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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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What do people think of Melvin's value in the long-term? He's gonna be 26 in April. I gotta be honest, I'm really really starting to think about trading him off as all these knee issues are spooking me. I've had some people asking me about his availability. What are others doing?

If you own him are you considering moving him?

If you don't own him and are in the market for a RB, how high is he on your list?

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1 hour ago, ShamrockPride said:

What do people think of Melvin's value in the long-term? He's gonna be 26 in April. I gotta be honest, I'm really really starting to think about trading him off as all these knee issues are spooking me. I've had some people asking me about his availability. What are others doing?

If you own him are you considering moving him?

If you don't own him and are in the market for a RB, how high is he on your list?

He's on his 5th year option for 2019 with no long term contract.  I would think he's going to hold out at least a little if not more to make sure he gets paid.  If he gets a long term contract in the offseason I'd feel a lot more comfortable as a long term top10 dynasty RB.  But as of now he doesn't have that security on the same team just yet.  I have him ranked as if he gets that done though as RB6.  

The closer and closer we get to TC and preseason and no long term contract (if we even get that far), I think the lowest I'd go for him is near RB10-12 with the assumption that he'd play on his 5th year option instead of holding out.  

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15 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Definitely a long shot. They gave him RBBC money. If they sign someone or draft a decent rookie, his current price would look like highway robbery at that point. Very dicey to acquire him right now. I'm guessing this is his career peak stock price. But he's been a penny stock until now, so being worth $1 is a huge jump and if that long shot comes through, he might be worth $5 later. But Williams is like trading a biotech stock. Do you really want to buy after good news but before phase 3 trial results? 

Agree with much of this, although the best case scenario I'm considering is that if he does well in the playoffs and if that causes KC to decide he can be "the guy" he's potentially worth much more than the $5 analogy above, maybe several times that.  Longshot and risky yes, but if that scenario develops then right now, "after the good news but before the phase 3 trial results" to use the analogy above, makes this exactly the time to buy.  Fun discussion, but I guess this is mostly moot given that there's very little time to make a move given the Chiefs game is in less than 24 hours.

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On 1/11/2019 at 9:53 AM, FF Ninja said:

That's some thievery... well played, sir.  

Then I watch him play like he did today and I wonder if I sold him too low.  He’s a tough guy to put a price tag on but he passes the eye test. 

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In Damien Williams 4 starts he has 477 total yards and 5 touchdowns. The game before that he had 30 yards and two touchdowns.  

The window to buy is closing. I saw people talking about moving him for an early second before his 154 yards and a touchdown today - i don't think that's available anymore.  Curious what you would pay now, and what kind of deal you'd turn down if you owned him.

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On 1/12/2019 at 6:51 PM, TheBottomLine said:

Then I watch him play like he did today and I wonder if I sold him too low.  He’s a tough guy to put a price tag on but he passes the eye test. 

Never trust the eye test. I think CJA is a decent talent, but he's racked up 422 yards rushing (6.4 ypc) over his past 3 games. The eye test over that span says he's a stud.

Back to Williams, the guy has primarily played as a 3rd down back his entire career and didn't eclipse 4.0 YPC in any of his four previous seasons. YPC is not a great stat, but typically playing as the 3rd down back inflates YPC which is why I think it is notable here. 9 out of 10 times a career backup receiving a backup contract is not going to go into the next season as the starter. This isn't a strong RB class at the top, but there are plenty of guys that could make this a messy RBBC with Williams, if not take over. 

On 1/12/2019 at 7:28 PM, bostonfred said:

In Damien Williams 4 starts he has 477 total yards and 5 touchdowns. The game before that he had 30 yards and two touchdowns.  

The window to buy is closing. I saw people talking about moving him for an early second before his 154 yards and a touchdown today - i don't think that's available anymore.  Curious what you would pay now, and what kind of deal you'd turn down if you owned him.

If that isn't available anymore there will be a lot of bag holders in 4 months. Like I mentioned, CJA has 422 yards rushing in 3 games. What are people paying for him? He's only a year older than Williams. Small samples on good offenses mean very little. What means more is the money and this is backup money: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/damien-williams-15723/

Stranger things have happened - Forsett got his first 200 carry season at age 29, two years older than Williams will be next season - but he'd flashed more than Williams earlier in his career than Williams. Either way, it's not impossible that he's the starter next year, but the odds are very slim. If people are turning down early seconds, they are not playing the odds. I'd say it's akin to hitting on 18 in blackjack. Not the smart play, but every once in a while those players get a 3 and feel totally justified ignoring the odds.

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It’ll be really interesting if KC tries to sign Anderson in the off season. They kicked his tires when Hunt was released but they passed on him.  Gotta think they may be rethinking that move now that they’ve seen him in LA.  Having a combo of Anderson and Williams would allow them to use draft picks on defense and not waste an early pick on a RB. 

Edited by Boone22

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46 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

If that isn't available anymore there will be a lot of bag holders in 4 months. Like I mentioned, CJA has 422 yards rushing in 3 games. What are people paying for him?

There's an obvious major difference between the two players - Williams has a decent chance to remain the starting back for KC. Anderson has no chance to be LA's starting back next year.

If we go through free agency and the NFL draft with KC not spending big money or early draft capital at RB his trade value will increase and a second round pick will look like a bargain.

With that said I've sold in 2 of the 4 dynasty leagues I owned him as there is risk, but also because he was part of a package where I landed the best player in the deal (Jeffrey and Elliot). 

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

There's an obvious major difference between the two players - Williams has a decent chance to remain the starting back for KC. Anderson has no chance to be LA's starting back next year.

If we go through free agency and the NFL draft with KC not spending big money or early draft capital at RB his trade value will increase and a second round pick will look like a bargain.

With that said I've sold in 2 of the 4 dynasty leagues I owned him as there is risk, but also because he was part of a package where I landed the best player in the deal (Jeffrey and Elliot). 

Oh, I know - I didn't mean to make this about CJA. I was mainly pointing out how meaningless it is that Williams put up 477 total yards in 4 games if CJA has almost done that in rushing alone in 3 games. Small samples can be fun, but don't mean much. Especially on a potent offense. 

But out of curiosity, when you say he's got a decent chance, what odds are you thinking? 2 years for $5.1M is clearly backup money. I wouldn't fault them for rolling with him at that price if they think he can do what they need out of the position, but it just isn't common for that kind of thing to happen in the NFL these days. I couldn't imagine trading an early 2nd for him... not because I value the player I could draft, but I just know how valuable those picks become during the draft. You can often flip them for a future 1st or a veteran with ~5 years of utility left.

You're definitely right his stock will rise if he survives free agency and the NFL draft, but I think the odds of that are 10% at best.

And just for fun, bonus speculation question: if he survives, is he anything more than a 1 year rental? On a cheap 2-year deal, they'd almost certainly add some competition in the 2nd year if they don't in the 1st. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If we go through free agency and the NFL draft with KC not spending big money or early draft capital at RB 

It doesn't have to be early draft capital to threaten his value or his starting job, he was an undrafted FA himself in Miami. His contract extension 2 weeks ago is peanuts and easily cuttable. This isn't a 23 year old Arian Foster were talking about, who broke-out kind of similarly at the end of the season (and who got to see the Texans spend a 2nd round pick on a RB after he broke out at the end of 2009.) DW's got short-term value as a potential Chief's starter but he's always going to be looking over his back at any warm body they bring in. Even if he holds onto the job for all year and you win the gamble, he'll be 28 next year when RB trade value starts to crater and people will wonder what young guy the Chiefs will look to bring in to take over.

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21 minutes ago, Buckna said:

It doesn't have to be early draft capital to threaten his value or his starting job, he was an undrafted FA himself in Miami. His contract extension 2 weeks ago is peanuts and easily cuttable. This isn't a 23 year old Arian Foster were talking about, who broke-out kind of similarly at the end of the season (and who got to see the Texans spend a 2nd round pick on a RB after he broke out at the end of 2009.) DW's got short-term value as a potential Chief's starter but he's always going to be looking over his back at any warm body they bring in. Even if he holds onto the job for all year and you win the gamble, he'll be 28 next year when RB trade value starts to crater and people will wonder what young guy the Chiefs will look to bring in to take over.

If he holds the job next year you will have won the trade already and anything on top of that is just gravy.

Personally I'm going to look to buy Williams after they likely draft a RB and his value tanks.  These incumbents behind rookie RBs can always be had for peanuts and half the time they end up holding onto the job for at least another year anyway (see Chris Carson and Peyton Barber this year).

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27 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

But out of curiosity, when you say he's got a decent chance, what odds are you thinking? 2 years for $5.1M is clearly backup money. I wouldn't fault them for rolling with him at that price if they think he can do what they need out of the position, but it just isn't common for that kind of thing to happen in the NFL these days. I couldn't imagine trading an early 2nd for him... not because I value the player I could draft, but I just know how valuable those picks become during the draft. You can often flip them for a

I don't see how I can realistically put any odds on it - so I'll just stand with "decent chance". The Chiefs were smart to sign him before they had to since he did not have as much negotiation power as he would have now - and I can understand why he'd rather have the security.

Maybe it's "backup money" but $4MM a year is still decent money for a RB and I do not see why it matters either way. If he continues to impress and they make it to the Super Bowl the incentive to replace him diminishes. Getting a starting RB "on the cheap" isn't a bad thing for them heading into 2019.

And like I said the while the value of that second could shoot up closer to draft day - Williams' value can potentially skyrocket if he survives FA and the draft.   

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30 minutes ago, Buckna said:

It doesn't have to be early draft capital to threaten his value or his starting job, he was an undrafted FA himself in Miami. His contract extension 2 weeks ago is peanuts and easily cuttable. This isn't a 23 year old Arian Foster were talking about, who broke-out kind of similarly at the end of the season (and who got to see the Texans spend a 2nd round pick on a RB after he broke out at the end of 2009.) DW's got short-term value as a potential Chief's starter but he's always going to be looking over his back at any warm body they bring in. Even if he holds onto the job for all year and you win the gamble, he'll be 28 next year when RB trade value starts to crater and people will wonder what young guy the Chiefs will look to bring in to take over.

Sure but he is the incumbent and this is a weak draft class. The odds of him losing the job diminish if they don't take a day 1 or day 2 RB - and there was a study done by @gianmarco a few years back that showed that the incumbent generally held onto the job when challenged by a RB taken after round 1.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I don't see how I can realistically put any odds on it - so I'll just stand with "decent chance". The Chiefs were smart to sign him before they had to since he did not have as much negotiation power as he would have now - and I can understand why he'd rather have the security.

Maybe it's "backup money" but $4MM a year is still decent money for a RB and I do not see why it matters either way. If he continues to impress and they make it to the Super Bowl the incentive to replace him diminishes. Getting a starting RB "on the cheap" isn't a bad thing for them heading into 2019.

And like I said the while the value of that second could shoot up closer to draft day - Williams' value can potentially skyrocket if he survives FA and the draft.   

It's not $4M/year. That was reported but that includes him hitting every incentive. I couldn't quickly find what the incentives are, but the base contract is actually only $5.1M over 2 years: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/damien-williams-15723/

I get why it shouldn't matter, but contract size is one of the better indicators we've got right now and you've got to use all the data available. To me $2,550,000/average salary doesn't scream confidence and I'd rather have an early or even mid-2nd. We don't even know what the split would be with a healthy Spencer Ware, much less a free agent or day 2 rookie.

5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Sure but he is the incumbent and this is a weak draft class. The odds of him losing the job diminish if they don't take a day 1 or day 2 RB - and there was a study done by @gianmarco a few years back that showed that the incumbent generally held onto the job when challenged by a RB taken after round 1.

I've got a lot of research to do before draft season, but FWIW, I've read that this is a weak RB class at the top (which is all most people want to talk about - and I don't blame them), but there are a lot of RBBC level talents in this class.

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6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It's not $4M/year. That was reported but that includes him hitting every incentive. I couldn't quickly find what the incentives are, but the base contract is actually only $5.1M over 2 years: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/damien-williams-15723/

I get why it shouldn't matter, but contract size is one of the better indicators we've got right now and you've got to use all the data available. To me $2,550,000/average salary doesn't scream confidence and I'd rather have an early or even mid-2nd. We don't even know what the split would be with a healthy Spencer Ware, much less a free agent or day 2 rookie.

I've got a lot of research to do before draft season, but FWIW, I've read that this is a weak RB class at the top (which is all most people want to talk about - and I don't blame them), but there are a lot of RBBC level talents in this class.

Spencer Ware is a free agent so we likely don't have to worry about him next year - and sure I get that Ware's injury this season further opened the door for Williams. The bottom line though is that Williams has excelled in the role and knows the offense - if the Chiefs get to the Super Bowl with him being a big part of the offense their incentive to replace him goes down. Why would they want to spend money they need elsewhere or use more then a "depth" draft pick to upgrade at RB.

And I'm not saying he's some super stud that can hold off any challenge - but I don't think it's realistic to worry about some 4th or 5th round pick stepping in and taking the job - NFL history shows that just doesn't happen often. Can it happen?, sure but that's the risk element of a risk versus reward calculation.  

I'm not advocating trading for him necessarily but I also don't think it's wise to give him away for a mid second (that likely has less of a chance to pay out). If he holds onto the job his value to your team  or as a trade chip goes up almost a full round. The guy helped me win 2 of my 3 championships this year - the production is real even if he's not as sexy as some college RB that gets drafted. Andy Reid's system is very RB friendly so having his starting back is a boon - which is evidenced by the fact that there wasn't much drop off from Hunt to Williams.

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45 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And I'm not saying he's some super stud that can hold off any challenge - but I don't think it's realistic to worry about some 4th or 5th round pick stepping in and taking the job - NFL history shows that just doesn't happen often. Can it happen?, sure but that's the risk element of a risk versus reward calculation.  

This is where we will have to agree to disagree. This an Andy Reid offense as you said in a different post, Ware was a 6th rounder, West was undrafted, Damien was undrafted, Hunt was a late 3rd rounder, all these guys have found success in this offense. Damien is a guy they found off the scrap heap, an UDFA that couldn't muster 4ypc in Miami in four seasons and IMO, anyone with a pulse they bring in is a realistic worry to taking the job. Maybe you've got the next Dion Lewis on your hands, but I'd say that's a lot less likely than a 4th or 5th round pick taking his job.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

If he holds the job next year you will have won the trade already and anything on top of that is just gravy.

Personally I'm going to look to buy Williams after they likely draft a RB and his value tanks.  These incumbents behind rookie RBs can always be had for peanuts and half the time they end up holding onto the job for at least another year anyway (see Chris Carson and Peyton Barber this year).

I can get behind the second sentence, too much risk to trade for him right now for the price of an early 2nd. They resign Ware, his value tanks and the price likely becomes worth the gamble. They let Ware walk, they almost certainly spend a mid-round pick on a RB to replace, DW's value tanks. They sign Bell, his value tanks to zero (unlikely but you never know, who saw them wasting a bunch of money on Watkins this past offseason?)

Edited by Buckna

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27 minutes ago, Buckna said:

This is where we will have to agree to disagree. This an Andy Reid offense as you said in a different post, Ware was a 6th rounder, West was undrafted, Damien was undrafted, Hunt was a late 3rd rounder, all these guys have found success in this offense. Damien is a guy they found off the scrap heap, an UDFA that couldn't muster 4ypc in Miami in four seasons and IMO, anyone with a pulse they bring in is a realistic worry to taking the job. Maybe you've got the next Dion Lewis on your hands, but I'd say that's a lot less likely than a 4th or 5th round pick taking his job.

The key part of why I don't think it's realistic to worry about some 4th or 5th round pick stepping in and taking the job was the second part (NFL history shows that just doesn't happen often) in that he'll be the established incumbent and NFL history shows a RB drafted after round 1 generally does not come in and push the incumbent aside. It's not impossible but the odds are against it. I would be his job to lose heading into camp, and he'll have Reid's trust based on this season.

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How much would it take for you to sell Barkley as of today? Let's assume 1/2 PPR and standard lineup requirements. How about a starting point of Chubb or Mixon + ???  How much more would you want added (players and picks) to a tier 3 RB like Chubb or Mixon in order to sell Barkley? Age is relatively equal to these 3 RB's and isn't much of a factor. How would your sell price change between dynasty and a 2 keeper league? Multiple high draft picks in a 2 keeper allow you to fill your 2019 starting lineup with picking 3 guys from WR10-18 and Kelce/Ertz/Kittle in addition to your 2 solid RB keepers, 1 of them being Chubb or Mixon. Holding onto Barkley gets you only 1 guy from that player pool. 

I'd like to hear what it would take for anyone to sell Barkley in dynasty and keeper leagues right now using either Chubb or Mixon (or comparable RB) as a starting point. If you think he's untouchable, how much of an overpay would be needed?

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5 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

What means more is the money and this is backup money: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/damien-williams-15723/

Stranger things have happened - Forsett got his first 200 carry season at age 29, two years older than Williams will be next season - but he'd flashed more than Williams earlier in his career than Williams. Either way, it's not impossible that he's the starter next year, but the odds are very slim. If people are turning down early seconds, they are not playing the odds. I'd say it's akin to hitting on 18 in blackjack. Not the smart play, but every once in a while those players get a 3 and feel totally justified ignoring the odds.

I don't really agree with this.

The team had cut hunt, had ware on his final year and williams.  

Williams was at the end of a 1 year 1.8m deal and the team signed him to an incentive laden contract extension that could be worth over 4 million a year for the next two years.  

From his perspective, coming off a 1 year deal for under 2 million this represented a big raise based off a couple good games and the opportunity to set himself up for life.  Lots of good rbs didn't get a call this off season. 

From the team's perspective, why lock him up, even for back up money, before the season ended?  They already had him for the rest of the year, and if he gets hurt they cost themselves money.  It's because they intended to use him and they knew his price could go up.  That's literally the only reason to sign him to an extension when they did. 

You say they signed him to backup money and backup money usually means a backup role. I agree when the player is signed in the off season. These kinds of in season extensions for players who go from third string to starting the afc championship game are rare.  The last comparable deal i can think of was dion, like you mentioned.  

What i see is a relatively young player with low wear and tear averaging over 100 yards and 1.4 touchdowns the last 5 weeks, who can play all 3 downs and can run and catch and score touchdowns in one of the top offenses in the NFL.

Is it possible he gets usurped?  Of course.  Is it likely?  Maybe, but I'd say much less likely after what he did to the colts, but it could certainly happen. 

I absolutely would not prefer an early second in a relatively weak rb draft class to a guy with the potential to put up Kareem hunt numbers.  Even if the chiefs draft or sign someone - and williams loses the job in training camp - he's still a highly valuable backup.  Good backup rbs can be league winners. 

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29 minutes ago, Lionsfan011 said:

How much would it take for you to sell Barkley as of today? Let's assume 1/2 PPR and standard lineup requirements. How about a starting point of Chubb or Mixon + ???  How much more would you want added (players and picks) to a tier 3 RB like Chubb or Mixon in order to sell Barkley? Age is relatively equal to these 3 RB's and isn't much of a factor. How would your sell price change between dynasty and a 2 keeper league? Multiple high draft picks in a 2 keeper allow you to fill your 2019 starting lineup with picking 3 guys from WR10-18 and Kelce/Ertz/Kittle in addition to your 2 solid RB keepers, 1 of them being Chubb or Mixon. Holding onto Barkley gets you only 1 guy from that player pool. 

I'd like to hear what it would take for anyone to sell Barkley in dynasty and keeper leagues right now using either Chubb or Mixon (or comparable RB) as a starting point. If you think he's untouchable, how much of an overpay would be needed?

I own Barkley in 3 FFPC dynasty leagues, given those are full ppr yet somewhat small rosters Barkley value goes up some. For me if the starting point was Chubb or Mixon I'd need like a Michael Thomas added in order to deal him, otherwise I'm just fine keeping him

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38 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

 Even if the chiefs draft or sign someone - and williams loses the job in training camp - he's still a highly valuable backup.  Good backup rbs can be league winners. 

This is a good point that gets overlooked, since he was a league winner down the stretch this season in that role we know it can be possible again.

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

I don't really agree with this.

The team had cut hunt, had ware on his final year and williams.  

Williams was at the end of a 1 year 1.8m deal and the team signed him to an incentive laden contract extension that could be worth over 4 million a year for the next two years.  

From his perspective, coming off a 1 year deal for under 2 million this represented a big raise based off a couple good games and the opportunity to set himself up for life.  Lots of good rbs didn't get a call this off season. 

From the team's perspective, why lock him up, even for back up money, before the season ended?  They already had him for the rest of the year, and if he gets hurt they cost themselves money.  It's because they intended to use him and they knew his price could go up.  That's literally the only reason to sign him to an extension when they did. 

You say they signed him to backup money and backup money usually means a backup role. I agree when the player is signed in the off season. These kinds of in season extensions for players who go from third string to starting the afc championship game are rare.  The last comparable deal i can think of was dion, like you mentioned.  

What i see is a relatively young player with low wear and tear averaging over 100 yards and 1.4 touchdowns the last 5 weeks, who can play all 3 downs and can run and catch and score touchdowns in one of the top offenses in the NFL.

Is it possible he gets usurped?  Of course.  Is it likely?  Maybe, but I'd say much less likely after what he did to the colts, but it could certainly happen. 

I absolutely would not prefer an early second in a relatively weak rb draft class to a guy with the potential to put up Kareem hunt numbers.  Even if the chiefs draft or sign someone - and williams loses the job in training camp - he's still a highly valuable backup.  Good backup rbs can be league winners. 

Another possible factor is that Williams wanted to say in KC for family purposes:  https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/article223682195.html

The details are up on Spotrac, and in my opinion it's a very favorable contract for the Chiefs:  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/damien-williams-15723/

Only $1.6 million guaranteed, which is really the only number that matters, and he's a cut candidate whenever, basically.  I don't say that to act like he's not of any worth, just that it's a team-friendly contract.  It sounds like both sides got what they wanted - Williams got a nice check, stays close to his family, the Chiefs get a player who is very valuable to them, and might be more valuable to them than other teams.  Don't forget that Damien was a solid special teams guy on the #1 ranked unit in the league as well.

I don't think the contract indicates faith in Damien as the future RB, and I don't think it disqualifies him, either.  It could be the contract steal of the decade for all we know, but it does make me wonder whether those of us looking at fantasy numbers might be missing something in real-life football that the better trained eye can see.  I really don't know.

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2 hours ago, Lionsfan011 said:

I'd like to hear what it would take for anyone to sell Barkley in dynasty and keeper leagues right now using either Chubb or Mixon (or comparable RB) as a starting point. If you think he's untouchable, how much of an overpay would be needed?

The conversation would have to start with Chubb AND Mixon, otherwise it's just not worth my while to trade away the #1 asset in dynasty.

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59 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

I don't really agree with this.

The team had cut hunt, had ware on his final year and williams.  

Williams was at the end of a 1 year 1.8m deal and the team signed him to an incentive laden contract extension that could be worth over 4 million a year for the next two years.  

From his perspective, coming off a 1 year deal for under 2 million this represented a big raise based off a couple good games and the opportunity to set himself up for life.  Lots of good rbs didn't get a call this off season. 

From the team's perspective, why lock him up, even for back up money, before the season ended?  They already had him for the rest of the year, and if he gets hurt they cost themselves money.  It's because they intended to use him and they knew his price could go up.  That's literally the only reason to sign him to an extension when they did. 

You say they signed him to backup money and backup money usually means a backup role. I agree when the player is signed in the off season. These kinds of in season extensions for players who go from third string to starting the afc championship game are rare.  The last comparable deal i can think of was dion, like you mentioned.  

What i see is a relatively young player with low wear and tear averaging over 100 yards and 1.4 touchdowns the last 5 weeks, who can play all 3 downs and can run and catch and score touchdowns in one of the top offenses in the NFL.

Is it possible he gets usurped?  Of course.  Is it likely?  Maybe, but I'd say much less likely after what he did to the colts, but it could certainly happen. 

I absolutely would not prefer an early second in a relatively weak rb draft class to a guy with the potential to put up Kareem hunt numbers.  Even if the chiefs draft or sign someone - and williams loses the job in training camp - he's still a highly valuable backup.  Good backup rbs can be league winners. 

Why lock him up for backup money? Why not? That's just good business. Like has been mentioned, Ware is a FA and they have no other depth. They are going to need bodies in the RB room next year. Might as well sign him now. The deal is structured to be a win-win (sort of). If they use him as a backup, they pay him as a backup. If he hits all his incentives, he gets $4M/year which is almost low-end starter money. So not a great win-win for the player, but like you said, that's enough money to be set for life (if you're smart about it).

But I think you are overstating things:
(1) The "over $4 million" is actually $4.05 if he hits every single incentive over two years. Also, by signing him this year they were able to put his signing bonus on this current season, so next year he only accounts for $1.2M and $2.3M the following year. So that's another possible answer to "why lock him up this year?" There's only a $533k cap hit if they cut him after 2019. If they had given him a $1.6M signing bonus after this year, that is only split over 2 years instead of 3.
(2) As for being "relatively young" he will be 27 next season in a league where, this season, a 27 year old CJA had a hard time finding a job, 29 year old Doug Martin was considered washed up, and 30 year old Demarco Murray is retired. I'm not saying he's old, but relatively young he is not.

It sounds like you are hoping for a running back savior. Why else does it matter that this is a weak RB draft class when talking about an early 2nd round pick? The important thing about that early 2nd is that it grows in value during the draft. You can usually fetch far more than you should for that pick if you trade it while on the clock. And I mentioned it to Dr.O, but this RB class (from what I've read) is not strong at the top, but is strong at the middle. So if you were to go RB hunting in the draft, an early 2nd would not be a bad pick for this class. The articles and opinions I've read could be wrong, but supposedly this draft is loaded with RBBC/contributor level talent at RB.

All I'm saying is I'd pump the brakes on this "the window has closed for an early 2nd" talk. That's still a hell of a deal for the seller if the seller is the type of player who plays the odds.

30 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

This is a good point that gets overlooked, since he was a league winner down the stretch this season in that role we know it can be possible again.

That describes basically half the handcuffs in the league. Jerome Harrison once put up 3 amazing games in a row at the end of the season... never to be heard from again. If I hadn't blocked an opponent from picking up CJA, he'd have been a league winner, too. Jamaal Williams was a league winner for some people. Latavius Murray had a nice stretch earlier this year. Derrick Henry averaged like 3 yards per carry for 12 games before exploding. Being a backup with league winning capabilities is not rarefied air. I hope nobody was trading early 2nds for Mewelde Moore back in the day.

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

That describes basically half the handcuffs in the league. Jerome Harrison once put up 3 amazing games in a row at the end of the season... never to be heard from again. If I hadn't blocked an opponent from picking up CJA, he'd have been a league winner, too. Jamaal Williams was a league winner for some people. Latavius Murray had a nice stretch earlier this year. Derrick Henry averaged like 3 yards per carry for 12 games before exploding. Being a backup with league winning capabilities is not rarefied air. I hope nobody was trading early 2nds for Mewelde Moore back in the day.

ok

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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A couple other points on the Damien Williams discussion:

- I think the fantasy community freaks out too much about teams adding multiple players at one position.  We get too attached to our assets and assume the latest person signed/drafted is the presumptive starter.  The Colts situation comes to mind this year - not that Marlon Mack was any sort of guarantee in real life or fantasy, but with two RB drafted, it seemed fantasy folks were very down on his possibilities, even though in real life, no team would go into a season with one functional RB on their roster!  Which is what the Colts had, with Turbin suspended.  The Chiefs are not going into next year with one running back - they carried four RB on the active roster this year.  Looking at the Damien Williams signing from a real life, not a fantasy, perspective, doesn't necessarily tell us anything either way, besides the fact he's playing well in the right here and now.  They were going to sign someone to play RB!

- At some point, I think we have to take into account that Damien was third on the depth chart.  Presuming the KC coaching staff knows what it's doing (sometimes a dangerous proposition), there was a reason he was behind Ware.  I'll admit, to my eye he looks like a more dynamic running back, but I'm not a scout.  What did KC see in Ware that we as fantasy players may have missed - or did KC just miss on this one?

Some of the narratives are getting a little confusing - Reid's offense is great for RBs, Reid is great at unearthing RBs in the late rounds of drafts, etc.  Yet he didn't play Damien until he had to.  Maybe Reid got it wrong, but I think the sequence of events is worth considering.

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18 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

Some of the narratives are getting a little confusing - Reid's offense is great for RBs, Reid is great at unearthing RBs in the late rounds of drafts, etc.  Yet he didn't play Damien until he had to.  Maybe Reid got it wrong, but I think the sequence of events is worth considering.

It's not that confusing why Williams was third in line. Hunt was coming off an incredible rookie season and Ware had been in Reid's system on the roster for multiple years. Hunt is clearly better than Williams. Ware is probably debatable - both are solid, neither are dynamic. I wouldn't say he got it wrong - it's just the way these things go.

Let's not forget that Hunt was able to break out due to a Ware season ending injury in the preseason, and before that Ware/West were a committee after Jamal Charles's season ended with injury.  

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10 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's not that confusing why Williams was third in line. Hunt was coming off an incredible rookie season and Ware had been in Reid's system on the roster for multiple years. Hunt is clearly better than Williams. Ware is probably debatable - both are solid, neither are dynamic. I wouldn't say he got it wrong - it's just the way these things go.

Let's not forget that Hunt was able to break out due to a Ware season ending injury in the preseason, and before that Ware/West were a committee after Jamal Charles's season ended with injury.  

I think your post illustrates the point I was trying to make, albeit I can't quite spit it out in a non-roundabout fashion...we're relying on a lot of assumptions in regard to Damien's dynasty/keeper future.  It's an assumption that Ware was ahead of Williams on the depth chart post-Hunt because of his familiarity with Reid's system.  Certainly there is logic to that, but we don't actually know if the Chiefs viewed Ware as a superior player at the juncture in time of Hunt's dismissal.  Again, it's very possible the Chiefs didn't know what they had in Damien.

As an example, Ware has been a healthy scratch since Week 17 (I believe), with Darrel Williams getting the main backup reps.  In this case, it doesn't look like the Chiefs are valuing familiarity with the system.

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6 hours ago, rschroeder1 said:

As an example, Ware has been a healthy scratch since Week 17 (I believe), with Darrel Williams getting the main backup reps.  In this case, it doesn't look like the Chiefs are valuing familiarity with the system.

Ware hasn't been a healthy scratch, he tested out his hamstring pre-game and couldn't play this past week. 

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2 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Ware hasn't been a healthy scratch, he tested out his hamstring pre-game and couldn't play this past week. 

Thanks for the info.  I read on Twitter (uh-oh) he was a healthy scratch in Week 17 and I assumed - wrongly - he was for the divisional round.  Ignore my so-called point!

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Any thoughts on what Golladay would be worth relative to draft picks ? 

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29 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Any thoughts on what Golladay would be worth relative to draft picks ? 

He was recently traded for the 1.02 in one of the leagues I’m in.

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1 minute ago, fruity pebbles said:

He was recently traded for the 1.02 in one of the leagues I’m in.

Thanks. I've got some things to ponder. Was hoping 1.7 and Gallup would be enough but I'm not sure will get it done

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Thanks. I've got some things to ponder. Was hoping 1.7 and Gallup would be enough but I'm not sure will get it done

I don't think even a Dallas fan would take that.  Casual fans are calling this a weak draft class, so 1.7 is probably being viewed as more like 2.1 would be in a better year.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Any thoughts on what Golladay would be worth relative to draft picks ? 

I’d say near the 1.02 sounds about right.  If I think of it as my #1 ranked WR vs Golladay, I THINK I take Golladay over him.  But it’s one hell of a debate in my head.  

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46 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I don't think even a Dallas fan would take that.  Casual fans are calling this a weak draft class, so 1.7 is probably being viewed as more like 2.1 would be in a better year.

Gallups value took a hit with the trade of Cooper, at best Gallup could be a 2a type

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

I don't think even a Dallas fan would take that.  Casual fans are calling this a weak draft class, so 1.7 is probably being viewed as more like 2.1 would be in a better year.

I feel a bit differently. Usually there are a few really good guys at the top of the draft, and those picks are super valuable. Then things even out in the middle of the first and near the end of the first and into the second it gets a bit hazy value-wise.

In a draft like 2019, the 1.07 is "almost" as valuable as the 1.02 because there just aren't those "sure things" at the top, so the hazy value actually kind of starts at 1.01 this year and just continues on through. I'm not so sure 1.07 is any weaker than any other class necessarily, and it seems to me that 1.07 is almost more valuable than normal because there isn't that super high value at the top tilting the scales that way.

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I've been shopping Golladay in the leagues I own him because I don't like the Bevell hire or pairing with Stafford.  He's not a must move by any means though.

I've been asking teams that look like they'll miss the playoffs for a 2020 1st and a 2nd either this year or next.  Im not ready to send out offers for 2019 1sts yet but it would probably take the 1.01 or multiple picks in the top 7, although that could change.

Essentially I think his production is close to maxed out, maybe 90% of his ceiling, although his value would probably increase with another year of strong performance. 

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2 hours ago, kutta said:

In a draft like 2019, the 1.07 is "almost" as valuable as the 1.02 because there just aren't those "sure things" at the top, so the hazy value actually kind of starts at 1.01 this year and just continues on through. I'm not so sure 1.07 is any weaker than any other class necessarily, and it seems to me that 1.07 is almost more valuable than normal because there isn't that super high value at the top tilting the scales that way.

Think of last yesr’s draft. It was assumed that there were 4-6 RBs that weren’t considered to be interchangeable, but there was no consensus. 

No one would pay for 1.02, so basically everything after 1.01 was “worth” essentially the same as the worst pick in the bunch. 1.01, 1.06, 1.06, 1.06, 1.06, 1.06. 

I see something similar this year (today) where there’s going to be like 4-12 players that are all similar enough that few people will care whether they draft at 1.04 or 2.02.

I may change my opinion after the combine and certainly after the draft when landing spot scrambles some rankings.  

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Think of last yesr’s draft. It was assumed that there were 4-6 RBs that weren’t considered to be interchangeable, but there was no consensus. 

No one would pay for 1.02, so basically everything after 1.01 was “worth” essentially the same as the worst pick in the bunch. 1.01, 1.06, 1.06, 1.06, 1.06, 1.06. 

I see something similar this year (today) where there’s going to be like 4-12 players that are all similar enough that few people will care whether they draft at 1.04 or 2.02.

I may change my opinion after the combine and certainly after the draft when landing spot scrambles some rankings.  

I agree. I just think it may go all the way to the 1.02 or even the 1.01. So the value of the lower picks starts to tilt upwards.

I think 🤔 

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On 1/14/2019 at 4:15 PM, tangfoot said:

The conversation would have to start with Chubb AND Mixon, otherwise it's just not worth my while to trade away the #1 asset in dynasty.

That’s very interesting.  What if you were offered Sony Michel and Aaron Jones?  Fair or lopsided?

ETA:  let’s go with the assumption that you don’t have much at RB other than Barkley in a 2RB league 

Edited by Hoh

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13 hours ago, kutta said:

I feel a bit differently. Usually there are a few really good guys at the top of the draft, and those picks are super valuable. Then things even out in the middle of the first and near the end of the first and into the second it gets a bit hazy value-wise.

In a draft like 2019, the 1.07 is "almost" as valuable as the 1.02 because there just aren't those "sure things" at the top, so the hazy value actually kind of starts at 1.01 this year and just continues on through. I'm not so sure 1.07 is any weaker than any other class necessarily, and it seems to me that 1.07 is almost more valuable than normal because there isn't that super high value at the top tilting the scales that way.

It'll start to clear up after the combine and it'll really clear up after the NFL draft. That being said, from a talent perspective, the 1.07 should nab you a very talented rookie WR. Depending on landing spots, I'm guessing the top 7 picks will be 5WR and 2RB. If I was @Dr. Dan, I'd inquire about the availability of Golladay early and make my interest known, but would not make an offer until the draft starts. I've seen people decline better offers pre-draft than they accept during the draft.

That being said, I wouldn't trade 1.02 for Golladay. He's got WR2 upside, whereas I see WR1 upside in these rookies... many of which are 3-4 years younger than Golladay.

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31 minutes ago, Hoh said:

That’s very interesting.  What if you were offered Sony Michel and Aaron Jones?  Fair or lopsided?

ETA:  let’s go with the assumption that you don’t have much at RB other than Barkley in a 2RB league 

That wouldn’t sniff Barkley in most leagues imo.

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51 minutes ago, Hoh said:

That’s very interesting.  What if you were offered Sony Michel and Aaron Jones?  Fair or lopsided?

ETA:  let’s go with the assumption that you don’t have much at RB other than Barkley in a 2RB league 

That would be a disaster of a trade and I like Sony more than most.

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

It'll start to clear up after the combine and it'll really clear up after the NFL draft. That being said, from a talent perspective, the 1.07 should nab you a very talented rookie WR. Depending on landing spots, I'm guessing the top 7 picks will be 5WR and 2RB. If I was @Dr. Dan, I'd inquire about the availability of Golladay early and make my interest known, but would not make an offer until the draft starts. I've seen people decline better offers pre-draft than they accept during the draft.

That being said, I wouldn't trade 1.02 for Golladay. He's got WR2 upside, whereas I see WR1 upside in these rookies... many of which are 3-4 years younger than Golladay.

the deal I've worked out so far is 1.2, 1.7, Gallup, 2 2020 2nds, 20203rd for golladay, 1.10, 2020 1st 2020 2nd

I feel the same about pick 1.2 being an a great wr, so I'm reluctant.

 

ETA, I own 1.1 and 1.3

Edited by Dr. Dan

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2 hours ago, Hoh said:

That’s very interesting.  What if you were offered Sony Michel and Aaron Jones?  Fair or lopsided?

ETA:  let’s go with the assumption that you don’t have much at RB other than Barkley in a 2RB league 

I'd rather have Barkley and [insert any available free agent RB], and by a large margin.

Full disclosure, I don't own Michel anywhere, and won't.  But in my mind you're offering a pair of RB2s for the #1 overall asset in dynasty.  You're not even at half of the Chubb/Mixon offer.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That would be a disaster of a trade and I like Sony more than most.

So you’re saying if I pull it off I’m an evil genius...🤣🤣

Edited by Hoh

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1 minute ago, Hoh said:

So you’re saying if I pull it off I’m an evil genius...🤣🤣

If you got Barkley for that - good for you.

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