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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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13 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I agree that RBs have little value on the market, that teams would rather go cheap. But that drives the price down, so teams can sign veteran starting RBs for cheap. TJ Yeldon and CJ Anderson and Carlos Hyde and Latavius Murray (etc.) aren't stuck in committees because they cost too much. They're stuck in committees because teams don't think they're starting caliber backs anymore (if ever). 

You can't honestly tell me that GMs all decided that CJA at 27 had lost a step from 26. Same for Latavius (although it is debatable if he should've been starting in Oakland). These guys were starting at age 26 and backups at 27. I think CJA was PFF's RB5 in 2017. Sure, PFF can be a little wacky, but he had a nice season considering the offense he was stuck in. And I think he proved he still had some juice when he averaged 5.2 ypc over 113 carries in 2018 including the playoffs (sure, some was the offense, but Gurley never cracked 5 ypc and Goff's production was slipping in the second half of the season). I don't fully comprehend why these guys strike out in free agency. I'm guessing that most GMs see guys like CJA as barely above average starters and think they can catch lightning in a bottle with a rookie which would be much cheaper. I'm just using CJA as an example since he had nice 2018 performance whereas the other examples were less impressive (Hyde 3.3 ypc, Murray 4.1 ypc, Yeldon 4.0 ypc). 

I've been attempting to buy Carson in several leagues, so I like him, but I don't feel confident that he won't fall into the same category as those other guys. I think if we're being realistic, he would be doing well to end up in a RBBC like (2019) Dion Lewis or Mark Ingram (although obviously in more of an Ingram type role than Lewis type role). The odds of guys like him pulling a Lamar Miller are just pretty low.

Hell, I'll be interested to see what kind of interest Melvin Gordon generates next year. I'm not convinced he's any better than Ingram. 

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I’m not sure I’m following your argument.

Are the CJ Andersons of the world in committees because they are too cheap or too expensive?

You do realize that Denver extended Anderson - matching another offer - before cutting him and eating dead cap space to get out of his contract?

He then signed for 1.75M. Both Denver and Miami were willing to pay him 4M in 2016 and his best offer was 1.75M in 2018. So yeah, GMs either decided that he lost a step, or saw that he didn’t have the potential that they thought he might, once he got a full workload.

If teams wanted a cheap option at RB, Anderson was that. That’s how markets work, right? If the league is passing on vets for cheaper alternatives, vets then become cheap options themselves.

Edit: @FF Ninja

Edited by Concept Coop

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4 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I’m not sure I’m following your argument.

Are the CJ Andersons of the world in committees because they are too cheap or too expensive?

You do realize that Denver extended Anderson - matching another offer - before cutting him and eating dead cap space to get out of his contract?

He then signed for 1.75M. Both Denver and Miami were willing to pay him 4M in 2016 and his best offer was 1.75M in 2018. So yeah, GMs either decided that he lost a step, or saw that he didn’t have the potential that they thought he might, once he got a full workload.

If teams wanted a cheap option at RB, Anderson was that. That’s how markets work, right? If the league is passing on vets for cheaper alternatives, vets then become cheap options themselves.

Edit: @FF Ninja

My point was that at age 26 he was coming off a strong season and couldn't get a starting gig. Same could easily happen to Carson. Especially if Penny turns it into a committee by the end of Carson's rookie contract. He'll be 25 to start this season and 26 to start his final season, so his next contract will be for his age 27 season. I think Lindsay will be in a similar boat (27 year old FA with looming RBBC). 

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

My point was that at age 26 he was coming off a strong season and couldn't get a starting gig. Same could easily happen to Carson. Especially if Penny turns it into a committee by the end of Carson's rookie contract. He'll be 25 to start this season and 26 to start his final season, so his next contract will be for his age 27 season. I think Lindsay will be in a similar boat (27 year old FA with looming RBBC). 

If teams see Carson as worthy of being a starter, he’ll be a starter. Teams didn’t think Anderson was. Unless you have another explanation for him being more valuable in 2016 than 2018? His “strong” season obviously didn’t win teams over.

Of course the same thing could happen to Carson, but it won’t be because his contract happens to expire in 2020.

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

If teams see Carson as worthy of being a starter, he’ll be a starter. Teams didn’t think Anderson was. Unless you have another explanation for him being more valuable in 2016 than 2018? His “strong” season obviously didn’t win teams over.

Of course the same thing could happen to Carson, but it won’t be because his contract happens to expire in 2020.

It seems playing like a starter at age 26 doesn't guarantee you a starting gig in free agency at age 27. So from a dynasty perspective, while I like Carson, I'm only expecting 2 more years of fantasy production from him. Same for Lindsay. I think the Seattle system has been beneficial to Carson, but Penny will be making $3.5M in 2021. I'll be surprised if they bring Carson back at that point, so will he find similar success in a new system? Risky, IMO.

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51 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It seems playing like a starter at age 26 doesn't guarantee you a starting gig in free agency at age 27. So from a dynasty perspective, while I like Carson, I'm only expecting 2 more years of fantasy production from him. Same for Lindsay. I think the Seattle system has been beneficial to Carson, but Penny will be making $3.5M in 2021. I'll be surprised if they bring Carson back at that point, so will he find similar success in a new system? Risky, IMO.

Using your own example, starting at 26 doesn’t guarantee most RBs anything, whether they’re under contract or not. I know you like Anderson and PFF loved him that season, for whatever reason, but the league didn’t. They thought he might be a quality starter, paid him accordingly, didn’t like what they saw, and moved on.

I agree that we shouldn’t count on backs like Carson having value 2+ years out. No disagreement there. My point of contention is the suggestion that there are backs that teams value as quality starters who have been relegated to committees or depth because - again, I’m not sure I’m seeing a consistent argument - they cost too much or are too cheap or something. If teams thought CJ Anderson was a quality starter, he’d have a starting job. 

Pivoting from Anderson a bit: Oakland never saw Murray as a long-term solution. He showed enough promise to warrant a shot and wasn’t good enough. Minny never signed him to be their long-term solution either. These types aren’t safe whether they’re under contract or not.

We’re probably spending too much time on something that isn’t particularly interesting. I just wanted to make sure I was clear. I agree with the notion that Carson is a short-term asset, until he proves otherwise, and that most in his position don’t last. 

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16 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Using your own example, starting at 26 doesn’t guarantee most RBs anything, whether they’re under contract or not. I know you like Anderson and PFF loved him that season, for whatever reason, but the league didn’t. They thought he might be a quality starter, paid him accordingly, didn’t like what they saw, and moved on.

I agree that we shouldn’t count on backs like Carson having value 2+ years out. No disagreement there. My point of contention is the suggestion that there are backs that teams value as quality starters who have been relegated to committees or depth because - again, I’m not sure I’m seeing a consistent argument - they cost too much or are too cheap or something. If teams thought CJ Anderson was a quality starter, he’d have a starting job. 

Pivoting from Anderson a bit: Oakland never saw Murray as a long-term solution. He showed enough promise to warrant a shot and wasn’t good enough. Minny never signed him to be their long-term solution either. These types aren’t safe whether they’re under contract or not.

We’re probably spending too much time on something that isn’t particularly interesting. I just wanted to make sure I was clear. I agree with the notion that Carson is a short-term asset, until he proves otherwise, and that most in his position don’t last. 

I like the CJA example because he had a nice 2017, then when he got his shot in 2018, he showed he was still more than capable of starting and carrying the load, but couldn't get a starting contract that year or the next year.

Which was really my point. My point isn't that there are backs that teams value as quality starters that they choose not to pay... I'm saying there are backs that ARE quality starters that get relegated to backup roles around 27 for reasons I don't understand. I mean, why was Indy rolling out Jordan Wilkins week 1 when CJA could've been had so cheaply? Why did Baltimore draft Ray Rice and relegate Willis McGahee to the bench at age 27? Why is Buffalo overpaying for McCoy?

Don't get me wrong - I'm not advocating for teams paying a lot at RB. I am with Gase in that I think the Bell contract will not be worth it. It just confuses me when McCoy is getting paid a lot for his bad season and some decent talent is not seeing the field or when guys like Jordan Wilkins, Josh Adams, and Alfred Blue are playing serious snaps. :confused:

As for Murray, I agree he was a marginal at best starter. He wasn't a great example.

Given your last line, I think we're pretty much in agreement. I was originally agreeing with thriftyrocker that Sanders' primary benefit over Carson right now is that he's got 4 years left on his rookie contract and Carson only has 2. I'll be surprised if free agency is kind to either of them. 

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On 5/23/2019 at 8:53 AM, tangfoot said:

Six months, and my point is not that one has had better production recently.  It's that they are both at the precipice of falling off the value cliff entirely. 

LOL. People have been saying the same thing about Fitz for 6 years. Julio will be fantasy relevant for 3 years minimum.

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7 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

LOL. People have been saying the same thing about Fitz for 6 years. Julio will be fantasy relevant for 3 years minimum.

I’ll certainly take him in redrafts, Fitz too

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8 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

LOL. People have been saying the same thing about Fitz for 6 years. Julio will be fantasy relevant for 3 years minimum.

I don’t see Julio moving inside and winning underneath, the way Fitz has. Julio might have 3 years, but once he really slows down, he’s probably done.

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21 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Which was really my point. My point isn't that there are backs that teams value as quality starters that they choose not to pay... I'm saying there are backs that ARE quality starters that get relegated to backup roles around 27 for reasons I don't understand. I mean, why was Indy rolling out Jordan Wilkins week 1 when CJA could've been had so cheaply?  

I think there are multiple factors. 

I think teams have to account for the shelf life of RBs. They want young guys in place when the vets start to slow down.

I also think they prefer potential to baseline options. Average RBs don’t have a big impact on the game, so it makes sense to roll the dice on upside. Jordan Wilkins was more valuable because he came with upside, whereas the league felt like they knew what Anderson was. 

I don’t think we disagree on how to treat guys like Carson, just the reasoning. I don’t see quality starters who aren’t starting because they are 27 YO or because they hit FA. Anderson is that to you, but I don’t see him in that light and I don’t think the league does either. 

I disagree with you and Thrifty, in that I think it’s the difference in age that separates them, not contract length. If the Eagles don’t think Sanders is a quality starter in 2 years, he’s not going to be starting. If the Seahawks don’t see Carson as a quality starter in 2 years, at least there’s hope someone else does. History says probably not, but maybe (Miller, McKinnon).

Edited by Concept Coop

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

I disagree with you and Thrifty, in that I think it’s the difference in age that separates them, not contract length. If the Eagles don’t think Sanders is a quality starter in 2 years, he’s not going to be starting. If the Seahawks don’t see Carson as a quality starter in 2 years, at least there’s hope someone else does. History says probably not, but maybe (Miller, McKinnon).

If there was a RB who was a 24 yo rookie taken in the 3rd round, I think he would be given more of a chance to start than an equivalent player as a FA who entered the league at 21. Because he is cheap. The veteran will be given a short term contract where he can be cut after year 1 without much concern. In most cases. If you look at the top RB contracts there aren't many. Some teams like the Eagles trade for proven starters with < 2 years left because it is cheaper. Young players are given mulligans that players on their 2nd contract aren't afforded.

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Anyone see any Mike Evans trades recently?  

PPR offer of Evans and Watkins for 1.2 and Fournette.  

Not the highest on Watkins but I’m sure I could use him in a future deal.  

What are the values of 1.2 right now and Evans, Fournette.  

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12 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Anyone see any Mike Evans trades recently?  

PPR offer of Evans and Watkins for 1.2 and Fournette.  

Not the highest on Watkins but I’m sure I could use him in a future deal.  

What are the values of 1.2 right now and Evans, Fournette.  

I wouldn't do Evans for Fournette and 1.2. Let alone throw Watkins in. Evans is probably a 1st round startup caliber player. 

Maybe I'm high on Evans, but I'd want at a ton more than that. Like multiple high 1st rounders. 

Evans>>>Fournette>1.2>>Watkins

I'd personally value Watkins at 1.5, but I think there is a big difference between 1.2 and 1.5.

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9 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I wouldn't do Evans for Fournette and 1.2. Let alone throw Watkins in. Evans is probably a 1st round startup caliber player. 

Maybe I'm high on Evans, but I'd want at a ton more than that. Like multiple high 1st rounders. 

Evans>>>Fournette>1.2>>Watkins

I'd personally value Watkins at 1.5, but I think there is a big difference between 1.2 and 1.5.

I’d be getting Evans.  I like him. Just hard to value the 1.2 and Fournette.  

Evans will be 26 in August, just curious if Howard and Godwin stop stealing targets.  

 

Edited by Gottabesweet

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34 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Anyone see any Mike Evans trades recently?  

PPR offer of Evans and Watkins for 1.2 and Fournette.  

Not the highest on Watkins but I’m sure I could use him in a future deal.  

What are the values of 1.2 right now and Evans, Fournette.  

I would probably take Evans straight up over 1.2/Fournette.  

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17 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

If there was a RB who was a 24 yo rookie taken in the 3rd round, I think he would be given more of a chance to start than an equivalent player as a FA who entered the league at 21. Because he is cheap. The veteran will be given a short term contract where he can be cut after year 1 without much concern. In most cases. If you look at the top RB contracts there aren't many. Some teams like the Eagles trade for proven starters with < 2 years left because it is cheaper. Young players are given mulligans that players on their 2nd contract aren't afforded.

Sure, rookie contracts are cheap and guarantee heavy, so there is less incentive to terminate them early. If that was your point, I don’t disagree. But if he’s good enough to warrant an extension, we’re really talking 4+ years down the road, as the guaranteed money will be prohibitive early in the contract. This even assuming he only gets Mark Ingram money, which might not even be enough to extend him. He’s not passing up FA for a 1 year deal with a couple extra vanity years on it. 

I do see your point, but don’t put the weight in it that you do. Ultimately, Carson will be good enough to start 3 years from now or he won’t. Same goes for Sanders, his teammate Howard being an example.  

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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I would probably take Evans straight up over 1.2/Fournette.  

I’d take Fournette/Jacobs over Evans, but might prefer Evans to Fournette/Harry.

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Gross. He accepted Evans and 3.1 for Mack, Marvin Jones and 1.5

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24 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

I’d be getting Evans.  I like him. Just hard to value the 1.2 and Fournette.  

Evans will be 26 in August, just curious if Howard and Godwin stop stealing targets.  

 

If I'm the one getting Evans I snapcall if it's actually on the table. I am sour on Fournette though I do like the 1.02. But Evans on his own without Watkins would be a snapcall.

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35 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I wouldn't do Evans for Fournette and 1.2. Let alone throw Watkins in. Evans is probably a 1st round startup caliber player. 

Maybe I'm high on Evans, but I'd want at a ton more than that. Like multiple high 1st rounders. 

Evans>>>Fournette>1.2>>Watkins

I'd personally value Watkins at 1.5, but I think there is a big difference between 1.2 and 1.5.

I just completed two startups and I took him at 13 overall and 18 overall.  I play in 12 team PPR so he is just outside 1st round startup in those leagues.

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5 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Gross. He accepted Evans and 3.1 for Mack, Marvin Jones and 1.5

Yeah. He was selling short on Evans. Should have accepted. 

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3 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I think there are multiple factors. 

I think teams have to account for the shelf life of RBs. They want young guys in place when the vets start to slow down.

I also think they prefer potential to baseline options. Average RBs don’t have a big impact on the game, so it makes sense to roll the dice on upside. Jordan Wilkins was more valuable because he came with upside, whereas the league felt like they knew what Anderson was. 

I don’t think we disagree on how to treat guys like Carson, just the reasoning. I don’t see quality starters who aren’t starting because they are 27 YO or because they hit FA. Anderson is that to you, but I don’t see him in that light and I don’t think the league does either. 

I disagree with you and Thrifty, in that I think it’s the difference in age that separates them, not contract length. If the Eagles don’t think Sanders is a quality starter in 2 years, he’s not going to be starting. If the Seahawks don’t see Carson as a quality starter in 2 years, at least there’s hope someone else does. History says probably not, but maybe (Miller, McKinnon).

I don't think you could argue that Anderson hasn't been a quality starter when he's (1) been healthy and (2) gotten the opportunity. But the dude is starting to look like Tolbert...

If Sanders is putting up workman-like starting stats (CJA-ish), the Eagles will probably roll with him until his contract expires. I think if he's not a bust, he's got a minimum of 4 years of utility in him which is 2 more than I can count on from Carson. But the odds he is a bust are probably a little higher than 50%.

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On 5/29/2019 at 9:51 AM, kutta said:

Mixon 

Chubb

DJ

Bell

Gurley

Mixon and Chubb are up top because they have less questions and are younger. The other three are a toss up really until we see how their situations play out.

I would flip Bell and DJ.

That I figure Arizona will likely work mostly out of the shotgun is a limiting factor to me for DJs rushing output. 

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47 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I don't think you could argue that Anderson hasn't been a quality starter when he's (1) been healthy and (2) gotten the opportunity. But the dude is starting to look like Tolbert...

If Sanders is putting up workman-like starting stats (CJA-ish), the Eagles will probably roll with him until his contract expires. I think if he's not a bust, he's got a minimum of 4 years of utility in him which is 2 more than I can count on from Carson. But the odds he is a bust are probably a little higher than 50%.

We're going to have to pick a different example if we're going to continue; we're just not going to agree on Anderson.

Quality starters don't get cut to save 4.5M over two years. Quality starters don't sign for 1/1.75M in the same offseason that sees Dion Lewis signed for 4/20M. Quality starters don't sign for 1/1.5M while Mike Davis gets 2/6M. Latavius Murray, who you agreed wasn't a quality starter, got 3/15M from MIN and 4/14M from NO. 

If you have other examples, I'm certainly interested. But CJ Anderson doesn't hold water for me. 

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17 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Chubb trades in PPR go down lately?

 

I'd like to buy & curious on value

I traded for him a few weeks ago, during our rookie draft. 

12 Tm PPR, 4 pt passing TDs 

Gave: DJohnson, CNewton, 1.09 (Hardman)
Got: NChubb, DBrees, 2.02 (Murray)

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I wonder if A) I could get Chubb in a deal where I send them Fournette & B) Is that a good move for me...

If the other owner is scared of Hunt, you might be able to make the swap without adding too much. I've been a Fournette fan and was late to the party on Chubb, but would need a lot to downgrade today. 

Early in the offseason I offered Fournette/Ertz for Chubb/Howard to the same owner, and it was rejected. Granted, this was before the Hunt signing. 

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47 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Any Chubb trades in PPR go down lately?

 

I'd like to buy & curious on value

Went for this years 1.06 and a 2020 first in my league.

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Just now, hispeedthinmint said:

So you would rather have Fournette in PPR dynasty?

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I like Chubb more today and would need another sizalbe part coming my way to downgrade to Fournette. I still like Fournette, so if he has a healthy and productive season, I'll likely be right back on the bandwagon. But currently I see a lot of risk there.  

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34 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

We're going to have to pick a different example if we're going to continue; we're just not going to agree on Anderson.

Quality starters don't get cut to save 4.5M over two years. Quality starters don't sign for 1/1.75M in the same offseason that sees Dion Lewis signed for 4/20M. Quality starters don't sign for 1/1.5M while Mike Davis gets 2/6M. Latavius Murray, who you agreed wasn't a quality starter, got 3/15M from MIN and 4/14M from NO. 

If you have other examples, I'm certainly interested. But CJ Anderson doesn't hold water for me. 

I'm not going to say "the numbers don't lie" because sometimes they do, but by most statistical accounts he was a quality starter in 2017 and he sure looked good running for the Rams, so all this hemming and hawing about his contracts means nothing. I didn't say anything about contracts. I said he performs when he plays.

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15 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I don’t see Julio moving inside and winning underneath, the way Fitz has. Julio might have 3 years, but once he really slows down, he’s probably done.

I will take 3 good years from Julio. Thank you. 

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22 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I don’t see Julio moving inside and winning underneath, the way Fitz has. Julio might have 3 years, but once he really slows down, he’s probably done.

Feels a bit like a false narrative. There are 3rd/4th year WR who are equivalent physically to a "slowed down" Julio Jones, without his skill or drive, and they are productive enough to be startable. This is not the case of Dez Bryant where the player won't do the small stuff. There are routes Julio has excelled at that go beyond shear physical dominance. Calvin Johnson was slowing down in his last year but he could still accumulate stats. If Julio drops off the face of the planet, it will be due to some catastrophic injury he's too old to come back from, not age. Certainly that's possible given he has had foot issues since college, but injury is an issue for most players' value. I would still probably buy if he gets hurt (except achilles), because a modest prospect for a chance at a comeback season is still a good bet.

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1 minute ago, thriftyrocker said:

Feels a bit like a false narrative. There are 3rd/4th year WR who are equivalent physically to a "slowed down" Julio Jones, without his skill or drive, and they are productive enough to be startable. This is not the case of Dez Bryant where the player won't do the small stuff. There are routes Julio has excelled at that go beyond shear physical dominance. Calvin Johnson was slowing down in his last year but he could still accumulate stats. If Julio drops off the face of the planet, it will be due to some catastrophic injury he's too old to come back from, not age. Certainly that's possible given he has had foot issues since college, but injury is an issue for most players' value. I would still probably buy if he gets hurt (except achilles), because a modest prospect for a chance at a comeback season is still a good bet.

TO put up 1,000 at 35. Julio is that kind of physical freak, so maybe he can, too. I just don’t see him doing it the way Larry has. That’s all.

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Where do people put AB?  I'm trying to acquire in 1 league that seems pretty straight forward of something like DK Metcalf + another piece and those conversations have gotten me nowhere.  I can't imagine his price is that high anymore.  New team, over 30 and all.  

Guess I'm just frustrated that this should have been done already for a team that isn't competitive.  But there was never a counter so I feel like I'm way off somehow.  

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3 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Where do people put AB?  I'm trying to acquire in 1 league that seems pretty straight forward of something like DK Metcalf + another piece and those conversations have gotten me nowhere.  I can't imagine his price is that high anymore.  New team, over 30 and all.  

Guess I'm just frustrated that this should have been done already for a team that isn't competitive.  But there was never a counter so I feel like I'm way off somehow.  

Metcalf value is living off being the Combine hero. Every week we get away from that we get a little lower in actual production value. High hopes, but no one wants to put him in their week 1 line-up.

If you think that AB going to a new team is a big detractor, you have to knock Metcalf for going to a new team as well. Metcalf has to learn to run routes and is trying to become the #2 or #3 WR option on a run first team.

AB has been the top WR for the last 5 years. Age 30 is more like the RB dropoff point. 33 or so for WRs, later for those that are technical in abilities. Yes, the Raiders have issues. No denying that.

DK Metcalf would be the "another Piece" in a trade for AB. 2020 first + a youngish fantasy #2 RB + Metcalf may get it done.

Rookie fever is fading... it's time to look at who you actually want to put in your line-up. AB produces and still makes the roster look shiny.

You opinion may vary.

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5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Where do people put AB?  I'm trying to acquire in 1 league that seems pretty straight forward of something like DK Metcalf + another piece and those conversations have gotten me nowhere.  I can't imagine his price is that high anymore.  New team, over 30 and all.  

Guess I'm just frustrated that this should have been done already for a team that isn't competitive.  But there was never a counter so I feel like I'm way off somehow.  

I'm a huge Metcalf fan, and think there is a good chance he's the best WR from this draft class, and even I would say that he's worth nowhere near Brown. In my opinion, Brown is still a top-20 dynasty asset. He could see close to 200 targets in Oakland, including tons of garbage time, and almost certainly has a chip on his shoulder.

Metcalf, a 2020 1st, and a decent player would be my price. 

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34 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I'm a huge Metcalf fan, and think there is a good chance he's the best WR from this draft class, and even I would say that he's worth nowhere near Brown. In my opinion, Brown is still a top-20 dynasty asset. He could see close to 200 targets in Oakland, including tons of garbage time, and almost certainly has a chip on his shoulder. 

Metcalf, a 2020 1st, and a decent player would be my price. 

I dunno about top 20, I just peeked at DLF ADP and would put him 30, but agree with the rest.  Gruden has absolutely fed his WR1 so AB could end up with over 150 targets again and post top 5 numbers.  More risk with the quality of QB but plenty of upside should things click.

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I don't own Brown anymore. I only ever had one share and sold him last year before the season. If I had him now I would likely hold until his legs fall off because even if he is batty he has a good chance of staying an elite WR1 for I would guess 3 more years. Many would take the under and I won't fault them for that. But to give now I would want a much higher return than anyone is going to give now. So probably holding forever. The thing would be if he shows strong at the beginning of the season then his value might bounce back up again. I love Metcalf in Seattle and think he could be huge. But right now he is too much of a question mark. Add a seemingly low 2020 1st and a third piece that I can put in my lineup right now and we could begin a conversation.

All that said I am not targeting Brown and am not trying to acquire him. I assume most owners are still bullish on him.

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I don't see a top5 WR anymore.  He was WR5 last year in FFPC, because of 2 things I'd say, 168 targets and 15 TD's.  Do people honestly believe he'll reach those numbers in Oakland?  Maybe the targets, but the quality of them won't be as good.  Nor does he have JuJu opposite him to help ease some coverage. 

There were only 2 other WR's with higher target total than AB last year (Davante 169, Julio 170).  He's still really good and can probably keep his pace for another couple years but he isn't nearly worth future picks plus young stud (if you believe in Metcalf) and another piece on top to me.  His days as a top5 WR are over.  I just can't see myself ever paying that type of price.  Kind of falls into what @barackdhouse was saying.  He might die on the fantasy team he's already on.  

In my league he's on a team that is middle of the road at best so I figured I could snag him away.  Maybe if Metcalf starts popping off but I'd have to wait 2 months for that to even be possible.  I'm very age biased in my dynasty rankings so I guess that plays into how I'm lower on AB than most.  

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2 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I don't own Brown anymore. I only ever had one share and sold him last year before the season. If I had him now I would likely hold until his legs fall off because even if he is batty he has a good chance of staying an elite WR1 for I would guess 3 more years. Many would take the under and I won't fault them for that. But to give now I would want a much higher return than anyone is going to give now. So probably holding forever. The thing would be if he shows strong at the beginning of the season then his value might bounce back up again. I love Metcalf in Seattle and think he could be huge. But right now he is too much of a question mark. Add a seemingly low 2020 1st and a third piece that I can put in my lineup right now and we could begin a conversation.

All that said I am not targeting Brown and am not trying to acquire him. I assume most owners are still bullish on him.

Agreed. I own him in only one league where I’m win now and I'm holding and will run him into the ground for as many years as he'll give me. 

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4 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

I don't own Brown anymore. I only ever had one share and sold him last year before the season. If I had him now I would likely hold until his legs fall off because even if he is batty he has a good chance of staying an elite WR1 for I would guess 3 more years. Many would take the under and I won't fault them for that. But to give now I would want a much higher return than anyone is going to give now. So probably holding forever. The thing would be if he shows strong at the beginning of the season then his value might bounce back up again. I love Metcalf in Seattle and think he could be huge. But right now he is too much of a question mark. Add a seemingly low 2020 1st and a third piece that I can put in my lineup right now and we could begin a conversation.

All that said I am not targeting Brown and am not trying to acquire him. I assume most owners are still bullish on him.

I don’t see Carr and Brown working. There’s a lot of risk to me, I could see it really going sideways.

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

I don't see a top5 WR anymore.  He was WR5 last year in FFPC, because of 2 things I'd say, 168 targets and 15 TD's.  Do people honestly believe he'll reach those numbers in Oakland?  Maybe the targets, but the quality of them won't be as good.  Nor does he have JuJu opposite him to help ease some coverage. 

There were only 2 other WR's with higher target total than AB last year (Davante 169, Julio 170).  He's still really good and can probably keep his pace for another couple years but he isn't nearly worth future picks plus young stud (if you believe in Metcalf) and another piece on top to me.  His days as a top5 WR are over.  I just can't see myself ever paying that type of price.  Kind of falls into what @barackdhouse was saying.  He might die on the fantasy team he's already on.  

In my league he's on a team that is middle of the road at best so I figured I could snag him away.  Maybe if Metcalf starts popping off but I'd have to wait 2 months for that to even be possible.  I'm very age biased in my dynasty rankings so I guess that plays into how I'm lower on AB than most.  

That is probably the biggest part of the difference in Brown's value. I tend to be much more forgiving to older players(especially non-RB's) because I'm almost never looking more than 3-4 years down the road. I've always been a very frequent trader, so its very rare a player makes it longer than that on my teams. Also because 50% of fantasy 1st round rookies don't pan out. I like Metcalf a ton, but I'm not certain he(or any WR in this class) will be a star. Really the only 2 guys I'm 100% sold on, are Murray and Hockenson, and they play devalued positions. Haskins too, but he's only going 1st round in 2-QB leagues. 

I think Brown's a HOF-talent, the best WR in Steelers history by a gigantic margin, and is still in his prime, albeit the later part, I think the 15 TD's is unlikely to happen in Oakland, but I think he could easily add another 200 yards. 110-1400-9 seems reasonable, and is basically what Michael Thomas did last year. I really think the Steelers will miss Brown more than he will miss them.

 

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Brown just went 36 overall in my SF startup, which feels about right to me.  Based on Mizelle ADP, Metcalf is worth ~half of what AB is, so it would take essentially another player at or above DK's value to get something started.

Add in the fact that the guy selling the better player in the deal wants a little juice, and you're looking at some suggestions like you saw above (DK + 2020 1st + a little sumpin').

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57 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What sort of WR would you think is more fair for me then? I was thinking maybe Gesicki, but doubt he'd go for that. Fuller is my worst WR outside of Tim Patrick.

ADP is not the best indicator of QB value because in startups people wait on QB, but in trades, it often requires getting a comparable back to avoid depth imbalance. I think Fuller is an overpay but would offer it if it helped my team (and would rather give Fuller than Gesicki tbh). I think JG's trade value is closer to ADP 100 than ADP 150. The question is really is there an acquirable QB who you like more than JG who you can get with Fuller? The answer is probably no, but worth thinking about. Goff? Prescott? Ryan? These are - by the rankings - more valuable than JG but real world value is not too different. Adding a 4th-to-2nd upgrade is usually an easy ADP consideration that can be removed if the other guys questions it.

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4 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Goff is my starter & I would need more than Fuller. I traded Goff in another 1 QB dynasty & got Keenan Allen in return last year

You sold high. And got a good deal on top of selling high.

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Goff is my starter & I would need more than Fuller. I traded Goff in another 1 QB dynasty & got Keenan Allen in return last year

That trade should not be indicative of future trades nor the value of QBs in a 1QB league. 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

lol what? That trade was done in a 1 QB league.

That just isn’t happening in most 12 team leagues. QBs don’t have much value in those. That’s a really bad trade 

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2 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Goff is my starter & I would need more than Fuller. I traded Goff in another 1 QB dynasty & got Keenan Allen in return last year

You stole Keenan Allen. Just because another owner made a bad deal, doesn't mean they all will. Personally, I'd rather have Fuller than Goff, and Fuller is miles ahead of Garoppolo.

What other QB's does that owner have?

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