Zyphros
Footballguy
That's probably near consensus but would it be completely outlandish if someone had a Jones/Mack type ahead of them?
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
I used those blank lines to insinuate that yes, that would be crazy to me
If I had Mixon (I wish I did), I would not trade him for Mack + Jones.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I totally agree I'm just trying to figure out where the "bold ranker" would put those types of guys.I used those blank lines to insinuate that yes, that would be crazy to me
If I had Mixon (I wish I did), I would not trade him for Mack + Jones.
Hah, I'm not sure anyone outside of "Mack owner" would rank them near Mixon.
I try not to put too much stock in the NFL draft, but with the small sample sizes for Mack and Jones, I feel like you'd be crazy to bump them up too much this early. Plus, Jones has already been suspended once and has had some injury issues (injured last year and missed 3/4 preseason games).
EBF
Footballguy
Chubb is faster than Mixon, but Mixon is a better receiver and more agile. The others aren't close for me.
Mixon is kind of like the new Forte or early LeVeon. You're not going to see jaw-dropping plays, but he's just good at everything.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Are PPR win now owners buying on Woods now with Kupp out? I probably overpaid but he's a guy who already had a nice floor and just gained a huge ceiling imo. Underrated talent (who ironically was overrated early on as a blue chip devy).
I dealt Landry + Gabriel for Woods in one league. That's probably the overpay imo, but Landry is not a guy I want to be relying on right now. Other deal was Fuller for Woods + Baldwin in another league. That one feels about right.
I dealt Landry + Gabriel for Woods in one league. That's probably the overpay imo, but Landry is not a guy I want to be relying on right now. Other deal was Fuller for Woods + Baldwin in another league. That one feels about right.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I co-own a team in a 12 PPR dynasty league with @Bruce Hammond. In June, we traded Mixon and TE Everett for Chubb and Cobb. We wanted Cobb to help us out at WR, but I would have traded Mixon for Chubb straight up if necessary. So I definitely don't think there is any issue with Chubb being ranked higher. I do not think I would prefer any of the others to Mixon, though.
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Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Keenan Allen
thoughts going forward? I’ve got a potential blockbuster deal in the works - the holdup, is I’d be receiving Allen in the package deal.
Im not going to get into any of the trade details - I’m just wondering how you guys view Keenan Allen going forward in dynasty?
Is he in the elite tier still? I was never a huge fan, but most people had him in their top 5 dynasty WR’s at the beginning of the season.
How are you feeling now? Are we worried about Phil Rivers falling off soon? Is Keenan really an elite talent? Or was he just a target hog on a team that needed to throw?
How do you rank him among the top WR’s?
Julio, Hopkins, OBJ, Thomas ... Etc
thoughts going forward? I’ve got a potential blockbuster deal in the works - the holdup, is I’d be receiving Allen in the package deal.
Im not going to get into any of the trade details - I’m just wondering how you guys view Keenan Allen going forward in dynasty?
Is he in the elite tier still? I was never a huge fan, but most people had him in their top 5 dynasty WR’s at the beginning of the season.
How are you feeling now? Are we worried about Phil Rivers falling off soon? Is Keenan really an elite talent? Or was he just a target hog on a team that needed to throw?
How do you rank him among the top WR’s?
Julio, Hopkins, OBJ, Thomas ... Etc
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Zyphros
Footballguy
For me I think he's still firmly in the top12. Nobody this year really made their case to jump up ahead of him, so the WR1's are pretty much unchanged. I wouldn't say he's "elite" but he's a #1 WR for a dynasty team still. OBJ, Nuk, Michael Thomas, Hill might be the only ones I'd rank ahead of him in a startup. Which leaves him fighting with Evans, Diggs, Thielen, Adams, JuJu, AB, Julio, Green, for that 2nd tier I'd say. Personally I'd take Allen over most, if not all, of those guys in a startup.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Definitely close in ppr. I tilt toward KJ there. The thing with KJ is he could be another rare three down Gurley DJ type weapon. Chubb doesn't have that ceiling. If Detroit retools offense in 2019 to run thought KJ he could finish rb1.
In non ppr Chubb formsure, though Browns are always cause for long term concern.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
As a Woods owner in multiple leagues, I would insta-reject both of those offers. Woods is the WR 9 on the year, 26, and under contract for three more seasons with an elite offense. He's a multi-year asset and high end WR2.
I have him on a team I'm rebuilding and turning down 1sts easily right now. Hes worth a decent player plus a 1. If taking some random top 6 pick right now for him, I'd just be hoping the rookie was somewhere near as good as RW.
Feel good about your purchase.
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Basically agree with everything Zyphros says here. I don't see any reason for a steep decline from Keenan Allen anytime soon. In fact, watching him play gives me a whole new level of appreciation for him as a player. He's not a burner and he's not physically imposing but he's so quick in and out of his cuts that he gets separation and makes people miss once he has the ball in his hands. He seems to have the skillset that will age well, assuming he doesn't suffer any more major injuries (which is probably the caveat with any player).Zyphros said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I will disagree somewhat here. He's way outside that top tier for me, not even in the discussion of guys like OBJ/Nuk/MT. It would take at least two 1sts to close the gap on those guys for me.Zyphros said:
Regarding people who've made their case to jump ahead of him, Cooks seems like an obvious one. Younger, less injury history, outperforming Allen, and much more clarity to his situation long term. Adams is similar, I would easily take him over KA. I would probably prefer Evans, Thielen as well, so then he starts next in that conversation with JuJu/AB for me.
I would take him ahead of Julio/Green/Diggs.
kutta
Footballguy
Nothing has changed for me. He's always been quite similar to Hopkins in fantasy points per target. Like almost exactly the same... I think they were both at 1.67 points per target. The different between them is that Keenan's targets have decreased as Rivers' attempts have decreased this season. And historically Keenan's never gotten the garbage time stats which have propped up Hopkins previous seasons, thus inflated people's future expectations.
Waldman touches on this in his top 10 feature this week. https://twitter.com/MattWaldman/status/1061846416421777409bumpman said:
It boils down to the fact that fantasy owners conflate volume with talent. There are probably still a few people who think Hyde is a good pass catcher due to the fact he caught 59 passes last year, but he was actually awful in the passing game according to PFF stats in addition to an extremely high drop rate. On the other end of the spectrum, everyone thought Ingram was a liability in the passing game until he got his shot and proved to be a plus receiver.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Your garbage time theory has been disproved. Hopkins is scoring more points this season, despite literally* zero garbage time. And how can those expectations have been inflated when he's delivering on them?
Edit: Correction: Almost literally. They were down big to the Pats.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think he’s very good, not elite. I think being Rivers’ top receiver will inflate production some.
I’m in no rush to acquire him and disagree with the notion that he’s as valuable as he was coming into the season. I haven’t put rankings together in quite some time, but off the top of my head, I think WR10-12 feels about right.
skinfanjon
Footballguy
For context, I just dealt Kirk, 1st, and 2nd for Keenan Allen in a league where I'm a top contender. Those picks will likely be 8-12 of their rounds.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The Iguana
Footballguy
Anyone have a resource that has player lists for dynasty values? I thought FBG had semi regularly updated dynasty rankings but either they never existed, have gone away, or my search skills are failing me. I play in an auction keeper league and there's some guys available, either for trade or on waivers with various keeper salaries and I'm working on weighing values of guys both for this year as I make a playoff run and for next year's consideration. Just want to see some outside resources to compare my thoughts to others.
The Iguana
Footballguy
Actually just found what I wanted in an article posted in the last week. Should have looked again before posting.
The Iguana
Footballguy
Ok... Thoughts from here... This year + next year combined value...
Rashaad Penny, $14
vs
Royce Freeman $21
deep keeper/auction format. Not PPR. Which one would you pick?
Rashaad Penny, $14
vs
Royce Freeman $21
deep keeper/auction format. Not PPR. Which one would you pick?
I ran the numbers fairly extensively in another thread a year ago. Garbage time absolutely leads to a higher fantasy points per target. As for 2018, it is out of line for his typical points per target. I would not expect him to continue at this rate. They are roughly the same as Allen's second half splits from last year. All good things come to an end.
FP/T is not a useful tool for small samples such as Lockett's 2018, especially when we can all see they'll be thrown off by a high or low number of TDs. But I do think it is a useful tool when you've got a multi-year starter and you are looking into the future (dynasty) since situations can and do change.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Have you watched much Hopkins this year? It’s not a fluke. He finally has a quality QB throwing him the ball and other weapons around him. The quality of his targets improved. Now that his situation is as good Allen’s, his production is much better. Because he’s a much better football player.
What is he supposedly better at? The main difference between them the past 2 years is TDs. As we've seen with Julio, it takes more than talent to get TDs. It often comes down to situation which is out of their control.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hands, body control, catch radius, and speed. Hopkins is one of the best redzone receivers in the league - it’s not an accident that he’s scoring more TDs.
(It’s also not an accident that Julio is more productive between then 20s than in the redzone, as great as he is. He’s better than prime Dez, but not in the redzone.)
The theory that was debunked was not that garbage time leads to production. The theory that was debunked was that garbage time propped up Hopkins’ numbers, that somehow catching passes from Osweiler (and Savage and Hoyer and Mallett and Yates and so on) was inflating his production, that he’d be less productive when his QB and offense and team improved. That theory fell on its face and never made any sense.
The theory that was debunked was that Hopkins was "QB proof" as we saw with 2016.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I respect you and apologize if my sarcasm comes off as biting. I really don’t understand doubling down here, seeing what Hopkins is doing with a capable QB. (Finally!) But if things fall apart and Hopkins ends up being less productive with Watson - I’ll be back for crow.
It's all good. I've just watched a lot of Hopkins and always thought he was overrated due to volume, garbage time, and the discrediting of the surprising QB play he got from Fitzpatrick and Hoyer. It was funny to me that being saddled with QBs who temporarily over-performed led to the "QB proof" label that came crashing down with Brock.
I disagree that Hopkins is actually better at all the aspects you listed. They both have very low drops and I don't recall Hopkins' reception perception numbers, but I know Allen excelled at contested catches (I assume Hopkins did, too). Neither of them is a burner, but Allen's recorded 40 time came after rehabbing from an MCL injury. I can't speak to catch radius, but they are similarly sized.
Either way, we've got probably 8 more years to watch these guys play. It'll be interesting to see how their careers end up. To me they are very similar players with greatly different fantasy prices at the moment.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t own him, unfortunately, and for whatever reason, I haven’t gone out of my way to target him, but I also like him.
My hunch is that a late 1st would get it done—and I’d be okay paying that, assuming I’m extremely confident the pick will be late.
Tau837
Footballguy
FWIW, PFF receiving grades:FF Ninja said:
Allen:
- 2018: 83.6
- 2017: 89.7
- 2016: 85.3 (1 game)
- 2015: 78.8
- 2014: 74.9
- 2013: 86.4
- 2018: 90.9
- 2017: 90.3
- 2016: 76.8
- 2015: 90.7
- 2014: 83.6
- 2013: 69.0
Some career regular season statistics for consideration:
Allen (all data from PFF except red zone data, which is from PFR):
- 63 games
- 534 targets
- 384 receptions = 71.9% catch percentage
- 4860 receiving yards = 12.7 yards per reception and 77.1 yards per game
- 26 receiving TDs = 4.9% TD percentage
- 15 red zone TDs on 64 red zone targets
- 1817 YAC = 4.7 YAC per reception
- 250 first downs = 46.8% first down percentage
- 26 drops = 4.9% drop percentage
- 5 fumbles
- 16 penalties drawn
- 88 games
- 817 targets
- 493 receptions = 60.3% catch percentage
- 6960 receiving yards = 14.1 yards per reception and 79.1 yards per game
- 44 receiving TDs = 5.4% TD percentage
- 22 red zone targets on 88 red zone targets
- 1679 YAC = 3.4 YAC per reception
- 358 first downs = 43.8% first down percentage
- 20 drops = 2.4% drop percentage
- 6 fumbles
- 28 penalties drawn
- Hopkins has better hands - half the drop rate despite having poorer QB play. (Whether or not Fitz/Hoyer QB play was underrated, there is no question that Allen has had better QB play.)
- Hopkins runs deeper routes - higher ypr with less YAC/rec. That combined with poorer QB play could explain the gap in catch percentage.
- They seem to be about the same in the red zone - about 1 RZ target per game and about a 25% conversion rate.
- Hopkins seems like a stronger deep threat - he has twice as many TDs from outside the red zone, in addition to his higher ypr.
Allen:
- 2018: 50% on 10 targets
- 2017: 41.7% on 24 targets
- 2018: 54.8% on 31 targets
- 2017: 44.2% on 52 targets
Altogether, Hopkins seems to be clearly better, even though I also think highly of Allen.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Thanks for this. Good stuff.
Very minor quibble, but I don't think the numbers suggest that the two are equals in the redzone. If we grant that Allen is seeing better targets, we'd expect him to have a higher conversion rate than Hopkins.
(I'm going to use inside the 10. Not to move the goalposts, but that's typically what I take people to mean when talking about a red zone threat--a guy you target in the end zone. )
Now that Hopkins is playing with a competent QB (2018):
Hopkins
- 37.5% target share
- 12 targets
- 6 receptions
- 3 TDs
- 14.3% target share
- 3 targets
- 1 receptions
- 0 TDs
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joey
Footballguy
@Just Win Baby @Concept Coop @FF Ninja
your Hopkins/allen back and forth is what keeps the Shark Pool great, so I just wanted to say THANKS and keep it up!
your Hopkins/allen back and forth is what keeps the Shark Pool great, so I just wanted to say THANKS and keep it up!
Thanks, I don't have PFF although I pull data from their free stuff whenever I can. His stats so far this season have been impressive, just as Allen's regression from last season have been disappointing. I still think the softer coverage during garbage time assisted Hopkins in the past, although I'd be curious to know the formula for PFF grades.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I think for now, he's a top15 WR. With what looks like a strong WR class, plus a lot of the 2018 rookies making their names known, I don't see him lasting as a top15 guy for very much longer. Is he pretty good? Yes he is, but he isn't a pillar of a dynasty team. He's a WR2 for fantasy purposes with a more than decent chance IMO for him to move down that list. I'd sell him and wouldn't be looking to buy personally. I count 10 sure fire WR's I'd take ahead of him in a startup with a possible 3-5 more. Add in 3-5 more rookies coming in and he's outside the top20 all of a sudden.
But to answer your question I'd say his value is right around a mid 1st. I wouldn't pay it since I see him declining when a new crop comes to the NFL, but I'm sure someone would.
DirtyCashDylan
Footballguy
Randall Cobb? Where's he going next year? He's 28 and his contract is up and he isn't the type of WR that ages well imo.
As a Diggs owner, I’ve been disappointed with what he’s given me this last year but I wouldn’t take a mid 1st for him. I’d need a top 3-4 pick because while he is injury prone, if he ever figures out how to take care of his body, he will be an animal year round.
Cobb is so interesting because his decline seems to have more to do with the Packers offense changing around him and him getting left out. He was expected to be the 1 in the year Jordy went down and his inability to do so seems to have lost him the trust of Rodgers. Add in injuries this year and you have a guy worth a 3rd at best right now. I disagree about him not being the type to age well. He’s a slot guy who made his hay on finesse rather than size, he is exactly the type who is supposed to age well but has inexplicably been left farther and farther behind due to injury, trust, and an ineffective offense (the Pack should be doing so much more with Rodgers as QB than they have this year). He’s a hold for me just because his value is low and I want to see where he goes but I don’t think I would be buying. If he can’t come back healthy to GB this year and carve out a role with no competition for the #2 spot other than MVD, I can’t see him going somewhere else and getting it done.
Zyphros
Footballguy
It seems we're not far off in where we might value Diggs so I'm ok with it be a top end first as well. I think that's more the sellers market than the buyers though. I just view him more pessimistically than probably most do so I might be a bit conservative with that "mid 1st".
I find your Cobb response hilarious because that's basically the route that I see Diggs going if his constant health problems don't improve. Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't there a ton of injury questions about him coming into the league? I think Diggs is more talented so Cobb level production might be more of a floor, but you can literally replace "Cobb" with "Diggs" throughout that paragraph and it be the reality of his situation. They're roughly the same player to me, obviously one is older than the other, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if their careers look rather similar.
Andrew74
Footballguy
How do you guys value T Hill? I have an aging elite WR Corp and was hoping to get younger. I think he could easily be a top 5-7 WR in my 0.5PPR
As a data point, he was offered to me for Julio, Chubb and a 2nd (prob mid round). Doesn’t seem like a bad price though I am loathe to move Chubb as I think he’s going to be a stud. I’d rather move Cook than Chubb in that deal.
As a data point, he was offered to me for Julio, Chubb and a 2nd (prob mid round). Doesn’t seem like a bad price though I am loathe to move Chubb as I think he’s going to be a stud. I’d rather move Cook than Chubb in that deal.
joey
Footballguy
If you have other top RBs besides Chubb to start, I think that’s exactly the kind of price you have to pay for Hill. He IS already top 5 in 0.5 PPR.
Andrew74
Footballguy
Yeah, he’s WR4 currently on a ppg basis. I love Julio but to be able to shave 5 years for similar to better production would be great. Plus Mahomes’ age.
I countered with Cook and he said he’d do it. I like Chubb more than Cook.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I like Hill but I'm not expecting Mahomes to throw for 5000 yards and 55 TDs every year. Even if he remains an elite QB there is a lot of room for regression in that offense.
Andrew74
Footballguy
I agree with that but I believe Hill can still be top 5-7 even if Mahomes levels off. He was WR7 in my 0.5PPR last year with Smith (granted it was a great year for Smith).
With WR scoring really down the last two years, I’m thinking it’s a good play to try and land one that could be one of a few elite FF difference makers.
