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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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24 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Courtland Sutton's drops are concerning. Can he be traded away for a first? 

Can't see how with that #### show at QB.

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8 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Courtland Sutton's drops are concerning. Can he be traded away for a first? 

You shouldn't have any problem getting a late first. You might get a mid to late first depending on the enthusiasm of the other party.

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

McCaffrey has to be in the top half of the first round now.  Highest scoring non QB this year and only 22.

For sure.  Barkley/Gurley/Elliott/CMC/Kamara (not necessarily in that order) will be the top 5 picks in almost all drafts next year.

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3 hours ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

For sure.  Barkley/Gurley/Elliott/CMC/Kamara (not necessarily in that order) will be the top 5 picks in almost all drafts next year.

Would be shocked if first 5 picks in a dynasty draft are all RB's. OBJ, Hopkins, and M Thomas are all young enough to get picked early in first.

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On 12/21/2018 at 4:51 PM, BearsFan4Life said:

14 team dynasty..no ppr

Spencer Ware....worth holding as a FA for next year or dump him for either..

Tim Patrick 

Tyrell Williams

Blake Jarwin

Duke Johnson Jr.

Rod Smith

Chris Warren III

Malcolm Brown

I'd rather have him in the event he stays in KC over any of these names. 

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On 12/21/2018 at 12:59 PM, whiskey7 said:

Any thoughts on Gus Edwards and/or Josh Adams at this point?

 

ETA: jacked the following from Zyphros thread (hope that is ok) as a starter...

"Tier 5 - (24) Royce Freeman, (25) Matt Breida, (26) Josh Adams, (27) Devonte Freeman, (28) Kenyan Drake, (29) Tarik Cohen, (30) Mark Ingram, (31) TJ Yeldon

Tier 6 - (32) Chris Carson, (33) D'Onte Foreman, (34) Jordan Howard, (35) Derrick Henry, (36) Jay Ajayi

Tier 7 - (37) Lamar Miller, (38) James White, (39) Dion Lewis, (40) Duke Johnson, (41) LeSean McCoy, (42) Austin Ekeler, (43) Nyheim Hines, (44) Giovanni Bernard

Tier 8 - (45) Isaiah Crowell, (46) Ronald Jones, (47) Chris Warren III, (48) Mike Boone, (49) Ito Smith, (50) Elijah McGuire, (51) Alex Collins, (52) Gus Edwards"

I like Adams a little but Philly is committed to RBBC, it would seem. And apparently they don't like throwing to Adams, although I haven't heard or seen if this is because he has bad hands or not. 

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On 12/21/2018 at 2:59 PM, whiskey7 said:

Any thoughts on Gus Edwards and/or Josh Adams at this point?

 

ETA: jacked the following from Zyphros thread (hope that is ok) as a starter...

"Tier 5 - (24) Royce Freeman, (25) Matt Breida, (26) Josh Adams, (27) Devonte Freeman, (28) Kenyan Drake, (29) Tarik Cohen, (30) Mark Ingram, (31) TJ Yeldon

Tier 6 - (32) Chris Carson, (33) D'Onte Foreman, (34) Jordan Howard, (35) Derrick Henry, (36) Jay Ajayi

Tier 7 - (37) Lamar Miller, (38) James White, (39) Dion Lewis, (40) Duke Johnson, (41) LeSean McCoy, (42) Austin Ekeler, (43) Nyheim Hines, (44) Giovanni Bernard

Tier 8 - (45) Isaiah Crowell, (46) Ronald Jones, (47) Chris Warren III, (48) Mike Boone, (49) Ito Smith, (50) Elijah McGuire, (51) Alex Collins, (52) Gus Edwards"

I don't see anything that would warrant such a discrepancy in their rankings. Both were undrafted. Adams has been outsnapped by Sproles two out of the past three weeks and Edwards has been outsnapped by Dixon two out of the past three weeks. Both guys are nothing more than flyers for 2019. I'd say they both belong in tier 8 if we're using those tiers above. Philly has been more active in acquiring talent at the position than Baltimore, though, so I'd give Edwards slightly better odds of keeping his role next year, although Dixon could make a push for the job even if they ignore the position in free agency and the draft. Adams has less to worry about on the current roster.

2 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

I can keep either Wentz or Goff. Leaning Goff at this point.

Wentz is still a nice dynasty asset, but I'd go with Goff without hesitation if I had to pick between the two.

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10 hours ago, Dawg Pound 69 said:

Would be shocked if first 5 picks in a dynasty draft are all RB's. OBJ, Hopkins, and M Thomas are all young enough to get picked early in first.

Well, maybe you are easily shocked...? It wouldn't surprise me at all.

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7 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I like Adams a little but Philly is committed to RBBC, it would seem. And apparently they don't like throwing to Adams, although I haven't heard or seen if this is because he has bad hands or not. 

I think there's also the risk with Adams (and I own him in one league) that the team will bring in a free agent or rookie to replace him - or that Clement or Smallwood outplay him.

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Is Carson a sell high? Or is he a hold? Sitting on him and Penny right now.

Long term prospects for Ronald Jones? or should we be trying to get $0.50 on the $

 

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8 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Is Carson a sell high? Or is he a hold? Sitting on him and Penny right now.

Long term prospects for Ronald Jones? or should we be trying to get $0.50 on the $

That's a really tough question. I don't think anybody can know for sure, but what we do know for sure is that he hasn't done anything to warrant losing the job. He's averaging 4.5 ypc and has caught over 80% of his targets with only 1 drop (4.3%). I don't own him, but if someone wanted to include him in a package, I'd listen.

Same with Rojo. I'd gladly listen to people willing to sell for 50 cents on the dollar. He was one of the rookies I was least interested in, but that doesn't mean I thought he was bad. If I had him, I'd probably hold. At least see how the new coaching staff likes him. Maybe he'll be a better fit for the new offense.

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6 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Price check on Gronk?   2nd?  Anything you can get?

 

Gronk just wasn't a difference maker this season, and in many weeks he was a negative in your line-up. His injures have seemed to catch up to him. He's now one year closer to retirement (and would anyone be shocked if he does so this offseason?) and in a declining offense. I'm not sure you can get a second but I'd take it.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I'm shocked people still snake draft dynasty teams. Auction or gtfo.

I'm not. Auction adds an additional skill contest to a start up draft. If that is what you want fine, but there is a poker like element to auction leagues and it is a complication that I and many others would rather not deal with.

Edited by squistion
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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Gronk just wasn't a difference maker this season, and in many weeks he was a negative in your line-up. His injures have seemed to catch up to him. He's now one year closer to retirement (and would anyone be shocked if he does so this offseason?) and in a declining offense. I'm not sure you can get a second but I'd take it.

Yeah, he has back problems and it was iffy he was going to return this year. That uncertainty about his future, plus his less than stellar fantasy numbers many weeks would make potential buyers a little gun shy.

Own him in two leagues, tried to shop him before 2018 rookie drafts and got no serious offers. Doubt I could get a 2nd at the moment and not sure I would take a 3rd, unless it was an early 3rd and I was well stocked at TE position.

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Regarding Gronk, last week's rotoworld write up described him as moving like a later stage Frankenstein monster.

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25 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Regarding Gronk, last week's rotoworld write up described him as moving like a later stage Frankenstein monster.

I was listening to a Westwood 1 radio broadcast of a NE game a few months back and Ross Tucker noted that Gronk was moving as if he were in significant pain from back problems (Tucker said he recognized that as someone who has continuing back issues from his playing days).

Edited by squistion

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On 12/25/2018 at 11:00 AM, Andy Dufresne said:

Courtland Sutton's drops are concerning. Can he be traded away for a first? 

Wondering the same thing...  draft picks are tough to come by in my leagues.  I'm thinking it might take a package, such as a RB and Sutton, to command a high pick.

Might see a jump in value if Denver made a move at QB.  Overall, I like Sutton but see him as a possession receiver with good red zone potential.   But can he be "elite"?

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18 hours ago, Dawg Pound 69 said:

Would be shocked if first 5 picks in a dynasty draft are all RB's. OBJ, Hopkins, and M Thomas are all young enough to get picked early in first.

All the top 5 RB's (Barkley/Gurley/Zeke/Kamara/CMC) are young and can catch passes.  Taking any WR over them in a start up dynasty is bad decision IMO.

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12 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

That's a really tough question. I don't think anybody can know for sure, but what we do know for sure is that he hasn't done anything to warrant losing the job. He's averaging 4.5 ypc and has caught over 80% of his targets with only 1 drop (4.3%). I don't own him, but if someone wanted to include him in a package, I'd listen.

Same with Rojo. I'd gladly listen to people willing to sell for 50 cents on the dollar. He was one of the rookies I was least interested in, but that doesn't mean I thought he was bad. If I had him, I'd probably hold. At least see how the new coaching staff likes him. Maybe he'll be a better fit for the new offense.

I picked Jones up on the waiver wire in our league.  We have limited roster space and the guy that drafted him was making a playoff push.  Minimum transaction fee was well worth it.  Almost certain to be a new staff in Tampa so I think he gets another shot, but has to take advantage of it

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Searching for any 2 I can get for Gronk.  Only was offered 3.2 in 2019 or 3rd in 2020 and passing.

Have Engram, Howard, Njoku, so feeling OK if one of those can become top 3-5 going forward.

 

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9 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Searching for any 2 I can get for Gronk.  Only was offered 3.2 in 2019 or 3rd in 2020 and passing.

Have Engram, Howard, Njoku, so feeling OK if one of those can become top 3-5 going forward.

 

If I had those 3, I'd take the 3.2.  Gronk is done.

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33 minutes ago, tkrull said:

If I had those 3, I'd take the 3.2.  Gronk is done.

If would be a tough pill to swallow but I have to agree. Will his back miraculously heal up after another season and a year older? Will Brady turn the clock back?

I still think there is at least a 50% chance Gronk retires after this season.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If would be a tough pill to swallow but I have to agree. Will his back miraculously heal up after another season and a year older? Will Brady turn the clock back?

I still think there is at least a 50% chance Gronk retires after this season.

Owner said deal on a trade so waiting for him to go on and accept. Currently is Gronk and 2020 First (late) for 3.2 and 2020 1st (Early)

 

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Yeah, I don't think there's any way I'm trading a 2 for Gronk. If I were ultra desperate for a TE at this point I'd go a max of a 3rd for him, or more likely just look elsewhere.

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Devonta Freeman has to be a buy.  He's only 26 and Coleman is now gone.  Who in their right mind is taking Josh Adams over Freeman?  If people have Freeman as a high end RB3 you almost have to be buying at that price... 

Freeman has huge upside in a fairly competent offense - he could return to lead back status for another year or two including the pass catching role, which to me the upside there is worth way more than some of these low talent committee backs who have reached their upside. 

Tarik Cohen and Freeman should both be in tier 4 for RBs, maybe even tier 3. 

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3 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

Devonta Freeman has to be a buy.  He's only 26 and Coleman is now gone.  Who in their right mind is taking Josh Adams over Freeman?  If people have Freeman as a high end RB3 you almost have to be buying at that price... 

Freeman has huge upside in a fairly competent offense - he could return to lead back status for another year or two including the pass catching role, which to me the upside there is worth way more than some of these low talent committee backs who have reached their upside. 

Tarik Cohen and Freeman should both be in tier 4 for RBs, maybe even tier 3. 

He screams value for 2019 for sure, the problem I have with Freeman is the injuries have piled up quite a bit these past 2 years and he might just be worn out by now.  If he stays healthy I have no doubts he'd continue to be a RB1, but the injuries are concerning at this point.  I have to wonder if he's even close to the same guy anymore.  Coleman is likely gone yeah, but they have Ito Smith who they really like as a change of pace guy, and Brian Hill showed up this past week so he might be in the mix for more touches too.  That backfield could very well look like 50/25/25 % for those 3 going into next year.  

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On 8/17/2018 at 12:25 PM, EBF said:

Not doing any startups this year, as I've actually cut back on my leagues, but here's a quick list of some values I like based on consensus rankings.

Running Backs

RB12 Joe Mixon - RB is deep right now, so there's no need to reach on Mixon in the top 5, but I'm a strong buyer/holder at this ranking. I think he has a top 5 ceiling. There simply aren't a lot of big backs who have his speed, quickness, and hands. Multiple Pro Bowl potential.

RB28 Kenyan Drake - Atypical frame, but he's a great athlete. Shifty and fast. He catches the ball well and offers unique versatility. From a redraft standpoint, I'd put him in Derrick Henry/Joe Mixon territory, and he probably shouldn't be ranked so far below Henry in dynasty. I'm not sure which of the two is more talented.

OTHERS: I'm a known fan of Chase Edmonds (RB71) and Devante Mays (NR), but those guys are both strictly late round flyers. Mays is currently injured and not practicing, which could force Green Bay to cut him. I still believe there's a chance that he's the most talented RB on their roster. Somebody has to carry the ball in Indy, and with Marlon Mack (RB36) looking a little overrated, I'd probably put my bets on Jordan Wilkins (RB51) and Christine Michael (RB124). Wilkins is over-aged with average speed, but has great quickness and consistently made plays against top competition in college. We all know Michael's story and his inability to stick anywhere destroys any confidence in him, but even after all these years his quickness/burst jump off the screen compared to his competition. I liked Samaje Perine (RB55) as a Shonn Greene/Rudi Johnson type in the draft last year, and with Guice out, he may get a chance at redemption. Minimal upside, but he's probably not as terrible as people think. Penny (RB17), Chubb (RB20), and Kerryon Johnson (RB27) all make sense at those price points. Chubb flashed the least of that trio in preseason week one, but it's early days still.

 

Wide Receivers

WR15 JuJu Smith-Schuster - It's kind of a Mixon situation with JuJu. He's not cheap and you can understand why people are ahead of him, but he's probably not quite as expensive as he should be. Tremendous rookie production despite limited target load. Young player with WR1 tools. QB situation is muddy long-term, but he should only get better. I'd take him over Diggs, A Robinson, Cooper, and Adams. I think it's possible that he's a better player than Allen or M Thomas, though those guys have multiple seasons of very good numbers. When you look at the 9 year age gap between JuJu and people like Green and A Brown, it becomes a little questionable whether he should be ranked behind them. It depends on whether or not you think his talent is comparable, because he's a lot younger and a lot more valuable if it is.

WR26 DJ Moore - Not dirt cheap, but not really expensive either. You look at the names around him on the ADP sheet and they're either fading stars, inconsistent enigmas, or mediocrities for the most part. Moore as your WR3 in dynasty is appealing, as he can quickly jump up into the WR2 value range with a solid rookie season. I like what I've seen so far in training camp and preseason clips. He needs to be a little better about winning the contested passes, but his athleticism is going to cause problems because he has a rare combination of speed, power, and quickness to uncover.

OTHERS: John Ross (WR61) looked like a bit of a one trick pony coming out of Washington and had a forgettable rookie year, but let's not write him off just yet. He has elite speed and was a dominant playmaker in college. If he has even a 50% chance of being the next DeSean Jackson then he's a steal at this price. I'm not totally sold that Michael Gallup (WR46) is going to stick, but he has some similar qualities with other early-impact WRs like Michael Clayton and Hakeem Nicks. At this type of price you're not breaking the bank to get a guy who could be a FF WR2-WR3.

 

Tight Ends

TE17 Eric Ebron - Quietly put together a decent 2017 after a slow start. He's still young and a new team with an upgraded QB might be what's needed to unlock his full potential. Low risk with a high floor and a high ceiling. Even if he doesn't improve, you have a decent backup FF TE. His ceiling is finishing top 6-7 this year.

TE20 Hayden Hurst - Massively underrated. Advanced age for a rookie, but all the tools are there to be a steady top 8-10 guy for years. Will quickly overtake people like Olsen, Walker, and Rudolph in dynasty value as he proves his quality and they keep getting older.

TE22 Tyler Eifert - He's a great talent. One of the best in the game. It's really just a question of whether his body will hold up. So far it hasn't.

OTHERS - I wouldn't break the bank for Jonnu Smith (TE25) or Gerald Everett (TE24), but they were high picks with intriguing athletic tools who showed glimmers of potential as rookies.

Pretty good overall. Drake really let me down this year and was unstartable in FF playoffs, but still technically came through with a RB2 finish in PPR. It will be interesting to see what becomes of him in the future because he has some talent as a change-of-pace guy, but his team doesn't trust him to be the man.

Arrow up for DJ Moore after a promising first year.

Ebron was great for me this season until crunch time. Killed some of my teams in the last two weeks.

Mark Andrews looks good and I have him in 3/5 dynasties, but I'm still bullish on Hurst as well. Think he's going to continue to be value in next year's startups. 

Misread the SEA RB situation, which cost me a little bit in my redraft, as I took Penny over Carson.

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Where are people putting Baker Mayfield in the QB ranks?  When I put my ranks out I had him at QB11 which feels about right, but it could also be conservative.  I feel like he could end up almost anywhere in the top15.  The things that give me pause on him are supporting cast, and if they turn into a run first team with a good defense.  But he's definitely shown he should be considered as a QB1.  I think I want to move him to QB7 on my own ranks but I'm curious as to what other people feel about his outlook.

The main reason I ask is because I have Russell Wilson and Baker in a FFPC league, so I'm trying to gauge trade value for 1 or the other and everyone knows I value Russell higher than everyone else so this might be difficult for me ha.  

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14 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Where are people putting Baker Mayfield in the QB ranks?  When I put my ranks out I had him at QB11 which feels about right, but it could also be conservative.  I feel like he could end up almost anywhere in the top15.  The things that give me pause on him are supporting cast, and if they turn into a run first team with a good defense.  But he's definitely shown he should be considered as a QB1.  I think I want to move him to QB7 on my own ranks but I'm curious as to what other people feel about his outlook.

The main reason I ask is because I have Russell Wilson and Baker in a FFPC league, so I'm trying to gauge trade value for 1 or the other and everyone knows I value Russell higher than everyone else so this might be difficult for me ha.  

Really hard to gauge a guy off of a partial season. Like you say, this could be a run first team for the next few years. He could essentially be like 2018 Russell Wilson but probably without the insane TD/attempt ratio. I'd have a hard time expecting top 12 numbers from him in 2019. Obviously that's not all that important in dynasty, but I'd have a hard time ranking him above 9 or 10. I certainly wouldn't pay anything above that to acquire him.

 

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17 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Where are people putting Baker Mayfield in the QB ranks?  When I put my ranks out I had him at QB11 which feels about right, but it could also be conservative.  I feel like he could end up almost anywhere in the top15.  The things that give me pause on him are supporting cast, and if they turn into a run first team with a good defense.  But he's definitely shown he should be considered as a QB1.  I think I want to move him to QB7 on my own ranks but I'm curious as to what other people feel about his outlook.

The main reason I ask is because I have Russell Wilson and Baker in a FFPC league, so I'm trying to gauge trade value for 1 or the other and everyone knows I value Russell higher than everyone else so this might be difficult for me ha.  

He's a perfect kind of QB for a 1qb league. I think it's more likely he ends up crap than great, but he has the upside to be great and in a 1qb league it's no big deal if your QB (especially your backup) ends up being Droppable. 

Only problem is in FFPC carrying 2 QBs through the offseason (especially with someone reliable like Russ as your #1) is a lot. That roster spot is really valuable. 

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Hypothetically, if there was a 1st round re-do on rookie drafts, how would you guys go? Assuming normal non-IDP lineups:

1.01 Barkley
1.02 Chubb
1.03 Guice
1.04 DJ Moore
1.05 Kerryon
1.06 Michel
1.07 Pettis
1.08 Ridley
1.09 Lindsay
1.10 Royce
1.11 Sutton
1.12 Kirk/Penny

Barkley and Chubb both looked special to me and present a tier gap.

Guice's situation looked pretty good with AP putting up great numbers in that offense. He could easily join tier 1. 

Moore showed a lot of promise as a rookie. Couple that with pre-draft expectations and he gets a bump from his preseason ADP.

Kerryon and Michel are neck and neck. Hopefully injuries don't become a problem for KJ. He was healthy in college, but also not heavily used until his last year. Michel's passing game usage is obviously quite disappointing, but I think we all know the talent is there. He's getting the Dion Lewis treatment (wasting his receiving skills) from BB.

Pettis showed extremely well but in limited opportunities due to JG's injury and his own injuries. He and DJ are the only rookies I can see feasibly jumping into the top 12 next season. Tier gap after 1.07. If Carolina or SF bring in a top WR, that would clearly change the outlook for Moore or Pettis. The free agent pool is pretty bleak, though, and blockbuster trades are rare.

1.08 is the point where I'd be looking to trade my pick. Ridley flashed the good and the bad, but will be playing second fiddle to Julio for his rookie contract.

I don't feel great about Lindsay and Royce... one of them will probably be wrong. With a new staff coming in, I think it could go either way. Both guys have talent. After the high ankle sprain Royce fell off, but prior to that he was a league leader in yards after contact. The fact Lindsay was the league leader in yards before contact makes me nervous. The 2018 scheme was obviously a good fit for him, but with a new offense it's very possible Royce will be the better fit. At a minimum, Royce should dominate goal line touches.

Sutton/Kirk/Penny are all guys I wasn't that keen on before the draft, but showed some promise. Sutton gets the edge due to lack of competition. Penny's reported weight issues scare me a little as does Carson's solid play. Dat china food is good in Seattle. Hopefully he doesn't pull a Lacy.
 

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On 12/21/2018 at 6:51 PM, BearsFan4Life said:

14 team dynasty..no ppr

Spencer Ware....worth holding as a FA for next year or dump him for either..

Tim Patrick 

Tyrell Williams

Blake Jarwin

Duke Johnson Jr.

Rod Smith

Chris Warren III

Malcolm Brown

None of those guys are with much imo. But as flyers I'd take Ware, jarwin and rod Smith. Smith looked adequate when he's played but obviously isn't starting for a while barring injury.

On 12/21/2018 at 2:59 PM, whiskey7 said:

Any thoughts on Gus Edwards and/or Josh Adams at this point?

 

Pretty close in value, Gus looked better at times but both are very replaceable. 

I could obviously be wrong but I'd bet big on Baltimore drafting or signing a starting back. He'd be really expensive but Bell with Jackson could be very interesting. 

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23 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I don't feel great about Lindsay and Royce... one of them will probably be wrong. With a new staff coming in, I think it could go either way. Both guys have talent. After the high ankle sprain Royce fell off, but prior to that he was a league leader in yards after contact. The fact Lindsay was the league leader in yards before contact makes me nervous. The 2018 scheme was obviously a good fit for him, but with a new offense it's very possible Royce will be the better fit. At a minimum, Royce should dominate goal line touches.

I agree a new staff makes this backfield up in the air once again - heck they conceivably could bring in another RB, although that's probably not likely. I wouldn't read too much into the ybc with Lindsay though, his speed and elite lateral jump cuts probably played a huge role as to why he was able to get to the second level often. In the games I watch he often ran right up the middle into the gut of the defense so it wasn't like they were using him differently than Freeman either - so those stats are also likely a bit fluky due to a small sample size.

As to you main point - your rankings seem pretty spot on. I'd have a few minor quibbles (move Sony up before Kerryon, not as high on Pettis). Overall it looks like one of the better draft classes in a while as we had a super stud RB, a guy (Chubb) that is knocking on that door. Sony ran wild when he got carries and Kerryon was on the verge of breaking out big before his injury. There are a few WRs with pretty high ceilings and we haven't even thrown in the QBs. Most of us play in 1QB leagues so they lose some value but Mayfield, Allen and Darnold look like they could be perennial QB1s, Jackson's running ability makes him very dangerous and we'll see if Rosen can step up in Year 2.

Only the TEs have disappointed this far but that's the one position now that still takes some time to develop.

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I agree a new staff makes this backfield up in the air once again - heck they conceivably could bring in another RB, although that's probably not likely. I wouldn't read too much into the ybc with Lindsay though, his speed and elite lateral jump cuts probably played a huge role as to why he was able to get to the second level often. In the games I watch he often ran right up the middle into the gut of the defense so it wasn't like they were using him differently than Freeman either - so those stats are also likely a bit fluky due to a small sample size.

As to you main point - your rankings seem pretty spot on. I'd have a few minor quibbles (move Sony up before Kerryon, not as high on Pettis). Overall it looks like one of the better draft classes in a while as we had a super stud RB, a guy (Chubb) that is knocking on that door. Sony ran wild when he got carries and Kerryon was on the verge of breaking out big before his injury. There are a few WRs with pretty high ceilings and we haven't even thrown in the QBs. Most of us play in 1QB leagues so they lose some value but Mayfield, Allen and Darnold look like they could be perennial QB1s, Jackson's running ability makes him very dangerous and we'll see if Rosen can step up in Year 2.

Only the TEs have disappointed this far but that's the one position now that still takes some time to develop.

Yeah, I might be valuing situation too much with my rankings of Michel (knocking him for lack of targets) and Pettis (bumping him for lack of competition).

And you're correct, this past draft appears to be abnormally successful in the QB department. For 2QB/SF leagues, this was a stellar draft. I'd probably rank them Mayfield, Jackson, Darnold, Allen, Rosen based on the first year, but as we've seen, year 2 can really shake up the rankings a ton. Most of these guys will be learning new systems in year 2, so their value could go down before it goes up.

As for Lindsay, you're probably right not to read too much into the ybc - it's a very difficult stat to take into context, though. Impossible to truly know how much credit to assign to blocking, play calling, defensive scheme, vision, and elusiveness. I just figured it was worth pointing out. One of those things that would be easy to look back on in hindsight if he fails in a new system and think we should've caught it.

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Hypothetically, if there was a 1st round re-do on rookie drafts, how would you guys go? Assuming normal non-IDP lineups:

1.01 Barkley
1.02 Chubb
1.03 Guice
1.04 DJ Moore
1.05 Kerryon
1.06 Michel

That's where I'd feel safe with everything.  After 6 I'd probably still take Penny/Royce, then I'd consider a QB before the other WR's mostly.  

You point out Pettis, but I just can't get behind him.  He'd be a distant 2nd rounder for me, behind all the other noteable WR's - Ridley, Sutton, Kirk, and even Goedert.  

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13 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

That's where I'd feel safe with everything.  After 6 I'd probably still take Penny/Royce, then I'd consider a QB before the other WR's mostly.  

You point out Pettis, but I just can't get behind him.  He'd be a distant 2nd rounder for me, behind all the other noteable WR's - Ridley, Sutton, Kirk, and even Goedert.  

My thoughts on Pettis:
1) Early draft pick, only a couple spots behind Sutton
2) Suffered injuries* and injuries to QB, but had a very nice 4 game stretch when healthy
3) Minimal competition for targets
4) Routes look crisp and after the catch skills are impressive
5) Was Waldman's #1 WR

*Was not injury prone at all in college despite playing the additional special teams snaps

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29 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

My thoughts on Pettis:
1) Early draft pick, only a couple spots behind Sutton
2) Suffered injuries* and injuries to QB, but had a very nice 4 game stretch when healthy
3) Minimal competition for targets
4) Routes look crisp and after the catch skills are impressive
5) Was Waldman's #1 WR

*Was not injury prone at all in college despite playing the additional special teams snaps

Yep.

Player 1

  • Drafted #40 overall
  • Poor efficiency
  • Gifted opportunity to be team's #1 WR, but couldn't separate from meh competition on his team
  • Poor production as team's lead WR
  • Murky QB situation going forward
  • Tall

Player 2

  • Drafted #44 overall
  • Great efficiency
  • Gifted opportunity to be team's #1 WR and blew away the competition on his team
  • Great production as team's lead WR
  • Paired with a good young QB going forward
  • Not particularly tall

For whatever reason it seems like many are focused soley on bullet point #6.  If Pettis had a "prototypical WR build" he would be mostly untouchable right now, even though we've seen time and time again that the "prototypical WR build" is really no longer overly relevant in the modern NFL.

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27 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yep.

Player 1

  • Drafted #40 overall
  • Poor efficiency
  • Gifted opportunity to be team's #1 WR, but couldn't separate from meh competition on his team
  • Poor production as team's lead WR
  • Murky QB situation going forward
  • Tall

Player 2

  • Drafted #44 overall
  • Great efficiency
  • Gifted opportunity to be team's #1 WR and blew away the competition on his team
  • Great production as team's lead WR
  • Paired with a good young QB going forward
  • Not particularly tall

For whatever reason it seems like many are focused soley on bullet point #6.  If Pettis had a "prototypical WR build" he would be mostly untouchable right now, even though we've seen time and time again that the "prototypical WR build" is really no longer overly relevant in the modern NFL.

I’d add that Kirk (also not tall) outperformed Sutton.  He only played in 12 games, had just as bad of a QB situation, and was only 90 receiving yards behind Sutton (in 15 games).  Does he become the #1WR there? Does Fitz come back? Do they draft someone else?

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2 hours ago, Boone22 said:

I’d add that Kirk (also not tall) outperformed Sutton.  He only played in 12 games, had just as bad of a QB situation, and was only 90 receiving yards behind Sutton (in 15 games).  Does he become the #1WR there? Does Fitz come back? Do they draft someone else?

Personally I am a buyer of all these guys.  Kirk, Pettis, Lockett, Cooks, etc.

That's not to say they'll all become #1 WRs for their teams but I don't think their size inhibits their ability to do so nearly as much as is reflected in their value, so there is a nice value vs. opportunity gap there to take advantage of.

I'm not saying to spend the farm on them, but the nice thing is because of their size you don't have to.  I think they're just as likely to become #1 WRs as several bigger guys, but at half the price because they don't fit what we all grew to know as prototypical WRs.  Guys like Tyreek, Brown, Baldwin, Tate, Hilton were still acquirable at a fair price even as they were breaking out whereas more prototypically built WRs breaking out in the same way would already have been untouchable by then.

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5 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Hypothetically, if there was a 1st round re-do on rookie drafts, how would you guys go? Assuming normal non-IDP lineups:

1.01 Barkley
1.02 Chubb
1.03 Guice
1.04 DJ Moore
1.05 Kerryon
1.06 Michel
1.07 Pettis
1.08 Ridley
1.09 Lindsay
1.10 Royce
1.11 Sutton
1.12 Kirk/Penny
 

As someone who loves Pettis and acquired him in two leagues before the trade deadlines, I'd say consensus and trade value has him much lower than that and possibly after Kirk/Penny. Ridley and Sutton are way overvalued IMO and would slot in at 3 & 4 based on what I have seen for trades but I don't agree. Royce outside the 1st round and Anthony Miller still has his believers so moves him up to probably 12.

After Barkley/Chubb, I'd have it Guice, Michel, Kerryon, Moore, Ridley, Sutton, Pettis, Kirk, Lindsay, Miller. I like Moore but would have him after Kerryon and Michel as I don't like Cam much as far as a fantasy producer for his WR's. I think Guice leapfrog's Chubb once healthy but I'd be happy to own either. Kerryon & Michel I had questions pre-season about their situations holding them back and I still have those same questions but they have flashed some great potential. Sutton & Ridley may still pan out as future studs, but I think they are being valued is if that is a certainty.

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11 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

My thoughts on Pettis:
1) Early draft pick, only a couple spots behind Sutton
2) Suffered injuries* and injuries to QB, but had a very nice 4 game stretch when healthy
3) Minimal competition for targets
4) Routes look crisp and after the catch skills are impressive
5) Was Waldman's #1 WR

*Was not injury prone at all in college despite playing the additional special teams snaps

Mostly I'm just being stubborn on him.  I hadn't seen a play of his during the season and before the draft even happened and I was doing my own "scouting", I watched 2 games of his and immediately wrote down "DO NOT DRAFT".  I don't remember what it was exactly but he rubbed me the wrong way so I removed him.  He definitely has value right now though as a possible #1, although I doubt it.  That locker room is poised to draft a WR this year, maybe 2, and that whole room is shaken up.  Pettis might be the only one I have some confidence in with an ability to compete for starting snaps, but a lot is up in the air.  

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4 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Gronk deals happen lately? I'd like to finally move on from him

Just prior to him looking like absolute crap in the fantasy playoffs, I traded him and Ito for ARob. Feeling pretty good about that one.

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5 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Gronk deals happen lately? I'd like to finally move on from him

I bundled him with AJ Green and a mid-2nd, and managed to get back Thielen, Dede and a LB.  Hard to say how much (or how little) Gronk contributed to that overall though.

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