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Team Smokin'

LaGarrette Blount, RB NE

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I am sure there are tons of articles out there on this guy. I did a search, but nothing exactly relevant.

I'm not sure I have ever seen LaGarrette this high in weekly fantasy stats and rankings? With Dion and Tom and Gronk in the lineup Blount seems to have decent games here and there running out the clock, or whenever Belicheck game plans it. Well, he is having some very respectable games...so far. He's in my flex over the likes of C Michael and M Jones, Jr. I cannot see this trend continuing at this pace, can you?

Speaking of trends how about Marvin Jones, Jr? Incredible run. Perhaps a bonafide WR #1? Yes. I too had him over Tate, but not this high, did anybody see this coming? Most had Jones a low end WR #2 / upside WR #3 and they still call him a WR #2 now.  And finally, will Christine Micheal keep up his pace?  Rawls shelved for a month, then eased back in? Could be too late if Michael's steals the baton?

These are the kinds of choices that Sharks make that win them championships.

BTW...my other two starting WR's are: Robinson & Hilton. My other two starting RB's: Ingram & Hill.

 

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13 minutes ago, Ace zero1 said:

Indeed there is. The landscape is ever-changing in fantasy football. Just like this thread. I'm still not sure what to think about Blount going forward. This week I'm okay, but long term for the season? I mean 1,000 yards and 10 TD's is certainly in his reach. That's a top 12 RB?

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17 minutes ago, Sir Psycho said:

Debating between Blount and Gurley (yes I know) this week, both tough matchup.

That's crazy to think starting Blount over Gurley, but that's how crazy it's gotten. Can't be can it?

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3 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

I give this a 7/10 for a veiled "manage my team" thread.

Meh. This forum has gotten so quiet that just about any information is fine.

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4 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

I give this a 7/10 for a veiled "manage my team" thread.

I give it 7/10 what do you really think of these players who have risen going forward thread ;)

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35 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Indeed there is. The landscape is ever-changing in fantasy football. Just like this thread. I'm still not sure what to think about Blount going forward. This week I'm okay, but long term for the season? I mean 1,000 yards and 10 TD's is certainly in his reach. That's a top 12 RB?

I think it's easy to dismiss Blount based on the past in which Brady has continuously aired the ball out.

I've seen several articles noting that they want to be more balanced on offense this year, and a good defense is likely going to help in that regard. 

Of course, that's probably what Hoodie wants people to believe before having Brady step on the throats of the league, but still, I think that Blount may have some decent value this year. Can't expect 20-25 carries each game, but with no Lewis in the fold for the forseeable future, I don't think he'll disappear as in years past.

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1 minute ago, zamboni said:

I think it's easy to dismiss Blount based on the past in which Brady has continuously aired the ball out.

I've seen several articles noting that they want to be more balanced on offense this year, and a good defense is likely going to help in that regard. 

Of course, that's probably what Hoodie wants people to believe before having Brady step on the throats of the league, but still, I think that Blount may have some decent value this year. Can't expect 20-25 carries each game, but with no Lewis in the fold for the forseeable future, I don't think he'll disappear as in years past.

It's information that we all have to decide which direction we want to go. We're buying on the future, not necessarily this week.

Thank you Zamboni for chiming in. Interesting decisions we all must make going forward. I think Blount will continue to have decent games. I don't foresee 100 yards + rushing, but I do see .5 or .6 TD with 50-60 yards each week with upside and a level floor.

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10 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Meh. This forum has gotten so quiet that just about any information is fine.

I'm surprised that there is no "breaking news" pinned thread here. All the people on this forum, all who could be scrolling through Twitter all day. That would get a discussion going as news breaks.

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30 minutes ago, Long Ball Larry said:

I give this a 7/10 for a veiled "manage my team" thread.

The AC vibe is strong with this one.

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25 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

I give it 7/10 what do you really think of these players who have risen going forward thread ;)

As someone already mentioned, each of those players already has a very active thread dedicated to them.

You would've scored higher on the veiled "let's talk about my team" thread if you hadn't talked about your flex or dropped the last line about the rest of your team.

Try to keep in mind the SP matra: nobody cares about your team

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I do think that what to do with Blount is an interesting question.  I've owned him at times in the past and it is really hard to trust him.  Did not start him last week.  Now I feel like I want to this week, but fear it will be chasing points.  He obviously looks pretty good, but the question is what is the probability of him getting ~20 touches in any given week.   This week seems like a good bet.  Once Brady is back, though, in any given week I'm not sure that that probability will be that much higher than in past years.

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I think it's justified considering the Patriots QB situation and likely game script Blount should get the touches.  This Pats D is very under the radar and will only help the run game.

 

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3 hours ago, zamboni said:

I think it's easy to dismiss Blount based on the past in which Brady has continuously aired the ball out.

I've seen several articles noting that they want to be more balanced on offense this year, and a good defense is likely going to help in that regard. 

Of course, that's probably what Hoodie wants people to believe before having Brady step on the throats of the league, but still, I think that Blount may have some decent value this year. Can't expect 20-25 carries each game, but with no Lewis in the fold for the forseeable future, I don't think he'll disappear as in years past.

That pretty much nails it. I'm going to hold and enjoy one more week, while hoping for the best for the rest of the season.

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Now if they would just throw Blount the ball out of the backfield - he's no slouch catching the ball and does have some elusiveness for a guy his size.

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On 9/28/2016 at 9:51 AM, FF Ninja said:

As someone already mentioned, each of those players already has a very active thread dedicated to them.

You would've scored higher on the veiled "let's talk about my team" thread if you hadn't talked about your flex or dropped the last line about the rest of your team.

Try to keep in mind the SP matra: nobody cares about your team

Ninja, in kindness and respect I do not want or am asking for anyone to manage my team, dude! I've been playing FF well before the internet. I do my homework and I put out things for others to chime in on. If you don't like the post then don't post here. People getting all bunchy about AC forum - lol!

Now, back to Bount. I thnk NE will be more balanced this year? How about you Ninja?

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22 hours ago, Long Ball Larry said:

I do think that what to do with Blount is an interesting question.  I've owned him at times in the past and it is really hard to trust him.  Did not start him last week.  Now I feel like I want to this week, but fear it will be chasing points.  He obviously looks pretty good, but the question is what is the probability of him getting ~20 touches in any given week.   This week seems like a good bet.  Once Brady is back, though, in any given week I'm not sure that that probability will be that much higher than in past years.

Yes, Larry exactly! Tough to trust Blount in previous years. So far so good. I was fortunate to start Bount the last two weeks. Can he possible keep trending like this? I still have questions and no, I cannot say, start him with confidence. I could play CMike over him. Not asking for start / sit advice. Just Blount performance. Thank you Larry!

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Just now, Team Smokin' said:

Ninja, in kindness and respect I do not want or am asking for anyone to manage my team, dude! I've been playing FF well before the internet. I do my homework and I put out things for others to chime in on. If you don't like the post then don't post here. People getting all bunchy about AC forum - lol!

Now, back to Bount. I thnk NE will be more balanced this year? How about you Ninja?

If you want to talk about Blount, go to the Blount thread. Don't start a thread title "Blount" and then tell us who is on your team. Also, it's not so simple as "if you don't like my AC post in the SP then don't post in it." If AC posts in the SP were not a problem, then why even have a special forum for the AC? Because it junks up the SP. Even if this wasn't a veiled AC post, it is still a redundant post since Blount already has his own thread. Not trying to be a Richard here. Just calling a spade a spade.

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

If you want to talk about Blount, go to the Blount thread. Don't start a thread title "Blount" and then tell us who is on your team. Also, it's not so simple as "if you don't like my AC post in the SP then don't post in it." If AC posts in the SP were not a problem, then why even have a special forum for the AC? Because it junks up the SP. Even if this wasn't a veiled AC post, it is still a redundant post since Blount already has his own thread. Not trying to be a Richard here. Just calling a spade a spade.

### for ### is the crap I detest and here I am falling into the trap.

Please, back to Blount. These decisions can win or lose championships. I know how close it comes down to over the years. A TD here, a sack there, a missed FG. It's razor thin.

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Just now, Team Smokin' said:

### for ### is the crap I detest and here I am falling into the trap.

Please, back to Blount. These decisions can win or lose championships. I know how close it comes down to over the years. A TD here, a sack there, a missed FG. It's razor thin.

Listing my team only allows others to see the challenge we all face every week. I appreciate any bits of wisdom from others, including footballbuys.

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3 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

### for ### is the crap I detest and here I am falling into the trap.

Please, back to Blount. These decisions can win or lose championships. I know how close it comes down to over the years. A TD here, a sack there, a missed FG. It's razor thin.

???

If anything, I'm falling into the trap of bumping a post that is either (A) redundant or (B) an AC post.

For the last time, if you want to talk about Blount, go to the Player Index sticky (https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/731377-index-to-team-and-player-threads/) and click on his name. It's not tricky. ;)

2 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Listing my team only allows others to see the challenge we all face every week. I appreciate any bits of wisdom from others, including footballbuys.

:rolleyes: c'mon man

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Pats (I believe) are the top rushing team in the NFL right now. Can't see that trend continuing once Brady comes back. I think Blount owners should enjoy the early season returns and if you can sell high do it. Problem is I don't think LB has much perceived value despite being a solid RB2 with upside of any week turning into 100/2 in the fourth quarter.

Of course, the obverse of that is you don't know when McD will completely write him out of a game plan and he's only on the field a handful of snaps.

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2 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

Pats (I believe) are the top rushing team in the NFL right now. Can't see that trend continuing once Brady comes back. I think Blount owners should enjoy the early season returns and if you can sell high do it. Problem is I don't think LB has much perceived value despite being a solid RB2 with upside of any week turning into 100/2 in the fourth quarter.

Of course, the obverse of that is you don't know when McD will completely write him out of a game plan and he's only on the field a handful of snaps.

Thank you tombonneau! This could be the case...

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6 minutes ago, Team Smokin' said:

Thank you tombonneau! This could be the case...

As a Pats fan I can tell you with 100% certainty that will be the case. Especially when/if Lewis comes back. I fully expect him to have the same high standard deviation like he has in the past.

Below (sorry for bad copy/paste formatting Yds columns = Attempts) you can see before he was hurt he had a handful of single digit games. Especially early season with Lewis. This will absolutely continue in 2016. But as long as Blount is your flex and/or rotational RB2, you can always try to anticipate when the non-Blount games will be. The trend is usually if a team has a really stout run defense, BB just throws out the ground game and they go pass crazy so it's really not that hard to predict once team's settle into their defensive identities. 

Rk	Date	G#	Age	Tm		Opp	Result	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	TD	Pts
1	2015-09-20	2	28-289	NWE	@	BUF	W 40-32	2	4	2.00	0	0	0	0		0	0.0%		0	0
2	2015-09-27	3	28-296	NWE		JAX	W 51-17	18	78	4.33	3	1	1	14	14.00	0	100.0%	14.00	3	18
3	2015-10-11	4	28-310	NWE	@	DAL	W 30-6	13	74	5.69	0	0	0	0		0	0.0%		0	0
4	2015-10-18	5	28-317	NWE	@	IND	W 34-27	16	93	5.81	1	1	1	11	11.00	1	100.0%	11.00	2	12
5	2015-10-25	6	28-324	NWE		NYJ	W 30-23	3	-3	-1.00	0	0	0	0		0	0.0%		0	0
6	2015-10-29	7	28-328	NWE		MIA	W 36-7	17	72	4.24	0	1	1	2	2.00	0	100.0%	2.00	0	0
7	2015-11-08	8	28-338	NWE		WAS	W 27-10	29	129	4.45	1	0	0	0		0	0.0%		1	6
8	2015-11-15	9	28-345	NWE	@	NYG	W 27-26	19	66	3.47	1	2	2	11	5.50	0	100.0%	5.50	1	6
9	2015-11-23	10	28-353	NWE		BUF	W 20-13	16	56	3.50	0	2	1	5	5.00	0	50.0%	2.50	0	0
10	2015-11-29	11	28-359	NWE	@	DEN	L 24-30	9	27	3.00	0	0	0	0		0	0.0%		0	0
11	2015-12-06	12	29-001	NWE		PHI	L 28-35	13	54	4.15	0	0	0	0		0	0.0%		0	0
12	2015-12-13	13	29-008	NWE	@	HOU	W 27-6	10	53	5.30	0	0	0	0		0	0.0%		0	0
12 Games						10-2-0	165	703	4.26	6	7	6	43	7.17	1	85.7%	6.14		42

 

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IGNORING THIS YEAR, Blount has played 38 games with Brady (regular season and playoffs).

Most fantasy weeks, in 0 PPR scoring, 7 points would generally rank in the Top 30-36 RBs in a given week, 10 points would normally rank in the Top 20-25, and 15 points would usually rank in the Top 10-12 RBs.

Blount has scored 15 or more points 6 times (16% of the time).
He scored 10 or more points 12 times (26% of the time).
He scored 7 or more points 17 times (45% of the time).
He scored 6 or fewer points 21 times (55% of the time).
He DNP in 5 games.

So far this year, Blount has ranked 16, 4, and 7 each week. IMO, he is very unlikely to be that consistent moving forward and is even less likely to average 25 carries a game. He should go back to having an occasional huge week sandwiched around several mediocre ones.

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Sold

Blount & Emmanuel Sanders for OBJ.

1 Pt PPR

I could spare Blount and he has let me down int he past.  Think OBJ is going to come around.

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10 minutes ago, Corn Rocket said:

Sold

Blount & Emmanuel Sanders for OBJ.

1 Pt PPR

I could spare Blount and he has let me down int he past.  Think OBJ is going to come around.

Good trade. I have OBJ and am holding. He has looked business as usual outside of the TD donut. 

ETA: That is exactly the type of trade Blount owners should be looking to make to capitalize on Blount's current ranking: combine him with a RB2 or WR2 to upgrade to a blue chip starter.

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4 hours ago, Corn Rocket said:

Sold

Blount & Emmanuel Sanders for OBJ.

1 Pt PPR

I could spare Blount and he has let me down int he past.  Think OBJ is going to come around.

That's a robbery for you.

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Thanks for starting this thread .I also have Blount and am interested in other peoples thoughts.I have several options at flex position and considering him strongly over other options.The last post in the players thread was last Friday.It just seems to me that sometimes we take the forum etiquette to seriously.At times it can be much more user friendly when the thread is right there for everyone to see.

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8 hours ago, tombonneau said:

Pats (I believe) are the top rushing team in the NFL right now. Can't see that trend continuing once Brady comes back. I think Blount owners should enjoy the early season returns and if you can sell high do it. Problem is I don't think LB has much perceived value despite being a solid RB2 with upside of any week turning into 100/2 in the fourth quarter.

Of course, the obverse of that is you don't know when McD will completely write him out of a game plan and he's only on the field a handful of snaps.

To illustrate your point re trade value, I tried to deal Blount during rookie draft time and got turned down cold unless I was willing to pretty much give him away.  12 team PPR league.

Later, when Brady's suspension was upheld and Lewis was determined out for an extended time, prevalent belief (which has turned out true) was Blount would be a workhorse early in the season.  I again tried to deal Blount.  Zero interest.

Finally, before last Thursday's game, knowing there would be no passing game and no real competition from James White for carries based on the first two games, I made my last try at moving him for something of value.  Nope, no interest.  One comment was 'I want nothing to do with the Patriots RBs.'  Seems Blount is one of those guys that's simply use him until you lose him and that's that.  His production value is all you have because his trade value isn't worth dealing him for.

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The more I listen to the so called "experts" and talking heads the more I see an eventual falling back to earth for Blount. They mostly all say, sell high. I'm still high on him this week. Funny how Blount is only getting respect during Brady's suspension, Gronk's slow return, and Lewis' soon to return. Doesn't sound real promising for the second half of the season? But, ya never know, that's why they play the game!

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It's also possible that the Patriots go all retro 2004 and ride him to a Super Bowl title.

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I traded Blount and Britt this past Tuesday for Mike Evans in a standard league.  His value is as high as it'll be all season RT now.  Take advantage.  

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2 hours ago, Chaka said:

It's also possible that the Patriots go all retro 2004 and ride him to a Super Bowl title.

Doubt it.  Angry tom returns next week and then Lewis shortly after and then with all the receiving weapons, Blount will not be able to be reliably trusted.  I'd say his value could not possibly ever be higher 

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I'm still waiting to see anything that supports the Lewis is coming back soon narrative. He hasn't practiced in almost a year, can't possibly be in game shape, and has had no contact at all yet. Lewis can't even practice until after Week 6. He has fallen off the edge of earth. There is no news on him. So we don't even know how he is recovering. 

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3 hours ago, rickyg said:

I traded Blount and Britt this past Tuesday for Mike Evans in a standard league.  His value is as high as it'll be all season RT now.  Take advantage.  

good lord

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5 hours ago, Chaka said:

It's also possible that the Patriots go all retro 2004 and ride him to a Super Bowl title.

Can I quote the Fonz?

Exactamundo!!!!

NE is the  mirror image of the 2004 Pats...but its the DEFENSE that is making Blount a season-long play..

Pats are blowing out opponents without Tom, relying on Blount and the defense.what are they going to do when Tom had them up 24-0 at the end of Q1 ? Defense and L. Blount.

Shades of Corey Dillon days

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Saw today that Lewis has not been in the locker room and has not been seen by the media for weeks. 

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52 minutes ago, Tanner9919 said:

Can I quote the Fonz?

Exactamundo!!!!

NE is the  mirror image of the 2004 Pats...but its the DEFENSE that is making Blount a season-long play..

Pats are blowing out opponents without Tom, relying on Blount and the defense.what are they going to do when Tom had them up 24-0 at the end of Q1 ? Defense and L. Blount.

Shades of Corey Dillon days

Disagree. Tom and the Pats are likely to come out and try to prove a point by blowing teams out of the water, like they did after the last big scandal.

BUT, one thing that is promising for Blount owners... What if Tom can't do that? What if age is catching up with him, as we saw glimpses of last year? What if he's rusty for a few weeks due to not getting the practice/game time over these past 4 weeks? That could be good for Blount for at least a few more games.

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The chances of Blount having more rushing attempts than the team has passing attempts once Brady comes back like he did the last two games is -1000%.

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11 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The chances of Blount having more rushing attempts than the team has passing attempts once Brady comes back like he did the last two games is -1000%.

Is there any RB who has more rushing attempts than the team has passing attempts?

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31 minutes ago, Grigs Allmoon said:

Is there any RB who has more rushing attempts than the team has passing attempts?

The Pats had 19 passing attempts against the Texans. Blount had 24 rushing attempts. 

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11 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

Can I quote the Fonz?

Exactamundo!!!!

NE is the  mirror image of the 2004 Pats...but its the DEFENSE that is making Blount a season-long play..

Pats are blowing out opponents without Tom, relying on Blount and the defense.what are they going to do when Tom had them up 24-0 at the end of Q1 ? Defense and L. Blount.

Shades of Corey Dillon days

You can always quote the Fonz in my book (or Barry Zuckerkorn "Those are balls.  This close, they always look like landscape. But nope, you're looking at balls.").

But I agree with those who think the Pats and Brady will be on a mission.  Still I think Blount has shown more than enough to convince the Pats to keep him as the unquestioned lead back and continue to garner the majority of RB touches going forward, whether that is 60% or 40% I think he will lead the RBs in touches even after Brady comes back.

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27 minutes ago, Chaka said:

You can always quote the Fonz in my book (or Barry Zuckerkorn "Those are balls.  This close, they always look like landscape. But nope, you're looking at balls.").

But I agree with those who think the Pats and Brady will be on a mission.  Still I think Blount has shown more than enough to convince the Pats to keep him as the unquestioned lead back and continue to garner the majority of RB touches going forward, whether that is 60% or 40% I think he will lead the RBs in touches even after Brady comes back.

I think he will remain the unquestioned leader in Rb touches once Brady comes back and will retain value as a mid range rb2.  Which is great considering where most people drafted him.  He's a huge value this year. 

I just don't think he sustains the 25 carry per game pace.  Historically he doesn't do that when Brady is playing.  12-15 carries per game sounds about right to me.  With gl chances almost every week.  

Definitely solid, but not the high end rb1 that he has been for the first month of the season.  I would never have sold him unless I was getting a king's ransom for him which I did in Mike Evans.  

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