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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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12 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Maybe I'm the only one looking at it from this lens:  There are now 3 WR2s on this roster.  It's a complete guess which one of them will be the most fantasy relevant going forward.  I don't think the talent difference between the three is significant, and I have no idea how the pecking order is going to shake out after Fitzgerald.

It's a ####### quagmire to me.

That’s fair, and you’re not the only one. But if you own Kirk, presumably you like him. If you like him, it doesn’t feel like a bad bet to assume he ends up being one of the top 2 guys in that offense. He was going to have to beat out quality competition eventually, and Isabella and Butler are only that, at this point.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Who's doing redrafts now?  That's going to skew things a lot for a dynasty value thread.  Are you saying he should pull 1.03 type value?  I'd trade him for that in a flash.  I offered him up pre-NFL draft for 2.03 and was RNC but I understood that one with the risk.

Just a handful of MFL10 bestball redrafts. Didn't mean to imply that redraft value should or would equate to dynasty value. It was just an observation about where he is going. I wouldn't take 1.06 for him right now. His role is the starting RB for the best offense in football (yes minus Hill they are probably only top 5 or top 10). And he catches passes. 

Edited by barackdhouse

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Ah MFL10 gotcha.

Part of my thing is I am loaded in this league - he's my RB5 or 6 - so his flash value means less to me than it would for another team and I'd rather stash his value into a younger asset.  If I took 1.03 I would immediately flip it to a later pick and a 2020 1st/picks.  Hell I would possibly take a 2020 1st only for him if I had confidence in where it was going to be.

Would love to hear from others as well.

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Probably easy to get a 2nd for Hill. I would trade a late 2nd. I would spend my whole budget if someone dropped him.

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25 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Ah MFL10 gotcha.

Part of my thing is I am loaded in this league - he's my RB5 or 6 - so his flash value means less to me than it would for another team and I'd rather stash his value into a younger asset.  If I took 1.03 I would immediately flip it to a later pick and a 2020 1st/picks.  Hell I would possibly take a 2020 1st only for him if I had confidence in where it was going to be.

Would love to hear from others as well.

Yeah he means more to me on a couple rosters than he does on others. I've tried to buy him for 1.08 and was declined.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

That’s fair, and you’re not the only one. But if you own Kirk, presumably you like him. If you like him, it doesn’t feel like a bad bet to assume he ends up being one of the top 2 guys in that offense. He was going to have to beat out quality competition eventually, and Isabella and Butler are only that, at this point.

Agree 100%.

These are the WR's on Cardinals' roster last year:

Larry Fitzgerald

Christian Kirk

JJ Nelson (no longer on the roster)

Chad Williams

Trent Sherfield

Jalen Tolliver

If they didn't spend a few picks on WR's this year, it would have been a huge mistake. They HAD to.

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Here’s a trade offer I received that will give an idea of how some are valuing 2020 1sts at the moment.  I recently was offered the the 1.09, 2.03, 2.05 and 2.10 for a 2020 1st that I own in a 12 team superflex. The team the 2020 1st is from is in pretty bad shape, losing K. Hunt, T. Hill and Gronk after that pick was traded to me and it likely projects top 5.   I rejected the offer without much of a second thought.  I haven’t seen anyone successfully move out of the 1st for a 2020 1st in any of my leagues.  

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17 minutes ago, Raback said:

Here’s a trade offer I received that will give an idea of how some are valuing 2020 1sts at the moment.  I recently was offered the the 1.09, 2.03, 2.05 and 2.10 for a 2020 1st that I own in a 12 team superflex. The team the 2020 1st is from is in pretty bad shape, losing K. Hunt, T. Hill and Gronk after that pick was traded to me and it likely projects top 5.   I rejected the offer without much of a second thought.  I haven’t seen anyone successfully move out of the 1st for a 2020 1st in any of my leagues.  

I saw it three times in my draft going on now.

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1 hour ago, Raback said:

Here’s a trade offer I received that will give an idea of how some are valuing 2020 1sts at the moment.  I recently was offered the the 1.09, 2.03, 2.05 and 2.10 for a 2020 1st that I own in a 12 team superflex. The team the 2020 1st is from is in pretty bad shape, losing K. Hunt, T. Hill and Gronk after that pick was traded to me and it likely projects top 5.   I rejected the offer without much of a second thought.  I haven’t seen anyone successfully move out of the 1st for a 2020 1st in any of my leagues.  

That’s a great offer. This draft is so deep. I would see if he would still do that. 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I saw it three times in my draft going on now.

Twice already this week in my league and we don’t draft yet. 

1.6 and 1.8 were moved for future 1s

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1 hour ago, Ratbone said:

That’s a great offer. This draft is so deep. I would see if he would still do that. 

It’s a more than a fair offer but I have a pretty deep roster as it is and I’d rather take the chance of landing a stud like Swift, Jeudy, Taylor, etc. next year.  

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On 5/3/2019 at 2:44 PM, travdogg said:

I'm not a Kirk owner in any league, though I am very interested if owners are selling.

They had 2 WR's with any talent on the roster, 1 of whom is a retirement threat every off season. It'd been irresponsible not to draft a WR highly. They took 2 because Butler fell to day 3, and having him learn from Fitz could be huge for his concentration/inconsistency issues. 

Fully expect Kirk/Fitz/Isabella to be the top-3 this year, with Butler replacing Fitz whenever he hangs it up. 

They added 3 WR's in the draft, I actually like KeeSean Johnson as well, and that's not a good sign for players still on the roster. New HC comes in and they spend 3 draft picks on WR's....they have plenty of holes on that team and that's what they decided. Any former AZ WR's value went down.

 

This same theory applies to the 49ers...sorry Pettis owners.

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17 minutes ago, tdmills said:

They added 3 WR's in the draft, I actually like KeeSean Johnson as well, and that's not a good sign for players still on the roster. New HC comes in and they spend 3 draft picks on WR's....they have plenty of holes on that team and that's what they decided. Any former AZ WR's value went down.

 

This same theory applies to the 49ers...sorry Pettis owners.

Except the 49ers didn’t change coaches.

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5 hours ago, Raback said:

Here’s a trade offer I received that will give an idea of how some are valuing 2020 1sts at the moment.  I recently was offered the the 1.09, 2.03, 2.05 and 2.10 for a 2020 1st that I own in a 12 team superflex. The team the 2020 1st is from is in pretty bad shape, losing K. Hunt, T. Hill and Gronk after that pick was traded to me and it likely projects top 5.   I rejected the offer without much of a second thought.  I haven’t seen anyone successfully move out of the 1st for a 2020 1st in any of my leagues.  

I've made two such trades, moving down from a 1st to a later pick (1st or 3rd) and getting 2020 1st and have strong chances to pull off at least two more (4 leagues total).

But wow, that offer would be hella tempting.  I'm in IDP leagues so those 2nd's carry a bit more value and I think if it were the right league where I had taxi room I must just do that.  4 chances to hit on a guy that I might flip for a haul which could include that 2020 back is awful juicy.  Just going by ADP that's Deebo, Butler, Singletary, and Justice Hill.  Toss in the IDP factor and then letting me make my own choices (JJAW, Butler, Henderson, Damien Harris) and I'm pretty sure I'd roll them bones.

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On 5/3/2019 at 4:12 PM, Hankmoody said:

Who's doing redrafts now?  That's going to skew things a lot for a dynasty value thread.  Are you saying he should pull 1.03 type value?  I'd trade him for that in a flash.  I offered him up pre-NFL draft for 2.03 and was RNC but I understood that one with the risk.

RTS and FFPC both doing redrafts every day to win $250,000 prize.

I seen Damien Williams go at the 1.02 and 1.05 today in rookie/FA drafts where he was available.

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1 hour ago, Dez said:

RTS and FFPC both doing redrafts every day to win $250,000 prize.

I seen Damien Williams go at the 1.02 and 1.05 today in rookie/FA drafts where he was available.

I can maybe understand 1.5, if its a team that is a contender, and just a RB away. Its still risky, but could pan out.

1.2 just feels irresponsible. Even if a team is a contender that is just a RB away, the situation Montgomery landed in makes is possible he's better this year, let alone long term.

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1 hour ago, travdogg said:

I can maybe understand 1.5, if its a team that is a contender, and just a RB away. Its still risky, but could pan out.

1.2 just feels irresponsible. Even if a team is a contender that is just a RB away, the situation Montgomery landed in makes is possible he's better this year, let alone long term.

Anything is possible, but I would think right now the odds HEAVILY favor Williams outscoring Montgomery this year, likely by a very large amount. 

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On ‎5‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 7:57 AM, RC94 said:

What do you guys think of Slayton, Gary Jennings, Ridley, Snell, Warring and other later picks like them?  

That's getting to the part of rookie drafts where most guys don't pan out, if there's a guy you like grab em.

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15 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Except the 49ers didn’t change coaches.

You're really good at seeing the point.

 

When the 49ers coaches had one year with Pettis, then decide to take two WR's on day 2....it hurts his value. No other way to slice that.

 

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7 minutes ago, tdmills said:

You're really good at seeing the point.

 

When the 49ers coaches had one year with Pettis, then decide to take two WR's on day 2....it hurts his value. No other way to slice that.

 

Bull. They have nothing behind him. Gonna go into the season with one decent WR?

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16 hours ago, tdmills said:

They added 3 WR's in the draft, I actually like KeeSean Johnson as well, and that's not a good sign for players still on the roster. New HC comes in and they spend 3 draft picks on WR's....they have plenty of holes on that team and that's what they decided. Any former AZ WR's value went down.

 

This same theory applies to the 49ers...sorry Pettis owners.

They are planning on running frequent 4 WR sets and they basically had 1.5 WRs on the roster.  They had to invest heavily at WR.  Kirk is still the guy who put up a 1000 yard season as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC, was drafted higher, and the only one who has produced on an NFL level.  I like Isabella quite a bit but Kirk is still the top guy here to me by a long shot, and I’ll be buying in every league I can.  

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27 minutes ago, Raback said:

They are planning on running frequent 4 WR sets and they basically had 1.5 WRs on the roster.  They had to invest heavily at WR.  Kirk is still the guy who put up a 1000 yard season as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC, was drafted higher, and the only one who has produced on an NFL level.  I like Isabella quite a bit but Kirk is still the top guy here to me by a long shot, and I’ll be buying in every league I can.  

What's the impact of last season's injury on Kirk?

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Well I have had rejects when I offered Damien Williams for the 1.04 straight up and for the 1.05 straight up so I'm definitely not seeing the same results you guys are.  1.05 wasn't his original pick, he was in the championship last year, so it's not even a case of preferring youth and unknown upside over the potential flameout that Wiliams might be.  I guess I will shift gears and look to move one of the other RB's ahead of him on my roster for a bigger haul but those kinds of trades are pretty rare in this league.

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5 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Well I have had rejects when I offered Damien Williams for the 1.04 straight up and for the 1.05 straight up

I'm in two leagues where he was in the rookie drafts and he went 5 and 9 if that helps and always after Jacobs, Montgomery and Sanders had been picked.  Each league is different but to me seems his market starts after those 3 RB's get emptied out.

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4 hours ago, fruity pebbles said:

Bull. They have nothing behind him. Gonna go into the season with one decent WR?

Teams don't spend premium draft picks on players at the same position as decoys. This is a full blown WR by committee, which hurts the "Pettis is going to dominate targets" talk all offseason. If we went strictly off of draft capital, Samuel's was higher too.

#1 Target = Kittle

#2/3 targets = WRs

#4 target = RBs

#5 target = whichever WR isn't in 2/3.

 

This hurts his value

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5 hours ago, Raback said:

They are planning on running frequent 4 WR sets and they basically had 1.5 WRs on the roster.  They had to invest heavily at WR.  Kirk is still the guy who put up a 1000 yard season as an 18 year old true freshman in the SEC, was drafted higher, and the only one who has produced on an NFL level.  I like Isabella quite a bit but Kirk is still the top guy here to me by a long shot, and I’ll be buying in every league I can.  

Why are you quoting stats from 4 years ago as an indicator of 2019 success and beyond? Kirk then regressed and didn't reach that milestone any of the next 3 seasons. 

I could quote how Isabella had more yards receiving against an SEC team(limited games against them) than Kirk did in his college career. But all of this is nitpicking.

 

The focus should be a new coach brought in 3 WR's and 1 TE in the draft, signed one TE in Free Agency. Butler is bigger and a better RZ threat. Isabella is quicker and faster. 

 

Sure they needed more WR's...but you don't just continually spend draft picks at positions if you're happy with a stud already on your roster. If they loved Kirk, I could see maybe Butler and KeeSean...not Isabella too, who's literally the same as Kirk.

 

I know this is pulling at the heartstrings of Kirk/Pettis truthers/owners....but none of this is good news for their FF success or targets.

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It’s pretty crazy how people are all over this draft. 

Was just offered 

JuJu, Ito Smith, 20 overall, 2020 2nd

AB, Allen Robinson, Njoku, Chris Carson, 28 overall 

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I offered Thielen to another owner the other day. He told me he’s worried about Irv Smith Jr. stealing targets.

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57 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I offered Thielen to another owner the other day. He told me he’s worried about Irv Smith Jr. stealing targets.

You should tell him you may quit fantasy football because you are worried about squirrels taking over the world.

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4 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

It’s pretty crazy how people are all over this draft. 

Was just offered 

JuJu, Ito Smith, 20 overall, 2020 2nd

AB, Allen Robinson, Njoku, Chris Carson, 28 overall 

I’d take Juju by himself over the other side

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10 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

I’d take Juju by himself over the other side

The Njoku piece was making me hesitant. I suppose I could take Irv Smith Jr at 20. 

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24 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

I’d take Juju by himself over the other side

I don't know. I'm worried how JuJu is going to handle being the primary focus of defenses. I don't think that's such a great deal.

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2 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't know. I'm worried how JuJu is going to handle being the primary focus of defenses. I don't think that's such a great deal.

The only part I really like is Juju is 8 years younger than AB who will be 31 already in July and likely 2-4 more good seasons. 

It’s a valid point without Bell and AB however targets should be there. 

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7 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

The only part I really like is Juju is 8 years younger than AB who will be 31 already in July and likely 2-4 more good seasons. 

It’s a valid point without Bell and AB however targets should be there. 

I agree with the age difference, and I own and love JuJu, but I'm just saying you can do a lot with the other side. Brown has 3 yrs left, Robinson maybe someone would trade you a 1st for? He's the bum of the trade, but there are still believers. Njoku is 20x better than Irv friggin Smith, and you have to wast a pick on him hoping one day he produces. Not a slam dunk trade.

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31 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I agree with the age difference, and I own and love JuJu, but I'm just saying you can do a lot with the other side. Brown has 3 yrs left, Robinson maybe someone would trade you a 1st for? He's the bum of the trade, but there are still believers. Njoku is 20x better than Irv friggin Smith, and you have to wast a pick on him hoping one day he produces. Not a slam dunk trade.

True, I feel like the other pieces would help any other team in the league.  I didn’t start Carson and Arob once last year.  It’s a lot to pay for Juju.  It’s hard to turn Julio, AB, AJG, Hilton into some youth.  My options are JuJu, Hopkins, and Adams who aren’t really being shopped. 

The dynasty top end WR market is tough to acquire. 

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9 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't know. I'm worried how JuJu is going to handle being the primary focus of defenses. I don't think that's such a great deal.

It’s possible he regresses (though my recollection is the few time AB has missed time Juju looked good) but I think it’s even more likely AB regresses significantly further in Oak.

All those other pieces are nice names with some potential but little production (Carson the exception) to back it up.

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2 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

It’s possible he regresses (though my recollection is the few time AB has missed time Juju looked good) but I think it’s even more likely AB regresses significantly further in Oak.

All those other pieces are nice names with some potential but little production (Carson the exception) to back it up.

Njoku is a top 8 TE.  I agree with Arob and Carson. I have Penny who I’m hoping just supplants Carson. They spent high draft capital on him.  JuJu is the piece I want to acquire as young top 8 dynasty WRs are hard to get  

Id have 2,3,20,25,26 if proceeded.  

 

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5 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Njoku is a top 8 TE.  I agree with Arob and Carson. I have Penny who I’m hoping just supplants Carson. They spent high draft capital on him.  JuJu is the piece I want to acquire as young top 8 dynasty WRs are hard to get  

Id have 2,3,20,25,26 if proceeded.  

 

From a dynasty asset perspective yes, from a production perspective (to date) no.

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Price check on Mike Williams WR LAC... anyone seeing him in trades? 

Most trade calculators / value charts / etc. seem to have him worth less than I'd trade him for but nobody is biting in leagues where I try to acquire him.

 

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22 hours ago, tdmills said:

Why are you quoting stats from 4 years ago as an indicator of 2019 success and beyond? Kirk then regressed and didn't reach that milestone any of the next 3 seasons. 

I could quote how Isabella had more yards receiving against an SEC team(limited games against them) than Kirk did in his college career. But all of this is nitpicking.

 

The focus should be a new coach brought in 3 WR's and 1 TE in the draft, signed one TE in Free Agency. Butler is bigger and a better RZ threat. Isabella is quicker and faster. 

 

Sure they needed more WR's...but you don't just continually spend draft picks at positions if you're happy with a stud already on your roster. If they loved Kirk, I could see maybe Butler and KeeSean...not Isabella too, who's literally the same as Kirk.

 

I know this is pulling at the heartstrings of Kirk/Pettis truthers/owners....but none of this is good news for their FF success or targets.

I’m quoting those stats because breakout age is probably the most predictive metric when it comes to future success. Also his yardage went down very slightly while his TDs went up.  His market share remained high the entire time.  

Butler and Johnson were 4th and 6th round picks who are not very good players.  I think the predraft hype on Butler has got people a bit carried away.  Kirk is still the #1 in this offense and nothing the Cardinals did makes me believe otherwise.  

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22 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

It’s pretty crazy how people are all over this draft. 

Was just offered 

JuJu, Ito Smith, 20 overall, 2020 2nd

AB, Allen Robinson, Njoku, Chris Carson, 28 overall 

That may look like an overpay for Juju to some, but that guy who dealt him is going to look back in 2 years and wish he had Juju when all those other pieces (save probably Njoku) are pretty much worthless.   

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Raback said:

That may look like an overpay for Juju to some, but that guy who dealt him is going to look back in 2 years and wish he had Juju when all those other pieces (save probably Njoku) are pretty much worthless.   

My thoughts as well. AB is 8 years older than Juju. Crazy to me. 

Edited by Gottabesweet

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On 5/5/2019 at 2:59 PM, tdmills said:

Teams don't spend premium draft picks on players at the same position as decoys. This is a full blown WR by committee, which hurts the "Pettis is going to dominate targets" talk all offseason. If we went strictly off of draft capital, Samuel's was higher too.

#1 Target = Kittle

#2/3 targets = WRs

#4 target = RBs

#5 target = whichever WR isn't in 2/3.

This hurts his value

Doesn't hurt it much, if any. But then again, I didn't know anyone who said Pettis would dominate targets. I thought he'd be the WR1 if they didn't bring in OBJ or AB and I still think that. You're correct that Deebo went 2.04 but they traded up to 2.12 to get Pettis... I don't remember what it cost to move up, but it very well may have been the same worth as 2.04. Either way, we're talking about 8 picks which is negligible. Pettis and Deebo are the same age and Pettis has already shown NFL ability and has a year in the system. The likelihood of Deebo supplanting him is small, IMO.

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On 5/5/2019 at 12:57 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

Anything is possible, but I would think right now the odds HEAVILY favor Williams outscoring Montgomery this year, likely by a very large amount. 

Montgomery is replacing Howard who had 250 carries and 27 targets. Montgomery is better in the passing game than Howard. Cohen obviously will eat into his targets, but Cohen was a holdover from the pre-Nagy era. Nagy might prefer to keep Montgomery on the field more than he did Howard. Also, Hyde is not a great RB, but he's a lot better than he's given credit for. He will eat into Williams' workload. I feel like they are 50/50 for 2019 and I'd obviously take Montgomery easily for 2020 on.

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On 5/5/2019 at 2:59 PM, tdmills said:

 This is a full blown WR by committee, which hurts the "Pettis is going to dominate targets" talk all offseason.

I'll be extremely surprised if Deebo has not clearly asserted himself as the far and away most targeted WR in this offense next season, provided he is healthy of course. Don't think it will look like a WR by committee at all, but do agree that between Kittle, Deebo and the RB's Pettis owners won't like his usage. 

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Another deep dynasty question - What do you think of Kendrick Bourne?  I liked his potential and he seemed to be catching on a bit as a potential replacement for Garcon, but after drafting Samuel and Hurd it seems like the team is moving on. 

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I look at every team's 53 man roster at the start of the year and see if anyone on the bottom of the depth chart at WR or RB could be an interesting flyer. It's not easy to survive training camp and make a pro roster, so even those 4th-5th WRs must have something to offer. Bourne was one of the guys who caught my eye before last season and I stashed him everywhere. I see shades of Stevie Johnson. A possession WR with decent size and sneaky athleticism who can make some plays. That doesn't guarantee much though. Quinton Patton was a similar type of player for SF and never did anything.

Deebo is a catch-and-run guy in the mold of Boldin. That's bad for Bourne because it overlaps some of what he does. Likewise, Hurd profiles as more of a catch-and-run possession guy than a blazing downfield threat. Again, that's bad for Bourne because it overlaps some of what he does. If the Niners had gone out and drafted a Hardman or Campbell then it wouldn't necessarily be as bad since those guys are a completely different style compared with Bourne, but the specific picks they make pose a big threat to Bourne since they'll seemingly infringe on his potential role.

All in all, it's an arrow down for Bourne, but in a deep league I would still hold onto him. We are always quick to assume that just because a team drafts a guy high, he's automatically going to be better than the incumbent. The Bears spent a top 5 pick on Cedric Benson when they already had Thomas Jones. Big arrow down, right? Actually Benson was never able to beat him out. Teams miss on evaluations of draft picks and they do occasionally underestimate guys on their own roster. Just because the Niners took Deebo and Hurd doesn't mean those guys will be able to keep Bourne off the field.

Personally, I think Deebo is going to be good and may even lead the team in targets as a rookie. I have no real expectations for Bourne, but if you don't have an urgent need for roster space then I would try to hold him since he has made the team for two years in a row and improved statistically each season. If you chuck him now, there's a slim chance that you just got rid of the next TJ Houshmandzadeh/Stevie Johnson just because the Niners spent some day two picks on WRs.

 

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