, Forte fresh off a 3 TD game.
The Bills are running a gimpy Sammy Watkins out there. Woods plays the other WR spot so I would assume Marquise Goodwin either subs for Watkins or is part of the 3 WR sets. I like Goodwin until the injury situation and reliable target info appears. Right now it’s a guessing game. The only solid play if probably LeSean McCoy although I figure the Cards know that as well. Expect a decent return this weekend. This is going to be a little closer than some folks think.
Final Score: Arizona 27...Buffalo 20, I think the Cards will pull away late.
Baltimore at Jacksonville Pk’em (41.5)
It’s tough to be definitive in this game. Here is what we know about the 2 teams so far…
Balt Pass: Flacco seems like a strong start this week. Pitta 8, St Smith 7, M.Wallace 6...those are the avg targets per game for those three players. This is a solid m/u for Mike Wallace again this week. Until defenses go out of their way to stop him just keep paying him. 3 Tds in 2 weeks and not all long bombs, he can catch the 10-20 intermediate route pretty well.
Balt Run: Forsett/West pretty split on the carries and touches, neither is making anyone forget about the other or searching for options. I would still leave them alone although this week you can almost smell a big run coming from one of them at some point.
Jax Pass: The Allen Bros don’t have a score the 1st 2 weeks of the season, that’s a problem. Targets are decent for both although Robinson fell sharply from 15 to 5 last week, Hurns went from 5 to 10 targets last week. TJ Yeldon is better suited for PPR Flex leagues, he has 15 targets on the season but he is ineffective as a straight runner. Even if Ivory is active this week I would pass. I don’t like guys coming off injuries but he hasn’t played at all yet and the injury has been guarded so i don’t really know what to expect when he makes it on the field. The running game for Jax is not happening right now.
Final Score: Jacksonville 21...Baltimore 19, The Ravens beat Buffalo who looked terrible and then they were getting beat by Cleveland before rallying, let’s see if they are a 3-0 team. I like Jax in a mild upset.
Cleveland at Miami -9.5 (41.5)
-Both are a little below avg at QB FFs allowed...one has a 3rd string QB
-Both are a little below avg at WR FFs allowed...rookie DB for Miami, can Cle exploit?
-Both are a little below avg at TE FFs allowed...Barnidge and Cameron...oh boy
-Both are solid/avg at RB FFs allowed...Miami is down to their 2nd and 3rd string RBs.
Miami will either exorcise some demons and blow Cleveland out or this is going to be a sloppy game that is much closer than the Vegas line would indicate and owners of guys like Parker are going to feel rooked on Sunday afternoon...which will it be?
Miami Pass: I think THill is a decent play this week but I do caution you to not get all caught up in his 2nd half heroics last week, that might not happen again. Parker and Landry seem like decent plays this week. With so many other defensive type games according to Vegas lines, maybe they have this one wrong or maybe Miami points are plentiful even within this projection. I would bench all Miami RBs until we see something worth playing.
Cleveland Pass: I like Coleman(OUT) this week as he should attack another rookie in Howard at DB. Pryor could also surprise if he manages to get isolated on Howard. Too bad the Browns don’t know if they have a guy who can exploit that.
Cleveland Run: I wouldn’t chase points but it seems like Crowell should do alright. Blount ran thru Miami like swiss cheese, surely Cleveland will try to get him loose on the ground. I expect Duke to see plenty of targets and perhaps a decent play in flex PPR role.
Final Score: Miami 35 to 6? 27 to 13? What if Cleveland were to win 27-14?...Miami 24...Cleveland 17, maybe the heat and humidity will swing in favor of Miami.
Washington at NY Giants -4 (46)
Plain and simple, this is not a good match up for the Skins and their passing game. That said, this is the perfect spot for Cousins to silence some of his critics with a performance not many are planning on. That doesn’t mean he will deliver either. The DL for the Giants is playing well and this is shaping into a playoff team.
Eli Manning looks like a pretty easy start this week unless you have Cam Newton on your roster already. I also think ODB has had a couple subpar weeks but he is being targeted plenty so I look for him to breakout of a slow start and find the end zone this week on the Skins. As far as Shepard and Cruz go, both are avg about 6 targets a game, Shep looks a little more explosive, Cruz looks like a great possession and red zone type threat. The trio cause a lot of headaches for opposing defenses.
If Jennings is healthy enough to start I would think about playing him. The Skins let both DeAngelo Williams and Elliott score, Jennings has to be on your radar despite not doing much last week. Vereen is always a flex option but little more. Washington is #2 in RB FFs allowed.
Just bench your Skins this week, DeSean Jackson included. Matt Jones is not a strong play this week either, Giants defense has been shutting skill position guys down for the most part. I could also understand Jordan Reed if you are feeling frisky.
Final Score: New York Giants 27...Washington 20
Detroit at Green Bay -7.5 (48)
The Lions are #8 in RB FFs allowed so Eddie Lacy is not a great look this week. The Packers are #1 overall however they faced a punchless Jags ground game and then AP went down last week with a torn meniscus. The Lions are down Abdullah for perhaps the rest of the year, 6-8 weeks at least it would seem. Dwayne Washington has been a big name on the WW this week, I wouldn’t expect a lot from him this week vs the Pack.
Aaron Rodgers has a juicy m/u this week with Detroit weighing in at #31 overall in QB defense. Targets looking like this...Nelson 10, Cobb 7-8, Adams, 7 and the TEs have a great m/u this week but is it Cook or Rodgers or neither? Cobb has been putting up avg numbers, a TD or two this week would go a long way.
Marvin Jones 10-11, Tate 8 but the targets for Tate are not putting him in position to exploit much. I have downgraded Tate for the season, despite the targets he is close to waivers in some leagues. The upside just doesn’t seem to be there right now. Jones will have to prove he can consistently hurt teams before they Tate is going to have a lot of breathing room. Also I saw that his slot opps have been cut in half almost based on snap counts, that’s not good. Boldin had a 2nd TD called back, keep an eye on his role on this team.
I like Eric Ebron a lot this week assuming he is healthy. GB is not great at covering the TE so far, Ebron should have plenty of open looks, his 2nd TD of the season on tap. Theo Riddick has a very tough m/u this week, not a big fan.
Final Score: Green Bay 34...Detroit 14, this has blow out written all over it.
Minnesota at Carolina -7 (43)
Will Sam Bradford’s strong play on MNF enable him to find success at Carolina? If they told you wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe them?
Both of the teams are middle of the road in terms of QB performances vs their defenses. I don’t think you run and start Bradford right now, you should have better options. In DFS I just couldn’t roll the dice on something like this except maybe in GPPs but you really are just shooting for the moon here. However, I will admit that Carolina is not a juggernaut yet in their secondary.
Cam all day and you don’t think twice about it. He might have to scratch and claw for his 250/2-3TDs but they’re coming and JStew is likely not playing so he will be asked to help out the ground game as well. I DO NOT like Kelvin Benjamin this week. 10-11 targets but I feel like the Vikings will key in on him. Look for Olsen to have a pretty big day all things considered. I expect him to push the seams down the middle of the field.
Stefon Diggs all day, do not sit this guy any week right now. He is a solid WR2 with upside, he might eventually be a WR1, he has the attitude that you need. Diggs is avg 140/.5TD per week, ride the train!!! Kyle Rudolph is avg 8 targets, you can think about a play here but I am not as confident in him this week as I am Diggs.
McKinnon/Asiata? Fozzy Whitaker? I kind of like Fozzy but the other side you don’t know yet. Seems like Asiata could start but then see lots of McKinnon after that. Interested in the SP take on these RB situations.
Final Score: Carolina 27...Minnesota 16
San Francisco at Seattle -9.5 (40)
Vegas is saying that Seattle is going to blow the Niners out and allow very few points this week in Seattle. Chip Kelly’s offense last week was pretty anemic despite the score. I don’t see them being a large factor in the game.
Carlos Hyde was getting touches last week but there wasn’t a lot of room to operate, this week could be worse. I would bench him unless you have nothing due to injuries. The SF WRs aren’t even worth mentioning this week.
Doug Baldwin has 9 FDs on his 12 catches, that keeps drives going. They need to get the ball to him a lot. Kearse and Lockett, one of them will have some success this weekend like a TD. Jimmy Graham has been coming along slowly but he has a nice m/u vs SF this week, can he exploit it?
Rawls seems hurt, would let him sit on your bench. C.Michael is still nothing to get totally excited about. He might be worth a look this week as Seattle figures to be ahead. Can you come up with a way SF wins this game? Wilson is hurt but he might have a surprise game this week getting the Seahawks up early so he can cruise from there.
Final Score: Seattle 24...San Fran 14
LA Rams at Tampa Bay -5 (41.5)
Doug Martin is OUT for the next 3 weeks at least. Charles Sims is going to see an increase in touches. Sims is a decent play in PPR leagues. The Rams allowed Hyde to get loose and I think Seattle can’t exploit soft rush defenses right now. Are the Rams soft? Let’s see how they handle the Bucs who aren’t a great running team right now.
Todd Gurley should have his biggest game of the season to date this weekend. Owners better hope for a 20 point performance.
The Rams have been tough on opposing Qbs to this point, still Winston presents some different dynamics over Gabbert and a gimpy Wilson, I expect Jameis to redeem himself a little for some horrific play at times last week. Mike Evans is likely to hit the box score at some point. He is getting 12 targets a game and VJax is looking older and older as each weeks passes.
I like Kenny Britt this week. He has 9 First Downs vs 3 to the next highest WR, he’s going to get targets and I expect him to be a good play this week, especially once Gurley gets defenses thinking run run run. Tavon Austin is getting 10 targets a week and doing nothing with them.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 20...LA Rams 14
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia +3.5 (46.5)
Wentz had another good game last week and is making a believer out of many FF fans. It’s not his production as much as it appears to be his leadership and having folks there believe in themselves. The STeelers are top 10 in FF Qb Defense so this might not be his best best week but I bet he pushes the Steelers avg up and not down.
Jordan Mathews is getting between 11-12 targets a week so far, he seems productive with the occasional drop. Keep Agholor on your bench right now but he also seems like he has a future in this offense. Ryan Mathews has 3 TDs in the 1st 2 weeks. The Steelers are middle of the road for FF rush Defense so I wouldn’t hesitate to insert him. He isn’t catching a lot of ball though and I think you might be a little TD reliant with him, so be aware.
DeAngelo Williams is a great play and must start this week. Big Ben and the WRs have their work cut out for them, Philly is #2 in FF QB Defense however it should be noted that was against RG3 and Jay Cutler, this week we will see if they are for real. Antonio Brown had a soft day last Sunday, Sammie Coates stock is up after an impressive Week 2.
Jesse James should be a bench play this week, Philly is tough vs opposing WRs, TEs, and yes QBs. I never discount the STeelers but they do not have a good m/u going into the weekend.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 24...Philly 20
New York Jets vs Kansas City -3 (43)
I believe KC will win this week and that is going to be tough for the Jets who look like a potential playoff team which they were almost last year. Both QBs, Fitz and Smith, neither of them is actually a great NFL QB, they can manage a game when they want, hit a few throws, but neither of them is Montana or Brady and never will be. So while I don’t think a whole lot of either of them in terms of NFL status, the fact is they can put up points and this week I think this could be a surprise higher score game if things unfold right.
The Jets are a little below avg vs opposing QBs and especially WRs where they are 2nd worst in the NFL mainly due to Revis Lagoon...used to be an island but now under water. Maclin should have a big week, Kelce not as much since both of the teams are pretty stingy to the TEs.
I like Brandon Marshall this week. He got hurt a little in Week 2 but he’s had 10 days rest and I hope he is ready to reclaim his spot as the best WR on this team. Decker will be fine and he will try and go deep on Revis once or twice, problem is Smith isn’t capable of hitting that pass consistently. Enunwa definitely has carved out his place but he was banged up last week and I think his story will take a back seat to Marshall for 1 week. Matt Forte is a must start with all his touches until the wheels come off if they even do.
Finally, the RB situation. Both Ware and West have been productive in spurts but the key stat is receiving where Ware has 7 FDs on like 9 catches and quadruple the yds of what West is avg per catch. I’m not going to blow this up more than it already is. Charles is likely OUT this week, still a week or two away from making any meaningful impact. Jets are top 10 in FF RB defense but I think Ware will push them well into the middle of the pack this week.
Final Score: Kansas City 24...New York Jets 17, possible defensive scores both sides.
San Diego at Indy -3 (52)
QB: Rivers is still a nice start this week, don’t care who he has to throw it to. The Chargers allow the 6th most QB FF on pass defense, absolutely no way around Luck being a big play this week. Both Rivers and Luck should be starting for owners this week.
RB: Melvin Gordon is one of the strongest plays of the week IMO. The Colts allow the most RB FFs of all the teams so Gordon is a must play this week. The unfortunate injury to Danny Woodhead leaves the door wide open for Gordon to get a ton of touches. Frank Gore is borderline playable this week but I stress borderline.
WR: Benjamin and Williams are worth a shot this week Both have upside and both are going to be asked to help San Diego keep pace with Indy. If either are available on your WW go get them. I also like Gates as a potential top 5 crash this week at TE. Someone is going to have multiple TDs.
The Colts are likely to be without Donte Moncrief so give a bump to Dorset, another guy who possibly could be on your WW and is an easy plug in and play this week. I am not expecting huge numbers but he and Hilton will be trying to stretch the field. That should leave Allen as a solid play at TE underneath this week. Most skill position starters in this game should be in your lineup.
Final Score: Indy 31...San Diego 21
Chicago at Dallas -7 (45)
-Dallas is not a juggernaut on defense just yet so expect someone like Langford who hasn’t been doing much to have a solid outing. And if he doesn’t then maybe a few more touches are in order for Jordan Howard who quietly had 3/22 on the ground last week.
-Alshon Jeffrey is producing high ypc but it is difficult to read what the missing Cutler will do to Alshon in the stats column. He and White plus Royal avg about the same amount of targets but Jeffrey produces more than Royal and White’s combined targets per game. Meaning they get about 12-14 per game and they cannot combine for what Jeffrey can do on his own with half their combined targets.
-Dallas is using Cole Beasley a lot. He has 9 targets a game and has 9 First Downs for the season, he is an integral part of the offense. Witten is seeing a lot of targets but his numbers went down some Week 1. Dez saw an increase in his targets last week and seems like Dallas wants to ensure the mental health of this guy and they are not forgetting about him. Those 3 are the primaries in the passing game, nobody else comes close to the number of targets these three will see over the course of a game.
-Elliott hasn’t done nearly as much as I thought he would when he entered the league. I also thought Dallas OL would be a lot better than it is. Not sure where they are ranking at PFF but this is not a PRO BOWL level line at the moment. They need to open more holes in the running game. There still is lots of time, like this coming week.
Final Score: Dallas 21...Chicago 17, I don’t see a huge score in this one.
Atlanta at New Orleans -3 (54)
The Saints have a slightly better defense of the two. They have been giving to the opposing WRs, about average vs QBs, good vs TEs but remember they faces Oak and the Giants, now they have ATlanta, seems like every week they face an elite WR be it Cooper, ODB, and Julio Jones this week. The Falcons on the other hand are showing up poor vs opposing Qbs, they are the 2nd worst vs opposing TEs which might make Coby Fleener a sleeper play that many will pass on based on the risk. Fleener is avg 6 targets a game.
Atlanta WR/TE: Julio 6-7, Sanu 6-7, Tamme 8, Coleman 4, Freeman 2...that’s the targets distribution. Saints are good vs opposing TEs so far, don’t feel like Tamme is the strong play this week. I expect bigger games from Julio and Sanu with new Orleans having to throw the lights out to keep pace, in short this should be a track meet.
Start the Iceman and Brees, both are strong plays it would seem. Brandin Cooks 9 targets a game and Snead also in the 8-9 range but Snead has converted a major 12 First Downs vs 7 by Cooks. Both are strong plays this week. Keep an eye on Michael Thomas, he could surprise as a 3rd receiver emerging in this one.
Coleman is getting a lot of press but he has a 3.4 ypc vs 4.0 by Freeman who holds a slight edge in the number of carries so far. Coleman has the edge at receiving right now. RBBC but both could score this week depending on the flow of the game. Mark Ingram also a must play this week.
Final Score: New Orleans 34...Atlanta 28
Good Luck everyone, have a great week!
I can moan and groan about rule changes, the Dolphins, the mystery of what a catch is week to week, the Dolphins, Roger Goodell, the Dolphins, Goodell, Dolphins, Goodell...
Luckily I found the shot in the arm I needed and I encourage you to poke around the DFS forums where our very own David Dodds is dishing out winners like hotcakes. If you didn't like the first go around, try it again. I had $$$ in my eyes initially and still do but once I started doing some research and focusing on the 50/50 vs the GPPs my attitude started to change. It's fun to pick a new line up every week for $10-$20...you can play for a lot more if you prefer, but just enjoy that every week I can research and plan and then try it out on Sunday. Some weeks we're gonna flop, if it were foolproof we'd all be rich. but the game is becoming fun again and there's a reason to dig and find information. I played in dyansty for about 10 years, was slow to join that and in the end it really jaded me to a degree. I bet DFS will too some day but for the time being why fight it?
So many weeks posters complain because even though they see great match ups they are locked by their rosters and leagues. With DFS that's never an issue. I've said enough but I encourage you to try it for a while and imagine the same $250-$300 you're gonna spend on 1 redraft league, you can play DFS and have a new team every week for 16 weeks.
And on we roll to Week 3...
Houston at New England +1 (40.5)
The Patriots will roll with their 3rd string QB this week on short rest. They were spanking the Phins 31-3 before Ryan Tannehill somehow managed to get Miami to a final throw into the end zone to tie the football game before the comeback fell short. Those stats that were racked sort of skew the numbers a little for just how good the Pats secondary and overall defense have done.
Brock Osweiler on paper would appear to have a decent match up as does Hopkins and Fuller however this game figures to be relatively low scoring by Vegas standards so there might only be a TD or Two either way or each, this doesn’t shape up to be a barn burner.
Do not chase Bennett’s points from last week. Houston has a much stronger pass rush and I expect Bennett to stay in to help block so Brissett can try and get it to the WR trio. Also The Texans are giving up very few points at TE this season so just sit him. I like Edelman the best of the three on the short week. Hogan likely next, Amendola is just too streaky for me and he also tends to leave with injuries right when he looks his best, buyer beware.
Blount does not have a great match up and when you add in a 3rd string QB with a short week of practice, this might end up being a dud this week. He offers nothing in the passing game, Houston is 2-0 and focused on getting in the playoffs, I bet they know how to stop Blount unlike Miami who couldn’t stop simple sweeps at the end of the game as NE was running out the clock.
Lamar Miller has had a rough start although plenty of touches. Something feels like he might be able to get loose as NEW England will be preoccupied with Hopkins and Fuller. I still wouldn’t say it’s a strong play by any means.
Final Score: Houston 17...New England 13, JJ Watt has a score to seal it for the Texans.
Denver at Cincinnati -3 (41)
This game figures to be a defensive struggle as well. Look elsewhere for sure points outside of maybe AJ Green this week and I wouldn’t expect much more than 75-90 yds for him, maybe a score but this is not going to be like when he abused Revis Week 1.
Sanders and Thomas have a chance for some avg numbers. Thomas took some of the thunder last week, maybe Sanders gets the call this week? Either way you don’t see them having huge days in Cinci.
Hill and Bernard...GB is always worth a look in PPR-Flex plays. He had 100/TD on about 8-9 catches last week, he can be their #2/#3 receiver after AJ Green. I would look for him to somehow gather a double digit day in PPR. Hill you live and die if he scores or not.
The strongest play on the board in this game is likely CJ Anderson who will get a lot of touches, right now with his receptions he is close to 25 per game, this week I see that more in the 18-22 range because this is a stronger defense.
Final Score: Cincinnati 20...Denver 17
Oakland at Tennessee -1.5 (47)
The story here is the Titans defense which helped them win last week against a pretty good passing game from Detroit. The Raiders were in New Orleans Week1, ATL at home last week, back cross country, they are going to be a little tired and an already soft secondary and defense will be the target for Mariota and company, they should do well this week offensively, really no excuses.
Oak Pass: This will not be an easy m/u for Derek Carr, in fact on the list of scoring leaders he might be a guy I leave off my DFS line-ups this week, we’ll see as we get closer but at first glance I don’t love this. Cooper is avg 10 targets a game, Crabs 7 and Walford 6. Clive has gotten some pub this week but I think outside of the blown assignment on his TD, I’m not that impressed yet and he had a horrible drop in game last week. If he is your TE2, cool, keep watching and waiting to pounce on the right week, this isn’t it IMO. Not sure an Oak WR is going to go over 100 mark, we’ll see. It only takes one misstep for Cooper to take it to the house.
Oak Run: Murray is avg 15 touches a game, 80 rush/rec yds, and a TD per game. Jalen and Washington offer something different but I don’t see either taking Murray’s job right now. And none of them have terrific m/u this week. In fact the Titans are 2nd in the league in FF points allowed, the Lions had a bunch of guys they kept in check last week. ‘
Titans Pass: Mariota has to be on some sleeper lists this week. I probably am not going to start him anywhere but he would be a guy on the low % own/higher upside type. He could also ruin your weekend if the Titans lean on their running game. Tajae Sharpe should be in all line ups this weekend. He plays outside and the Oakland Raiders are giving out yds and receptions to WRs like Halloween Candy so don’t let this guy sit on your bench if you can help it. Now is the time!
Titans Run: Murray has 14 targets in the passing game and he is cashing in on opps so far. I don’t see him maintaining this much of the work load but I think Henry is being brought along slowly, this week I expect to see a lot more from him as the Titans are going to want to play ball control where they can.
Final Score: Tennessee 24...Oakland 23, JDR misses on a 2 pt conversion as time expires.
Arizona at Buffalo +4 (47)
This is a great m/u for the AZ WRs this week, unfortunately most teams do not usually do that well airing it out up in Buffalo. So while I am going to go with the odds they do well, there is part of me that at least is slightly cautious to over reccomend. It is Sept though and th eweather should be relatively nice.
Larry Fitzgerald is getting 10-11 targets a week, for a guy retiring he sure is a big part of this offense. Michael Floyd is getting about half the number of targets of Fitzgerald. Whoever is covering the slot for Buffalo plus the Safety over the top depending on what side he lines up, they should be busy busy all day long. The other WRs for AZ are mostly a waste of space on your roster right now. That could change but maybe with Johnson being a bigger part of the offense, maybe they don’t need 3 different WRs closing in 1,000 yds receiving. I expect a pretty strong game from David Johnson, Buffalo has been giving away point to opposing RBs, Forte fresh off a 3 TD game.
The Bills are running a gimpy Sammy Watkins out there. Woods plays the other WR spot so I would assume Marquise Goodwin either subs for Watkins or is part of the 3 WR sets. I like Goodwin until the injury situation and reliable target info appears. Right now it’s a guessing game. The only solid play if probably LeSean McCoy although I figure the Cards know that as well. Expect a decent return this weekend. This is going to be a little closer than some folks think.
Final Score: Arizona 27...Buffalo 20, I think the Cards will pull away late.
Baltimore at Jacksonville Pk’em (41.5)
It’s tough to be definitive in this game. Here is what we know about the 2 teams so far…
Balt Pass: Flacco seems like a strong start this week. Pitta 8, St Smith 7, M.Wallace 6...those are the avg targets per game for those three players. This is a solid m/u for Mike Wallace again this week. Until defenses go out of their way to stop him just keep paying him. 3 Tds in 2 weeks and not all long bombs, he can catch the 10-20 intermediate route pretty well.
Balt Run: Forsett/West pretty split on the carries and touches, neither is making anyone forget about the other or searching for options. I would still leave them alone although this week you can almost smell a big run coming from one of them at some point.
Jax Pass: The Allen Bros don’t have a score the 1st 2 weeks of the season, that’s a problem. Targets are decent for both although Robinson fell sharply from 15 to 5 last week, Hurns went from 5 to 10 targets last week. TJ Yeldon is better suited for PPR Flex leagues, he has 15 targets on the season but he is ineffective as a straight runner. Even if Ivory is active this week I would pass. I don’t like guys coming off injuries but he hasn’t played at all yet and the injury has been guarded so i don’t really know what to expect when he makes it on the field. The running game for Jax is not happening right now.
Final Score: Jacksonville 21...Baltimore 19, The Ravens beat Buffalo who looked terrible and then they were getting beat by Cleveland before rallying, let’s see if they are a 3-0 team. I like Jax in a mild upset.
Cleveland at Miami -9.5 (41.5)
-Both are a little below avg at QB FFs allowed...one has a 3rd string QB
-Both are a little below avg at WR FFs allowed...rookie DB for Miami, can Cle exploit?
-Both are a little below avg at TE FFs allowed...Barnidge and Cameron...oh boy
-Both are solid/avg at RB FFs allowed...Miami is down to their 2nd and 3rd string RBs.
Miami will either exorcise some demons and blow Cleveland out or this is going to be a sloppy game that is much closer than the Vegas line would indicate and owners of guys like Parker are going to feel rooked on Sunday afternoon...which will it be?
Miami Pass: I think THill is a decent play this week but I do caution you to not get all caught up in his 2nd half heroics last week, that might not happen again. Parker and Landry seem like decent plays this week. With so many other defensive type games according to Vegas lines, maybe they have this one wrong or maybe Miami points are plentiful even within this projection. I would bench all Miami RBs until we see something worth playing.
Cleveland Pass: I like Coleman(OUT) this week as he should attack another rookie in Howard at DB. Pryor could also surprise if he manages to get isolated on Howard. Too bad the Browns don’t know if they have a guy who can exploit that.
Cleveland Run: I wouldn’t chase points but it seems like Crowell should do alright. Blount ran thru Miami like swiss cheese, surely Cleveland will try to get him loose on the ground. I expect Duke to see plenty of targets and perhaps a decent play in flex PPR role.
Final Score: Miami 35 to 6? 27 to 13? What if Cleveland were to win 27-14?...Miami 24...Cleveland 17, maybe the heat and humidity will swing in favor of Miami.
Washington at NY Giants -4 (46)
Plain and simple, this is not a good match up for the Skins and their passing game. That said, this is the perfect spot for Cousins to silence some of his critics with a performance not many are planning on. That doesn’t mean he will deliver either. The DL for the Giants is playing well and this is shaping into a playoff team.
Eli Manning looks like a pretty easy start this week unless you have Cam Newton on your roster already. I also think ODB has had a couple subpar weeks but he is being targeted plenty so I look for him to breakout of a slow start and find the end zone this week on the Skins. As far as Shepard and Cruz go, both are avg about 6 targets a game, Shep looks a little more explosive, Cruz looks like a great possession and red zone type threat. The trio cause a lot of headaches for opposing defenses.
If Jennings is healthy enough to start I would think about playing him. The Skins let both DeAngelo Williams and Elliott score, Jennings has to be on your radar despite not doing much last week. Vereen is always a flex option but little more. Washington is #2 in RB FFs allowed.
Just bench your Skins this week, DeSean Jackson included. Matt Jones is not a strong play this week either, Giants defense has been shutting skill position guys down for the most part. I could also understand Jordan Reed if you are feeling frisky.
Final Score: New York Giants 27...Washington 20
Detroit at Green Bay -7.5 (48)
The Lions are #8 in RB FFs allowed so Eddie Lacy is not a great look this week. The Packers are #1 overall however they faced a punchless Jags ground game and then AP went down last week with a torn meniscus. The Lions are down Abdullah for perhaps the rest of the year, 6-8 weeks at least it would seem. Dwayne Washington has been a big name on the WW this week, I wouldn’t expect a lot from him this week vs the Pack.
Aaron Rodgers has a juicy m/u this week with Detroit weighing in at #31 overall in QB defense. Targets looking like this...Nelson 10, Cobb 7-8, Adams, 7 and the TEs have a great m/u this week but is it Cook or Rodgers or neither? Cobb has been putting up avg numbers, a TD or two this week would go a long way.
Marvin Jones 10-11, Tate 8 but the targets for Tate are not putting him in position to exploit much. I have downgraded Tate for the season, despite the targets he is close to waivers in some leagues. The upside just doesn’t seem to be there right now. Jones will have to prove he can consistently hurt teams before they Tate is going to have a lot of breathing room. Also I saw that his slot opps have been cut in half almost based on snap counts, that’s not good. Boldin had a 2nd TD called back, keep an eye on his role on this team.
I like Eric Ebron a lot this week assuming he is healthy. GB is not great at covering the TE so far, Ebron should have plenty of open looks, his 2nd TD of the season on tap. Theo Riddick has a very tough m/u this week, not a big fan.
Final Score: Green Bay 34...Detroit 14, this has blow out written all over it.
Minnesota at Carolina -7 (43)
Will Sam Bradford’s strong play on MNF enable him to find success at Carolina? If they told you wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe them?
Both of the teams are middle of the road in terms of QB performances vs their defenses. I don’t think you run and start Bradford right now, you should have better options. In DFS I just couldn’t roll the dice on something like this except maybe in GPPs but you really are just shooting for the moon here. However, I will admit that Carolina is not a juggernaut yet in their secondary.
Cam all day and you don’t think twice about it. He might have to scratch and claw for his 250/2-3TDs but they’re coming and JStew is likely not playing so he will be asked to help out the ground game as well. I DO NOT like Kelvin Benjamin this week. 10-11 targets but I feel like the Vikings will key in on him. Look for Olsen to have a pretty big day all things considered. I expect him to push the seams down the middle of the field.
Stefon Diggs all day, do not sit this guy any week right now. He is a solid WR2 with upside, he might eventually be a WR1, he has the attitude that you need. Diggs is avg 140/.5TD per week, ride the train!!! Kyle Rudolph is avg 8 targets, you can think about a play here but I am not as confident in him this week as I am Diggs.
McKinnon/Asiata? Fozzy Whitaker? I kind of like Fozzy but the other side you don’t know yet. Seems like Asiata could start but then see lots of McKinnon after that. Interested in the SP take on these RB situations.
Final Score: Carolina 27...Minnesota 16
San Francisco at Seattle -9.5 (40)
Vegas is saying that Seattle is going to blow the Niners out and allow very few points this week in Seattle. Chip Kelly’s offense last week was pretty anemic despite the score. I don’t see them being a large factor in the game.
Carlos Hyde was getting touches last week but there wasn’t a lot of room to operate, this week could be worse. I would bench him unless you have nothing due to injuries. The SF WRs aren’t even worth mentioning this week.
Doug Baldwin has 9 FDs on his 12 catches, that keeps drives going. They need to get the ball to him a lot. Kearse and Lockett, one of them will have some success this weekend like a TD. Jimmy Graham has been coming along slowly but he has a nice m/u vs SF this week, can he exploit it?
Rawls seems hurt, would let him sit on your bench. C.Michael is still nothing to get totally excited about. He might be worth a look this week as Seattle figures to be ahead. Can you come up with a way SF wins this game? Wilson is hurt but he might have a surprise game this week getting the Seahawks up early so he can cruise from there.
Final Score: Seattle 24...San Fran 14
LA Rams at Tampa Bay -5 (41.5)
Doug Martin is OUT for the next 3 weeks at least. Charles Sims is going to see an increase in touches. Sims is a decent play in PPR leagues. The Rams allowed Hyde to get loose and I think Seattle can’t exploit soft rush defenses right now. Are the Rams soft? Let’s see how they handle the Bucs who aren’t a great running team right now.
Todd Gurley should have his biggest game of the season to date this weekend. Owners better hope for a 20 point performance.
The Rams have been tough on opposing Qbs to this point, still Winston presents some different dynamics over Gabbert and a gimpy Wilson, I expect Jameis to redeem himself a little for some horrific play at times last week. Mike Evans is likely to hit the box score at some point. He is getting 12 targets a game and VJax is looking older and older as each weeks passes.
I like Kenny Britt this week. He has 9 First Downs vs 3 to the next highest WR, he’s going to get targets and I expect him to be a good play this week, especially once Gurley gets defenses thinking run run run. Tavon Austin is getting 10 targets a week and doing nothing with them.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 20...LA Rams 14
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia +3.5 (46.5)
Wentz had another good game last week and is making a believer out of many FF fans. It’s not his production as much as it appears to be his leadership and having folks there believe in themselves. The STeelers are top 10 in FF Qb Defense so this might not be his best best week but I bet he pushes the Steelers avg up and not down.
Jordan Mathews is getting between 11-12 targets a week so far, he seems productive with the occasional drop. Keep Agholor on your bench right now but he also seems like he has a future in this offense. Ryan Mathews has 3 TDs in the 1st 2 weeks. The Steelers are middle of the road for FF rush Defense so I wouldn’t hesitate to insert him. He isn’t catching a lot of ball though and I think you might be a little TD reliant with him, so be aware.
DeAngelo Williams is a great play and must start this week. Big Ben and the WRs have their work cut out for them, Philly is #2 in FF QB Defense however it should be noted that was against RG3 and Jay Cutler, this week we will see if they are for real. Antonio Brown had a soft day last Sunday, Sammie Coates stock is up after an impressive Week 2.
Jesse James should be a bench play this week, Philly is tough vs opposing WRs, TEs, and yes QBs. I never discount the STeelers but they do not have a good m/u going into the weekend.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 24...Philly 20
New York Jets vs Kansas City -3 (43)
I believe KC will win this week and that is going to be tough for the Jets who look like a potential playoff team which they were almost last year. Both QBs, Fitz and Smith, neither of them is actually a great NFL QB, they can manage a game when they want, hit a few throws, but neither of them is Montana or Brady and never will be. So while I don’t think a whole lot of either of them in terms of NFL status, the fact is they can put up points and this week I think this could be a surprise higher score game if things unfold right.
The Jets are a little below avg vs opposing QBs and especially WRs where they are 2nd worst in the NFL mainly due to Revis Lagoon...used to be an island but now under water. Maclin should have a big week, Kelce not as much since both of the teams are pretty stingy to the TEs.
I like Brandon Marshall this week. He got hurt a little in Week 2 but he’s had 10 days rest and I hope he is ready to reclaim his spot as the best WR on this team. Decker will be fine and he will try and go deep on Revis once or twice, problem is Smith isn’t capable of hitting that pass consistently. Enunwa definitely has carved out his place but he was banged up last week and I think his story will take a back seat to Marshall for 1 week. Matt Forte is a must start with all his touches until the wheels come off if they even do.
Finally, the RB situation. Both Ware and West have been productive in spurts but the key stat is receiving where Ware has 7 FDs on like 9 catches and quadruple the yds of what West is avg per catch. I’m not going to blow this up more than it already is. Charles is likely OUT this week, still a week or two away from making any meaningful impact. Jets are top 10 in FF RB defense but I think Ware will push them well into the middle of the pack this week.
Final Score: Kansas City 24...New York Jets 17, possible defensive scores both sides.
San Diego at Indy -3 (52)
QB: Rivers is still a nice start this week, don’t care who he has to throw it to. The Chargers allow the 6th most QB FF on pass defense, absolutely no way around Luck being a big play this week. Both Rivers and Luck should be starting for owners this week.
RB: Melvin Gordon is one of the strongest plays of the week IMO. The Colts allow the most RB FFs of all the teams so Gordon is a must play this week. The unfortunate injury to Danny Woodhead leaves the door wide open for Gordon to get a ton of touches. Frank Gore is borderline playable this week but I stress borderline.
WR: Benjamin and Williams are worth a shot this week Both have upside and both are going to be asked to help San Diego keep pace with Indy. If either are available on your WW go get them. I also like Gates as a potential top 5 crash this week at TE. Someone is going to have multiple TDs.
The Colts are likely to be without Donte Moncrief so give a bump to Dorset, another guy who possibly could be on your WW and is an easy plug in and play this week. I am not expecting huge numbers but he and Hilton will be trying to stretch the field. That should leave Allen as a solid play at TE underneath this week. Most skill position starters in this game should be in your lineup.
Final Score: Indy 31...San Diego 21
Chicago at Dallas -7 (45)
-Dallas is not a juggernaut on defense just yet so expect someone like Langford who hasn’t been doing much to have a solid outing. And if he doesn’t then maybe a few more touches are in order for Jordan Howard who quietly had 3/22 on the ground last week.
-Alshon Jeffrey is producing high ypc but it is difficult to read what the missing Cutler will do to Alshon in the stats column. He and White plus Royal avg about the same amount of targets but Jeffrey produces more than Royal and White’s combined targets per game. Meaning they get about 12-14 per game and they cannot combine for what Jeffrey can do on his own with half their combined targets.
-Dallas is using Cole Beasley a lot. He has 9 targets a game and has 9 First Downs for the season, he is an integral part of the offense. Witten is seeing a lot of targets but his numbers went down some Week 1. Dez saw an increase in his targets last week and seems like Dallas wants to ensure the mental health of this guy and they are not forgetting about him. Those 3 are the primaries in the passing game, nobody else comes close to the number of targets these three will see over the course of a game.
-Elliott hasn’t done nearly as much as I thought he would when he entered the league. I also thought Dallas OL would be a lot better than it is. Not sure where they are ranking at PFF but this is not a PRO BOWL level line at the moment. They need to open more holes in the running game. There still is lots of time, like this coming week.
Final Score: Dallas 21...Chicago 17, I don’t see a huge score in this one.
Atlanta at New Orleans -3 (54)
The Saints have a slightly better defense of the two. They have been giving to the opposing WRs, about average vs QBs, good vs TEs but remember they faces Oak and the Giants, now they have ATlanta, seems like every week they face an elite WR be it Cooper, ODB, and Julio Jones this week. The Falcons on the other hand are showing up poor vs opposing Qbs, they are the 2nd worst vs opposing TEs which might make Coby Fleener a sleeper play that many will pass on based on the risk. Fleener is avg 6 targets a game.
Atlanta WR/TE: Julio 6-7, Sanu 6-7, Tamme 8, Coleman 4, Freeman 2...that’s the targets distribution. Saints are good vs opposing TEs so far, don’t feel like Tamme is the strong play this week. I expect bigger games from Julio and Sanu with new Orleans having to throw the lights out to keep pace, in short this should be a track meet.
Start the Iceman and Brees, both are strong plays it would seem. Brandin Cooks 9 targets a game and Snead also in the 8-9 range but Snead has converted a major 12 First Downs vs 7 by Cooks. Both are strong plays this week. Keep an eye on Michael Thomas, he could surprise as a 3rd receiver emerging in this one.
Coleman is getting a lot of press but he has a 3.4 ypc vs 4.0 by Freeman who holds a slight edge in the number of carries so far. Coleman has the edge at receiving right now. RBBC but both could score this week depending on the flow of the game. Mark Ingram also a must play this week.
Final Score: New Orleans 34...Atlanta 28
Good Luck everyone, have a great week!
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worthy. Though I have to say I cracked up over this:
