joey
Footballguy
thanks bagel. All this feedback is greatly appreciated by those of us who watch zero college football.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
Milkman
Footballguy
Woods was the buy this offseason. Now more people know about him. Cooks isn't going anywhere either.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think he’s a guy whose lack of name value can still be exploited. It feels like you could get him for a late first - and that shouldn’t be the case, imo. I’m sure plenty of folks would be willing to add to him for Amari Cooper or Sammy Watkins, and I’d happily take the Woods side of a deal like that.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Revisiting Tyler Boyd: I just turned down a 1st for him (currently 1.09; could go either way). The offer forced me to nail down my stance on him a bit. After re-watching every target from weeks 2-6, and reading a few fluff articles, I’m comfortable saying that I’d pay a mid-1st for him. He’s put on weight and things are clicking for him - this stretch isn’t a fluke. He looks an awful lot like Keenan Allen in a Bengals jersey to me.
This has been my thought since the offseason. I was wrong to not take note of his contract last year and missed on him. I did not make the same mistake twice, although it was more costly to get him this year. Before the injuries to Kupp and Cooks, I think he was still the target leader. He's just a good, well rounded player. 6' 4.5 guy. Fast enough to get deep, big enough to not be overlooked in the red zone. He's kind of right in between Kupp and Cooks in a lot of ways. It seems like he's been around forever, but he's only 1 year older than Kupp and Cooks.
But that being said, I think all three are great assets. McVay knows what he's doing and will find a way to utilize the strengths of each of them. They were each playing 95%+ of the snaps every week and the target distribution was just about even between them. Actually, I just looked it up and it was 34-33-32 (Woods-Cooks-Kupp) through 4 weeks, so basically a negligible difference. Same with snap counts: 260-259-261.
I would buy whichever one I could get cheapest.
As for Cooks, I didn't like the trade and contract despite believing he's a good player. I just thought they should use that 1st for something like Whitworth's replacement. I thought (and posted in here that) Albert Wilson would suffice in Cooks' role for half the price. I still feel like Wilson would've been good in that role and a good addition to the team (as seen by his week 6 performance!), but as can be seen with the target distribution Cooks is being used a lot - much more than just a field stretcher. If healthy, he could lead the league in receiving yards in this offense. He was on pace for over 1800 yards through 4 weeks on a sustainable 132 target pace.
Guice would easily be the top RB in the 2019 class if he were to have stuck around. So if RB is your primary need, I'd stand pat. I think we'll see a WR or two emerge that would make Guice for 1.01/1.02 a pretty enticing trade if WR is a point of need for your team.
I've owned Boyd in a 16 team IDP dynasty league since I drafted him late round 1. I've come close to dropping him several times, and he was easily "gettable" for a song past seasons. Nobody had any interest till a few weeks ago. I was offered Dan Bailey (I asked for the kicker as a throw-in since I didn't have one), a 2nd (likely mid-ish) and a 4th. Kind of an annoying league because some teams will hoard kickers so they can flip them for a 4th (happens regularly). I never saw the value in wasting 3 roster spots on kickers just to get an extra late pick. Even temp kickers get bid on pretty robustly.
I turned it down because I just couldn't ignore his performance and role. Glad I did. I have a bad habit of giving up too quickly on young players (smallish rosters too), Davante Adams likely could have been had from me too, since he had kind of a slow start to his career. Nobody was interested in him back then either. I wouldn't take a late-ish 1st for Boyd now.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'll concede that he's ascended past that roster clogger mid range flex guy that people are generally uncomfortable with in their lineup. He's looked fantastic for sure. That said he might just be one of those that's always undervalued by the masses. I generally try to stay away from those on my roster because if I ever decided to trade them, I wouldn't get much in return. Very much like Adam Thielen. He just doesn't hold a top10 dynasty WR price tag, when he should. If you're the guy that is on those types early, it's a treat to have them on your roster.
I went a re-looked at my pre-season dynasty rankings and the only place that makes sense for him is in the 20-30 range. I had him way too low, but part of that was because I knew the Bengals were due for a better year, I just didn't expect them to firing on all cylinders. He looks great, but this is also a peak performing offense right now. It's funny you say he looks like Keenan Allen in a Bengals jersey, because I thought he looked a lot like Landry and I think I might prefer Boyd in that scenario.
I'm not entirely sure that's true.
I think he would've been in discussion for the top RB in the 2019 draft class but it's far too early to tell at this point and make statements like 'easily' the top RB.
Now you have Guice also coming off a torn ACL and a lost season.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I agree. I think it’s safe to say he was widely viewed as a better prospect than any of the healthy 2019 guys, at this point in he process. But as you correctly point out, it’s early.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
So who has the better career (FF wise), Goedert or Gesicki?
Dynasty 12 Team, deep-bench, .5 PPR league.
QB: R. WIlson, J. Winston, L. Jackson
RB: Gurley, Fournette, A. Collins, C. Hyde, AP, C. Carson
WR: A. Jeffrey, A. Cooper, J. Gordon, T. Lockett, D. Westbrook, G. Allison, C. Williams, L. Treadwell, J. Reynolds
TE: Ozumah
2 RB, 2 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
Have an offer for Fournette; I get Chubb, 2019 late-1st, and 2020 2nd.
Thoughts? I trust Waldman's RSP and know Chubb was his #1 pre-draft.
QB: R. WIlson, J. Winston, L. Jackson
RB: Gurley, Fournette, A. Collins, C. Hyde, AP, C. Carson
WR: A. Jeffrey, A. Cooper, J. Gordon, T. Lockett, D. Westbrook, G. Allison, C. Williams, L. Treadwell, J. Reynolds
TE: Ozumah
2 RB, 2 WR, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 TE
Have an offer for Fournette; I get Chubb, 2019 late-1st, and 2020 2nd.
Thoughts? I trust Waldman's RSP and know Chubb was his #1 pre-draft.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This is better suited for the Assistant Coach forum. I like the Fournette side, but think it's fair. I'd be surprised if Waldman didn't view the picks as free, however.BBinSF said:
Sure, anything is possible, but don't conflate possible with probable. I'd love to hear which 2019 RB prospect either of you would take over Guice. From what I've read so far, I'm not on an island on this one. We're two months into the college football season and I'm not seeing anyone I'd rather have.ty247 said:
As for coming off an ACL injury, I think that's just reaching for something to worry about. Gurley was still a top draft pick after a torn ACL in college. It's become a rather routine procedure with no ill effects expected in this day and age. The pre-2000's stigma can be laid to rest. Can anyone even think of someone to have a non-contact ACL tear and come back noticeably diminished?
And the lost season... so? If you're worried about age, Guice was well over a year younger than many of the top RB prospects this year, so I think he'll probably be around the median age of the prospects in 2019, but I haven't looked that up to confirm.
The bolded by CC is all I was really getting at.Concept Coop said:
Just some food for thought, the latest DLF rookie mock I saw didn't have an RB go off the board until 1.08.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I wouldn't pay a 2nd myself. But then again my rule is never trade 1sts or 2nds for age. NEVER. There's easy to find younger WR's that I'd rather gamble on for that type of price. No idea if that's his price I'm just saying. I can't imagine someone paying more than that anymore. He's practically dead in the water to me.
He's an interesting dynasty player. I gotta disagree with Zyphros in this instance. I think he's worth a 2nd if someone will sell him that cheaply. I know in the heat of the moment we all think we're getting a future starter with our 2nd round picks, but look back at old drafts and the hit rate is maybe 25%. And that's just the 2nd round in general. If you're trading for Baldwin now, I'm assuming you're a playoff contender, so we're actually talking about a mid-to-late 2nd. The odds are probably less than 25% at that point. So what happens? You end up burning a roster spot on Quinton Patton or AJ Jenkins for 3 years. Or maybe you sort of hit on a guy like Sanu who kind of has relevance after 3 years. Rarely do you actually get Jordan Howard... and at this point, who is starting Howard with confidence? Anyway, you get the point: the primary value of a late 2nd is that it has trade value.Boone22 said:
Baldwin just turned 30. Scary to some people, but realistically not that bad for a WR. He's a slot receiver and they tend to have a pretty good shelf life. Fitzgerald is special, so I won't point to him, but you should get at least 2-3 years at or near current pace from a 30 year old slot guy and very possibly a few bonus years with lower fantasy expectations. Edelman just came back from an ACL and he's over 2 years older than Baldwin and he's putting up solid WR2 numbers. Baldwin is signed through 2020 with Seattle where he's been a low-end WR1 for the past 3 years. He will be a cut candidate in 2020, but if he's healthy and producing in 2019 his $11.5M salary will look relatively cheap given the increasing cap and WR contract trends.
There was some drama surrounding a preseason quote about only being 85% this season, but he later clarified that he doesn't feel like he's been 100% since he was a kid. This injury scare was later compounded by a totally unrelated MCL injury. This created the current buying situation. He had a nice game in London (8 targets, 6 rec, 91 yards). Two plays in a row here. Seems like he's back to his old self to me.
So in summary, I'd trade a 2nd with expectations of 2-3 years of WR2 production. He's a perfect bridge WR if you are looking to improve your WR3/flex position immediately while developing a few young WRs that will take some time (Chark, Lasley, Pettis, Cain, Hamilton, etc.).
That being said, I'm with Zyphros about not trading a 1st for age. I just don't value 2nds as much as he does.
Zyphros
Footballguy
With his injuries, there just isn't the upside anymore. I'd imagine some guys with youth you could buy at the late 1st - mid 2nd type of price are these: Anthony Miller, Marquise Goodwin, Curtis Samuel, John Brown, Tre'Quan Smith (get him now before he blows up), hell Baldwin's own teamate Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper (if you believe in his new landing spot, not sure if a 1st would get it done though), Devin Funchess, Martavis Bryant, Sanders if you want roughly the same age but more production, Enunwa, Shepard, Djax, Allison, need I go on? They all seem like close comparisons for the price that Baldwin would be going for and some are ascending into expanded roles, just depends on how bullish you are on them.
Some of them come with some risk for sure, but the ceiling/floor seem to be close to what Baldwin provides, or use to provide. I wouldn't target Baldwin if I'm a compete now team unless the price was cheap, but that plays more into my philosophy than his value. I would target a younger guy that's undervalued like some of them I listed with a comparable ceiling/floor.
Well, I think the "injuries" are largely overstated. The knee thing was blown out of proportion and the MCL has healed. I feel like you've moved the goal posts a bit* as the guys you mentioned all cost more than a potential playoff team's 2nd AND they won't help you that much this year (which would be the primary purpose of buying Baldwin). I am a Lockett fan, but he's played 7 full games this season and never got 8 targets. Baldwin just got 8 targets last week. Anthony Miller is playing 3rd or 4th fiddle on a questionable offense and has yet to surpass 35 yards receiving (also his fanboys are not selling for less than a 1st). Goodwin (only 2 years younger) is catching passes from Beathard and only has 1 game over 30 yards, Samuel... I don't even know what to say about this one - he's essentially worthless (5 targets on the year, 5th on the WR depth chart), John Brown is only 1.5 years younger than Baldwin and has worse injury concerns IMO (sickle cell) and a worse QB, Funchess will cost way more than Baldwin, Bryant is a very risky but reasonable suggestion after the Cooper trade, Sanders is 1.5 years OLDER than Baldwin, Enunwa is currently hurt and has been less productive since moving to outside WR, Shepard I like a lot but will cost more than Baldwin, DJax is 2 years older and inconsistent, Allison is probably not possible to pry away for a 2nd but if you can then good job.
*it's weird that you say you wouldn't pay a 2nd due to age and then listed a bunch of guys that cost a 1st or are old or have very little current season value. The main point of trading for Baldwin right now would be to help a team make/win the current playoffs. Almost none of the young guys you mentioned would do that and almost none of the older guys would maintain any value in 2019/2020.
Great points, FFN. I think it would be tough to pry Baldwin off of a team for a 2nd, especially now that he's back on the field. The time to do that was a month ago.
And I'm in complete agreement regarding 2nd round picks. People lust after them like Cindy Crawford in her prime, but the reality is that they are far more likely to be Estelle Getty.
And I'm in complete agreement regarding 2nd round picks. People lust after them like Cindy Crawford in her prime, but the reality is that they are far more likely to be Estelle Getty.
True, which is why I think it is pretty crazy that anyone would pass on him for a 2nd after he showed he's back in week 6. Hypothetically, Baldwin for a 2nd before week 6 was a nice trade with a mild gamble. Baldwin for a 2nd after week 6 seems like a steal to me.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Who said it was a playoff teams 2nd? I said late 1st - mid 2nd for a Baldwin type of player first off. You wanted a list of people that I would value in that range, that's what I gave you... I also gave a few examples of older guys that I'd rather have vs. Baldwin but I still wouldn't buy them (Djax, Sanders, J. Brown). I have no idea how his injuries have tolled up on him, but he isn't exactly a graceful type of player and a little more violent. Doesn't strike me as a guy that would age well, which is why I brought up his injury history. The reasons you nit-pick at guys like Miller, Goodwin, Samuel, Enunwa are the exact reason you might be able to get them in a deal that is similar to what you'd have to give for Baldwin.
I don't expect these guys to completely fill the points that Baldwin would, but eventually I could. But that's the balance we all try to accomplish in our dynasty trades.
Boone22
Footballguy
Well I was the one who asked the original question and FF Ninja’s not too far off my reasoning. I didn’t want to make the question about my team specifically but I’m in a 12 team PPR Dynasty league and I’m looking for some WR depth while sitting at 5-2 with my week 10 bye week issues coming up. I was looking for a WR with fairly consistent production, who wouldn’t cost a large amount, but would provide depth this season and maybe into the next year or two. Baldwin looked like he fit the mold but I’ve never been a big fan of his and I have no idea how to value him moving forward. So I asked the question. Interesting I also consider DJax as you mentioned but his production seems too volatile in that offense with all the other weapons. I’d rather not rely on him as a weekly fill-in as he could easily give you 20 or 3.
edited to add I also own E. Sanders and John Brown so they aren’t options to acquire. Those two guys along with Thielen are all on week 10 byes so if I don’t get any additional depth I’ll be stuck starting only two WRs.. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones.
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No, first off you said "I wouldn't pay a 2nd." I was curious which young guys you thought you could get for a 2nd and only then did you mention a "late 1st - mid 2nd" and proceeded to list a bunch of guys that would cost a 1st and some older guys.
As for if it was a contender's 2nd, why else would someone be inquiring about trading for Baldwin after week 7? If you're a lottery team, you should not be trading picks for 30 year old players that will score enough points to potentially hurt your draft position. So no one explicitly said it, but I thought it was rather obvious. Which is why guys like Miller, Goodwin, Samuel, and Enunwa would be awful trade targets (little to no current year value). But if you aren't thinking about it from a contender's viewpoint I can see why you might target a few of those guys. I still don't like Samuel for any scenario, though.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'm thinking of the question in general as a median. I think contenders tend to overpay for these fill in pieces, and rebuilders tend to underpay (if offers are accepted that is). Maybe it's just me that doesn't like Baldwin as a target, idk. As for the bolded, I might just pay that premium of a 1st rather than a 2nd as long as I'm getting youth and a guy I like which is why I expanded that list.No, first off you said "I wouldn't pay a 2nd." I was curious which young guys you thought you could get for a 2nd and only then did you mention a "late 1st - mid 2nd" and proceeded to list a bunch of guys that would cost a 1st and some older guys.
As for if it was a contender's 2nd, why else would someone be inquiring about trading for Baldwin after week 7? If you're a lottery team, you should not be trading picks for 30 year old players that will score enough points to potentially hurt your draft position. So no one explicitly said it, but I thought it was rather obvious. Which is why guys like Miller, Goodwin, Samuel, and Enunwa would be awful trade targets (little to no current year value). But if you aren't thinking about it from a contender's viewpoint I can see why you might target a few of those guys. I still don't like Samuel for any scenario, though.
Not to fully change the subject but Samuel is just a super interesting case to me so I threw him in there. #40 overall in the draft, good athletic profile, very productive in college, and then rookie year ruined because of injury. The DJ Moore pick muddles that a bit but if you believed in him before he's looking good right now and maybe he's a new team type of guy, although that's still kind of far off.
I'd shy away from DJax as his snap counts are trending in the wrong direction and he's almost 2 years older than Baldwin. If you're 5-2, I'd rather take a hit in week 10 than trade a 2nd for a guy like DJax. If you were 4-3, your margin for error would be lower. You may not be able to get Baldwin for a 2nd, though. I'd consider sweetening the deal by adding a 3rd or 4th if it helped make it happen. I think he's the best bet for 2018 production for the price with the added bonus of a few years of productivity.
That being said, I've mostly been lukewarm on Baldwin through the years. Always happy to take him at a discount in redraft, but never sad to see him go early to someone else. Now seems like a nice time to add him cheaply in dynasty if he's on a non-playoff team.
Gotcha. Contenders probably have to overpay in a lot of instances, but sometimes you can get lucky and find a guy ready and willing to sell. Speaking generally, Cooper is the only guy I would trade a 1st for out of your list of players, although I'd be really hesitant now that he's with Dak. I think Dak is a good NFL QB, but I don't want my WR1 to be paired up with him. I might pay a 1st for Shepard if I was contending and needed that infusion of talent + youth + immediate points. But I would not do it if I was a fringe playoff team. Would feel horrible if I ended up trading a lottery pick for Shepard. Plus, this could be a good WR draft, so it's difficult to trade a 1st for a WR now.
I was never into Samuel, but I can see the appeal. I feel like Moore killed any hope of his relevancy in Carolina, though (this thought is influenced by the fact that I'm a Moore fan, although haven't been able to successfully acquire him). Samuel's got 2 more years before free agency. Might be able to grab him on waivers before then if you are patient. Would not want to trade a pick just to burn a roster spot for 2.5 years while hoping for a free agency miracle.
I don't think I could sell John Ross for a 2nd right now and he's got an astronomically better draft slot, and better speed (when healthy). Samuel can be bought for a 3rd or less, if you want him.
lardonastick
Footballguy
Price check on Courtland Sutton? I want to make an offer in my non-ppr league (start 3). Is a late 2019 1st a massive underpay, or a good starting point?
It’s probably about right, maybe a slight underpay but as a Sutton owner I wouldn’t take it - I think most who have him drafted him with this scenario in mind, ie. minimal early production, then WR1 upside when his situation changes. I just see no reason to sell now if you drafted him, right when his value might spike.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Now is the time to try if you want to sell. A couple of early stinkers with his new team and his value will head further south quickly. There should be at least one owner in your league that thinks highly of him...you just have to locate that owner.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
What's the current value of Lamar Miller & Dallas Goedert? I was offered his Goedert for my Miller in keeper PPR. I've got ample RBs ahead of Miller & I also have Gronk, Geseicki & Herndon at TE. However, I have been trying to move Miller with no bites for a while. So maybe just take the deal then try to flip Goedert or Gesicki w/another player for an upgrade somewhere?
Someone in the Chubb thread did a 4-for-4 where Chubb+Watkins and Cooper+Goff were the only notable names, IMO. Not sure how much that helps, but I guess some people believe Dak will resurrect his career. I'd be sending out offers to every owner if I had Cooper.
Not to me. Kind of a niche question, though, as the only people who would be making that deal right now would be a team in contention that somehow had the worst team's 1st. If you are the worst team in the league, you'd be crazy to trade for AB right now and you'd be crazy to trade the 1.01 for him in the offseason when he'll be turning 31. His time in PIT could be drawing near a close and Ben is almost 37.
I'm guessing both are worth a 2nd to the right owner, but one is a short-term help only and the other is a guy you'll end up holding for 3.5 years. Ertz is only 28 and signed through 2021. Goedert may not be startable until his 2nd contract. He's basically a handcuff until then or a bye week prayer. Out of 7 games, he's had 2 receptions or less in 5 of them... averaging 2.86 targets per game. His role will grow a little over the years, but not a lot of upside in a TE2.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
I was thinking the same on Woods. Made an offer last week of Jamie Collins & my 2019 Round 1 (mid-late) for Woods & Jerry Hughes. I was completely ignored.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Yep... only thing you can do sometimes. Weird b/c the owner has him on the block. :shrugs:
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Price check on Will Fuller. I was offered a 2019 2nd in keep 12 PPR which is obviously not a true second since we can keep 12.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Way low imo. A healthy Coutee seems like a negative influence on his value so far, but at the same time, a healthy Watson and Fuller have been a dynamite combo so far in their careers. When they're all 100% I'm not sure Coutee will continue to be a problem.
While I wouldn't sell for a mid-to-late 1st, I don't have him on my trade block. I think that's about all you can expect unless he's looking for a current player. Might approach him with a player-for-player trade (in lieu of player-for-pick) or just ask him via e-mail/text what he's looking for.
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
I'd have a tough time parting with much for him. His injury history makes him the type of player that can torpedo your team any given week when he goes down in the first quarter. Big upside flex... not sure I'd pay more than a 3rd. I'd probably try to get him as an add-on guy rather than trying to buy him but if you can find the owner that is sick of the headaches he could be solid bargain.
Agreed... it's also a new owner that took over a team that wasn't in great shape. I think the trade block hasn't been updated. Probably a good point to add in a different thread... always keep your trade bait updated!
Elevencents
Footballguy
So I am limited on who to keep (already planning on Kelce, M Thomas and Kamara) so have to cut one of Jordan Howard (8th next year) or Kupp (10th next year) and really torn. Howard has finished 8th/14th the last two years respectively so hate to cut a productive RB loose but his production this year could be a sign of things to come. Or he could be moved in the off-season. I also have Guice locked up so with him and Kamara already starting off alright.
I really like Kupp. Goff is showing he can be an elite QB and Kupp is his red zone target. I have a much better chance of moving him this year for an upgrade somewhere else. Howard not so much. I have OBJ, M Thomas, Hill and Landry starting right now. Kupp for Landry at times. So with Kamara, Kelce and Roethlisberger I’m set up pretty well this year so don’t want to do anything drastic.
I know this is a me me me post but curious on your thoughts of these two guys going forward. Could potentially help someone else too.
I really like Kupp. Goff is showing he can be an elite QB and Kupp is his red zone target. I have a much better chance of moving him this year for an upgrade somewhere else. Howard not so much. I have OBJ, M Thomas, Hill and Landry starting right now. Kupp for Landry at times. So with Kamara, Kelce and Roethlisberger I’m set up pretty well this year so don’t want to do anything drastic.
I know this is a me me me post but curious on your thoughts of these two guys going forward. Could potentially help someone else too.
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NeverEnough
Footballguy
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Well... why didn't you say so? lol... missed that a bit, but now you know what I'd pay.I'm the Fuller owner.
kutta
Footballguy
Kupp and it’s not close for me. He’s going to be a great offense for quite awhile, and he seems like a guy who’s game will age well so I see him having a lot of really good years.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I got the following email from a fellow owner after I declined his offer
I think this guy is just ridiculous. They have no value yet he wants all of them. He followed it up with this email:
"What value does Fournette have? Diggs is low as well and fuller just tore his ACL last night lol. AJ green is the best player in that deal."
He wanted my Fournette, Diggs & Fuller for his Olsen, Callaway & AJG...
I think this guy is just ridiculous. They have no value yet he wants all of them. He followed it up with this email:
"What value does Fournette have? Diggs is low as well and fuller just tore his ACL last night lol. AJ green is the best player in that deal."
He wanted my Fournette, Diggs & Fuller for his Olsen, Callaway & AJG...
