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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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1 minute ago, SayWhat? said:

A future 1st for Gurley, Drake, and a 4th doesn’t appear to be collusion?  

After the former Gurley owner offered him to the league? No.

Bad move, reeks of desperation / pessimist, but not collusion

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Just now, SayWhat? said:

A future 1st for Gurley, Drake, and a 4th doesn’t appear to be collusion?  

Not necessarily.  Like I said, I wouldn't have done that but if someone thinks Gurley's knee/workload is a huge chronic problem and that Drake will never get the ball to be a consistent player then getting a 1st in what many say is a loaded draft could be useful.  Lopsided...yes........but not sure collusion without more to the story. 

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4 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

a 1st for Drake/Gurley and a 4th is insanely light I would think.  Especially when his post about Gurley/Gordon for sale include he wants "a 1st and a young stud RB".  

You didn't say that in the original but the fact that he put it out to the entire league would lead me to the conclusion that there was no collusion involved.  He seems to have taken the first offer sent his way.......most likely a terrible, desperate move but I still don't see why it should automatically be reversed since it doesn't appear to be collusion.

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14 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

After the former Gurley owner offered him to the league? No.

Bad move, reeks of desperation / pessimist, but not collusion

 

14 minutes ago, Gally said:

Not necessarily.  Like I said, I wouldn't have done that but if someone thinks Gurley's knee/workload is a huge chronic problem and that Drake will never get the ball to be a consistent player then getting a 1st in what many say is a loaded draft could be useful.  Lopsided...yes........but not sure collusion without more to the story. 

Agreed on both accounts.  I was more or less being ok with the fact that the commish reversed this, and continued to use the word collusion.  Im sure it’s unlikely to be collusion, but it’s pretty tough to argue that the Gurley/Drake owner got about 30% of FMV for the package that he shipped away.  There’s really no rational explanation for taking that offer, no matter how down on Gurley/Drake you might be.

Edited by SayWhat?

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50 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 

But it got me wondering what Gurley's value actually is.

I traded him twice this past weekend,  listed both trades in trade thread and it brought a little discussion back with it.

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Either way it was reversed from the commissioner's standpoint.  Didn't send out an explanation because I wouldn't think that needs one.  Probably right in assuming he's scared off Gurley and took the first offer that came his way.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Either way it was reversed from the commissioner's standpoint.  Didn't send out an explanation because I wouldn't think that needs one.  Probably right in assuming he's scared off Gurley and took the first offer that came his way.  

Possible it was just fat fingered and reversed for that reason?

I don’t see FFPC reversing a lot of trades, especially that quickly.

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49 minutes ago, bombjack said:

Possible it was just fat fingered and reversed for that reason?

I don’t see FFPC reversing a lot of trades, especially that quickly.

Possibly that he meant to add a player I suppose.  Still made me question Gurley's real value.  

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4 hours ago, Gally said:

What was the good reason?  I wouldn't have made the trade to move Gurley in that deal but it doesn't appear to be collusion. 

The trade that was offered was not supposed to include Gurley. It was offered incorrectly.

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10 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

What's the difference between Kittle and Engram in standard leagues?

Consistency, QB play, health........all heavily favor Kittle. 

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9 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

What's the difference between Kittle and Engram in standard leagues?

Afraid I don't know because I don't play in standard leagues but with so much smoke around OBJ getting moved if I was looking to buy Engram I'd hurry up and if I owned Engram he'd be off the market.

I can say in any format if OBJ is moved I would put Engram as TE4.

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Where do people put value of Derrick Henry compared to Aaron Jones? 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Afraid I don't know because I don't play in standard leagues but with so much smoke around OBJ getting moved if I was looking to buy Engram I'd hurry up and if I owned Engram he'd be off the market.

I can say in any format if OBJ is moved I would put Engram as TE4.

I actually just moved Engram from TE8 in my dynasty rankings to TE5.  Last year I was all aboard him but then the Giants happened.  If you're going to buy him, now's the time to someone who hasn't heard the OBJ rumors.  

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Kittle and Engram have a lot in common. Both broke out when there was no competition for targets. The niners have nobody at WR and the Giants lost all their starting WRs in one game. Engram feasted on all those targets, but they dried up when the WRs came back. Kittle looks like a monster but I wonder how good he would do if SF had any kind of receiving corps?

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Where do people put value of Derrick Henry compared to Aaron Jones? 

Pretty even to me.  I prefer Henry but could see both sides. 

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31 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

Kittle and Engram have a lot in common. Both broke out when there was no competition for targets. The niners have nobody at WR and the Giants lost all their starting WRs in one game. Engram feasted on all those targets, but they dried up when the WRs came back. Kittle looks like a monster but I wonder how good he would do if SF had any kind of receiving corps?

Kittle had really good efficiency. Engram was terrible as a rookie.

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5 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Kittle had really good efficiency. Engram was terrible as a rookie.

I don't care as much about a TE's rookie season as his second season and Engram was a lot more efficient last season so not really holding his rookie year against him.

Oddly enough Kittle's year one numbers  (63/43/515/2) are close to identical as Engrams year two numbers. (64/45/577/3) and Kittle is a year older so maybe? I sure won't predict Engram to surpass Kittle's production last year but if they move Odell it's hard to not see a major breakout.

 

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2 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

Pretty even to me.  I prefer Henry but could see both sides

FBG March chart has Jones at "16" (rb 17) and Henry at "12' (rb 22). curious. trying to work a trade 

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

FBG March chart has Jones at "16" (rb 17) and Henry at "12' (rb 22). curious. trying to work a trade 

Mizelle ADP has Jones going 4.2 and Henry 4.10 in startups as of last month.  I wouldn't expect much spread between them unless someone is all in on one of them.

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With the Bell saga finally over (well, at least he now has a new contract), does anyone want to take a stab at his trade value. How about that of James Conner? 

I like the moves the Jets have made on the offensive side and think there's good potential in that offense. Does Bell push for top 5 RB scores? Does Conner see his touches drop with Samuels heading into year 2?

Any trades pass through your leagues with either of these guys?

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9 hours ago, Flying Elvis said:

With the Bell saga finally over (well, at least he now has a new contract), does anyone want to take a stab at his trade value. How about that of James Conner? 

I like the moves the Jets have made on the offensive side and think there's good potential in that offense. Does Bell push for top 5 RB scores? Does Conner see his touches drop with Samuels heading into year 2?

Any trades pass through your leagues with either of these guys?

We held a two person dispersal draft over the course of the last couple days. Conner went 1st overall.  Field included Chubb, Mixon, Julio. FWIW. 

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9 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

We held a two person dispersal draft over the course of the last couple days. Conner went 1st overall.  Field included Chubb, Mixon, Julio. FWIW. 

Don’t know the league format, but give me Mixon/Chubb, Julio, Conner, in that order. 

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Plenty of projections have Conner top 5, as well. Bell isn't far behind. Mostly curious about attitudes towards both, I guess. Will they be bargains in trade b/c of unknowns (Bell's fitness & Jets offense; Conner as unproven + Samuels) or will they both be high cost now that nobody is worried about a timeshare/vulture issue like last season prior to week 10. 

Obviously, there's always a difference from person to person, so any opinion is fine. Thanks to you both (and anyone else that chimes in)!

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8 hours ago, Edgar said:

Don’t know the league format, but give me Mixon/Chubb, Julio, Conner, in that order. 

I would have done the same

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Kareem Hunt still has to have quite a bit of value, especially to a rebuilding dynasty team, right? Looking ahead to 2020, he'll only be 24 years old.

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9 hours ago, Edgar said:

Don’t know the league format, but give me Mixon/Chubb, Julio, Conner, in that order. 

Yeah I took Mixon/Chubb at 1.2 and 2.1. I was a little surprised he took Conner. It is FFPC style, so PPR, 1.5 for TEs.

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On 2/24/2019 at 12:11 PM, Tick said:

I'm wading into Superflex for the first time this season.  Does anyone have a feel for how the Dynasty Trade Value Chart by @Dan Hindery might look in Superflex?  Multiply QB scores by 5.0?

QB scores multiplied by 5.0:

  1. Patrick Mahomes II125
  2. Saquon Barkley62
  3. (tie for 3rd) Christian McCaffrey55
  4. (tie for 3rd) Ezekiel Elliott55
  5. Todd Gurley52
  6. (tie for 6th) Deshaun Watson50
  7. (tie for 6th) Andrew Luck50
  8. (tie for 6th) Alvin Kamara50
  9. DeAndre Hopkins46
  10. JuJu Smith-Schuster42
  11. (tie for 11th) Baker Mayfield40
  12. (tie for 11th) Tyreek Hill40
  13. (tie for 11th) Michael Thomas40
  14. Odell Beckham Jr39
  15. Davante Adams38
  16. Aaron Rodgers35
  17. (tie for 17th) Nick Chubb33
  18. (tie for 17th) Mike Evans33
  19. (tie for 19th) Joe Mixon32
  20. (tie for 19th) Melvin Gordon III32
  21. (tie for 21st) Russell Wilson30
  22. (tie for 21st) Lamar Jackson30
  23. (tie for 21st) Carson Wentz30
  24. Keenan Allen28
  25. (tie for 25th) Julio Jones26
  26. (tie for 25th) Antonio Brown26
  27. (tie for 27th) Cam Newton25
  28. (tie for 27th) Stefon Diggs25
  29. (tie for 29th) David Johnson24
  30. (tie for 29th) Le'Veon Bell24
  31. (tie for 29th) Dalvin Cook24
  32. (tie for 29th) Kerryon Johnson24
  33. (tie for 29th) James Conner24
  34. (tie for 29th) Amari Cooper24
  35. Kenny Golladay23
  36. Brandin Cooks22

What would you do to rookie draft pick values?  Multiply by 1.25?

Very cool, @Dan Hindery added a Superflex column this month.  Thanks!

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10 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

We held a two person dispersal draft over the course of the last couple days. Conner went 1st overall.  Field included Chubb, Mixon, Julio. FWIW. 

It'd be tough for me to choose between Mixon & Conner if it's PPR. Conner outscored him by about 4 PPG, but I don't think we've seen Mixon hit his ceiling yet. I would put Chubb a distant 3rd since he's not going to catch many balls and Hunt is still a threat IMO. Julio slightly behind Chubb due to age and RB scarcity.

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1 hour ago, Buckna said:

It'd be tough for me to choose between Mixon & Conner if it's PPR. Conner outscored him by about 4 PPG, but I don't think we've seen Mixon hit his ceiling yet. I would put Chubb a distant 3rd since he's not going to catch many balls and Hunt is still a threat IMO. Julio slightly behind Chubb due to age and RB scarcity.

In my full PPR league, Chubb averaged 22.55 PPG from Weeks 7-16.  RB6

Mixon was RB7 at 21.7 PPG.

 

Feel free to discount Chubb due to his pass catching but I don't think Mixon's ability puts him ahead of Chubb at all, certainly not by the substantial margin you have them separated by.

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1 hour ago, Buckna said:

It'd be tough for me to choose between Mixon & Conner if it's PPR. Conner outscored him by about 4 PPG, but I don't think we've seen Mixon hit his ceiling yet. I would put Chubb a distant 3rd since he's not going to catch many balls and Hunt is still a threat IMO. Julio slightly behind Chubb due to age and RB scarcity.

Yeah I like Conner a lot as well. I didn't think it was a bad pick at 1.1 I was just surprised a little. I would take either Mixon or Chubb first and Julio vs Conner would have been tough for me. 

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How about DJ? Any recent trades? I gave up a 2020 first for him recently and I’m wondering  what the consensus is on his value.

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1 hour ago, kutta said:

How about DJ? Any recent trades? I gave up a 2020 first for him recently and I’m wondering  what the consensus is on his value.

I moved him for 2019 1.07 and a late 2020 1st. Some thought it was cheap but I am happy. I did not have a lot of interest and thought I'd take the 2 picks.

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

In my full PPR league, Chubb averaged 22.55 PPG from Weeks 7-16.  RB6

Mixon was RB7 at 21.7 PPG.

 

Feel free to discount Chubb due to his pass catching but I don't think Mixon's ability puts him ahead of Chubb at all, certainly not by the substantial margin you have them separated by.

I own all 3 of these guys in various leagues so no bias here, but I don't see Chubb sustaining his '18 second half numbers with Hunt there in the second half of the '19 season. I think Hunt is a talented guy that can still thrive outside KC's great situation. I could easily be wrong of course. I am trying to acquire Chubb in more leagues after the Hunt news so I'd be happy to be wrong if I can get him in more places.

 

Edit: And I shouldn't have typed "distant third" maybe more like easy third, for me at least.

Edited by Buckna
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Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

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5 hours ago, Drezden said:

Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

Funchess could end up being a glorified TE and score a bunch of red zone TDs. I think he’s pretty much useless as a WR, but I think he’s worth at least a better 2nd than what you’ve been offered. 

On the other hand, he may never be worth more. 

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4 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Funchess could end up being a glorified TE and score a bunch of red zone TDs. I think he’s pretty much useless as a WR, but I think he’s worth at least a better 2nd than what you’ve been offered. 

On the other hand, he may never be worth more. 

With Ebron and Doyle there I don’t even think he gets glorified te touches. However, the depth chart in Indy is pretty light, and luck looks like he’s healthy. I suppose I wouldn’t expect a better offer to come through this offseason, and I think I’d likely take it. 

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15 minutes ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

How does the community see the PPR Dynasty value of Shady McCoy vs D'onta Foreman?

McCoy at least has a chance to be useful for this season - I'm not sure Foreman ever does after that injury.

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On 3/15/2019 at 1:54 PM, Drezden said:

Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

Fair offer IMO. 

I don't see him any better than 5th on RB/WR/TE target list in his first year in the offense. 

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1 hour ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

How does the community see the PPR Dynasty value of Shady McCoy vs D'onta Foreman?

If I’m win now, and I’m looking for a vet, Shady still wouldn’t make the list since the McCoy owner probably still wants too much.  I’d pay a 3rd for him but that’s probably it.  I’d rather pay a higher price for a more stable kind of guy to win.  Foreman at least has a chance to help long term (especially if he survives the draft) if he’s healthy.  I’d take foreman in a vacuum.  

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On 3/15/2019 at 5:16 PM, Maven25 said:

12 team, ppr, superflex

Looking for thoughts on this offfer:

Team A: Adam Thielen

Team B: Sam Darnold, 2020 1st (Late)

 

That seems to be a balanced trade. I see Darnold with a career ceiling around QB12-15, but that's still fairly valuable in superflex.

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Philip Lindsay, I added this guy last year. I admit I'm not the biggest fan of his, but I don't see how his value is so low. Lindsay put up a great rookie season outplaying the SP darling Freeman, relegating him to a cop back. I know everybody liked Freeman, but you can see what happened on the field and adjust. Freeman's draft capital should take a back seat to performance on the field. Especially with a new sheriff in town not attached to last years draft class.

 

Edited by cloppbeast

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1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Philip Lindsay, I added this guy last year. I admit I'm not the biggest fan of his, but I don't see how his value is so low. Lindsay put up a great rookie season outplaying the SP darling Freeman, relegating him to a cop back. I know everybody liked Freeman, but you can see what happened on the field and adjust. Freeman's draft capital should take a back seat to performance on the field. Especially with a new sheriff in town not attached to last years draft class.

 

I'm an owner and kind of see this both ways. I'm a fan of his game and actually think he was under-utilised in the passing game so there's still some upside there if they figure that out. He's also such a fan favourite and success story for the Broncos as a UDFA that I don't think they'd actively marginalise him in favour of Freeman, despite his lack of 'status'. 

I agree that the draft capital stuff shouldn't matter at this point (although Freeman was only a 3rd round pick so it's not like they spent that much on him either) but there's the uncertainty of a new coaching staff and the wrist injury is a bit concerning to me. There's also his age as a second year player, which is probably a turn off for some owners. 

I look at his ADP and I think it seems a bit high actually - not for what he did in terms of production, but in the sense that I don't feel like that's his actual value in leagues. That is, I see a lot of guys ranked below him in typical rankings that I don't think you could get in a trade straight up for Lindsay. 

Edited by RushHour

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6 hours ago, ComfortablyNumb said:

How does the community see the PPR Dynasty value of Shady McCoy vs D'onta Foreman?

I have no confidence McCoy has anything left. Not high on Foreman but worth a shot just in case the extra time to recover helps him and if McCoy is the cost of the risk that's not much of a cost.

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12 minutes ago, RushHour said:

I look at his ADP and I think it seems a bit high actually - not for what he did in terms of production, but in the sense that I don't feel like that's his actual value in leagues. That is, I see a lot of guys ranked below him in typical rankings that I don't think you could get in a trade straight up for Lindsay. 

I agree with this. I've been trying to move him all off season. Nobody seems to want him.

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On 3/15/2019 at 3:54 PM, Drezden said:

Funchess Wr Indy vs rookie picks ? I get offer 2020 2nd (most likely late) for him, I declined but thinking what it will be fair price ?

Seems fair. If you really need the depth keep funches but he just isn't worth much as you don't want to start him. 

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Now that startup season has arrived. Curious as to other's thoughts on random 2020 1sts. Pre startup draft what 2019 startup pick do you equate as egual value if you are trading for a random 2020 1st?? I'm mainly talking FFPC as my baseline here, not sure that matters. In prior year's I've put that value as about a mid 6th but curious about others, is that high, low, about right?? Does it change due to expectations of the 2020 class??

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3 minutes ago, Aunt Jemima said:

Now that startup season has arrived. Curious as to other's thoughts on random 2020 1sts. Pre startup draft what 2019 startup pick do you equate as egual value if you are trading for a random 2020 1st?? I'm mainly talking FFPC as my baseline here, not sure that matters. In prior year's I've put that value as about a mid 6th but curious about others, is that high, low, about right?? Does it change due to expectations of the 2020 class??

Seems to have stayed about the same.  I’m in a startup now, rookies are going off the board starting in the 4th, but there have been multiple trade downs from the 3rd to 4th including a 2020 1st.  Nobody did any deals straight up for a 1st yet (we’re in the mid 4th) but maybe soon.  I’ll update when/if something happens.    

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