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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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4 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

To be fair in this case we kind of do, as Seattle had multiple picks earlier in the round.  They traded back with one of them and took a safety at pick 47 with the other.

fair point - I guess I meant more along the lines of how they ranked the WRs though.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

A few teams that picked WRs before Metcalf was taken could have conceivably made a big mistake.

Yep.  Remember in 2016 when Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Treadwell were all first rounders?  A guy named Michael Thomas went in the second...

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

No not at all - the fact that he was a second rounder is relevant to me. The fact that the Chiefs took Hardman or the Niners took Samuel over him is not necessarily as relevant (it just means those two teams ranked those two guys higher - Seattle on the other hand could have had Metcalf higher than both).

If 2-4 WRs went in the same range/in  the same round, I would still draft the one that I thought was the most talented and that was in the best situation. On the other hand if I loved Butler and he fell to round 4, that would lead me to reevaluate.

60+ picks in, we start to get some approximation of a consensus. That Metcalf was drafted at 64 says just as much about that consensus as it does about how Seattle viewed him. 

Within tight enough windows, the data mean much less. That Isabella, for example, was drafted two spots earlier only tells us how the Cardinals valued Metcalf, and only relative to how they valued Isabella. If that is the point you're making, I agree. 

My point is broader: the leauge doesn't value Metcalf as much as we thought they did. He's a lesser dynasty asset than he was a week ago as a result. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Yep.  Remember in 2016 when Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Treadwell were all first rounders?  A guy named Michael Thomas went in the second...

This is a general argument against using draft position as a model. Why is Metcalf the Thomas in this scenario? 

It's a messy, inexact science. But draft spot is still one of the best and one of the only worthwhile predictors we have. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

it's still one of the best and only worthwhile predictors we have. 

This draft is why I'll never join a devy league or agree to a rookie draft pre-NFL draft. NFL GMs miss a lot, but they are way ahead of the dynasty fantasy football community.

I guess I'll have to take that back if Metcalf, Butler, and Harmon turn out to be studs... but damn those April rookie drafts look butt ugly right now.

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45 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Yep.  Remember in 2016 when Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Treadwell were all first rounders?  A guy named Michael Thomas went in the second...

Yep and i drafted the guy with the hof qb.....sometimes we make things way too hard on ourselves

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

This draft is why I'll never join a devy league or agree to a rookie draft pre-NFL draft. NFL GMs miss a lot, but they are way ahead of the dynasty fantasy football community.

I guess I'll have to take that back if Metcalf, Butler, and Harmon turn out to be studs... but damn those April rookie drafts look butt ugly right now.

Metcalf went at the end of rd 2 to a good spot. Sure lots of other wrs were drafted before him but he’s still a 2nd rd pick. Butler and harmon, well, we’ll see. They should have the opportunity to at least prove people wrong. I think the nfl is trending toward Uber fast 4.3 players over the prototype 6-2/220/4.4 or freak 6-5/260/4.4 guys. Everyone wants the next Antonio brown/Tyreek Hill. 

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Last year where a WR was drafted was a solid guide for the order to draft them but it's awfully early on that group right now and no one really broke out yet. Looking at previous 5 seasons.

2017: I'd say the top 4 valued WR's in that draft are JuJu, Kupp, Godwin and Golladay.  They were WR's 6, 7, 11 and 12.

2016: Michael Thomas the 6th WR chosen is clearly the top guy and only WR who was comp was Hill who was WR18. Second and third most valued WR's from that draft would be Boyd and Shepard, the 5th and 7th WR's drafted.

2015: Cooper was and is the top WR from that draft but then nothing went to form after that. Diggs as WR20 is clearly the second best WR from that class and then you run into guys like Lockett and Crowder who were WR's 10 and 15.

2014- Values have changed for these guys and if you drafted Adams you might not have hung on long enough for the payoff but I think right now today the 3 most valuable WR's from that class are Odell, Davante and Evans who were WR's 3, 9 and 2 from that draft. WR 4 Cooks might come in 4th most valuable so this was a fairly good guide to value but a lot of turds went over Adams.

2013- Hopkins, Allen and Woods only WR's of much value and they were drafted as WR2, WR8 and WR5.

So with the 2018 draft being possibly to early to judge and looking at 5 previous seasons:

Only once was the top  WR drafted still considered the most valuable, and that's Cooper and I'm sure some people have Diggs from that class higher so he's not even a consenus.

Hopkins, Odell, Evans and Cooper are only WR's from a possible 15 that were both a top 3 drafted WR in their class that are still a top 3 valued WR from their class.

Every single season from 2013-2017 at least one top 3 WR from that class was drafted as WR6 or later and every year except 201 at least two of the currently top 3 valued WR's from that class were drafted as WR5 or later.

If Cooper is considered the top WR from his class over Diggs that would put the top WR from each class as WR6, WR6, WR1, WR3 and WR2 with the average were what is now considered the top WR from his draft was selected would be WR 3.6. If Diggs is considered the top WR from that draft the average WR ADP the top WR is chosen would drop to WR 7.4.

If I took what I consider the top 3 currently valued WR's from each class, 15 total, I would count 11 of the 15 were chosen as WR5 or later.

If you looked at each season and took average of what is now considered the top 3 WRs from that class and averaged out their ADP among WR's, and for now I'll just use Golladay over Godwin you'd have this:

2017- WR8

2016- WR6 ( I removed Hill from this equation because of his situation or number would have been higher)

2015- WR10.3

2014-  WR4.6

2013- WR5

 

People can interpret this all they want, or quite likely just think it's to worthless think about at all. To me this shows likely success rate of a WR chosen as WR10 or later is not very promising but not much of a reason to be turned off from a WR who went in the WR5-8 range.

 

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The 2nd round is still quite high overall. Allen Robinson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are two WRs I liked coming out of college who went in that range and have done pretty well. Michael Thomas has been great. None of those guys tested as well as Metcalf though. Metcalf's numbers were freakish. When a player with an elite athletic profile from a major college program falls to the late 2nd, it typically means teams are uneasy about his film and/or something off the field.

It's a red flag, but not a deal breaker. I'm still high on AJ Brown even though I think he went 20 picks later than where he should've. You'd be more confident if he were a first round pick, but ultimately as long as a player doesn't fall TOO far from where I have them in my own mind (like a projected 2nd rounder dropping to the 5th-6th) then I won't adjust too radically.

That's a long-winded way of saying that I think Metcalf's draft fall reflects skepticism from the scouting community, but wasn't so severe as to completely crush his outlook.

I will say that in my rookie drafts he's still been going very high, almost as if he'd been picked where projected. I'm slightly more wary, and have him as a top 10 guy rather than a top 5 pick.

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3 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Price check

Carson, Marlon Mack, Ro Jo, Penny ranked 

also 

AB, Hilton, ARob, AJG, Julio, Sterling Sheppard. 

 

With AJG, Julio, and Brown getting older. What young WRs is anyone trying to flip for.  

RB's I'd go; Penny, Mack, Carson, Rojo for me, add in the caveat that I would not draft Carson at all unless I already owned Penny though.

WR's; Julio, AB, Hilton, AJG, Arob, Shepard, but another caveat that I'd have Julio starting at WR15 rather than top10.  I think it's time to move on from those types of guys in startups.  

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27 minutes ago, menobrown said:

People can interpret this all they want, or quite likely just think it's to worthless think about at all. To me this shows likely success rate of a WR chosen as WR10 or later is not very promising but not much of a reason to be turned off from a WR who went in the WR5-8 range.

ZWK's generic rookie model predicts a 38% drop in VBD from the end of the first (128) to the end of the 2nd (79). That's actually closer than I thought it would be. 

VBD Pos  Player
157    WR    Marquise Brown
128    WR    N'Keal Harry
114    WR    Deebo Samuel
87    WR    A. J. Brown
83    WR    Mecole Hardman
83    WR    JJ Arcega-Whiteside
82    WR    Parris Campbell
80    WR    Andy Isabella
79    WR    D.K. Metcalf

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33 minutes ago, menobrown said:

 

People can interpret this all they want, or quite likely just think it's to worthless think about at all. To me this shows likely success rate of a WR chosen as WR10 or later is not very promising but not much of a reason to be turned off from a WR who went in the WR5-8 range. 

 

The odds favor the top guy chosen, but of course when there are another 20-30 WRs picked every year, it's hard to beat the whole field.

Draft position is the league saying, "We think this guy is about this good."

It's good as a rough approximation of a player's worth. Sometimes they get it wrong, but the odds will always favor the higher pick independent of other variables.

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6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Mack, Penny, Carson, Rojo

Julio, Brown, Hilton, Green, Arob, Shep 

I’m targeting Williams, Boyd, Kirk, Washington, in general.

If you’re trying to flip those studs, I’m not sure you’ll get good value. You might be able to get Diggs for Julio. 

It’s tough the window of age is hit.  I have youth behind them but literally not much value right now moving.  Golladay is another target but costly.  

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3 hours ago, EBF said:

The odds favor the top guy chosen, but of course when there are another 20-30 WRs picked every year, it's hard to beat the whole field.

Draft position is the league saying, "We think this guy is about this good."

It's good as a rough approximation of a player's worth. Sometimes they get it wrong, but the odds will always favor the higher pick independent of other variables.

I don’t think I agree. Guys drafted to NO and GB and Pitt who get to play in high flying offenses with HOF QB’s will have increased chances of success. If you changed “always” to “usually,” I may agree.

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59 minutes ago, kutta said:

I don’t think I agree. Guys drafted to NO and GB and Pitt who get to play in high flying offenses with HOF QB’s will have increased chances of success. If you changed “always” to “usually,” I may agree.

Objectively, draft position correlates with success. There's no ambiguity in that.

That doesn't mean it "always" holds true in every instance. Look at the legendary 2008 RB class. Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, and Rashard Mendenhall were the first four RBs drafted....ahead of Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Matt Forte, and Jamaal Charles. With the benefit of hindsight, we know who had the better careers.

You can't simply say "this guy was picked ahead of this guy and is therefore going to be better". However, more often than not, the higher pick will outperform the lower pick. There's enough data on this to prove it beyond doubt. That's why people stress draft position as an important variable. While we can all think of exceptions like Antonio Brown, Tom Brady, Tyreek Hill, and Antonio Gates, the league is usually pretty good at assessing a player's merit. Even underdrafted players like MJD, Forte, Ray Rice, Charles, Gore, B Marshall, Gronk, and Graham were still relatively high draft picks.

The challenge when you are trying to build a set of rankings is how you weigh subjective analysis and situation against those historical odds. When I am building my rankings each year, I sort guys into tiers based on draft slot (1st rounders/2nd-3rd rounders/4th+ rounders) and then I move them up or down (or not at all) based on how much I like them subjectively. If I really dislike a guy, I'll bump him down. If I really like him, I'll bump him up. If I'm in the middle, I'll leave him where his generic traits would dictate. My general rule is that, no matter how much faith I have in an evaluation, I try not to move a player up or down more than one tier from where his generic draft slot and traits dictate he should be. But I do make those picks when I feel it's justified. I took JuJu over Ross in numerous leagues two years ago. I would take AJ Brown or Samuel over Marquise Brown this year. I'm willing to break the lines when I think it's justified, but you have to be selective because if you do that with every guy then you're going to lose in the long run.

As far as situation goes, I think it's far more important for marginal talents than it is for elite talents or useless garbage. You could put Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Peterson, or Saquon Barkley on any team and it wouldn't matter. They are so good that they can transcend any situation. A more borderline talent like Emmanuel Sanders or Mark Ingram might need an ideal situation to unlock his full potential. On the other hand, a player still needs a certain base level of talent in order to even be relevant. I mentioned Aaron Dobson already in this thread. Selected in the 2nd round by the Pats to a team with a HoF QB in his prime. Did it matter? No, because Dobson couldn't play. Robert Meachem was a first round pick to the Saints in Brees's prime and did virtually nothing. Anthony Gonzalez. Phillip Dorsett. Sammie Coates. Limas Sweed. The examples are endless. If a guy can't play then all the opportunity in the world doesn't matter. Same deal at RB with people like Hillman, Sankey, Yeldon, Abdullah, and Montee Ball. Great opportunity and zero payoff.

That's why I think, apart from looking at the draft slot, your first priority should be trying to develop some understanding of the player's abilities. If you don't like what you see then you might want to avoid a player even if his short-term opportunity looks appealing. On the other hand, if the guy has insane talent then you might want to overdraft him even if his short-term opportunity doesn't look ideal. I filter out a lot of guys right away because I don't like what I see in their metrics and/or clips, and in those cases I don't really care if they're walking into a starting job or playing with a HoF QB. If I'm right about their talent level, it won't matter because they will squander their opportunity. Where opportunity becomes more important, as I said earlier, is with the borderline guys. Let's take a guy like Damien Harris. He's not an elite prospect, but he's probably a viable NFL starter if called upon. Hypothetically, if the Raiders had taken him in the same draft slot instead of NE, he'd likely be a 1st round rookie pick with the combination of talent and opportunity. However, in a murkier Patriots backfield where he's less likely to monopolize touches, you probably bump him down a bit because even though he's a viable pro back, he's not so good that he's obviously going to command a starting role in the future.

But if you think AJ Brown >> Parris Campbell, JJAW, and Mecole Hardman from a talent standpoint then the situations are almost irrelevant. You pick the guy who can play and you let nature run its course. If you are right, you will end up with the better asset.

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5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

RB's I'd go; Penny, Mack, Carson, Rojo for me, add in the caveat that I would not draft Carson at all unless I already owned Penny though.

WR's; Julio, AB, Hilton, AJG, Arob, Shepard, but another caveat that I'd have Julio starting at WR15 rather than top10.  I think it's time to move on from those types of guys in startups.  

What about dynasty - AJG, B Cooks, Kupp, ARob.  

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3 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

What about dynasty - AJG, B Cooks, Kupp, ARob.  

My last one was in dynasty as well.  But lets continue ha.

Cooks, Green, Kupp, Arob, that's my order at least.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kupp > AJG in some cases, but I don't see Kupp as a comfortable #1 on a dynasty squad like Cooks or Green.  

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6 hours ago, Zyphros said:

My last one was in dynasty as well.  But lets continue ha.

Cooks, Green, Kupp, Arob, that's my order at least.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kupp > AJG in some cases, but I don't see Kupp as a comfortable #1 on a dynasty squad like Cooks or Green.  

I figure Cooks will be my target for AJG as the Rams shift to passing and trusting Goff even more as years go by.  Plus Cooks/Kupp/ARob 3.5-4 years younger.  

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On 4/30/2019 at 10:06 PM, EBF said:

Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:

 


RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and enough speed. Can be Zeke-lite for the Raiders, but not a can't-miss talent. Went from being underrated to (arguably) being overdrafted, with pedestrian long run numbers in college and no experience as THE guy. Still, I like his chances to have a solid rookie year and hold good dynasty value throughout the next 12 months. If you don't like what you see, cash out later down the line.
----------------------------
RB Miles Sanders, Eagles  - Another guy who really doesn't have any major weak points. His size and speed are both merely just good and not great, but he has a little of everything. Power, agility, speed, and receiving potential. You worry a little bit about Jordan Howard's presence, but in all likelihood this is the most talented back on the roster.
----------------------------
RB David Montgomery, Bears - He's exactly my type of runner with his compact frame, great balance, and loose hips, but there's one glaring flaw: he's slow and has very marginal burst for the NFL level. Even in college he had very few long runs and it won't get any easier on Sundays. He can be an accumulator and has a chance at being FF ROTY, but there are warts keeping him from being a top tier prospect. I think he's being overdrafted in rookie drafts, but it can potentially work out. A day one starting role is right there for the taking. 

RB Damien Harris, Patriots - With Jacobs flipping the script and getting all the attention out of Bama now, Harris is flying under the radar and, from what I've seen so far, presents good value in rookie drafts. He has a pro-ready combination of power and straight-line burst. His elusiveness and big play skills are just average, but he's one of the highest floor RBs in this draft. One of the scouting reports I read compared him to Cedric Benson and I like that parallel. He doesn't have the electric qualities to ever be an elite pro back, but would be serviceable as a starter right away. I think he gains value in deep mandatory 2RB leagues and is a lot less desirable in flex-y mandatory 1RB leagues since he's more of a high floor/low ceiling type with questionable PPR upside.

RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A tricky guy to figure out because his stats are incredible. He breaks big plays at an amazing clip and has a pretty good combination of size and speed. Yet when I pull up the video I'm not completely sold on what I see. He's a bit straight-liney with a good, but not great frame. Ultimately, I'm just middle-of-the-road on him. I don't hate his game, but he's not a player that I'd draft higher than generic traits would dictate. Given the seemingly poor short-term opportunity, he often falls to a reasonable range in rookie drafts. Gurley's health may dictate his short-term career outlook.

RB Devin Singletary, Bills - He's a logical successor to LeSean McCoy because he has a similar game and running style. Both are jukers who thrive with elusivess and sudden footwork. He's also reminiscent of Frank Gore in some ways, having a similar body type and combine profile. Singletary is hard to corral and can create yards in 1v1 situations. However, he lacks McCoy's speed and will struggle to rip off big plays at the next level. I thought his film was pretty decent, but he has quite a few physical limitations, so you're aiming to a a small target here. His ADP is reasonable and I don't hate his game, but I think he's shaded more towards guys like Ronnie Hillman than McCoy/Gore in terms of outlook.

RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - Big and more mobile than his metrics would indicate, but like a lot of the backs in this draft, lacks vertical explosiveness to break long runs. Probably a backup/RBBC caliber talent, but not hopeless and the opportunity may be better than expected since Dalvin Cook isn't the most rugged or durable back.

 

After that, there's a big dropoff. I don't rate any of the 4th round rookie RBs as being much better than waiver/UDFA fodder. The 5th round has some mildly interesting guys: Jordan Scarlett, Trayveon Williams, Ty Johnson, Rodney Anderson, and Travis Homer. However, the short-term opportunity looks dire and are any of these guys really good enough to justify stashing on your bench for a few years? Perhaps only in deep leagues. My expectations are low. Typically I find 1-2 day three backs that I like a lot and target in all my drafts, but I don't think that player is out there this year. 


WR AJ Brown, Titans - When I reviewed this class a year ago, he was the only prospect I would've felt good about in the top 3 of a devy draft. Looking at him a year later, I'm still bullish. Big and mobile. Ideal body type for a possession/RAC-based #1 WR. I see a late first round talent, so it's strange to me that he fell so far. I think the league whiffed a little bit here and that he'll be a solid pro. Reminiscent of people like Demaryius Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster in terms of being a big body who can run fluid routes and evade with the ball in his hands.
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers - Compact and strong. Almost too big. He carries a lot of weight for his height, but it doesn't seem to hamper his mobility. His 40 time is good for his play style and on the field he is a natural athlete and loose runner. He's not an elite prospect, but overall I have a high degree of confidence in his outlook. He is a plus version of Quincy Enunwa at worst and an Anquan Boldin at best. Has a chance to be a PPR machine on this SF team. You don't want him gaining any additional weight, as he's already almost RB-size.
WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots - Tall and rangy, but despite the occasional highlight reel play, his movement and mobility are pretty ordinary. He's more of an old school big body chain mover like Keyshawn Johnson than an athletic dynamo. A rich man's Aaron Dobson, who didn't pan out for the Pats a few years ago. Separation could be an issue. I'm betting on the draft slot and situation as much as the film, because it's merely pretty good and not amazing.
----------------------------
WR Marquise Brown, Ravens - Explosive, yet absolutely rail thin. Can his 166 pound frame survive in the NFL? You can point towards DeSean Jackson for an optimistic comparison, but others like Paul Richardson haven't been so fortunate with durability. Ultimately, the talent and draft slot are impressive, but the atypical frame adds a considerable layer of risk and is enough to knock him out of my top WR tier even though he was the first WR chosen.
WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks - I've seen Josh Gordon comparisons and I get it because both have rare size and vertical explosiveness. If nothing else, Metcalf is going to be a seam buster that teams need to respect because his ability to get deep and win with speed is very real. The question is whether or not he has anything else to his game. Despite being a SPARQ dream, he isn't necessarily a great athlete in terms of fluidity and suddenness. Can he do more than run a fly route? The ceiling is as high as anyone in this draft, but you can see why teams let him drop despite his otherworldly physical profile.
----------------------------

WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals - His track background is evident in his clips. He covers the first 10-15 yards as quickly as anyone you'll see. Very, very fast. His route running needs refinement, but the raw parts are there to be strong in this department. He's a bit tightly wound and has some hip stiffness in a phone booth when running after the catch, but once he gets into his stride he can gash teams. Very short with short arms and a small catch radius. More drops than ideal. Ultimately, he has some boom-or-bust qualities. There's an interesting ceiling here because his speed/strength combination is dynamic, but he's very small and will be a nonentity in contested situations. His possession game needs a lot of work. In terms of body type and stature, he resembles Wes Welker, but in terms of his impact on the game he's more like Phillip Dorsett. I see a wide range of potential career outcomes, with everything from stardom to total failure seeming conceivable.
WR Parris Campbell, Colts - Like Metcalf, a guy who doesn't really play up to his measurables and fell in the draft despite insane athletic metrics. No doubt he's fast, but that's not always enough. He doesn't seem to have great overall movement or suddenness and is more straight-line. His body type looks a little different, but there are similarities with another former Buckeye speedster: Ted Ginn. I'm intrigued because the Colts have an elite QB in the prime of his career and if Campbell pans out then he could be gold, but I like him less than his draft slot and measurables would dictate. He's been going quite high in my drafts and I'm simply not willing to take him at his ADP.
WR JJ Arcega- Whiteside, Eagles - Big frame and elite possession skills, with long arms and strong hands to win consistently in contested situations. However, his athleticism and movement are borderline, which could make life difficult against the superior defenders at the next level. He does not have clean lower body movement and fluidity to separate in routes and evade after the catch, and is more reliant on guile. The landing spot is great and it boosts his outlook, but ultimately I'm not high enough on the talent to take him at his ADP, which looks to be quite high among this rookie class.
WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers - Plays way faster than his 4.5 40 time. Among the "small/fast" WRs picked on day two, he probably has the most impressive film. However, he's undersized at ~185 pounds and has suspect hands/toughness. With AB gone, the Steelers needed somebody to keep the heat off JuJu and Johnson can be sort of a poor man's T.Y. Hilton/DeSean Jackson here with the ceiling to potentially become an Emmanuel Sanders type, but he's unlikely to become a true #1 target. Given how high Campbell and JJAW have been going in my drafts, I've been surprised to see Johnson sliding so much further, although Ben's age casts doubt over the long-term quality of this situation.
WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs - Ostensibly the Tyreek Hill replacement if Hill is done in KC, but despite some similar qualities on paper, he's not really in the same ballpark. Not nearly as athletic or elusive. Could be a useful depth player for KC, but I don't see starter talent and will be avoiding him at his ADP. I think KC panicked, tried to fill a need, and reached for the wrong player. Time will tell.
WR Miles Boykin, Ravens - Another guy who doesn't play up to his measurables. On paper, he's an athletic monster with a big frame and outstanding overall explosiveness. He's a bit of a looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane though. Seems to coast in games and doesn't play with the suddenness or aggression that you expect from someone with this size/explosiveness. He should look dominant out there, but instead he just looks ordindary. He has an interesting set of athletic traits to work with and if the Ravens can tap into that unlock his full potential then maybe they'll have something special on their hands. He's not a bad athlete and moves fluidly for a big WR, but right now he's a 4.42 guy who plays like a 4.65 guy.
WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers - A poor man's Keenan Allen with a long frame and a game based on quickness and RAC rather than flat out speed. However, despite his RB background, he's not as solid through the lower body and his long frame makes him ungainly in 1v1 situations. He's a competitive player and the type who can produce if called upon. I feel like he could force his way onto the field and become a useful gadget player, but he can't play RB in the NFL and I'm lukewarm on his potential as an outside WR. I consider him draftable at his ADP, but far from a lock.
WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins - A straight-line speedster type whose game reminds of Marquise Goodwin. Suspect route running and agility. I lean towards him being a one-trick-pony in the NFL whose game is too limited to ever become a reliable FF performer, but the draft slot and workout numbers are worth a look.

I haven't really spent as much time on the TEs yet, but so far I like Fant > Hockenson. I'm normally very bullish on TEs and have been a big fan of Eifert, Ebron, and Hurst in recent years. This year I have to admit that I don't quite see what's so special about Hockenson to justify such a high pick. He doesn't appear to be a Winslow or even Ebron level talent as a receiver, but when a TE goes that high it sets off the alarm, so I'll have to take a longer look. Of the day 2-3 guys, Sample looks like a blocker first and a receiver second. Knox has good athletic traits that translate to the field. Sternberger, Warring, and Smith showed flashes.

I haven't spent a minute on the QBs and have nothing to add there right now.

Overall, I don't like this class. My top 5 would be Jacobs, AJ Brown, Sanders, Samuel, and Harry in some order. I'm relatively confident in that group, but after that, my confidence erodes quickly. Damien Harris is a high floor prospect, but the majority of my third tier RBs/WRs look like dice throws to me. Usually I will have some solid targets in the 10-20 range, but this year it's feeling more like pin the tail on the donkey.

Twice you mention Damien Harris as a high-floor guy, but how do you reconcile the situation?  He's in a notorious RBBC system with a team that just drafted Sony Michel in round one 12 months ago.  I loved his talent and he was my RB1 for a long, long time in this class but that seems like a death knell to me.

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What do you guys think of Slayton, Gary Jennings, Ridley, Snell, Warring and other later picks like them?  

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Twice you mention Damien Harris as a high-floor guy, but how do you reconcile the situation?  He's in a notorious RBBC system with a team that just drafted Sony Michel in round one 12 months ago.  I loved his talent and he was my RB1 for a long, long time in this class but that seems like a death knell to me.

It's a bad (and curious) landing spot for Harris but if you really wanted to justify it you can. Sony's knee may never be right and it held him back to start the year. Burkhead may not make the roster now and with the Patriots shifting to a more run based offense philosophy you'd have Sony and Harris splitting the rushing load, while White stays in his pass catching role. If/when Sony misses time you get a RB2 floor out of Harris with a lot of upside based on TDs.

Obviously there's a few "ifs" sprinkled in there but it's not as terrible a landing spot if you delve a little deeper than it is at first brush. I passed on him at 2.04 in favor of JJA-W but considered him there based on the above rationale.

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49 minutes ago, RC94 said:

Slayton

I just took this guy at 3.13 based on him being the only tall and fast guy on the roster right now (if you don't include TE Engram). The Giants WR corp is littered with small quick slot type WRs like Shepard, Tate and Coleman. He wasn't very productive at Auburn but his size/speed combo is impressive. I doubt we see any consistent production from his this season but a few splash plays would not surprise me and I think he's a good end of bench stash.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's a bad (and curious) landing spot for Harris but if you really wanted to justify it you can. Sony's knee may never be right and it held him back to start the year. Burkhead may not make the roster now and with the Patriots shifting to a more run based offense philosophy you'd have Sony and Harris splitting the rushing load, while White stays in his pass catching role. If/when Sony misses time you get a RB2 floor out of Harris with a lot of upside based on TDs.

Obviously there's a few "ifs" sprinkled in there but it's not as terrible a landing spot if you delve a little deeper than it is at first brush. I passed on him at 2.04 in favor of JJA-W but considered him there based on the above rationale.

Ok I guess I may have miscontrued EBF's post a little bit, I felt like he was putting him in that tier right after top 5.  This is an entirely different reference point and would agree much more about this ADP range.  Still curious to hear high floor (or high anything) with Harris given NEP.

I feel like Fox Mulder here - I Want To Believe.  I've long been a fan of Harris but this seems like almost every risk imaginable - best case RBBC worst case potential (younger) bellcow RB ahead of him, a QB decaying (albeit gracefully) on the vine, a HC that has to have one foot out the door, a team being handed over to said HC's protege (kind of?) with an organizational history of bringing in role players to peel out touches to, and a defense that isn't really good enough to play Tressel Ball with in the first place - I don't think there's a single thing I feel good about in his situation.  If a guy I wasn't particularly high on went here like Singletary he'd be dead to me but I kinda just can't quit Harris.

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Despite being just 14 picks apart I got Montgomery flirting with being a top 5 pick and Harris as someone outside my top 20 and if they had traded draft spots I'd have Harris ranked where Montgomery is and vice versa.  When you get drafted matters for RB's IMO, but here is a case of where you got drafted being the massive driver of value. That's very Captain Obvious of me but still sometimes see people say all they care about is talent or pedigree.

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On 5/1/2019 at 12:49 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

I guess - although it seems completely irrelevant to me.

Good luck with your draft then.  But, for me, when a guy gets drafted much later than expected, there's probably a reason.  And I'm going to look for it.  But the theory that you and Seattle know more than the other 31 teams could also be true.  If that's the case, just like Seattle, you'll get great value.

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5 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Twice you mention Damien Harris as a high-floor guy, but how do you reconcile the situation? 

I was strictly talking about his talent, not the team he is on. He looks like a pretty safe projection to become a decent NFL back. I don't think he's special, but I think he has less bust risk than all the other day two backs.

Situation is relevant, but for me it's a tiebreaker only. Good players can overcome bad situations and bad players can squander good situations. What are Bishop Sankey and Montee Ball up to these days? I mostly draft based on talent. There have been cases in the past where I've gotten it wrong and wasted roster spots for years on guys like Bernard Pierce and Christine Michael who were in a similar logjam coming out of the draft, but the nice thing is that enough people draft on situation that you typically get a big discount on guys who land in bad spots. Those two backs I mentioned had 2nd round rookie draft ADP. Same with Harris this year. You can get him much cheaper than Montgomery and Sanders, so there's no point comparing them directly. The price points are very different.

My top 5 rookies in no particular order are Jacobs, Sanders, AJ Brown, Samuel, and Harry. Harris would become a candidate in the next cluster. I don't have a clear top 10 because QB/TE value depends on format and thus it's hard to say what to do with people like Murray and Fant, but I'm guessing I'd have Harris ranked around 10th-12th. Since I can potentially get AJ Brown or Samuel in that range, Harris wouldn't necessarily be my target if I had the 10th-12th pick. However, in my early drafts he has been falling to around the 18th-20th spot. That seems like good value for him.

Short-term? Yea, it's a bit ugly with James White and Sony Michel already in the fold. Harris isn't a great receiver or an ELITE runner, so the upside even if he does become the guy is more modest than someone like Saquon or Mixon. Still, he's instantly the best power runner on the team and situations can fluctuate quickly in the NFL due to injuries, trades, and free agency. I don't usually expect instant impact from my rookie picks (unless maybe it's a RB I'm taking in the top 5) and I don't expect anything much from Harris in year one, but there comes a point in round two where I'd rather have the viable NFL back in a bad situation than inferior talents who don't look like they can play.

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33 minutes ago, wakelawyer said:

Good luck with your draft then.  But, for me, when a guy gets drafted much later than expected, there's probably a reason.  And I'm going to look for it.  But the theory that you and Seattle know more than the other 31 teams could also be true.  If that's the case, just like Seattle, you'll get great value.

But the example you used (Treadwell) was counterproductive to your argument when he was a first round pick and a guy taken in the second round of the draft (Michael Thomas) has seriously outperformed him.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But the example you used (Treadwell) was counterproductive to your argument when he was a first round pick and a guy taken in the second round of the draft (Michael Thomas) has seriously outperformed him.

And Tom Brady was a 6th round draft pick.  Not sure where that gets us.  Did Michael Thomas fall in the draft as well?  Did he rise?  I'm not really sure.  There will always be examples of later drafted players out-performing earlier drafted players.  My point dealt with the fall from projected slot to actual slot for Treadwell and Metcalf -- it had nothing to do with strict correlation between draft slot and NFL performance.  If you remember you said that Metcalf fell (or that his draft slot was irrelevant) because the Seahawks didn't draft earlier so we should ignore the fall because the fall didn't reflect a loss in value.  Although picks 29 and 47 were  still much lower than Metcalf was projected and the Seahawks had those picks but didn't pick Metcalf.  But let's ignore inconvenient facts.

The point was that both WRs fell from where they were projected.  Treadwell fell considerably from where he was projected to go.  So did Metcalf, with him going as high as 6 or 7 in many drafts.  I've become more cautious after Treadwell and will be spending time trying to see if there's a reason for the decline that should make me look in a different direction.   You find it irrelevant.  My guess is that you'll have a lot of shares of Metcalf and I'll probably have none. 

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Price check on Austin Seferian-Jenkins?

The Pats drafted ten players and none were TEs, with Harry as the lone WR. With the retirement of Gronk and Gordon flaming out, soo many targets are up for grabs in that offense. 

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3 hours ago, wakelawyer said:

And Tom Brady was a 6th round draft pick.  Not sure where that gets us.  Did Michael Thomas fall in the draft as well?  Did he rise?  I'm not really sure.  There will always be examples of later drafted players out-performing earlier drafted players.  My point dealt with the fall from projected slot to actual slot for Treadwell and Metcalf -- it had nothing to do with strict correlation between draft slot and NFL performance.  If you remember you said that Metcalf fell (or that his draft slot was irrelevant) because the Seahawks didn't draft earlier so we should ignore the fall because the fall didn't reflect a loss in value.  Although picks 29 and 47 were  still much lower than Metcalf was projected and the Seahawks had those picks but didn't pick Metcalf.  But let's ignore inconvenient facts.

The point was that both WRs fell from where they were projected.  Treadwell fell considerably from where he was projected to go.  So did Metcalf, with him going as high as 6 or 7 in many drafts.  I've become more cautious after Treadwell and will be spending time trying to see if there's a reason for the decline that should make me look in a different direction.   You find it irrelevant.  My guess is that you'll have a lot of shares of Metcalf and I'll probably have none. 

I never said his draft slot was irrelevant- go back and re-read what I said and my follow up to Coop’s question.

My only point as to Seattle had to do with him being the 9th WR taken. We don’t know if Seattle had him rated higher than Isabella or Samuel or one of the other WRs taken before him. It’s possible they did not, but it’s also possible they did.

I brought up Thomas because he was drafted after Treadwell, yet he outperformed him. It can and does happen. 

As to the concept of guys falling from where they were projected - what does that really mean? Who’s doing the projections, ransoms mocks?  We’ll see what happens. 

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So another see-saw with Tyreek. Irrespective of whether you think he’s a PoS, what’s his value?

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On 5/1/2019 at 11:18 AM, JoeJoe88 said:

Yep.  Remember in 2016 when Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Treadwell were all first rounders?  A guy named Michael Thomas went in the second...

I remember seeing guys draft Jordan Mathews before Beckham. You know, teams are sometimes wrong so I guess they always are. That’s a really, really poor argument in favour of Metcalf. They are right more than they are wrong no matter how you slice it.

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24 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

So another see-saw with Tyreek. Irrespective of whether you think he’s a PoS, what’s his value?

Probably a 3rd for me, but others probably want Diggs still. I doubt they are actually offering much though.

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2 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

So another see-saw with Tyreek. Irrespective of whether you think he’s a PoS, what’s his value?

Would be my WR2 if he was exposed to the rookie draft.

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Where are we at with Julio and AJG? Seems Julio’s value much higher now.

What type of pick on top of someone like Golladay or Corey Davis would be needed to get a deal done for Julio?

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31 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Where are we at with Julio and AJG? Seems Julio’s value much higher now.

What type of pick on top of someone like Golladay or Corey Davis would be needed to get a deal done for Julio?

I think they’re worth more to competitive owners than they’re likely to command on the market. Rebuilding teams have no interest and teams in the middle will be hesitant. I think Julio should command  a mid-1st on top of guys like Golladay and Davis, but whether you can get that is another matter. I’m not sure Green will land you one of them straight up.

If you’re rebuilding, I think you start with a 2020 1st and get whatever you can on top of that. If you’re looking to get a young, high end WR2, I think that ship has sailed, especially for Green.

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On 5/2/2019 at 12:18 PM, zeeshan2 said:

Christian Kirk value now?

I'm not sure its changed at all from the draft. I think he's still the long term slot guy, he got more competition for targets(but that was always assumed to happen) and a (potentially huge) QB upgrade. 

Rookie pick wise, I'd value him at 1.6. He looked pretty good already in the NFL on an awful offense, so that gives him a leg up on Isabella and Butler for me. I would bet on Kirk being the Cards #1 this season, or at least 1B if Fitz can stave off father time.

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34 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'm not sure its changed at all from the draft.

Only Kirk owners would say this.

New coaching staff drafted 'their guys' to come in, and multiple of them.

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Posted (edited)

Finally moved Gurley:

Gave Gurley, got Kelce and 2020 1st

Wasn't thrilled with the return but I'm a contender here and it's TE premium

Where is Damien Williams value now that he's firmly "the role" he had last year?

edit: I conflated a couple of different trades/discussions and had this listed incorrectly initially.

Edited by Hankmoody

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42 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Only Kirk owners would say this.

New coaching staff drafted 'their guys' to come in, and multiple of them.

They want to run 4 WR sets and need the bodies to do that. I guess they could have watched Kirk’s 18’ tape and decided they needed to replace him, but that doesn’t seem very likely to me.

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49 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Finally moved Gurley:

Gave Gurley, got Kelce and Diggs

Wasn't thrilled with the return but I'm a contender here and this puts two starters into my lineup. 

Where is Damien Williams value now that he's firmly "the role" he had last year?

Well I've seen him go right around Josh Jacobs everytime in redrafts. Same in a couple startups I did recently. I'd certainly take Jacobs for the longer term but I'd probably rather have Williams than most of the top rookie WRs. So right around 1.03/1.04 maybe. I think it's much more likely that at least a couple of these WRs hit, but it's kind of hard to know which ones. So there is a bird in the hand argument in favor of Williams. But the likelihood of him keeping the job beyond this season are pretty small and is a big drag to his value. 1.04 probably buys him but not sure anyone is going to offer that. For the 1.05 or 1.06 I probably hold him. Maybe OTC for Metcalf or Sanders.

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43 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

They want to run 4 WR sets and need the bodies to do that. I guess they could have watched Kirk’s 18’ tape and decided they needed to replace him, but that doesn’t seem very likely to me.

I didn't say he was being replaced, I said his value has changed.  Downward.  Significantly.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Only Kirk owners would say this.

New coaching staff drafted 'their guys' to come in, and multiple of them.

I'm not a Kirk owner in any league, though I am very interested if owners are selling.

They had 2 WR's with any talent on the roster, 1 of whom is a retirement threat every off season. It'd been irresponsible not to draft a WR highly. They took 2 because Butler fell to day 3, and having him learn from Fitz could be huge for his concentration/inconsistency issues. 

Fully expect Kirk/Fitz/Isabella to be the top-3 this year, with Butler replacing Fitz whenever he hangs it up. 

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1 minute ago, travdogg said:

I'm not a Kirk owner in any league, though I am very interested if owners are selling.

Odds are that he'll get cheaper before he gets more expensive.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Well I've seen him go right around Josh Jacobs everytime in redrafts. Same in a couple startups I did recently. I'd certainly take Jacobs for the longer term but I'd probably rather have Williams than most of the top rookie WRs. So right around 1.03/1.04 maybe. I think it's much more likely that at least a couple of these WRs hit, but it's kind of hard to know which ones. So there is a bird in the hand argument in favor of Williams. But the likelihood of him keeping the job beyond this season are pretty small and is a big drag to his value. 1.04 probably buys him but not sure anyone is going to offer that. For the 1.05 or 1.06 I probably hold him. Maybe OTC for Metcalf or Sanders.

I'm in the same boat. Harder to find a player with a wider range of outcomes right now; could be a legit, back end RB1 based upon a small sample in KC, but too me that is overly bullish. He could also be on the bench by week 3. He's the starter and doesn't seem to have either a high pick or coveted FA signing to compete with, but, as what has previously been posted, he's no better than a coin toss to the "the guy" for the long term.

I have him for cheap in my auction league and will keep him but recognize he could be a JAG at any moment.

Edited by Ack88
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10 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I didn't say he was being replaced, I said his value has changed.  Downward.  Significantly.

I guess if you thought his value came from a lack of other options. 

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

I guess if you thought his value came from a lack of other options. 

Maybe I'm the only one looking at it from this lens:  There are now 3 WR2s on this roster.  It's a complete guess which one of them will be the most fantasy relevant going forward.  I don't think the talent difference between the three is significant, and I have no idea how the pecking order is going to shake out after Fitzgerald.

It's a ####### quagmire to me.

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3 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

Where are we at with Julio and AJG? Seems Julio’s value much higher now.

What type of pick on top of someone like Golladay or Corey Davis would be needed to get a deal done for Julio?

I dont think id give up golladay for julio....depends on team makeup though and contention/rebuild.....

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44 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Well I've seen him go right around Josh Jacobs everytime in redrafts. Same in a couple startups I did recently. I'd certainly take Jacobs for the longer term but I'd probably rather have Williams than most of the top rookie WRs. So right around 1.03/1.04 maybe. I think it's much more likely that at least a couple of these WRs hit, but it's kind of hard to know which ones. So there is a bird in the hand argument in favor of Williams. But the likelihood of him keeping the job beyond this season are pretty small and is a big drag to his value. 1.04 probably buys him but not sure anyone is going to offer that. For the 1.05 or 1.06 I probably hold him. Maybe OTC for Metcalf or Sanders.

Who's doing redrafts now?  That's going to skew things a lot for a dynasty value thread.  Are you saying he should pull 1.03 type value?  I'd trade him for that in a flash.  I offered him up pre-NFL draft for 2.03 and was RNC but I understood that one with the risk.

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