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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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11 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Not in my drafts, nor most I saw posted. It was very close between him Chubb and Penny.

He later clarified that he was talking about pre-NFL draft. I agree with you that after the draft it was very close, but pre-draft Guice was indeed the 2nd rookie off the board almost universally.

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On 4/22/2019 at 2:53 PM, FF Ninja said:

 The league has been trending away from taking RBs early

This was true for a brief time period - but was most likely due to their being no great prospects at RB - but in the last five drafts there has been at least one RB taken in round 1 including 4 in the top 10 and three in the top 4.

 

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On 4/22/2019 at 3:23 PM, FF Ninja said:

Meh. It was a short-term bargain basement deal, not an indictment of Chubb's ability to be a full time NFL RB.

I agree with you about Chubb, but the Browns also get Hunts RFA rights so they could conceivably bring him back next season at a relatively low cost.

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

This was true for a brief time period - but was most likely due to their being no great prospects at RB - but in the last five drafts there has been at least one RB taken in round 1 including 4 in the top 10 and three in the top 4.

I think it still holds true. I recall looking back at Jamaal Charles' draft and there were so many RBs taken in the first 3 rounds. I'm not feeling up to the task of researching it now, but I suspect the ADP of the top 10 RBs has decreased significantly in the past 10-15 years. 

1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I agree with you about Chubb, but the Browns also get Hunts RFA rights so they could conceivably bring him back next season at a relatively low cost.

I'm aware. It's essentially 1.5 years due to the suspension. That's pretty short and cheap in my book. I understand why the Browns did it, I just don't see it as an indictment on Chubb at all and I expect him to play about 60%-65% of the snaps with or without Hunt.

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2 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

I think it still holds true. I recall looking back at Jamaal Charles' draft and there were so many RBs taken in the first 3 rounds. I'm not feeling up to the task of researching it now, but I suspect the ADP of the top 10 RBs has decreased significantly in the past 10-15 years.

I think you may be very surprised.

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In one of my 12 team non-ppr leagues my team got old quickly and I went from winning consecutive championships to being a fringe playoff team. Last season I decided not to make "band aid" trades at the deadline just to squeak into the playoffs.

Now I have the 4th pick in each round of our rookie draft. But, this draft is regarded as a weak one for RBs and that is my biggest area of need. I have tried to trade my picks and some players for RBs, but with no luck. I don't think there is anything I can do, but wait until after the NFL draft and hope there is buzz for 4-5 players after we find out their landing spot. 

Anybody else in a similar situation that has other thoughts or ideas?

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6 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

In one of my 12 team non-ppr leagues my team got old quickly and I went from winning consecutive championships to being a fringe playoff team. Last season I decided not to make "band aid" trades at the deadline just to squeak into the playoffs.

Now I have the 4th pick in each round of our rookie draft. But, this draft is regarded as a weak one for RBs and that is my biggest area of need. I have tried to trade my picks and some players for RBs, but with no luck. I don't think there is anything I can do, but wait until after the NFL draft and hope there is buzz for 4-5 players after we find out their landing spot. 

Anybody else in a similar situation that has other thoughts or ideas?

Might sound trite but I'm serious - don't draft for need.

If guys won't trade for picks pre-draft, they may be more interested in trading for players afterwards. In which case, you'll be glad you took good players.

But I think you may luck out at 1.4/2.4. Jacobs/Henderson/Montgomery could land at good spots for 1.4 and there's going to be someone decent at 2.4 too - I think the draft is about 9 deep at guys that could contribute right away.

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I think the last few drafts have all had at least 2 RBs more outstanding than anyone in this draft. If 1 team or even 2 draft a 1st round RB (Montgomery/Henderson), I think they are reaching. - and more likely no one does. When you look a Jacobs, he had very mediocre production behind one of the best blocking OLs in college football and is barely average in speed.  IMO, there are better talents well into the 2nd round.

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

In one of my 12 team non-ppr leagues my team got old quickly and I went from winning consecutive championships to being a fringe playoff team. Last season I decided not to make "band aid" trades at the deadline just to squeak into the playoffs.

Now I have the 4th pick in each round of our rookie draft. But, this draft is regarded as a weak one for RBs and that is my biggest area of need. I have tried to trade my picks and some players for RBs, but with no luck. I don't think there is anything I can do, but wait until after the NFL draft and hope there is buzz for 4-5 players after we find out their landing spot. 

Anybody else in a similar situation that has other thoughts or ideas?

There will almost certainly be RBs that rise in value after the draft when guys land in places with need.

Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman were not viewed as great prospects at this time last year.  Sure they had their fans but no moreso than the David Montgomery's, Darrell Henderson's, etc of the world.  Then they landed in spots with an opportunity for playing time on day 2 and suddenly everyone wanted to get their hands on them, especially Royce, who wasn't even picked until the mid 3rd round of the NFL draft.

The Bucs, Texans, Raiders, Chiefs, Bears, and Eagles are all seen as good landing spots for RBs and it seems extremely likely that at least 2, if not 3 of them will take a RB by the end of day 2.  Whatever RBs that is will catapult in value.

 

27 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Might sound trite but I'm serious - don't draft for need.

If guys won't trade for picks pre-draft, they may be more interested in trading for players afterwards. In which case, you'll be glad you took good players.

But I think you may luck out at 1.4/2.4. Jacobs/Henderson/Montgomery could land at good spots for 1.4 and there's going to be someone decent at 2.4 too - I think the draft is about 9 deep at guys that could contribute right away.

This is good advice in dynasty.  I think there will be RBs that land in good enough spots to be worth a mid 1st round pick but Andy is right, if there is a guy at another position you like a lot more it is worth grabbing him in spite of need.  Mistakes are amplified in dynasty compared to redraft so getting the best player is always priority one.  This is doubly true in a rebuild where you don't have to worry about immediate need.  Get the best players and you can sort out positional needs in-season via trades when the time comes to contend.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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26 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Might sound trite but I'm serious - don't draft for need.

2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

 

This is good advice in dynasty.

 

I think it's actually the best advice in dynasty. It's a major mistake that I made early and often in dynasty and still have to really watch myself sometimes and not fall prey to it. I even recall two years ago being a guest on a fantasy podcast before the rookie drafts and I kept hammering away at not picking for need. I then proceeded to draft Corey Davis in two leagues out of need. Easy mistake to fall into and I'm continually working on avoiding it.  Draft BPA, use trades and FA for need.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think you may be very surprised.

It's not as drastic as I was expecting, but I quickly pulled 2016-2018 and compared to 2006-2008 and there's definitely a devaluation of the RB position. Top 10 RB picks ADP:

now vs. then
3.3 vs. 4.3
26.7 vs. 15.3
48.3 vs. 32.7
57.7 vs. 34.3
82 vs. 40.3
94 vs. 55.7
87.3 vs. 66.7
100 vs. 77.7
122.3 vs. 87.3
127 vs. 96.3

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It's not as drastic as I was expecting, but I quickly pulled 2016-2018 and compared to 2006-2008 and there's definitely a devaluation of the RB position. Top 10 RB picks ADP:

now vs. then
3.3 vs. 4.3
26.7 vs. 15.3
48.3 vs. 32.7
57.7 vs. 34.3
82 vs. 40.3
94 vs. 55.7
87.3 vs. 66.7
100 vs. 77.7
122.3 vs. 87.3
127 vs. 96.3

Can you help me understand what these numbers are?

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you help me understand what these numbers are?

I believe it's the ADP of where each RB was drafted, listed down from RB1 through RB10.

So 3.3 vs. 4.3 means the first RB off the board went on average at 3.3 in 2016-2018, but 4.3 in 2006-2008.

26.7 vs. 15.3 means the 2nd RB off the board went on average at 26.7 in 2016-2018, and 15.3 in 2006-2008.

etc

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you help me understand what these numbers are?

Average pick selection of the first 10 RBs selected for 2016-2018 vs. 2006-2008. Maybe that's not the best way to see how NFL GM's value RBs, but it was the first way of comparing that I thought of.

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It's not as drastic as I was expecting, but I quickly pulled 2016-2018 and compared to 2006-2008 and there's definitely a devaluation of the RB position. Top 10 RB picks ADP:

now vs. then
3.3 vs. 4.3
26.7 vs. 15.3
48.3 vs. 32.7
57.7 vs. 34.3
82 vs. 40.3
94 vs. 55.7
87.3 vs. 66.7
100 vs. 77.7
122.3 vs. 87.3
127 vs. 96.3

That is actually a bit drastic, in my opinion. Clearly a trend, at least according to these indicators of it.

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On that list, once you get to RB4, it is about a full round difference. And a very notable difference at the RB2 and RB3 level.

If someone compared these numbers to draft capital numbers you could do an average draft capital difference between the two time periods. It would likely make the difference appear even more dramatic. That is the hypothesis I would want to test. But I have other #### to do right now. Ha!

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20 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

On that list, once you get to RB4, it is about a full round difference. And a very notable difference at the RB2 and RB3 level.

If someone compared these numbers to draft capital numbers you could do an average draft capital difference between the two time periods. It would likely make the difference appear even more dramatic. That is the hypothesis I would want to test. But I have other #### to do right now. Ha!

I'd really like to find top 10 RB salaries by year and compute the % of the cap. I think that would be telling, too.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

On that list, once you get to RB4, it is about a full round difference. And a very notable difference at the RB2 and RB3 level.

If someone compared these numbers to draft capital numbers you could do an average draft capital difference between the two time periods. It would likely make the difference appear even more dramatic. That is the hypothesis I would want to test. But I have other #### to do right now. Ha!

I think it's worth pointing out that those classes were at the high end even for the time.  2008 for instance had 11 players selected in the first 3 rounds which is the most over a 20 year period.  Almost all of the years bookending the study years (2003, 2004, 2009, 2010) had literally half that many.

Likewise 2016, as one of the worst RB classes of the last 20 years outside of Zeke, really destroys the averages for the 2016-2018 set of data.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I'd really like to find top 10 RB salaries by year and compute the % of the cap. I think that would be telling, too.

That part most certainly has shifted massively.

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

That part most certainly has shifted massively.

You'd think there'd be a strong correlation between the two.

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I'd really like to find top 10 RB salaries by year and compute the % of the cap. I think that would be telling, too.

Franchise tags is a good way of looking at how they are valued.  Here are the 2018 numbers.  

 

Quarterback – $23.189 million

Offensive line – $14.077 million

Defensive tackle – $13.939 million

Linebacker – $14.961 million

Cornerback -  $14.975 million

Running Back - $11.866 million

Safety - $11.287 million

Tight end – $9.846 million

Kicker/Punter – $4.939 million

 

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Here's the amount of draft value spent on RB over each 5-year period, according to the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart:

2014-2018    4214
2009-2013    3732
2004-2008    6041
1999-2003    5367
1994-1998    7253
1989-1993    7585
1984-1988    7705
1979-1983    10836
1974-1978    10265
1969-1973    9572

Here's how it looks on a graph, basically just a straight line sloping downward for the past 50 years.

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5 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Here's the amount of draft value spent on RB over each 5-year period, according to the Jimmy Johnson draft value chart:

2014-2018    4214
2009-2013    3732
2004-2008    6041
1999-2003    5367
1994-1998    7253
1989-1993    7585
1984-1988    7705
1979-1983    10836
1974-1978    10265
1969-1973    9572

Here's how it looks on a graph, basically just a straight line sloping downward for the past 50 years.

But relatively flat since the 1990s.

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14 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

But relatively flat since the 1990s.

Not really. The past decade (2009-2018) spent 70% as much draft value on RB as the decade before (1999-2008), which in turn spent only 77% as much as the decade before that (1989-1998). 4 of the 5 lightest RB draft have happened within the past decade.

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5 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Not really. The past decade (2009-2018) spent 70% as much draft value on RB as the decade before (1999-2008), which in turn spent only 77% as much as the decade before that (1989-1998). 4 of the 5 lightest RB draft have happened within the past decade.

Should I have said "comparatively flat" instead?  All I meant is that the rate of decrease has slowed down.  The trend is still downwards, but the slope is far flatter.

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What has changed in LA Rams Offense to result in multiple trade offers for Robert Woods in my 2 leagues?   He is 1 of the few players I have in both teams and I cannot find any recent news or reports that would indicate any real change in his value.  Most rankings have him WR 18-22 range with Kupp 20-24 while B Cooks still floats 10-15 range.  Can the offense still support 3 Top 25 WR?  Is the knee issue with Gurley really causing this much activity for the LAR WR's?  There is no real TE threat there but maybe there is something going on @ Draft rumors that LAR will do something to change their value?  Maybe B Cooks gets traded again... (jk).  

I like Woods.  I like him long term over Kupp, but when you get 7 offers in 2 leagues for the same player, I have to wonder what I missed?  

 

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1 minute ago, Birdie048 said:

What has changed in LA Rams Offense to result in multiple trade offers for Robert Woods in my 2 leagues?   He is 1 of the few players I have in both teams and I cannot find any recent news or reports that would indicate any real change in his value.  Most rankings have him WR 18-22 range with Kupp 20-24 while B Cooks still floats 10-15 range.  Can the offense still support 3 Top 25 WR?  Is the knee issue with Gurley really causing this much activity for the LAR WR's?  There is no real TE threat there but maybe there is something going on @ Draft rumors that LAR will do something to change their value?  Maybe B Cooks gets traded again... (jk).  

I like Woods.  I like him long term over Kupp, but when you get 7 offers in 2 leagues for the same player, I have to wonder what I missed?  

 

What was the best offer you got for him? 

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34 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

What has changed in LA Rams Offense to result in multiple trade offers for Robert Woods in my 2 leagues?   He is 1 of the few players I have in both teams and I cannot find any recent news or reports that would indicate any real change in his value.  Most rankings have him WR 18-22 range with Kupp 20-24 while B Cooks still floats 10-15 range.  Can the offense still support 3 Top 25 WR?  Is the knee issue with Gurley really causing this much activity for the LAR WR's?  There is no real TE threat there but maybe there is something going on @ Draft rumors that LAR will do something to change their value?  Maybe B Cooks gets traded again... (jk).  

I like Woods.  I like him long term over Kupp, but when you get 7 offers in 2 leagues for the same player, I have to wonder what I missed?  

 

No idea. Fwiw I have him in a very active league and haven't received any offers for him recently. 

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2 hours ago, Birdie048 said:

What has changed in LA Rams Offense to result in multiple trade offers for Robert Woods in my 2 leagues?   He is 1 of the few players I have in both teams and I cannot find any recent news or reports that would indicate any real change in his value.  Most rankings have him WR 18-22 range with Kupp 20-24 while B Cooks still floats 10-15 range.  Can the offense still support 3 Top 25 WR?  Is the knee issue with Gurley really causing this much activity for the LAR WR's?  There is no real TE threat there but maybe there is something going on @ Draft rumors that LAR will do something to change their value?  Maybe B Cooks gets traded again... (jk).  

I like Woods.  I like him long term over Kupp, but when you get 7 offers in 2 leagues for the same player, I have to wonder what I missed? 

Quote

Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp (knee) has yet to encounter a setback in his recovery from a torn anterior cruciate ligament, and head coach Sean McVay said the goal is to have Kupp ready for the season opener, according to Ryan Kartje of the Orange County Register.

This blurb isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.  I think it's very likely that Kupp is not ready by the beginning of the season and it will also take most of the season for him to get back to his old self, if that even happens in 2019.

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3 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

What was the best offer you got for him? 

The "best" offer....  C Kupp & John Brown plus a 3 or 4th next year for Woods & James Washington (rejected) or A Jeffery & 1.08 for Woods & 2.10 (rejected). 

Others included Edelman, Hines, and/or Mike Williams (whom I like)....  but the packages were not suitable.  

 

So the possibility of Kupp missing time is new to my ears....  All I could find of value was a LARams piece  from March 20 

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Just now, Birdie048 said:

So the possibility of Kupp missing time is new to my ears....  All I could find of value was a LARams piece  from March 20 

I've heard nothing but positive stuff about his recovery. I even reached out to a Rams beat writer about a month ago and asked him what are chances that Cooper Kupp looks like Cooper Kupp next year and he said 100%.

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57 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

So the possibility of Kupp missing time is new to my ears....  All I could find of value was a LARams piece  from March 20 

Late-season injury almost always means the player won't be 100% by Week 1.  And you're just praying that there are no compensation or follow-up injuries.  I doubt he'll be back to true form until the latter half of the season, at best.

 

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Posted (edited)

The first round of this rookie draft is awful. 

Jacobs is a fine prospect in a solid situation and 1st round pedigree - but if you “earned” the 1.01, this isn’t the payoff you were hoping for.

Harry is being propped up by his devy hype and highlights, but is a very weak 1.02. Brady doesn’t have long and NE is a tough spot for young WRs.

Sanders is at least solid value at 1.03, but he’d go mid-first most years. His situation isn’t as good as it looks on paper, as the Eagles like to share the load.

1.04 - Montgomery will go here most often, but only his biggest fans will like the value.  Not a great situation, as Cohen will dominate the passing down work. You have to question his upside, as he’s a poor athlete, by NFL standards. 

And now we’re in no man’s land. A.J. Brown is in a bad situation. The draft was a statement against Metcalf. Hollywood only has DeSean upside. Feels early for TE and QB. Deebo has injury questions.

The value gets better late in the round, where lucky owners will land Murray, Fant or Deebo, if their league mates over draft the devy hype guys.

 

To me, the obvious move is to trade out of the first 10 picks or so of this draft. I value random 2020 1sts over 2019 mid-1sts. Rookie fever will take hold of at least a few guys in every league, so picks should be tradable. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

 The draft was a statement against Metcalf.

While a number of WRs went ahead of him, he did get drafted in Round 2 by a good organization. It's not that strong of a statement.

I do agree with your overall point though. This is one of the weaker drafts we've seen in a while.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

While a number of WRs went ahead of him, he did get drafted in Round 2 by a good organization. It's not that strong of a statement.

True, but he went 40-50 picks later than we expected. I’m not writing him off or anything, but it seems like the NFL values him a good deal less than we thought they did. 

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27 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

True, but he went 40-50 picks later than we expected. I’m not writing him off or anything, but it seems like the NFL values him a good deal less than we thought they did. 

Guice did last year as well and people didn't hold it against him nearly as much (and I'm not buying that he slid because he plays a lot of Fortnite).

I think Metcalf's ADP will rise slowly the further away from the draft we get, similar (though not to the extent of) to Guice.

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8 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Guice did last year as well and people didn't hold it against him nearly as much (and I'm not buying that he slid because he plays a lot of Fortnite).

I think Metcalf's ADP will rise slowly the further away from the draft we get, similar (though not to the extent of) to Guice.

Is that an argument against Guice or for Metcalf? 

Guice still appeared to be walking into a heavy workload. We’ve always valued RBs in that position over WRs drafted in the same range. Both Sanders and Montgomery will have higher ADPs than Metcalf, for example.

I just can’t talk myself into feeling good about drafting Metcalf in the middle of the first. There were 8 WRs drafted ahead of him. 

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Is that an argument against Guice or for Metcalf? 

Guice still appeared to be walking into a heavy workload. We’ve always valued RBs in that position over WRs drafted in the same range. Both Sanders and Montgomery will have higher ADPs than Metcalf, for example.

I just can’t talk myself into feeling good about drafting Metcalf in the middle of the first. There were 8 WRs drafted ahead of him. 

And that workload certainly appeared to be more (comparing RBs to WRs here) valuable than perhaps what we think of as Metcalf's upcoming workload with a run first Seattle offense. But I think it is nearly a lock he will be the starting X receiver and play nearly every snap. He'll run some vanilla stuff but it will be hard to stop. You might be selling his potential workload short. Considering the larger point of how crappy these rookie drafts look, why not take the shot on the guy that has a chance to emerge right away? I think he has a cleaner path to his team's WR1 status than any of the rest. And he might house a few here and there off of Wilson's playmaking ability. I think he has a big ceiling and his floor is better than people realize. IDK. I agree the draft was a bit of an indictment on him, though. I really thought KC was going to take him instead of Hardman. When they traded up I thought it was a done deal.

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Posted (edited)

Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:

 


RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and enough speed. Can be Zeke-lite for the Raiders, but not a can't-miss talent. Went from being underrated to (arguably) being overdrafted, with pedestrian long run numbers in college and no experience as THE guy. Still, I like his chances to have a solid rookie year and hold good dynasty value throughout the next 12 months. If you don't like what you see, cash out later down the line.
----------------------------
RB Miles Sanders, Eagles  - Another guy who really doesn't have any major weak points. His size and speed are both merely just good and not great, but he has a little of everything. Power, agility, speed, and receiving potential. You worry a little bit about Jordan Howard's presence, but in all likelihood this is the most talented back on the roster.
----------------------------
RB David Montgomery, Bears - He's exactly my type of runner with his compact frame, great balance, and loose hips, but there's one glaring flaw: he's slow and has very marginal burst for the NFL level. Even in college he had very few long runs and it won't get any easier on Sundays. He can be an accumulator and has a chance at being FF ROTY, but there are warts keeping him from being a top tier prospect. I think he's being overdrafted in rookie drafts, but it can potentially work out. A day one starting role is right there for the taking. 

RB Damien Harris, Patriots - With Jacobs flipping the script and getting all the attention out of Bama now, Harris is flying under the radar and, from what I've seen so far, presents good value in rookie drafts. He has a pro-ready combination of power and straight-line burst. His elusiveness and big play skills are just average, but he's one of the highest floor RBs in this draft. One of the scouting reports I read compared him to Cedric Benson and I like that parallel. He doesn't have the electric qualities to ever be an elite pro back, but would be serviceable as a starter right away. I think he gains value in deep mandatory 2RB leagues and is a lot less desirable in flex-y mandatory 1RB leagues since he's more of a high floor/low ceiling type with questionable PPR upside.

RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A tricky guy to figure out because his stats are incredible. He breaks big plays at an amazing clip and has a pretty good combination of size and speed. Yet when I pull up the video I'm not completely sold on what I see. He's a bit straight-liney with a good, but not great frame. Ultimately, I'm just middle-of-the-road on him. I don't hate his game, but he's not a player that I'd draft higher than generic traits would dictate. Given the seemingly poor short-term opportunity, he often falls to a reasonable range in rookie drafts. Gurley's health may dictate his short-term career outlook.

RB Devin Singletary, Bills - He's a logical successor to LeSean McCoy because he has a similar game and running style. Both are jukers who thrive with elusivess and sudden footwork. He's also reminiscent of Frank Gore in some ways, having a similar body type and combine profile. Singletary is hard to corral and can create yards in 1v1 situations. However, he lacks McCoy's speed and will struggle to rip off big plays at the next level. I thought his film was pretty decent, but he has quite a few physical limitations, so you're aiming to a a small target here. His ADP is reasonable and I don't hate his game, but I think he's shaded more towards guys like Ronnie Hillman than McCoy/Gore in terms of outlook.

RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - Big and more mobile than his metrics would indicate, but like a lot of the backs in this draft, lacks vertical explosiveness to break long runs. Probably a backup/RBBC caliber talent, but not hopeless and the opportunity may be better than expected since Dalvin Cook isn't the most rugged or durable back.

 

After that, there's a big dropoff. I don't rate any of the 4th round rookie RBs as being much better than waiver/UDFA fodder. The 5th round has some mildly interesting guys: Jordan Scarlett, Trayveon Williams, Ty Johnson, Rodney Anderson, and Travis Homer. However, the short-term opportunity looks dire and are any of these guys really good enough to justify stashing on your bench for a few years? Perhaps only in deep leagues. My expectations are low. Typically I find 1-2 day three backs that I like a lot and target in all my drafts, but I don't think that player is out there this year.


WR AJ Brown, Titans - When I reviewed this class a year ago, he was the only prospect I would've felt good about in the top 3 of a devy draft. Looking at him a year later, I'm still bullish. Big and mobile. Ideal body type for a possession/RAC-based #1 WR. I see a late first round talent, so it's strange to me that he fell so far. I think the league whiffed a little bit here and that he'll be a solid pro. Reminiscent of people like Demaryius Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster in terms of being a big body who can run fluid routes and evade with the ball in his hands.
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers - Compact and strong. Almost too big. He carries a lot of weight for his height, but it doesn't seem to hamper his mobility. His 40 time is good for his play style and on the field he is a natural athlete and loose runner. He's not an elite prospect, but overall I have a high degree of confidence in his outlook. He is a plus version of Quincy Enunwa at worst and an Anquan Boldin at best. Has a chance to be a PPR machine on this SF team. You don't want him gaining any additional weight, as he's already almost RB-size.
WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots - Tall and rangy, but despite the occasional highlight reel play, his movement and mobility are pretty ordinary. He's more of an old school big body chain mover like Keyshawn Johnson than an athletic dynamo. A rich man's Aaron Dobson, who didn't pan out for the Pats a few years ago. Separation could be an issue. I'm betting on the draft slot and situation as much as the film, because it's merely pretty good and not amazing.
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WR Marquise Brown, Ravens - Explosive, yet absolutely rail thin. Can his 166 pound frame survive in the NFL? You can point towards DeSean Jackson for an optimistic comparison, but others like Paul Richardson haven't been so fortunate with durability. Ultimately, the talent and draft slot are impressive, but the atypical frame adds a considerable layer of risk and is enough to knock him out of my top WR tier even though he was the first WR chosen.
WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks - I've seen Josh Gordon comparisons and I get it because both have rare size and vertical explosiveness. If nothing else, Metcalf is going to be a seam buster that teams need to respect because his ability to get deep and win with speed is very real. The question is whether or not he has anything else to his game. Despite being a SPARQ dream, he isn't necessarily a great athlete in terms of fluidity and suddenness. Can he do more than run a fly route? The ceiling is as high as anyone in this draft, but you can see why teams let him drop despite his otherworldly physical profile.
----------------------------

WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals - His track background is evident in his clips. He covers the first 10-15 yards as quickly as anyone you'll see. Very, very fast. His route running needs refinement, but the raw parts are there to be strong in this department. He's a bit tightly wound and has some hip stiffness in a phone booth when running after the catch, but once he gets into his stride he can gash teams. Very short with short arms and a small catch radius. More drops than ideal. Ultimately, he has some boom-or-bust qualities. There's an interesting ceiling here because his speed/strength combination is dynamic, but he's very small and will be a nonentity in contested situations. His possession game needs a lot of work. In terms of body type and stature, he resembles Wes Welker, but in terms of his impact on the game he's more like Phillip Dorsett. I see a wide range of potential career outcomes, with everything from stardom to total failure seeming conceivable.
WR Parris Campbell, Colts - Like Metcalf, a guy who doesn't really play up to his measurables and fell in the draft despite insane athletic metrics. No doubt he's fast, but that's not always enough. He doesn't seem to have great overall movement or suddenness and is more straight-line. His body type looks a little different, but there are similarities with another former Buckeye speedster: Ted Ginn. I'm intrigued because the Colts have an elite QB in the prime of his career and if Campbell pans out then he could be gold, but I like him less than his draft slot and measurables would dictate. He's been going quite high in my drafts and I'm simply not willing to take him at his ADP.
WR JJ Arcega- Whiteside, Eagles - Big frame and elite possession skills, with long arms and strong hands to win consistently in contested situations. However, his athleticism and movement are borderline, which could make life difficult against the superior defenders at the next level. He does not have clean lower body movement and fluidity to separate in routes and evade after the catch, and is more reliant on guile. The landing spot is great and it boosts his outlook, but ultimately I'm not high enough on the talent to take him at his ADP, which looks to be quite high among this rookie class.
WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers - Plays way faster than his 4.5 40 time. Among the "small/fast" WRs picked on day two, he probably has the most impressive film. However, he's undersized at ~185 pounds and has suspect hands/toughness. With AB gone, the Steelers needed somebody to keep the heat off JuJu and Johnson can be sort of a poor man's T.Y. Hilton/DeSean Jackson here with the ceiling to potentially become an Emmanuel Sanders type, but he's unlikely to become a true #1 target. Given how high Campbell and JJAW have been going in my drafts, I've been surprised to see Johnson sliding so much further, although Ben's age casts doubt over the long-term quality of this situation.
WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs - Ostensibly the Tyreek Hill replacement if Hill is done in KC, but despite some similar qualities on paper, he's not really in the same ballpark. Not nearly as athletic or elusive. Could be a useful depth player for KC, but I don't see starter talent and will be avoiding him at his ADP. I think KC panicked, tried to fill a need, and reached for the wrong player. Time will tell.
WR Miles Boykin, Ravens - Another guy who doesn't play up to his measurables. On paper, he's an athletic monster with a big frame and outstanding overall explosiveness. He's a bit of a looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane though. Seems to coast in games and doesn't play with the suddenness or aggression that you expect from someone with this size/explosiveness. He should look dominant out there, but instead he just looks ordindary. He has an interesting set of athletic traits to work with and if the Ravens can tap into that unlock his full potential then maybe they'll have something special on their hands. He's not a bad athlete and moves fluidly for a big WR, but right now he's a 4.42 guy who plays like a 4.65 guy.
WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers - A poor man's Keenan Allen with a long frame and a game based on quickness and RAC rather than flat out speed. However, despite his RB background, he's not as solid through the lower body and his long frame makes him ungainly in 1v1 situations. He's a competitive player and the type who can produce if called upon. I feel like he could force his way onto the field and become a useful gadget player, but he can't play RB in the NFL and I'm lukewarm on his potential as an outside WR. I consider him draftable at his ADP, but far from a lock.
WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins - A straight-line speedster type whose game reminds of Marquise Goodwin. Suspect route running and agility. I lean towards him being a one-trick-pony in the NFL whose game is too limited to ever become a reliable FF performer, but the draft slot and workout numbers are worth a look.

I haven't really spent as much time on the TEs yet, but so far I like Fant > Hockenson. I'm normally very bullish on TEs and have been a big fan of Eifert, Ebron, and Hurst in recent years. This year I have to admit that I don't quite see what's so special about Hockenson to justify such a high pick. He doesn't appear to be a Winslow or even Ebron level talent as a receiver, but when a TE goes that high it sets off the alarm, so I'll have to take a longer look. Of the day 2-3 guys, Sample looks like a blocker first and a receiver second. Knox has good athletic traits that translate to the field. Sternberger, Warring, and Smith showed flashes.

I haven't spent a minute on the QBs and have nothing to add there right now.

Overall, I don't like this class. My top 5 would be Jacobs, AJ Brown, Sanders, Samuel, and Harry in some order. I'm relatively confident in that group, but after that, my confidence erodes quickly. Damien Harris is a high floor prospect, but the majority of my third tier RBs/WRs look like dice throws to me. Usually I will have some solid targets in the 10-20 range, but this year it's feeling more like pin the tail on the donkey.

Edited by EBF
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11 hours ago, EBF said:

Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:

 


RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and enough speed. Can be Zeke-lite for the Raiders, but not a can't-miss talent. Went from being underrated to (arguably) being overdrafted, with pedestrian long run numbers in college and no experience as THE guy. Still, I like his chances to have a solid rookie year and hold good dynasty value throughout the next 12 months. If you don't like what you see, cash out later down the line.
----------------------------
RB Miles Sanders, Eagles  - Another guy who really doesn't have any major weak points. His size and speed are both merely just good and not great, but he has a little of everything. Power, agility, speed, and receiving potential. You worry a little bit about Jordan Howard's presence, but in all likelihood this is the most talented back on the roster.
----------------------------
RB David Montgomery, Bears - He's exactly my type of runner with his compact frame, great balance, and loose hips, but there's one glaring flaw: he's slow and has very marginal burst for the NFL level. Even in college he had very few long runs and it won't get any easier on Sundays. He can be an accumulator and has a chance at being FF ROTY, but there are warts keeping him from being a top tier prospect. I think he's being overdrafted in rookie drafts, but it can potentially work out. A day one starting role is right there for the taking. 

RB Damien Harris, Patriots - With Jacobs flipping the script and getting all the attention out of Bama now, Harris is flying under the radar and, from what I've seen so far, presents good value in rookie drafts. He has a pro-ready combination of power and straight-line burst. His elusiveness and big play skills are just average, but he's one of the highest floor RBs in this draft. One of the scouting reports I read compared him to Cedric Benson and I like that parallel. He doesn't have the electric qualities to ever be an elite pro back, but would be serviceable as a starter right away. I think he gains value in deep mandatory 2RB leagues and is a lot less desirable in flex-y mandatory 1RB leagues since he's more of a high floor/low ceiling type with questionable PPR upside.

RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A tricky guy to figure out because his stats are incredible. He breaks big plays at an amazing clip and has a pretty good combination of size and speed. Yet when I pull up the video I'm not completely sold on what I see. He's a bit straight-liney with a good, but not great frame. Ultimately, I'm just middle-of-the-road on him. I don't hate his game, but he's not a player that I'd draft higher than generic traits would dictate. Given the seemingly poor short-term opportunity, he often falls to a reasonable range in rookie drafts. Gurley's health may dictate his short-term career outlook.

RB Devin Singletary, Bills - He's a logical successor to LeSean McCoy because he has a similar game and running style. Both are jukers who thrive with elusivess and sudden footwork. He's also reminiscent of Frank Gore in some ways, having a similar body type and combine profile. Singletary is hard to corral and can create yards in 1v1 situations. However, he lacks McCoy's speed and will struggle to rip off big plays at the next level. I thought his film was pretty decent, but he has quite a few physical limitations, so you're aiming to a a small target here. His ADP is reasonable and I don't hate his game, but I think he's shaded more towards guys like Ronnie Hillman than McCoy/Gore in terms of outlook.

RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - Big and more mobile than his metrics would indicate, but like a lot of the backs in this draft, lacks vertical explosiveness to break long runs. Probably a backup/RBBC caliber talent, but not hopeless and the opportunity may be better than expected since Dalvin Cook isn't the most rugged or durable back.

 

After that, there's a big dropoff. I don't rate any of the 4th round rookie RBs as being much better than waiver/UDFA fodder. The 5th round has some mildly interesting guys: Jordan Scarlett, Trayveon Williams, Ty Johnson, Rodney Anderson, and Travis Homer. However, the short-term opportunity looks dire and are any of these guys really good enough to justify stashing on your bench for a few years? Perhaps only in deep leagues. My expectations are low. Typically I find 1-2 day three backs that I like a lot and target in all my drafts, but I don't think that player is out there this year.

 

Thanks EBF.  No comments on Bryce Love?  Or do you lump him in with the 4th rounders because of the injury and the situation behind Guice?

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Yea, I didn't like him very much in college and with the injury and draft slot, I'm that much less excited.

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19 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I just can’t talk myself into feeling good about drafting Metcalf in the middle of the first. There were 8 WRs drafted ahead of him. 

We do not know if that would have been the case if Seattle had a pick earlier in the round. While I do think the NFL draft is a pretty efficient model for predictive purposes we also have to remember that not every team has the same draft board. A few teams that picked WRs before Metcalf was taken could have conceivably made a big mistake.

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

We do not know if that would have been the case if Seattle had a pick earlier in the round. While I do think the NFL draft is a pretty efficient model for predictive purposes we also have to remember that not every team has the same draft board. A few teams that picked WRs before Metcalf was taken could have conceivably made a big mistake.

This reads like an argument against using draft position as a model, more so than anything unique to a Metcalf. Am I wrong there?

Metcalf going between 14 and 32, as was most often projected, is much more valuable to me than Metcalf at 64. That’s all I’m trying to say. A lot of teams were looking for WRs in that range - a lot of them passed on Metcalf for other options - and Seattle, who was extremely active all weekend, was content to let Metcalf fall to them.

I understand the appeal and can’t fault anyone for selecting him as an upside play in that range. (Again, I don’t like any of the options in that range, in terms of value.) I just wouldn’t feel good about doing it, personally.

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Price check

Carson, Marlon Mack, Ro Jo, Penny ranked 

also 

AB, Hilton, ARob, AJG, Julio, Sterling Sheppard. 

 

With AJG, Julio, and Brown getting older. What young WRs is anyone trying to flip for.  

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25 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

We do not know if that would have been the case if Seattle had a pick earlier in the round. While I do think the NFL draft is a pretty efficient model for predictive purposes we also have to remember that not every team has the same draft board. A few teams that picked WRs before Metcalf was taken could have conceivably made a big mistake.

Sounds like the logic I used to justify taking Treadwell in rookie drafts a few years ago.  And we all know how that turned out.

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Mack, Penny, Carson, Rojo

Julio, Brown, Hilton, Green, Arob, Shep 

I’m targeting Williams, Boyd, Kirk, Washington, in general.

If you’re trying to flip those studs, I’m not sure you’ll get good value. You might be able to get Diggs for Julio. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

This reads like an argument against using draft position as a model, more so than anything unique to a Metcalf. Am I wrong there?

 

No not at all - the fact that he was a second rounder is relevant to me. The fact that the Chiefs took Hardman or the Niners took Samuel over him is not necessarily as relevant (it just means those two teams ranked those two guys higher - Seattle on the other hand could have had Metcalf higher than both).

If 2-4 WRs went in the same range/in  the same round, I would still draft the one that I thought was the most talented and that was in the best situation. On the other hand if I loved Butler and he fell to round 4, that would lead me to reevaluate.

 

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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15 minutes ago, wakelawyer said:

Sounds like the logic I used to justify taking Treadwell in rookie drafts a few years ago.  And we all know how that turned out.

I guess - although it seems completely irrelevant to me.

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13 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Price check

Carson, Marlon Mack, Ro Jo, Penny ranked 

also 

AB, Hilton, ARob, AJG, Julio, Sterling Sheppard. 

 

With AJG, Julio, and Brown getting older. What young WRs is anyone trying to flip for.  

I have same RB order as Concept Coop but the WR's I'd sort as: AB, Julio, AJG, Hilton, Robinson and Shepard.

Had a league of mine where AB/Julio owner was hard shopping both for most of the off-season since he is rebuilding. Was surprised he got the teams he got to pay up for them because neither are contenders but if I recall a few weeks ago he got Ridley and solid 2020#1 for Julio and just yesterday got James Washington and another solid 2020#1 for AB.

As a side note I was glad to see both of those trades because my team is a contender but also a team that is about to lose my only stud WR, Tyreek. I got multiple 2020#1's and a ton of youth but the ex-AB/Julio owner wanted mutliple 2020#1's from me or my pick 1.1 this year and a 2020#1. Now when the season starts and  those teams who paid youth for those aging WR's realize they still are not competitive if I'm so inclined I'm pretty sure I'll be able to get them for less then they paid.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

We do not know if that would have been the case if Seattle had a pick earlier in the round. While I do think the NFL draft is a pretty efficient model for predictive purposes we also have to remember that not every team has the same draft board. A few teams that picked WRs before Metcalf was taken could have conceivably made a big mistake.

To be fair in this case we kind of do, as Seattle had multiple picks earlier in the round.  They traded back with one of them and took a safety at pick 47 with the other.

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