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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

In short roster FFPC league I don't think anyone cut Sanders, for sure not in my leagues.  You certainly touched on the negatives but reportedly he is progressing well and it was encouraging that Denver did not cut him and save a good chunk of salary.

In an FFPC style league I would for sure take Sanders over Carr(who was cut in most leagues of mine) and I would also take Sanders and 3.12 over Ryan.

About a month before cut downs, Sanders was traded for the 7.01 in one of my FFPC leagues.  He has very minimal value.  Daeshawn Hamilton however was cut in multiple FFPC leagues of mine.  Seems backwards to me.  

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12 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

About a month before cut downs, Sanders was traded for the 7.01 in one of my FFPC leagues.  He has very minimal value.  Daeshawn Hamilton however was cut in multiple FFPC leagues of mine.  Seems backwards to me.  

 I agree his value is low in FFPC and in general. I would also strongly argue that Carr is worth less and Ryan in same ballpark.

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On 4/10/2019 at 3:03 PM, FF Ninja said:

 I would take JJAW over all but maybe 2-3 of last year's WRs.

who are those 2-3?

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11 hours ago, menobrown said:

 I agree his value is low in FFPC and in general. I would also strongly argue that Carr is worth less and Ryan in same ballpark.

Carr seems like a great buy low right now.  If I was holding 2 QB's in FFPC and platooning them until 1 separates themselves, I would love to have Carr as one of those hopefuls.  Hell I might even be comfortable with him as my only QB and risk it if my team isn't in great shape.  If I'm being super optimistic about Carr, I can see a case being made for him being a top10 dynasty QB.  

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Carr seems like a great buy low right now.  If I was holding 2 QB's in FFPC and platooning them until 1 separates themselves, I would love to have Carr as one of those hopefuls.  Hell I might even be comfortable with him as my only QB and risk it if my team isn't in great shape.  If I'm being super optimistic about Carr, I can see a case being made for him being a top10 dynasty QB.  

Fumbled into the end zone out of bounds week 15 two years ago to cost me a championship. Never again will I own Carr!

The lost fumble took me from a win to a tie in the semi final, and I lost head to head during the season. Would have smashed both teams in the super bowl.

Edited by Snorkelson
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1 hour ago, Catbird said:

I don't think he knew?

My blood boils every time I see his name...never again I tell you!!!!

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On 4/13/2019 at 8:16 AM, Dr. Dan said:

who are those 2-3?

Moore and Pettis are the only ones I really like from last year. Ridley and Kirk both showed enough to be the "bird in the hand" for this kind of hypothetical, but JJAW appears to have more upside than they do. To me he seems a little similar to Sutton, but I like him better.

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Moore and Pettis are the only ones I really like from last year. Ridley and Kirk both showed enough to be the "bird in the hand" for this kind of hypothetical, but JJAW appears to have more upside than they do. To me he seems a little similar to Sutton, but I like him better.

Thanks. I may have an opportunity to swap Anthony Miller for 1.10, which would put me in a situation to draft a wr with more upside 

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Just woke up with an offer of the 1.02 for Kerryon. I like KJ but ill take the pick in this instance. 

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29 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

Just woke up with an offer of the 1.02 for Kerryon. I like KJ but ill take the pick in this instance. 

Interested to hear what others have to say. Personally, I would rather have a 21 year old KJ. 

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If I need RBs, I keep KJ as I like him better than any in this draft.  If it was next year, I would make that in a second because I like the 2020 RBs more than KJ.

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14 minutes ago, Mingooch said:

If I need RBs, I keep KJ as I like him better than any in this draft.  If it was next year, I would make that in a second because I like the 2020 RBs more than KJ.

If the league is active with trading though, you probably get what you want by taking the 1.2 offer now and turning it into a 2020 1st at some conveient time near your rook draft...

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Posted (edited)

Yeah im relatively strong at rb, KJ was half my depth though lol.

Have CMC, David Johnson, Aaron Jones. Must start 1, can start 3.

Now have the 1.02, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 2.02

Edited by Run It Up

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4 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

Yeah im relatively strong at rb, KJ was half my depth though lol.

Have CMC, David Johnson, Aaron Jones. Must start 1, can start 3.

Now have the 1.02, 1.09, 1.10, 1.11, 2.02

I have the 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, and 2.2 picks in one of my drafts. Just curious who you think you'll target/land there? 

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1 minute ago, ffmail4me said:

I have the 1.8, 1.10, 1.11, and 2.2 picks in one of my drafts. Just curious who you think you'll target/land there? 

A lot can change with the draft but there are a handful of WRs id like to have a couple of, and being TE premium I'm interested in Hockenson, Fant and Sternberger.

New found scarcity at RB might push me towards Damien Harris or Bryce Love.

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1 minute ago, Run It Up said:

A lot can change with the draft but there are a handful of WRs id like to have a couple of, and being TE premium I'm interested in Hockenson, Fant and Sternberger.

New found scarcity at RB might push me towards Damien Harris or Bryce Love.

I'm guessing regardless of roster needs either Hockenson or Fant has to go in that area, and I'm liking more WRs than RBs in that spot. I'd have to see where Love or Harris gets drafted/situation to consider either there though. 

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What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

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1 minute ago, Hankmoody said:

What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

I'm probably wrong but I think he's just a camp body. I think everyone on the planet expects NE to draft Hock, Fant, or Smith 

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5 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

I'm probably wrong but I think he's just a camp body. I think everyone on the planet expects NE to draft Hock, Fant, or Smith 

That doesn't preclude anything with ASJ though.  NEP are the one place I would trust to put the guy to use if he has the chops.  I'd love to have Aaron Hernandez at ASJ's current price.

Besides that, mocks are absolute garbage and anyone pretending to know what any NFL team is "likely" to do outside of a few QB situations is laughable.  No one has any clue if any of those TE's will even be there, let alone if NE believes they'd be the best option at the moment.  It's pure speculation and a total dart throw.

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

Wes Welker had a lot of success, certainly more than Edelman, and arguably more than Moss in NE. 

I think ASJ is fool's gold. Its been 5 years, he's likely already played his best ball, and it wasn't all that good. Sure if he's free to pick up on waivers, go for it, but he's not a guy to be targeted in my opinion. Chances are New England brings in at least 2-3 pass catchers in the draft, and its possible Philip Dorsett plays a bigger role this year, and we can't truly rule out Josh Gordon either. 

If I owned him, I'd be trying to sell right now.

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4 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

I'm probably wrong but I think he's just a camp body. I think everyone on the planet expects NE to draft Hock, Fant, or Smith 

This is close to my position. I dont think he will be their te1 under any circumstance - he needs to be able to block to earn that position. Which makes him a rotational at best player. Likely camp body.

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

Wes Welker had a lot of success, certainly more than Edelman.

I used to think Wes was the second best WR in the Brady/Belichick era and the best slot receiver in that time span.

I don't think Welker is better than Edelman, the argument used to be that Welker was a compiler in a system which i think is a joke, but its clear as day that Edelman is capable of what Welker was while at the same time playing at a top 10 level on the outside.

Steve Smith Sr. Saying that Edelman is a top 10 WR in skill isnt hyperbole.

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6 hours ago, Denver724 said:

Interested to hear what others have to say. Personally, I would rather have a 21 year old KJ. 

I agree with this, but I can understand some concern for KJ's 2019 season. There's a possibility that CJ Anderson Tolberts KJ's TDs and Riddick pulls a Woodhead on his targets. If that happens, KJ's value could decrease as the season progresses. Also, after ending last season injured, another injury could earn him the dreaded injury-prone label. So holding him does carry some risk.

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6 minutes ago, Run It Up said:

I used to think Wes was the second best WR in the Brady/Belichick era and the best slot receiver in that time span.

I don't think Welker is better than Edelman, the argument used to be that Welker was a compiler in a system which i think is a joke, but its clear as day that Edelman is capable of what Welker was while at the same time playing at a top 10 level on the outside.

Steve Smith Sr. Saying that Edelman is a top 10 WR in skill isnt hyperbole.

I would disagree with all of this. Edelman isn't a top-10 overall WR while playing inside, if he played outside full time, he'd be even lower. 

Welker was a great WR, better route runner,and better after the catch than Edelman. Equal hands I'd say, they both drop more passes than one would expect. 

Edelman's best season wouldn't crack Welker's top-5. The Patriots built the passing game around Welker for years. Edelman has been a key cog, but that is it. 

Frankly, Amendola was closer to Edelman, than Edelman is to Welker in my opinion.

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4 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

What about ASJ in NE?  Is this the typical over-hyped "anything NE touches turn to gold, except that it's really only been Julian Edelman and a one-flash Randy Moss" situation?  Or is this a 27 year old beast that might be able to reach somewhere near 80% of his potential finally?

It'll be interesting to see where he goes in real drafts. He was going undrafted in redrafts I've seen with 300 players rostered. But until I see his new pricing or some dynasty trades, I'm guessing he's not in the over-hyped group yet. If any top 10 passing offense had a massive void at TE, I'd think ASJ signing there would've bumped his value. Given the Pats' previous history of rehabbing value in "lost cause" types, I think ASJ is likely worth a flyer. Brady is no longer a deep passer, so a big body like ASJ has potential for volume. He seemed to be getting his career on track, but then picked a bad location in free agency. Did anybody expect big things in JAX? So as far as I'm concerned, the guy still has his act together and is now in a TE friendly situation. He'll be 27 when the season starts. That's the age Kyle Rudolph was when he had his first season over 500 yards. Depending on the league and settings, I'd pay at least a 3rd for him if I needed TE help. If he makes it through camp and is poised to be a starter, I wouldn't fault anyone for paying a 2nd. 

2 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

mocks are absolute garbage 

So true. They really are nothing but clickbait. There is nothing to be gleaned from them*.

*with the caveat that I saw a composite of like 60 mocks on reddit and all that was good for was giving you an idea of what round each prospect might go in. Actual landing spots are anyone's guess.

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6 hours ago, travdogg said:

Wes Welker had a lot of success, certainly more than Edelman, and arguably more than Moss in NE. 

I think ASJ is fool's gold. Its been 5 years, he's likely already played his best ball, and it wasn't all that good. Sure if he's free to pick up on waivers, go for it, but he's not a guy to be targeted in my opinion. Chances are New England brings in at least 2-3 pass catchers in the draft, and its possible Philip Dorsett plays a bigger role this year, and we can't truly rule out Josh Gordon either. 

If I owned him, I'd be trying to sell right now.

Bleh I meant Welker.  Edelman wasn't a reclamation, he was drafted by them.

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found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

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14 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Fournette deals going down lately? I want to cash out

I traded Tyreek for Fournette and the 1.10 before Fournette got arrested.

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21 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Fournette deals going down lately? I want to cash out

I traded Tevin Coleman and the 1.10 for him a few weeks ago and would happily again.

Seems like a bad time to cash out if you ask me. Personally I'm trying to buy.

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37 minutes ago, DreamTheater said:

found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

Feels like an easy accept to me. 

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3 hours ago, travdogg said:

Feels like an easy accept to me. 

I'd rather keep Shepard and Thomas. I know as we approach the draft, we talk ourselves into a lot of 2nd round picks, but statistically they are pretty much dart throws. Shepard and Ian Thomas may not be superstars, but they are both better than can be expected from 2nd round picks. I think, at least for this season without OBJ, that Shepard will be pretty close to WR24 and when Olsen retires, Ian Thomas looks like a potential top 10 TE. He came on strong last year as a rookie (25/246/2 in last 5 games). 

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4 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Fournette deals going down lately? I want to cash out

Saw him go for the 1.02 in one of my leagues the day before the latest trouble.

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I recently sent Corey Davis, Ito Smith, and a 5 pick bump in the early 3rd for Fournette. It was maybe 3 days before his recent arrest, but I'd still probably do it.

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Posted (edited)

I recently traded Fournette for Guice. I don't feel great about it - and I'd probably take it back if I could, honestly - but in the moment, I wanted off the bus. 

Edit: I also tried to trade him for Kerryon and Amari (individually), without luck. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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How about a rookie pick price check on Corey Davis?  How do you see him stacking up against the top prospects from this year’s (or next year’s) draft?

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I'd rather keep Shepard and Thomas. I know as we approach the draft, we talk ourselves into a lot of 2nd round picks, but statistically they are pretty much dart throws. Shepard and Ian Thomas may not be superstars, but they are both better than can be expected from 2nd round picks. I think, at least for this season without OBJ, that Shepard will be pretty close to WR24 and when Olsen retires, Ian Thomas looks like a potential top 10 TE. He came on strong last year as a rookie (25/246/2 in last 5 games). 

I'm not as high on Thomas or Shepard, and might be higher on Gallup. I don't think Shepard is any lock to be ahead of Golden Tate or even Evan Engram in NY. I view Shepard and the 2.1 as about equal. 

Thomas had a nice finish to last season, but I think he's worth less than Gallup for me, add in basically getting a free 2020 2nd rounder, that is thought to be on the higher side, and I think its a good trade.

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12 minutes ago, Arodin said:

How about a rookie pick price check on Corey Davis?  How do you see him stacking up against the top prospects from this year’s (or next year’s) draft?

I think he was a much better receiver prospect coming out of school than any of the wideouts in this class. With that being said his situation is about as bad as it can be. An injury riddled QB and an old school run first mentality don’t spell FF success. I would probably pay a top 5 pick for him but I am not real high on this class. I am sure some of these guys will go on to be successful but trying to identify those is difficult this year (especially before the draft). I also have hopes that Corey keeps developing and at some point TEN turns into a marginal passing offense.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/16/2019 at 10:19 AM, DreamTheater said:

found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

I would take this trade, I think it is slightly in your favor because of the 2020 pick.

Shephard is the best player in this deal so I also understand his side of the deal.

I think Shephard has been over valued for his career so far. I can see the appeal of more volume for Shephard due to his new contract following OBJ trade. I just dont think he is good enough to get the targets. Too many other good options on that offense.

It's a deal that is likely a win for him in the 2019 season, but will be a win for you after that.

As far as Ninjas claim that you can't find good players like this with those 2nd round picks.. well Ian Thomas was a 3rd round pick in rookie drafts, Gallup 2nd rounder and Shephard was a 1st rounder but imo overdrafted.

Edited by Biabreakable

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On 4/16/2019 at 10:19 AM, DreamTheater said:

found this offer in mailbox today....

Giving Shepard and I Thomas for Gallup, 2019 2.1 and 2020 2nd (likely top)

I think I'd take that trade without the 2020 2nd... seems like an instant accept to me. several wrs at 2.1 I'd like better than Shepard, and Gallup is very under valued. did great with cooper and has less competition at wr. 2020 2nd is a bonus

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

 

As far as Ninjas claim that you can't find good players like this with those 2nd round picks.. well Ian Thomas was a 3rd round pick in rookie drafts, Gallup 2nd rounder and Shephard was a 1st rounder but imo overdrafted.

This is obviously an extreme exception to the rule, but I got Kittle in the 6th round of a couple rookie drafts in FFPC (included cut FAs but still). I suppose Lindsay is another example, too. I'd have to check where he went but it was super late.

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21 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

This is obviously an extreme exception to the rule, but I got Kittle in the 6th round of a couple rookie drafts in FFPC (included cut FAs but still). I suppose Lindsay is another example, too. I'd have to check where he went but it was super late.

Huh. Kittle should have been on the radar in TE premium format. I think you got lucky there. Linday was likely undrafted in a lot leagues.

I like the depth at WR of this draft class enough that I think there is going to be good value in the 2nd round. Even though the RB are not as good as they have been recently, I think it makes for a stronger overall group of prospects to draft for fantasy. I think this WR class is the best I have seen since 2014. 

So that 13th pick is pretty valuable imo. Perhaps close to Shephard  itself.

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Posted (edited)

I don't get the fascination a couple of posters have with Gallup.  Bad QB, offense runs through RB, 2nd receiving option...I'd still probably make this trade (depending on my roster) but he'd be the third reason why.

Edited by skinfanjon
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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

This is obviously an extreme exception to the rule, but I got Kittle in the 6th round of a couple rookie drafts in FFPC (included cut FAs but still).

In just last two years of FFPC leagues I've drafted Kittle, Ian Thomas, and Herndon in 6th round or later along with Golladay and Cohen.

So yes you can find a lot of players later in drafts, some years anyway, but key is not just drafting them but drafting them and having foresight to not cut them. For me drafting those TE's did me zero good, I cut them all.

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49 minutes ago, menobrown said:

In just last two years of FFPC leagues I've drafted Kittle, Ian Thomas, and Herndon in 6th round or later along with Golladay and Cohen.

So yes you can find a lot of players later in drafts, some years anyway, but key is not just drafting them but drafting them and having foresight to not cut them. For me drafting those TE's did me zero good, I cut them all.

Yeah with 16 man cutdowns, roster spots are premium.  Rarely do you have time to wait a season for a 6th round pick.

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

In just last two years of FFPC leagues I've drafted Kittle, Ian Thomas, and Herndon in 6th round or later along with Golladay and Cohen.

So yes you can find a lot of players later in drafts, some years anyway, but key is not just drafting them but drafting them and having foresight to not cut them. For me drafting those TE's did me zero good, I cut them all.

I know what you mean, but I was able to keep Kittle in the spots I drafted him. He looked good out of a pro style offense at Iowa, stud athletically, looked like he was going to be the starter. But I missed on a bunch of others. I had Herndon and cut him prematurely as well. 

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Cutting Kittle in FFPC still haunts me to this day. 

It's comforting to at least know I'm not alone on that one. 

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3 hours ago, skinfanjon said:

I don't get the fascination a couple of posters have with Gallup.  Bad QB, offense runs through RB, 2nd receiving option...I'd still probably make this trade (depending on my roster) but he'd be the third reason why.

Can't speak for others but he was one of my favorites of last years class of WR's.  Solid all across the board and I expect that offense to continue its leap forward since the Amari deal.  Once he came aboard, Gallup could play his role rather comfortably, and he did well.  No reason not to expect a 2nd year jump from a guy that came into the league at 22 and showed well.  I get the reasons of concerns about Dak or feeding Zeke, but he was miscast as a #1 going into the year after they drafted him, solved that issue by trading for Amari, and then he started improving.  If he were 24-25 coming into the league sure I would think he was capped as that, but he recently turned 23 with room to grow.  

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58 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Cutting Kittle in FFPC still haunts me to this day. 

It's comforting to at least know I'm not alone on that one. 

Not only have  I cut Kittle but I also cut Kelce in an FFPC league. I'd had him on IR after using a third round pick on him and ran out of IR spots so cut him figuring if I drafted him in round 3 coming out of college then surely coming off a microfacture surgery I could redraft him in round 3 if not 4 but I never had a chance. These are hard things to get over for sure, I think of stuff like all the work on trades, value of first round picks and the such and that's basically just giving away multiple 1's. 

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