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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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52 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

What is the going rate for Edelman?

Early 2nd would be my best guess. 31 years old but was the #3 WR in ppr leagues the second half of the year.

Edited by fruity pebbles

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Regarding Edelman.......I can pretty easily see him with a couple more years of really good production since his production is more tied to Brady than his own abilities.  Say you can get him for pick 12.  What are the chances pick 12 is a "hit"?  Say maybe 25%?  So if you draft a good player at 12 he will be good for what, maybe 8 years?

A guy like Edelman in this situation would just depend on my roster.  If I am competing and could use a WR, no brainer for me, I will take 2 years of Edelman.

If my team blows, it would make sense to ideally get a future 1st for him, but if the best I could get is pick 12 then I would jump on that and take that 25% chance. 

Window of opportunity. 

Edited by ghostguy123

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Oh, and Meno, when you asked before how I would define a stud, I don't have many generalizations because each and every player should be uniquely viewed and evaluated, but take the comparison of Dez and Edelman.  I am confident Dez could do well in any situation.  I am only confident in Edelman in his current situation. 

So now let's say Dez is worth pick 2 and Edelman is worth pick 12.

If you are competing so you prefer Dez and pick 12?  Or Edelman and pick 2? 

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.  The next couple years I can easily see Edelman score with Dez, and the rookie RB at 2 score well while pick 12 is likely a bust. 

Might just depend on my needs.

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Perhaps this is crazy talk, but I figured I'd bring it up- what if Gronk becomes a Belichick casualty? Particulalry if they win a SB without him.

Bill Simmons pontificated that he could be tradeable and provides the long list of Pats players dropped when they still appeared to be in their prime.

For arguments sake just how far down the dynasty rankings does a non-Pat Gronk fall?

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8 hours ago, bombjack said:

Perhaps this is crazy talk, but I figured I'd bring it up- what if Gronk becomes a Belichick casualty? Particulalry if they win a SB without him.

Bill Simmons pontificated that he could be tradeable and provides the long list of Pats players dropped when they still appeared to be in their prime.

For arguments sake just how far down the dynasty rankings does a non-Pat Gronk fall?

Depends where he goes obviously.  

But his value has taken a big hit from a year ago regardless of where he is playing

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8 hours ago, bombjack said:

Perhaps this is crazy talk, but I figured I'd bring it up- what if Gronk becomes a Belichick casualty? Particulalry if they win a SB without him.

Bill Simmons pontificated that he could be tradeable and provides the long list of Pats players dropped when they still appeared to be in their prime.

For arguments sake just how far down the dynasty rankings does a non-Pat Gronk fall?

He'll be in New England atleast one more year with the way his contract numbers are set up. They wouldnt gain much cutting him until 2018 at the earliest.

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8 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Depends where he goes obviously.  

But his value has taken a big hit from a year ago regardless of where he is playing

Agreed, but assuming his new team has a competent HC/OC/QB, the new team isn't much of a concern.   

Virtually every team would want Gronk, but who would be most likely to pay?  The worst likely scenario imo is San Fran.  Shanny should be decent enough but the rest is troubling.  The Rams could use him for sure, which might be interesting and  he'd enjoy LA.  Miami seems another possibility.  

He's still the top TE but maybe not where he was.

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12 minutes ago, fruity pebbles said:

He'll be in New England atleast one more year with the way his contract numbers are set up. They wouldnt gain much cutting him until 2018 at the earliest.

Would the numbers work in a trade? 

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Pump the brakes here. Pats are built to win now, gronk is a difference maker. Speculation train getting off the tracks.

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11 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Say you can get him for pick 12.  What are the chances pick 12 is a "hit"?  Say maybe 25%?  So if you draft a good player at 12 he will be good for what, maybe 8 years?

Pretty much agree with everything you wrote, but this warrants a little more attention imo.  Let's look at players taken between 11-14 in the last 5 drafts and see if the 25% holds. (Just going off my idp league which drafts in May, yours may vary)

16 - Boyd, Wentz, Henry, Jack

15 - Yeldon, Abdullah, Winston, Mariota 

14 - Bortles, ASJ, AR15, Hyde

13 - bell, Eifert, j hunter, Lattimore

12 - Fleener, s hill, pead, Kuechley

How many of those players do you prefer Edelman to over the next 5 years?

As a contender?   2 or 3 for sure

As a rebuild?  Maybe 9 or 10

IOW, in a rebuild you trade Edelman for the 12 - you're about 50% likely to get a good player and you have a chance to get a stud.  If you're contending?  Nope

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8 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Pump the brakes here. Pats are built to win now, gronk is a difference maker. Speculation train getting off the tracks.

:shrug: it's unlikely but this is BB. So who knows?  It's just idle speculation. 

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5 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

Pretty much agree with everything you wrote, but this warrants a little more attention imo.  Let's look at players taken between 11-14 in the last 5 drafts and see if the 25% holds. (Just going off my idp league which drafts in May, yours may vary)

16 - Boyd, Wentz, Henry, Jack

15 - Yeldon, Abdullah, Winston, Mariota 

14 - Bortles, ASJ, AR15, Hyde

13 - bell, Eifert, j hunter, Lattimore

12 - Fleener, s hill, pead, Kuechley

How many of those players do you prefer Edelman to over the next 5 years?

As a contender?   2 or 3 for sure

As a rebuild?  Maybe 9 or 10

IOW, in a rebuild you trade Edelman for the 12 - you're about 50% likely to get a good player and you have a chance to get a stud.  If you're contending?  Nope

??? None of those players went anywhere near you stated in any of my leagues.

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14 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Pump the brakes here. Pats are built to win now, gronk is a difference maker. Speculation train getting off the tracks.

 

:goodposting:

Brady is not going to let them trade Gronk.

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8 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

??? None of those players went anywhere near you stated in any of my leagues.

We must play in very different leagues. 

Granted, in that league receivers get a bump due to lineups (which bumps Edelman there too), so in others RBs might go higher. but if none went near there, that's surprising. 

Bell probably went higher in most leagues, especially if you drafted later.  The 10 taken before him - Austin, hopkins, Patterson, woods, ball, Keenan, gio, Wheaton, Lacy, Arthur brown (ouch, not me).  Obviously that list isn't so good.  

Edited by FUBAR

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6 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

We must play in very different leagues. 

Granted, in that league receivers get a bump due to lineups (which bumps Edelman there too), so in others RBs might go higher. but if none went near there, that's surprising. 

I mostly just looked at the guys like Henry, Bell, abdulah, and Hyde.  All went much higher than pick 11 in every draft I saw.

12 team PPR.  NO IDP

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1 minute ago, ghostguy123 said:

I mostly just looked at the guys like Henry, Bell, abdulah, and Hyde.  All went much higher than pick 11 in every draft I saw.

12 team PPR.  NO IDP

Hunter Henry, not Derrick. 

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14 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Early 2nd would be my best guess. 31 years old but was the #3 WR in ppr leagues the second half of the year.

How much of that was due to Gronk being out and Bennett playing through injury? I mean, he had 97 targets in the last 8 games. That's not repeatable. Especially with a healthy surrounding cast.

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

How much of that was due to Gronk being out and Bennett playing through injury? I mean, he had 97 targets in the last 8 games. That's not repeatable. Especially with a healthy surrounding cast.

He has been good regardless of who has or hasnt been injured.

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1 minute ago, ghostguy123 said:

He has been good regardless of who has or hasnt been injured.

Has he? He started the season with 2 nice PPR games (or 2 mediocre games in 0PPR) while Gronk was barely playing any snaps, but even with those 2 games, his first half total were only 41/358/1. Those are bad numbers even if you play PPR.

His numbers were awesome in 2015, but 2013 and 2014 were merely decent - averaged out to ~1000/5. Lots of receptions, so again if you play PPR his fantasy numbers are better than real life numbers, which are more akin to Willie Snead.

In 0PPR I would maybe give up a 3rd for him. In 1PPR I'd say a mid-2nd. At 31, he's probably got 1-2 seasons left before his abilities decrease. But with Brady turning 40 and Gronk returning healthy and maybe Mitchell stepping up, he's pretty risky even in PPR.

Don't get me wrong, he's been a gritty player with great hands who served a nice niche role in that offense. I just don't see much dynasty value left in the tank.

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22 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Has he? He started the season with 2 nice PPR games (or 2 mediocre games in 0PPR) while Gronk was barely playing any snaps, but even with those 2 games, his first half total were only 41/358/1. Those are bad numbers even if you play PPR.

His numbers were awesome in 2015, but 2013 and 2014 were merely decent - averaged out to ~1000/5. Lots of receptions, so again if you play PPR his fantasy numbers are better than real life numbers, which are more akin to Willie Snead.

In 0PPR I would maybe give up a 3rd for him. In 1PPR I'd say a mid-2nd. At 31, he's probably got 1-2 seasons left before his abilities decrease. But with Brady turning 40 and Gronk returning healthy and maybe Mitchell stepping up, he's pretty risky even in PPR.

Don't get me wrong, he's been a gritty player with great hands who served a nice niche role in that offense. I just don't see much dynasty value left in the tank.

How do you come up with Gronk being 31?  I just googled him and it says he is 27, will be 28 when the next season starts.

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1 minute ago, Warhogs said:

How do you come up with Gronk being 31?  I just googled him and it says he is 27, will be 28 when the next season starts.

Edelman

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Cj Anderson and Thomas Rawls- late 1st sound about right? I'm a seller, so I may be overvaluing here. I have rb depth and like the fact that Rbs are getting all the attention at the top. I want WRs in the mid-late 1 range, but I'm not sure anyone gives up an early pick in this draft for those guys.

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12 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Cj Anderson and Thomas Rawls- late 1st sound about right? I'm a seller, so I may be overvaluing here. I have rb depth and like the fact that Rbs are getting all the attention at the top. I want WRs in the mid-late 1 range, but I'm not sure anyone gives up an early pick in this draft for those guys.

I would think that sounds about right for a beginning point.

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Where has Edelman finished up in points per game the past 3-4 seasons?  anyone have that info anywhere?

Edited by ghostguy123

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25 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Cj Anderson and Thomas Rawls- late 1st sound about right? I'm a seller, so I may be overvaluing here. I have rb depth and like the fact that Rbs are getting all the attention at the top. I want WRs in the mid-late 1 range, but I'm not sure anyone gives up an early pick in this draft for those guys.

You might get a late first but it seems unlikely.  I think I'd go early 2nd in non idp for rawls based on upside, but he sure hasn't shown an ability to consistently perform.  

I probably underrate CJA. Most people probably do

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19 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Where has Edelman finished up in points per game the past 3-4 seasons?  anyone have that info anywhere?

Omitting week 17, PPR FPPG:

2014: 16th

2015: 7th

2016- 23rd

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Cj Anderson and Thomas Rawls- late 1st sound about right? I'm a seller, so I may be overvaluing here. I have rb depth and like the fact that Rbs are getting all the attention at the top. I want WRs in the mid-late 1 range, but I'm not sure anyone gives up an early pick in this draft for those guys.

I would not give up an early pick for either of them, and between the two I like Rawls more. But Anderson was dealt in a league of mine a few days ago and got back Jeremy Hill, 2.10 and Taj Sharpe. I'd have preferred the other side myself.

Out of the leagues I'm in the only RB I can recall that has been involved in a one for one trade netting back a 2017#1 was Abdullah, and I think he got back pick 8 or 9

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4 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I would not give up an early pick for either of them, and between the two I like Rawls more. But Anderson was dealt in a league of mine a few days ago and got back Jeremy Hill, 2.10 and Taj Sharpe. I'd have preferred the other side myself.

Out of the leagues I'm in the only RB I can recall that has been involved in a one for one trade netting back a 2017#1 was Abdullah, and I think he got back pick 8 or 9

lol I have him (Abdullah)in that league too, was thinking maybe the same range. 

Edited by Snorkelson

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5 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I would not give up an early pick for either of them, and between the two I like Rawls more. But Anderson was dealt in a league of mine a few days ago and got back Jeremy Hill, 2.10 and Taj Sharpe. I'd have preferred the other side myself.

Out of the leagues I'm in the only RB I can recall that has been involved in a one for one trade netting back a 2017#1 was Abdullah, and I think he got back pick 8 or 9

That's a nice haul for CJA. way more than I'd give. 

Fwiw, CJA was just taken in the 4th and rawls in the 5th in a 16 team redraft mock. I'd suspect they're worth less in dynasty.

Edited by FUBAR

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11 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Omitting week 17, PPR FPPG:

2014: 16th

2015: 7th

2016- 23rd

 

 

I would tend to think 2-3 more years of that is well worth pick 12 if you could use some WR help to compete

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16 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

lol I have him in that league too, was thinking maybe the same range. 

Polk High?

Edited by menobrown

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2 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would tend to think 2-3 more years of that is well worth pick 12 if you could use some WR help to compete

If you think he will continue for even the 2 year mark I would agree but I don't feel comfortable projecting him past 2017 when his contract ends which would be my hesitation. I'm sure NE would like to retain him, I'm sure Edelman would like to maximize his next and likely last contract and that may not happen in NE, thought I'd guess if it's remotely close he remains. I have no strong feeling one way or the other how it works out but it would be my primary concern about projecting his usefulness over next 2-3 years. Not his or Brady's age or other weapons.

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I am beyond confident that barring something crazy, Edelman will stay in NE.

No other team is going to give him some crazy deal that NE couldn't match.  Why would they?  He is a system guy with success tied to Brady.

And as for the 2-3 years, I am very confident he will have 2 more good years.  If he had 3 or more that would just be a bonus.  Again, we are talking about pick 12 which is likely a bust and wasted roster spot on a team, with slight chance of landing a really good player.  If you trade pick 12 for an Edelman clone every year, you are going to stay good forever. 

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22 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I am beyond confident that barring something crazy, Edelman will stay in NE.

No other team is going to give him some crazy deal that NE couldn't match.  Why would they?  He is a system guy with success tied to Brady.

And as for the 2-3 years, I am very confident he will have 2 more good years.  If he had 3 or more that would just be a bonus.  Again, we are talking about pick 12 which is likely a bust and wasted roster spot on a team, with slight chance of landing a really good player.  If you trade pick 12 for an Edelman clone every year, you are going to stay good forever. 

:yes:  that's been my MO, where it's worked I've been in the playoffs every year since the league started, in 2003. 

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Cj Anderson and Thomas Rawls- late 1st sound about right? I'm a seller, so I may be overvaluing here. I have rb depth and like the fact that Rbs are getting all the attention at the top. I want WRs in the mid-late 1 range, but I'm not sure anyone gives up an early pick in this draft for those guys.

I have the 1.10 in a 14 team nonPPR. I wouldnt dismiss Rawls for the 10 right off the bat but i also wouldnt make the deal until I saw what happened in Seattle after FA and the draft.

 

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Davante Adams pick value? My primary FFPC leaguemates are all over the board on him. I see a 4th year WR who has improved each year and cut his drop % in half last year versus previous. He's also just turned 24 in December.

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

I would tend to think 2-3 more years of that is well worth pick 12 if you could use some WR help to compete

As I mentioned, he's 31 and Brady is 40. There was a FBG article that showed 32 is the age where WRs start to decline, so even if Brady somehow miraculously maintains his play for 2-3 more years, it seems unlikely Edelman will maintain his play.

I'm not saying he's not still worth 1.12, but I can see both sides.

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2 minutes ago, pizzatyme said:

Davante Adams pick value? My primary FFPC leaguemates are all over the board on him. I see a 4th year WR who has improved each year and cut his drop % in half last year versus previous. He's also just turned 24 in December.

best guess for me is 1.8 - 1.10 but I am not his biggest fan. If I needed a wr that is about what I'd pay

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5 minutes ago, pizzatyme said:

Davante Adams pick value? My primary FFPC leaguemates are all over the board on him. I see a 4th year WR who has improved each year and cut his drop % in half last year versus previous. He's also just turned 24 in December.

I am a Packer fan so maybe that skews things? I would pay up to about 1.05 but would be happy getting him for a few picks lower if I could.

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3 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

best guess for me is 1.8 - 1.10 but I am not his biggest fan. If I needed a wr that is about what I'd pay

Seems right. I like him as my WR4, so no need to sell him on a contender for that.

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10 minutes ago, pizzatyme said:

Davante Adams pick value? My primary FFPC leaguemates are all over the board on him. I see a 4th year WR who has improved each year and cut his drop % in half last year versus previous. He's also just turned 24 in December.

Don't think I would let him go for less than a mid-late first. Agree with your assessment. I guess possible risks include how much the wealth is spread in GB, and just how reliant he is on Rodgers to produce - he's a FA after 17 I believe.

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1 hour ago, bombjack said:

Don't think I would let him go for less than a mid-late first. Agree with your assessment. I guess possible risks include how much the wealth is spread in GB, and just how reliant he is on Rodgers to produce - he's a FA after 17 I believe.

I have seen him go for pick 1.8, Doctson

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4 hours ago, FUBAR said:

You might get a late first but it seems unlikely.  I think I'd go early 2nd in non idp for rawls based on upside, but he sure hasn't shown an ability to consistently perform.  

I probably underrate CJA. Most people probably do

I should add that this might depend on your starting requirements.  In recent years I have had a lot of leagues moving toward needing to start less RB and more flex spots.  In a league requiring only 1 starting RB you might be hard pressed to get a round 1 pick.  Leagues requiring to start minimum of 2 RB and I think you are looking at potentially a late round 1 pick.

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2 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

I am beyond confident that barring something crazy, Edelman will stay in NE.

No other team is going to give him some crazy deal that NE couldn't match.  Why would they?  He is a system guy with success tied to Brady.

 

He almost signed with Houston when he was a FA 2 (?) years ago, but Brady put his foot down and insisted that NE retain him.

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1 hour ago, bombjack said:

Don't think I would let him go for less than a mid-late first. Agree with your assessment. I guess possible risks include how much the wealth is spread in GB, and just how reliant he is on Rodgers to produce - he's a FA after 17 I believe.

This would be my concern. After his crappy 2nd year and TD dependent 3rd year, he's basically a 1 year rental in my eyes. I fear he turns into a JAG if the Packers don't re-sign him (similar to how James Jones did).

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38 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

This would be my concern. After his crappy 2nd year and TD dependent 3rd year, he's basically a 1 year rental in my eyes. I fear he turns into a JAG if the Packers don't re-sign him (similar to how James Jones did).

I could certainly be wrong but I would be extremely surprised if Adams isn't resigned.  I believe Jordy is 31 and Cobb is over paid.  I think after next year Adams becomes a priority signing even if it means letting Cobb go.  Let me add that in 2018 Nelson has a cap number of 12,550,000 and releasing him would create a cap savings of $10,250,000 with dead money of 2,300,000. Cobb has a cap number of 12,750,000 and releasing him would save 9,500,000 with dead money of 3,250,000.  Either one or both could be approached to either renegotiate or be cut as I think the younger Adams becomes priority.

Edited by Warhogs
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Just now, Warhogs said:

I could certainly be wrong but I would be extremely surprised if Adams isn't resigned.  I believe Jordy is 31 and Cobb is over paid.  I think after next year Adams becomes a priority signing even if it means letting Cobb go.  

It all depends on what he's asking and if GB actually values him. If they think he's a JAG that Rodgers makes look good then they'd rather have the compensatory pick than pay him even just moderate WR money. Ted Thompson is pretty frugal.

I agree that Cobb is overpaid and Jordy will be old next year, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't rather promote someone from within rather than overpaying to retain a free agent. James Jones is a great example - they let him walk, he signed a nice, (relatively) big contract with Oakland, he was mediocre at best, they cut him the next year, he signed on the cheap with GB and looked good again. Ted Thompson knows Rodgers makes WRs, not the other way around. If Adams stays or goes will greatly depend on his market value because GB isn't getting into a bidding war over him. Personally, I think there's a sub-50% chance he's back on the Packers in 2018.

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13 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It all depends on what he's asking and if GB actually values him. If they think he's a JAG that Rodgers makes look good then they'd rather have the compensatory pick than pay him even just moderate WR money. Ted Thompson is pretty frugal.

I agree that Cobb is overpaid and Jordy will be old next year, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't rather promote someone from within rather than overpaying to retain a free agent. James Jones is a great example - they let him walk, he signed a nice, (relatively) big contract with Oakland, he was mediocre at best, they cut him the next year, he signed on the cheap with GB and looked good again. Ted Thompson knows Rodgers makes WRs, not the other way around. If Adams stays or goes will greatly depend on his market value because GB isn't getting into a bidding war over him. Personally, I think there's a sub-50% chance he's back on the Packers in 2018.

How many other WRs are getting 12 TDs tossed to them from Rodgers? Seems like he likes him. And QBs make the WR most of the time. Hopkins this year and AB without Ben come to mind.

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