Fanduel Week 4 (1 Viewer)

First thoughts:

QB:  Kirk Cousins is in the best spot ever, well since last week anyway when Tannehill was in the exact same spot.  Id go so far as to say there isnt even a case to be made for any other QB in cash, but I do like Roethlisbrger and Cam if theres enough salary.

RB:  Oh man this is rough.  Can we trust Bell in his first week back?  He produced in his first game back last year.  Zeke?  Probably, but SF is alot better at home than on the road and as we saw last week Jason Garrett hates all of us.  LaGarrette Blount?  Seems obvious, obvious spot, obvious QB issues, obvious weak opponent, but Bill Belichick has seen this spot before and he REALLY hates us.  Forte?  The price is right, but if Fitzpatricks problems were an indication of something larger going on in that offense last week he could be in for another rough one.  Spencer Ware?  Is Charles back yet?  Jordan Howard?  Is Langford really out and if Detroit goes up 21-0 will they even try to run?  No clue at RB this week.

WR:  Now were talking.  As hard as RB is this week WR is easy.  Antonio Brown looks primed for a monster week.  Back at home after a rough loss, two weeks after getting shut down.  If I can find the salary this is where Im paying up.  And I may have 100% exposure to Marvin Jones too.  $7600 is still WAY too low.  He should be mid 8000s by now.  Then for one more week we get all those good WRs in the 6000s.  Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders, Travis Benjamin, Michael Crabtree, Tyrell Williams,

TE:  Dennis Pitta, set it and forget it

Don't know how the duplicate happened, but we can delete the other thread (took to long to type/post I guess)

Looking at the vegas lines, there isn't as many high scoring games, but of course some usual suspects that might have burned people last week are in the top 5 for expected team total: SD, Pitts, Az, and Indy.  Of course, those first 3 get to be at home this week. 

Just briefly looked at the QB this week, but the ones that stood out were:

Cousins (7600):  Jumped up in price a little, but like you said, he gets Cleveland at home.  If Tannehill was chalk last week, same should be the case for Cousins.

Flacco (7700): Stays about the same price, and gets Oakland at home who seems to be able to let anybody pass on them. 

Cam (9300) and Brees (8600) both vs. teams you can pass on, but both on the road, so we might have to look at that closer. 

How have the London games turned out?  It seems like that Jax/Indy game could turn into a shootout on paper...

Brutal.  I typed all this stuff out on the London game and when I submit my internet goes down and I lose it.  One more time I guess.

There have been 14 London games so far.  This Saturday's game will have the highest O/U yet at 49.5, the previous highest was the first game played there at 47.5.  The average O/U is 43.67 and these games have historically gone over by an average of 5.25 points.  6 games have gone under, and 8 over.  This obviously means the London game is prone to blowouts.  The margins of victory in the 14 games have been 1, 3 ,3 ,5 ,6 ,7 ,8 ,13 ,14 , 24, 28, 32, 35, 38.  9 of the 14 games have been won by at least a TD and 6 of the 14 by at least 2 TDs.

The difference between the actual totals from the game and the O/U is: -24.5, -2.5, -.2.5, -2, -1.5, -1.5, 3, 6, 10, 11, 12, 19.5, 23, 23.5.  That means 6 of the 14 games have gone over by at least a TD.  Cumulatively London games go over by an average of 5.25 points.  It is worth noting this is only the second divisional London game.  The previous one was played last year by the Dolphins and Jets.  It went under by 1.5 points, and the Jets won by 13.

If we exclude the first game played there, the sample set gets even more interesting.  That game had an O/U of 47.5, but only 23 total points were scored.  Looking only at the previous 13 London games the O/U has cumulatively gone over by an average of 7.5 points.


My personal opinion is that teams that were already struggling just get demolished by the London game.  It takes them out of their normal routine and they are unable to address whatever chemistry/gameplan issues that already exist in the team.  That sounds like the Jags to me this week.


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 

NixonMask said:

First thoughts:

RB:  Oh man this is rough.  Can we trust Bell in his first week back?  He produced in his first game back last year.  Zeke?  Probably, but SF is alot better at home than on the road and as we saw last week Jason Garrett hates all of us.  LaGarrette Blount?  Seems obvious, obvious spot, obvious QB issues, obvious weak opponent, but Bill Belichick has seen his spot before and he REALLY hates us.  Forte?  The price is right, but if Fitzpatricks problems were an indication of something larger going on in that offense last week he could be in for another rough one.  Spencer Ware?  Is Charles back yet?  Jordan Howard?  Is Langford really out and if Detroit goes up 21-0 will they even try to run?  No clue at RB this week.

 

Click to expand...

Yeah, this one is a bit worse from last week.  On first glance it looks like similar options to last week. 

We have Bell, Johnson, and Gordon at home, favored and in decent matchups as far as pts. allowed to RBs.  Like you said, can we trust Bell?  Gordon didn't blow people away like we thought he could last week against another supposedly bad D against the run in a high scoring game. 

I think Blount is next up.  I think he is as safe as there is to get touches until Lewis gets back.  He has looked good, and it hasn't mattered yet who they have played or have had at QB. 

Others (again, just like last week):

Anderson:  Denver is actually favored on the road and TB has given up a lot of pts to Rbs. 

Elliot: Will get yds, but people aren't liking the no Tds and SF is at home. 

Gore: Still think he's a safe bet to get cash value again, and is still a good price at 6100

Atleast we got a little clarity.  Langford is out so Howard is the primary back.  Pretty sure Ill be priced into starting him but Id be alot happier about it if I was sure he was actually good.

Early cash LU

Stafford

Gordon/Gore

ABrown/tpryor/tben

Pita

Prayer

Houst

Im just spending a bit of time on Sharps website and a few matchups are really sticking out immediately.  One is Michael Crabtree against the Ravens this week.  The Ravens are dead last in the NFL at preventing successful plays to WRs within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Crabtree rates as the 17th best in the NFL in those situations.  Larry Fitzgerald is the 6th most successful WR going up against the 31st rated defense in those situations.  After get humiliated on the road you have to assume the Cardinals come home and fall back on what they know, which is a heavy dose of Larry.  But the matchup thats got the big flashing neon lights is Stephon Diggs.  He is the #3 WR within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and the Giants are the 30th worst.  Diggs is going to win someone a million dollars again this weekend.

Edit: And this matchup really shouldnt be a surprise to anyone, but the Browns are dead last against deep passes and DeSean Jackson is the #8 rated receiver on those passes.

Edit #2:  Ok last one.  The Steelers are dead last against pass catching RBs by a large margain.  If Charles is out again Spencer Ware is going to eat.

NixonMask said:

Im just spending a bit of time on Sharps website and a few matchups are really sticking out immediately.  One is Michael Crabtree against the Ravens this week.  The Ravens are dead last in the NFL at preventing successful plays to WRs within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.  Crabtree rates as the 17th best in the NFL in those situations.  Larry Fitzgerald is the 6th most successful WR going up against the 31st rated defense in those situations.  After get humiliated on the road you have to assume the Cardinals come home and fall back on what they know, which is a heavy dose of Larry.  But the matchup thats got the big flashing neon lights is Stephon Diggs.  He is the #3 WR within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and the Giants are the 30th worst.  Diggs is going to win someone a million dollars again this weekend.

Edit: And this matchup really shouldnt be a surprise to anyone, but the Browns are dead last against deep passes and DeSean Jackson is the #8 rated receiver on those passes.

Edit #2:  Ok last one.  The Steelers are dead last against pass catching RBs by a large margain.  If Charles is out again Spencer Ware is going to eat.

Click to expand...

Interesting stats.  I assume this is a pay site?

Its a free site.  Alot of analytics; I wouldnt call it user friendly, but the data is awesome.  Sharpfootballstats.  He also does a podcast thats very analytics based with Evan Silva.  Its still pretty new, but Id rate it right behind The Audible, On the Couch, and The DFS Power Grid on the list of must listen fantasy football podcasts.

Where are all the $2 50/50's?   It looks like the $2 lobby is mostly beginner contests.  

ETA...seems to be a selection for the Sun-Mon ticket, but not the Main.

NixonMask said:

Its a free site.  Alot of analytics; I wouldnt call it user friendly, but the data is awesome.  Sharpfootballstats.  He also does a podcast thats very analytics based with Evan Silva.  Its still pretty new, but Id rate it right behind The Audible, On the Couch, and The DFS Power Grid on the list of must listen fantasy football podcasts.

Click to expand...

Wow. That's a lot of information. It's kind of overwhelming for a mental lightweight like me. I'm going to have to bite this off a tiny piece at a time. 

My first stab at a cash lineup has me struggling to spend all my salary, assuming Charles sits for another week. In that scenario I'm going to have a hard time pivoting off of Ware and Howard. I'm also liking T. Benjamin and Ma. Jones @ WR and Pitta @ TE. Throw in Cousins and I've got $21,000 for DEF, PK, and a WR. 

NixonMask said:

Edit #2:  Ok last one.  The Steelers are dead last against pass catching RBs by a large margain.  If Charles is out again Spencer Ware is going to eat.

Click to expand...

Football Outsiders has the Steelers ranked 30th vs passing offense to the RB.  NO is 32nd, TB is 31st.  FWIW

Tennessee_ATO said:

Wow. That's a lot of information. It's kind of overwhelming for a mental lightweight like me. I'm going to have to bite this off a tiny piece at a time. 

Click to expand...

Yeah, Im mainly using the TORS ratings for individual players on offense and for the whole team on defense.  From there you can highlight by position and pass distance.

DukeBroadway said:

Football Outsiders has the Steelers ranked 30th vs passing offense to the RB.  NO is 32nd, TB is 31st.  FWIW

Click to expand...

Its his own rating system.  Which is the magic of numbers, you can make them tell pretty much any story you want.  His numbers have been good so far though.  Last week they had me on Adam Humphries.  I am willing to go out on a limb and so no one else was saying get your shares of Adam Humphries last week but me.

I think KC sits Charles till aftet the bye.   I like Ware here.   Those pitt vs rb numbers i am sure are skewed by that killer Sproles catch and run.   Have to count it though.  It is what it is. 

They definitely are, but If you take the Philadelphia game out of the numbers Pittsburgh is still rated #29 against pass catching backs.

Good info.  Thanks for sharing that other analytical site.   Will take a look at that tonight when i start targeting players for line up builds. 

Dodds' early rankings optimal lineup


 


 


 


 


 


 


Name


SAL


FBG


 


QB


Trevor Siemian


7,400


18.5


 


RB


Melvin Gordon


7,600


16.7


 


RB


LeVeon Bell


8,300


19.8


 


WR


Travis Benjamin


6,600


13.6


 


WR


Antonio Brown


9,400


18.5


 


WR


Marvin Jones


7,600


15.1


 


TE


Hunter Henry


4,500


10


 


PK


Dustin Hopkins


4,500


11



 


DEF


Tennessee Titans


4,100


8.7


 


 


 


 


 


 


Total


 


60,000


131.7


 


 


 


 


 


 

A lot of info on that site, once i'm able to fully understand what i'm looking at, it should be really helpful. Thanks for sharing. 

I am not sure I can start bell his first week back.  Yes they say he is in condition and been working out, but game condition is a completely different animal.  I have a feeling it will be close to 50/50 with how well williams has been playing.  Thats just my gut feeling, which has been wrong many times in the past..lol

Tennessee_ATO said:

My first stab at a cash lineup has me struggling to spend all my salary, assuming Charles sits for another week. In that scenario I'm going to have a hard time pivoting off of Ware and Howard. I'm also liking T. Benjamin and Ma. Jones @ WR and Pitta @ TE. Throw in Cousins and I've got $21,000 for DEF, PK, and a WR. 

Click to expand...

I was having the same problem.  Im pretty certain my WRs this week are Benjamin, Crabtree, and Fitzgerald.  At kicker theres two great choices at min price so theres not much of a reason to pay up.  For TE I like Olson the most, but Pitta is not much worse and costs $2500 less.  Maybe Cam?

So Marvin Jones runs about twice as many routes from the right side as the left.  The Bears are actually pretty good against the pass on the right.  Similiar with Diggs, the majority of his routes are on the right side and in the middle of the field.  The Giants are actually pretty decent there.  They are very weak to deep passes up the middle, and everywhere on the left though.  Im just chalking this up to limited data from being so early in the season.  Everything Ive seen out of both defenses makes me think these guys are going to produce, but its something to consider.

 

wyattroa said:

I am not sure I can start bell his first week back.  Yes they say he is in condition and been working out, but game condition is a completely different animal.  I have a feeling it will be close to 50/50 with how well williams has been playing.  Thats just my gut feeling, which has been wrong many times in the past..lol

Click to expand...

Bell is one of if not the most talented RB in the NFL... on SNF and coming back from a 3 game suspension, hes going to want to be fed, which they will do.

Surprised I'm not seeing many posting about Kelvin vs. Atlanta for $7700... After getting shut out last week and coaches saying they need to fix that... especially vs. Weak Falcon D I expect him to have a very good day.

snogger said:

Surprised I'm not seeing many posting about Kelvin vs. Atlanta for $7700... After getting shut out last week and coaches saying they need to fix that... especially vs. Weak Falcon D I expect him to have a very good day.

Click to expand...

I thought the same thing, and then when I was poking around on the IVC, the average puts him at WR21 (and that's only because Bloom likes him 3-4pts more than the other two).  Trufant is a good CB, so maybe people are thinking he can take Benjamin out of the game for the most part?

I don't think I am smart enough to navigate that stat site. 

Yeah its not very user friendly.  If you give it another shot youre going to want two tabs of the page open at all times.  The first set of tabs Ive mostly been looking at are the TOARS page for individual offensive players and I check that against the team TOARS team page for the defense that player is playing.  The second set of tab I look at are the offensive directional receiving cones for individual offensive players against the opposing defenses team directional receiving cones.  Some other good stats on the page are the % of successful offensive plays.  So it doesnt look at a RBs YPC which can be warped by 1 long run, but it looks at the frequency a player gains enough yards on a play that their offense can expect to stay on the field.  So I think its like "Did this play gain 40-50% of the yards a team needs on first down?  If yes then it was a successful play, if not then no.  Did this play gain 60% of the yards a team needs to on second down?  And did this play gain enough yards to make a first down, on third down? 

snogger said:

Surprised I'm not seeing many posting about Kelvin vs. Atlanta for $7700... After getting shut out last week and coaches saying they need to fix that... especially vs. Weak Falcon D I expect him to have a very good day.

Click to expand...

All of the injuries out there are presenting some really good value in back-up players. Given that, it will give me the ability to throw in a Cam/Kelvin/Olsen triple-stack in one of my GPP's. I definitely agree about Benjamin here.

reel_smooth said:

All of the injuries out there are presenting some really good value in back-up players. Given that, it will give me the ability to throw in a Cam/Kelvin/Olsen triple-stack in one of my GPP's. I definitely agree about Benjamin here.

Click to expand...

Trufant did an outstanding job on B.Cooks this past week...just sayin.

jimmy b said:

Trufant did an outstanding job on B.Cooks this past week...just sayin.

Click to expand...

Brandon Cooks 5'10"

Marcus Trufant 5'11"

Kelvin Benjamin 6'5"

Am I the only one looking over defense's this week and a little

Washington is facing a rookie QB.. But it is Washington..

Panthers aren't too expensive.. But they are at Atlanta

Cowboys at 49ers ??

Cheapest is probably Lions at Bears with Langford and probably Cutler out

Early cash lineup

Cousins
Howard
Ware
Brown
Jones Jr
Benjamin
Pitta
Gostkowski
ARZ

dat rb core

bcberg said:

Early cash lineup

Cousins
Howard
Ware
Brown
Jones Jr
Benjamin
Pitta
Gostkowski
ARZ

Click to expand...

I would think about something different with your rbs in a cash game.  If you are hellbent on that Qb and WR core, you probably could go a little cheaper with your K and D and upgrade at least one of the Rbs.  I would just be nervous about having 2 rbs from teams that are projected to be behind in their games.  

KarmaPolice said:

I would think about something different with your rbs in a cash game.  If you are hellbent on that Qb and WR core, you probably could go a little cheaper with your K and D and upgrade at least one of the Rbs.  I would just be nervous about having 2 rbs from teams that are projected to be behind in their games.  

Click to expand...

Assuming that is TBenjamin, but I agree, I would hang on to Ware based on Pitt's struggles against RBs in the passing game and down grade at K and Def, there are several lesser Kickers worth having like Lambo, Lutz, Prater and Bailey and a couple of mid range Ds like Minn, Wash and Det that should allow an up grade at your RB2

Megla said:

Assuming that is TBenjamin, but I agree, I would hang on to Ware based on Pitt's struggles against RBs in the passing game and down grade at K and Def, there are several lesser Kickers worth having like Lambo, Lutz, Prater and Bailey and a couple of mid range Ds like Minn, Wash and Det that should allow an up grade at your RB2

Click to expand...

There was something on rotoworld that suggested moving off of Ware as well, since it looks to be a game where KC is behind and he and West split the duties for passing situations, limiting his floor even more. 

Cash early LU

Newton

Gordon 

Howard

Brown

Jones jr 

T. Benjamin

Henry

 Hopkins

Texans

Could pivot to Pitta,  Fitz,  Nuk from Brown,  Jones jr,  Henry

KarmaPolice said:

I would think about something different with your rbs in a cash game.  If you are hellbent on that Qb and WR core, you probably could go a little cheaper with your K and D and upgrade at least one of the Rbs.  I would just be nervous about having 2 rbs from teams that are projected to be behind in their games.  

Click to expand...

Megla said:

Assuming that is TBenjamin, but I agree, I would hang on to Ware based on Pitt's struggles against RBs in the passing game and down grade at K and Def, there are several lesser Kickers worth having like Lambo, Lutz, Prater and Bailey and a couple of mid range Ds like Minn, Wash and Det that should allow an up grade at your RB2

Click to expand...

But who do you upgrade to? Is there any pricier RB out there that you feel good about in cash? That's the issue I'm having getting off Howard and Ware myself. I like David Johnson, but he's so much more than Howard you have to retool your WR. Bell is obviously a stud, but I can totally see Pitt either (a) falling behind early (I've got a feeling that defense is atrocious) or (b) giving DWill some work. And he's priced to have a big game @ $8300. Forte has a brutal matchup. Gordon and CJ have some appeal, but neither has been consistent in his own right. 

Howard doesn't have to do much to be OK at his price point so long as the savings are reasonably well-spent.

Tennessee_ATO said:

But who do you upgrade to? Is there any pricier RB out there that you feel good about in cash? That's the issue I'm having getting off Howard and Ware myself. I like David Johnson, but he's so much more than Howard you have to retool your WR. Bell is obviously a stud, but I can totally see Pitt either (a) falling behind early (I've got a feeling that defense is atrocious) or (b) giving DWill some work. And he's priced to have a big game @ $8300. Forte has a brutal matchup. Gordon and CJ have some appeal, but neither has been consistent in his own right. 

Howard doesn't have to do much to be OK at his price point so long as the savings are reasonably well-spent.

Click to expand...

I see several options, but I'm heavy on Gordon/CJ/Michaels/McCoy at RB in cash games

RB2-CJ with Lambo/Minn

or any of Gordon/McCoy/Michaels with a lesser Ki/Def

Looks like

Cousin

Ware/Gordon

AB/MJJR/TBen

Pitta

Prater

Houst

is the best combo

Tennessee_ATO said:

But who do you upgrade to? Is there any pricier RB out there that you feel good about in cash? That's the issue I'm having getting off Howard and Ware myself. I like David Johnson, but he's so much more than Howard you have to retool your WR. Bell is obviously a stud, but I can totally see Pitt either (a) falling behind early (I've got a feeling that defense is atrocious) or (b) giving DWill some work. And he's priced to have a big game @ $8300. Forte has a brutal matchup. Gordon and CJ have some appeal, but neither has been consistent in his own right. 

Howard doesn't have to do much to be OK at his price point so long as the savings are reasonably well-spent.

Click to expand...

That's a fair point.  I probably just focus on trying to get RBs from teams that are favored and have higher projected team points too much for cash games.  Personally, I would rather have Gore and Riddick around that same price point for those reasons.  Gore is 6100 and Riddick is 6600.  Both are projected at over 2x, and provide a safer floor for cash, IMO. 

I have just been doing the opposite this week with rosters - paying up for Rbs and going cheaper at WR and Qb. 

Currently what I have is:

Siemian

David J, Bell

Marvin, Fitz, Crabtree

Henry

Hopkins

Houston

Gonna play with that a little see if I can get Cousins/Sanders in there instead of Siemian/Crabtree. 

Henry and Houst might be the most played TE and Def this week, seems everyone is on them

Megla said:

Henry and Houst might be the most played TE and Def this week, seems everyone is on them

Click to expand...

We are talking cash, so I don't worry about that as much.  Henry especially lets me get a little more for a WR I like.  I might go a different route on D though. 

ETA:  Also, I assumed Pitta was everybody's play of the week.

Megla said:

I see several options, but I'm heavy on Gordon/CJ/Michaels/McCoy at RB in cash games

RB2-CJ with Lambo/Minn

or any of Gordon/McCoy/Michaels with a lesser Ki/Def

Looks like

Cousin

Ware/Gordon

AB/MJJR/TBen

Pitta

Prater

Houst

is the best combo

Click to expand...

You don't worry about doubling-up with Gordon and T. Benjamin?  I agree that it seems likely for the 2 of them to combine for value at a total salary of $14,200 against a brutally bad NO team, but that's nearly 25% of your total salary to devote to a San Diego team that's a bit of a mess and that can be incredibly inconsistent.

The O/U on the MIA/CIN game has jumped 2 points since last night.

Tennessee_ATO said:

You don't worry about doubling-up with Gordon and T. Benjamin?  I agree that it seems likely for the 2 of them to combine for value at a total salary of $14,200 against a brutally bad NO team, but that's nearly 25% of your total salary to devote to a San Diego team that's a bit of a mess and that can be incredibly inconsistent.

Click to expand...

Not with it being NO, most any other team then yes, if that's causing hesitation then you can always use Blount/McCoy/Michaels to move away from SD or you could use Crabtree instead of TBen

thu-mon mini squib gpp

flacco

bell,johnson

parker,k Benjamin,smith

rudolph

hopkins

pats

thu-mon 50/50

stafford

Johnson,gordon

green,landry,m thomas

doyle

bailey

minn

Raging weasel said:

thu-mon mini squib gpp

flacco

bell,johnson

parker,k Benjamin,smith

rudolph

hopkins

pats

thu-mon 50/50

stafford

Johnson,gordon

green,landry,m thomas

doyle

bailey

minn

Click to expand...

Have you noticed any difference in the cash lines for Mon-Thurs games vs. the main slate?

I put my Denver power into a $1 Mon-Thurs gpp, but I don't have any Thurs or Monday players in it. 

Thursday practice reports are almost all out.  Howard looks good to go, Kadeem Cary and Jeremy Langford were both DNP.  Marvin Jones was a DNP.  Charcandrick West a DNP so Spencer Ware should get a healthy workload.  Decker and Watkins both DNP at WR.  Marvin Jones was limited too, maybe this weeks Willie Snead?

Last week was the only other time I played the thur-mon slate so not a big sample size but the t/m cashline for my contests was 107-109 and main was 113-117. I'm also only small stakes and play $1gpp and $2 50/50 and leagues.

Raging weasel said:

Last week was the only other time I played the thur-mon slate so not a big sample size but the t/m cashline for my contests was 107-109 and main was 113-117. I'm also only small stakes and play $1gpp and $2 50/50 and leagues.

Click to expand...

This is pretty consistent w/ my data from last year in $2/$5 double-ups and triple-ups. 

Raging weasel said:

Last week was the only other time I played the thur-mon slate so not a big sample size but the t/m cashline for my contests was 107-109 and main was 113-117. I'm also only small stakes and play $1gpp and $2 50/50 and leagues.

Click to expand...

Same here. 

Noticed the same thing for DK last week.  Cuts were a bit lower for the Mon-Thurs games there last week too.   Unfortunately on FD you can't adjust lineups, and with my Snead debacle last week in my Mon-Thurs cash games on FD, I am hesitant to play many 50/50s that way, but thought I would throw a buck at the $1 gpp.