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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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With RBs I value opportunity over talent most of the time. Unless that talent is transcendent, which it rarely is. I'd rather have a less talented RB who starts in a good offense for a couple seasons than a seemingly more talented RB in a bad spot. I don't think the difference in talent is nearly as significant as the difference in opportunity most of the time. 

I am assuming Jacobs goes to a good spot. If that proves untrue then undoubtedly he will slide down my board. Past the point Guice would pass him. But I'm also putting Montgomery and Henderson in the same boat. For my part on talent alone I'd put both of those guys ahead of Jacobs. Is that rookie fever for Jacobs?

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59 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

How do we feel about Cook vs Mixon right now?

I feel like they are in the same tier-ish, but if you owned one, would you trade straight up for the other? Would either side have to add a piece?

Have an offer on the table where the other owner wants to send me mixon and dion lewis for Cook and Pettis. I am not interested in that particular deal, because my team is super bad at wr, and also I have no desire to own lewis.

I do however have Cook in a few too many spots and if the situation arose where i could divest but stay in the same tier of player, I think that would be smart, so I am willing to deal cook if the offer were closer to what I need in that spot.

Just wanted to take you guys' temperature on the whole thing since ive mostly been on the buying end of Cook to this point.

I have Mixon a tier ahead of Cook, right now. He's a year younger and comes with less injury risk. I think Cook has better intincts and Mixon is the better athlete - so based on talent, I think they're neck and neck. 

Edited by Concept Coop
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6 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Jacobs' tape was good and we're operating under the assumption that he's a 1st round pick. He also projects to catch more balls than Guice, which is big in PPR leagues. Jacobs' situation is likely to be better, too. I don't think it's fair to dismiss that as rookie fever.  

Jacobs' limited tape was good, while the extensive tape on Guice was better than good.

I guess part of my problem is that I am not willing to operate under the assumption that Jacobs is a 1st round pick. The league has been trending away from taking RBs early, so it would be quite a departure for anyone to reach for someone in this draft class. But I guess if Penny can go in the 1st, so can Jacobs. It only takes one team to reach.

On the topic of Guice, I recall some noise out of camp last year that he had 3 down potential, so I'm not sure Jacobs really projects to catch more balls than Guice.

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5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I have Mixon a tier ahead of Cook, right now. He's a year younger and comes with less injury history. I think Cook has better intincts and Mixon is the better athlete - so based on talent, I think they're neck and neck. 

This is where I am too.  I think Cook has far better instincts and is a better football player than Mixon, even with athleticism factored in.  But Mixon is a complete back who is locked into a 3-down roll and about the only one outside of the truly elite players that can say that.  Meanwhile Cook has a ton of question marks about whether he will ever be that given his injury history and the way Minnesota used him last year.

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

Jacobs' limited tape was good, while the extensive tape on Guice was better than good.

I guess part of my problem is that I am not willing to operate under the assumption that Jacobs is a 1st round pick. The league has been trending away from taking RBs early, so it would be quite a departure for anyone to reach for someone in this draft class. But I guess if Penny can go in the 1st, so can Jacobs. It only takes one team to reach.

On the topic of Guice, I recall some noise out of camp last year that he had 3 down potential, so I'm not sure Jacobs really projects to catch more balls than Guice.

There have been reports of Jacobs going in the 1st round for months now. If he goes in the 1st round, it won't be a penny situation. 

I put a lot of stock in what the pros think. If Jacobs falls to the 2nd, I'll have to adjust my ranking. 

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

You are right that it's not apples to apples to compare Jacobs' pre-draft projected draft capital to Guice's actual draft capital, but that's all the information we have to work with right now.  How people projected the NFL felt about Guice leading up to the draft isn't really relevant to me anymore because we now know how they actually felt about him.  We don't know that yet about Jacobs so the things we've been hearing and the places he's been mocked are all we have to work with.  You are correct that if Jacobs falls to the late 2nd things change a lot and it may end up being presumptive of me to already be calling him a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.

You already mentioned it somewhat in terms of the reasons Guice dropped possibly being dubious but personally I don't really buy Guice's slide being because he played too much Fortnite or whatever the story of the day was.  The strong draft class is also less of an excuse for me because it's not just that he landed in the late 2nd, it's what teams did to avoid him.  The Lions had the fewest picks in the draft but still traded one of them away to move up and grab a relatively mediocre prospect in Kerryon Johnson when they could have just stood pat and gotten Guice.

I do still like Guice, but I think it's fair to treat him as a mid-2nd roundish type prospect and not the mid-1st type guy we all thought he was in March of last year.  If Jacobs slides similarly, it will be fair to call him that as well.

I've seen a lot of people say this, but it's worth noting that Peterson's production dropped off pretty precipitously after the Alex Smith injury, and they'll be without Smith again this year.

With Smith (10 games):
171-723, 7 TD, 4.2ypc
14 rec, 168yds
14.51 fantasy ppg

Without Smith (6 games):
80-319, 1 TD, 3.9ypc
5 rec, 40yds
7.8 fantasy ppg

That's fair, and if Jacobs does indeed get drafted where he's being projected he will be an interesting experiment in the disparity between measurables/production and what scouts are telling us they are seeing on tape.

Still, even more than measurables and college usage are indicators with correlation to success, we all know the #1 indicator is draft capital so if Jacobs is in fact liked enough by teams to go ~30 picks ahead of where Guice went then that is very notable.

Would they?  I'm certain using last year's March evaluation of Guice people would prefer him.  But would the NFL?  It was a strong class but it's not like Kerryon Johnson was some great prospect (it seems like the NFL likes Jacobs a lot more than they liked Kerryon as a prospect) and he went ahead of Guice.

And older player going from 4.2 ypc to 3.9 ypc doesn't concern me. And TDs are fluky. It wouldn't shock me to see that kind of split for just about any RB. Hell, looking at Crowell last year his 1st 8 games were 5.1 ypcr, 5 TDs and last 5 were 4.1 ypc, 1 TD. Melvin Gordon: 5.4 ypc, 10 TDs vs. 4.5 ypc 4 TDs. These splits happen.

And while draft pick is the #1 indicator, it's still faulty as hell. It's basically the tallest midget of success indicators. 

As for Kerryon, I just don't know. All it takes is one team. It's not like all 32 teams like KJ more. There's so much we don't know about the draft process and so much the experts get wrong. I'm just saying it doesn't seem very controversial to prefer the guy with better athleticism and extensive film over the guy with poor measurables and limited college usage. 

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53 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

:confused: Say what now? Personally, I wasn't sure who I'd take at 1.02 last year (purely hypothetical since I didn't draft there), but it was neck-and-neck between Chubb and pre-ACL Guice. So obviously I've got no reservations about Chubb being a full time guy. 

That was before they signed Hunt. At this point no one knows how they plan to use the two active and healthy RBs together 

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18 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

There have been reports of Jacobs going in the 1st round for months now. If he goes in the 1st round, it won't be a penny situation. 

I put a lot of stock in what the pros think. If Jacobs falls to the 2nd, I'll have to adjust my ranking. 

I put a fair amount of stock in what the pros think, too. I put very little stock in mock drafts or offseason fluff journalism. The people saying he's going to go in the 1st are not pros.

Personally, I'm just looking at past drafts and Jacobs doesn't fit the mold (in terms of measurables and production) of a 1st round RB. That's why I'll be surprised. Penny was a surprise because I didn't think he was the 2nd best back in the class. So different reasons, but both will be similarly surprising. 

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Just now, Dr. Dan said:

That was before they signed Hunt. At this point no one knows how they plan to use the two active and healthy RBs together 

Meh. It was a short-term bargain basement deal, not an indictment of Chubb's ability to be a full time NFL RB.

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Speaking of Mixon, he's a guy I'm trying to buy right now. I'm really excited to see him in what projects to be a modern offense. His targets sould increase.

Other guys I'm buying:
Mike Williams - Really flashed last season
Philip Lindsay - Nothing profound, but for whatever reason it's a buyers market for Phil, with some owners selling for late 1st value
Sam Darnold - Looked really good down the stretch. Bell and Crowder should really help the offense, and I like Herndon, too 
Kerryon Johnson - I think he looked as good as Chubb did, though on fewer carries. Workload and health are valid concerns, but he's a stud
Jack Doyle - Almost free and worth the gamble
 

Edit: Jordan Lasley

Edited by Concept Coop
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6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Meh. It was a short-term bargain basement deal, not an indictment of Chubb's ability to be a full time NFL RB.

as a Chubb owner in one of my leagues, I hope so

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8 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Speaking of Mixon, he's a guy I'm trying to buy right now. I'm really excited to see him in what projects to be a modern offense. His targets sould increase.

 

Managed to buy him relatively cheap: Diggs, Mixon 2020 2nd (team finished 8th) for 1.1, 1.2, Aaron Jones, 2020 projected late 1st (team finished 2nd place)

His thoughts were Mixon would see a decrease in volume with a coaching change, and the team wont be able to run because they will often be losing. I was very excited to make this deal

Edited by Dr. Dan

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13 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Other guys I'm buying:

Mike Williams - Really flashed last season
Philip Lindsay - Nothing profound, but for whatever reason it's a buyers market for Phil, with some owners selling for late 1st value
Kerryon Johnson - I think he looked as good as Chubb did, though on fewer carries. Workload and health are valid concerns, but he's a stud

I disagree on all three of these guys and own zero shares. 

Sure, Williams is in line for a bump in targets, but 10 TDs on 43 catches is not sustainable.

Lindsay has a new coaching staff and beat writers seem to think that the starting gig is Freeman's to lose.

As a Loins fan, I'm perpetually down on every RB on that roster.  I feel like the vibe the coaching staff is projecting is that they want to win with rushing and defense, and I'm not certain that KJ's talent matches that style of play.

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20 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

 

Other guys I'm buying:
Mike Williams - Really flashed last season
 

 

 

Anyone have an opinion on Mike Williams? 

What number 1st round pick would you give for him? 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Anyone have an opinion on Mike Williams? 

What number 1st round pick would you give for him? 

I wouldn't bother. I doubt Keenan switches teams, but by the time that would happen, Rivers might not be around and MW's contract will be up. So for at least 2-3 more years, he'll be the WR2 on a team that doesn't throw enough to support two WRs fantasy-wise. 

There are worse ways to spend a late 1st, but I also think there are much better trade targets than MW.

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Just now, tangfoot said:

Sure, Williams is in line for a bump in targets, but 10 TDs on 43 catches is not sustainable.

I'll be projecting something like 60/900/7, but I'm not buying him for his 2019 projection. I'm buying for his upside, the chance that he's a top 10 dynasty WR a year or two from now. He flashed that kind of upside, imo. 

 

6 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Lindsay has a new coaching staff and beat writers seem to think that the starting gig is Freeman's to lose.

I don't put any stock in those blurbs and would still bet on Lindsay winning the job again, even if Freeman starts camp with it.

 

7 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

As a Loins fan, I'm perpetually down on every RB on that roster.  I feel like the vibe the coaching staff is projecting is that they want to win with rushing and defense, and I'm not certain that KJ's talent matches that style of play.

I'm not sure I follow here. How is the coaching staff wanting to win with defense and the running game a bad thing for KJ?

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10 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I disagree on all three of these guys and own zero shares. 

Sure, Williams is in line for a bump in targets, but 10 TDs on 43 catches is not sustainable.

Lindsay has a new coaching staff and beat writers seem to think that the starting gig is Freeman's to lose.

As a Loins fan, I'm perpetually down on every RB on that roster.  I feel like the vibe the coaching staff is projecting is that they want to win with rushing and defense, and I'm not certain that KJ's talent matches that style of play.

I'm not about to buy MW or Lindsay, and while I really like what KJ showed last year, I'm not sure what kind of workload to expect him to get while sharing the backfield with CJA and Riddick. Others seem to also be concerned, though, so part of me feels like I should use this as a buying opportunity. Ability to stay health will be a nagging concern, though. Not sure what you mean about style of play. The appeal of KJ to me is that he looked like he could do just about anything the coaching staff asked him to do. Very well rounded.

I like CC's mention of Doyle, though. I don't have him anywhere, but would love to snag him in my TE premium leagues. When healthy, he was the TE1 on that team, not Ebron.

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13 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I'm not sure I follow here. How is the coaching staff wanting to win with defense and the running game a bad thing for KJ?

Based on what we saw last year and this from his NFL draft profile, I just think that CJA is going to get the "bruiser" work.

Quote

Johnson offers three-down value and could become an early starter, but his frame may not be able to hold up over the long haul if he's forced into high carry totals.

 

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1 minute ago, tangfoot said:

Based on what we saw last year and this from his NFL draft profile, I just think that CJA is going to get the "bruiser" work.

Simply as a football fan I hope you're wrong. Kerryon is so much fun to watch. 

I'm not worried about Anderson - he's a quality backup at best - but Patricia scares me plenty. He's dead set on RBBC and maybe he does want Anderson to play a bigger role than Blount did last year. 

There are certainly potential hurdles, but I prefer to invest in talent and let the chips fall where they may.  

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2 hours ago, Pwingles said:

How do we feel about Cook vs Mixon right now?

I feel like they are in the same tier-ish, but if you owned one, would you trade straight up for the other? Would either side have to add a piece?

Have an offer on the table where the other owner wants to send me mixon and dion lewis for Cook and Pettis. I am not interested in that particular deal, because my team is super bad at wr, and also I have no desire to own lewis.

I do however have Cook in a few too many spots and if the situation arose where i could divest but stay in the same tier of player, I think that would be smart, so I am willing to deal cook if the offer were closer to what I need in that spot.

Just wanted to take you guys' temperature on the whole thing since ive mostly been on the buying end of Cook to this point.

Countered with Cook and Pettis for Mixon and Kirk and he accepted. Im ok with it, at worst a side grade

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

I put a fair amount of stock in what the pros think, too. I put very little stock in mock drafts or offseason fluff journalism. The people saying he's going to go in the 1st are not pros.

They're plugged in. That's why it's surprising when guys slip or shoot up the draft - the consensus is usually a pretty solid indicator of where guys will go.

We'll find out soon enough, so I don't mean to pick a meaningless argument. But big outlet mock drafts, taken as a consensus, are the best indicator we have right now. That consensus has Jacobs pegged for the 24 - 38 range. But again, if the pros don't see it that way, if he slips, I'll adjust my stance on him.

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57 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

They're plugged in. That's why it's surprising when guys slip or shoot up the draft - the consensus is usually a pretty solid indicator of where guys will go.

We'll find out soon enough, so I don't mean to pick a meaningless argument. But big outlet mock drafts, taken as a consensus, are the best indicator we have right now. That consensus has Jacobs pegged for the 24 - 38 range. But again, if the pros don't see it that way, if he slips, I'll adjust my stance on him.

This is the right take plus he got invited to the draft which should be telling enough to anyone who still thinks he is a media creation.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

They're plugged in. That's why it's surprising when guys slip or shoot up the draft - the consensus is usually a pretty solid indicator of where guys will go.

We'll find out soon enough, so I don't mean to pick a meaningless argument. But big outlet mock drafts, taken as a consensus, are the best indicator we have right now. That consensus has Jacobs pegged for the 24 - 38 range. But again, if the pros don't see it that way, if he slips, I'll adjust my stance on him.

Oakland could take him #4 overall and people would just say "whatever Grudens an idiot"

which may be true but people that dislike a player will either be right (he goes later than mocks or "experts" say), or they'll be right ("whatever, that GM is an idiot, no one else had him that high"- even though there is zero way to prove that) 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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32 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Oakland could take him #4 overall and people would just say "whatever Grudens an idiot"

which may be true but people that dislike a player will either be right (he goes later than mocks or "experts" say), or they'll be right ("whatever, that GM is an idiot, no one else had him that high"- even though there is zero way to prove that) 

I think Jacobs goes in the top 15. Multiple teams interested in the 20s. Somebody will move up. JJ is really, really good.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

That was before they signed Hunt. At this point no one knows how they plan to use the two active and healthy RBs together 

I think it's pretty obvious that the Hunt signing was opportunitistic rather than an indictment on Chubb.  It was a free, talented player that is a restricted FA next year, so either 1.5 years of a free talented player or just half a year plus whatever pick they tender him at - maybe even 2nd round. 

Now that Hunt is on the team there is some risk that he performs about as well as Chubb, but I think Chubb is clearly the better player.  Chubb will have the opportunity to show how much more talented he is than Hunt, and if he does it should remove any question about him as an elite NFL RB.  Chubb was drafted at pick 35 even with injury concerns, and I think that is saying a lot.  I believe Waldman had him rated as a better back than Saquon. 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, tkrull said:

How many 1st round invitees weren't selected on the first night last year?

They invite very selectively ever since Rodgers had his embarrassing slide. And if a guy is waiting a while they move him out of the green room so the cameras dont focus on him as they did Rodgers. According to the recent Rodgers smear article, that slide may have affected him significantly on a mental level 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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Over the last 3 years (2016, 2017, 2018), 69 players attended the draft.

One of them, Shaquem Griffin, was never expected to be drafted early. Of the other 68:

54 (79%) were drafted in the first round.

14 (21%) were drafted in the second round, the latest at pick 60 (DB Chidobe Awuzie, 2017).

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19 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Oakland could take him #4 overall and people would just say "whatever Grudens an idiot"

which may be true but people that dislike a player will either be right (he goes later than mocks or "experts" say), or they'll be right ("whatever, that GM is an idiot, no one else had him that high"- even though there is zero way to prove that) 

FWIW, I haven't really passed judgment on Jacobs. I think Jacobs could be good. I just like Guice's odds better.

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28 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

FWIW, I haven't really passed judgment on Jacobs. I think Jacobs could be good. I just like Guice's odds better.

I like Guice way better. I dont understand at all why people like Jacobs  better

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39 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I like Guice way better. I dont understand at all why people like Jacobs  better

And it’s not like his metrics were anything special. In fact, his 40, Speed and Burst scores are all relatively poor to be honest. 

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On 4/22/2019 at 3:46 PM, tangfoot said:

Sure, Williams is in line for a bump in targets, but 10 TDs on 43 catches is not sustainable.

I don't disagree with that. But he had 66 targets last season and could easily have 90+ this season. 10 TDs on 90 targets is not unreasonable for a player who was drafted 1.7 in large part because he is an elite red zone target. I could easily seeing the TDs staying the same, or very close, while the catches and yardage increase. Whether or not he is a buy/sell/hold depends on the price/situation.

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47 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I don't disagree with that. But he had 66 targets last season and could easily have 90+ this season. 10 TDs on 90 targets is not unreasonable for a player who was drafted 1.7 in large part because he is an elite red zone target. I could easily seeing the TDs staying the same, or very close, while the catches and yardage increase. Whether or not he is a buy/sell/hold depends on the price/situation.

what about a late 2019 1st

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On 4/22/2019 at 12:10 PM, tangfoot said:

Is he though?  Guice was pretty universally the 1.02 in all rookie drafts last year.

Not in my drafts, nor most I saw posted. It was very close between him Chubb and Penny.

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51 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Not in my drafts, nor most I saw posted. It was very close between him Chubb and Penny.

Guice went 1.02 in mine.  Penny went 1.04 I believe.  

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11 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Not in my drafts, nor most I saw posted. It was very close between him Chubb and Penny.

He later clarified that he was talking about pre-NFL draft. I agree with you that after the draft it was very close, but pre-draft Guice was indeed the 2nd rookie off the board almost universally.

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On 4/22/2019 at 2:53 PM, FF Ninja said:

 The league has been trending away from taking RBs early

This was true for a brief time period - but was most likely due to their being no great prospects at RB - but in the last five drafts there has been at least one RB taken in round 1 including 4 in the top 10 and three in the top 4.

 

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On 4/22/2019 at 3:23 PM, FF Ninja said:

Meh. It was a short-term bargain basement deal, not an indictment of Chubb's ability to be a full time NFL RB.

I agree with you about Chubb, but the Browns also get Hunts RFA rights so they could conceivably bring him back next season at a relatively low cost.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

This was true for a brief time period - but was most likely due to their being no great prospects at RB - but in the last five drafts there has been at least one RB taken in round 1 including 4 in the top 10 and three in the top 4.

I think it still holds true. I recall looking back at Jamaal Charles' draft and there were so many RBs taken in the first 3 rounds. I'm not feeling up to the task of researching it now, but I suspect the ADP of the top 10 RBs has decreased significantly in the past 10-15 years. 

1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I agree with you about Chubb, but the Browns also get Hunts RFA rights so they could conceivably bring him back next season at a relatively low cost.

I'm aware. It's essentially 1.5 years due to the suspension. That's pretty short and cheap in my book. I understand why the Browns did it, I just don't see it as an indictment on Chubb at all and I expect him to play about 60%-65% of the snaps with or without Hunt.

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I think it still holds true. I recall looking back at Jamaal Charles' draft and there were so many RBs taken in the first 3 rounds. I'm not feeling up to the task of researching it now, but I suspect the ADP of the top 10 RBs has decreased significantly in the past 10-15 years.

I think you may be very surprised.

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In one of my 12 team non-ppr leagues my team got old quickly and I went from winning consecutive championships to being a fringe playoff team. Last season I decided not to make "band aid" trades at the deadline just to squeak into the playoffs.

Now I have the 4th pick in each round of our rookie draft. But, this draft is regarded as a weak one for RBs and that is my biggest area of need. I have tried to trade my picks and some players for RBs, but with no luck. I don't think there is anything I can do, but wait until after the NFL draft and hope there is buzz for 4-5 players after we find out their landing spot. 

Anybody else in a similar situation that has other thoughts or ideas?

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6 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

In one of my 12 team non-ppr leagues my team got old quickly and I went from winning consecutive championships to being a fringe playoff team. Last season I decided not to make "band aid" trades at the deadline just to squeak into the playoffs.

Now I have the 4th pick in each round of our rookie draft. But, this draft is regarded as a weak one for RBs and that is my biggest area of need. I have tried to trade my picks and some players for RBs, but with no luck. I don't think there is anything I can do, but wait until after the NFL draft and hope there is buzz for 4-5 players after we find out their landing spot. 

Anybody else in a similar situation that has other thoughts or ideas?

Might sound trite but I'm serious - don't draft for need.

If guys won't trade for picks pre-draft, they may be more interested in trading for players afterwards. In which case, you'll be glad you took good players.

But I think you may luck out at 1.4/2.4. Jacobs/Henderson/Montgomery could land at good spots for 1.4 and there's going to be someone decent at 2.4 too - I think the draft is about 9 deep at guys that could contribute right away.

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I think the last few drafts have all had at least 2 RBs more outstanding than anyone in this draft. If 1 team or even 2 draft a 1st round RB (Montgomery/Henderson), I think they are reaching. - and more likely no one does. When you look a Jacobs, he had very mediocre production behind one of the best blocking OLs in college football and is barely average in speed.  IMO, there are better talents well into the 2nd round.

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46 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

In one of my 12 team non-ppr leagues my team got old quickly and I went from winning consecutive championships to being a fringe playoff team. Last season I decided not to make "band aid" trades at the deadline just to squeak into the playoffs.

Now I have the 4th pick in each round of our rookie draft. But, this draft is regarded as a weak one for RBs and that is my biggest area of need. I have tried to trade my picks and some players for RBs, but with no luck. I don't think there is anything I can do, but wait until after the NFL draft and hope there is buzz for 4-5 players after we find out their landing spot. 

Anybody else in a similar situation that has other thoughts or ideas?

There will almost certainly be RBs that rise in value after the draft when guys land in places with need.

Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman were not viewed as great prospects at this time last year.  Sure they had their fans but no moreso than the David Montgomery's, Darrell Henderson's, etc of the world.  Then they landed in spots with an opportunity for playing time on day 2 and suddenly everyone wanted to get their hands on them, especially Royce, who wasn't even picked until the mid 3rd round of the NFL draft.

The Bucs, Texans, Raiders, Chiefs, Bears, and Eagles are all seen as good landing spots for RBs and it seems extremely likely that at least 2, if not 3 of them will take a RB by the end of day 2.  Whatever RBs that is will catapult in value.

 

27 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Might sound trite but I'm serious - don't draft for need.

If guys won't trade for picks pre-draft, they may be more interested in trading for players afterwards. In which case, you'll be glad you took good players.

But I think you may luck out at 1.4/2.4. Jacobs/Henderson/Montgomery could land at good spots for 1.4 and there's going to be someone decent at 2.4 too - I think the draft is about 9 deep at guys that could contribute right away.

This is good advice in dynasty.  I think there will be RBs that land in good enough spots to be worth a mid 1st round pick but Andy is right, if there is a guy at another position you like a lot more it is worth grabbing him in spite of need.  Mistakes are amplified in dynasty compared to redraft so getting the best player is always priority one.  This is doubly true in a rebuild where you don't have to worry about immediate need.  Get the best players and you can sort out positional needs in-season via trades when the time comes to contend.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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26 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Might sound trite but I'm serious - don't draft for need.

2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

This is good advice in dynasty.

 

I think it's actually the best advice in dynasty. It's a major mistake that I made early and often in dynasty and still have to really watch myself sometimes and not fall prey to it. I even recall two years ago being a guest on a fantasy podcast before the rookie drafts and I kept hammering away at not picking for need. I then proceeded to draft Corey Davis in two leagues out of need. Easy mistake to fall into and I'm continually working on avoiding it.  Draft BPA, use trades and FA for need.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think you may be very surprised.

It's not as drastic as I was expecting, but I quickly pulled 2016-2018 and compared to 2006-2008 and there's definitely a devaluation of the RB position. Top 10 RB picks ADP:

now vs. then
3.3 vs. 4.3
26.7 vs. 15.3
48.3 vs. 32.7
57.7 vs. 34.3
82 vs. 40.3
94 vs. 55.7
87.3 vs. 66.7
100 vs. 77.7
122.3 vs. 87.3
127 vs. 96.3

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It's not as drastic as I was expecting, but I quickly pulled 2016-2018 and compared to 2006-2008 and there's definitely a devaluation of the RB position. Top 10 RB picks ADP:

now vs. then
3.3 vs. 4.3
26.7 vs. 15.3
48.3 vs. 32.7
57.7 vs. 34.3
82 vs. 40.3
94 vs. 55.7
87.3 vs. 66.7
100 vs. 77.7
122.3 vs. 87.3
127 vs. 96.3

Can you help me understand what these numbers are?

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you help me understand what these numbers are?

I believe it's the ADP of where each RB was drafted, listed down from RB1 through RB10.

So 3.3 vs. 4.3 means the first RB off the board went on average at 3.3 in 2016-2018, but 4.3 in 2006-2008.

26.7 vs. 15.3 means the 2nd RB off the board went on average at 26.7 in 2016-2018, and 15.3 in 2006-2008.

etc

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you help me understand what these numbers are?

Average pick selection of the first 10 RBs selected for 2016-2018 vs. 2006-2008. Maybe that's not the best way to see how NFL GM's value RBs, but it was the first way of comparing that I thought of.

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It's not as drastic as I was expecting, but I quickly pulled 2016-2018 and compared to 2006-2008 and there's definitely a devaluation of the RB position. Top 10 RB picks ADP:

now vs. then
3.3 vs. 4.3
26.7 vs. 15.3
48.3 vs. 32.7
57.7 vs. 34.3
82 vs. 40.3
94 vs. 55.7
87.3 vs. 66.7
100 vs. 77.7
122.3 vs. 87.3
127 vs. 96.3

That is actually a bit drastic, in my opinion. Clearly a trend, at least according to these indicators of it.

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