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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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I have Darnold and Murray close too, but the tie-breaker for me is Murray's rushing potential. 

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So here some value discussion on Darnold and Kyler.  I had 1.2 in a 2qb rookie/FA draft. Jacobs went first so Kyler was obvious pick. After some back and forth the best offer I got was Darnold, Gesicki, and Lesean McCoy.  Would up turning it down. 

 

For comparison, was also offered:

1.3 and Marvin Jones

1.5 and 1.10

Kirk Cousins

Golladay and 1.5 

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6 minutes ago, DAG said:

I have Darnold and Murray close too, but the tie-breaker for me is Murray's rushing potential. 

Yeah I think that's what separates them in a 4 pt. passing TD league. 

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What are folks with rebuilding or non-contending teams doing with David Johnson? I just traded him away in a TE premium for OJ Howard (as part of a larger deal) on a team that I need to rebuild. I actually expect him to do well this season, mainly because I expect him to be involved in the passing game again. But he'll be 28 before the regular season ends and it feels like this year is a good chance to get some exit value.

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12 minutes ago, DAG said:

What are folks with rebuilding or non-contending teams doing with David Johnson? I just traded him away in a TE premium for OJ Howard (as part of a larger deal) on a team that I need to rebuild. I actually expect him to do well this season, mainly because I expect him to be involved in the passing game again. But he'll be 28 before the regular season ends and it feels like this year is a good chance to get some exit value.

I moved him earlier in the year for the 1.07 this year and a 2020 late first (pretty stacked team).

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Personally I have Kyler >>> over Darnold.  They are going to sling it a lot.  He's super accurate, has intriguing weapons and running game support, and big rushing potential.  Darnold seems super meh to me.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, skinfanjon said:

Personally I have Kyler >>> over Darnold.  They are going to sling it a lot.  He's super accurate, has intriguing weapons and running game support, and big rushing potential.  Darnold seems super meh to me.

I find the love for Darnold perplexing. I get that he was a hyped prospect and draft high but he really didn't show much in his rookie season, in fantasy or reality. He wasn't even a QB2 last year. I guess plenty of people disagree with that because everyone seems to be back on the "Darnold is great" train (after a few jumped off his last year of college). I view his ceiling as somewhere on the Cousins/Dalton spectrum and I'm not even sure he'll get to that level.

From a fantasy perspective I just don't see why you'd bother with him, given that the league is now flooded with good starting QB options. Maybe he takes a leap this year, but I don't see any reason to have faith in that unless you thought he was a can't miss prospect to begin with (and I certainly didn't). I just don't see a scenario where he's a consistent QB1 for your fantasy team over the next few years.

As for Kyler vs Darnold, I don't even think that's a conversation. 

Edited by RushHour
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1 minute ago, RushHour said:

I find the love for Darnold perplexing. I get that he was a hyped prospect and draft high but he really didn't show much in his rookie season, in fantasy or reality. He wasn't even a QB2 last year. I guess plenty of people disagree with that because everyone seems to be back on the "Darnold is great" train (after a few jumped off his last year of college). I view his ceiling as somewhere on the Cousins/Dalton spectrum and I'm not even sure he'll get to that level.

From a fantasy perspective I just don't see why you'd bother with him, given that the league is now flooded with good starting QB options. Maybe he takes a leap this year, but I don't see any reason to have faith in that unless you thought he was a can't miss prospect to begin with (and I certainly didn't). I just don't see a scenario where he's a consistent QB1 for your fantasy team over the next few years.

Well said and I couldn't agree more.  Even in dynasty I'd much rather have a boring old vet like Rivers, Ben, or Brees.  I'd even take Garappolo over him.

Dalton ceiling sounds about right to me.  Cousins as a bright side.

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I don't plan to add any leagues in the coming years, but here are some startup values I like based on these free dynasty rankings. I'd list more rookies in general, but this site seems extremely conservative on prospects, to the point where their rankings of people like Jacobs and Sanders don't reflect the market reality.

 

RB31 Kenyan Drake - Top 15 PPR RB finish last year and even though he's not built to be the guy and his own coaches don't seem to trust him, he's the best offensive weapon on the Dolphins and a guy with standout big play skills and versatility. If you can get him at RB3 prices, you've done very well.

RB72 Alexander Mattison - Dalvin Cook is arguably one of the most overrated RBs in dynasty right now, and while I do think he has a chance to thrive, Mattison looms as a potential challenger if Cook isn't able to improve in his second year back from injury. Mattison doesn't project to be a special back, but is a 220+ pounder with three down ability. Decent upside at a very low entry price.

WR17 DJ Moore - It's hard to argue that he should be significantly higher than this since the WR depth is quite good and Moore's owners are likely to demand a steep price, but he flashed a high ceiling last year and this might be the last season when he's not untouchable. I wouldn't pay WR1 value for him because there's little upside at that cost, but if you can get him as your WR2 then I think he makes a lot of sense.

WR23 Allen Robinson - In the last calendar year he went from being overrated to underrated. His numbers really weren't that awful in 2018 despite a new team, a green QB, and limited opportunities. He's the best receiver on the Bears and if they dial up a few more passes next season then it's not tough to envision him as a 1000+ yard guy again. Don't put yourself in a position to depend on him because he's totally unreliable, but at a WR3 cost there's a solid risk/reward value.

WR36 Tyreek Hill - He's an idiot and a scumbag, but we know what he can do on the football field. If you don't have any ethical qualms about rooting for him then you might as well toss out some lowball offers because his PPG ceiling is something that's very rare and difficult to find.

WR49 Deebo Samuel - Probably the best WR on the Niners out of the box. He isn't an ELITE prospect, but he's pretty good and his play style means they can get the ball to him in a variety of ways. I've been taking him in a lot of rookie drafts and he's a player who would also be a sneaky option in best ball redraft leagues.

WR76 John Ross - I've always had my doubts about him and so far he looks like a bust, but this is just so cheap for a young player with a high ceiling who may yet figure it out. The risk at a WR76 value is so low that you've essentially lost nothing if he flops.

TE17 Mark Andrews & TE24 Hayden Hurst - I own both he and Andrews in numerous leagues and like both of them at their current ADP level. Despite Andrews having the better rookie year, I think Hurst is the better athlete. He was one of my favorite players in last year's draft and has a top 10 TE ceiling.

TE34 Tyler Eifert - He's never healthy, but the ceiling of a 100% Eifert is a top 3-4 receiving TE in the league, and that's well worth a shot.

2019 ROOKIE TE class - I like quite a few of them and most of them present solid value in drafts, especially the day 2 guys. When other people are throwing darts at JAG level rookie RBs and WRs, I'd consider stashing one or two of these guys and hoping that you hit a Cooley/Kelce/Ertz. Their talent level relative to their ADP represents a good value, even factoring in that TE is a devalued position is most leagues.

Mildly intrigued by: Rashaad Penny, Jaylen Samuels, Robert Foster, Michael Gallup, Quincy Enunwa, and Daniel Jones simply because he's getting dissed so hard on ADP for a top 10 overall pick

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5 hours ago, DAG said:

What are folks with rebuilding or non-contending teams doing with David Johnson? I just traded him away in a TE premium for OJ Howard (as part of a larger deal) on a team that I need to rebuild. I actually expect him to do well this season, mainly because I expect him to be involved in the passing game again. But he'll be 28 before the regular season ends and it feels like this year is a good chance to get some exit value.

Disgustingly bad trade. A top-5-ish RB for a TE with bad hands on a team with literally dozens of other options. 

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

2019 ROOKIE TE class - I like quite a few of them and most of them present solid value in drafts, especially the day 2 guys. When other people are throwing darts at JAG level rookie RBs and WRs, I'd consider stashing one or two of these guys and hoping that you hit a Cooley/Kelce/Ertz. Their talent level relative to their ADP represents a good value, even factoring in that TE is a devalued position is most leagues.

Who specifically do you like out of that group?  They all basically went to good/great landing spots.  I listed them in order of their draft pedigree.

Irv Smith - Vikings

Drew Sample - Bengals (I think most of us realize he's a blocker only though so I don't expect someone to be high on him, I'm even more interested to learn why if he is the guy you're referring to though)

Josh Oliver - Jaguars

Jace Sternberger - Packers

Kahale Warring - Texans

Dawson Knox - Bills

I for one am a fan of Warring and Knox and their play, plus you can get them super cheap.  Sternberger and Irv Smith cost more.  Then that leaves Oliver who some people are big fans of as well.  All these spots have giant'ish holes at TE and most of them are athletic freaks in some fashion.  

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8 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Who specifically do you like out of that group?  They all basically went to good/great landing spots.  I listed them in order of their draft pedigree.

Irv Smith - Vikings

Drew Sample - Bengals (I think most of us realize he's a blocker only though so I don't expect someone to be high on him, I'm even more interested to learn why if he is the guy you're referring to though)

Josh Oliver - Jaguars

Jace Sternberger - Packers

Kahale Warring - Texans

Dawson Knox - Bills

I for one am a fan of Warring and Knox and their play, plus you can get them super cheap.  Sternberger and Irv Smith cost more.  Then that leaves Oliver who some people are big fans of as well.  All these spots have giant'ish holes at TE and most of them are athletic freaks in some fashion.  

I'm not necessarily a huge fan of the two first round guys at their ADP, but you can wait to the 3rd-4th round of rookie drafts and Knox/Oliver/Warring will usually be there. I consider all three good value at market price, but went with Warring when given a choice between all three. Oliver is considered the most limited blocker of the bunch, which could limit his field time because he's not Jordan Reed/Aaron Hernandez good as a receiver. Knox is a very good athlete, but wasn't heavily utilized as a receiver in college, so there's a little more mystery around what he can do.

Sample looks like a blocker and while I like Smith, I don't see a big gap between him to justify the ADP difference, as he often goes a full round above Warring/Knox/Oliver.

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

RB72 Alexander Mattison - Dalvin Cook is arguably one of the most overrated RBs in dynasty right now, and while I do think he has a chance to thrive, Mattison looms as a potential challenger if Cook isn't able to improve in his second year back from injury. Mattison doesn't project to be a special back, but is a 220+ pounder with three down ability. Decent upside at a very low entry price.

 

Dalvin has a career average of 4.7 YPC. Not sure how that is overrated or he needs to improve, he just needs to stay healthy.  As such I find Mattison to be one of the most overrated players in dynasty drafts and frankly surprised this many people are spending late seconds on Dalvin's handcuff.

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21 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Dalvin has a career average of 4.7 YPC. Not sure how that is overrated or he needs to improve, he just needs to stay healthy.  As such I find Mattison to be one of the most overrated players in dynasty drafts and frankly surprised this many people are spending late seconds on Dalvin's handcuff.

He was brutal in a lot of games last year, has had durability issues in the NFL, and is small with marginal power. I'm actually a Cook owner in one dynasty league, but it's worth considering why the Vikings felt compelled to spend one of their top 3 draft picks on a RB. Given that Mattison is more of a "thunder" type to Cook's lightning, there's a hint that maybe they don't see Cook as a 300 touch back or a complete foundational RB.

Sometimes teams just go with BPA on their board, so I'm not necessarily saying Mattison is a threat to Cook, but he might be. It's not like we are talking about Zeke or Bell here with multiple elite seasons to his credit. We still don't necessarily know what Cook is in the NFL because he hasn't put together an impressive complete season, let alone multiple elite seasons. His job security may not be what people think it is.

Mattison's ADP is around the ~30 range in rookie drafts IIRC and I've gotten him mid 3rd in multiple leagues, so it's a bit deceptive to suggest that a 2nd round pick is the going rate. It's not very often that you can get a day two RB in the mid 3rd of rookie drafts, so I'll stand by what I said: Good value, even if the upside and talent aren't necessarily awe-inspiring. Value-per-cost is what should drive most draft/trade decisions and Mattison is a cheap dart throw.

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2 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Disgustingly bad trade. A top-5-ish RB for a TE with bad hands on a team with literally dozens of other options. 

They're dynasty assets heading in opposite directions in my opinion, especially in TE premium. As I said I expect DJ to be good this year but his rushing numbers have regressed (could be due to a bad o line but he still has that bad line), 2016 was his last good season, and he's going to be 28 in December. Howard was PFF's second highest graded TE last season (including a receiving grade of 90 -- while we're talking hands), and number 1 on a per-touch basis. I think he finds a way to produce despite the 36 other receivers who TB will target.

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12 minutes ago, EBF said:

He was brutal in a lot of games last year, has had durability issues in the NFL, and is small with marginal power. I'm actually a Cook owner in one dynasty league, but it's worth considering why the Vikings felt compelled to spend one of their top 3 draft picks on a RB. Given that Mattison is more of a "thunder" type to Cook's lightning, there's a hint that maybe they don't see Cook as a 300 touch back or a complete foundational RB.

Sometimes teams just go with BPA on their board, so I'm not necessarily saying Mattison is a threat to Cook, but he might be. It's not like we are talking about Zeke or Bell here with multiple elite seasons to his credit. We still don't necessarily know what Cook is in the NFL because he hasn't put together an impressive complete season, let alone multiple elite seasons. His job security may not be what people think it is.

Mattison's ADP is around the ~30 range in rookie drafts IIRC and I've gotten him mid 3rd in multiple leagues, so it's a bit deceptive to suggest that a 2nd round pick is the going rate. It's not very often that you can get a day two RB in the mid 3rd of rookie drafts, so I'll stand by what I said: Good value, even if the upside and talent aren't necessarily awe-inspiring. Value-per-cost is what should drive most draft/trade decisions and Mattison is a cheap dart throw.

He was trying to come back from an ACL while dealing with a hamstring injury running behind a porous OL and still put it together.

They basically fired the OC because he would not give him more carries. I feel good and secure about his role.

I feel like people are overvaluing Mattisons draft capital.  It's almost like department store pricing, he was one pick from a 4th and it was a pick they got from trading down.

Speaking of Elliot the Cowboys used their third pick in the draft on a RB as well. Round 4 but not that much later then Mattison. Cook was a lot better his first 15 games then Bell was in his if you want to bring him up.

Cook's only fault is he can't stay healthy so they used the last pick of the third round, after trading down, on his backup because they had next to nothing after Cook.

I take issue with the bit deceptive comment. Mattison has gone round two of plenty of my drafts and so it's only natural for me to comment that if that is the case, which I keep seeing,  he is one of the more overrrated players in this draft. That's not deceptive, just stating an actual fact that I'm surprised I keep seeing people do this.

Appreciate your posts and your stance, but think you are very wrong on this one.

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3 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Appreciate your posts and your stance, but think you are very wrong on this one.

I mean, you are squabbling about a guy who is rated as the dynasty RB76 and has a 12 team rookie draft ADP of 3.05 per DLF. It's hard to be "very wrong" when the entry cost is almost zero. Even if you buy that Cook is a legit franchise back, if Mattison is roughly a top 20 backup in the NFL then he should be a top 50 dynasty RB.

Much ado about nothing.

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13 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Disgustingly bad trade. A top-5-ish RB for a TE with bad hands on a team with literally dozens of other options

Who are the literally dozens of options on the Bucs ahead of Howard?

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Who are the literally dozens of options on the Bucs ahead of Howard?

Evans, Godwin, and..........

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Who are the literally dozens of options on the Bucs ahead of Howard?

There's literally figuratively hundreds of other options!

But to be serious, I don't like his prospects in the Arians offense.

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25 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on Ebron in PPR?

Early 2nd

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36 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on Ebron in PPR?

I wouldn't sell him for less than a high 1st, and even then only if I had a legitimate TE1 in front of him. He has gotten better almost every year, is still young, and in a GREAT spot. 2018 may have been his high water mark, but in PPR his finish would have been good for WR20. I would never let him go for a 2nd. I think his value ought to be much higher. I know nobody is paying an early 1st, but I wouldn't sell for less than that. What I would be more inclined to do is package him with something else and really try to pump up his value. But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.

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False Narrative - that Doyle will block Ebron

2018 results

Ebron PPR with Doyle playing : 17.7 PPG (12.1 for Doyle)

Ebron PPR w/o Doyle playing :  13.6 PPG

With both playing, Ebron put up 

15.1

11.6

12.7

27.9

21.5

With Ebron by himself, he put up:

8.3

15.0

31.5

17.0

6.1

18.1

16.5

1.8

5.8

16.0

Not sure we can say a lot about the difference here. Ebron actually did better with Doyle *in* the lineup, but had plenty of good games and a few clunkers in games without Doyle. I think the take home message is that Doyle sucks and that Ebron should be considered a main target in an Andrew Luck offense for the next several years.

 

For good measure, Doyle had:

13

4

22

8.1

10.3

13.6

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12 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.

I traded Ebron away in two of the 3 leagues I own him and I did so because I do in fact think Doyle is in his way. Seemed pretty clear that was the case last year and if anything with adding Funchess and to a lesser degree Parris I think it might be worse.   If you isolate Ebron's games with Doyle last year he did do ok but he also scored a TD at a pace of one a game if you just look at the 5 games that Doyle was able to start and finish which is weeks 1-2, 8, 10-11..  It's obvious Ebron has become a big time red zone threat but I don't want to rely on a guy needing to score a TD every week on limited snaps because in the 5 full games that Doyle was able to play and finish Ebron averaged just 23.4 snaps, 2.6 catches and 36.6 yards to go along with one TD a game. That' some pretty light non-TD production and one of those 5 games he goose egged you which when you playing limited snaps and not always on the field in the 2 minute offense you are going to be prone to do.

I still have Ebron on one team and I have Doyle on that team. I'd like to think I got two starting caliber TE options out of the duo but really kind of afraid I just got a big WDIS  headache. This is not a PC thing to say but I'd probably be happier about this situation if one of them got hurt again.

That's his outlook for 2019 IMO anyway and I'll just assume he will recover fine from his groin surgery.  Of course both he and Doyle are in the last year of their deals and Funchess was only signed on a one year deal so his situation and team could look drastically different next year so I can see him working out for teams in the long run.

Do agree he has gotten better almost each year of his career, he did take a dip the first half of his last season in Detroit which he tried to chalk up to being worried about getting traded. And despite the lack of TD's the second half of his last season in Detroit he was actually more efficient then he was last year, as good as he did last year he still failed to come down with several passes he should have including many in the red zone.

Lastly these are TE premium leagues/FFPC as you know it so not PPR but as it relates to competing against his fellow TE's it's actually worse in this format to be TD dependent for a TE. I'd rather have the high volume reception guy who never sees the endzone, like Jason Witten when he was good, in this format.

 

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33 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I wouldn't sell him for less than a high 1st, and even then only if I had a legitimate TE1 in front of him. He has gotten better almost every year, is still young, and in a GREAT spot. 2018 may have been his high water mark, but in PPR his finish would have been good for WR20. I would never let him go for a 2nd. I think his value ought to be much higher. I know nobody is paying an early 1st, but I wouldn't sell for less than that. What I would be more inclined to do is package him with something else and really try to pump up his value. But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.

I still own him in a couple leagues, and I’m a bitter lions fan that was pretty motivated to get him off my team. I tried several different trade ideas but ultimately that’s what I could get- 2.03 and 2.01. 

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17 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

False Narrative - that Doyle will block Ebron

2018 results

Ebron PPR with Doyle playing : 17.7 PPG (12.1 for Doyle)

Ebron PPR w/o Doyle playing :  13.6 PPG

With both playing, Ebron put up 

15.1

11.6

12.7

27.9

21.5

With Ebron by himself, he put up:

8.3

15.0

31.5

17.0

6.1

18.1

16.5

1.8

5.8

16.0

Not sure we can say a lot about the difference here. Ebron actually did better with Doyle *in* the lineup, but had plenty of good games and a few clunkers in games without Doyle. I think the take home message is that Doyle sucks and that Ebron should be considered a main target in an Andrew Luck offense for the next several years.

 

For good measure, Doyle had:

13

4

22

8.1

10.3

13.6

I just made a long post before seeing this so let me just say the snap and target counts for Ebron in the 5 full games with Doyle vs the 10 without him is night and day difference.

Snap counts:

37(which afterward Reich said was to much and as you can see by usage ROS with Doyle he meant it)

17

17

21

25

So he gets 37 snaps, Reich says it is more then they want to use him, and he then proceeds to be very much a part time player in the other 4 full games with Doyle. A very efficient part time player but that's what he was, a specialized weapon really. And btw Ebron is good with this arrangement, said it was discussed before he signed.

Average is 23.6 snaps, exactly 3 targets a game in those 5 games with Doyle.

Doyle played most of week 12 but the hit that ended his season was early in 4th quarter, Ebron caught 2 more passes after Doyle left, one for a TD, but I'm throwing that hybrid game out in large part because I simply don't know how to sort out the snap count, not cherry picking.

So I got 10 games left of all Ebron with no Doyle and in those 10 games he averaged 46.7 snaps, 8.8 targets a game.

Let's put this side by side:

5 full games with Doyle: 23.6 snaps, 3 targets

10 full games without Doyle: 46.7 snaps, 8.8 targets

As I alluded to earlier he scored fine in fantasy without Doyle because he scored 5 TD's in 5 games but I just don't trust relying on that from a player with so few snaps and targets.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on Ebron in PPR?

I'd say 1.6. I'd take Ebron over Hockenson.

I think its a mistake to assume that just because Doyle out snapped him last year, that he will again. That was before Ebron had a big year, and Doyle had multiple injuries including a season ender.

Ebron is kind of in that "so overrated that he's underrated" bubble, where while he's obviously not going to have 700 yards, and 13 TD's again, its just as unlikely that he'll drop back to 500-4. 

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On 5/13/2019 at 3:56 PM, DAG said:

I have Darnold and Murray close too, but the tie-breaker for me is Murray's rushing potential. 

Agreed. The 1000 extra rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs for Murray breaks the tie for me, too. 

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On 5/13/2019 at 2:02 PM, Zow said:

So here some value discussion on Darnold and Kyler.  I had 1.2 in a 2qb rookie/FA draft. Jacobs went first so Kyler was obvious pick. After some back and forth the best offer I got was Darnold, Gesicki, and Lesean McCoy.  Would up turning it down. 

 

For comparison, was also offered:

1.3 and Marvin Jones

1.5 and 1.10

Kirk Cousins

Golladay and 1.5 

Update: 

Same owner just offered me Darnold and DK Metcalf for Kyler.  I think I gotta do it. 

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2 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'd say 1.6. I'd take Ebron over Hockenson.

I think its a mistake to assume that just because Doyle out snapped him last year, that he will again. That was before Ebron had a big year, and Doyle had multiple injuries including a season ender.

Ebron is kind of in that "so overrated that he's underrated" bubble, where while he's obviously not going to have 700 yards, and 13 TD's again, its just as unlikely that he'll drop back to 500-4. 

Timely.  Was just offered Ebron for Hockenson. 

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19 minutes ago, Zow said:

Update: 

Same owner just offered me Darnold and DK Metcalf for Kyler.  I think I gotta do it. 

I would.

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

5 full games with Doyle: 23.6 snaps, 3 targets

10 full games without Doyle: 46.7 snaps, 8.8 targets

:goodposting:

I have Hockenson > Ebron.

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7 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I would.

I just made the trade.  Here's to hoping Kyler isn't Mahomes 2.0 and Darnold is good to great the next 5-10 years. 

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4 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I wouldn't sell him for less than a high 1st, and even then only if I had a legitimate TE1 in front of him. He has gotten better almost every year, is still young, and in a GREAT spot. 2018 may have been his high water mark, but in PPR his finish would have been good for WR20. I would never let him go for a 2nd. I think his value ought to be much higher. I know nobody is paying an early 1st, but I wouldn't sell for less than that. What I would be more inclined to do is package him with something else and really try to pump up his value. But so many people are down on him for some reason. I honestly don't get it. Jack Doyle is not in his way.

Doyle destroyed Ebron's snap count when he came back. I think he's absolutely in his way.

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1 hour ago, dipandglide said:

Thoughts on Landry? Are you guys buying or selling for a mid-1st?

That’s tough imo. I’ve never been on the Landry bandwagon, but it’s hard to say “I’d rather have” with this draft class. Reasonable floor low ceiling for Landry, I’d like a guy with a bigger ceiling, but it’s really risky with this class. 

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10 hours ago, ZWK said:

:goodposting:

I have Hockenson > Ebron.

Why?  Stafford has never supported a quality fantasy TE, and I don't see anything from that franchise which indicates that they are going to be doing so any time soon.

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14 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

Why?  Stafford has never supported a quality fantasy TE, and I don't see anything from that franchise which indicates that they are going to be doing so any time soon.

I mean, other than drafting a TE in the top 10.

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5 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

That’s tough imo. I’ve never been on the Landry bandwagon, but it’s hard to say “I’d rather have” with this draft class. Reasonable floor low ceiling for Landry, I’d like a guy with a bigger ceiling, but it’s really risky with this class. 

I had the chance to do so with Metcalf and Deebo still on the board and I passed, but it was partly team composition. If I was going to start Landry, I would take the deal. I think "bigger ceiling" is so arbitrary. If Mayfield succeeds to his current dynasty valuation, Landry has great upside, assuming full PPR.

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5 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

That’s tough imo. I’ve never been on the Landry bandwagon, but it’s hard to say “I’d rather have” with this draft class. Reasonable floor low ceiling for Landry, I’d like a guy with a bigger ceiling, but it’s really risky with this class. 

Out of the WR's I'll play your game

I'd rather have:

Deebo Samuel, N'Keal Harry, AJ Brown, Parris Campbell, DK Metcalf, Andy Isabella, Mecole Hardman

One of those is usually slipping to mid 2nd in most of my drafts so no, I wouldn't pay a 1st at all.  I'd rather replace him with a rookie who I view to have solid floors.  Those are all of them.  

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

I had the chance to do so with Metcalf and Deebo still on the board and I passed, but it was partly team composition. If I was going to start Landry, I would take the deal. I think "bigger ceiling" is so arbitrary. If Mayfield succeeds to his current dynasty valuation, Landry has great upside, assuming full PPR.

How about “Landry won’t be more than a volume driven ppr asset on a team that has added more and more weapons that threaten his volume.” 

Edited by Snorkelson
Capping his upside

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34 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

I had the chance to do so with Metcalf and Deebo still on the board and I passed, but it was partly team composition. If I was going to start Landry, I would take the deal. I think "bigger ceiling" is so arbitrary. If Mayfield succeeds to his current dynasty valuation, Landry has great upside, assuming full PPR.

I’ll also point to mahomes season as an argument against your point but admit it is a valid point and the mahomes season could be an outlier. No good wr2 there.

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1 minute ago, Snorkelson said:

I’ll also point to mahomes season as an argument against your point but admit it is a valid point and the mahomes season could be an outlier. No good wr2 there.

Kelce functioned as the WR2, right? And he had 100 receptions. I view OBJ as a positive. I don't think Landry can function well as a NFL WR1 with just Njoku and Duke Johnson to complement him, unless Baker becomes Tom Brady (or Jake Delhomme). But with OBJ there, it clears the middle for him. I don't expect Baker to approximate Mahomes' season anytime soon (possible but will take old school QB development not new school breaking the meta). Landry can still be a low WR1 with the current team composition, IMO.

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42 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Out of the WR's I'll play your game

I'd rather have:

Deebo Samuel, N'Keal Harry, AJ Brown, Parris Campbell, DK Metcalf, Andy Isabella, Mecole Hardman

One of those is usually slipping to mid 2nd in most of my drafts so no, I wouldn't pay a 1st at all.  I'd rather replace him with a rookie who I view to have solid floors.  Those are all of them.  

This is how I see it.

Also I think when the running game is effective it's  takes away from Landry who I think is often used as extension of the running game. In 2016 in Miami when Ajay took off his targets plummeted. Last year when Chubb took over same thing. He is a volume dependent WR who I don't project to get nearly the volume he has in the past. He'll be more efficient, but it's not a fair trade off.

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1 minute ago, thriftyrocker said:

Kelce functioned as the WR2, right? And he had 100 receptions. I view OBJ as a positive. I don't think Landry can function well as a NFL WR1 with just Njoku and Duke Johnson to complement him, unless Baker becomes Tom Brady (or Jake Delhomme). But with OBJ there, it clears the middle for him. I don't expect Baker to approximate Mahomes' season anytime soon (possible but will take old school QB development not new school breaking the meta). Landry can still be a low WR1 with the current team composition, IMO.

Like I said I’ve never been on the bandwagon and he’s proven me wrong several times, so I won’t beat this drum too hard. 

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1 hour ago, thriftyrocker said:

I mean, other than drafting a TE in the top 10.

So they'll #### us all over the same way they did when they took Ebron in the top 10.

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7 hours ago, dipandglide said:

Thoughts on Landry? Are you guys buying or selling for a mid-1st?

I'd take Landry over any WR in this class. I think he could be the Welker to Beckham's Moss. 

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