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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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2 hours ago, JackReacher said:

Love Woods game but that’s a touch too steep for me. I’d pay either mid-first or 2020 first but not both. I’d say mid-first and 2020 second. As a contender, I’m gonna resist all offers to sell 2020 firsts, even if the piece can help me.

This seems to be the prevailing thought based on offers I've made.  Feels like taking a mid 1st is just hoping you'll draft someone as good, with slim odds of actually doing so.  And no one wants to pay 2 firsts.

I'll probably just end up keeping him. Maybe move him in season.

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3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Does anyone have thoughts on Robert Woods value in picks?  He's so underrated, love having him on contenders but have him on a rebuild and can't get what I feel is fair value.  

I think a mid first and 2020 1st for Woods and a 2nd or 3rd sounds about right.  Is that way too much?

The problem is Kupp will most likely go back to playing the slot next year and Woods will go back outside. There’s 3 good WR’s there, and half of Woods year was only with two. Things could change a little next year.

I’d probably pay a late first but that’s it. I like Kupp more than Woods, and would pay an early first for him.

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4 minutes ago, kutta said:

The problem is Kupp will most likely go back to playing the slot next year and Woods will go back outside. There’s 3 good WR’s there, and half of Woods year was only with two. Things could change a little next year.

I’d probably pay a late first but that’s it. I like Kupp more than Woods, and would pay an early first for him.

This is the line of thinking I don't understand.  Woods was the WR 11 when Kupp went down, and finished as the WR 11.  He was the same guy with or without him.

They're only a year apart in age.  I'd much rather have the guy not rehabbing an ACL.  Somehow Kupp is sexier though.

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7 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Does anyone have thoughts on Robert Woods value in picks?  He's so underrated, love having him on contenders but have him on a rebuild and can't get what I feel is fair value.  

I think a mid first and 2020 1st for Woods and a 2nd or 3rd sounds about right.  Is that way too much?

I bought Woods toward the end of this past year for the playoff push. I paid my 2019 1st. It ended up being 1.11 in a 12 team league.  I’m happy to have him for that price going into next year.  The best I’d have hoped for would have been to get someone like Woods with that pick. 

Edited by Boone22

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6 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Does anyone have thoughts on Robert Woods value in picks?  He's so underrated, love having him on contenders but have him on a rebuild and can't get what I feel is fair value.  

I think a mid first and 2020 1st for Woods and a 2nd or 3rd sounds about right.  Is that way too much?

I posted in the trade thread but I just moved Woods a couple weeks ago. I know you're asking for pick value so I'm not sure how close this could come to approximating that. A couple trade calculators I looked at had this as even but I feel I overpaid a little. But I also cleared an all important roster spot in FFPC style where we have to cut to 16. 

I gave Woods, Lindsay and 1.08

I got Evans, 2.04

What is Evans worth maybe two 1sts plus a little more? Possible consensus in this thread is saying a mid 1st for Woods. So then this trade is something like mid 1st plus that 1.08, plus part of the value of Lindsay for Evans

 The remainder of the Lindsay value goes to the 2.04, which is probably light. So IDK take that as you will. For the record I am betting Evans hasn't had his best season yet, whereas as much as I love Woods, he may have.

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22 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I posted in the trade thread but I just moved Woods a couple weeks ago. I know you're asking for pick value so I'm not sure how close this could come to approximating that. A couple trade calculators I looked at had this as even but I feel I overpaid a little. But I also cleared an all important roster spot in FFPC style where we have to cut to 16. 

I gave Woods, Lindsay and 1.08

I got Evans, 2.04

What is Evans worth maybe two 1sts plus a little more? Possible consensus in this thread is saying a mid 1st for Woods. So then this trade is something like mid 1st plus that 1.08, plus part of the value of Lindsay for Evans

 The remainder of the Lindsay value goes to the 2.04, which is probably light. So IDK take that as you will. For the record I am betting Evans hasn't had his best season yet, whereas as much as I love Woods, he may have.

Packaging him is probably the right move.  You definitely got the best player in that deal, but I'm not sure I could have pulled the trigger on it personally.  There are a few guys I'm warming to in the mid to late 1st range, and I'm a Lindsay believer too.  I'd need a really strong roster to make that move, which you may very well have.

I've toyed with pairing Woods and either Guice or Fuller, but haven't gotten very far with it.  I think the problem is those two guys both have things to prove, while Woods is criminally undervalued.  It's just not enough to make someone give up a top 24 asset.

I've also tried selling him for lesser WRs plus a pick, but that doesn't get far either.  Ridley and Moore owners aren't interested even straight up.  

Ultimately he's probably a hold.  If he has a good start to the season and really entrenches himself as a WR2, maybe he'll get the respect he deserves on the trade market.

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1 hour ago, Matt's Eagles said:

What does everyone value Leonard Fournette at?  What are you paying fir or selling him for?

I don't view him highly at all, but maybe I'm the only one.  I have him ranked at RB22 overall and roughly ADP 50.  My rankings are based on PPR though so that deflates him a little bit compared to others.  I expect that to be somewhere between 1.04 and 1.07 but I'm not likely to even pay that price.  If I knew my 1st would be playoff caliber I might make that trade for him as a missing piece, but I wouldn't want to buy him as a centerpiece.  Haven't seen any deals for him lately because his value is in the toilet it seems compared to last year.  

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38 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Packaging him is probably the right move.  You definitely got the best player in that deal, but I'm not sure I could have pulled the trigger on it personally.  There are a few guys I'm warming to in the mid to late 1st range, and I'm a Lindsay believer too.  I'd need a really strong roster to make that move, which you may very well have.

I've toyed with pairing Woods and either Guice or Fuller, but haven't gotten very far with it.  I think the problem is those two guys both have things to prove, while Woods is criminally undervalued.  It's just not enough to make someone give up a top 24 asset.

I've also tried selling him for lesser WRs plus a pick, but that doesn't get far either.  Ridley and Moore owners aren't interested even straight up.  

Ultimately he's probably a hold.  If he has a good start to the season and really entrenches himself as a WR2, maybe he'll get the respect he deserves on the trade market.

Yeah this is pretty much my strongest team. I did win the title this year. I had to do a 2 for 1 type deal or I would be stuck cutting someone with significant value later. I'll admit I probably wouldn't do the deal on my other squads. And I do own Lindsay and Woods on a couple others. I like them both a lot. I think Lindsay is going to be a perennial RB2 with weekly RB1 upside, and Woods will stay around that WR1/WR2 level as well. I think there is a decent chance Evans is *the* WR1 for one of the next couple years, though. Other factors are I also own the 1.06 and 1.10, so moving the 1.08 doesn't preclude me from still getting a rookie I like in that range.

My WR corps is now Adams, Juju, Julio, Evans and Anderson while my RB corps is now Mack, A Jones, Damian Williams, Penny and McKinnon. I also have Rodgers, Ryan, Kittle and Reed. As is I am going to be cutting Crowell and Westbrook, the latter of which I would like to keep and may try to move Ryan or Penny to make room for. 

Edited by barackdhouse

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1 hour ago, Matt's Eagles said:

What does everyone value Leonard Fournette at?  What are you paying fir or selling him for?

He's just a guy I don't want.  Won't give up anything significant for him and no one is giving him away.

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2 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

What does everyone value Leonard Fournette at?  What are you paying fir or selling him for?

 

43 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

He's just a guy I don't want.  Won't give up anything significant for him and no one is giving him away.

I own him in one spot, this particular team is pretty stacked so im not expecting any inquiries nor am i worried about holding. He could land in a few favorable places that boost his value (philly, oakland)he could also end up i a few spots that could be high upside (buf, nyj) 

 

In the spots i dont own him, im only casually persuing him. Id prolly give up a late 1 today. Anything earlier or more substantial i would prolly wait on his situation to develop more. 

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3 hours ago, Pwingles said:

 

I own him in one spot, this particular team is pretty stacked so im not expecting any inquiries nor am i worried about holding. He could land in a few favorable places that boost his value (philly, oakland)he could also end up i a few spots that could be high upside (buf, nyj) 

 

In the spots i dont own him, im only casually persuing him. Id prolly give up a late 1 today. Anything earlier or more substantial i would prolly wait on his situation to develop more. 

It sounds like they've reconciled, at least enough for him to stay in Jax next year.

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On 2/16/2019 at 6:33 AM, -OZ- said:

 

Completely agreed. The colts really don't need a new back. Mack does the typical RB work, Hynes I think is underrated. It's not exactly the bears backfield, but rather similar.  

If a back they think can be a stud falls they might grab him but RB sure shouldn't be a target. 

The Colts will take a WR in the first two rounds IMO.  They don't need to spend an early pick on a RB in a bad RB draft.

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14 hours ago, kutta said:

The problem is Kupp will most likely go back to playing the slot next year and Woods will go back outside. There’s 3 good WR’s there, and half of Woods year was only with two. Things could change a little next year.

I’d probably pay a late first but that’s it. I like Kupp more than Woods, and would pay an early first for him.

This doesn't hold up. Kupp played the first 8 games of the season, so Woods has a perfect 8 game split with and without Kupp.

With Kupp: 65 targets for 46/672/3
Without Kupp: 66 targets for 40/547/3

Kupp and Woods are only a year apart. Personally, I prefer Woods because he's more versatile whereas Kupp is primarily a slot guy.

17 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Does anyone have thoughts on Robert Woods value in picks?  He's so underrated, love having him on contenders but have him on a rebuild and can't get what I feel is fair value.  

I think a mid first and 2020 1st for Woods and a 2nd or 3rd sounds about right.  Is that way too much?

He might be worth that, but that's not his street value. I think you're doing good to fetch a mid-1st plus a 2020 2nd like someone else mentioned, but he's not old enough (26.9) that I'd move him for that even in a rebuild unless you are trying to tank this season.

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On 2/15/2019 at 7:12 PM, Zyphros said:

So I'm looking over one of my teams with the 1.01, and I'm having a hard time just forcing myself to offer it up to people for things like the 1.03 and a 2020 1st.  I should be comfortable with that but I'm just not.  Am I overvaluing the 1.01 or is that just about right or what?  

If I owned the 1.03, there's no way I'd do that trade. So yeah, you're probably overvaluing the pick. I hear what people are saying about waiting until the bitter end to trade the 1.01, and generally I agree that when trading draft picks waiting is best, but if you think you could pull that trade off, I'd do it now. 

The people saying not to do it are correct that there are a few scenarios that could feasibly happen in which the 1.01 might eclipse that kind of value... but FF is a game of probability and I don't like those odds. Personally, pre-draft 1.01 through ~1.06 looks pretty flat to me. For that to change, some of those top six prospects would have to test poorly and end up in bad situations and one or two would have to test well and end up in a near-perfect situation for "1.01 for 1.03 + 2020 1st" to make sense from the current 1.03 owner's side.

Hypothetically, what is even the best landing spot for a WR? Who could land where that the 1.01 would jump in value? As for RBs, that's a whole different story. KC or IND are the two prime landing spots, but if we're being honest, how much are we valuing situation over talent at that point? IMO, Barkley was in his own tier last year, then Chubb and Guice were in a 2nd tier. Neither Jacobs nor Montgomery belong in either one of those tiers. It's debatable if they'd belong in Michel's tier... so I have a hard time getting overly excited about one of those guys at 1.01 this year. Granted, maybe it's not fair to compare them to 2018's class.

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20 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Let's say the best news comes out, and kc trades a first and this year's second to draft a pass catching stud rb. How much more than 1.3 and a 2020 first would you need to make that deal?   

What other great things would increase the value of 1.1 besides KC drafting a rb early?  Which ones would increase its value over 1.3 and a 2020 first?  Maybe a wr separates from the pack (or maybe one gets drafted by the Pack). 

I think indy drafting a rb early would be really good. Maybe a stud rb in Oakland or the jets but meh. Maybe Jacobs or Montgomery just blows the doors off the combine?  Would that change your own valuation?

If none of those things happen, what do you think you'd get to trade down on draft day?  A second? 

Do an honest evaluation of what you're hoping for with 1.1 that you wouldn't get with 1.3, and figure out how likely that is. I'm guessing that there's only a few outcomes where you wouldn't trade for 1.3 and a first.

Would you trade a 2020 first for a random pick that could be a second (if there's no separation) or two firsts (if you think the max you'd get is 1.3 and two firsts if one of those outcomes happen)?  

How long do you think your window to trade is?  Until the combine?  Until draft day?  Until the guy with 1.3 starts paying attention? 

I think i'd rather have 1.3 and an extra 2020 pick if there's any pressure right now but i'd wait as long as possible to get the deal. 

 

 

30 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

If I owned the 1.03, there's no way I'd do that trade. So yeah, you're probably overvaluing the pick. I hear what people are saying about waiting until the bitter end to trade the 1.01, and generally I agree that when trading draft picks waiting is best, but if you think you could pull that trade off, I'd do it now. 

The people saying not to do it are correct that there are a few scenarios that could feasibly happen in which the 1.01 might eclipse that kind of value... but FF is a game of probability and I don't like those odds. Personally, pre-draft 1.01 through ~1.06 looks pretty flat to me. For that to change, some of those top six prospects would have to test poorly and end up in bad situations and one or two would have to test well and end up in a near-perfect situation for "1.01 for 1.03 + 2020 1st" to make sense from the current 1.03 owner's side.

Hypothetically, what is even the best landing spot for a WR? Who could land where that the 1.01 would jump in value? As for RBs, that's a whole different story. KC or IND are the two prime landing spots, but if we're being honest, how much are we valuing situation over talent at that point? IMO, Barkley was in his own tier last year, then Chubb and Guice were in a 2nd tier. Neither Jacobs nor Montgomery belong in either one of those tiers. It's debatable if they'd belong in Michel's tier... so I have a hard time getting overly excited about one of those guys at 1.01 this year. Granted, maybe it's not fair to compare them to 2018's class.

Almost identical thoughts. :hifive:

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

If I owned the 1.03, there's no way I'd do that trade. So yeah, you're probably overvaluing the pick. I hear what people are saying about waiting until the bitter end to trade the 1.01, and generally I agree that when trading draft picks waiting is best, but if you think you could pull that trade off, I'd do it now. 

The people saying not to do it are correct that there are a few scenarios that could feasibly happen in which the 1.01 might eclipse that kind of value... but FF is a game of probability and I don't like those odds. Personally, pre-draft 1.01 through ~1.06 looks pretty flat to me. For that to change, some of those top six prospects would have to test poorly and end up in bad situations and one or two would have to test well and end up in a near-perfect situation for "1.01 for 1.03 + 2020 1st" to make sense from the current 1.03 owner's side.

Hypothetically, what is even the best landing spot for a WR? Who could land where that the 1.01 would jump in value? As for RBs, that's a whole different story. KC or IND are the two prime landing spots, but if we're being honest, how much are we valuing situation over talent at that point? IMO, Barkley was in his own tier last year, then Chubb and Guice were in a 2nd tier. Neither Jacobs nor Montgomery belong in either one of those tiers. It's debatable if they'd belong in Michel's tier... so I have a hard time getting overly excited about one of those guys at 1.01 this year. Granted, maybe it's not fair to compare them to 2018's class.

I generally agree with what you're saying as a whole, but regarding the bolded what if Daniel Jeremiah and Matt Miller end up being right and we find out the NFL is a lot higher on Jacobs than we originally thought?

While unlikely, it's a plausible scenario that Jacobs tests well at the combine and the narrative of him being a top 10 pick starts to pick up more and more steam (it's already appearing in more mock drafts than just DJ/Miller now).  So if Jacobs goes in the top 10 to the Bucs and the next RB doesn't come off the board until pick 60+, is that really a situation over talent type scenario?  Even at their current values with Jacobs in the late 1st that's still an entire round ahead of the next RB in most mocks so certainly a pretty big perceived talent disparity there already.

Again I agree that this is not likely and the odds are higher that the gap between 1.1 vs. 1.3 ends up being less than a 2020 1st, but just throwing it out there that there is still more that can end up separating the two than purely situation.

Also regarding the question about landing spots for WRs, I think if Indy or Cleveland commit to a 1st round WR those are the landing spots that people would really fall in love with (again, particularly if they're investing a 1st round pick in them).

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As a holder of the 1.1 in a non-PPR league, my personal feeling/vibe is shaking out to be that the 1.01/1.02 should be Jacobs/Metcalf - whichever you prefer at which spot. Neither is a sure thing but each represents upside that I'm not sure I see with the rest.

Ergo, it wouldn't be quick to trade out of that spot. I'm not generally an overthinker.

 

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15 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

What does everyone value Leonard Fournette at?  What are you paying fir or selling him for?

I guess it's just me but I think he will rebound and think health and horrendous offense have been his downfall. 

If he should return to Jacksonville I'm going to be a little more down on him then if he gets out  but saying that some of the issues in Jacksonville should improve. The OL has talent but suffered to many injuries last year and of course I expect an upgrade at QB but not high on Defillipo as it relates to Fournette.

Somewhat timely topic for me because I got a quality offer involving Fournette last night, with someone wanting him, and I'm working on it right now. Once that deal is done, one way or the other, I'll share more details.

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2 hours ago, bostonfred said:

 

Almost identical thoughts. :hifive:

True, I guess the only difference is that I wouldn't wait if I could pull that deal. I fear that post-NFL draft the 1.03/1.04 owner might realize how small the value gap is between them and 1.01. Right now things are ambiguous so it is possible they might be down to make that deal.

I honestly can't say I feel strongly about how to order Harry, Metcalf, Butler, Harmon, AJ Brown, Jacobs, and Montgomery. At least two of them will land in spots that don't look good for year 1 and they'll fall out of favor. But I think picks 1-5 will still be pretty strong looking. Not to mention there will be a riser thanks to the combine or the draft. All in all, I am guessing the gap between 1.01 and 1.03/1.04 get smaller as time goes on... but definitely recognize there's risk it goes the other way. But I'd play the odds and take 1.03/1.04 + 2020 1st if I had that option now. I know the OP was just talking about throwing the offer out - we don't know if anyone would accept.

This is all just a thought experiment for me, though. I don't have the 1.01 in any leagues.

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Just an observation on the  Woods vs Kupp conversation.

Woods was basically the same guy with or without Kupp, from a fantasy scoring perspective anyway. Almost no difference.

I think a disconnect is occuring with how you choose to use the Denver game when analyzing Kupp's PPG production, a game he played about 1/3rd of the snaps. If you use that game his production basically is on par with Woods but throwing out that one game puts Kupp into the 19 PPG range so we see some real separation. I personally either throw that game out entirely or look at it as a 1/3rd of a game so for me I got Kupp as an 18.42-19.12 PPG producer, a solid few points per game above Woods.

To each their own how they want to break down per game production, just pointing out why some people view their per game production as fairly equal and some like myself don't.

I'm guilty of underrating Woods, but I'd absolutely prefer Kupp myself and solidly so, more then the numbers probably suggest so call it a feeling or whatever but easier for me  to see the Goff/Kupp connection being a longer term thing.

 

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21 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

This is the line of thinking I don't understand.  Woods was the WR 11 when Kupp went down, and finished as the WR 11.  He was the same guy with or without him.

They're only a year apart in age.  I'd much rather have the guy not rehabbing an ACL.  Somehow Kupp is sexier though.

Kupp was WR 4 if you remove his injury games. 

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I generally agree with what you're saying as a whole, but regarding the bolded what if Daniel Jeremiah and Matt Miller end up being right and we find out the NFL is a lot higher on Jacobs than we originally thought?

While unlikely, it's a plausible scenario that Jacobs tests well at the combine and the narrative of him being a top 10 pick starts to pick up more and more steam (it's already appearing in more mock drafts than just DJ/Miller now).  So if Jacobs goes in the top 10 to the Bucs and the next RB doesn't come off the board until pick 60+, is that really a situation over talent type scenario?  Even at their current values with Jacobs in the late 1st that's still an entire round ahead of the next RB in most mocks so certainly a pretty big perceived talent disparity there already.

Again I agree that this is not likely and the odds are higher that the gap between 1.1 vs. 1.3 ends up being less than a 2020 1st, but just throwing it out there that there is still more that can end up separating the two than purely situation.

Also regarding the question about landing spots for WRs, I think if Indy or Cleveland commit to a 1st round WR those are the landing spots that people would really fall in love with (again, particularly if they're investing a 1st round pick in them).

That's a lot of "ifs" but I like it, so I'll play. First, requisite devil's advocate statement: if he's drafted in the top 10 that doesn't mean the NFL likes him more than we thought, just one team. The Bucs pick 1.05, so that's pretty steep. If he were to go top 5 to a Bruce Arians' offense, then yes, 1.01 probably just became more valuable and not based on situation alone. I think it is far more likely he goes to Buffalo if he goes top 10 at all. I also gotta point out it's quite an assumption that the next RB is 60 picks later. But if Jacobs goes to Buffalo at 10 and Montgomery goes to Oakland at 1.27 or KC in the 2nd, I'm not sure there's a big value gap on draft day. 

Similarly, I agree with you about IND and CLE being the two locations most likely to generate WR hype. If two big names go there early and Jacobs goes top 10, I still don't think we're looking at a big value gap from 1.01 to 1.03. 

And speaking of WRs, there are a lot of openings, particularly in the AFC (such as Jets, Dolphins, Raiders). If guys like Harry or Metcalf test well and get drafted high, I think their value will survive even if they end up with a "lesser" starting job than CLE/IND.

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After seeing how high Damien Williams was in the Mizelle ADP,  anyone able to get anything approaching that value for him?  I put him on the block, and best offer that I've gotten was Robert Foster.  I think I'm higher on Foster than most, but I'm not sure I've trusted a BUF WR since Andre Reed. Countered for James Washington, but that was rejected.

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56 minutes ago, kutta said:

Kupp was WR 4 if you remove his injury games. 

People projecting Kupp based on 7 games when he had 6 TDs are being more than a little optimistic. He was not going to finish the year with 14 TDs. His 2018 ppg numbers are almost certainly a career high. His longest TD as a rookie was 18 yards. He had TDs of 70 yards, 53 yards, and 41 yards last year. That's a lot of long TDs for a relatively slow guy.

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35 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

People projecting Kupp based on 7 games when he had 6 TDs are being more than a little optimistic. He was not going to finish the year with 14 TDs. His 2018 ppg numbers are almost certainly a career high. His longest TD as a rookie was 18 yards. He had TDs of 70 yards, 53 yards, and 41 yards last year. That's a lot of long TDs for a relatively slow guy.

My thoughts exactly.  Not to mention , he wasn't a terribly athletic WR to begin with.  Now he has to rehab his way back and it's no guarantee he regains his pre-injury form.  I don't usually go overboard worrying about ACLs (i.e. Guice, Fuller), but if athleticism was already lacking, it could be a huge problem if he loses anything off his fastball.

His trade value doesn't seem to account for this reality and I'd be shopping if I owned him anywhere.

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6 hours ago, menobrown said:

Somewhat timely topic for me because I got a quality offer involving Fournette last night, with someone wanting him, and I'm working on it right now. Once that deal is done, one way or the other, I'll share more details.

Update to this and I posted this trade in the trade thread but I did a deal involving Fournette today but other players were involved so hard to pinpoint exactly his value in the trade.   This is FFPC and I gave gave up Corey Davis as well for basically Kelce, a fairly attractive 2020#1 and two pick bump in this years draft to get me from pick 9 to pick7. 

I do know that Fournette has been apple of that owners eye for awhile and I can only guess but I think if I had wanted to keep Corey I could have straight turned Fournette into Kelce.

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

 His longest TD as a rookie was 18 yards. He had TDs of 70 yards, 53 yards, and 41 yards last year. That's a lot of long TDs for a relatively slow guy.

Not necessarily. It's a lot of long TDs for a slow replacement level WR. If you believe he is a good WR, it doesn't matter. Great players who timed slow still get big plays. You could make a parallel to Riley Cooper in Chip Kelly's offense if you want, but if you believe he is closer to Boldin than Cooper then one might expect big plays to continue.

 

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11 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

Not necessarily. It's a lot of long TDs for a slow replacement level WR. If you believe he is a good WR, it doesn't matter. Great players who timed slow still get big plays. You could make a parallel to Riley Cooper in Chip Kelly's offense if you want, but if you believe he is closer to Boldin than Cooper then one might expect big plays to continue.

No. It's actually a lot of long TDs for anyone, but especially for a slow guy. Remember, we're talking about ~7.5 games and three TDs over 40 yards. That's uncommon for anyone. So people who are trying to get hyped about Kupp's PPG need to take a step back. The TD rate and length of those TDs are both bound to return to earth. Woods' stats are much more likely to be reproduced than Kupp's. 

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11 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

No. It's actually a lot of long TDs for anyone, but especially for a slow guy. Remember, we're talking about ~7.5 games and three TDs over 40 yards. That's uncommon for anyone. So people who are trying to get hyped about Kupp's PPG need to take a step back. The TD rate and length of those TDs are both bound to return to earth. Woods' stats are much more likely to be reproduced than Kupp's. 

^This is a great point.

Mizelle adp has Kupp going at 4.9 in start ups and Will Fuller at 6.12.  What is so different about these guys? Both coming off ACLs, Fuller a year younger, both in explosive offenses, both have made a lot of big play TDs, but one is an elite athlete for the position and the other is average at best.  I've offered Fuller in packages a lot and no one wants him at all.  

I don't know if I'd even trade Fuller straight up for him.  That disparity is nuts.

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14 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

No. It's actually a lot of long TDs for anyone, but especially for a slow guy. Remember, we're talking about ~7.5 games and three TDs over 40 yards. That's uncommon for anyone. So people who are trying to get hyped about Kupp's PPG need to take a step back. The TD rate and length of those TDs are both bound to return to earth. Woods' stats are much more likely to be reproduced than Kupp's. 

I agree a rate of 12 TDs per season is high for anyone (regardless of length), and TD production is a high source of randomness in fantasy.  I would disagree Kupp is priced high based on the 7.5 game sample size or inflation from a couple plays. His ADP is after Woods and beside Sutton and Moore. He is priced near Landry, a very post-hype player who finished WR27 last year. If we're looking for players priced near their cap, I think there's better candidates.

3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Mizelle adp has Kupp going at 4.9 in start ups

This is not the going rate for a 3rd year player who was performing as a top 5 WR in 2018. This is the going rate for a WR who might become a low WR1.

 

 

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8 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

I agree a rate of 12 TDs per season is high for anyone (regardless of length), and TD production is a high source of randomness in fantasy.  I would disagree Kupp is priced high based on the 7.5 game sample size or inflation from a couple plays. His ADP is after Woods and beside Sutton and Moore. He is priced near Landry, a very post-hype player who finished WR27 last year. If we're looking for players priced near their cap, I think there's better candidates.

This is not the going rate for a 3rd year player who was performing as a top 5 WR in 2018. This is the going rate for a WR who might become a low WR1.

You are correct that his ADP is not overpriced. I was specifically talking about people in here saying Kupp is a better asset than Woods and basing that opinion on Kupp's 2018 PPG. You don't have to dig very deep to see why his 2018 PPG is not solid ground to stand on.

Of the players mentioned in your post, I'd personally rank them Moore, Woods, Kupp, Landry, Sutton. 

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12 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Mizelle adp has Kupp going at 4.9 in start ups and Will Fuller at 6.12.  What is so different about these guys? Both coming off ACLs, Fuller a year younger, both in explosive offenses, both have made a lot of big play TDs, but one is an elite athlete for the position and the other is average at best.  I've offered Fuller in packages a lot and no one wants him at all.  

I don't know if I'd even trade Fuller straight up for him.  That disparity is nuts.

I hate to tell you this, but I really don't like Fuller at all, so I'd be trying to package him if I was you, too. Fuller has a low BMI, questionable hands, and can't stay healthy. But he's somehow got trade value judging by his startup ADP, so I'd be looking to cash out. Maybe this isn't fair, but I can't help but think Will Fuller is an injury prone version of Ted Ginn. 

And just looking short term:
McVay >> O'Brien
Goff > Watson

Sorry for the negative take on Fuller. Just my :2cents:. I've been wrong before, though.

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15 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

^This is a great point.

Mizelle adp has Kupp going at 4.9 in start ups and Will Fuller at 6.12.  What is so different about these guys? Both coming off ACLs, Fuller a year younger, both in explosive offenses, both have made a lot of big play TDs, but one is an elite athlete for the position and the other is average at best.  I've offered Fuller in packages a lot and no one wants him at all.  

I don't know if I'd even trade Fuller straight up for him.  That disparity is nuts.

In the last 2 years I have been moving away from the one-trick pony type of WR prospects.  Fuller falls into this category for me.  When he's on, he's amazing and can win a game for you by himself, but I think he's been relegated to the 3rd WR option on his own team.  Keke Coutee has been a Hoover for targets and catches when he's on the field, and he's special at running routes. 

Same thing with Kupp, he's a slot guy who will provide a consistent floor, and has surprising red zone value to boot.

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I hate to tell you this, but I really don't like Fuller at all, so I'd be trying to package him if I was you, too. Fuller has a low BMI, questionable hands, and can't stay healthy. But he's somehow got trade value judging by his startup ADP, so I'd be looking to cash out. Maybe this isn't fair, but I can't help but think Will Fuller is an injury prone version of Ted Ginn. 

And just looking short term:
McVay >> O'Brien
Goff > Watson

Sorry for the negative take on Fuller. Just my :2cents:. I've been wrong before, though.

My comment is more aimed at saying Kupp is overrated than Fuller is underrated.  I like him just fine at 6.12 and probably a touch higher.  He's going behind guys like Alshon, Watkins, Sutton, Lockett, and A-Rob.  I'm not saying he's definitely better than each of those guys, but I certainly prefer him at least a few.

O'Brien is clearly no McVay, but that hasn't stopped Houston from being a formidable passing offense when their major pieces have been playing together.  And I'll take Watson over Goff anyday.

Let's take a look at the numbers though.  Fuller has played 11 games with Watson; compare that to Kupp's last 11 games.  I'll even throw out the two games he couldn't finish due to injury, which for whatever reason we're supposed to ignore.

A: 21.9, 21.2, 17.2, 32.5, 25.3, 21.1, 14.9, 3.5, 5.3, 12.8, 23.4         AVG: 18.10

B: 22.6, 12.8, 24.8, 5.1, 8.5, 17.8, 12.3, 16.8, 37.2, 21, 19.9             AVG: 18.98

One has 5 20 point games, the other has 4.  They both have a 30 point game.  They both have two single digit games.  They both have ACL recoveries ahead of them.  They both play in high quality offenses with very good QBs.  One is turning 26, the other 25.  

Basically, they're the same.  

How does this equate to 27 spots of ADP and entirely bipolar trade value?

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6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

In the last 2 years I have been moving away from the one-trick pony type of WR prospects.  Fuller falls into this category for me.  When he's on, he's amazing and can win a game for you by himself, but I think he's been relegated to the 3rd WR option on his own team.  Keke Coutee has been a Hoover for targets and catches when he's on the field, and he's special at running routes. 

Same thing with Kupp, he's a slot guy who will provide a consistent floor, and has surprising red zone value to boot.

That's the friggin point

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6 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

That's the friggin point

Pretty sure he was equatng Kupp to Coutee, not Fuller.

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9 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Pretty sure he was equatng Kupp to Coutee, not Fuller.

Yes, this.  I apologize to @skinfanjon if that was unclear.  

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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What's the feeling on Chris Carson? Penny showed just enough to make me cautious about Carson.

I wouldn't want to rely on him.  We'll know what we have with Penny following the 2019 season.  I anticipate RBBC.

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5 minutes ago, tkrull said:

I wouldn't want to rely on him.  We'll know what we have with Penny following the 2019 season.  I anticipate RBBC.

Worth a mid 2nd?

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Where are people with Ronald Jones ? I’ve been offered 2.10 this year for him. I’m tempted but also Arians to the Bucks makes me stop for pause. 

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55 minutes ago, TartanLion said:

Where are people with Ronald Jones ? I’ve been offered 2.10 this year for him. I’m tempted but also Arians to the Bucks makes me stop for pause. 

I traded WR Robert Foster straight up for him. Figured it was worth the risk with Jones being only 21 and a new coach coming in. 

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3 hours ago, TartanLion said:

Where are people with Ronald Jones ? I’ve been offered 2.10 this year for him. I’m tempted but also Arians to the Bucks makes me stop for pause. 

I would probably take a flier on him for that price, but I wouldn't pay much more than that.  2.10 is risky, just like Jones, so IMO that's about his value at this point.

ETA - I initially read your question wrong.  I still think it's about his value so I would be fine with taking the pick if you want to ditch Jones.  What I might look to do instead is ask for a 2020 2nd that would hopefully be earlier in the round.  That way you can potentially get an earlier pick and you open up a roster spot for this year (if that's of value to you like it is for me in some leagues).

Edited by RC94
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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

D'onta Forman in terms of rookie picks. Worth giving up a 3rd?

Achilles injuries normally scare me off forever.

I'm skeptical Foreman ever makes it back, but you could do worse for a 3rd.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

D'onta Forman in terms of rookie picks. Worth giving up a 3rd?

Achilles injuries normally scare me off forever.

I think they add some comp to that backfield, if not a runaway new starter, but if I had roster space I'd take a shot for a third.

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6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

D'onta Forman in terms of rookie picks. Worth giving up a 3rd?

Achilles injuries normally scare me off forever.

Loved the talent but the injury is worrisome.  That along with Bell being linked there might be bad things to come.  You'd have to pay me more than a 3rd to get him off my hands though since I like the guy, and as of now, I don't see how he doesn't carve out at least 30% of that backfield's touches to rehabilitate his value. 

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