spider321

Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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8 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I certainly buy that argument--and think DT (and Dez) should be valued over Crabtree because of that.  Simply put, they're more talented.  But the the gap between WR12 and WR34 doesn't accurately reflect that, IMO.  And as both parties are 30 next year, the window for Denver fixing it's QB situation isn't very big.  

I'm not actually sure we don't all agree here.  Does anyone think WR12 and WR34 feels right?  I've got DT lower and Crabtree higher.  

I think they should be ranked very similarly, but if we want to get into the nitty gritty of it, I think Crabtree will age better than DT. His strengths are route running and hands and those items have a longer expiration date than speed. I don't think anyone will want to count on either player as their WR3 at age 35, but if we were to place a bet right now as to which one will still be in the league at age 35, I'd take Crabtree over DT. So I expect them to put up similar fantasy stats for the next 2 years, but DT's cliff will come faster and fall off harder. Vincent Jackson-esque. Crabtree is more like a poor man's Fitzgerald.

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51 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

And yet? Why do you lead off with "and yet"? That was weird. And from there you managed to get really defensive about DT and not answer the question. Anyway, in regular ol' 1ppr he sits at 10th, not 9th, behind Crabtree. So if this was one of those 10 times you picked him over the Crabman, you missed. But congrats on being part of the consensus opinion. It's a long and lonely branch. 

And I guess you missed it, but he's ranked WR12 on those dynasty rankings, so I don't understand the "no one believes in this guy" stance, when he's clearly valued quite highly by many.

I don't mean to turn this into a DT bashing thread, but I'll tell you why he won't be top 5 next year... he won't be top 5 unless he gets top 5 targets or if Peyton comes back to pepper the whole team with TDs. The problem is, nobody is going to throw 35+ TDs in Denver next year and DT isn't good enough to command 180 targets. This year, he's 10th in WR targets and 10th in WR points. He's a good WR. Crabtree is 11th in targets and 9th in points. He's also a good WR. They are the same age and signed to contracts for the same amount of time. So let me repeat the question slowly... why is there such a huge gap between their dynasty values?

Who's defensive here? Geez.

You said, " Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs."

So I said, "And yet..."

My point is that DT continues to produce even when he has no QB - last year he had Peyton and Brock, and they both were horrible, and he still put up top 10 WR numbers. This year he has a no-name QB and he is still putting up top 10 numbers. DT can produce no matter who is at QB, and he's proven that. 

Crabtree has never caught 90 balls in a season (this will be his first). DT has done it 5 years in a row now. Crabtree has never caught double digit TD's. DT did it 3 years in a row. You can put them in the same class because Crabtree had a good year this year, but they really aren't.

Maybe they are ranked so differently because DT has proven to produce even when he has horrible QB play, but Crabtree has not. And most people think DT's QB situation is only going to get better.

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41 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I certainly buy that argument--and think DT (and Dez) should be valued over Crabtree because of that.  Simply put, they're more talented.  But the the gap between WR12 and WR34 doesn't accurately reflect that, IMO.  And as both parties are 30 next year, the window for Denver fixing it's QB situation isn't very big.  

I'm not actually sure we don't all agree here.  Does anyone think WR12 and WR34 feels right?  I've got DT lower and Crabtree higher.  

I'll agree that Crabtree should be a little higher. I think DT is ranked about right.

This year is Crabtree's first year sniffing the top 10 (he was WR 18 last year), and he's only getting older. DT is in the top 10 every year. So while I'll agree Crabtree should be ranked higher, I don't think he's that close to DT where they should be ranked about the same.

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15 minutes ago, kutta said:

Who's defensive here? Geez.

You said, " Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs."

So I said, "And yet..."

My point is that DT continues to produce even when he has no QB - last year he had Peyton and Brock, and they both were horrible, and he still put up top 10 WR numbers. This year he has a no-name QB and he is still putting up top 10 numbers. DT can produce no matter who is at QB, and he's proven that. 

Crabtree has never caught 90 balls in a season (this will be his first). DT has done it 5 years in a row now. Crabtree has never caught double digit TD's. DT did it 3 years in a row. You can put them in the same class because Crabtree had a good year this year, but they really aren't.

Maybe they are ranked so differently because DT has proven to produce even when he has horrible QB play, but Crabtree has not. And most people think DT's QB situation is only going to get better.

You keep looking backwards. We're talking about dynasty rankings. Had Crabtree played on that Denver team with Peyton as his QB, then I'm sure things would be different. His early years were spent on SF teams where he didn't have crazy volume like DT (even with mediocre QBs, he's propped up by volume). He's only had two seasons in Oakland and they've both been good. He's got 3 more seasons in Oakland. How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

You keep looking backwards. We're talking about dynasty rankings. Had Crabtree played on that Denver team with Peyton as his QB, then I'm sure things would be different. His early years were spent on SF teams where he didn't have crazy volume like DT (even with mediocre QBs, he's propped up by volume). He's only had two seasons in Oakland and they've both been good. He's got 3 more seasons in Oakland. How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

All we have is the past to look at to see how guys perform, so it's very relevant. 

I don't see DT's volume going down all that much (he will probably have the third most targets of his career this year). And if he gets a "real" QB like Romo next year, watch out. He'll vault right back to the top 5.

I'll admit I'm higher on DT than most. I think he's an elite talent and will continue to be very good for the next few years. I think the big difference is that DT's QB really doesn't matter (I think you will agree that Brock and Peyton were absolutely horrible last year). If Carr ever gets hurt, Crabtree will really suffer. So I do think DT is a much better bet to post good numbers over the next few years than Crabtree.

And as I said earlier, I think Crabtree should be higher than WR 34 going forward. I just don't think he should be ranked really close to DT.

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16 hours ago, kutta said:

All we have is the past to look at to see how guys perform, so it's very relevant. 

I don't see DT's volume going down all that much (he will probably have the third most targets of his career this year). And if he gets a "real" QB like Romo next year, watch out. He'll vault right back to the top 5.

I'll admit I'm higher on DT than most. I think he's an elite talent and will continue to be very good for the next few years. I think the big difference is that DT's QB really doesn't matter (I think you will agree that Brock and Peyton were absolutely horrible last year). If Carr ever gets hurt, Crabtree will really suffer. So I do think DT is a much better bet to post good numbers over the next few years than Crabtree.

And as I said earlier, I think Crabtree should be higher than WR 34 going forward. I just don't think he should be ranked really close to DT.

Sure, the past can help predict future performance but the problem is that a WR's performance is largely tied to the system he's in. So basing future predictions off of Crabtree's SF days is stupid. He's not in SF anymore. He's got two years with Derek Carr under his belt and he'll have three more. Ignore SF, just look at the relevant years. As for DT, I'm sorry but the days of 4500 yards and 45 TDs passing in Denver are gone. Ignore those years because they aren't relevant anymore. Peyton isn't coming back. Look at the last two years. That's about what's he'll have going forward. Denver's aggregate QB last year was 12th in attempts and 14th in passing yards, so it's not like Old Peyton + Oz = absolutely horrible as you say. That many yards and attempts still produces WR points in a PPR format. That range of QB performance is probably what DT will be dealing with for the next few years, so 2015 and 2016 should be pretty good predictors for him. (so far this season, DEN QB = 18th in yards and 16th in attempts)

I don't know if you follow Matt Harmon's reception perception, but I'm a big fan. He broke down DT's film and I could be mistaken but my recollection was that he concluded DT was a good, but limited WR. So I disagree that he's elite. Ok, I took the time to look it up. Here's the article. I won't quote all of it, but here's a snippet:  Reception Perception illuminated what diligent tape watchers saw with their eyes. Demaryius Thomas, for all his prolific stats, is a glorified role player. One of the NFL’s best receivers, but inherently limited in what he brings to the table.  Thomas posted an above average SRVC score on only four routes—the screen, slant, post and nine. You’ll also notice that he accumulated almost all of his production or PTS on those same patterns. It’s striking to see one the NFL’s most prolific statistical producers grade out so limited.

Regardless of our labels for these guys, my questions that you didn't answer are still worth considering, so I'll ask them again:

How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

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Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

 

I think Thomas is a good player but id move him for any of those three pieces. 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

 

I'd move him for 1.02 or 1.03 if you could (assuming not a Devy league).  I'd rather have Fournette, Cook, or Michael Williams.

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On 12/20/2016 at 2:07 PM, steelers1080 said:

I'd move him for 1.02 or 1.03 if you could (assuming not a Devy league).  I'd rather have Fournette, Cook, or Michael Williams.

Why do you think Michael Williams will be better than Thomas?

What Thomas has done as a rookie is remarkably good. I could see being concerned that Brees may get old and fall off, which could affect all Saints players, but Williams hasn't done a thing in the NFL yet. Do you feel confident that he will be able to replicate what Thomas has done as rookie?

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On 12/20/2016 at 0:37 PM, Concept Coop said:

Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

I don't have a lot of confidence in my perspective here, so take it with a grain of salt, but my feeling is that he's a sell high. And I wouldn't really want Cooks, either. I think both are inflated by Brees' ability and the system Sean Payton runs. IIRC, Matt Harmon's reception perception wasn't particularly glowing for either of those two players. With Brees getting older, I'd try to move both of those guys. Maybe see if you can find a disgruntled AR15 owner, or give up his youth for a better, older WR.

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21 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Why do you think Michael Williams will be better than Thomas?

What Thomas has done as a rookie is remarkably good. I could see being concerned that Brees may get old and fall off, which could affect all Saints players, but Williams hasn't done a thing in the NFL yet. Do you feel confident that he will be able to replicate what Thomas has done as rookie?

I don't necessarily think he'll be as good as a rookie, but I think he has more long-term potential (depending on what team he goes to).  He's 1.5 years younger and I don't trust any Saint to put up reliable numbers and who knows what will happen when Brees leaves (which could happen this offseason).  

And, I'm a fantasy risk taker.  Last year I traded Odell Beckham away at his height for a Lev Bell who had just torn ligaments and David Johnson who was a rookie who flashed some potential.  Turned out pretty well.

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On 12/16/2016 at 3:48 PM, Concept Coop said:

Rant:  Can anyone tell me why LeVeon Bell isn't more situation dependant than Zeke Elliott?  The Cowboys have a better line, but also see more 8 man fronts than anyone.  Sure, Darren McFadden put up 1,000 yards last year, but 32-33YO DeAngelo Williams is a high end RB1 when he starts.  If I'm a Zeke owner (PPR), I think I'd take him in PIT over DAL; short-term, at least. 

NO, they can't.  Because Bell is every bit as situation dependent as Zeke.  They're still either the top 2 or 2 of the top few RBs in the league, but they rely heavily on their teammates.  Pretty much the same as every RB not named Barry (maybe LT and AD in their prime) does. 

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On 12/20/2016 at 8:37 AM, FF Ninja said:

Sure, the past can help predict future performance but the problem is that a WR's performance is largely tied to the system he's in. So basing future predictions off of Crabtree's SF days is stupid. He's not in SF anymore. He's got two years with Derek Carr under his belt and he'll have three more. Ignore SF, just look at the relevant years. As for DT, I'm sorry but the days of 4500 yards and 45 TDs passing in Denver are gone. Ignore those years because they aren't relevant anymore. Peyton isn't coming back. Look at the last two years. That's about what's he'll have going forward. Denver's aggregate QB last year was 12th in attempts and 14th in passing yards, so it's not like Old Peyton + Oz = absolutely horrible as you say. That many yards and attempts still produces WR points in a PPR format. That range of QB performance is probably what DT will be dealing with for the next few years, so 2015 and 2016 should be pretty good predictors for him. (so far this season, DEN QB = 18th in yards and 16th in attempts)

I don't know if you follow Matt Harmon's reception perception, but I'm a big fan. He broke down DT's film and I could be mistaken but my recollection was that he concluded DT was a good, but limited WR. So I disagree that he's elite. Ok, I took the time to look it up. Here's the article. I won't quote all of it, but here's a snippet:  Reception Perception illuminated what diligent tape watchers saw with their eyes. Demaryius Thomas, for all his prolific stats, is a glorified role player. One of the NFL’s best receivers, but inherently limited in what he brings to the table.  Thomas posted an above average SRVC score on only four routes—the screen, slant, post and nine. You’ll also notice that he accumulated almost all of his production or PTS on those same patterns. It’s striking to see one the NFL’s most prolific statistical producers grade out so limited.

Regardless of our labels for these guys, my questions that you didn't answer are still worth considering, so I'll ask them again:

How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

I think this last week is a good example of what you are pointing out. While DT has performed well with bad QB's over the past two years, Siemian was awful Sunday, and it followed that DT was bad too. I'm not going to change my thoughts on DT on one game, but it's pretty easy to see how DT could start declining if the QB play in Denver doesn't improve. I personally don't think they will stick with Siemian next year, and I could see them bringing in a vet like Romo, but we'll see. If that happens, I think DT's value goes up and he's easily a top 8 WR. 

Crabtree, on the other hand, has a more stable situation at QB, so his numbers shouldn't change much. However, Cooper had a down year and he could take numbers from Crabtree next year, so we'll see what happens there.

So, with that said, I still like DT over Crabtree, and I still agree that they shouldn't be ranked as far apart as you pointed out. But last week's games made me think about this thread a bit, and I will admit that these guys should be pretty darn close in dynasty rankings.

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Elliott is going to do to rookie RB speculative value what the 2014 WR class did for rookie WR value and those holding early picks should be able to really cash in.  If I had the 1.01 anywhere I'd definitely be looking to move it.  Best I ended up with was 1.03 in one league and 1.05 in another so I won't see that fallout unless I'm able to move up.

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Draft pick price check on Doug Martin. I was thinking of offering him up for a 2018 draft pick a couple of weeks ago. Now the whole benching thing has happened. Not sure what "name" value he has left.

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52 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Elliott is going to do to rookie RB speculative value what the 2014 WR class did for rookie WR value and those holding early picks should be able to really cash in.  If I had the 1.01 anywhere I'd definitely be looking to move it.  Best I ended up with was 1.03 in one league and 1.05 in another so I won't see that fallout unless I'm able to move up.

I ended up with 1.04 and 1.07. The guys with the top two picks have shown no desire to even talk trades. I am loaded at WR in my dyno; wondering if I trade back from 1.04, pick up extra picks and let other take a WR?  But will everyone go RB crazy in the top 6?

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12 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

Draft pick price check on Doug Martin. I was thinking of offering him up for a 2018 draft pick a couple of weeks ago. Now the whole benching thing has happened. Not sure what "name" value he has left.

Right now i think you'd be lucky to get a 2nd

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8 hours ago, kutta said:

I think this last week is a good example of what you are pointing out. While DT has performed well with bad QB's over the past two years, Siemian was awful Sunday, and it followed that DT was bad too. I'm not going to change my thoughts on DT on one game, but it's pretty easy to see how DT could start declining if the QB play in Denver doesn't improve. I personally don't think they will stick with Siemian next year, and I could see them bringing in a vet like Romo, but we'll see. If that happens, I think DT's value goes up and he's easily a top 8 WR. 

Crabtree, on the other hand, has a more stable situation at QB, so his numbers shouldn't change much. However, Cooper had a down year and he could take numbers from Crabtree next year, so we'll see what happens there.

So, with that said, I still like DT over Crabtree, and I still agree that they shouldn't be ranked as far apart as you pointed out. But last week's games made me think about this thread a bit, and I will admit that these guys should be pretty darn close in dynasty rankings.

:confused:Hard to say Cooper had a down year when he's only played 2 years and this year was better than last year. Sure, Cooper could develop and steal some targets, but there are plenty of targets to go around on that offense and it is no guarantee that Cooper will actually take that step. Through week 16 (in 1ppr) Crabtree is WR9, DT is WR13, and Cooper is WR14 (in standard they are 11, 16, 13 respectively). Cooper is the deep threat while Crabtree is better at the goal line. On the whole, I think they complement each other pretty well, so one should not negatively impact the other very much if at all. 

I'll admit, I thought DT was overrated as hell this year due to the fact he finished WR11 (WR13 0ppr) last year and had worse QBs this year, but I was wrong - he didn't slip nearly as much as I thought he would... however, I think this is the new reality for him, so I still think he's an overrated dynasty player largely due to name recognition from his Peyton days. I think he's got 2-3 more years of fringe WR1/2 production and then he'll fall off a cliff. If he's only got 4 good routes and the post and the nine are two of them, he's not going to be good when he slows down. If I was you, I'd consider moving him while he's still got value. The memory of the good days in Denver will fade soon and, right or wrong, he'll be ranked really low with the likes of Crabtree. However, I agree with you that if they bring in Romo, things will really look up for DT. That would definitely be the time to cash those chips in, given Romo's health. If they bring in Glennon, then I think he'd be worth hanging onto since Glennon can hit him deep.

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Rank these assets and expected compensation.

AP
Theo Riddick
Crabtree
Ware/Charles

Edited by 32 Counter Pass

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On 12/14/2016 at 1:17 PM, ShamrockPride said:

What do we do with Lamar Miller my friends?

Miller is a hold for me. I will also try to acquire him elsewhere if the price is reasonable. I believe a lot of his issues are related to the oline and to a lesser degree the QB play. The Texans lost Nick Martin in preseason, and played without Duane Brown for several weeks.

Martin will return and I expect the Texans will bolster the oline thru FA and the draft. 

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Elliott is going to do to rookie RB speculative value what the 2014 WR class did for rookie WR value and those holding early picks should be able to really cash in.  If I had the 1.01 anywhere I'd definitely be looking to move it.  Best I ended up with was 1.03 in one league and 1.05 in another so I won't see that fallout unless I'm able to move up.

I have the 1.1 (and 1.4).  What would fair value be for the #1, honestly?  I already own Zeke.  Maybe Beckham, Evans, Bell, David Johnson, Cooper, Brown, or Julio?  Honestly don't know if I'd move it for AJ Green alone.  If I didn't have Reed and Ebron then maybe I'd do it for Gronk?  Anything else would be a combo of stuff.

Maybe I move the #4 first, and then ask for more if I were to move the 1.

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1 hour ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Good topic! What is Dak's value at this point?

 

Dak is my #4 rated QB. There's only 3 QB's I'd take in front of him. Rodgers, Luck, Wilson. He's got an elite WR that is 28 years old, his OL is the best in football, and a good RB but all that alone is not what pushes him into that elite tier.......he's got 6 rushing TD's this year. He's going to run for 5-8 TD's a year for the next 4-5 years. Couple that with 30+ passing TD potential and you can see him having a year or two like Cam had last year. Cam got a lot of people into the playoffs with his monster year......

 

It's close between Cam and Dak but Cam isn't running anymore. Non running Cam is just mediocre......plus Dak is Cam just 4 years younger....... 

 

 

****edit****

I might even rank him in front of Rodgers.....it's close. Dak is 10 years younger than Rodgers so if I was rebuilding I'd rather have Dak. If I was a contender than I'd rather have Rodgers.

Edited by Milkman

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2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Elliott is going to do to rookie RB speculative value what the 2014 WR class did for rookie WR value and those holding early picks should be able to really cash in.  If I had the 1.01 anywhere I'd definitely be looking to move it.  Best I ended up with was 1.03 in one league and 1.05 in another so I won't see that fallout unless I'm able to move up.

In the NFL, I would expect teams to put a premium on OL after seeing DAL draft success. They built an OL and then drafted the RB for the OL. INDY just added 3 guys in 2016 trying to fix their disastrous OL. You can't fix your running game by drafting a RB. You do it by fixing the OL.

ATL fixed theirs. Mack was a helluva signing. Wash fixed theirs as well.

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1 hour ago, matttyl said:

I have the 1.1 (and 1.4).  What would fair value be for the #1, honestly?  I already own Zeke.  Maybe Beckham, Evans, Bell, David Johnson, Cooper, Brown, or Julio?  Honestly don't know if I'd move it for AJ Green alone.  If I didn't have Reed and Ebron then maybe I'd do it for Gronk?  Anything else would be a combo of stuff.

Maybe I move the #4 first, and then ask for more if I were to move the 1.

I'd want significantly more than just the 1.1 for all of those players except maybe Bell. Depending on where he ends up coupled with his suspension risk I might do it for the 1.1 if I like the player I'm going to get there a lot........ 

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20 minutes ago, matttyl said:

I have the 1.1 (and 1.4).  What would fair value be for the #1, honestly?  I already own Zeke.  Maybe Beckham, Evans, Bell, David Johnson, Cooper, Brown, or Julio?  Honestly don't know if I'd move it for AJ Green alone.  If I didn't have Reed and Ebron then maybe I'd do it for Gronk?  Anything else would be a combo of stuff.

Maybe I move the #4 first, and then ask for more if I were to move the 1.

Kind of proves my point. I wouldn't give any of those for #1 right now.  There is no Dallas OLine in the picture for these guys.  Oakland is the next best landing spot but they won't see Fournette or Cook and after those tow there's a talent deficit to weigh (as of today).  One of the things I loved about Chubb and Mixon is that both could have been in play for them, but kiss that goodbye.

Fournette is probably situation-proof, as anyone drafting him is going to clear the path for him, but he's still not going to get the team factor EZE did.  Cook in Indy or Green Bay would be very interesting.  Under no circumstances are David Johnson, Bell, Gurley (coach resolution aside, if they clown that up he moves down), Gordon, OBJ, Evans, AB, AJG, or Julio in the conversation straight up.  That next tier is where it gets fun - Hyde, Freeman, Shady, Dez, DT, guys with some level of age/injury/consistency concern.

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By the time the draft rolls around i expect the 1.01 to pull some first tier players. You'd have to be very shortsighted to trade it for the old and/or injured. Only automatic no's imo are Zeke, OBJ and Evans.

Edited by fruity pebbles
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10 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

By the time the draft rolls around i expect the 1.01 to pull some first tier players. You'd have to be very shortsighted to trade it for the old and/or injured. Only automatic no's imo are Zeke, OBJ and Evans.

This and I think 1.02 will also pull the same as long as both Fournette and Cook don't wind up in total timeshares.

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15 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

By the time the draft rolls around i expect the 1.01 to pull some first tier players. You'd have to be very shortsighted to trade it for the old and/or injured. Only automatic no's imo are Zeke, OBJ and Evans.

DJ?

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No way in hell I'm giving DJ up for the 1.1 straight up. Really DJ is untradeable unless someone just breaks the bank for him.

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6 minutes ago, Milkman said:

No way in hell I'm giving DJ up for the 1.1 straight up. Really DJ is untradeable unless someone just breaks the bank for him.

Yeah why would you do that?

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Dak is my #4 rated QB. There's only 3 QB's I'd take in front of him. Rodgers, Luck, Wilson. He's got an elite WR that is 28 years old, his OL is the best in football, and a good RB but all that alone is not what pushes him into that elite tier.......he's got 6 rushing TD's this year. He's going to run for 5-8 TD's a year for the next 4-5 years. Couple that with 30+ passing TD potential and you can see him having a year or two like Cam had last year. Cam got a lot of people into the playoffs with his monster year......

 

It's close between Cam and Dak but Cam isn't running anymore. Non running Cam is just mediocre......plus Dak is Cam just 4 years younger....... 

 

 

****edit****

I might even rank him in front of Rodgers.....it's close. Dak is 10 years younger than Rodgers so if I was rebuilding I'd rather have Dak. If I was a contender than I'd rather have Rodgers.

What sort of compensation should I expect for Dak? Full disclosure I also hold Rodgers.

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42 minutes ago, Milkman said:

No way in hell I'm giving DJ up for the 1.1 straight up. Really DJ is untradeable unless someone just breaks the bank for him.

Hes an older back already. 26 during next season. I could see a rebuilding team moving him for the 1.01 and bit more.

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33 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

What sort of compensation should I expect for Dak? Full disclosure I also hold Rodgers.

I wouldn't trade him if I owned both. I'd trade Rodgers right now for peak peak return. 

If you still want to trade a duel threat rookie QB that has outperformed everybody's expectations then I would say you should be able to get lower end WR2 you like or mid round 1st. 

He should be valued in the same tier as Luck but isn't yet. He's a strong buy and hold not an asset you should be looking to sell. 

Edited by Milkman

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

Dak is my #4 rated QB. There's only 3 QB's I'd take in front of him. Rodgers, Luck, Wilson. He's got an elite WR that is 28 years old, his OL is the best in football, and a good RB but all that alone is not what pushes him into that elite tier.......he's got 6 rushing TD's this year. He's going to run for 5-8 TD's a year for the next 4-5 years. Couple that with 30+ passing TD potential and you can see him having a year or two like Cam had last year. Cam got a lot of people into the playoffs with his monster year......

 

It's close between Cam and Dak but Cam isn't running anymore. Non running Cam is just mediocre......plus Dak is Cam just 4 years younger....... 

 

 

****edit****

I might even rank him in front of Rodgers.....it's close. Dak is 10 years younger than Rodgers so if I was rebuilding I'd rather have Dak. If I was a contender than I'd rather have Rodgers.

In one non-PPR dyno I am in, I have Luck, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins and Alex Smith.  Just before the trade deadline, I couldn't get a thing for Prescott or Cousins or Smith.  Nothing.

Maybe I'm in the wrong (ie, "non-active") leagues?

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45 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Hes an older back already. 26 during next season. I could see a rebuilding team moving him for the 1.01 and bit more.

yeah but DJ is a duel threat RB that is amazing in the passing game. I could easily see a scenario where Arizona wanted to keep him fresh through the year as he gets older so they brought in a thumper to run in between the tackles. This would be a death sentence for most RB but DJ is averaging nearly 8 targets a game. If he only got 10 carries a game to go along with those 8 targets and the GL carries he's still a strong RB1. Lets take his floor for instance if he found himself in a time share. 60 catches for 700 and 2 TD's plus 160 carries 680 yards and 6 TD's. Admittedly I'm doing this quickly but you get the point. That's 250 points roughly if he was in a time share. That would put him at RB7 in my league this year. His floor is RB1 for as long as he can play 3rd downs and be an effective GL back. How long do we anticipate him being able to do that? The early down thumper work is the least valuable work he does for us playing in PPR leagues.

 

Nah I'm going to keep him until at least age 29 and I might just keep him until the wheels fall off.

 

 

 

Edited by Milkman

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9 minutes ago, Spike said:

In one non-PPR dyno I am in, I have Luck, Wilson, Prescott, Cousins and Alex Smith.  Just before the trade deadline, I couldn't get a thing for Prescott or Cousins or Smith.  Nothing.

Maybe I'm in the wrong (ie, "non-active") leagues?

I'm higher on him than most. I tried to trade him for Rivers before news broke that Romo was not the starter anymore. He then continued to play better than anybody expected and is now going downfield more which was the thing he supposedly couldn't do. I'm not against taking risks and I also own Rodgers. I will be actively shopping him to see if I can get into the first part of this draft......I have no issues going into next year with Prescott as my QB1.

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11 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

Hard trading QBs in anything but very large or start 2QB leagues

Yeah agreed. Luck and Rodgers (maybe with his play of late) seem like the only ones right now that would get any return.

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