i think we all agree thats fine for 3x and 5x but why would you feel like you had to do that for the HU/50-50/DUs too?
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Fanduel Week 4 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NixonMask
- Start date
Pretty sure he said he felt like you had to have your QB perform well to cash so why not stack
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'm willing to gamble on Pittsburgh because they will not get blown out like that again. They're going to come out on fire I'm betting, but Marcus Peters kind of worries me with AB. As for Bell/Ben I'm not worried in the slightest but I could probably go somewhere safer like Stafford or Rivers or something.
Now that you mention it's more of a gpp lineup I agree and honestly didn't see it before because I'm so optimistic on these guys. So I assumed my optimism is for cash. But Yeah I see the gpp appeal. I'll toy with it a bit. Thanks for the feedback.
nicholasm3
Footballguy
Do we have any idea who will be on Enunwa most of the game? I love him due to price/targets, just curious on the Hawks D.
bro1ncos
IBL Representative
I believe Sea typically keeps their corners on specific sides, so I think NYJ can dictate.
these are pretty close to exactly my 2 cash lineups. i might be thinking about a safer combo than marvin/enunwa though.
bro1ncos
IBL Representative
With Decker out, I think Enunwa's volume should be significant and a very safe play. I worry more about Marvin regressing from last week.
Any input on playing both DAL receivers in a cash game. That's the one I am more worried about, but I like the other options it gives me with more studs.
marvin may not play and certainly wont be 100% if he goes. eneunwa may get a bunch of targets but its by far the lowest scoring game otb so not a spot where i really wanna get involved.
i just think williams is awful so no. beasley i think is an awesome play in cash games this week. super solid floor with a little upside too (in before 1 catch for 7 yds).
i just think williams is awful so no. beasley i think is an awesome play in cash games this week. super solid floor with a little upside too (in before 1 catch for 7 yds).
nicholasm3
Footballguy
Im on Beasley for sure. Not so much TWill. Marvin worries me due to it being a hammy, sure they said he was fine but hes a deep ball WR and its a hammy. Im not sure what to do with him. Bears secondary is putrid.
Where are you seeing this?
He was a full participant in Fridays practice and showed no signs OF the hammy being an issues. Everything I've read has said he is good to go
hmm the last thing i saw said legit questionable, true gtd. but i did see the reports from practice that he practiced full and looked good. not sure about this one.
chet
Footballguy
Need some advice on a "friends" game that I play weekly with 4 total entries. Each GM puts in $100/week. 1st takes $300 and 2nd gets his money back. I won the first week and took 2nd in weeks 2 & 3. I'd say the competition is relatively weak. Just wondering how I should be designing my lineups more like cash entries or more likes MPPs.
Here are a couple lineups I've been considering:
1: (Courtesy of DD) Newton, Bell, Ingram, Brown, Beasley, Sanders, Miller, Lambo, Redskins
2: Cousins, Bell, Miller, Brown, Beasley, Jones, Henry, Lambo, Redskins
Anyone have any thoughts? Given that the competition is relatively weak, I'd lean to more cash like lineups but am open to advice.
Here are a couple lineups I've been considering:
1: (Courtesy of DD) Newton, Bell, Ingram, Brown, Beasley, Sanders, Miller, Lambo, Redskins
2: Cousins, Bell, Miller, Brown, Beasley, Jones, Henry, Lambo, Redskins
Anyone have any thoughts? Given that the competition is relatively weak, I'd lean to more cash like lineups but am open to advice.
With only 4 entries then you really should use cash line UPS, low floors will win money for you until the other players catch up and realize that they need to start the players with the smallest variance. Then you may need to start looking at getting players other than the chalk, but with only 4 players you really only need 2 or 3 contrarian plays
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
it means that the smart money is coming in on chicago and therefore the bears should be in this game. as has already been stated, last week the team that fit this pattern was buffalo and they won outright.
as the spread is only 3 i dont think anyone really expected a blowout anyway, but the 'wiseguys' dont think the lions will run away with this one.
as the spread is only 3 i dont think anyone really expected a blowout anyway, but the 'wiseguys' dont think the lions will run away with this one.
NixonMask
Footballguy
Pretty much what sooted72 said. The only difference between this week and last with the Bills is that the line isnt moving at all. Last week it was moving towards Buffalo in spite of the money coming in on Arizona. It was really clear that Vegas liked Buffalo ALOT. That makes it a little harder to analyze exactly what is going on this week. In both the DET/CHI game and the TB/DEN game the spread is exactly a field goal. 3 is a very important number in sports betting, alot of games end 21-24 or 28-31 for instance. So them not wanting to come off that and make Det -3.5 or Den -3.5 could mean a few things. It could mean they either like the other side to win straight up, or for it to end 21-20 or something like that. Or it could just mean theyre fine with the possibility of a push if either team wins by a FG and dont want to risk moving it to 3.5 and having the favorite win by a FG. It could also mean they dont trust the bets that have been made so far, they could think smart betters are making smaller bets earlier in the week on Detroit or Denver in the hopes of driving the line up. Then at the end of the week they can come in an place a much larger bet on the other side once the line has moved in their favor. Whatever the reason though its safe to assume the smart money is on Tampa Bay and Chicago this week. That means those teams are probably going to score more points than their lines suggests. It could also mean Detroit is going to score less than the line suggests. It could also mean the players are going to score more/less points that their prices suggest.
Im just regurgitating alot of what TipAnd Pick said, but if Tampa and Chicago are going to over perform how are they going to do it? Are Winston and Evans going to burn the Denver D? I doubt it, so Charles Sims is someone to look at. And for Chicago that means alot of people are in play. Jordan Howard is priced way down. Alshon is always a threat to go off, but hes gimpy. If he is slowed, and covered by Detroits one good corner (Slay) that probably means Zach Miller or Kevin White.
Im just regurgitating alot of what TipAnd Pick said, but if Tampa and Chicago are going to over perform how are they going to do it? Are Winston and Evans going to burn the Denver D? I doubt it, so Charles Sims is someone to look at. And for Chicago that means alot of people are in play. Jordan Howard is priced way down. Alshon is always a threat to go off, but hes gimpy. If he is slowed, and covered by Detroits one good corner (Slay) that probably means Zach Miller or Kevin White.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Very interesting, thanks for clearing that up you two. I THINK I understand that. So the difference between the situations is that last week because the line moved to Buffalo, Vegas was saying that they really liked the Bills a lot, and because it didn't move this week despite the heavy action it means more that they still like Chic/TB, but more on the lines of a close game and at least them not losing by more than 3?
NixonMask
Footballguy
Its just a more ambiguous situation. I am still confidant the smart money is on Tampa Bay and Chicago this weekend, but I am less certain as to why than I was last weekend. Last weekend was easy, Vegas thought Buffalo would win the game outright so the line kept moving towards Buffalo even though the money was going on Arizona. This week theres just nothing happening. The line should be moving towards Denver and Detroit, but its not, its just sitting there. TipAndPick or Devin Knotts could probably explain with more certainty the reasons for why the lines are doing what they are, but as I am looking at it I can think of about half a dozen possible explanations. Thankfully even though I can think of a lot of possible explanations they all lead to pretty much the same conclusions.
NixonMask
Footballguy
Does anyone have any thoughts on Jacob Tamme this weekend? Im throwing about 40 Cam lineups in a multi-entry GPP. 40% of the entries Im using Olson as my TE and the remaining 60% I am splitting between Pitta and Tamme, the only question is whats the split? I was thinking about a 40/40/20 split with Olson/ Pitta/ Tamme but consensus among all the experts has Tamme rated pretty low. Isnt the way to attack Carolina with the TE? And Tamme was a main target in the offense the first two weeks. Am I underthinking this? After a game where he disappoints Tamme feels like hes in a prime rebound spot.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Gotcha - usually the line would move to Denv/Det because all the money is coming in on that side, so they would want to give Chic/TB more points to entice people to throw bets that way to even it up a bit?
usually the bookmakers want even money on both sides so they have an automatic 10% profit. when tons of money comes in on one side, usually they move the line in that direction to balance out the action. for example, line opens lions -3. tons of money comes in on detroit. they move to lions -3.5 to get more action on chicago to balance.
in this case tons of public money is coming in on denver (83%) and detroit (80%) yet the line hasnt moved. this generally means that the 'smart money' or 'wise guys' or even the bookmakers themselves are fine with the action and clearly think they are on the right side. fwiw its kind of a big misconception that bookmakers always want to be dead even for the guaranteed money. a lot of times they are perfectly happy having tons of money on a side they love. this increases their variance ofc but is obv profitable in the long run.
it should be noted also (and i think nixonmask already said this) that since both games are on 3 it may just be that they don't want to move off it since its such an important number. so after having said all that, the line action (inaction?) may not even mean that they feel like theyre on the right side. they just may not want to go above 3 for obvious reasons.
in this case tons of public money is coming in on denver (83%) and detroit (80%) yet the line hasnt moved. this generally means that the 'smart money' or 'wise guys' or even the bookmakers themselves are fine with the action and clearly think they are on the right side. fwiw its kind of a big misconception that bookmakers always want to be dead even for the guaranteed money. a lot of times they are perfectly happy having tons of money on a side they love. this increases their variance ofc but is obv profitable in the long run.
it should be noted also (and i think nixonmask already said this) that since both games are on 3 it may just be that they don't want to move off it since its such an important number. so after having said all that, the line action (inaction?) may not even mean that they feel like theyre on the right side. they just may not want to go above 3 for obvious reasons.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Not sure if it's the best way to go about it, but I had a lot of fun doing it and it seem to fall into place nicely:
I was staring at my list of 4-5 WRs, 4 RBs, 4TEs for gpps. I was thinking about doing one "bigger" entry (3 whole dollars!!) gpp, but what I ended up doing is putting in 4 $1 entries into the same tournament. I have a core of 4 WRs that I used (2 are the same in all of them), and then I just did a stack for each of their Qbs that also seemed to probably be lower owned guys. All 4 LUs have a different QB, TE, and D and I didn't use a Rb more than twice.
Is this a valid way to attack it, or should I have sacked up and decided on one LU I like the best?
I was staring at my list of 4-5 WRs, 4 RBs, 4TEs for gpps. I was thinking about doing one "bigger" entry (3 whole dollars!!) gpp, but what I ended up doing is putting in 4 $1 entries into the same tournament. I have a core of 4 WRs that I used (2 are the same in all of them), and then I just did a stack for each of their Qbs that also seemed to probably be lower owned guys. All 4 LUs have a different QB, TE, and D and I didn't use a Rb more than twice.
Is this a valid way to attack it, or should I have sacked up and decided on one LU I like the best?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Raging weasel
Footballguy
$1 mini squib
luck (9.1%)
howard
elliot
ty(22.9%)
brown
ty williams
doyle(4.3%)
cantaz
jets
luck (9.1%)
howard
elliot
ty(22.9%)
brown
ty williams
doyle(4.3%)
cantaz
jets
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Still a very low pt output projected for that game. I don't think I used anything from that game besides the two Ds.
He is projected 30+% from what I am seeing..I've tried and just can not pivot off Melvin Gordan at his price( $7600) vs. the Saints... If he has a crappy game my line-ups are going to need help from others as he is on all of them
also wanted to point out that chalk doesnt matter for cash games, but it does for gpps. so if you want to diversify theres plenty of acceptable similarly-priced gpp options. shady, blount, murray, etc. also probably want to throw in a sd wr or lambo or something like that for the positive correlation too.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
My current cash lineup's. Feel free to criticize/belittle:
Cousins
Gordon/Howard
Pryor/Antonio/T. Willisms
Kelce
Prater
Denver
Smith
Leveon/Da. Johnson
Beasley/Pryor/T. Benjsmin
Reed
Novak
Arizons
Cousins
Gordon/Howard
Pryor/Antonio/T. Willisms
Kelce
Prater
Denver
Smith
Leveon/Da. Johnson
Beasley/Pryor/T. Benjsmin
Reed
Novak
Arizons
chet
Footballguy
DukeBroadway
Footballguy
snogger
Footballguy
Just looked over my 4 line-ups for the week ( 2 are survior leagues, 1 is gpp and the other is Cash) and realized I'm 100% in on both Melvin and Kelvin
(FBG Survivor) T. Siemian, Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, Emmanuel Sanders, Marvin Jones Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, Hunter Henry, Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona
(5 week survivor) Drew Brees, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin, Marvin Jones Jr., Michael Thomas, TE D. Pitta, Nick Novak, New England Patriots
(gpp) Trevor Siemian, LeGarrette Blount, Melvin Gordon, Kelvin Benjamin, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, Hunter Henry, Josh Lambo, New England Patriots
(Cash )QB P. Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, Kelvin Benjamin, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, Hunter Henry, Nick Novak, New England Patriots
(FBG Survivor) T. Siemian, Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, Emmanuel Sanders, Marvin Jones Jr., Kelvin Benjamin, Hunter Henry, Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona
(5 week survivor) Drew Brees, Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Kelvin Benjamin, Marvin Jones Jr., Michael Thomas, TE D. Pitta, Nick Novak, New England Patriots
(gpp) Trevor Siemian, LeGarrette Blount, Melvin Gordon, Kelvin Benjamin, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Brown, Hunter Henry, Josh Lambo, New England Patriots
(Cash )QB P. Rivers, Melvin Gordon, Le'Veon Bell, Kelvin Benjamin, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, Hunter Henry, Nick Novak, New England Patriots
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Glad I stayed away from this London game besides Gore in one cash LU. Yuck.
Eta: oops, forgot I tried Hurns in my thurs. gpp
Eta: oops, forgot I tried Hurns in my thurs. gpp
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reel_smooth
Footballguy
For better or worse, 3 cash line-ups. 1st is the 1:00 ONLY slate: QB - Cousins, RB - L. Miller & Blount, WR - Jeffery/ D. Jackson/ M. Jones Jr, TE - Z. Miller, K - Hopkins, DEF - NE
2nd, 1:00 MAIN - QB - Stafford, RB - Bell & M. Gordon, WR - M. Jones Jr/ Crowder/ Beasley, TE - Olsen, K - Hopkins, DEF - WASH.
3rd, 1:00 MAIN [**Note ** - this line-up was generated by the RotoGrinders line-up optimizer APP ..... wanted to give it a try for the heck of it. I don't know that I agree with all of it, but it's $2] QB - Newton, RB - Bell & M. Gordon, WR - T. Pryor Sr./T. Benjamin & Tyrell Williams [yes, I know - both SD], TE - Z. Miller, K - Lambo, DEF - ARI
2nd, 1:00 MAIN - QB - Stafford, RB - Bell & M. Gordon, WR - M. Jones Jr/ Crowder/ Beasley, TE - Olsen, K - Hopkins, DEF - WASH.
3rd, 1:00 MAIN [**Note ** - this line-up was generated by the RotoGrinders line-up optimizer APP ..... wanted to give it a try for the heck of it. I don't know that I agree with all of it, but it's $2] QB - Newton, RB - Bell & M. Gordon, WR - T. Pryor Sr./T. Benjamin & Tyrell Williams [yes, I know - both SD], TE - Z. Miller, K - Lambo, DEF - ARI
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I agree with this. At best it's only marginally better than random. Make the best call you can on the core, then add guys you want to watch who don't suck.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I'm stacking Flacco w/ Wallace and Pitta in a couple GPPs. I don't think they'll be too highly owned and the Flacco 400 is always a chance (as is the Flacco 200).
