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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

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4 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

You need to immediately try to get their 2020 firsts then, since they clearly don't understand their value at this point. 

Edited by Ratbone
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1 hour ago, Born to Run said:

Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

This is the type of trade I look to make every year, just can't always find any takers. This year in particular as nearly everyone is valuing 2020 1st's thru the roof.

All it takes is an injury, suspension or disappointing player and that borderline playoff team is picking high the next year.

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1 hour ago, Born to Run said:

Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

How is that possibly a rip off? 

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10 minutes ago, kutta said:

How is that possibly a rip off? 

I think it translates to: I didn't get to them first!

Yeah, I like the move as well.

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Regarding the Landry discussion, i traded him away this off-season as I am worried that Mayfield just does not seem to like to play the short game, which is Landry's specialty and I just don't think the volume will be there for him to have very high value.  He was my WR4 in a start 2 league so he wasn't a crucial piece.  All of that said, I'd definitely deal him away for a mid first this year but that's just me.

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2 hours ago, Born to Run said:

Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

That's literally what every trade-out looks like when it's 2 futures for the current first round pick.


EDIT: Unless it's a very early 1st... then it should be 1st/2nd but those are rare.

Edited by Flying Elvis

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How do you value Stafford in a SuperFlex format? I always think of him as a middle of the road guy and I'm not sure Patricia is going to be good for his passing numbers. The Sony Michel owner put out a feeler about Damien Harris and asked about my interest in Stafford. Passing TDs are 4 pts, Ints are -2 pts.

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52 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?

I think so, but I also think Pettis is better than any of the guys they drafted. In addition, Shanahan's offense is a complex one, and even the best players have said it isn't until year 2 that they feel comfortable. Pettis has a pretty big leg up there, in addition to being at least if not more talented than Samuel.

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8 hours ago, northern exposure said:

How do you value Stafford in a SuperFlex format? I always think of him as a middle of the road guy and I'm not sure Patricia is going to be good for his passing numbers. The Sony Michel owner put out a feeler about Damien Harris and asked about my interest in Stafford. Passing TDs are 4 pts, Ints are -2 pts.

He's my QB1 in a start 1 QB league w/6 pt per TD & he has no value. I don't want him & I can't move him

Edited by hispeedthinmint

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?

I admittedly didn't like Pettis last year and his rookie year suggests I may have underrated him some, but he still seems pretty JAG-y to me. Good burst, but you expect that when you're talking about a WR with a famine-like BMI. In terms of weight-per-height, he is in the same range as people like Marquise Brown and DeSean Jackson. Very light frame, yet he isn't as explosive as those guys. I don't see a likely path to a WR1 role for an NFL team in his future. That the Niners went out and spent two top 75 picks on WRs isn't necessarily the end of Pettis, but it doesn't really bode well either.

I think Samuel is clearly the SF WR to own, as he was the highest pick of the lot and his play style is probably most conducive to a prolific FF output. He's a versatile weapon and with his strength/RAC skills, can be a target monster. Jimmy G had good success two years ago slinging bombs to Goodwin and Samuel isn't necessarily built to be the deep threat. He's more of a RAC chain mover type, but in PPR where reception volume is important, I still think he's the guy you want. I would even recommend him as a sneaky late pick in redraft, though rookie output can be tough to predict. His play style is reminiscent of Boldin and JuJu, and this type of WR has had some success at hitting the ground running.

I think this rookie draft class is pretty thin and there's a point beyond roughly the mid 2nd where I stop liking the WR talent. I would take Deebo, AJ Brown, Harry, M Brown, and Isabella over Pettis. I don't care for Metcalf much, but from a market value standpoint he's > Pettis. When things thin out and you get into the Diontae/McLaurin/Boykin/Hurd portion of the rookie draft, I think Pettis starts to look pretty good, but that's usually the late 2nd-early 3rd. That's about what I'd feel okay giving up for Pettis if I needed WR help.

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15 hours ago, Born to Run said:

Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

Your league mates are idiots. My thoughts.

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12 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?

Easily.

If he and Deebo had come out at the same time, I'd probably like Deebo a little more as a prospect. But once a guy has shown legitimate NFL talent they've got a clear leg up on any rookie, no matter where they are drafted. In this case, they were drafted at just about the same spot and they are currently about the same age. I'd pay a late 1st for Pettis if I had the option.

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14 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?

I'd take 8 WR's over him in this draft but since those 8 WR's are usually off the board in the early to middle round 2 area I think a mid to late second sounds about right to me.

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15 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?

It would take the right owner to part with him for 'just' a 2nd round pick.

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15 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Is Dante Pettis worth a 2nd round pick after sf upgraded its wrs this off-season?

Someone traded 2.04 and 2.11 for him in one of my leagues while our rookie draft was going.  

I don’t think he’s worth that or even an earl 2nd alone but to some he is.  I just think it’s a mistake.

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5 hours ago, Snorkelson said:
21 hours ago, Born to Run said:

Just traded away my 2019 1.11 for 2020 1st and 3rd. The team I traded with was a wild card playoff loser in 2019 and appears to be the same next year. League mates are claiming I got ripped off. I like it and there was no player at 1.11 that would immediately improve my team. Interested in your thoughts.

Your league mates are idiots. My thoughts. 

This is why I love this game, because it can be so dynamic.  For me, it depends on who is on the board.  I was not going to trade my 1.14 while Fant was there, once he went I moved it for a 2020.  But if a wildcard team gets a contributor at that pick, that 2020 might be an even later one. 

It's way, way too early to call 2020 a deeper or better draft after the top 5.  Yes, it's LOADED at the top.  But after the obvious Swift/Ettiene/Akers/Jeudy/Lamb/maybe Taylor tier what next?  Dobbins looked the part as a freshman but didn't look nearly as dynamic last year - this coming from a raging OSU homer.  12 months ago people were raging about Harmon and Bryan Edwards and look at them now.  Is Taylor legit or is there any part of a dominating system propping him up?   Everyone else looks like guys we're trying to fill a top 10 list rather than guys that are putting themselves on it.  I haven't seen Shenault live so maybe I am missing that but if you're offering me a guy that I know I like today vs. a guy I might not have any control over I am fine keeping/trading for that.

That being said I have 12 2020 1sts in 4 leagues and I do love them.  I just think people are overdoing it at times.

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15 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?

 

I've been trying to get my hands on Robby Anderson a lot lately, but nobody seems to be budging on him being a 1st round pick.  I don't see it and thought he'd be cheaper.  Same goes for Enunwa except he is cheap and very obtainable for WR3 type value that I think he can deliver.  

Devante Parker is another guy, he is the default #1 on the team and I feel like Adam Gase really screwed with his potential and his mental makeup.  He gets a new coaching staff and a clean slate to not get in the dog house, but he's cheap and probably a decent WR3 on a squad.  

Julian Edelman is going to be ultra productive this year, people are sleeping on him because I assume they think he's only a playoff guy.  Not sure of his price though.  1 ADP source I use has him going 11.02 in startups and another source has him at 7.06.  I think both are values if you go RB early.  I'm more fond of the 11th round though.  

Donte Moncrief I like a lot as well.  I don't believe in James Washington or Vance being a huge beneficiary to AB being gone, Moncrief is solid yet unspectacular, kind of sneaky good.  Probably cheap. 

John Brown I can see a case for him as well although I won't be targeting him.  

As for RB's I'm snatching up some TJ Yeldon, Brian Hill, D'onte Foreman and Lamar Miller.  All of who are either somewhat cheap or cheap as dirt with good opportunity in front of them to be a RB2.  Lamar Miller obviously being the safest of that bunch.  But I liked Foreman a lot coming out of college (hopefully he can return to form).  I believe the bills will cut Shady, that leaves 36 year old Gore as the main competition, and Brian Hill has opportunity once Freeman gets hurt again.  

These guys aren't exactly "old" but I tend to stay away from the 30 year olds.  Edelman is the exception.

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34 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?

 

Not sure about the older part, but cheap patches includes Peyton Barber, Adrian Peterson (maybe), DeVante Parker, Nick Foles. Darren Waller flyer at TE.

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Edelman is a big one for me. 

I really like Enunwa, but he seems to only produce when he’s in the slot. With Crowder and Bell on the roster, that’s not likely to happen very often. He’s still a guy I’ll be jumping on if cut, and might even move a small piece for, I just don’t expect to be able to start him this season.

I like Brown and even Beasley as options. Not expecting a whole lot, but they’re essentially free (Beasley literally).

Outside of those you mentioned, I like Brees, Boyle and LMcCoy at their ADPs. I expect WR3 numbers from Fitz, so I’d move a future 3rd for him, if I have room for him in my lineup. I’ll buy Rudolph if his owners think he’s done after the Irv pick.

These are all contingent on my roster, of course. I like to invest in top tier guys and get my depth from cheap vets or WW pickups. I’m only going out of my way to get these guys if I have a need for them.

 

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20 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Donte Moncrief I like a lot as well.  I don't believe in James Washington or Vance being a huge beneficiary to AB being gone, Moncrief is solid yet unspectacular, kind of sneaky good.  Probably cheap. 

And sneaky young. I think he's only like a year older than Calvin Ridley and two years older than Deebo.

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32 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?

Feels like a trick question because there aren't any.

WR is real tough. I like Albert Wilson in Miami. I think Golden Tate is undervalued based on his struggles fitting in with Philly and will do better with a full offseason in NY, but still wouldn't go for him. I would rather pay a 4th for Cobb than a 2nd for Tate, but if you really need the starter Tate is a much better bet.

TE seems the easiest position to go cheap. If I were doing a startup, I'd probably take Irv or Sternberger as a TE1, then grab 3 of Walker, Olsen, Eifert, Waller, McDonald, ASJ, and figure it out. Ed Dickson is someone I like for no good reason.

RB its still easy to get a RB2 type like Yeldon, Ekeler, or Duke Johnson. I don't feel good about any of the old workhorses or damaged goods prospects. Loading up on the 3rd or 4th best options in KC, Pitt, LAR, or Indy seems like a good strategy too.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?

Looking at dynasty ADP gives me a feel for who is cheap, but as always league setup and owner values differ. Looking outside the top 20 for QB, top 35 for RB, top 40 for WR, and top 12 for TE:

QB21 - Stafford: after several nice seasons he had a down year. He'll have a healthy set of WRs in Marvin, Golladay, Amendola, and Hock to go along with KJ and Riddick. I think he bounces back.
QB23 - Rivers: he's getting old but should still have a few good years left. His weapons remain the same.
RB39 - Lamar Miller: I don't really like him but I like Foreman less. Solid opportunity for another year.
RB60 - Dion Lewis: should still figure into the game plan and catch some passes.
WR43 - Shepard: too cheap for his age and opportunity.
WR45 - Marvin: still in his prime and dirt cheap considering his opportunity and past production.
WR63 - Albert Wilson: fairly young and wildy productive with bad QB play last year; worth a shot.
WR70 - John Brown: Allen probably sucks, but Brown fits his skill set.
WR72 - Moncrief: already mentioned but I love this one. So cheap, relatively young, and in a prime spot.
WR98 - Keelan Cole: really cheap and JAX WR competition seems wide open.
TE15 - Jared Cook: prime spot.
TE18 - Rudolph: always fade the rookie TE; bonus 2020 free agency.
TE22 - Doyle: snap count leader and Luck's safety blanket.
TE31 - Eifert: such a cheap flyer, probably top 5 when healthy, so why not?
 

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8 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Speaking of Tate. Do we expect him or Shepard to get most of the slot work? I want no part of the guy playing on the outside.

I'm guessing Tate is the slot guy. It's understandable to be wary of the outside guy, but the risk/reward is favorable for Shepard, IMO.

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Who are the cheap, older vets you are targeting for depth, or as short-term patches in your lineups?

RB: Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber are the two that I've been able to trade for. I've also made offers for guys like Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, and LeSean McCoy.

TE: Delanie Walker. In TE premium leagues I've also been trying to collect cheap young upside like Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, and Will Dissly.

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in existing leagues, i define cheap as 3rd round rookie or worse

RB: Murray, in PPR Lewis, Gio and Duke

WR: Moncrief (#2 in Pit is wide open), Lee (never know which WR a new QB will click with), Snead

TE: Walker, Olsen, Eifert...  not sure you can get Rudolph that cheaply

 

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2 hours ago, ZWK said:

RB: Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber are the two that I've been able to trade for. I've also made offers for guys like Lamar Miller, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, and LeSean McCoy.

TE: Delanie Walker. In TE premium leagues I've also been trying to collect cheap young upside like Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, and Will Dissly.

Do you still think Richard has value after them drafting Josh Jacobs and signing Crowell?  I would imagine that backfield is Jacobs, Crowell, Warren, Richard in that order.  Before the draft he was a good flier but now?  I'm not so sure.  

I said this in the trades thread too about Peyton Barber, fool me once.... Lots of people had him as the buy last year, I'm not falling for that trap again.  

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Do you still think Richard has value after them drafting Josh Jacobs and signing Crowell?  I would imagine that backfield is Jacobs, Crowell, Warren, Richard in that order.  Before the draft he was a good flier but now?  I'm not so sure.  

I said this in the trades thread too about Peyton Barber, fool me once.... Lots of people had him as the buy last year, I'm not falling for that trap again.  

Crowell blew out his Achilles.

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3 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Do you still think Richard has value after them drafting Josh Jacobs and signing Crowell?  I would imagine that backfield is Jacobs, Crowell, Warren, Richard in that order.  Before the draft he was a good flier but now?  I'm not so sure.  

I said this in the trades thread too about Peyton Barber, fool me once.... Lots of people had him as the buy last year, I'm not falling for that trap again.  

Crow is on IR

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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Looking at dynasty ADP gives me a feel for who is cheap, but as always league setup and owner values differ. Looking outside the top 20 for QB, top 35 for RB, top 40 for WR, and top 12 for TE:

TE31 - Eifert: such a cheap flyer, probably top 5 when healthy, so why not?
 

Reed for Washington should be on this list too. Yeah he's banged up a lot (like Eifert) but when he's healthy he's top 5 potential and he can be had dirt cheap. And early reports are very good on Haskins. 

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2 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Reed for Washington should be on this list too. Yeah he's banged up a lot (like Eifert) but when he's healthy he's top 5 potential and he can be had dirt cheap. And early reports are very good on Haskins. 

Excellent point. Not sure how I glossed over him at TE27. With their lack of proven WR targets, Reed should be in for a nice workload if he can stay healthy.

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4 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

This is why I love this game, because it can be so dynamic.  For me, it depends on who is on the board.  I was not going to trade my 1.14 while Fant was there, once he went I moved it for a 2020.  But if a wildcard team gets a contributor at that pick, that 2020 might be an even later one. 

It's way, way too early to call 2020 a deeper or better draft after the top 5.  Yes, it's LOADED at the top.  But after the obvious Swift/Ettiene/Akers/Jeudy/Lamb/maybe Taylor tier what next?  Dobbins looked the part as a freshman but didn't look nearly as dynamic last year - this coming from a raging OSU homer.  12 months ago people were raging about Harmon and Bryan Edwards and look at them now.  Is Taylor legit or is there any part of a dominating system propping him up?   Everyone else looks like guys we're trying to fill a top 10 list rather than guys that are putting themselves on it.  I haven't seen Shenault live so maybe I am missing that but if you're offering me a guy that I know I like today vs. a guy I might not have any control over I am fine keeping/trading for that.

That being said I have 12 2020 1sts in 4 leagues and I do love them.  I just think people are overdoing it at times.

Yes things change. But paying 1.11 for a 2020 1/3 is a good move regardless of the draft class most years imo. It’s not like he has to take a guy now- ie harris/love last year to this year value.  There’s a good chance the pick is earlier (unless it’s a 16 team league maybe) and even if not it’s not like you’re forced to pick there. You can trade it or whatever. The depth of the draft won’t be known until February really. 

I think your league mates are dumb for crowing about it. It’s a pretty standard deal- late 1st for a future 1st with some sweetener. There isn’t some flawless prospect at 11 this year. 

That said, yes, if there is someone there that you like, absolutely I’d pay a future 1/3 to get the guy I covet. I wouldn’t feel like I got some ridiculous value though. 

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3 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Yes things change. But paying 1.11 for a 2020 1/3 is a good move regardless of the draft class most years imo. It’s not like he has to take a guy now- ie harris/love last year to this year value.  There’s a good chance the pick is earlier (unless it’s a 16 team league maybe) and even if not it’s not like you’re forced to pick there. You can trade it or whatever. The depth of the draft won’t be known until February really. 

I think your league mates are dumb for crowing about it. It’s a pretty standard deal- late 1st for a future 1st with some sweetener. There isn’t some flawless prospect at 11 this year. 

That said, yes, if there is someone there that you like, absolutely I’d pay a future 1/3 to get the guy I covet. I wouldn’t feel like I got some ridiculous value though. 

It wasn't my leaguemates or my trade FYI, I just jumped in with my thoughts.  I also wouldn't/didn't say ridiculous value either, just that it's worth considering in the moment.  I've seen so many "there's no reason not to trade any first rounder for 2020's" type posts that I am putting an opposing view out there.

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1 minute ago, Hankmoody said:

It wasn't my leaguemates or my trade FYI, I just jumped in with my thoughts.  I also wouldn't/didn't say ridiculous value either, just that it's worth considering in the moment.  I've seen so many "there's no reason not to trade any first rounder for 2020's" type posts that I am putting an opposing view out there.

Those people are ridiculous.  It’s almost always a good move to trade a late 1st for a future undecided 1st.  What’s worst that can happen?  You get similar pick in following draft.  Best case you get a top 5 pick.

easily worth the risk since there isn’t really any risk of getting screwed.

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1 minute ago, Hankmoody said:

It wasn't my leaguemates or my trade FYI, I just jumped in with my thoughts.  I also wouldn't/didn't say ridiculous value either, just that it's worth considering in the moment.  I've seen so many "there's no reason not to trade any first rounder for 2020's" type posts that I am putting an opposing view out there.

Oops my bad:) I traded a future 1st in one of my leagues, so I’m on board. The fact that his league said he got robbed is kind of ridiculois imo is all. 

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What does everyone think the value of Luck & Watson are in a 14 team 6 pt per TD PPR league are? I have offered a late 1st & been turned down. (Owner has plenty of QB depth)

Edited by hispeedthinmint

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14 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What does everyone think the value of Luck & Watson are in a 14 team 6 pt per TD PPR league are? I have offered a late 1st & been turned down. (Owner has plenty of QB depth)

They both have top 5 QB potential.  I think QB is the hardest position to value correctly as everyone is closer to their QB than the rest of their roster.

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25 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What does everyone think the value of Luck & Watson are in a 14 team 6 pt per TD PPR league are? I have offered a late 1st & been turned down. (Owner has plenty of QB depth)

I think both are worth more than a late 1st.  Especially Watson who is considered a top 3 dynasty QB and is only 23 years old. 

And just because he has a lot of QB depth doesn’t mean he should trade one for less than their value.  Not sure if you feel this way, but a lot of owners out there do. 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What does everyone think the value of Luck & Watson are in a 14 team 6 pt per TD PPR league are? I have offered a late 1st & been turned down. (Owner has plenty of QB depth)

Honestly, probably the 1.2. Jacobs is really the only guy I'd take over either of them. I like Luck slightly more, as I think he's a better passer, and has a better coaching staff around him. Also, while i realize Luck hasn't been the healthiest guy by any means, I trust him to stay healthy more than Watson, simply based on the hits Watson takes.

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4 minutes ago, foxco said:

Price check on Phillip Lindsey, what's his value in rookie picks? 

I'd say 1.2, but I'm of the belief he wasn't a fluke at all last year, so he's probably cheaper to acquire in many leagues.

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Trying to get a read on Chris Godwin's value in terms of a 2020 pick. Trade calculators seem to have his value at more than a mid 2020 1st round pick but discussions I've seen about him in this thread and the completed trades thread seem to value him at less. I think he will improve on last year's numbers but maybe not by much. Thoughts?

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22 minutes ago, foxco said:

Price check on Phillip Lindsey, what's his value in rookie picks? 

Probably right around Miles Sanders, honestly.  Each has a good shot at a sizeable workload, each has the threat of rbbc.  I expect you will find some owners who strongly prefer Lindsay, but others will strongly prefer Sanders.  

I guess that puts him in the mid-first.

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This offseason I’ve traded for Lindsay twice:

1.07/Gallup for Lindsay

and 

Late 2020 1st/Late 2020 2nd for Lindsay

I paid what I had to pay, but I’ve seen him go for less, too.

I also traded him away, as he was my RB4 in one league, and I needed a WR:

Lindsay/40% BB$ for Robert Woods

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27 minutes ago, foxco said:

Price check on Phillip Lindsey, what's his value in rookie picks? 

I always answer these questions by ranking them against rookies at his position. In his case he'd be RB5 and that puts him at back end of round one at best.

I really liked him a lot earlier this off-season, even acquired him,  but does no one any good to ignore the  negative noise for his value that has cropped up in last few weeks.

When I acquired him earlier this off-season he was part of package I got for Gurley. Dealt him away later for Kareem Hunt. Before I dealt him for Hunt I made someone a trade offer of Julio and Lindsay for Bell, 1.10 and 2.7. My thinking was Bell=Julio but I was thinning his RB's out so would give him Lindsay for the picks. I put a note in the trade that if he preferred I'd do Bell for Julio straight up and that is in fact what he preferred. That was a few weeks ago and it was fairly recently, I think last week that I dealt him for Hunt.

 

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