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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (14 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
You should egg him on and reply back saying, "It was so slanted in your favor that I was sure it would get vetoed. I figured I'd save us both time and reject it."
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I’m buying Fuller. I’d probably pay an early 2nd, but he might come cheaper than that.
The talent is there, and that’s he biggest question mark for me. I’m happy to gamble on his health, if the cost reflects the risk. It feels unlikely, but maybe he goes on to have a healthy career. His health history isn’t anymore concerning than Demaryius Thomas’ was at one point.
The talent is there, and that’s he biggest question mark for me. I’m happy to gamble on his health, if the cost reflects the risk. It feels unlikely, but maybe he goes on to have a healthy career. His health history isn’t anymore concerning than Demaryius Thomas’ was at one point.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Agree. Threw out Tyrell Williams for him but was declined. Going to try to add a little more and see what happens.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Here's a couple offers I sent out to some teams in my FFPC league's
Amari, 2nd for Kerryon Johnson - Thought they might be about even in value and I could use a RB. Trying to find the guy who actually likes Amari in that one.
Amari and Engram for Guice/1st (likely late) - The guy with Guice is competing so these pieces aren't the best addition but should retain some value next year I'd imagine. Plus he could use a TE.
Corey Davis/1st (likely late) for AB (he countered with JuJu/1st for AB, I'd rather have JuJu straight up so I just declined and left it alone)
Corey Davis/Marlon Mack/1st for Hunt
These are the ones that were offered to me:
Burton, David Johnson, Goff, Cohen, 1st for my Baker/Barkley
Gallman, Clay, 1st for my Yeldon/OJ Howard
Amari, 2nd for Kerryon Johnson - Thought they might be about even in value and I could use a RB. Trying to find the guy who actually likes Amari in that one.
Amari and Engram for Guice/1st (likely late) - The guy with Guice is competing so these pieces aren't the best addition but should retain some value next year I'd imagine. Plus he could use a TE.
Corey Davis/1st (likely late) for AB (he countered with JuJu/1st for AB, I'd rather have JuJu straight up so I just declined and left it alone)
Corey Davis/Marlon Mack/1st for Hunt
These are the ones that were offered to me:
Burton, David Johnson, Goff, Cohen, 1st for my Baker/Barkley
Gallman, Clay, 1st for my Yeldon/OJ Howard
dipandglide
Footballguy
Anyone have thoughts on Guice vs. Fournette? I have an owner that wants Guice/mid 1st (Sflex league) for Fournette. That seems like decent value, but I've never been high on Fournette.
Zyphros
Footballguy
It's going to sound contrarian or controversial probably but I'd rank Guice ahead of Fournette. I had them 2 spots apart before the season started and the only thing that has changed for them is the Washington O-line looks legit, and Fournette has proven his injuries are piling up, it's basically a lost season (but that usually means he'll fall too low and be insane value next year). I actually liked Guice more as a prospect than Fournette with his pass catching ability and offense he's going to. The problem with both is they are likely to have a QB change in the next ~1-3 years. I wouldn't fault anyone for preferring one to the other which is why I wouldn't make that deal. I'd want the Guice/1st side especially in superflex.dipandglide said:
I'm beginning to grow leery of anyone coming back from an ACL at full speed in the first year after their surgery. To me that means it's very likely that Guice will struggle or develop compensatory injuries during the 2019 offseason and season.
If (and this is a BIG if) Fournette comes back after the team's bye week and shows that he's healthy and back to his previous level of production, I would have him far ahead of Guice in terms of expected 2019 performance.
While this is only a partial piece of total dynasty value, the point I'm trying to make is that it's very likely that Guice will get cheaper next season than he is now.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Nah, he will get more expensive if anything. That's how it goes the closer to a player gets to coming back.
I just offered Fournette & Gesicki for Ertz & Guice in dynasty PPR. I doubt he bites, but I am tired of Fournette & am ok @ RB w/o him.
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Yes, he will get more expensive as he gets closer to coming back (see: Dalvin Cook this offseason), but I doubt he'll be 100% in 2019 and will likely be dealing with nagging injuries and ineffectiveness (see: Dalvin Cook).
My argument isn't that he'll be cheaper during the offseason and training camp, but rather that his value will fall once the 2019 NFL season is underway and he isn't performing up to his owners' expectations.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Certainly possible. Especially with recent example Dalvin Cook (although I don't chalk that up to injury myself). I doubt Guice gets cheaper though in the offseason. Anyone who took him in 2018 after the injury had 2019 in mind, so his price isn't likely to change for them. If you're banking on him starting slow after that injury and rolling into the season a little gimpy and not 100% then sure he might decrease in value. I think an argument could be made to preferring either one to the other, I just prefer Guice.
I had Guice in my pre-season tier3, just outside the top 23 with 9 other guys so basically a 3rd round startup pick. I can't imagine him falling lower than 5th round? Totally guessing here since 2019 is so far away but if you can get him for a 1st and a prospect I'd do it in a heartbeat.
He's an interesting case. I've seen him make some bad drops, but he's also made some really good plays. Wouldn't fault anyone for selling or buying. Calculated risk on both ends.
What makes you leery? Jordy, Keenan, Peterson all came back strong from ACL injuries. Late season ACLs (like Peterson's) are a little scary due to the likelihood of a slow start, but ACL injuries are becoming less and less worrisome. I much prefer to see a guy get an ACL injury than patella tendon, lisfranc, or achilles.
I'm not worried about it long term, but it feels like it's about 50/50 for skill position players to come back strong the following season.
Who is a recent example who hasn't come back strong? (FWIW, I don't count Dalvin since he's having unrelated hamstring injuries)
They are also common injuries for players that haven't had an ACL injury, so we really don't know if the ACL is to blame. Either way, even if I grant you that one (I really don't think it should count), that's only one example. The last time I recall a player being negatively affected by an ACL injury is Wes Welker like 10 years ago when he had a very late season injury and came back looking a step slower to start the season.
I found a list of 51 ACL tears in 2017. Allen Robinson, Jalen Strong, Devin Smith, Bishop Sankey, Cam Meredith, Darren Sproles are all still struggling/healing/broken.
Watson, Wentz, and Edelman have looked good. Jury is out on Tannehill.
Jalen Strong, Devin Smith, and Bishop Sankey were never good enough to see the field to begin with so we've got no baseline to test against. Allen Robinson is on a shaky offense and now has a groin injury (don't you dare try to pin the groin injury on his ACL
). Additionally, he had an awful season right before his injury, so I'm not sure we can say he's playing worse than before the injury... he's looking very 2016 AR15 to me. Sproles is like 35 or 36 and should retire. Meredith's knee injury was no run-of-the-mill non-contact ACL injury. That was a gruesome hit.So far you have presented no cases that actually alarm me in the least about a player (in this case Guice) coming back from a non-contact ACL injury.
I'm not sure what relevance this has to my current belief that it takes most players more than a year for a player to come back from an ACL injury. There will always be outliers, and I've already pointed out that long-term outlook remains unchanged.
Feel free to ignore the numbers and pretend that talented players are somehow less apt to have long-term recovery periods. My point was, and is, that on the average it takes significantly longer than one year to come back to 100% from an ACL.
Guice may very well be akin to Adrian Peterson, but the odds are that he will perform at a level less than 100% for the entirety of the 2019 season. How much that affects his fantasy production remains to be seen, it may not have any effect at all.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He doesn't have to be like AP. AP was injured very late in the season. What made his comeback miraculous was how short the duration was. Guice tore his ACL on a non-contact play in week 1 of the preseason. He's basically got 13 months to get right.
And I'm not ignoring any numbers. You did not present any numbers. You presented a list of mostly practice squad players. Teams often leave players on the IR if they don't have a spot for them on the active roster. I honestly didn't even know that three of those guys were still in the NFL. In the past 10 years, I can't think of an NFL player of note that didn't return to full strength in 12 months or less.
kutta
Footballguy
Maybe you could present the long list of players who have come back just as strongly one year after an ACL tear?Jalen Strong, Devin Smith, and Bishop Sankey were never good enough to see the field to begin with so we've got no baseline to test against. Allen Robinson is on a shaky offense and now has a groin injury (don't you dare try to pin the groin injury on his ACL
So far you have presented no cases that actually alarm me in the least about a player (in this case Guice) coming back from a non-contact ACL injury.
According to this article, most NFL players only come back at about 80 percent of their previous performance levels.
http://www.startribune.com/athletes-recover-from-acl-injuries-eventually/391891671/
"“We all look at Adrian Peterson” who had a record-setting season one year after an ACL injury, said Dr. Harry Mai, a lead author. “But that is the absolute best-case scenario. This paper shows that after (most ACL injuries), there is a significance decrease in performance and career length.”"
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
FWIW both Jordy and KA really blew up in the 2nd half of the season after their ACL tear. So while they both had good seasons a year after the ACL both of those seasons were built on monster back halfs.
Jordy was 36-415 at the half way point of his year after ACL season, then finished 59-748 the second half of the year.
KA was 40-548 at the half way point, then finished 62-845.
So outside of Peterson even in the "good" examples there still might be something to it taking a little longer. Then of course we have Cook and ARob both looking pretty bad so far this year (Cook of course has the injury too). Edelman looks OK but with a small sample size his YPR is way down and his per game averages are way down compared to his last healthy year despite this probably being the best situation he's had to get fed targets in his career.
I don't feel strongly one way or the other but it might be fair to say we are overlooking the immediate bounce back to ACL tears at least a little bit.
Jordy was 36-415 at the half way point of his year after ACL season, then finished 59-748 the second half of the year.
KA was 40-548 at the half way point, then finished 62-845.
So outside of Peterson even in the "good" examples there still might be something to it taking a little longer. Then of course we have Cook and ARob both looking pretty bad so far this year (Cook of course has the injury too). Edelman looks OK but with a small sample size his YPR is way down and his per game averages are way down compared to his last healthy year despite this probably being the best situation he's had to get fed targets in his career.
I don't feel strongly one way or the other but it might be fair to say we are overlooking the immediate bounce back to ACL tears at least a little bit.
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Yeah, the Keenan thing had me wondering last year, but look at him this year (back on his early 2017 pace, not keeping up his 2018 second half pace). Sometimes we forget that 16 is a really small sample. So it's easy for splits to look wacky.
That whole article is full of fuzzy math. 1.6 seasons, 3.8 seasons... these things are not taking talent into account. Most players wash out in less than 4 seasons because they are not good enough, not because of health reasons. Devin Smith, Sankey, and Strong will go down as "less than 1.6 seasons played after an ACL tear" statistics here, but realistically, was they coming back anyway? (No)
Frank Gore tore both his ACLs like 15 years ago and is still going strong. But no, I don't have the comprehensive list of ACL tears and recovery time and I don't intend to put in that effort. If you guys want to freak out about ACL tears, please go ahead and start a panic! I'll be buying up Guice shares if you succeed. I'm just trying to tell you, it's been a long time since we've seen a slow recovery from a notable player. Off the top of my head, I'm thinking Deuce and Edge back in the early 2000's.
kutta
Footballguy
We'll agree to disagree.
Well, sort of. I do agree that a RB or WR "may" come back just fine from an ACL. But there's risk, and given relatively equal assets, I will downgrade the ACL-returner slightly.
It used to concern me, too, but over just the past few years I've changed my mind. Injuries like Chubb/Meredith still concern me, but injuries like Keenan/Jordy no longer do.
EBF
Footballguy
What's the price tag on Derrick Henry these days? I was lukewarm on his skill set coming out of Alabama, but I think he's better than what we're seeing in TEN. That whole offense is a dumpster fire. I recently offered a 2nd for him in one league and was rejected. I wouldn't pay a first for him since he's too limited and one-dimensional, but I'd be open to getting him cheap. He's a FA after the 2019 season and seems like a guy who could have a Blount/Jacobs role on a good team.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
As an Ertz owner, I'd have to also own Kelce to even consider taking that Ertz/Guice for Gesicki/Fournette deal proposed above. And I'm still a big Fournette believer. Also a huge Guice fan as well however.
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Is he actually a liability in the passing game or is he just not used that way? I always think of Ingram in these cases, where I thought he was a good pass catcher who just wasn't used, but everyone else seemingly assumed he sucked in that phase because he wasn't used. But when given a chance, he flourished (50 rec in 12 games, 83% catch rate). Not saying Henry is the same, just wondering if anyone actually knows.EBF said:
If I could get him for a late 2nd, I'd probably do it. If not possible now, maybe during the draft. Picks always have more value when OTC.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
Henry owner here, traded Collins for him pre-season. Buying for a 2, selling for a 1 sounds about right.EBF said:
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I was just offered Dalvin Cook plus one of the following players (Breida, Golladay, Cooper or J. Gordon) for Kupp in PPR dynasty. I love Kupp, but I think I might have to take this, but go w/Golladay. Thoughts?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Elevencents
Footballguy
Was actively trying to trade Kupp for Coutee looking strictly at future production. Have suddenly pulled back since the trade today. The Texans will have to do something in the offseason, no? Hopkins, Fuller, Thomas and Coutee just seems like too much talent at one position for one team.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He’s a hard guy to put a price on. I tried to turn Thielen into Brown and Lindsay, without luck. That’s the only offer I’ve made for him this year. I don’t own him or I’d be looking to add to him for Hill, Thomas, Evans, etc.RC94 said:
DT is under contract for another season, but it's hard to see Houston paying him $14M even with their cap space. He'll have to renegotiate or he'll be cut. Fuller has another year and they will almost certainly pick up his 5th year option for 2020.
Unfortunately for the Texans, the FA O'line market looks like absolute dog#### next year. They do have an extra 2nd round pick from the Seahawks, so surely will be addressing O'line and corner which are their two biggest needs in the draft.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Any opinions on David Johnson? Hitting 27 years of age this year and seemingly stuck in FF purgatory through the rest of his prime. Looking back he has not had a good rushing game in a long time. Unless his receiving umbers dramatically improve he no longer seems like a top 10 asset at the position.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
In dynasty, I'd rather have all 3 of them over AB. In fact, I own Hill & Evans in 1 league & would not move them for AB
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I just moved Kupp for D. Cook & Golladay in PPRElevencents said:
BearsFan4Life
Footballguy
Not PPR ... but was offered Brown and Mixon for my Bell and Hopkins .. no clue what to do.RC94 said:
To answer your ?, I guess it depends on my lineup and whether or not Brown gives you chance to win the title. If thats the case I may mortgage the future a little bit with a couple wr or rb and wr.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I take that deal. In PPR I probably try to get a little more from them or decline.
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RC94
Footballguy
I understand the risks and questions around Bell, but IMO Hopkins is the best player in that deal and when Bell gets back on the field eventually I like him more than Mixon, so I prefer your side of it. If you want to trade Bell at this point, I can understand that, and going after a player like Mixon is what I would do if you want a RB in return, but I wouldn't also include Hopkins in the deal.
