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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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16 hours ago, travdogg said:

I'm on the other side here, and have Lindsay miles ahead of Samuel. Like I'd want a 1st rounder plus Samuel for Lindsay. 

I'm a huge Lindsay fan, and think Josh Jacobs is the only rookie I'd take over him.

Samuel is a late 1st rounder for me. I think he's going to be the #3 in San Fran behind Kittle and Pettis going forward.

This.

The Lindsay passes the eye test for me, he produces every time he touches the football.

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On 6/21/2019 at 8:56 PM, Johnny B. Goode said:

he just turned 23

Deebo turned 23 six months ago and is minimum 18 months older than Harry, DK, AJ Brown and so on. If Deebo doesn’t hit year 1, his value plummets cuz he’s old

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10 hours ago, Edgar said:

Deebo turned 23 six months ago and is minimum 18 months older than Harry, DK, AJ Brown and so on. If Deebo doesn’t hit year 1, his value plummets cuz he’s old

That's an extreme take. He's not a RB he's a WR. Do we consider 25 yo 3rd year pro Dede Westbrook to be old? Do we value 23 yo 3rd year pro John Ross's youth? I would only be worried about a 23 yo rookie if he broke out at age 22/23. But that's not the case with Samuel.

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10 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

That's an extreme take. He's not a RB he's a WR. Do we consider 25 yo 3rd year pro Dede Westbrook to be old? Do we value 23 yo 3rd year pro John Ross's youth? I would only be worried about a 23 yo rookie if he broke out at age 22/23. But that's not the case with Samuel.

Perhaps it’s a bit extreme, but it’s a matter of extreme upside. Take a guy like Juju, who came into the league crazy young and produced immediately. In current day, Juju has an absurd amount of value. Deebo on the other hand, who is actually ten months older than Juju, doesn’t have a hope of ever being valued as highly as Juju because he came into the league three years older. Deebo has a rock solid floor, but his upside is forever capped. 

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15 minutes ago, Edgar said:

Perhaps it’s a bit extreme, but it’s a matter of extreme upside. Take a guy like Juju, who came into the league crazy young and produced immediately. In current day, Juju has an absurd amount of value. Deebo on the other hand, who is actually ten months older than Juju, doesn’t have a hope of ever being valued as highly as Juju because he came into the league three years older. Deebo has a rock solid floor, but his upside is forever capped. 

Michael Thomas?

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5 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Michael Thomas?

Thomas is the lone exception. Still entered the league younger than Deebo, but splitting hairs at that point

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5 hours ago, Edgar said:

Deebo has a rock solid floor, but his upside is forever capped. 

Deebo's floor is pretty low. He's a late 1st/early 2nd now. He could be valued at no more than a 3rd next year if Pettis and someone else outperform him on the 9ers. His upside is capped, insofar as he's probably not Antonio Brown. If he is Antonio Brown, it doesn't matter if he breaks out at 24 or 25. Kupp is still a top 50 player despite the knee reconstruction and came into the league at an older age than Deebo. 

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7 hours ago, Edgar said:

Perhaps it’s a bit extreme, but it’s a matter of extreme upside. Take a guy like Juju, who came into the league crazy young and produced immediately. In current day, Juju has an absurd amount of value. Deebo on the other hand, who is actually ten months older than Juju, doesn’t have a hope of ever being valued as highly as Juju because he came into the league three years older. Deebo has a rock solid floor, but his upside is forever capped. 

You and others around here have taken the ageism to an extreme that I consider ridiculous.

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31 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What is Ebron's value in PPR? I recently acquired him & thinking of flipping him alone or in a package for an even bigger upgrade

theres about a page and a half in the in season trades forum debating this. 

I landed him and traded him and Barber for Royce Freeman, then Royce Freeman, Robby Anderson and a 2020 3rd for Kupp...

 

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5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

theres about a page and a half in the in season trades forum debating this. 

I landed him and traded him and Barber for Royce Freeman, then Royce Freeman, Robby Anderson and a 2020 3rd for Kupp...

 

So basically Ebron, P.Barber, R.Anderson & a 2020 3rd for C.Kupp, who I love but is coming off ACL surgery and has Cooks, Woods, Everett, Gurley etc. to compete with for targets.

Personally, I'd be on the other side of that deal

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3 hours ago, Penguin said:

So basically Ebron, P.Barber, R.Anderson & a 2020 3rd for C.Kupp, who I love but is coming off ACL surgery and has Cooks, Woods, Everett, Gurley etc. to compete with for targets.

Personally, I'd be on the other side of that deal

yeah to each their own. I already own Engram and Hockenson at te, and Robby Anderson was my wr5. Barber was my RB5. To land a wr2 for those guys, to me, was a steal. Also all 3 of them are FAs after 2019.

I'm pretty conservative when it comes to injuries and trading for those players, but it didnt stop me from targeting Kupp. He was doing just fine for targets when healthy and was wr15 in average fp/g at end of the season. Averaged in the area of Keenan Allen, Evans, Edelman. 

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With Doyle healthy again, I'm not confident Ebron can reproduce last year's results so I would be a seller on him.  I had him in 1 league and right after the season traded him and a 2020 2nd for a 2021 1st.

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General question when it comes to league setup and players value.  We know that 2QB or superflex leagues QB's jump a lot in value, same with TE premium those get vaulted pretty high as well.  What about when most of the roster is flex worthy? 

1RB 1WR 1TE and 5+ flex spots.  What value spike/dip do you see with those?  I'm joining my first one this year like that setup and the my only thought was that it prioritizes studs maybe a little more, but not exactly position specific.  

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3 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

General question when it comes to league setup and players value.  We know that 2QB or superflex leagues QB's jump a lot in value, same with TE premium those get vaulted pretty high as well.  What about when most of the roster is flex worthy? 

1RB 1WR 1TE and 5+ flex spots.  What value spike/dip do you see with those?  I'm joining my first one this year like that setup and the my only thought was that it prioritizes studs maybe a little more, but not exactly position specific.  

Are any of those flex spots available for a QB?  Also, what is the scoring?  Assuming no superflex and just regular PPR scoring, I would favor RBs and WRs, unless you manage to get multiple elite TEs.  In general, without superflex and without any special scoring rules, the flexible starting lineup doesn't really favor anyone in particular but it does allow for different strategies to be successful.  You can draft more based on your opinion of BPA rather than having to fill a positional need.

Edited by RC94

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Having lots of flex spots makes positional scarcity less of an issue and total scoring more important.

In PPR leagues it mostly helps WRs. In non-PPR it would help RBs. It probably also reduces TE value relative to RB/WR (unless it's TE premium).

It also gives you more freedom to zag when the rest of your league zigs. If the rest of your league is RB crazy then you can mainly stock up on WRs - you just need to be able to field one RB starter.

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22 hours ago, Zyphros said:

General question when it comes to league setup and players value.  We know that 2QB or superflex leagues QB's jump a lot in value, same with TE premium those get vaulted pretty high as well.  What about when most of the roster is flex worthy? 

1RB 1WR 1TE and 5+ flex spots.  What value spike/dip do you see with those?  I'm joining my first one this year like that setup and the my only thought was that it prioritizes studs maybe a little more, but not exactly position specific.  

IMO, this is where your scoring is important (PPR, bonuses at specific levels, length of TD, etc).  Obviously, pass catching RB's and slot WR value climb while in TD only league, they drop.   

I am in a 12 team 0.5 PPR / TE 1.0 PPR -->  RB's get bonus at 5 Rec & 50 yard Rec so a 3rd down RB is often a flex starter every week & most start 2 TE if they can.  

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Difficult to judge these rookies since they havent played, but would Deebo for Cohen in a ppr league be a fair deal? Seems like it does on the FBG dynasty value chart but seems some people have some pretty strong opinions one way or the other

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14 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Difficult to judge these rookies since they havent played, but would Deebo for Cohen in a ppr league be a fair deal? Seems like it does on the FBG dynasty value chart but seems some people have some pretty strong opinions one way or the other

Cohen is a guy I would just never trade for.  He's a guy you find off waivers, he's productive, but not flashy, and usually heavily undervalued by the masses so it's impossible to trade him away for something worth while.  But he's stuck in his role and the only role increase he could get is if he grows taller.  He's capped at what he is.  That said he was RB11 in FFPC leagues last year and like I mentioned he's usually heavily undervalued.  

I'd trade him away in a heartbeat for Deebo and thank my stars that they didn't ask for more on top.  

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51 minutes ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Difficult to judge these rookies since they havent played, but would Deebo for Cohen in a ppr league be a fair deal? Seems like it does on the FBG dynasty value chart but seems some people have some pretty strong opinions one way or the other

Seems fair to me. 

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How do people value Jaylen Samuels?  I imagine he's more valuable to his owners than his actual startup value.  He's going to similar guys in rookie drafts around the late 1st early 2nd variety of players right now.  So would that get it done if you owned him?  Late 1st / early 2nd?  

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11 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

How do people value Jaylen Samuels?  I imagine he's more valuable to his owners than his actual startup value.  He's going to similar guys in rookie drafts around the late 1st early 2nd variety of players right now.  So would that get it done if you owned him?  Late 1st / early 2nd?  

I would easily take that for him. 

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

How do people value Jaylen Samuels?  I imagine he's more valuable to his owners than his actual startup value.  He's going to similar guys in rookie drafts around the late 1st early 2nd variety of players right now.  So would that get it done if you owned him?  Late 1st / early 2nd?  

I find that hard to believe. Seems more like a 3rd round value to me.

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

How do people value Jaylen Samuels?  I imagine he's more valuable to his owners than his actual startup value.  He's going to similar guys in rookie drafts around the late 1st early 2nd variety of players right now.  So would that get it done if you owned him?  Late 1st / early 2nd?  

He has more value to Conner owners, but if you don't have Conner he can be had for a late 2nd or early 3rd easily. An early 2nd for Samuels plus a mid 3rd is a great trade, as it potentially gets you Snell too, hedging your investment.

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10 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

He has more value to Conner owners, but if you don't have Conner he can be had for a late 2nd or early 3rd easily. An early 2nd for Samuels plus a mid 3rd is a great trade, as it potentially gets you Snell too, hedging your investment.

I don't have Conner and no way would I give Samuels up for that. I get that it's a fair 'market' price and you're not getting more for him but why would I offload a RB who (I think) offers nice upside and could potentially break out to some extent right before that opportunity materialises? He's a hold if you have him. 

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No way would I give an early 2nd for Samuels.  I agree about the 3rd round value, but he's a lottery ticket for the current owners so it's probably hard to get him for that price.  Connor is still the starter and they drafted Snell, who has talent, so I wouldn't give more than a 3rd for him and if it doesn't work so be it.  I would rather draft Snell in the 3rd and have him as the PIT RB lottery ticket.

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On 7/1/2019 at 7:34 PM, Johnny B. Goode said:

Difficult to judge these rookies since they havent played, but would Deebo for Cohen in a ppr league be a fair deal? Seems like it does on the FBG dynasty value chart but seems some people have some pretty strong opinions one way or the other

I'd easily prefer Cohen. He's proven to be explosive in the NFL, and I don't think his role can't get a little bigger. I'm a Pettis guy though, so I don't see Deebo being any higher than the #3 target in that offense.

 

12 hours ago, Zyphros said:

How do people value Jaylen Samuels?  I imagine he's more valuable to his owners than his actual startup value.  He's going to similar guys in rookie drafts around the late 1st early 2nd variety of players right now.  So would that get it done if you owned him?  Late 1st / early 2nd?  

Late 2nd for me. I think he's pretty safe to stay ahead of Snell, but I don't see him pushing Conner either, so he's gonna need an injury to truly pay off.

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10 hours ago, RC94 said:

No way would I give an early 2nd for Samuels.  I agree about the 3rd round value, but he's a lottery ticket for the current owners so it's probably hard to get him for that price.  Connor is still the starter and they drafted Snell, who has talent, so I wouldn't give more than a 3rd for him and if it doesn't work so be it.  I would rather draft Snell in the 3rd and have him as the PIT RB lottery ticket.

That's completely fair and i probably feel the same way but i think when we're talking about his value it's only relevant what someone who wants him will give, because you'd never trade him to somebody who didn't want him. 

I do see some upside - if Conner really meant that this is a split backfield, and it ends up being close to 50/50 in fantasy points, a late 2019 first would seem like a bargain.  

But that's just the thing - it's possible that whoever you took with a late first will look like a bargain,  too. I think it's more likely that the guys going in that range increase in value than Jaylen so I'd keep the pick, and i definitely wouldn't give an early 2020 second for him.  So that feels like the high end of what I'd expect you to be able to get for him.  

If i were selling, i might hold on until October and hope he'd had a couple nice games so i could get more for him.  

 

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18 hours ago, Zyphros said:

How do people value Jaylen Samuels?  I imagine he's more valuable to his owners than his actual startup value.  He's going to similar guys in rookie drafts around the late 1st early 2nd variety of players right now.  So would that get it done if you owned him?  Late 1st / early 2nd?  

Samuels is going to take that starting job over in Pittsburgh. I'm just not sure when. I wouldn't give up a 1st for him but I have no problem trading the 2.04 or later for him. Somewhere in that range. If I owned Conner I'd give up the 2.01 most likely.

 

Snell is not a threat. 

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19 hours ago, Zyphros said:

How do people value Jaylen Samuels?  I imagine he's more valuable to his owners than his actual startup value.  He's going to similar guys in rookie drafts around the late 1st early 2nd variety of players right now.  So would that get it done if you owned him?  Late 1st / early 2nd?  

As a NC State alum, I watched all of his college games. Samuels was never a primary RB in his college career; he was a hybrid/H-back/TE. He had more receptions than rushing attempts in his college career, and his highest season average for carries per game was 6.0 in his final season.

I see zero reason to believe he will ever be a primary RB in the NFL. He might step in for a heavier workload if Conner gets hurt, but IMO it would be temporary. IMO he will always have a role that is mostly limited to being a passing down RB. (And even then, he needs to improve his pass blocking.) I am a big fan, so I would love for him to prove me wrong.

I am more in line with those supporting a value equivalent to the late 2nd, early 3rd.

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3 hours ago, Milkman said:

Samuels is going to take that starting job over in Pittsburgh. I'm just not sure when. I wouldn't give up a 1st for him but I have no problem trading the 2.04 or later for him. Somewhere in that range. If I owned Conner I'd give up the 2.01 most likely.

 

Snell is not a threat. 

If you truly believed he is going to take over the starting role in Pittsburgh why wouldn’t you give up a first for him? The starting RB in Pitts is a valuable commodity.

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3 hours ago, Milkman said:

Samuels is going to take that starting job over in Pittsburgh. I'm just not sure when. I wouldn't give up a 1st for him but I have no problem trading the 2.04 or later for him. Somewhere in that range. If I owned Conner I'd give up the 2.01 most likely.

 

Snell is not a threat. 

I agree Snell isn't a threat, and a lot of his owners believe he's in a 60/40 timeshare this season.  The threat is if Conner was just a flash in the pan, and they don't think Samuels can handle a big workload, they could draft a RB next year (although I highly doubt it would be 3rd round or earlier).  

That's the rub that I always see a problem in paying high prices for guys who "could" breakout.  Unless the path is super clear to breakout territory, there's always a threat to be replaced even if they pan out.  Marlon Mack being a good example this year.  

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19 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If you truly believed he is going to take over the starting role in Pittsburgh why wouldn’t you give up a first for him? The starting RB in Pitts is a valuable commodity.

Because I don't pay what I value players at. I target undervalued players and buy at current rates. Then I get the added value when they pop. 

Edited by Milkman

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14 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I agree Snell isn't a threat, and a lot of his owners believe he's in a 60/40 timeshare this season.  The threat is if Conner was just a flash in the pan, and they don't think Samuels can handle a big workload, they could draft a RB next year (although I highly doubt it would be 3rd round or earlier).  

That's the rub that I always see a problem in paying high prices for guys who "could" breakout.  Unless the path is super clear to breakout territory, there's always a threat to be replaced even if they pan out.  Marlon Mack being a good example this year.  

Sure but if you wait until they break out you don't get any value. You have to make calls and go for it sometimes. Not saying Samuels is a slam dunk but he's about as good as it gets at RB lottery tickets this year. 

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28 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Because I don't pay what I value players at. I target undervalued players and buy at current rates. Then I get the added value when they pop. 

But if Samuels is going to be the starting RB of the Steelers, at his age, a single first round pick is buying at an undervalued price.

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This is not me asking for advice but rather looking for thoughts, specifically on the value of some WRs and a couple RBs.

I turned down an offer of J Howard and OBJ for my Juju and Aaron Jones. The guy was a little taken aback that I turned it down. He has vocally talked #### about OBJ's attitude and how much Mayfield and him suck (a couple months back) but now is actively shopping OBJ, talking about how he is going to be the WR1 this year. I think he may be right but I know he is full of it.

Anyway, I have Juju, Evans, Julio and Adams and am not sure I want to add any piece to any to the 4 of those in order to secure OBJ. If I even want or need to get him. I *do* think he could hit the stratosphere this year, though. He isn't interested in Julio and I don't want to move any of these WRs but am leaning toward Evans if I had a gun to my head. Evans is also on my list of guys that could blow up this year.

I have Jones, D Williams, Mack and Ingram that I could potentially add but am wondering on the value of OBJ against my 4 WRs. The more I think about it Juju is probably the one with the most question marks, but he is the dynasty WR1 IMO. 

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

But if Samuels is going to be the starting RB of the Steelers, at his age, a single first round pick is buying at an undervalued price.

Not if you can get him for a 2nd. Dynasty is about maximizing value where other owners don't see it. I do think Samuels is going to push Conner off the field. I don't however know when it will happen. Could be week 8.......Could be next year........

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25 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

This is not me asking for advice but rather looking for thoughts, specifically on the value of some WRs and a couple RBs.

I turned down an offer of J Howard and OBJ for my Juju and Aaron Jones. The guy was a little taken aback that I turned it down. He has vocally talked #### about OBJ's attitude and how much Mayfield and him suck (a couple months back) but now is actively shopping OBJ, talking about how he is going to be the WR1 this year. I think he may be right but I know he is full of it.

Anyway, I have Juju, Evans, Julio and Adams and am not sure I want to add any piece to any to the 4 of those in order to secure OBJ. If I even want or need to get him. I *do* think he could hit the stratosphere this year, though. He isn't interested in Julio and I don't want to move any of these WRs but am leaning toward Evans if I had a gun to my head. Evans is also on my list of guys that could blow up this year.

I have Jones, D Williams, Mack and Ingram that I could potentially add but am wondering on the value of OBJ against my 4 WRs. The more I think about it Juju is probably the one with the most question marks, but he is the dynasty WR1 IMO. 

I wouldn't bother with Beckham in your case.  He's too expensive and you don't need him with your WRs.  Beckham in CLE is no sure thing to be as good as he was in NY.  They have a lot of mouths to feed and your top 4 WRs are all capable of putting up similar points to him.  His offer was really bad IMO so if you have to give up one of your elite WRs and one of your starting RBs for him, he isn't worth it.

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33 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

This is not me asking for advice but rather looking for thoughts, specifically on the value of some WRs and a couple RBs.

I turned down an offer of J Howard and OBJ for my Juju and Aaron Jones. The guy was a little taken aback that I turned it down. He has vocally talked #### about OBJ's attitude and how much Mayfield and him suck (a couple months back) but now is actively shopping OBJ, talking about how he is going to be the WR1 this year. I think he may be right but I know he is full of it.

Anyway, I have Juju, Evans, Julio and Adams and am not sure I want to add any piece to any to the 4 of those in order to secure OBJ. If I even want or need to get him. I *do* think he could hit the stratosphere this year, though. He isn't interested in Julio and I don't want to move any of these WRs but am leaning toward Evans if I had a gun to my head. Evans is also on my list of guys that could blow up this year.

I have Jones, D Williams, Mack and Ingram that I could potentially add but am wondering on the value of OBJ against my 4 WRs. The more I think about it Juju is probably the one with the most question marks, but he is the dynasty WR1 IMO. 

I would have took that deal but I have ODB>Juju and OJ Howard > Jones

 

Jones is nothing. Howard is the best TE in the league stuck in a terrible spot. 

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2 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I would have took that deal but I have ODB>Juju and OJ Howard > Jones

 

Jones is nothing. Howard is the best TE in the league stuck in a terrible spot. 

Pretty sure he was talking about Jordan Howard, and even if you don't like Aaron Jones, he has a lot more trade value than Howard.  However, we also disagree about Beckham since I have Juju > Beckham.

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I would have took that deal but I have ODB>Juju and OJ Howard > Jones

 

Jones is nothing. Howard is the best TE in the league stuck in a terrible spot. 

Jordan not OJ. 

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1 minute ago, RC94 said:

Pretty sure he was talking about Jordan Howard, and even if you don't like Aaron Jones, he has a lot more trade value than Howard.  However, we also disagree about Beckham since I have Juju > Beckham.

Oh my bad. That changes things quite a bit. I wouldn't bother with a deal like that. OBD and Juju to close. 

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16 minutes ago, RC94 said:

I wouldn't bother with Beckham in your case.  He's too expensive and you don't need him with your WRs.  Beckham in CLE is no sure thing to be as good as he was in NY.  They have a lot of mouths to feed and your top 4 WRs are all capable of putting up similar points to him.  His offer was really bad IMO so if you have to give up one of your elite WRs and one of your starting RBs for him, he isn't worth it.

Yeah those are my thoughts too. Although I like OBJ in Cleveland quite a bit more than NY. But I have all 5 of these guys as roughly equal. A little less for Julio and Evans perhaps. 

BTW if it was OJ that would still not quite put me over the top on the deal but it would be much closer. I like Aaron Jones and can't see moving a starting RB to make what is probably a lateral move with the WRs. 

I have just always coveted OBJ and have never had him in dynasty. I think he might kill it this year. Then again, and I know this will sound crazy, but the Browns might be playing from ahead a bit this year.

Edited by barackdhouse

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7 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Jordan not OJ. 

What's the rest of his roster look like?

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40 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Not if you can get him for a 2nd. Dynasty is about maximizing value where other owners don't see it. I do think Samuels is going to push Conner off the field. I don't however know when it will happen. Could be week 8.......Could be next year........

Each dynasty league is a closed market, and if you wanted Samuels you are limited to the price tag dictated by the team that owns him. That’s not to say you should pay whatever is being asked, but I found it curious that on one hand you seemed convinced Samuels will be the starting RB in Pittsburgh yet you also said you wouldn’t pay a first for him. Of course you’d rather pay a second if you could - but a first still seems to be undervalued for the 22 year old starting RB for the Steelers. 

Anyway no need to beat this to death - just seemed incongruous.

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2 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Yeah those are my thoughts too. Although I like OBJ in Cleveland quite a bit more than NY. But I have all 5 of these guys as roughly equal. A little less for Julio and Evans perhaps. 

BTW if it was OJ that would still not quite put me over the top on the deal but it would be much closer. I like Aaron Jones and can't see moving a starting RB to make what is probably a lateral move with the WRs. 

I have just always coveted OBJ and have never had him in dynasty. I think he might kill it this year. Then again, and I know this will sound crazy, but the Browns might be playing from ahead a bit this yeat. 

Yeah you want on the Mayfield/OBJ train if you can. Juju going to see coverage he's never seen before. Lots of attention. 

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2 minutes ago, Milkman said:

What's the rest of his roster look like?

He and I are both stacked and have won the last 3 ships. He won the two years prior to last, where I won. But he has Gurley, Kamara, Guice, OBJ, Nuk, Edelman and Kelce. Wilson at QB. He has recently moved A Brown, Bell and lost Gronk though he is still rostered. Personally I think he was stronger a couple years ago. Lots of studs that "all of a sudden" lost their value or appeal. Gurley, Bell, Brown, Gronk, OBJ(in his mind despite the line he is trying to sell). He is notoriously stingy on trades and it has served him well. 

Not trying to get into AC territory here but I do find it interesting that this guy wants to move someone he is supposedly so high on (he isn't). I think he mostly wants to profit with a RB move. Which I'm not having. 

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