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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

4,554 posts in this topic

42 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

If you're sick of the constant worrying, a 3rd is really about all he's worth.  I'd rather hold until he takes the field, knowing full well that he may never take the field.

Unfortunately this is where we’re at. Our best hope is that he’ll have a breakout game and we’ll be able to sell before the next week’s game for which he’s likely to get injured!

Tex

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Thoughts on AJ Green? Is it time to sell if you can get Keenan Allen. He’ll be 30 in a month. 

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15 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Thoughts on AJ Green? Is it time to sell if you can get Keenan Allen. He’ll be 30 in a month. 

I rate Allen much higher than Green at this point. If you can upgrade to Allen for Green+ I would happily do so. 

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

Thoughts on AJ Green? Is it time to sell if you can get Keenan Allen. He’ll be 30 in a month. 

I'd guess most people will value Allen higher than Green.

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

Thoughts on AJ Green? Is it time to sell if you can get Keenan Allen. He’ll be 30 in a month. 

In a heartbeat.  I'm not sure I wouldn't take Allen straight up in redraft, but giving me the extra 3 years is a no-brainer.

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On 6/14/2018 at 5:05 PM, FF Ninja said:

All been there.

Get annoyed at of work -> go to SP for distraction -> get annoyed by dumb things in SP -> browse /r/fitgirls for better distraction

Wait, maybe that last part is just me.

What’s that last bit?

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What are people thinking about similarly aged Julio? I would take decent value right now and be glad for it.

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16 minutes ago, Spike said:

What’s that last bit?

Reddit

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4 hours ago, Catbird said:

What are people thinking about similarly aged Julio? I would take decent value right now and be glad for it.

There was a lot of discussion on him pre-draft compare/contrasting him to the 1.2 rookie pick. This was before Guice took a tumble in the real draft though. He seems to be valued significantly above AJG despite being only 6 months younger. Julio's team situation is much more stable though, whereas Dalton and his o'line struggled mightily last year. I do think he's a great sell high if you can get good value, even the slightest hiccup in his production and people are going to start noticing he turns 30 at the end of the season. Alternatively, if you can get him for a reasonable price, he can still be a difference maker for a team in the title hunt that can ride him until the wheels fall off and not worry about exit value. Only 3 TDs last year (2 in one game) is concerning though.

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Would anyone trade Goff & K. Benjamin for Keenan Allen in PPR? I'd be left with Stafford as my only QB (Start 1). He has Brees & Tyrod. Hoping to get him to at least work a deal that sends Tyrod my way too.

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1 minute ago, Magic_Man said:

Would anyone trade Goff & K. Benjamin for Keenan Allen in PPR? I'd be left with Stafford as my only QB (Start 1). He has Brees & Tyrod. Hoping to get him to at least work a deal that sends Tyrod my way too.

Allen is an elite talent, and Goff/Benjamin are pretty much replacement level.  Don't risk him coming to his senses, take the deal and work on securing a backup QB later.

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1 minute ago, Magic_Man said:

Would anyone NOT trade Goff & K. Benjamin for Keenan Allen in PPR?

Fixed

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Starting to think people are undervaluing AJ Green.  I totally agree Allen > Green, but how low are people taking him in startup's right now?  If he's going 3rd round or so, that seems like a no brainer to me.  Has anyone seen cheap deals FOR Green or am I just behind in my ADP checks?  

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56 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Allen is an elite talent, and Goff/Benjamin are pretty much replacement level.  Don't risk him coming to his senses, take the deal and work on securing a backup QB later.

LOL I took it

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1 hour ago, Magic_Man said:

Would anyone trade Goff & K. Benjamin for Keenan Allen in PPR? I'd be left with Stafford as my only QB (Start 1). He has Brees & Tyrod. Hoping to get him to at least work a deal that sends Tyrod my way too.

I think just about anyone would do that. Allen is a top 10 WR and while I like Goff a lot QBs are easy to come by.

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23 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Thoughts on AJ Green? Is it time to sell if you can get Keenan Allen. He’ll be 30 in a month. 

I would expect you would have to give more than just Green to get Allen. If you can get him in a straight up trade, that's a nobrainer.

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15 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Starting to think people are undervaluing AJ Green.  I totally agree Allen > Green, but how low are people taking him in startup's right now?  If he's going 3rd round or so, that seems like a no brainer to me.  Has anyone seen cheap deals FOR Green or am I just behind in my ADP checks?  

In a startup I did in February, Julio went 19 overall and Green went 27.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

In a startup I did in February, Julio went 19 overall and Green went 27.

I can see that as around normal for Julio, but Green seems way low.  Everything was out of sorts for the Bengals last year and Green was still a WR1 at the end of the year (finished WR11 in .5ppr).  They are different kinds of players.  Green is this years Gurley in my mind and it's not like he's that old either.  Soon to be 30 but his game translates similar to Moss's I think in that he could easily play to 34 or beyond.

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55 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I can see that as around normal for Julio, but Green seems way low.  Everything was out of sorts for the Bengals last year and Green was still a WR1 at the end of the year (finished WR11 in .5ppr).  They are different kinds of players.  Green is this years Gurley in my mind and it's not like he's that old either.  Soon to be 30 but his game translates similar to Moss's I think in that he could easily play to 34 or beyond.

Sure, Green's game could make it another 4 years, but what about Dalton, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals offensive line?  Older players get punished in dynasty startups, but I think the reticence to draft Green is due to things that affect the team/situation.

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Moss's last good season came at age 32. If Green ages as well as Moss then his last good season will be in 2020.

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25 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Moss's last good season came at age 32. If Green ages as well as Moss then his last good season will be in 2020.

I could be way off, but I think I remember feeling like Moss was done mentally before he was physically, that he could have continued playing at a high level if he cared to, but he mailed it in. I could certainly be misremembering or could have been wrong about that at the time.

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42 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Moss's last good season came at age 32. If Green ages as well as Moss then his last good season will be in 2020.

Different era and all players generally play a little longer, so add a year or 2.  Green has had no substantial injuries to date either, unless you count the torn hamstring, which I don't call that major.  

13 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I could be way off, but I think I remember feeling like Moss was done mentally before he was physically, that he could have continued playing at a high level if he cared to, but he mailed it in. I could certainly be misremembering or could have been wrong about that at the time.

I had that same impression I believe when he left the Pats.  It was either that or coaches didn't use him in the same way, and production dropped off a cliff.  

Whatever the case, I feel like AJ has 2-3 more WR1 type years in front of him, and possibly more.  

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Price check on Doctson. I have an owner trying to get him from me, but don't know what sort of ask is fair. PPR.

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2 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

Price check on Doctson. I have an owner trying to get him from me, but don't know what sort of ask is fair. PPR.

Try this thought exercise: If Doctson had been in your free agent pool for your rookie draft, where would you have taken him? That spot tells you how much you value him. Personally, I'd have considered him somewhere in mid-second, after Miller but before Pettis.

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11 minutes ago, tombonneau said:

Try this thought exercise: If Doctson had been in your free agent pool for your rookie draft, where would you have taken him? That spot tells you how much you value him. Personally, I'd have considered him somewhere in mid-second, after Miller but before Pettis.

About where I value him. I turned down Doyle for him a minute ago.

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How does the community feel about Doctson vs Crowder?

Also, has Hunt secured the job or will Ware still get some significant work?

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3 minutes ago, Magic_Man said:

How does the community feel about Doctson vs Crowder?

Also, has Hunt secured the job or will Ware still get some significant work?

Really?

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56 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Really?

I worded it badly, but we know what I mean. :sleep:

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On 6/21/2018 at 3:00 PM, tangfoot said:

Sure, Green's game could make it another 4 years, but what about Dalton, Marvin Lewis and the Bengals offensive line?  Older players get punished in dynasty startups, but I think the reticence to draft Green is due to things that affect the team/situation.

Maybe a homer take, but the OL should be mostly fixed. Cordy Glenn is a proven talent at LT and first-round centers (Billy Price) have hit at a really high rate in recent years, so have to feel pretty good there. Considering all the offensive issues last season, Dalton actually played ok. 

I think Green has a big season and that he'll age relatively well. I think he's a nice trade target after his birthday this summer when he turns 30. I still wouldn't take him in the 2nd round of a startup though. Taking 30-year-olds that high leaves you bleeding value. 

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13 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

I worded it badly, but we know what I mean. :sleep:

I don't think it was your wording that was surprising - I think the answer is pretty obvious no matter how you present the question.

Hunt is the bell-cow back in KC. Ware may potentially see more work than Charcandrick West did (or he may not make the team) in the back-up role but in any case his workload will not be significant. 

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On 6/22/2018 at 11:26 AM, Magic_Man said:

Price check on Doctson. I have an owner trying to get him from me, but don't know what sort of ask is fair. PPR.

I have someone sniffing around for him and my thought was a mid 2nd. 

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I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.

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On 6/28/2018 at 9:44 PM, Andrew74 said:

I have someone sniffing around for him and my thought was a mid 2nd. 

He tried Doyle & Crowder for my Doctson & Ware. I declined.

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15 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.

Very light

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16 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.

Reading posts about JuJu’s value, I realize that I might be overvaluing him a little.  However, I would not trade him straight up for anyone in this draft other than Barkley. Coming out of his rookie year, he’s as close to can’t miss stud as we’ve seen in some time at WR and that’s where I’d currently value him. A young WR1. 

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JuJu was traded in 1 of my leagues twice a couple months ago.

JuJu + 2019 1st + 2019 3rd for Landry

Then JuJu traded for a 2019 1st

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2 hours ago, Dez said:

JuJu was traded in 1 of my leagues twice a couple months ago.

JuJu + 2019 1st + 2019 3rd for Landry

Then JuJu traded for a 2019 1st

Those are both terrible.

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22 hours ago, Magic_Man said:

He tried Doyle & Crowder for my Doctson & Ware. I declined.

He offered to swap 2019 3rds.  I said I’d take a 2019 2nd (playoff team) and a 2019 3rd (top half) and he thought that was ridiculous.  Guess he’s staying on my roster.  

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2 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

He offered to swap 2019 3rds.  I said I’d take a 2019 2nd (playoff team) and a 2019 3rd (top half) and he thought that was ridiculous.  Guess he’s staying on my roster.  

Same here.

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Rank these guys please:  I expect very different results but they seem to be going in rounds 2-4 range in startups.

Amari Cooper, Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyreek Hill

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