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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

RB's I'd go; Penny, Mack, Carson, Rojo for me, add in the caveat that I would not draft Carson at all unless I already owned Penny though.

WR's; Julio, AB, Hilton, AJG, Arob, Shepard, but another caveat that I'd have Julio starting at WR15 rather than top10.  I think it's time to move on from those types of guys in startups.  

What about dynasty - AJG, B Cooks, Kupp, ARob.  

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3 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

What about dynasty - AJG, B Cooks, Kupp, ARob.  

My last one was in dynasty as well.  But lets continue ha.

Cooks, Green, Kupp, Arob, that's my order at least.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kupp > AJG in some cases, but I don't see Kupp as a comfortable #1 on a dynasty squad like Cooks or Green.  

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6 hours ago, Zyphros said:

My last one was in dynasty as well.  But lets continue ha.

Cooks, Green, Kupp, Arob, that's my order at least.  I wouldn't mind seeing Kupp > AJG in some cases, but I don't see Kupp as a comfortable #1 on a dynasty squad like Cooks or Green.  

I figure Cooks will be my target for AJG as the Rams shift to passing and trusting Goff even more as years go by.  Plus Cooks/Kupp/ARob 3.5-4 years younger.  

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On 4/30/2019 at 10:06 PM, EBF said:

Tentative rookie RB/WR tiers after diving into clips and stats this weekend:

 


RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders - No major weaknesses and walks into a starting role. Power, hands, elusiveness, and enough speed. Can be Zeke-lite for the Raiders, but not a can't-miss talent. Went from being underrated to (arguably) being overdrafted, with pedestrian long run numbers in college and no experience as THE guy. Still, I like his chances to have a solid rookie year and hold good dynasty value throughout the next 12 months. If you don't like what you see, cash out later down the line.
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RB Miles Sanders, Eagles  - Another guy who really doesn't have any major weak points. His size and speed are both merely just good and not great, but he has a little of everything. Power, agility, speed, and receiving potential. You worry a little bit about Jordan Howard's presence, but in all likelihood this is the most talented back on the roster.
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RB David Montgomery, Bears - He's exactly my type of runner with his compact frame, great balance, and loose hips, but there's one glaring flaw: he's slow and has very marginal burst for the NFL level. Even in college he had very few long runs and it won't get any easier on Sundays. He can be an accumulator and has a chance at being FF ROTY, but there are warts keeping him from being a top tier prospect. I think he's being overdrafted in rookie drafts, but it can potentially work out. A day one starting role is right there for the taking. 

RB Damien Harris, Patriots - With Jacobs flipping the script and getting all the attention out of Bama now, Harris is flying under the radar and, from what I've seen so far, presents good value in rookie drafts. He has a pro-ready combination of power and straight-line burst. His elusiveness and big play skills are just average, but he's one of the highest floor RBs in this draft. One of the scouting reports I read compared him to Cedric Benson and I like that parallel. He doesn't have the electric qualities to ever be an elite pro back, but would be serviceable as a starter right away. I think he gains value in deep mandatory 2RB leagues and is a lot less desirable in flex-y mandatory 1RB leagues since he's more of a high floor/low ceiling type with questionable PPR upside.

RB Darrell Henderson, Rams - A tricky guy to figure out because his stats are incredible. He breaks big plays at an amazing clip and has a pretty good combination of size and speed. Yet when I pull up the video I'm not completely sold on what I see. He's a bit straight-liney with a good, but not great frame. Ultimately, I'm just middle-of-the-road on him. I don't hate his game, but he's not a player that I'd draft higher than generic traits would dictate. Given the seemingly poor short-term opportunity, he often falls to a reasonable range in rookie drafts. Gurley's health may dictate his short-term career outlook.

RB Devin Singletary, Bills - He's a logical successor to LeSean McCoy because he has a similar game and running style. Both are jukers who thrive with elusivess and sudden footwork. He's also reminiscent of Frank Gore in some ways, having a similar body type and combine profile. Singletary is hard to corral and can create yards in 1v1 situations. However, he lacks McCoy's speed and will struggle to rip off big plays at the next level. I thought his film was pretty decent, but he has quite a few physical limitations, so you're aiming to a a small target here. His ADP is reasonable and I don't hate his game, but I think he's shaded more towards guys like Ronnie Hillman than McCoy/Gore in terms of outlook.

RB Alexander Mattison, Vikings - Big and more mobile than his metrics would indicate, but like a lot of the backs in this draft, lacks vertical explosiveness to break long runs. Probably a backup/RBBC caliber talent, but not hopeless and the opportunity may be better than expected since Dalvin Cook isn't the most rugged or durable back.

 

After that, there's a big dropoff. I don't rate any of the 4th round rookie RBs as being much better than waiver/UDFA fodder. The 5th round has some mildly interesting guys: Jordan Scarlett, Trayveon Williams, Ty Johnson, Rodney Anderson, and Travis Homer. However, the short-term opportunity looks dire and are any of these guys really good enough to justify stashing on your bench for a few years? Perhaps only in deep leagues. My expectations are low. Typically I find 1-2 day three backs that I like a lot and target in all my drafts, but I don't think that player is out there this year. 


WR AJ Brown, Titans - When I reviewed this class a year ago, he was the only prospect I would've felt good about in the top 3 of a devy draft. Looking at him a year later, I'm still bullish. Big and mobile. Ideal body type for a possession/RAC-based #1 WR. I see a late first round talent, so it's strange to me that he fell so far. I think the league whiffed a little bit here and that he'll be a solid pro. Reminiscent of people like Demaryius Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster in terms of being a big body who can run fluid routes and evade with the ball in his hands.
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers - Compact and strong. Almost too big. He carries a lot of weight for his height, but it doesn't seem to hamper his mobility. His 40 time is good for his play style and on the field he is a natural athlete and loose runner. He's not an elite prospect, but overall I have a high degree of confidence in his outlook. He is a plus version of Quincy Enunwa at worst and an Anquan Boldin at best. Has a chance to be a PPR machine on this SF team. You don't want him gaining any additional weight, as he's already almost RB-size.
WR N'Keal Harry, Patriots - Tall and rangy, but despite the occasional highlight reel play, his movement and mobility are pretty ordinary. He's more of an old school big body chain mover like Keyshawn Johnson than an athletic dynamo. A rich man's Aaron Dobson, who didn't pan out for the Pats a few years ago. Separation could be an issue. I'm betting on the draft slot and situation as much as the film, because it's merely pretty good and not amazing.
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WR Marquise Brown, Ravens - Explosive, yet absolutely rail thin. Can his 166 pound frame survive in the NFL? You can point towards DeSean Jackson for an optimistic comparison, but others like Paul Richardson haven't been so fortunate with durability. Ultimately, the talent and draft slot are impressive, but the atypical frame adds a considerable layer of risk and is enough to knock him out of my top WR tier even though he was the first WR chosen.
WR DK Metcalf, Seahawks - I've seen Josh Gordon comparisons and I get it because both have rare size and vertical explosiveness. If nothing else, Metcalf is going to be a seam buster that teams need to respect because his ability to get deep and win with speed is very real. The question is whether or not he has anything else to his game. Despite being a SPARQ dream, he isn't necessarily a great athlete in terms of fluidity and suddenness. Can he do more than run a fly route? The ceiling is as high as anyone in this draft, but you can see why teams let him drop despite his otherworldly physical profile.
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WR Andy Isabella, Cardinals - His track background is evident in his clips. He covers the first 10-15 yards as quickly as anyone you'll see. Very, very fast. His route running needs refinement, but the raw parts are there to be strong in this department. He's a bit tightly wound and has some hip stiffness in a phone booth when running after the catch, but once he gets into his stride he can gash teams. Very short with short arms and a small catch radius. More drops than ideal. Ultimately, he has some boom-or-bust qualities. There's an interesting ceiling here because his speed/strength combination is dynamic, but he's very small and will be a nonentity in contested situations. His possession game needs a lot of work. In terms of body type and stature, he resembles Wes Welker, but in terms of his impact on the game he's more like Phillip Dorsett. I see a wide range of potential career outcomes, with everything from stardom to total failure seeming conceivable.
WR Parris Campbell, Colts - Like Metcalf, a guy who doesn't really play up to his measurables and fell in the draft despite insane athletic metrics. No doubt he's fast, but that's not always enough. He doesn't seem to have great overall movement or suddenness and is more straight-line. His body type looks a little different, but there are similarities with another former Buckeye speedster: Ted Ginn. I'm intrigued because the Colts have an elite QB in the prime of his career and if Campbell pans out then he could be gold, but I like him less than his draft slot and measurables would dictate. He's been going quite high in my drafts and I'm simply not willing to take him at his ADP.
WR JJ Arcega- Whiteside, Eagles - Big frame and elite possession skills, with long arms and strong hands to win consistently in contested situations. However, his athleticism and movement are borderline, which could make life difficult against the superior defenders at the next level. He does not have clean lower body movement and fluidity to separate in routes and evade after the catch, and is more reliant on guile. The landing spot is great and it boosts his outlook, but ultimately I'm not high enough on the talent to take him at his ADP, which looks to be quite high among this rookie class.
WR Diontae Johnson, Steelers - Plays way faster than his 4.5 40 time. Among the "small/fast" WRs picked on day two, he probably has the most impressive film. However, he's undersized at ~185 pounds and has suspect hands/toughness. With AB gone, the Steelers needed somebody to keep the heat off JuJu and Johnson can be sort of a poor man's T.Y. Hilton/DeSean Jackson here with the ceiling to potentially become an Emmanuel Sanders type, but he's unlikely to become a true #1 target. Given how high Campbell and JJAW have been going in my drafts, I've been surprised to see Johnson sliding so much further, although Ben's age casts doubt over the long-term quality of this situation.
WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs - Ostensibly the Tyreek Hill replacement if Hill is done in KC, but despite some similar qualities on paper, he's not really in the same ballpark. Not nearly as athletic or elusive. Could be a useful depth player for KC, but I don't see starter talent and will be avoiding him at his ADP. I think KC panicked, tried to fill a need, and reached for the wrong player. Time will tell.
WR Miles Boykin, Ravens - Another guy who doesn't play up to his measurables. On paper, he's an athletic monster with a big frame and outstanding overall explosiveness. He's a bit of a looks-like-Tarzan-plays-like-Jane though. Seems to coast in games and doesn't play with the suddenness or aggression that you expect from someone with this size/explosiveness. He should look dominant out there, but instead he just looks ordindary. He has an interesting set of athletic traits to work with and if the Ravens can tap into that unlock his full potential then maybe they'll have something special on their hands. He's not a bad athlete and moves fluidly for a big WR, but right now he's a 4.42 guy who plays like a 4.65 guy.
WR Jalen Hurd, 49ers - A poor man's Keenan Allen with a long frame and a game based on quickness and RAC rather than flat out speed. However, despite his RB background, he's not as solid through the lower body and his long frame makes him ungainly in 1v1 situations. He's a competitive player and the type who can produce if called upon. I feel like he could force his way onto the field and become a useful gadget player, but he can't play RB in the NFL and I'm lukewarm on his potential as an outside WR. I consider him draftable at his ADP, but far from a lock.
WR Terry McLaurin, Redskins - A straight-line speedster type whose game reminds of Marquise Goodwin. Suspect route running and agility. I lean towards him being a one-trick-pony in the NFL whose game is too limited to ever become a reliable FF performer, but the draft slot and workout numbers are worth a look.

I haven't really spent as much time on the TEs yet, but so far I like Fant > Hockenson. I'm normally very bullish on TEs and have been a big fan of Eifert, Ebron, and Hurst in recent years. This year I have to admit that I don't quite see what's so special about Hockenson to justify such a high pick. He doesn't appear to be a Winslow or even Ebron level talent as a receiver, but when a TE goes that high it sets off the alarm, so I'll have to take a longer look. Of the day 2-3 guys, Sample looks like a blocker first and a receiver second. Knox has good athletic traits that translate to the field. Sternberger, Warring, and Smith showed flashes.

I haven't spent a minute on the QBs and have nothing to add there right now.

Overall, I don't like this class. My top 5 would be Jacobs, AJ Brown, Sanders, Samuel, and Harry in some order. I'm relatively confident in that group, but after that, my confidence erodes quickly. Damien Harris is a high floor prospect, but the majority of my third tier RBs/WRs look like dice throws to me. Usually I will have some solid targets in the 10-20 range, but this year it's feeling more like pin the tail on the donkey.

Twice you mention Damien Harris as a high-floor guy, but how do you reconcile the situation?  He's in a notorious RBBC system with a team that just drafted Sony Michel in round one 12 months ago.  I loved his talent and he was my RB1 for a long, long time in this class but that seems like a death knell to me.

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What do you guys think of Slayton, Gary Jennings, Ridley, Snell, Warring and other later picks like them?  

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

Twice you mention Damien Harris as a high-floor guy, but how do you reconcile the situation?  He's in a notorious RBBC system with a team that just drafted Sony Michel in round one 12 months ago.  I loved his talent and he was my RB1 for a long, long time in this class but that seems like a death knell to me.

It's a bad (and curious) landing spot for Harris but if you really wanted to justify it you can. Sony's knee may never be right and it held him back to start the year. Burkhead may not make the roster now and with the Patriots shifting to a more run based offense philosophy you'd have Sony and Harris splitting the rushing load, while White stays in his pass catching role. If/when Sony misses time you get a RB2 floor out of Harris with a lot of upside based on TDs.

Obviously there's a few "ifs" sprinkled in there but it's not as terrible a landing spot if you delve a little deeper than it is at first brush. I passed on him at 2.04 in favor of JJA-W but considered him there based on the above rationale.

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49 minutes ago, RC94 said:

Slayton

I just took this guy at 3.13 based on him being the only tall and fast guy on the roster right now (if you don't include TE Engram). The Giants WR corp is littered with small quick slot type WRs like Shepard, Tate and Coleman. He wasn't very productive at Auburn but his size/speed combo is impressive. I doubt we see any consistent production from his this season but a few splash plays would not surprise me and I think he's a good end of bench stash.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's a bad (and curious) landing spot for Harris but if you really wanted to justify it you can. Sony's knee may never be right and it held him back to start the year. Burkhead may not make the roster now and with the Patriots shifting to a more run based offense philosophy you'd have Sony and Harris splitting the rushing load, while White stays in his pass catching role. If/when Sony misses time you get a RB2 floor out of Harris with a lot of upside based on TDs.

Obviously there's a few "ifs" sprinkled in there but it's not as terrible a landing spot if you delve a little deeper than it is at first brush. I passed on him at 2.04 in favor of JJA-W but considered him there based on the above rationale.

Ok I guess I may have miscontrued EBF's post a little bit, I felt like he was putting him in that tier right after top 5.  This is an entirely different reference point and would agree much more about this ADP range.  Still curious to hear high floor (or high anything) with Harris given NEP.

I feel like Fox Mulder here - I Want To Believe.  I've long been a fan of Harris but this seems like almost every risk imaginable - best case RBBC worst case potential (younger) bellcow RB ahead of him, a QB decaying (albeit gracefully) on the vine, a HC that has to have one foot out the door, a team being handed over to said HC's protege (kind of?) with an organizational history of bringing in role players to peel out touches to, and a defense that isn't really good enough to play Tressel Ball with in the first place - I don't think there's a single thing I feel good about in his situation.  If a guy I wasn't particularly high on went here like Singletary he'd be dead to me but I kinda just can't quit Harris.

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Despite being just 14 picks apart I got Montgomery flirting with being a top 5 pick and Harris as someone outside my top 20 and if they had traded draft spots I'd have Harris ranked where Montgomery is and vice versa.  When you get drafted matters for RB's IMO, but here is a case of where you got drafted being the massive driver of value. That's very Captain Obvious of me but still sometimes see people say all they care about is talent or pedigree.

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On 5/1/2019 at 12:49 PM, Dr. Octopus said:

I guess - although it seems completely irrelevant to me.

Good luck with your draft then.  But, for me, when a guy gets drafted much later than expected, there's probably a reason.  And I'm going to look for it.  But the theory that you and Seattle know more than the other 31 teams could also be true.  If that's the case, just like Seattle, you'll get great value.

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5 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

Twice you mention Damien Harris as a high-floor guy, but how do you reconcile the situation? 

I was strictly talking about his talent, not the team he is on. He looks like a pretty safe projection to become a decent NFL back. I don't think he's special, but I think he has less bust risk than all the other day two backs.

Situation is relevant, but for me it's a tiebreaker only. Good players can overcome bad situations and bad players can squander good situations. What are Bishop Sankey and Montee Ball up to these days? I mostly draft based on talent. There have been cases in the past where I've gotten it wrong and wasted roster spots for years on guys like Bernard Pierce and Christine Michael who were in a similar logjam coming out of the draft, but the nice thing is that enough people draft on situation that you typically get a big discount on guys who land in bad spots. Those two backs I mentioned had 2nd round rookie draft ADP. Same with Harris this year. You can get him much cheaper than Montgomery and Sanders, so there's no point comparing them directly. The price points are very different.

My top 5 rookies in no particular order are Jacobs, Sanders, AJ Brown, Samuel, and Harry. Harris would become a candidate in the next cluster. I don't have a clear top 10 because QB/TE value depends on format and thus it's hard to say what to do with people like Murray and Fant, but I'm guessing I'd have Harris ranked around 10th-12th. Since I can potentially get AJ Brown or Samuel in that range, Harris wouldn't necessarily be my target if I had the 10th-12th pick. However, in my early drafts he has been falling to around the 18th-20th spot. That seems like good value for him.

Short-term? Yea, it's a bit ugly with James White and Sony Michel already in the fold. Harris isn't a great receiver or an ELITE runner, so the upside even if he does become the guy is more modest than someone like Saquon or Mixon. Still, he's instantly the best power runner on the team and situations can fluctuate quickly in the NFL due to injuries, trades, and free agency. I don't usually expect instant impact from my rookie picks (unless maybe it's a RB I'm taking in the top 5) and I don't expect anything much from Harris in year one, but there comes a point in round two where I'd rather have the viable NFL back in a bad situation than inferior talents who don't look like they can play.

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33 minutes ago, wakelawyer said:

Good luck with your draft then.  But, for me, when a guy gets drafted much later than expected, there's probably a reason.  And I'm going to look for it.  But the theory that you and Seattle know more than the other 31 teams could also be true.  If that's the case, just like Seattle, you'll get great value.

But the example you used (Treadwell) was counterproductive to your argument when he was a first round pick and a guy taken in the second round of the draft (Michael Thomas) has seriously outperformed him.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But the example you used (Treadwell) was counterproductive to your argument when he was a first round pick and a guy taken in the second round of the draft (Michael Thomas) has seriously outperformed him.

And Tom Brady was a 6th round draft pick.  Not sure where that gets us.  Did Michael Thomas fall in the draft as well?  Did he rise?  I'm not really sure.  There will always be examples of later drafted players out-performing earlier drafted players.  My point dealt with the fall from projected slot to actual slot for Treadwell and Metcalf -- it had nothing to do with strict correlation between draft slot and NFL performance.  If you remember you said that Metcalf fell (or that his draft slot was irrelevant) because the Seahawks didn't draft earlier so we should ignore the fall because the fall didn't reflect a loss in value.  Although picks 29 and 47 were  still much lower than Metcalf was projected and the Seahawks had those picks but didn't pick Metcalf.  But let's ignore inconvenient facts.

The point was that both WRs fell from where they were projected.  Treadwell fell considerably from where he was projected to go.  So did Metcalf, with him going as high as 6 or 7 in many drafts.  I've become more cautious after Treadwell and will be spending time trying to see if there's a reason for the decline that should make me look in a different direction.   You find it irrelevant.  My guess is that you'll have a lot of shares of Metcalf and I'll probably have none. 

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Price check on Austin Seferian-Jenkins?

The Pats drafted ten players and none were TEs, with Harry as the lone WR. With the retirement of Gronk and Gordon flaming out, soo many targets are up for grabs in that offense. 

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3 hours ago, wakelawyer said:

And Tom Brady was a 6th round draft pick.  Not sure where that gets us.  Did Michael Thomas fall in the draft as well?  Did he rise?  I'm not really sure.  There will always be examples of later drafted players out-performing earlier drafted players.  My point dealt with the fall from projected slot to actual slot for Treadwell and Metcalf -- it had nothing to do with strict correlation between draft slot and NFL performance.  If you remember you said that Metcalf fell (or that his draft slot was irrelevant) because the Seahawks didn't draft earlier so we should ignore the fall because the fall didn't reflect a loss in value.  Although picks 29 and 47 were  still much lower than Metcalf was projected and the Seahawks had those picks but didn't pick Metcalf.  But let's ignore inconvenient facts.

The point was that both WRs fell from where they were projected.  Treadwell fell considerably from where he was projected to go.  So did Metcalf, with him going as high as 6 or 7 in many drafts.  I've become more cautious after Treadwell and will be spending time trying to see if there's a reason for the decline that should make me look in a different direction.   You find it irrelevant.  My guess is that you'll have a lot of shares of Metcalf and I'll probably have none. 

I never said his draft slot was irrelevant- go back and re-read what I said and my follow up to Coop’s question.

My only point as to Seattle had to do with him being the 9th WR taken. We don’t know if Seattle had him rated higher than Isabella or Samuel or one of the other WRs taken before him. It’s possible they did not, but it’s also possible they did.

I brought up Thomas because he was drafted after Treadwell, yet he outperformed him. It can and does happen. 

As to the concept of guys falling from where they were projected - what does that really mean? Who’s doing the projections, ransoms mocks?  We’ll see what happens. 

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So another see-saw with Tyreek. Irrespective of whether you think he’s a PoS, what’s his value?

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On 5/1/2019 at 11:18 AM, JoeJoe88 said:

Yep.  Remember in 2016 when Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Treadwell were all first rounders?  A guy named Michael Thomas went in the second...

I remember seeing guys draft Jordan Mathews before Beckham. You know, teams are sometimes wrong so I guess they always are. That’s a really, really poor argument in favour of Metcalf. They are right more than they are wrong no matter how you slice it.

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24 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

So another see-saw with Tyreek. Irrespective of whether you think he’s a PoS, what’s his value?

Probably a 3rd for me, but others probably want Diggs still. I doubt they are actually offering much though.

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2 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

So another see-saw with Tyreek. Irrespective of whether you think he’s a PoS, what’s his value?

Would be my WR2 if he was exposed to the rookie draft.

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Where are we at with Julio and AJG? Seems Julio’s value much higher now.

What type of pick on top of someone like Golladay or Corey Davis would be needed to get a deal done for Julio?

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31 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Where are we at with Julio and AJG? Seems Julio’s value much higher now.

What type of pick on top of someone like Golladay or Corey Davis would be needed to get a deal done for Julio?

I think they’re worth more to competitive owners than they’re likely to command on the market. Rebuilding teams have no interest and teams in the middle will be hesitant. I think Julio should command  a mid-1st on top of guys like Golladay and Davis, but whether you can get that is another matter. I’m not sure Green will land you one of them straight up.

If you’re rebuilding, I think you start with a 2020 1st and get whatever you can on top of that. If you’re looking to get a young, high end WR2, I think that ship has sailed, especially for Green.

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On 5/2/2019 at 12:18 PM, zeeshan2 said:

Christian Kirk value now?

I'm not sure its changed at all from the draft. I think he's still the long term slot guy, he got more competition for targets(but that was always assumed to happen) and a (potentially huge) QB upgrade. 

Rookie pick wise, I'd value him at 1.6. He looked pretty good already in the NFL on an awful offense, so that gives him a leg up on Isabella and Butler for me. I would bet on Kirk being the Cards #1 this season, or at least 1B if Fitz can stave off father time.

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34 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'm not sure its changed at all from the draft.

Only Kirk owners would say this.

New coaching staff drafted 'their guys' to come in, and multiple of them.

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Finally moved Gurley:

Gave Gurley, got Kelce and 2020 1st

Wasn't thrilled with the return but I'm a contender here and it's TE premium

Where is Damien Williams value now that he's firmly "the role" he had last year?

edit: I conflated a couple of different trades/discussions and had this listed incorrectly initially.

Edited by Hankmoody

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42 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Only Kirk owners would say this.

New coaching staff drafted 'their guys' to come in, and multiple of them.

They want to run 4 WR sets and need the bodies to do that. I guess they could have watched Kirk’s 18’ tape and decided they needed to replace him, but that doesn’t seem very likely to me.

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49 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Finally moved Gurley:

Gave Gurley, got Kelce and Diggs

Wasn't thrilled with the return but I'm a contender here and this puts two starters into my lineup. 

Where is Damien Williams value now that he's firmly "the role" he had last year?

Well I've seen him go right around Josh Jacobs everytime in redrafts. Same in a couple startups I did recently. I'd certainly take Jacobs for the longer term but I'd probably rather have Williams than most of the top rookie WRs. So right around 1.03/1.04 maybe. I think it's much more likely that at least a couple of these WRs hit, but it's kind of hard to know which ones. So there is a bird in the hand argument in favor of Williams. But the likelihood of him keeping the job beyond this season are pretty small and is a big drag to his value. 1.04 probably buys him but not sure anyone is going to offer that. For the 1.05 or 1.06 I probably hold him. Maybe OTC for Metcalf or Sanders.

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43 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

They want to run 4 WR sets and need the bodies to do that. I guess they could have watched Kirk’s 18’ tape and decided they needed to replace him, but that doesn’t seem very likely to me.

I didn't say he was being replaced, I said his value has changed.  Downward.  Significantly.

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1 hour ago, tangfoot said:

Only Kirk owners would say this.

New coaching staff drafted 'their guys' to come in, and multiple of them.

I'm not a Kirk owner in any league, though I am very interested if owners are selling.

They had 2 WR's with any talent on the roster, 1 of whom is a retirement threat every off season. It'd been irresponsible not to draft a WR highly. They took 2 because Butler fell to day 3, and having him learn from Fitz could be huge for his concentration/inconsistency issues. 

Fully expect Kirk/Fitz/Isabella to be the top-3 this year, with Butler replacing Fitz whenever he hangs it up. 

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1 minute ago, travdogg said:

I'm not a Kirk owner in any league, though I am very interested if owners are selling.

Odds are that he'll get cheaper before he gets more expensive.

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29 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Well I've seen him go right around Josh Jacobs everytime in redrafts. Same in a couple startups I did recently. I'd certainly take Jacobs for the longer term but I'd probably rather have Williams than most of the top rookie WRs. So right around 1.03/1.04 maybe. I think it's much more likely that at least a couple of these WRs hit, but it's kind of hard to know which ones. So there is a bird in the hand argument in favor of Williams. But the likelihood of him keeping the job beyond this season are pretty small and is a big drag to his value. 1.04 probably buys him but not sure anyone is going to offer that. For the 1.05 or 1.06 I probably hold him. Maybe OTC for Metcalf or Sanders.

I'm in the same boat. Harder to find a player with a wider range of outcomes right now; could be a legit, back end RB1 based upon a small sample in KC, but too me that is overly bullish. He could also be on the bench by week 3. He's the starter and doesn't seem to have either a high pick or coveted FA signing to compete with, but, as what has previously been posted, he's no better than a coin toss to the "the guy" for the long term.

I have him for cheap in my auction league and will keep him but recognize he could be a JAG at any moment.

Edited by Ack88
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10 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I didn't say he was being replaced, I said his value has changed.  Downward.  Significantly.

I guess if you thought his value came from a lack of other options. 

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

I guess if you thought his value came from a lack of other options. 

Maybe I'm the only one looking at it from this lens:  There are now 3 WR2s on this roster.  It's a complete guess which one of them will be the most fantasy relevant going forward.  I don't think the talent difference between the three is significant, and I have no idea how the pecking order is going to shake out after Fitzgerald.

It's a ####### quagmire to me.

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3 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

Where are we at with Julio and AJG? Seems Julio’s value much higher now.

What type of pick on top of someone like Golladay or Corey Davis would be needed to get a deal done for Julio?

I dont think id give up golladay for julio....depends on team makeup though and contention/rebuild.....

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44 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Well I've seen him go right around Josh Jacobs everytime in redrafts. Same in a couple startups I did recently. I'd certainly take Jacobs for the longer term but I'd probably rather have Williams than most of the top rookie WRs. So right around 1.03/1.04 maybe. I think it's much more likely that at least a couple of these WRs hit, but it's kind of hard to know which ones. So there is a bird in the hand argument in favor of Williams. But the likelihood of him keeping the job beyond this season are pretty small and is a big drag to his value. 1.04 probably buys him but not sure anyone is going to offer that. For the 1.05 or 1.06 I probably hold him. Maybe OTC for Metcalf or Sanders.

Who's doing redrafts now?  That's going to skew things a lot for a dynasty value thread.  Are you saying he should pull 1.03 type value?  I'd trade him for that in a flash.  I offered him up pre-NFL draft for 2.03 and was RNC but I understood that one with the risk.

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12 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Maybe I'm the only one looking at it from this lens:  There are now 3 WR2s on this roster.  It's a complete guess which one of them will be the most fantasy relevant going forward.  I don't think the talent difference between the three is significant, and I have no idea how the pecking order is going to shake out after Fitzgerald.

It's a ####### quagmire to me.

That’s fair, and you’re not the only one. But if you own Kirk, presumably you like him. If you like him, it doesn’t feel like a bad bet to assume he ends up being one of the top 2 guys in that offense. He was going to have to beat out quality competition eventually, and Isabella and Butler are only that, at this point.

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5 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Who's doing redrafts now?  That's going to skew things a lot for a dynasty value thread.  Are you saying he should pull 1.03 type value?  I'd trade him for that in a flash.  I offered him up pre-NFL draft for 2.03 and was RNC but I understood that one with the risk.

Just a handful of MFL10 bestball redrafts. Didn't mean to imply that redraft value should or would equate to dynasty value. It was just an observation about where he is going. I wouldn't take 1.06 for him right now. His role is the starting RB for the best offense in football (yes minus Hill they are probably only top 5 or top 10). And he catches passes. 

Edited by barackdhouse

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Ah MFL10 gotcha.

Part of my thing is I am loaded in this league - he's my RB5 or 6 - so his flash value means less to me than it would for another team and I'd rather stash his value into a younger asset.  If I took 1.03 I would immediately flip it to a later pick and a 2020 1st/picks.  Hell I would possibly take a 2020 1st only for him if I had confidence in where it was going to be.

Would love to hear from others as well.

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Probably easy to get a 2nd for Hill. I would trade a late 2nd. I would spend my whole budget if someone dropped him.

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25 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Ah MFL10 gotcha.

Part of my thing is I am loaded in this league - he's my RB5 or 6 - so his flash value means less to me than it would for another team and I'd rather stash his value into a younger asset.  If I took 1.03 I would immediately flip it to a later pick and a 2020 1st/picks.  Hell I would possibly take a 2020 1st only for him if I had confidence in where it was going to be.

Would love to hear from others as well.

Yeah he means more to me on a couple rosters than he does on others. I've tried to buy him for 1.08 and was declined.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

That’s fair, and you’re not the only one. But if you own Kirk, presumably you like him. If you like him, it doesn’t feel like a bad bet to assume he ends up being one of the top 2 guys in that offense. He was going to have to beat out quality competition eventually, and Isabella and Butler are only that, at this point.

Agree 100%.

These are the WR's on Cardinals' roster last year:

Larry Fitzgerald

Christian Kirk

JJ Nelson (no longer on the roster)

Chad Williams

Trent Sherfield

Jalen Tolliver

If they didn't spend a few picks on WR's this year, it would have been a huge mistake. They HAD to.

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Here’s a trade offer I received that will give an idea of how some are valuing 2020 1sts at the moment.  I recently was offered the the 1.09, 2.03, 2.05 and 2.10 for a 2020 1st that I own in a 12 team superflex. The team the 2020 1st is from is in pretty bad shape, losing K. Hunt, T. Hill and Gronk after that pick was traded to me and it likely projects top 5.   I rejected the offer without much of a second thought.  I haven’t seen anyone successfully move out of the 1st for a 2020 1st in any of my leagues.  

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17 minutes ago, Raback said:

Here’s a trade offer I received that will give an idea of how some are valuing 2020 1sts at the moment.  I recently was offered the the 1.09, 2.03, 2.05 and 2.10 for a 2020 1st that I own in a 12 team superflex. The team the 2020 1st is from is in pretty bad shape, losing K. Hunt, T. Hill and Gronk after that pick was traded to me and it likely projects top 5.   I rejected the offer without much of a second thought.  I haven’t seen anyone successfully move out of the 1st for a 2020 1st in any of my leagues.  

I saw it three times in my draft going on now.

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1 hour ago, Raback said:

Here’s a trade offer I received that will give an idea of how some are valuing 2020 1sts at the moment.  I recently was offered the the 1.09, 2.03, 2.05 and 2.10 for a 2020 1st that I own in a 12 team superflex. The team the 2020 1st is from is in pretty bad shape, losing K. Hunt, T. Hill and Gronk after that pick was traded to me and it likely projects top 5.   I rejected the offer without much of a second thought.  I haven’t seen anyone successfully move out of the 1st for a 2020 1st in any of my leagues.  

That’s a great offer. This draft is so deep. I would see if he would still do that. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I saw it three times in my draft going on now.

Twice already this week in my league and we don’t draft yet. 

1.6 and 1.8 were moved for future 1s

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1 hour ago, Ratbone said:

That’s a great offer. This draft is so deep. I would see if he would still do that. 

It’s a more than a fair offer but I have a pretty deep roster as it is and I’d rather take the chance of landing a stud like Swift, Jeudy, Taylor, etc. next year.  

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On 5/3/2019 at 2:44 PM, travdogg said:

I'm not a Kirk owner in any league, though I am very interested if owners are selling.

They had 2 WR's with any talent on the roster, 1 of whom is a retirement threat every off season. It'd been irresponsible not to draft a WR highly. They took 2 because Butler fell to day 3, and having him learn from Fitz could be huge for his concentration/inconsistency issues. 

Fully expect Kirk/Fitz/Isabella to be the top-3 this year, with Butler replacing Fitz whenever he hangs it up. 

They added 3 WR's in the draft, I actually like KeeSean Johnson as well, and that's not a good sign for players still on the roster. New HC comes in and they spend 3 draft picks on WR's....they have plenty of holes on that team and that's what they decided. Any former AZ WR's value went down.

 

This same theory applies to the 49ers...sorry Pettis owners.

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17 minutes ago, tdmills said:

They added 3 WR's in the draft, I actually like KeeSean Johnson as well, and that's not a good sign for players still on the roster. New HC comes in and they spend 3 draft picks on WR's....they have plenty of holes on that team and that's what they decided. Any former AZ WR's value went down.

 

This same theory applies to the 49ers...sorry Pettis owners.

Except the 49ers didn’t change coaches.

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