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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What's the feeling on Chris Carson? Penny showed just enough to make me cautious about Carson.

I wouldn't want to rely on him.  We'll know what we have with Penny following the 2019 season.  I anticipate RBBC.

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5 minutes ago, tkrull said:

I wouldn't want to rely on him.  We'll know what we have with Penny following the 2019 season.  I anticipate RBBC.

Worth a mid 2nd?

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Where are people with Ronald Jones ? I’ve been offered 2.10 this year for him. I’m tempted but also Arians to the Bucks makes me stop for pause. 

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55 minutes ago, TartanLion said:

Where are people with Ronald Jones ? I’ve been offered 2.10 this year for him. I’m tempted but also Arians to the Bucks makes me stop for pause. 

I traded WR Robert Foster straight up for him. Figured it was worth the risk with Jones being only 21 and a new coach coming in. 

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3 hours ago, TartanLion said:

Where are people with Ronald Jones ? I’ve been offered 2.10 this year for him. I’m tempted but also Arians to the Bucks makes me stop for pause. 

I would probably take a flier on him for that price, but I wouldn't pay much more than that.  2.10 is risky, just like Jones, so IMO that's about his value at this point.

ETA - I initially read your question wrong.  I still think it's about his value so I would be fine with taking the pick if you want to ditch Jones.  What I might look to do instead is ask for a 2020 2nd that would hopefully be earlier in the round.  That way you can potentially get an earlier pick and you open up a roster spot for this year (if that's of value to you like it is for me in some leagues).

Edited by RC94
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D'onta Forman in terms of rookie picks. Worth giving up a 3rd?

Achilles injuries normally scare me off forever.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

D'onta Forman in terms of rookie picks. Worth giving up a 3rd?

Achilles injuries normally scare me off forever.

I'm skeptical Foreman ever makes it back, but you could do worse for a 3rd.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

D'onta Forman in terms of rookie picks. Worth giving up a 3rd?

Achilles injuries normally scare me off forever.

I think they add some comp to that backfield, if not a runaway new starter, but if I had roster space I'd take a shot for a third.

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6 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

D'onta Forman in terms of rookie picks. Worth giving up a 3rd?

Achilles injuries normally scare me off forever.

Loved the talent but the injury is worrisome.  That along with Bell being linked there might be bad things to come.  You'd have to pay me more than a 3rd to get him off my hands though since I like the guy, and as of now, I don't see how he doesn't carve out at least 30% of that backfield's touches to rehabilitate his value. 

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I'm wading into Superflex for the first time this season.  Does anyone have a feel for how the Dynasty Trade Value Chart by @Dan Hindery might look in Superflex?  Multiply QB scores by 5.0?

QB scores multiplied by 5.0:

  1. Patrick Mahomes II125
  2. Saquon Barkley62
  3. (tie for 3rd) Christian McCaffrey55
  4. (tie for 3rd) Ezekiel Elliott55
  5. Todd Gurley52
  6. (tie for 6th) Deshaun Watson50
  7. (tie for 6th) Andrew Luck50
  8. (tie for 6th) Alvin Kamara50
  9. DeAndre Hopkins46
  10. JuJu Smith-Schuster42
  11. (tie for 11th) Baker Mayfield40
  12. (tie for 11th) Tyreek Hill40
  13. (tie for 11th) Michael Thomas40
  14. Odell Beckham Jr39
  15. Davante Adams38
  16. Aaron Rodgers35
  17. (tie for 17th) Nick Chubb33
  18. (tie for 17th) Mike Evans33
  19. (tie for 19th) Joe Mixon32
  20. (tie for 19th) Melvin Gordon III32
  21. (tie for 21st) Russell Wilson30
  22. (tie for 21st) Lamar Jackson30
  23. (tie for 21st) Carson Wentz30
  24. Keenan Allen28
  25. (tie for 25th) Julio Jones26
  26. (tie for 25th) Antonio Brown26
  27. (tie for 27th) Cam Newton25
  28. (tie for 27th) Stefon Diggs25
  29. (tie for 29th) David Johnson24
  30. (tie for 29th) Le'Veon Bell24
  31. (tie for 29th) Dalvin Cook24
  32. (tie for 29th) Kerryon Johnson24
  33. (tie for 29th) James Conner24
  34. (tie for 29th) Amari Cooper24
  35. Kenny Golladay23
  36. Brandin Cooks22

What would you do to rookie draft pick values?  Multiply by 1.25?

Edited by Tick

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11 minutes ago, Tick said:

I'm wading into Superflex for the first time this season.  Does anyone have a feel for how the Dynasty Trade Value Chart by @Dan Hindery might look in Superflex?  Multiply QB scores by 5.0?

QB scores multiplied by 5.0:

  1. Patrick Mahomes II125
  2. Saquon Barkley62
  3. (tie for 3rd) Christian McCaffrey55
  4. (tie for 3rd) Ezekiel Elliott55
  5. Todd Gurley52
  6. (tie for 6th) Deshaun Watson50
  7. (tie for 6th) Andrew Luck50
  8. (tie for 6th) Alvin Kamara50
  9. DeAndre Hopkins46
  10. JuJu Smith-Schuster42
  11. (tie for 11th) Baker Mayfield40
  12. (tie for 11th) Tyreek Hill40
  13. (tie for 11th) Michael Thomas40
  14. Odell Beckham Jr39
  15. Davante Adams38
  16. Aaron Rodgers35
  17. (tie for 17th) Nick Chubb33
  18. (tie for 17th) Mike Evans33
  19. (tie for 19th) Joe Mixon32
  20. (tie for 19th) Melvin Gordon III32
  21. (tie for 21st) Russell Wilson30
  22. (tie for 21st) Lamar Jackson30
  23. (tie for 21st) Carson Wentz30
  24. Keenan Allen28
  25. (tie for 25th) Julio Jones26
  26. (tie for 25th) Antonio Brown26
  27. (tie for 27th) Cam Newton25
  28. (tie for 27th) Stefon Diggs25
  29. (tie for 29th) David Johnson24
  30. (tie for 29th) Le'Veon Bell24
  31. (tie for 29th) Dalvin Cook24
  32. (tie for 29th) Kerryon Johnson24
  33. (tie for 29th) James Conner24
  34. (tie for 29th) Amari Cooper24
  35. Kenny Golladay23
  36. Brandin Cooks22

What would you do to rookie draft pick values?  Multiply by 1.25?

Not familiar with the chart, and this is obviously dependent on number of teams, other lineup requirements, and scoring system. 

That said, I have played in a Super Flex dynasty for several years. QBs are absolute gold in that league. The QB values in your post do not look high enough. I would expect all of Rodgers, Wilson, and Wentz to be top 15 and Mayfield and Watson to be top 5. 

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1 hour ago, Tick said:

I'm wading into Superflex for the first time this season.  Does anyone have a feel for how the Dynasty Trade Value Chart by @Dan Hindery might look in Superflex?  Multiply QB scores by 5.0?

QB scores multiplied by 5.0:

  1. Patrick Mahomes II125
  2. Saquon Barkley62
  3. (tie for 3rd) Christian McCaffrey55
  4. (tie for 3rd) Ezekiel Elliott55
  5. Todd Gurley52
  6. (tie for 6th) Deshaun Watson50
  7. (tie for 6th) Andrew Luck50
  8. (tie for 6th) Alvin Kamara50
  9. DeAndre Hopkins46
  10. JuJu Smith-Schuster42
  11. (tie for 11th) Baker Mayfield40
  12. (tie for 11th) Tyreek Hill40
  13. (tie for 11th) Michael Thomas40
  14. Odell Beckham Jr39
  15. Davante Adams38
  16. Aaron Rodgers35
  17. (tie for 17th) Nick Chubb33
  18. (tie for 17th) Mike Evans33
  19. (tie for 19th) Joe Mixon32
  20. (tie for 19th) Melvin Gordon III32
  21. (tie for 21st) Russell Wilson30
  22. (tie for 21st) Lamar Jackson30
  23. (tie for 21st) Carson Wentz30
  24. Keenan Allen28
  25. (tie for 25th) Julio Jones26
  26. (tie for 25th) Antonio Brown26
  27. (tie for 27th) Cam Newton25
  28. (tie for 27th) Stefon Diggs25
  29. (tie for 29th) David Johnson24
  30. (tie for 29th) Le'Veon Bell24
  31. (tie for 29th) Dalvin Cook24
  32. (tie for 29th) Kerryon Johnson24
  33. (tie for 29th) James Conner24
  34. (tie for 29th) Amari Cooper24
  35. Kenny Golladay23
  36. Brandin Cooks22

What would you do to rookie draft pick values?  Multiply by 1.25?

Well Hindery's system is (loosely) based on how many points above replacement a given player will give you, multiplied by how many years that player may yield that advantage. So I don't think multiplying by 5 is the way to go. Since a superflex QB replacement is going to be QB#25 (in a 12 team league) at best, and probably much worse than that since I would assume most owners carry more than 2 starting QBs, it is a much higher advantage that someone like Mahomes will hold. 5 times more? Probably not. Maybe adding a number to all the QBs makes more sense than multiplying.

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

Well Hindery's system is (loosely) based on how many points above replacement a given player will give you, multiplied by how many years that player may yield that advantage. So I don't think multiplying by 5 is the way to go. Since a superflex QB replacement is going to be QB#25 (in a 12 team league) at best, and probably much worse than that since I would assume most owners carry more than 2 starting QBs, it is a much higher advantage that someone like Mahomes will hold. 5 times more? Probably not. Maybe adding a number to all the QBs makes more sense than multiplying.

By loosely, I mean my bad description of his system, not the system itself. I could be wrong about it representing points above replacement, it might be points above average starter at the position.

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2 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Not familiar with the chart, and this is obviously dependent on number of teams, other lineup requirements, and scoring system. 

That said, I have played in a Super Flex dynasty for several years. QBs are absolute gold in that league. The QB values in your post do not look high enough. I would expect all of Rodgers, Wilson, and Wentz to be top 15 and Mayfield and Watson to be top 5. 

Interesting - from the free top 10 lists at DLF, I see:

ADP: Mahomes 3, no other QBs in top 10

Rankings: Mahomes 2, Luck 8, Wilson 9

It makes me wonder if their ADP filter is off a bit, but it also diverges from your league experience.  I guess I'll have to see how the draft unfolds, but I'll keep poking around to get more reference points.

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4 minutes ago, Tick said:

 but I'll keep poking around to get more reference points.

Some people have called me out on this before as being foolish but I don't care. I'm someone who does think you can take redraft data, and from that use your mind and factor in things such as age/situation to start to get a basic idea of current value. Maybe you think that's crazy, but if not maybe this will help you. It's a DE/Best Ball format so that in general pushes QB's up a little and it's of course redraft but to me I pay zero attention to mocks, give me real drafts and I'll work out dynasty vs redraft difference on my own.

Here is ADP date of FFPC superflex leagues: Current FFPC ADP superflex redraft

 

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11 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

That said, I have played in a Super Flex dynasty for several years. QBs are absolute gold in that league. The QB values in your post do not look high enough. I would expect all of Rodgers, Wilson, and Wentz to be top 15 and Mayfield and Watson to be top 5. 

I agree. If you believe the league will be around a long time, you have to go QB early and figure the rest out later. A team with 2 great QB is always competitive, and starting QBs have higher and more stable trade value. That may not show in mocks, but I think it's the right strategy.

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8 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

I agree. If you believe the league will be around a long time, you have to go QB early and figure the rest out later. A team with 2 great QB is always competitive, and starting QBs have higher and more stable trade value. That may not show in mocks, but I think it's the right strategy.

Agree. The league I mentioned is a 10 team, non-PPR league with 22 man rosters. Passing TDs are 6 points, and we get 0.5 points per rushing/receiving first down; otherwise everything is fairly standard about the scoring.

It started in 2010, and 10 QBs were drafted in the top 22 picks. But that was in 2010, and it was the first Superflex league any of the owners had played in... if we were to redraft today, I think it would probably be even more QB heavy early.

I was one of two teams to go QB-QB in the first two rounds, and my team is the only one in the league that has made the playoffs every season. The other team has missed the playoffs a couple times but also has 2 championships.

Today, there are 41 QBs rostered. In the 2018 rookie draft, 5 QBs were drafted within the first 8 picks. In the 2017 rookie draft, 4 QBs were drafted within the first 10 picks.

This league is just one data point, but it is the only one I have, and I would expect going QB-QB early to be a very successful strategy if other starting lineup requirements and scoring system are fairly normal.

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Anyone traded away James Conner recently ? I’m thinking of offering him out while his value is high. Think there may be a downturn going forward - Samuels might get more work, losing offensive weapons most likely, Steelers seem like there’s some disarray just now. 

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1 hour ago, TartanLion said:

Anyone traded away James Conner recently ? I’m thinking of offering him out while his value is high. Think there may be a downturn going forward - Samuels might get more work, losing offensive weapons most likely, Steelers seem like there’s some disarray just now. 

I've made some offers for him, probably a little light though.  I offered some Corey Davis for him and I offered Robert Woods.  Both were a no go.  

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@skinfanjon

@FF Ninja

Sorry for letting the Kupp/Woods thing slide.

I pretty much agree with @menobrown's point about the Kupp/Goff connection - it does seem like those two are going to be together for a long time, almost like the Jordy/Rodgers connection. So it's not just the stats (which also work out in Kupp's favor), but also the intangibles that we've heard about (Goff and Kupp being friends, Kupp being the security blanket, etc.).

Yes, Woods is only one year older. But he's been in the league six years, Kupp has been in for two years. Why can't we assume Kupp will continue to improve? 

Even including the game where Kupp was hurt very early, he still outscored both Woods and Cooks on a per-game basis. If you remove the one game he left very early, Kupp outscored Woods by almost 3 points per game. If you remove the other game he got hurt, Kupp outscored Woods by 4.2 PPG (which puts him rigth below Adams, Brown, and Hopkins as the number 4 WR). That's significant, no matter what you want to say about his long TD's. A second year WR scoring at the same pace as those three guys is actually pretty incredible.

And yes, Kupp had a huge 37 point game. But Woods had a huge game too (33), so that doesn't really skew the numbers. 

My point about Woods' numbers suffering a bit when Kupp comes back is more making the point that Kupp will retake over the slot duties, and Woods will be sharing with Cooks on the outside. I agree that Woods' numbers were very similar with and without Kupp, but Kupp's numbers are more certain to remain consistent, IMO. And again, all three of those guys are going to score, and they will all most likely be similar on a PPG basis. But if I had to put money on who was going to be the top dog in that offense for the next 4-5 years, it would be Kupp without a doubt.

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Any thoughts on buying TE Chris Herndon in a TE premium league. What value have you guys seen? 

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33 minutes ago, Tejas said:

Any thoughts on buying TE Chris Herndon in a TE premium league. What value have you guys seen? 

I was not looking to trade him but someone offered me 2.3 and Edelman in FFPC and I took it, if that gives you some kind of idea.

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33 minutes ago, Tejas said:

Any thoughts on buying TE Chris Herndon in a TE premium league. What value have you guys seen? 

he is a decent prospect for sure but problem is most of his owners think so and aren't selling. If you could buy him with pick somewhere between 2.1 and say 2.6 in FFPC I would but I suspect most of his owners want a later 1st

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5 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I was not looking to trade him but someone offered me 2.3 and Edelman in FFPC and I took it, if that gives you some kind of idea.

that seems like an easy accept for you, I would've taken that as well

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4 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I've made some offers for him, probably a little light though.  I offered some Corey Davis for him and I offered Robert Woods.  Both were a no go.  

Yeah I’d say Coris Davis seems way off, Woods a lot closer maybe with a 2nd round pick thrown or something of that ilk 

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20 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I was not looking to trade him but someone offered me 2.3 and Edelman in FFPC and I took it, if that gives you some kind of idea.

That’s a pretty solid offer. Didn’t realize heading into the last week of the regular season, Herndon was rated as the 5th best TE. 

1. Kittle: 88.4

2. Travis Kelce: 88.3

3. Jared Cook: 77.3

4. Zach Ertz: 77.2

5. Chris Herndon: 75.9

I really like his potential with Darnold, just hoping Gase doesn’t stunt their growth. 

 

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28 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

he is a decent prospect for sure but problem is most of his owners think so and aren't selling. If you could buy him with pick somewhere between 2.1 and say 2.6 in FFPC I would but I suspect most of his owners want a later 1st

I’m conflicted, a part of me wants to over-pay to secure him prior to a value spike next season. 

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29 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

that seems like an easy accept for you, I would've taken that as well

Maybe should have been but I hated giving up a young solid looking prospect who I envision growing with Darnold for a 33 year old  WR and pick 15 when I already had two #1's and a second on a fairly deep roster so not of room for that many fliers. In the end I felt that Edelman projected as my WR2 and even if I was just left with Colt's duo (Ebron/Doyle) at TE that the depth of this years TE class would enable me to add a solid prospect if I so wanted with that pick 2.3.

Since I did that trade I acquired Kelce and part of that deal involved me giving up my WR3(Corey Davis), plus I might get Gronk back who I kind of wrote off so I'd be down right now if I'd have passed on that trade but accepting it at the time(this was about when trading open) was not as easy for me as it probably should have been.

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31 minutes ago, Tejas said:

 

I really like his potential with Darnold, just hoping Gase doesn’t stunt their growth. 

 

I was feeling pretty good about my shares of Herndon... until this.

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4 hours ago, kutta said:

@skinfanjon

@FF Ninja

Sorry for letting the Kupp/Woods thing slide.

I pretty much agree with @menobrown's point about the Kupp/Goff connection - it does seem like those two are going to be together for a long time, almost like the Jordy/Rodgers connection. So it's not just the stats (which also work out in Kupp's favor), but also the intangibles that we've heard about (Goff and Kupp being friends, Kupp being the security blanket, etc.).

Yes, Woods is only one year older. But he's been in the league six years, Kupp has been in for two years. Why can't we assume Kupp will continue to improve? 

Even including the game where Kupp was hurt very early, he still outscored both Woods and Cooks on a per-game basis. If you remove the one game he left very early, Kupp outscored Woods by almost 3 points per game. If you remove the other game he got hurt, Kupp outscored Woods by 4.2 PPG (which puts him rigth below Adams, Brown, and Hopkins as the number 4 WR). That's significant, no matter what you want to say about his long TD's. A second year WR scoring at the same pace as those three guys is actually pretty incredible.

And yes, Kupp had a huge 37 point game. But Woods had a huge game too (33), so that doesn't really skew the numbers. 

My point about Woods' numbers suffering a bit when Kupp comes back is more making the point that Kupp will retake over the slot duties, and Woods will be sharing with Cooks on the outside. I agree that Woods' numbers were very similar with and without Kupp, but Kupp's numbers are more certain to remain consistent, IMO. And again, all three of those guys are going to score, and they will all most likely be similar on a PPG basis. But if I had to put money on who was going to be the top dog in that offense for the next 4-5 years, it would be Kupp without a doubt.

But it does skew the numbers quite a bit.  A 33 pt game across a 16 game schedule is not as huge as a 37 pt game across a 6 game schedule.

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5 hours ago, kutta said:

@skinfanjon

@FF Ninja

Sorry for letting the Kupp/Woods thing slide.

I pretty much agree with @menobrown's point about the Kupp/Goff connection - it does seem like those two are going to be together for a long time, almost like the Jordy/Rodgers connection. So it's not just the stats (which also work out in Kupp's favor), but also the intangibles that we've heard about (Goff and Kupp being friends, Kupp being the security blanket, etc.).

Yes, Woods is only one year older. But he's been in the league six years, Kupp has been in for two years. Why can't we assume Kupp will continue to improve? 

Even including the game where Kupp was hurt very early, he still outscored both Woods and Cooks on a per-game basis. If you remove the one game he left very early, Kupp outscored Woods by almost 3 points per game. If you remove the other game he got hurt, Kupp outscored Woods by 4.2 PPG (which puts him rigth below Adams, Brown, and Hopkins as the number 4 WR). That's significant, no matter what you want to say about his long TD's. A second year WR scoring at the same pace as those three guys is actually pretty incredible.

And yes, Kupp had a huge 37 point game. But Woods had a huge game too (33), so that doesn't really skew the numbers. 

My point about Woods' numbers suffering a bit when Kupp comes back is more making the point that Kupp will retake over the slot duties, and Woods will be sharing with Cooks on the outside. I agree that Woods' numbers were very similar with and without Kupp, but Kupp's numbers are more certain to remain consistent, IMO. And again, all three of those guys are going to score, and they will all most likely be similar on a PPG basis. But if I had to put money on who was going to be the top dog in that offense for the next 4-5 years, it would be Kupp without a doubt.

I don't know how anyone can talk about Kupp without mentioning the torn ACL he is recovering from.  He's not a plus athlete at the WR position.  He's probably not even an average athlete.  Any threat to the subpar athleticism he has to work with is a major concern.

The point though is not who a particular owner should prefer between Woods or Kupp or even Fuller.  The point is there is this huge disparity of value between the three and it goes 

Kupp >>>> Woods >> Fuller 

My contention is that Kupp and Fuller, while very different players in real life, have been pretty much the same guy in fantasy since their situations became what they are and should be ranked or valued much closer together.  But for reasons beyond me, Fuller gets hammered for injuries and is persona non grata in trades, Woods gets no love and moves zero needles, and Kupp is handed an enthusiastic free pass by almost everyone.

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3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

My contention is that Kupp and Fuller, while very different players in real life, have been pretty much the same guy in fantasy since their situations became what they are and should be ranked or valued much closer together.  But for reasons beyond me, Fuller gets hammered for injuries and is persona non grata in trades,

I think it's valid myself.

Fuller is a speed guy who has had several injuries, had constantly struggled to stay on the field. Not sure if Kupp's knee issue from week 6 was in anyway related to his ACL a few weeks later but I feel like he's basically had one significant injury. Also in general I trust aging process of a possession slot WR over a WR reliant on speed. And you are right I'm not worried about Kupp's ACL recovery, only in the sense it might slow him down early next year. 

Fuller is more big play dependent, not as consistent a scorer and he'll crush you more weeks then Kupp. For example Fuller gave you full games last year of 2/15/0 and 2/31/0 out of 7 games-more on those games in a second. Fuller is a very hard guy for me to trust putting in my lineup.  If you don't count the two games Kupp has had to leave he's had one single digit fantasy game since week 9 of his rookie season.  In fact most of Kupp's poor performances in his career have been when the two times he could not finish a game and the first half of his rookie year. So the trust factor I have in terms of putting these guys in my lineups each week is night and day.  On that note, despite Kupp being older I don't  it's not a fair comp to just compare their last two years.  Comparing Kupp as a rookie coming from a small college to Fuller in his second season after a career at Notre Dame is not really fair and Kupp sort of took by around mid point of his rookie season. Kupp had 23 catches, 316 yards and  2 TD's after his first 7 games, a prorated season pace of 53/722/5. I use those 7 games because the rest of his career works out to a full 16 game season and  even including the two games he left early works out to 79/1,119/9 and again that's with leaving two games early. I don't trust Fuller to ever put together a 16 game stretch like that.

Back to that stretch of 2/15 and 2/31 games that Fuller had. I don't think it's a coincidence as much as that was when Coutee was starting to play. Coutee and Fuller only played 3 full games together and Fuller's production nose dived, again I don't think it's  coincidence.  Fuller was already not a target monster and Coutee sipping off some of that is gong to hurt him, and as I was implying earlier if Coutee could actually stay healthy I think he will out target Fuller. Kupp has a legit shot to lead his team in targets, as is seems like 1 of 3, Fuller is clearly fighting to be the distant second.   And if I'm forecasting the future I'm more worried about Houston adding to their WR/TE group then I am the Rams.

Woods vs Kupp is a more interesting subject. I've been under estimating him and might continue to under estimate him relative to Kupp because I still have a higher trust in Kupp.  ACL and all. But the numbers don't really back up that trust from last year. I can't justify a statistical argument based on last season to validate that. Probably just of case of seeing Woods have a career year in his 6th season, even a good amount better in per game pace then his first season in LA, and that is just leading to lack of trust of it being something that will continue. I've said before but I can't put into stats just a feeling that the offense really missed Kupp and I just put more trust in his long term role sustaining and growing more then I do Woods but again if we are just looking at stats from last year I don't have a real leg to stand on to make that claim.

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18 hours ago, kutta said:

@skinfanjon

@FF Ninja

Sorry for letting the Kupp/Woods thing slide.

I pretty much agree with @menobrown's point about the Kupp/Goff connection - it does seem like those two are going to be together for a long time, almost like the Jordy/Rodgers connection. So it's not just the stats (which also work out in Kupp's favor), but also the intangibles that we've heard about (Goff and Kupp being friends, Kupp being the security blanket, etc.).

Yes, Woods is only one year older. But he's been in the league six years, Kupp has been in for two years. Why can't we assume Kupp will continue to improve? 

Even including the game where Kupp was hurt very early, he still outscored both Woods and Cooks on a per-game basis. If you remove the one game he left very early, Kupp outscored Woods by almost 3 points per game. If you remove the other game he got hurt, Kupp outscored Woods by 4.2 PPG (which puts him rigth below Adams, Brown, and Hopkins as the number 4 WR). That's significant, no matter what you want to say about his long TD's. A second year WR scoring at the same pace as those three guys is actually pretty incredible.

And yes, Kupp had a huge 37 point game. But Woods had a huge game too (33), so that doesn't really skew the numbers. 

My point about Woods' numbers suffering a bit when Kupp comes back is more making the point that Kupp will retake over the slot duties, and Woods will be sharing with Cooks on the outside. I agree that Woods' numbers were very similar with and without Kupp, but Kupp's numbers are more certain to remain consistent, IMO. And again, all three of those guys are going to score, and they will all most likely be similar on a PPG basis. But if I had to put money on who was going to be the top dog in that offense for the next 4-5 years, it would be Kupp without a doubt.

No worries, it's an interesting debate.

My original statement still stands - I don't see the point in comparing PPG when one player was in the midst of an unsustainable TD run. Kupp is probably never going to finish a season with 13-14 TDs. Those are propping up his PPG last year. In reality, while both players were playing, they received almost exactly the same number of snaps and targets (I think Woods had a slight, albeit borderline negligible lead in both). Unless you think one guy is more talented than the other, there shouldn't be much difference in valuation. Personally, I always prefer the player that is more versatile. Woods can play outside or he can play the slot. Kupp plays the slot. There's nothing inherently more valuable about playing the slot, so I don't see why Woods being pushed back outside when Kupp returns will hurt him. As can be seen, his stats were almost identical with and without Kupp.

As for the "top dog" idea, I would lean towards the answer being "no one." The Rams spread the ball around between their 3 WRs very evenly when they were all healthy last year - I see no reason they would deviate from that. If anyone were to take a jump in production in 2019 it'll be Cooks as it'll be his second year in the offense. 

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On 2/20/2019 at 12:13 PM, skinfanjon said:

My comment is more aimed at saying Kupp is overrated than Fuller is underrated.  I like him just fine at 6.12 and probably a touch higher.  He's going behind guys like Alshon, Watkins, Sutton, Lockett, and A-Rob.  I'm not saying he's definitely better than each of those guys, but I certainly prefer him at least a few.

O'Brien is clearly no McVay, but that hasn't stopped Houston from being a formidable passing offense when their major pieces have been playing together.  And I'll take Watson over Goff anyday.

Let's take a look at the numbers though.  Fuller has played 11 games with Watson; compare that to Kupp's last 11 games.  I'll even throw out the two games he couldn't finish due to injury, which for whatever reason we're supposed to ignore.

A: 21.9, 21.2, 17.2, 32.5, 25.3, 21.1, 14.9, 3.5, 5.3, 12.8, 23.4         AVG: 18.10

B: 22.6, 12.8, 24.8, 5.1, 8.5, 17.8, 12.3, 16.8, 37.2, 21, 19.9             AVG: 18.98

One has 5 20 point games, the other has 4.  They both have a 30 point game.  They both have two single digit games.  They both have ACL recoveries ahead of them.  They both play in high quality offenses with very good QBs.  One is turning 26, the other 25.  

Basically, they're the same.  

How does this equate to 27 spots of ADP and entirely bipolar trade value?

Bringing this back for more consideration as I believe it was overlooked.

12 hours ago, menobrown said:

I think it's valid myself.

Fuller is a speed guy who has had several injuries, had constantly struggled to stay on the field. Not sure if Kupp's knee issue from week 6 was in anyway related to his ACL a few weeks later but I feel like he's basically had one significant injury. Also in general I trust aging process of a possession slot WR over a WR reliant on speed. And you are right I'm not worried about Kupp's ACL recovery, only in the sense it might slow him down early next year. 

Fuller is more big play dependent, not as consistent a scorer and he'll crush you more weeks then Kupp. For example Fuller gave you full games last year of 2/15/0 and 2/31/0 out of 7 games-more on those games in a second. Fuller is a very hard guy for me to trust putting in my lineup.  If you don't count the two games Kupp has had to leave he's had one single digit fantasy game since week 9 of his rookie season.  In fact most of Kupp's poor performances in his career have been when the two times he could not finish a game and the first half of his rookie year. So the trust factor I have in terms of putting these guys in my lineups each week is night and day.  On that note, despite Kupp being older I don't  it's not a fair comp to just compare their last two years.  Comparing Kupp as a rookie coming from a small college to Fuller in his second season after a career at Notre Dame is not really fair and Kupp sort of took by around mid point of his rookie season. Kupp had 23 catches, 316 yards and  2 TD's after his first 7 games, a prorated season pace of 53/722/5. I use those 7 games because the rest of his career works out to a full 16 game season and  even including the two games he left early works out to 79/1,119/9 and again that's with leaving two games early. I don't trust Fuller to ever put together a 16 game stretch like that.

Back to that stretch of 2/15 and 2/31 games that Fuller had. I don't think it's a coincidence as much as that was when Coutee was starting to play. Coutee and Fuller only played 3 full games together and Fuller's production nose dived, again I don't think it's  coincidence.  Fuller was already not a target monster and Coutee sipping off some of that is gong to hurt him, and as I was implying earlier if Coutee could actually stay healthy I think he will out target Fuller. Kupp has a legit shot to lead his team in targets, as is seems like 1 of 3, Fuller is clearly fighting to be the distant second.   And if I'm forecasting the future I'm more worried about Houston adding to their WR/TE group then I am the Rams.

Woods vs Kupp is a more interesting subject. I've been under estimating him and might continue to under estimate him relative to Kupp because I still have a higher trust in Kupp.  ACL and all. But the numbers don't really back up that trust from last year. I can't justify a statistical argument based on last season to validate that. Probably just of case of seeing Woods have a career year in his 6th season, even a good amount better in per game pace then his first season in LA, and that is just leading to lack of trust of it being something that will continue. I've said before but I can't put into stats just a feeling that the offense really missed Kupp and I just put more trust in his long term role sustaining and growing more then I do Woods but again if we are just looking at stats from last year I don't have a real leg to stand on to make that claim.

Thanks for the reply, some really good points in here.  

To be clear, if I'm ranking them it's Woods/Kupp/Fuller, but they're all fairly close together.  It's the disparity in value that's driving me nuts.  

The debate for me is really Woods vs. Kupp, but I introduced Fuller as a comparison to Kupp for all the reasons I just quoted myself on lol.  Line of thinking being if they are so similar, Woods stands out more, yet is tossed between them with large gulfs on both sides.  

The point you raise about Coutee is a really good one and not something I'd looked at too closely.  It's a small sample but the logic makes sense.  I could attempt to look closer at who the opponents were and what else happened in those games but, instead I'll just concede that's a strong point and would make me consider it closer if investing in WF.

Re: Woods vs Kupp, I tend to chalk up Woods first four years to him getting BUFFALO'd.  I've always thought he was held back by that franchise and is now just getting a fair shot.  I don't know if anyone else caught it and I'm not interested in searching for it, bit Aikman called him the best all around WR in the league during the NFCCG.  That's some high praise.  I know Kupp has the rapport with Goff and a knack for finding soft spots in the defense, but again, I see no special athletic traits.  If choosing between a healthy Woods coming off a WR11 season and Kupp coming off an ACL injury when they were already close in value when both were healthy, I mean it's a no brainier to me which one I want.  But as you alluded to in your post, there's not much of a leg to stand on in favor of Kupp, so I certainly respect your preference.  

On a macro level though I just do not get it.  This is a widespread consensus on where these guys fall that boggles my mind.  Owner to owner, sure, get your guy.  Have a unique take.  It's just baffling to me that literally everyone I've encountered in trade discussion has zero interest on Woods (or Fuller to a lesser degree)  but will bend over backwards to slurp up Kupp.  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

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15 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

It's just baffling to me that literally everyone I've encountered in trade discussion has zero interest on Woods (or Fuller to a lesser degree)  but will bend over backwards to slurp up Kupp.  I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

Try trading Keenan Allen.  It's as if he is 76 years old and has been dipped in nuclear waste.

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14 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Try trading Keenan Allen.  It's as if he is 76 years old and has been dipped in nuclear waste.

LOL you're not kidding.  I shopped him in one league recently and the response was "Don't want Allen at all.  Old and tied to older".  He's 26.  Another response was "How many ACLs does he have left".  Two I'd imagine, since that was three years ago.

I ended up packaging him with OJ + Damien for Gurley to a different owner though.

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

No worries, it's an interesting debate.

My original statement still stands - I don't see the point in comparing PPG when one player was in the midst of an unsustainable TD run. Kupp is probably never going to finish a season with 13-14 TDs. 

Double digit TDs next season. Calling it now. 

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1 hour ago, skinfanjon said:

To be clear, if I'm ranking them it's Woods/Kupp/Fuller, but they're all fairly close together.  It's the disparity in value that's driving me nuts.  

It's not that hard to figure out from a perception perspective - as you alluded to Woods still has the stench from his Buffalo days stuck to him and Fuller just has not been able to stay healthy. Fantasy players are fickle for the most part but sometimes certain perceptions are hard to shake.

Kupp is the shiny new toy that had his best game on national TV - and to be fair there are a lot of other things to like about him as well.

It's good owners that take advantage of these market inefficiencies - sure it gets frustrating if you're trying to sell, but instead sell a bigger name and keep Woods production. Woods is one of the biggest bargains in this game. Also sometimes you have to admit that there's a reason you're looking to sell a guy (for example Fuller) and all the other owners probably have the same apprehensions. Guys are "injury prone" until they're not and it's tough to buy a guy that in the back of your mind you're not sure you'll ever be able to count on - it's human nature.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's not that hard to figure out from a perception perspective - as you alluded to Woods still has the stench from his Buffalo days stuck to him and Fuller just has not been able to stay healthy. Fantasy players are fickle for the most part but sometimes certain perceptions are hard to shake.

Kupp is the shiny new toy that had his best game on national TV - and to be fair there are a lot of other things to like about him as well.

It's good owners that take advantage of these market inefficiencies - sure it gets frustrating if you're trying to sell, but instead sell a bigger name and keep Woods production. Woods is one of the biggest bargains in this game. Also sometimes you have to admit that there's a reason you're looking to sell a guy (for example Fuller) and all the other owners probably have the same apprehensions. Guys are "injury prone" until they're not and it's tough to buy a guy that in the back of your mind you're not sure you'll ever be able to count on - it's human nature.

This is a great point especially with regards to Woods, whom everyone seems anxious to sell off but at the same time is surprised the people they're selling him to don't think of him as an elite asset any more than they do.

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5 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's not that hard to figure out from a perception perspective - as you alluded to Woods still has the stench from his Buffalo days stuck to him and Fuller just has not been able to stay healthy. Fantasy players are fickle for the most part but sometimes certain perceptions are hard to shake.

Kupp is the shiny new toy that had his best game on national TV - and to be fair there are a lot of other things to like about him as well.

It's good owners that take advantage of these market inefficiencies - sure it gets frustrating if you're trying to sell, but instead sell a bigger name and keep Woods production. Woods is one of the biggest bargains in this game. Also sometimes you have to admit that there's a reason you're looking to sell a guy (for example Fuller) and all the other owners probably have the same apprehensions. Guys are "injury prone" until they're not and it's tough to buy a guy that in the back of your mind you're not sure you'll ever be able to count on - it's human nature.

Just saying the same standard seems to not be applied to Kupp.  No one cares he had two knee injuries last year.  But I digress.

1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

This is a great point especially with regards to Woods, whom everyone seems anxious to sell off but at the same time is surprised the people they're selling him to don't think of him as an elite asset any more than they do.

I'm only looking to sell him on my rebuild orphan.  Happily buying everywhere else.

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7 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

I'm only looking to sell him on my rebuild orphan.  Happily buying everywhere else.

What have you bought him for?  And why would you want to sell a 26 year old WR that should have a good 5-7 years of production left in a rebuild?  I've not noticed anyone selling Kupp because they're in a rebuild.

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

What have you bought him for?  And why would you want to sell a 26 year old WR that should have a good 5-7 years of production left in a rebuild?  I've not noticed anyone selling Kupp because they're in a rebuild.

I know this wasn't directed towards me, but I just bought Woods for J. Howard, 1.10, 3.03 in a 12 team PPR.

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

What have you bought him for?  And why would you want to sell a 26 year old WR that should have a good 5-7 years of production left in a rebuild?  I've not noticed anyone selling Kupp because they're in a rebuild.

I acquired him everywhere I could last off-season, so there are only two spots where O don't have him currently.  One is a league that stays dormant for several months.  Rookie draft is in late July, it'll start waking up a month or so  before.  I'm defending champ and have the 1.11 and 1.12, plus trade chips like Golladay, Pettis, Coutee, so will be looking for some sort of deal with those assets.  He will be a target for sure. The other spot is one where the owner feels the same I do.  I've poked around but my team there has some elite talent and not much depth.  It's hard for me to deal for anyone right now.

To answer your question, I don't generally project any players 5-7 years out except QBs.  Just are too many variables to overcome to count on productivity for that long, to an age of 32-34 as you're describing here.  Im looking to gather picks for two more seasons with that team and then let it mature.  I would absolutely sell Kupp if I had him instead.  Just sold Golladay off the same team in fact for the same reasons.

33 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I know this wasn't directed towards me, but I just bought Woods for J. Howard, 1.10, 3.03 in a 12 team PPR.

Think you got a steal, especially if you are contending the next 2-3 years.

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22 hours ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

FFPC

AJ Green, 2.10, and 5.08

for

1.03

AJ Green for me, I would prefer it without the 5.08.

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How would you guys rank the following RBs in dynasty?

Justin Jackson, Rod Smith, Malcolm Brown, Chris Warren. 

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8 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

How would you guys rank the following RBs in dynasty?

Justin Jackson, Rod Smith, Malcolm Brown, Chris Warren. 

Brown, Warren, Jackson, Smith

Honestly, would need huge benches to hold any of them.

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4 hours ago, Andrew74 said:

How would you guys rank the following RBs in dynasty?

Justin Jackson, Rod Smith, Malcolm Brown, Chris Warren. 

1st - Rod Smith - because he is a free agent 

2nd - Justin Jackson - because Melvin doesn't have a long term deal and he could be the future answer, buy him now and stash on large roster leagues

3rd - Malcolm Brown - doesn't excite me but he seems to be a true handcuff

4th - Chris Warren - flashed in pre-season 2018 but he isn't a pass catcher and they're likely to add to that backfield.  

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