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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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4 hours ago, kutta said:

I was just offered this trade for Barkley. I turned it down. I just don’t see much that will entice me to move him at this point. 

Team A will give up:

Conner, James PIT RB and Michel, Sony NEP RB and Robinson, Allen CHI WR and Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE

Kutta will give up up Barkley, Saquon NYG RB

 

I think the owner was making this offer on "what they did this past year" and not what they will provide to you in the future...since I agree this is not an offer I would consider.  The problem too often is their perceived "past value" when making an offer today.  How many knew about Michel's knee issues prior to 3 months ago?  Some, sure, but not the majority.  Thus maybe this owner is still in the blind?  

Connor's value?  There is little chance he works in the Top 15 discussion for 2019 ...too much uncertainty on his role/value. 

It's funny since I moved Conner Week 6 for E Sanders & OJ Howard (TE premium format) and now I would be lucky to get Vernon Davis for him today! 

 

 

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8 hours ago, kutta said:

I was just offered this trade for Barkley. I turned it down. I just don’t see much that will entice me to move him at this point. 

Team A will give up:

Conner, James PIT RB and Michel, Sony NEP RB and Robinson, Allen CHI WR and Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE

Kutta will give up up Barkley, Saquon NYG RB

 

I was just turned down 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and Jordan Howard pretty easily.

I did counter though.  Mixon, 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and 2020 1st for Barkley, and a 2, 3, and 4.

Doubt he takes it but in now way am I looking to sell.

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2 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

I was just turned down 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and Jordan Howard pretty easily.

I did counter though.  Mixon, 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and 2020 1st for Barkley, and a 2, 3, and 4.

Doubt he takes it but in now way am I looking to sell.

Now that’s more like it! ...which is crazy to say, because that’s essentially seven firsts, with many high firsts in there.  

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11 hours ago, kutta said:

Conner, James PIT RB and Michel, Sony NEP RB and Robinson, Allen CHI WR and Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE

 

 

Zero interest if I got Barkley. A polite no thanks with no counter would be my response.

 

2 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

I was just turned down 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and Jordan Howard pretty easily.

 

Zero interest if I got Barkley. A nice no thanks and no counter.

 

2 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

 

 Mixon, 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and 2020 1st for Barkley, and a 2, 3, and 4.

 

You got my attention, depending on my team I'm mulling over accepting or proposing slight tweak.

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22 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

I was just turned down 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and Jordan Howard pretty easily.

I did counter though.  Mixon, 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and 2020 1st for Barkley, and a 2, 3, and 4.

Doubt he takes it but in now way am I looking to sell.

I would gladly pay that price for Barkley. I own Mixon and think he is good but don’t trust the Bengals to not implode. This years draft class seems like anyone of 12 guys could be in the top 3 (thin for elite talents) so I don’t think the firsts are as strong as years past. The future pick is nice but a crapshoot like any other rookie pick. Don’t get me wrong it is a good amount on paper, I just think you work so hard to get elite players it is hard to give them away without getting one in return (no slight against Mixon, I just don’t put him in the elite category). Barkley may be a generational talent, hang onto him.

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2 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I would gladly pay that price for Barkley. I own Mixon and think he is good but don’t trust the Bengals to not implode. This years draft class seems like anyone of 12 guys could be in the top 3 (thin for elite talents) so I don’t think the firsts are as strong as years past. The future pick is nice but a crapshoot like any other rookie pick. Don’t get me wrong it is a good amount on paper, I just think you work so hard to get elite players it is hard to give them away without getting one in return (no slight against Mixon, I just don’t put him in the elite category). Barkley may be a generational talent, hang onto him.

I agree with this. I really see no way I would trade him. 

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On 2/8/2019 at 6:13 PM, skinfanjon said:

I was just turned down 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and Jordan Howard pretty easily.

I did counter though.  Mixon, 1.01, 1.03, 1.05, and 2020 1st for Barkley, and a 2, 3, and 4.

Doubt he takes it but in now way am I looking to sell.

I would take that counter proposal.

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39 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I would take that counter proposal.

He was the one that sent the counter.  He has Barkley.

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11 hours ago, kutta said:
14 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I would gladly pay that price for Barkley. I own Mixon and think he is good but don’t trust the Bengals to not implode. This years draft class seems like anyone of 12 guys could be in the top 3 (thin for elite talents) so I don’t think the firsts are as strong as years past. The future pick is nice but a crapshoot like any other rookie pick. Don’t get me wrong it is a good amount on paper, I just think you work so hard to get elite players it is hard to give them away without getting one in return (no slight against Mixon, I just don’t put him in the elite category). Barkley may be a generational talent, hang onto him.

I agree with this. I really see no way I would trade him. 

:goodposting: 

I own Barkley in both of my dynasty leagues and would not trade him for anything that has been discussed in this thread.

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For you Barkley owners that say he's untouchable, what if it were another top 6-7 asset plus something?

I understand not moving him for a package of moderate assets, but there is a pretty strong top 6-7 right now.  Would you move him for a trade where the main piece you were getting back was CMC/Kamara/OBJ/Hopkins/Zeke and you were getting something like a first or a solid young RB like Fournette/Kerryon/Cook with that other top 7 piece?

I'm really interested in how untouchable he is because I think Barkley is the best top dynasty player we've had in a long time, but I also think the next 6 or so guys behind him are the strongest we've seen in quite a while as well.

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

For you Barkley owners that say he's untouchable, what if it were another top 6-7 asset plus something?

I understand not moving him for a package of moderate assets, but there is a pretty strong top 6-7 right now.  Would you move him for a trade where the main piece you were getting back was CMC/Kamara/OBJ/Hopkins/Zeke and you were getting something like a first or a solid young RB like Fournette/Kerryon/Cook with that other top 7 piece?

I'm really interested in how untouchable he is because I think Barkley is the best top dynasty player we've had in a long time, but I also think the next 6 or so guys behind him are the strongest we've seen in quite a while as well.

I would trade Barkley for OBJ/Hopkins and Cook/Fournette.

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The only WRs I'd entertain as the primary piece in a Barkley deal are JuJu, Tyreek, and Michael Thomas.  And I'd have to really like the RB you attach to them.  Mixon and Guice come to mind.

Even then I'd still need a high 1st too.

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Yeah, Barkley owners will be keeping him for quite a while. 

And they probably should. I don't remember a better, more obviously sure thing prospect right out of the gate ever. And I've been doing this hobby a LONG time.

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1 hour ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I would trade Barkley for OBJ/Hopkins and Cook/Fournette.

 

I pretty much paid this price for Barkley this offseason. I dealt Fournette for 3 later devy picks (we do one round), then dealt Gurley and those 3 picks for Barkley. This was before the full playoff slump made people weird on Gurley. 

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16 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

I pretty much paid this price for Barkley this offseason. I dealt Fournette for 3 later devy picks (we do one round), then dealt Gurley and those 3 picks for Barkley. This was before the full playoff slump made people weird on Gurley. 

The price I paid was before his rookie season, but it turned out to be N. Chubb, A. Cooper and R. Jones.  Looking back at it now seems like an easy win.

 I was glad that I stuck to my guns on Barkley.  Barkley was the best prospect I ever watched.  Gurley was close to that as well coming out, but I thought Barkley was a notch above him.  3rd and 4th best I have ever seen were Julio and AJG.  Of course, I was wrong on some others: M. Thomas, Kamra, OBJ.  

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

For you Barkley owners that say he's untouchable, what if it were another top 6-7 asset plus something?

I understand not moving him for a package of moderate assets, but there is a pretty strong top 6-7 right now.  Would you move him for a trade where the main piece you were getting back was CMC/Kamara/OBJ/Hopkins/Zeke and you were getting something like a first or a solid young RB like Fournette/Kerryon/Cook with that other top 7 piece?

I'm really interested in how untouchable he is because I think Barkley is the best top dynasty player we've had in a long time, but I also think the next 6 or so guys behind him are the strongest we've seen in quite a while as well.

I would have to think long and hard about anything mentioned. I don’t think one of the other stud RBs and a high pick would do it. I would consider two of those guys (Hopkins and Zeke, for example, or CMC and Kamara), but I know that’s unreasonable and would never happen.

Fournette and Cook with one of those guys wouldn’t get it done.

Edited by kutta
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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

For you Barkley owners that say he's untouchable, what if it were another top 6-7 asset plus something?

I understand not moving him for a package of moderate assets, but there is a pretty strong top 6-7 right now.  Would you move him for a trade where the main piece you were getting back was CMC/Kamara/OBJ/Hopkins/Zeke and you were getting something like a first or a solid young RB like Fournette/Kerryon/Cook with that other top 7 piece?

I'm really interested in how untouchable he is because I think Barkley is the best top dynasty player we've had in a long time, but I also think the next 6 or so guys behind him are the strongest we've seen in quite a while as well.

If "plus something" means another top 10 player or so, maybe.

To put it another way, it would take 2 top 10 players, and probably the right ones, for me to move him. Something like 2 of Zeke, CMC, OBJ, Hopkins. I have zero interest in a trade as you describe here (bolded).

I realize no one would likely pay the price I require, and I'm perfectly fine with that. I really don't have any interest in moving him unless I get an offer I simply cannot refuse.

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49 minutes ago, kutta said:

I would have to think long and hard about anything mentioned. I don’t think one of the other stud RBs and a high pick would do it. I would consider two of those guys (Hopkins and Zeke, for example, or CMC and Kamara), but I know that’s unreasonable and would never happen.

Fournette and Cook with one of those guys wouldn’t get it done.

:hifive: 

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5 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

For you Barkley owners that say he's untouchable, what if it were another top 6-7 asset plus something?

I understand not moving him for a package of moderate assets, but there is a pretty strong top 6-7 right now.  Would you move him for a trade where the main piece you were getting back was CMC/Kamara/OBJ/Hopkins/Zeke and you were getting something like a first or a solid young RB like Fournette/Kerryon/Cook with that other top 7 piece?

I'm really interested in how untouchable he is because I think Barkley is the best top dynasty player we've had in a long time, but I also think the next 6 or so guys behind him are the strongest we've seen in quite a while as well.

Not for me. 

take two guys off your first list and sure I'd do that, but no one would pay it. I have no interest in Fournette and I wouldnt downgrade at rb for Dalvin Cook

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12 Team .5 PPR

I offered:

Mixon, Amari Cooper, OJ Howard, 1.4, 1.6 and 1.9 for Barkley and was turned down. 

Also offered Chubb, Diggs, OJ Howard, 1.4, 1.6 and 1.9 and was turned down.  

Both offers were for Barkley only. 

Edited by Deuceman

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This discussion makes me realize he's just impossible to move right now.  Good owners will require a fortune to deal him and if you sell everything to get him, what's the point?  Your team will be gutted and take several years to build back up.

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Shifting gears...

Golladay + what draft picks = Kittle in FFPC?

 

I feel like this is the last year you'll ever be able to pry him away, so want to make an aggressive offer but not wreckless.

1 early 1st?  A couple late 1sts?

 

ETA: Just got him for Golladay, 1.10, and 1.12 in FFPC.  That was my opening offer 5 minutes ago and it was already accepted.

Edited by skinfanjon
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I mainly play leagues were draft picks are determined by playoffs so you can win pick 1 if you are a solid borderline playoff team. But in leagues where you actually have to be the worst team in the league to have got the pick to select  Barkley sure seems like owners of those teams would appreciate a haul.

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5 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I mainly play leagues were draft picks are determined by playoffs so you can win pick 1 if you are a solid borderline playoff team. But in leagues where you actually have to be the worst team in the league to have got the pick to select  Barkley sure seems like owners of those teams would appreciate a haul.

I guess that's the exception that I could see...a truly awful team splitting him up for a godfather offer.  

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8 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Shifting gears...

Golladay + what draft picks = Kittle in FFPC?

 

I feel like this is the last year you'll ever be able to pry him away, so want to make an aggressive offer but not wreckless.

1 early 1st?  A couple late 1sts?

Few weeks ago I gave Michel and 1.8 for Kittle, also got anticipated second round bump in 2020. I got Golladay on that team and I'd have gave him instead of either the 8 or Michel if need be.

As to the bolded comment let me say maybe not, and this is coming from someone who just paid for him.

I looked this up a few weeks ago and 49'ers were in bottom 5 of the NFL in WR targets, catches, and yards.

Total SF team WR production:

256/152/1990

Top individual WR seasons under Kyle Shanaha:

182/113/1346 which was Garcon

203/136/1871 which was Julio

What I'm getting at is if they can upgrade WR, in addition to McKinnons return as a likely high volume pass catchers it's pretty easy for me to see a pretty solid decline in Kittle's usage. I acquired him and paid that price for him because a stud TE was cherry on the top for that team and that's what I think he is, but I kind of think the time to buy him might be later.

 

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8 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Few weeks ago I gave Michel and 1.8 for Kittle, also got anticipated second round bump in 2020. I got Golladay on that team and I'd have gave him instead of either the 8 or Michel if need be.

As to the bolded comment let me say maybe not, and this is coming from someone who just paid for him.

I looked this up a few weeks ago and 49'ers were in bottom 5 of the NFL in WR targets, catches, and yards.

Total SF team WR production:

256/152/1990

Top individual WR seasons under Kyle Shanaha:

182/113/1346 which was Garcon

203/136/1871 which was Julio

What I'm getting at is if they can upgrade WR, in addition to McKinnons return as a likely high volume pass catchers it's pretty easy for me to see a pretty solid decline in Kittle's usage. I acquired him and paid that price for him because a stud TE was cherry on the top for that team and that's what I think he is, but I kind of think the time to buy him might be later.

 

You make an interesting case about him being such a focal point.  I guess the one scenario that concerns me is if they traded for Antonio Brown.  That would shake up the entire offense and with McKinnon available and Pettis ascending, he could absolutely lose a bunch of targets.  Although the offense would hum much better so maybe he'd double his TDs to 10 or more.   I don't really see any other big time WRs available that could have an immediate impact on his 2019 production.  Maybe i they took Metcalf in the first round, but not sure they can afford that luxury.  Maybe if they signed Le'Veon Bell, that might disappoint me a bit too.

If his numbers don't drop off, I think he becomes basically untouchable and there just aren't too many scenarios where I see his overall production significantly declining.

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56 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I mainly play leagues were draft picks are determined by playoffs so you can win pick 1 if you are a solid borderline playoff team. But in leagues where you actually have to be the worst team in the league to have got the pick to select  Barkley sure seems like owners of those teams would appreciate a haul.

I’m in two dynasty leagues. I made the playoffs and was top 3 in points in both.

I traded Antonio Brown for 1.1 in one league and Zeke for 1.1 in the other last offseason. In both cases, straight up, and I think I easily won both trades.

So the only haul that would make sense for me is to get 2 truly elite players. I don’t have the roster spots for 3-5 non-elite players and draft picks. 

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

I’m in two dynasty leagues. I made the playoffs and was top 3 in points in both.

I traded Antonio Brown for 1.1 in one league and Zeke for 1.1 in the other last offseason. In both cases, straight up, and I think I easily won both trades.

So the only haul that would make sense for me is to get 2 truly elite players. I don’t have the roster spots for 3-5 non-elite players and draft picks. 

Yes but that's getting 1.1 via trade, not being the worst team in the league and getting 1.1.

But I was talking about teams who legit suck, are worst teams in the league that got pick 1.1 last year. There are teams out there in almost every league of mine that are so barren I'd not give up a mid to late 2019 first for one single player on the their team. If a team like that had found themselves with 1.1 last year and drafted Barkley, that's the kind of team I think it makes sense to deal Barkley for a haul now. Amazingly it seems like not many teams like that landed Barkley, which I guess is why they are so bad in the first place.

FWIW I'd have done both of those deals you did last offseason and easily so. I had Barkley as my #2 overall player last offseason but was already close to Gurley before he took a snap. In my biggest money league I put out a poll in I think week 3 asking people if they had 1.1 in a startup who would they take and I listed options as Gurley, Kamara,  Barkley,  Elliot or other. This was when Kamara was smoking hot and votes went Gurley 4, Kamara and Barkley with 3 each, one for Elliot and one no vote. I own Gurley in this league and I voted for Barkley, took me all of 3 weeks to move him over Gurley for sure.

 

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There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson.  Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story.  How high of a value do people put on him?  

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson.  Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story.  How high of a value do people put on him?  

in terms of pick, probably a late 1st. Fair to say there are more questions about him now after year 1 in Chicago. He did have that good playoff game so there is a ray of hope but the regular season was pretty mediocre

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12 hours ago, Zyphros said:

There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson.  Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story.  How high of a value do people put on him?  

2015 is starting to look like an outlier season for Robinson - and those numbers seem to be a bit conflated by the garbage time stats Bortles put up.

I liked him as a prospect and think he has some talent but at some point production is production.

He would be a guy I'd be reluctant to trade for - as I'm just not sure the potential reward is worth the risk of a late pick breaking out.

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On 2/9/2019 at 9:18 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

He was the one that sent the counter.  He has Barkley.

Yep. And if I were the owner of all those draft picks I would take his counter proposal to get Barkley.

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On 2/10/2019 at 10:29 AM, Andy Dufresne said:

Yeah, Barkley owners will be keeping him for quite a while. 

And they probably should. I don't remember a better, more obviously sure thing prospect right out of the gate ever. And I've been doing this hobby a LONG time.

Elliot was pretty solid coming in. Closest to situation I can think of. Barkley caught a lot more passes.

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2 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Elliot was pretty solid coming in. Closest to situation I can think of. Barkley caught a lot more passes.

Absolutely. Barkley is, IMO, undoubtedly better.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

any opinions on what Engram is worth in draft picks?

1.10?

1.12?

TE premium leagues I’d say near a mid 1st.  He seems to still be highly regarded and I’d still put him above any rookie TE.  I just wouldn’t buy him in other leagues since middling TEs are so replaceable.

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2 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

I would maybe trade the 1.9 or 1.10 for him.

 

2 hours ago, Zyphros said:

TE premium leagues I’d say near a mid 1st.  He seems to still be highly regarded and I’d still put him above any rookie TE.  I just wouldn’t buy him in other leagues since middling TEs are so replaceable. 

Thanks. Was offered 1.10 for him. Trying to determine if that is fair value. It would be a swap for Hockenson or Fant just because that would leave me light at TE. Not sure I like them better long term over Engram at this point.

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23 hours ago, Zyphros said:

There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson.  Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story.  How high of a value do people put on him?  

I posted about this in that trade thread.

In a league I could use another WR someone posted AROB for a 2019 first or any 2020 first. They did not say "any" on the 2019 first so maybe they would not take my pick which is 11 but when I saw their message I mulled over offering it. I knew based on "value" and team need I should do it. Just could not talk myself into it.

Honestly felt a lot to me like Alshon Jeffrey two years ago. Granted that was a stronger draft but I took two offers that year were I gave up I think pick 9 for Alshon. It was one of those deals where value was on my side. I posted those trades in the trade forum and everyone who commented said I won.  I lost both of those trades and this has the same feel to me

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On 2/10/2019 at 8:01 PM, Zyphros said:

There was a recent trade in the offseason thread of Arob for Fournette, so I'm wondering how people are valuing Allen Robinson.  Fournette seems easy enough to rank but Robinson is a different story.  How high of a value do people put on him?  

I would easily trade a late 1st for him. I'd need to see how the combine/draft shake out before giving a more precise value, but right now I'm guessing I'd put his value around 1.09.

22 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

2015 is starting to look like an outlier season for Robinson - and those numbers seem to be a bit conflated by the garbage time stats Bortles put up.

I liked him as a prospect and think he has some talent but at some point production is production.

He would be a guy I'd be reluctant to trade for - as I'm just not sure the potential reward is worth the risk of a late pick breaking out.

Let me preface this by saying that I've got zero AR shares and if I ever had any, they were only in redraft. Last offseason I was looking into the impact of garbage time as a whole (I think it started with a discussion about Hopkins and his garbage time) and while garbage time did impact AR positively in 2015 (as it does most players), his stats while the game was not out of hand were actually exceptional already. It's difficult to pull the numbers out accurately because trailing by 2-3 scores will typically lead to more targets, but I want to say if you gave him the same number of targets, but at his non-garbage time rate, he still would have put up ~80/1250/12 that season.

I did the little study using points per target to discern whether garbage time targets were worth more than regular targets (they were). I also figured what % of their stats came from garbage time. IIRC, AR was around 35% which was higher than average but not out of line with some other players like Hopkins who didn't get a bad wrap for garbage time stats. Speaking of Hopkins, they both had equally terrible 2016s (both were at 1.31 points per target in 1ppr).

Just wanted to share that data, but interpretation is up to each individual. Personally I took it as a positive for him... last season he was on my radar. I was ready to snag him in my redraft auctions if the price was right, but I never got him. I also lightly tried to trade for him in dynasty with no success. I think I'm going to give it a go again, as it seems his price is even lower this year. He's 25 and will turn 26 just before the season starts. His points per target last year were respectable (1.64 - 1ppr) although not awe inspiring. However, when taken into context that's not bad - he was dealing with nagging injuries (groin?) all year and the targets were coming from Trubisky who is at least a step down from QBs that most of the top performers were getting targets from.

He's obviously not without risk. Injuries limited him last season and he's only played 16 games in two of five seasons. Additionally, there are people out there who think Anthony Miller will overtake him to be the Bears' WR1. He's unlikely to see 150 targets like he did in JAX, as Chicago ranked 25th in pass attempts under Nagy last season. IMO, a realistic range of outcomes for a healthy AR would be 72/1000/5 to 80/1120/8. So I'd put him in line with players like Golladay, Landry, and Cooper.

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I did the little study using points per target to discern whether garbage time targets were worth more than regular targets (they were). I also figured what % of their stats came from garbage time. IIRC, AR was around 35% which was higher than average but not out of line with some other players like Hopkins who didn't get a bad wrap for garbage time stats. Speaking of Hopkins, they both had equally terrible 2016s (both were at 1.31 points per target in 1ppr).

Maybe because Hopkins has produced year in and year out while Robinson has not?

I'll admit he's a tough player to evaluate as there are plenty of things to like but at this point since I'm not really sold I'll take my chances with the late first (and I realize those odds aren't great). I can understand why some would rather take the chance on a player that showed he can get it done - even if it has not been consistently.

And I don't think it's strictly a case o garbage time targets being necessarily better to worse than regular targets - it also has to do with the spike in targets that come with garbage time.

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Maybe because Hopkins has produced year in and year out while Robinson has not?

I'm sure there are several factors - I wasn't trying to speculate on why, just citing the perception.

3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'll admit he's a tough player to evaluate as there are plenty of things to like but at this point since I'm not really sold I'll take my chances with the late first (and I realize those odds aren't great). I can understand why some would rather take the chance on a player that showed he can get it done - even if it has not been consistently.

A lot depends on how rookie ADP starts to shake out and, of course, on team need. If you're set for 2019, then why not develop a high upside guy? I see both sides. But generally speaking, I think AR is at least worth a late 1st. If I was doing a snake startup, I'd take AR before I took 1.10.

5 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

And I don't think it's strictly a case o garbage time targets being necessarily better to worse than regular targets - it also has to do with the spike in targets that come with garbage time.

Absolutely and that was one of the things I pointed out in the garbage time discussion. I said I was wary of guys that played a lot of garbage time because (1) their points per target data was skewed and (2) their target volume was likely to regress as the team probably faces less garbage time in the coming years.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

A lot depends on how rookie ADP starts to shake out and, of course, on team need. If you're set for 2019, then why not develop a high upside guy? I see both sides. But generally speaking, I think AR is at least worth a late 1st. If I was doing a snake startup, I'd take AR before I took 1.10.

This is one of those strange disparity's with startup drafts (and part of the reason I think rookies are somewhat undervalued in startup drafts after the top couple).  ARob's current startup ADP is before the 1.03 pick in startup drafts, but of course no one would pay 1.03 or even close to that for him in an actual trade.

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

This is one of those strange disparity's with startup drafts (and part of the reason I think rookies are somewhat undervalued in startup drafts after the top couple).  ARob's current startup ADP is before the 1.03 pick in startup drafts, but of course no one would pay 1.03 or even close to that for him in an actual trade.

Hah, that's funny. I had no idea. I refuse to do snake startups. Auction or gtfo for me. It seems you would be correct about rookie being undervalued in snake startups then. What ADP did you look at?

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20 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Hah, that's funny. I had no idea. I refuse to do snake startups. Auction or gtfo for me. It seems you would be correct about rookie being undervalued in snake startups then. What ADP did you look at?

Not sure what Bagel used but my data matches what he is saying...Harry and DK ahead of ARob, but that's it. Montgomery, Jacobs and Harmon are all close behind though. 

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What is everyone's thought on Antonio Brown given the latest news? 

I own him in 1 dynasty league, in win now mode.  Keep or trade? 

If trading, what would you want in return?

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25 minutes ago, Yambag said:

What is everyone's thought on Antonio Brown given the latest news? 

I own him in 1 dynasty league, in win now mode.  Keep or trade? 

If trading, what would you want in return?

Keep or hold until the situation is cleared up. You’ll take a beating dealing him now. People hate uncertainty.

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Kelce value in picks? I was offered him for OJ, 1.6, 2.12, 2019 3.  Seemed steep to me for an almost 30 yo TE.

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