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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

5,058 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Great post.  I agree with everything except the notion of trading for a player just after they were drafted rather than trading for the pick.  I've never had any luck with that at all.  I think when it's still a pick, even if they're pretty sure who they're going to pick with it, there is still some amount of waffling/openness.  They're still, at least to some extent, entertaining the notion that they may get an offer for the pick they like, or decide to take someone different, etc.  Once they've made the pick there is some finality to it.  They've accepted that this is their guy and I think they're less likely to move them.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a guy (at least not a guy with good value like a 1st rounder) traded in any of my dynasty leagues between the time they were selected in the rookie draft and the start of their rookie season.  And I have certainly tried buying.

In my leagues once the pick is made, the prices tend to go up. They all think he's the next Rice, Barry Sanders, etc. 

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11 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank the following assets: D. Hopkins, T. Gurley, A. Robinson, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03

Obviously this would change post draft but right now knowing what I know I go:

1.1

Gurley

1.2

1.3

Hopkins

Robinson

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16 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Obviously this would change post draft but right now knowing what I know I go:

1.1

Gurley

1.2

1.3

Hopkins

Robinson

Thanks.  I agree with the 1.01 being the most valuable piece; It gets tricky after that.  Gun to my head: 1, Gurley, 2, Hopkins, 3, Robinson.    

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Thanks.  I agree with the 1.01 being the most valuable piece; It gets tricky after that.  Gun to my head: 1, Gurley, 2, Hopkins, 3, Robinson.    

Agree it gets tricky. With factoring in new HC with Gurley and now knowing where draft picks land I could see Gurley and or Hopkins being 2 and 3 post draft or 4 and 5. I think the one thing I feel safest about is Robinson as 5th most valuable piece.

Now I'll add for me I got Fournette as 1.1, Cook as 1.2 and small drop after and then it's Mike Williams and McCafferey so when I see 1.2 I see Cook and 1.3 I see Mike Williams. That's here and today, I do change my opinion based on where they go. Like if Fournette ended up in Carolina as a few mocks suggest I still would like him a great deal but not as much.

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23 hours ago, FUBAR said:

Older?  Damn I'm getting old when these guys are "older".   Ok, but brown is 28 and one of the smarter players.  I see him having another 5 good years.  I'm less enthralled with green and Julio long term.  I won't trade brown for less than 3 top 5 picks and I'm not sure I'd do it then  (I have one of the top teams in a 32 team league with him).  Maybe if I was building but I think he has a career similar to jerry rice, for longevity.  

All 3 warrant more than one top 6 pick. 

You were old before these players even entered the league. :D

I agree with not trading Brown for less than what you mention. I would be more willing to part with Green or Jones as well, although the price would still be similarly high. Maybe only two top 5 picks and a high second instead of 3 top 5 picks. Not that much cheaper. Still hard for any team to put together a package good enough to get me to consider moving one of the top WRs. It would be a pretty unique situation for such a move to happen.

I usually ride players like this into the sunset or I am looking to buy if owners will sell them cheaper due to them now becoming old.

 

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank the following assets: D. Hopkins, T. Gurley, A. Robinson, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03

Depends on where Cook and fournette wind up. I like Cook in Indy better than Gurley and the others. 

Right now I see the tier 1 rookies as fournette, cook, williams, and davis.

I prefer Gurley then Robinson and Hopkins for the guys currently playing in the NFL.

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6 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Great post.  I agree with everything except the notion of trading for a player just after they were drafted rather than trading for the pick.  I've never had any luck with that at all.  I think when it's still a pick, even if they're pretty sure who they're going to pick with it, there is still some amount of waffling/openness.  They're still, at least to some extent, entertaining the notion that they may get an offer for the pick they like, or decide to take someone different, etc.  Once they've made the pick there is some finality to it.  They've accepted that this is their guy and I think they're less likely to move them.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a guy (at least not a guy with good value like a 1st rounder) traded in any of my dynasty leagues between the time they were selected in the rookie draft and the start of their rookie season.  And I have certainly tried buying.

For myself personally, if I pick a player in the rookie draft, it becomes very unlikely that I trade that player away before I see the first 3 years of that players career. That is the commitment I am making when I draft a player.

For others however it might be a bit like buying a new car. You pay the sticker price because you don't have any better options. The asset loses value as soon as you drive it off the lot in a lot of cases and because of that could possibly be had for a cheaper price if their owner feels that way about it.

The owners who are always making changes I think are more likely to become impatient and sell for something new than the draft and hold type of owners. 

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10 hours ago, Gandalf said:

Allen Robinson - does he rebound next year? I feel like we should be trying to buy him everywhere for peanuts if possible.

I haven't paid enough attention to him or the Jaguars to really say one way or another.

I believe in Robinson's talent. He is still a very young player and learning. What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside.

Blake Bortles is very bad and I don't know if Jacksonville is ready to give up on him yet. So if Bortles is the QB again next season, well it could go either way I suppose or more likely somewhere in between his 2015 and 2016 performance. I don't believe in Bortles enough however to think it will be closer to 2015 than 2016 unless there is a change in QB.

If there is a change in QB there may be an adjustment period for Robinson that delays him further in his development.

I do like the player enough that I think it is a good opportunity to buy. I am just not sure he will get back to performing as a WR 1 again with Bortles and that makes next season seem unlikely. 

As Andrew74 mentions, if you can buy for WR 2 price I think he is worth it. He might not perform any better than a WR 2 next season however.

TD are really hard to predict and Robinson might have hit his career mark in TD as a rookie. Hard to expect any player to score that consistently unless they actually are Randy Moss.

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

Obviously this would change post draft but right now knowing what I know I go:

1.1

Gurley

1.2

1.3

Hopkins

Robinson

Whoa this is wayyy different than I would rank these assets. No chance I take a rookie over a 23-year old WR who just put up a top 5 season.

ARob

Hopkins

1.1

1.2

Gurley

1.3

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9 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

 

The owners who are always making changes I think are more likely to become impatient and sell for something new than the draft and hold type of owners. 

Most of those owners are bottom feeders.  

I haven't kept most of my picks because they tend to be overvalued.  Sometimes they pan out but even then the player taken often doesn't live up to the price paid.  Just as one example of when the best case still looks good for the trader of the pick, I traded the 1.01 last year (Gurley) for Mike Evans two days before the draft.  (Wasn't my pick) I got blasted for that trade.  

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Just now, maf005 said:
2 hours ago, menobrown said:

Obviously this would change post draft but right now knowing what I know I go:

1.1

Gurley

1.2

1.3

Hopkins

Robinson

Whoa this is wayyy different than I would rank these assets. No chance I take a rookie over a 23-year old WR who just put up a top 5 season.

ARob

Hopkins

1.1

1.2

Gurley

1.3

1.1

AR15 (is that no longer a thing? )

Gurley (but I'd really like to know who coaches him next year)

Hopkins (very close to 1.02, ask tomorrow and I might answer differently.  Presuming Brock remains starter, I might drop him more)

1.02 

1.03

I think Robinson comes back around, eventually.  Top 10 probably.  

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank the following assets: D. Hopkins, T. Gurley, A. Robinson, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03

Dalvin Cook

Robinson

Gurley

Hopkins

Chubb/Fournette/McCafrey

I need to watch the rookie RBs besides Chubb and Cook more than I have to really rank them, I am tempted to have Chubb ahead of Hopkins based on what I have seen, but my understanding is he had injuries and whatnot, so not even sure he would be ahead of Fournette for most people. What I have seen of Fournette, I always am wondering why people like Cosell and others think he is so great? But I may have just watched him at bad times also.

Not very easy to rank these honestly. Before this season I would think most would have Robinson and Hopkins ahead of the draft picks.

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20 minutes ago, maf005 said:

Whoa this is wayyy different than I would rank these assets. No chance I take a rookie over a 23-year old WR who just put up a top 5 season.

ARob

Hopkins

1.1

1.2

Gurley

1.3

 

I expected people's rankings to be all over the place and I expected people to not agree with me but to be honest thought most of the flak I would get would be listing Hopkins so low.

 

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29 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

Most of those owners are bottom feeders.  

I haven't kept most of my picks because they tend to be overvalued.  Sometimes they pan out but even then the player taken often doesn't live up to the price paid.  Just as one example of when the best case still looks good for the trader of the pick, I traded the 1.01 last year (Gurley) for Mike Evans two days before the draft.  (Wasn't my pick) I got blasted for that trade.  

Nothing wrong with that trade, Evans is a player I have always valued a bit more than Robinson though, same tier I guess but Evans likely closer to the 11 tier than tier one. The 2014 draft was fantastic and I waved between Evans and Watkins as the best of that great group. I had Robinson in tier 2 before I watched more of him. To be honest some of Ryan Riddles comments opened my eyes about him and after watching some more I decided to move him into the tier one group that was already very deep.

The love for Gurley was very high however. And for good reason I think. He did have some really excellent games in college and more impressive to me than anything I have seen from Fournette for example at this time.

I don't get the sense that people feel as strongly about any of the 2017 RB as people did about Gurley, but I guess it is still early for that right now.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I haven't paid enough attention to him or the Jaguars to really say one way or another.

I believe in Robinson's talent. He is still a very young player and learning. What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside.

Blake Bortles is very bad and I don't know if Jacksonville is ready to give up on him yet. So if Bortles is the QB again next season, well it could go either way I suppose or more likely somewhere in between his 2015 and 2016 performance. I don't believe in Bortles enough however to think it will be closer to 2015 than 2016 unless there is a change in QB.

If there is a change in QB there may be an adjustment period for Robinson that delays him further in his development.

I do like the player enough that I think it is a good opportunity to buy. I am just not sure he will get back to performing as a WR 1 again with Bortles and that makes next season seem unlikely. 

As Andrew74 mentions, if you can buy for WR 2 price I think he is worth it. He might not perform any better than a WR 2 next season however.

TD are really hard to predict and Robinson might have hit his career mark in TD as a rookie. Hard to expect any player to score that consistently unless they actually are Randy Moss.

Just a heads up that Robinson was not a rookie last year. 

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Just a heads up that Robinson was not a rookie last year. 

I know he was part of the 2014 draft class. Did I say something confusing that suggests otherwise? If so not intentionally. 

I was talking about his 14 TD season though which occurred in his second season, not as a rookie. Sorry for any confusion about that.

Edited by Biabreakable

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31 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I know he was part of the 2014 draft class. Did I say something confusing that suggests otherwise? If so not intentionally. 

I was talking about his 14 TD season though which occurred in his second season, not as a rookie. Sorry for any confusion about that.

No worries, but yea you said "What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside.", and also "Robinson might have hit his career mark in TD as a rookie".

He had 639 yards and 6 TDs in 13 games as a rookie, not in any way phenomenal, his career TD mark, or a Moss/OBJ like rookie year ;)

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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With regards to the discussion about Gurley/Robinson/Hopkins and their bounce back potential, is there any precedent set for players having healthy 16 game seasons and performing THAT poorly and then bouncing back to being a top 5/10 long-term fantasy asset again.

There are probably some, but I can't think of them offhand.  There are a few WRs that had some good bounce back seasons in their twilight years, but I can't think of any guys that played this poorly when they were young and then picked things right back up where they had left off the year before for the rest of their career.

It seems easy to dismiss things as bad line, bad QB, etc but Gurley is far from the first allegedly premiere RB to spend a year with an abysmal line, and Robinson/Hopkins are far from the first premiere WRs to play with an abysmal QB.

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

No worries, but yea you said "What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside."

He had 639 yards and 6 TDs in 13 games as a rookie, not in any way phenomenal or a Moss/OBJ like rookie year.

My bad talking about a bunch of different time frames and perspectives here.Easy to get some wires crossed.

But yes Robinson did not break out like that until his second season.

Robinson only played in 10 games as a rookie. Bortles was a rookie too that year 

Just looking at Robinson's targets, he is on pace for 146 targets this season, similar to 2015 the volume is there, Bortles is throwing the ball 40 times per game, but everything else is way down from what he was able to do last season except for sacks, which have been cut down a lot compared to his first couple seasons.

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15 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Great post.  I agree with everything except the notion of trading for a player just after they were drafted rather than trading for the pick.  I've never had any luck with that at all.  I think when it's still a pick, even if they're pretty sure who they're going to pick with it, there is still some amount of waffling/openness.  They're still, at least to some extent, entertaining the notion that they may get an offer for the pick they like, or decide to take someone different, etc.  Once they've made the pick there is some finality to it.  They've accepted that this is their guy and I think they're less likely to move them.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a guy (at least not a guy with good value like a 1st rounder) traded in any of my dynasty leagues between the time they were selected in the rookie draft and the start of their rookie season.  And I have certainly tried buying.

I completely agree with you here too.  It's definitely not something that happens with regularity, but with certain owners it is possible.  I think for there to be a real opportunity to pull off moves like this, you need to find owners that tend to overreact to off-season news blurbs.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Respect the call, but disagree.  I think Howard is going to stick.  I don't have a strong opinion on Dixon either way, but I'd happily bet against him being a household name.  

Well, my opinion is admittedly strongly influenced by Waldman on RBs and he said before the draft and recently reiterated that Dixon is still the one to own. My takeaway from reading all his stuff is that Howard is good, not great, whereas Dixon is more of a special talent. Also, as someone who has owned both and has watched many a one year wonder, I just don't feel that confident about Howard. I mainly drafted him bc I thought Langford sucked, but don't like the direction the Bears are going. It kind of reminds me of Doug Martin a bit in that his stats were better than he was (not that he was bad, just not that good), but also the team itself crumbled around him.

Here's an article talking about both of them. It's a good read if you have a minute: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck382

In the rookie scouting portfolio, he had Dixon #3 and Howard #15 (out of the RBs).

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6 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Well, my opinion is admittedly strongly influenced by Waldman on RBs and he said before the draft and recently reiterated that Dixon is still the one to own. My takeaway from reading all his stuff is that Howard is good, not great, whereas Dixon is more of a special talent. Also, as someone who has owned both and has watched many a one year wonder, I just don't feel that confident about Howard. I mainly drafted him bc I thought Langford sucked, but don't like the direction the Bears are going. It kind of reminds me of Doug Martin a bit in that his stats were better than he was (not that he was bad, just not that good), but also the team itself crumbled around him.

Here's an article talking about both of them. It's a good read if you have a minute: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck382

In the rookie scouting portfolio, he had Dixon #3 and Howard #15 (out of the RBs).

I respect the hell out of Waldman.  But at a certain point in the process, what a player is actually doing has to supersede what anyone thought they would do.  Waldman was making a projection on how Howard would do in the NFL.  He didn't have the luxury that we have today: We've seen him in the NFL. Howard has already outperformed the article's projected ceiling.  Based on that, I think he's an asset where Dixon is still a maybe.  There's still some Bryce Butler flame out potential, and I'm not sure he's completely safe from a timeshare, but I like his odds.

Edited by Concept Coop

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17 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

... is there any precedent set for players having healthy 16 game seasons and performing THAT poorly and then bouncing back to being a top 5/10 long-term fantasy asset again.

2012 Larry Fitzgerald.  He was too old to be a top 10 asset after bouncing back, but he did bounce back. 

Brandon Marshall in Miami also came to mind, but looking at the numbers--they weren't as bad I thought.  

Edit: 2009 Matt Forte? 2011 Chris Johnson? 2012 LeSean McCoy? 2015 Melvin Gordon?  Not perfect examples, but about as close as we're likely to get.  

Edited by Concept Coop

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Rant:  Can anyone tell me why LeVeon Bell isn't more situation dependant than Zeke Elliott?  The Cowboys have a better line, but also see more 8 man fronts than anyone.  Sure, Darren McFadden put up 1,000 yards last year, but 32-33YO DeAngelo Williams is a high end RB1 when he starts.  If I'm a Zeke owner (PPR), I think I'd take him in PIT over DAL; short-term, at least. 

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

 

19 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

... is there any precedent set for players having healthy 16 game seasons and performing THAT poorly and then bouncing back to being a top 5/10 long-term fantasy asset again.

2012 Larry Fitzgerald.  He was too old to be a top 10 asset after bouncing back, but he did bounce back.

Some other WRs with similar patterns: Randy Moss in Oakland (he was in his late 20s by then, but he had 3 huge NE years left). Steve Smith whenever Delhomme was out, including most of the 2007 season. Isaac Bruce at age 25 in 1997 (although he missed some games). Anquan Boldin's second season (although he also missed some games). Reggie Wayne was a late-career thing, but he put up basically the same totals in his last Manning season and his first Luck season with a huge dip in between.

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Just now, ZWK said:

Some other WRs with similar patterns: Randy Moss in Oakland (he was in his late 20s by then, but he had 3 huge NE years left). Steve Smith whenever Delhomme was out, including most of the 2007 season. Isaac Bruce at age 25 in 1997 (although he missed some games). Anquan Boldin's second season (although he also missed some games). Reggie Wayne was a late-career thing, but he put up basically the same totals in his last Manning season and his first Luck season with a huge dip in between.

Thank you for this.  Very good data points.  

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let's make this thread the new version of the Fear and Loathing thread from back in the day. Keep up the great work everyone.

keeping it rolling...

 

Has Davante Adams done enough this year to be in the conversation in high-end WR2 range (ie. WR12-20-ish)?

Is he now in the Hopkins/Cooks/Robinson range?

I think yes, especially with Cobbs disappointing for the 2nd year in a row, Nelson getting another year younger, and Rodgers still in his prime.

 

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27 minutes ago, joey said:

let's make this thread the new version of the Fear and Loathing thread from back in the day. Keep up the great work everyone.

keeping it rolling...

 

Has Davante Adams done enough this year to be in the conversation in high-end WR2 range (ie. WR12-20-ish)?

Is he now in the Hopkins/Cooks/Robinson range?

I think yes, especially with Cobbs disappointing for the 2nd year in a row, Nelson getting another year younger, and Rodgers still in his prime.

 

I haven't paid enough attention to GB this year to feel good about my call, but I think he's a mid WR2.  I can't put him in the Hopkins/Robinson or even Cooks range, but he's in the conversation after that.  I will say that a good deal of that price is situational.  I'm not sold on him as an NFL WR1, but again, I am not the most informed on the topic ATM.  

 

Do you like him more than Michael Thomas?

Edited by Concept Coop

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6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I haven't paid enough attention to GB this year to feel good about my call, but I think he's a mid WR2.  I can't put him in the Hopkins/Robinson or even Cooks range, but he's in the conversation after that.  I will say that a good deal of that price is situational.  I'm not sold on him as an NFL WR1, but again, I am not the most informed on the topic ATM.  

 

Do you like him more than Michael Thomas?

Right now, most would probably pick Thomas over Adams but if Adams continues to develop as he has this year, Cobb continues to remain JAG, and Nelson eventually retires, I'm hoping they're in the same tier below the uber-stud WRs. 

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I have watched quite a few Packers games this year. In my opinion Adams still shows some similar problems with getting open and with catching the ball as he had last season. The main difference to me is that Rodgers seems to understand Adams better and has better timing with him this season than he had last season. There are times where I think Rodgers has lost confidence in Adams and looks for other options. He isn't doing that as much this year, as trying to work with what hes got.

Adams is putting up similar numbers to James Jones in the offense. The role he was drafted for but wasn't ready to take over last season.

I would value him as a WR 2/3 based more on his situation and supporting cast than his talent. I have some doubts about Adams being as productive if he was with another team.

Adams has improved metrically in all categories. His cartch rate is above 60% now, his yards per receptions and yards per target are much higher and obviously 9 TD makes a huge difference. Jones always scored a decent number of TD in this role before Adams, and this is one thing that Adam's specializes in, the back shoulder catch and fighting for the ball in the end zone.

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Ok, I've got a question for this thread. Was just poking around and... take this with a grain of salt since only one staff member has posted rankings in the past 35 days... saw 12/15/16 rankings that had DT at WR12 and Crabtree at WR34. Supposedly this is for PPR. Crabtree is ~3 months older (negligible) and has outscored DT on a per target basis* for the past two years (with similar targets, 127 vs. 130, he's outscoring him so far this year).

*Yes, I'm using per target because PPR is basically a volume scoring system so stats are based more on target volume than skill. Just because a guy got a ton of targets in one year doesn't mean he'll get them going forward, so looking at points/target helps neutralize things to help us prepare for the unknown. 

So my question is, why is there such a gulf between them? Do people think DT is magically going to get 180 targets for the rest of his career? It seems his value is still inflated from the Peyton years and Crabtree's value is still deflated from the SF years.

They are both turning 30 next season. They are both signed with their respective clubs through 2019. Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs.

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53 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Ok, I've got a question for this thread. Was just poking around and... take this with a grain of salt since only one staff member has posted rankings in the past 35 days... saw 12/15/16 rankings that had DT at WR12 and Crabtree at WR34. Supposedly this is for PPR. Crabtree is ~3 months older (negligible) and has outscored DT on a per target basis* for the past two years (with similar targets, 127 vs. 130, he's outscoring him so far this year).

*Yes, I'm using per target because PPR is basically a volume scoring system so stats are based more on target volume than skill. Just because a guy got a ton of targets in one year doesn't mean he'll get them going forward, so looking at points/target helps neutralize things to help us prepare for the unknown. 

So my question is, why is there such a gulf between them? Do people think DT is magically going to get 180 targets for the rest of his career? It seems his value is still inflated from the Peyton years and Crabtree's value is still deflated from the SF years.

They are both turning 30 next season. They are both signed with their respective clubs through 2019. Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs.

And yet DT sits at WR 9 in PPR, with a legit chance to move to WR 6 or 7 over the last week or two. And that's with a bum hip for a few games. No one believes in this guy but he continues to put up very good numbers no matter who the QB is. If he gets a legit QB next year, I see no reason why he can't be top 5.

I'll take DT over Crabtree 10 times out of 10.

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

And yet DT sits at WR 9 in PPR, with a legit chance to move to WR 6 or 7 over the last week or two. And that's with a bum hip for a few games. No one believes in this guy but he continues to put up very good numbers no matter who the QB is. If he gets a legit QB next year, I see no reason why he can't be top 5.

I'll take DT over Crabtree 10 times out of 10.

And yet? Why do you lead off with "and yet"? That was weird. And from there you managed to get really defensive about DT and not answer the question. Anyway, in regular ol' 1ppr he sits at 10th, not 9th, behind Crabtree. So if this was one of those 10 times you picked him over the Crabman, you missed. But congrats on being part of the consensus opinion. It's a long and lonely branch. 

And I guess you missed it, but he's ranked WR12 on those dynasty rankings, so I don't understand the "no one believes in this guy" stance, when he's clearly valued quite highly by many.

I don't mean to turn this into a DT bashing thread, but I'll tell you why he won't be top 5 next year... he won't be top 5 unless he gets top 5 targets or if Peyton comes back to pepper the whole team with TDs. The problem is, nobody is going to throw 35+ TDs in Denver next year and DT isn't good enough to command 180 targets. This year, he's 10th in WR targets and 10th in WR points. He's a good WR. Crabtree is 11th in targets and 9th in points. He's also a good WR. They are the same age and signed to contracts for the same amount of time. So let me repeat the question slowly... why is there such a huge gap between their dynasty values?

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Ok, I've got a question for this thread. Was just poking around and... take this with a grain of salt since only one staff member has posted rankings in the past 35 days... saw 12/15/16 rankings that had DT at WR12 and Crabtree at WR34. Supposedly this is for PPR. Crabtree is ~3 months older (negligible) and has outscored DT on a per target basis* for the past two years (with similar targets, 127 vs. 130, he's outscoring him so far this year).

*Yes, I'm using per target because PPR is basically a volume scoring system so stats are based more on target volume than skill. Just because a guy got a ton of targets in one year doesn't mean he'll get them going forward, so looking at points/target helps neutralize things to help us prepare for the unknown. 

So my question is, why is there such a gulf between them? Do people think DT is magically going to get 180 targets for the rest of his career? It seems his value is still inflated from the Peyton years and Crabtree's value is still deflated from the SF years.

They are both turning 30 next season. They are both signed with their respective clubs through 2019. Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs.

Good topic and I think the correct answer is (mostly) name value.  I'd throw Dez Bryant into that conversation as well.  I have no issue with anyone preferring DT or Dez to Crabtree, but the gulf, as you put it, is greatly exaggerated.  In that context, Crabtree is a clear buy.

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He answered your question, although in a roundabout sort of way.  Crabtree healthy + with a good QB = WR9.  DT not healthy with crappy QB = WR10.  Health and crappy QB can improve.  One could also argue that Cooper > Sanders, so DT has less competition going forward.

 

 

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On 12/15/2016 at 2:12 PM, Concept Coop said:

Rank the following assets: D. Hopkins, T. Gurley, A. Robinson, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03

At this point, I think I'd take the draft picks, then rank it Hopkins, Robinson, Gurley.  QB situations and coaching flux are all factors that devalue those guys.

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2 minutes ago, ThreeThousand said:

He answered your question, although in a roundabout sort of way.  Crabtree healthy + with a good QB = WR9.  DT not healthy with crappy QB = WR10.  Health and crappy QB can improve.  One could also argue that Cooper > Sanders, so DT has less competition going forward.

Crabtree has been dealing with an ankle injury for like 5 weeks, so I'm not buying that DT's health has greatly set him back this year. Currently, DT has 9.3 targets/game and a 64% catch rate which is pretty good. While the QB situation could get better next year, it could also get worse. Crabtree at least has continuity going for him at QB. You'd think that would count for something.

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6 minutes ago, ThreeThousand said:

He answered your question, although in a roundabout sort of way.  Crabtree healthy + with a good QB = WR9.  DT not healthy with crappy QB = WR10.  Health and crappy QB can improve.  One could also argue that Cooper > Sanders, so DT has less competition going forward.

I certainly buy that argument--and think DT (and Dez) should be valued over Crabtree because of that.  Simply put, they're more talented.  But the the gap between WR12 and WR34 doesn't accurately reflect that, IMO.  And as both parties are 30 next year, the window for Denver fixing it's QB situation isn't very big.  

I'm not actually sure we don't all agree here.  Does anyone think WR12 and WR34 feels right?  I've got DT lower and Crabtree higher.  

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11 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Good topic and I think the correct answer is (mostly) name value.  I'd throw Dez Bryant into that conversation as well.  I have no issue with anyone preferring DT or Dez to Crabtree, but the gulf, as you put it, is greatly exaggerated.  In that context, Crabtree is a clear buy.

Yeah, Dez is a year younger so I figured DT made for a better comp. But with Dez's injury history, his ranking is really based on a personal preference for injury risk. When healthy, he's one of the few guys that can be top 5 in points without being top 5 in targets. 

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