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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I respect that. I see special and imo Murray has to much arm talent to scheme him. He's not only a running QB. He's got an A level arm. He's accurate and after seeing that video of him running with Isabella he also has low 4.3 speed. He's like the ultimate weapon. 

He is almost perfect. I agree. I was hoping to get him at 2.1 but he went 1.4 (1qb), which I think is a mistake considering that guys team but hes tanking (and good news for me, I own his 1st).

 

I hope hes as good as you think he is. I have Isabella (2.1)

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

He is almost perfect. I agree. I was hoping to get him at 2.1 but he went 1.4 (1qb), which I think is a mistake considering that guys team but hes tanking (and good news for me, I own his 1st).

 

I hope hes as good as you think he is. I have Isabella (2.1)

I would take him at 1.04 but everybody thinks I'm crazy. Lol.......now we wait and see how he does. 

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14 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I respect that. I see special and imo Murray has to much arm talent to scheme him. He's not only a running QB. He's got an A level arm. He's accurate and after seeing that video of him running with Isabella he also has low 4.3 speed. He's like the ultimate weapon. 

I feel like we hear that about every running QB that comes out now though.  And ultimately if they really are that good as a passer they end up running a lot less (Wilson) or they end up running so much their passing takes a big step back (Cam, RG3).

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Just now, FreeBaGeL said:

I feel like we hear that about every running QB that comes out now though.  And ultimately if they really are that good as a passer they end up running a lot less (Wilson) or they end up running so much their passing takes a big step back (Cam, RG3).

He has better arm talent than Cam and he has better pocket awareness than RG3. He's also significantly faster than RG3 which is insane. 

Wilson is a decent comp arm talent wise but he's twice the runner Wilson is. We've never seen anything like him really. 

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18 minutes ago, Milkman said:

He has better arm talent than Cam and he has better pocket awareness than RG3. He's also significantly faster than RG3 which is insane. 

Wilson is a decent comp arm talent wise but he's twice the runner Wilson is. We've never seen anything like him really. 

I think there's a bit of hindsight there personally.  RG3's passing stats were on par his last year in college with Murray's (granted in a stat friendly system in Baylor, but it's not like OU isn't a QB friendly offense).  And if you'll recall RG3 was actually a mid-1st round rookie pick even in 1qb leagues (whereas Murray is an early 2nd) because, like I'm hearing here, he was a combination of passing and running the likes of which has never existed before.

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14 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think there's a bit of hindsight there personally.  RG3's passing stats were on par his last year in college with Murray's (granted in a stat friendly system in Baylor, but it's not like OU isn't a QB friendly offense).  And if you'll recall RG3 was actually a mid-1st round rookie pick even in 1qb leagues (whereas Murray is an early 2nd) because, like I'm hearing here, he was a combination of passing and running the likes of which has never existed before.

Yeah I was high on RG3 too. If Murray reacts in the pocket or reads the field poorly like RG3 then he'll bust. I get the apprehension and doubt many posters have in here. I love the fit with Kliff Kingsbury and I high on him. All that's left is to see how he performs. I'm excited!

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16 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah I was high on RG3 too. If Murray reacts in the pocket or reads the field poorly like RG3 then he'll bust. I get the apprehension and doubt many posters have in here. I love the fit with Kliff Kingsbury and I high on him. All that's left is to see how he performs. I'm excited!

It just seems kind of interesting to me that we've seen guys come out and be elite runners and elite passers for a few years but then always regress in one area or the other.  Like once they've run really well for a while they lean on it too much as a crutch and don't continue developing as a passer the way they should.  Or they go the Russell Wilson route and develop as a passer at the expense of rushing stats at times.

It kind of reminds me of pitchers in baseball to a lesser extent (though it happens much earlier for pitchers).  Typically in youth leagues the pitcher is also the best hitter, because it's just the best player overall.  But ultimately they hit a fork in the road where they end up spending so much time on pitching that they forego development as a hitter (the reason pretty much all MLB pitchers are poor hitters), or they focus on hitting and never develop enough as a pitcher to excel at it.

That's an extreme example but we do see it to some extent once these guys hit the NFL.  Cam's best fantasy season as a passer was his rookie year and his passing has never really excelled the way we thought it would for a rookie QB that threw for 4000+ yards at 7.8ypa as he's been banging into the line 120+ times on the ground every year.  Similar story for RG3 although the injury accelerated things for him (although his passing numbers were already down before the injury).

Russell Wilson has developed more as a passer as his rushing numbers have declined to the point where he's only running about half as much as Cam.

 

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On 7/10/2019 at 10:32 AM, EthnicFury said:

What’s Ito Smith worth? Last year he looked...ok. Now he’s inheriting a backup role with a history of very solid touches (by backup standards) in a good offense, behind a starter with a balky knee who may or may not still be any good at this point.

I’m lukewarm on the player but he seems to have a very plausible path to league-winning opportunity

Did Ito really look ok? Sell me on this take. He looked very average from what I saw. He avg 3.5 ypc. Coleman avg 4.8 ypc behind the same line. My perception is Ito has the beneficiary of a lack of depth behind Coleman. I would rather take a flyer on Ollison. Much cheaper.

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On 7/11/2019 at 1:17 PM, Andy Dufresne said:

Aaron Rodgers should bounce back to 30+ TDs this year, right? What would you give for an older QB like him or Roethlisberger? A lone 2nd? More?

QBs are so hard to value.

I own Rodgers in 12 team league. I wouldn’t move him for less then a younger QB + a 2020 1st. I know that is above market price but I am a fan boy and honestly not concern about his age. Barring injury he is gold for 3 more years minimum. 

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52 minutes ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

I own Rodgers in 12 team league. I wouldn’t move him for less then a younger QB + a 2020 1st. I know that is above market price but I am a fan boy and honestly not concern about his age. Barring injury he is gold for 3 more years minimum. 

I've been trying to send him (in an FFPC league where he's my #2 behind Watson) for Winston and a late 2020 1st with no luck so far

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2 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Did Ito really look ok? Sell me on this take. He looked very average from what I saw. He avg 3.5 ypc. Coleman avg 4.8 ypc behind the same line. My perception is Ito has the beneficiary of a lack of depth behind Coleman. I would rather take a flyer on Ollison. Much cheaper.

I’m not sure there’s that much implied difference between “ok” and “average.” Basically he didn’t do anything special but nothing I’ve ever read seemed to indicate he was missing gaping holes like Trent Richardson, putting the ball on the ground, going down to arm tackles/at first contact, etc. His numbers just weren’t anything to write home about. Whether you wanna call that ok, average, just a guy, etc is fine by me—there’s also some distinction between that vs actively bad.

That said, as somebody who did not see a ton of live Falcons football: if you read through his threads here or at a number of other boards, it seems like he was somewhat passing the eyeball test over the course of the season, and then after the season ended everyone looked at his stats, realized they weren’t great, and retroactively declared him not the answer. Which is probably true, but as another poster pointed out, Devonta Freeman didn’t look any better year 1, so I’m trying to figure out how much headroom he’s got or if he’s maxed out at what we saw.

the threads also seem to read like he was being used as a goal-line pounder a lot, which would explain the low ypc a bit (you’d hope for more touchdowns, but he’s also under 200 pounds so that may have been on the coaching staff).

Theres no mistaking him for saquon, but I’m not sure the book is written on him.

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10 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Did Ito really look ok? Sell me on this take. He looked very average from what I saw. He avg 3.5 ypc. Coleman avg 4.8 ypc behind the same line. My perception is Ito has the beneficiary of a lack of depth behind Coleman. I would rather take a flyer on Ollison. Much cheaper.

When he got in the lineup the last 2 weeks, Brian Hill seemed like a much better runner than Ito Smith. He and Ollison both have the size that Freeman and Smith don't as well, so its a fluid situation. I think there is a decent chance that if Freeman can't stay healthy, that Atlanta has a worthless running game, because in addition to the players being less effective, they'll also split more.

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22 hours ago, Milkman said:

He has better arm talent than Cam and he has better pocket awareness than RG3. He's also significantly faster than RG3 which is insane. 

Wilson is a decent comp arm talent wise but he's twice the runner Wilson is. We've never seen anything like him really. 

Significantly faster than RG3 seems like overstating it. It was all straight line, but didn't RG3 run an official 4.41? And as a healthy rookie outran entire NFL defenses. 

Now to his credit I think Murray is possibly as fast or faster. More importantly he has moves in the open field that RG3 didn't and better instincts as a runner. 

Just trying to reign in the hype a bit if you think he's "significantly faster" than a combine freak like RG3. 

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11 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Significantly faster than RG3 seems like overstating it. It was all straight line, but didn't RG3 run an official 4.41? And as a healthy rookie outran entire NFL defenses. 

Now to his credit I think Murray is possibly as fast or faster. More importantly he has moves in the open field that RG3 didn't and better instincts as a runner. 

Just trying to reign in the hype a bit if you think he's "significantly faster" than a combine freak like RG3. 

Murray is a low 4.3 guy. Here's the proof if you haven't seen it. 

 

https://youtu.be/-xkND1ScwuU

 

 

So yes he's significantly faster than RG3. 

 

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20 hours ago, EthnicFury said:

I’m not sure there’s that much implied difference between “ok” and “average.” Basically he didn’t do anything special but nothing I’ve ever read seemed to indicate he was missing gaping holes like Trent Richardson, putting the ball on the ground, going down to arm tackles/at first contact, etc. His numbers just weren’t anything to write home about. Whether you wanna call that ok, average, just a guy, etc is fine by me—there’s also some distinction between that vs actively bad.

That said, as somebody who did not see a ton of live Falcons football: if you read through his threads here or at a number of other boards, it seems like he was somewhat passing the eyeball test over the course of the season, and then after the season ended everyone looked at his stats, realized they weren’t great, and retroactively declared him not the answer. Which is probably true, but as another poster pointed out, Devonta Freeman didn’t look any better year 1, so I’m trying to figure out how much headroom he’s got or if he’s maxed out at what we saw.

the threads also seem to read like he was being used as a goal-line pounder a lot, which would explain the low ypc a bit (you’d hope for more touchdowns, but he’s also under 200 pounds so that may have been on the coaching staff).

Theres no mistaking him for saquon, but I’m not sure the book is written on him.

Ya I read OK as average, which gives Ito more credit than he deserves in my view. I agree he didn’t do anything special, which explains my position. I am aware of Freeman’s start, so there is a chance Ito becomes an asset. I just don’t understand the optimism.

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6 hours ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Significantly faster than RG3 seems like overstating it. It was all straight line, but didn't RG3 run an official 4.41? And as a healthy rookie outran entire NFL defenses. 

Now to his credit I think Murray is possibly as fast or faster. More importantly he has moves in the open field that RG3 didn't and better instincts as a runner. 

Just trying to reign in the hype a bit if you think he's "significantly faster" than a combine freak like RG3. 

*rein

 

You're welcome

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6 hours ago, Mr. Peterson said:

I’m not arguing he isnt a 4.3 guy.  But that video does not prove that.  

Well he's in a dead heat with a guy that ran a 4.31 40 so unless one of his legs falls off he can run a 4.3 something. 

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Any rg3 comparison to Murray is moot.  The NFL wasn't playing the college concepts that made the previous generation of qbs so proficient in college.  Nearly all of the qbs drafted around the few years rg3 was have flamed out as they never adapted to the pro game.  But now the pro game has changed to fit the college game, and a QB with Murray's abilities is perfect for the air raid offense.

 

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4 hours ago, Milkman said:

Well he's in a dead heat with a guy that ran a 4.31 40 so unless one of his legs falls off he can run a 4.3 something. 

Not even close to assume that.  There are so many factors that can prove he’s not a 4.3 guy just solely based on that video.  Pretty common sense what they are.

Again, I’m not denying he can’t.  But there is no way you can suggest he can run a 4.3 just because he was able to keep close while doing sprints during practice.  

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13 minutes ago, Mr. Peterson said:

Not even close to assume that.  There are so many factors that can prove he’s not a 4.3 guy just solely based on that video.  Pretty common sense what they are.

Again, I’m not denying he can’t.  But there is no way you can suggest he can run a 4.3 just because he was able to keep close while doing sprints during practice.  

It was a 20 yard sprint and they were even........I guess I'll let you think what you want. 

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11 minutes ago, Milkman said:

It was a 20 yard sprint and they were even........I guess I'll let you think what you want. 

to be fair, you're assuming a lot. 20 yards is nothing. Some guys take some time to get up to 4.3 speed for the 40 yard dash. Some guys start fast and get tired. you cant make major assumptions based off a "race" half the distance of one previously measured. 2.15 in the 20 yard dash does not equal 4.3 in the 40 yard dash. just as a 4.3 40 yard dash does not equal a 8.6 80 yard dash. 

 

ETA: If Murray can run a 4.3 40 yard dash, then he should have ran at the combine. 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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4 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

to be fair, you're assuming a lot. 20 yards is nothing. Some guys take some time to get up to 4.3 speed for the 40 yard dash. Some guys start fast and get tired. you cant make major assumptions based off a "race" half the distance of one previously measured. 2.15 in the 20 yard dash does not equal 4.3 in the 40 yard dash. just as a 4.3 40 yard dash does not equal a 8.6 80 yard dash. 

Yeah you're probably right. He probably would have beat Isabella. Lol

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Does it really matter? I think he's going to be awesome and potentially a fantasy game changer but arguing whether he runs a 4.3, or is faster than Isabella or RG3 seems kind of pointless. 

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Why would Kyler run a 40 at the combine when he had everything to lose, and nada to gain? He was picked first overall. Judging by the video, and the dude he’s up against, he runs 4.3-4.5.

Good enough for me. 

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5 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

to be fair, you're assuming a lot. 20 yards is nothing. Some guys take some time to get up to 4.3 speed for the 40 yard dash. Some guys start fast and get tired. you cant make major assumptions based off a "race" half the distance of one previously measured. 2.15 in the 20 yard dash does not equal 4.3 in the 40 yard dash. just as a 4.3 40 yard dash does not equal a 8.6 80 yard dash. 

 

ETA: If Murray can run a 4.3 40 yard dash, then he should have ran at the combine. 

Murray got drafted 1.01, he played his cards perfectly.

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8 hours ago, RushHour said:

Does it really matter? I think he's going to be awesome and potentially a fantasy game changer but arguing whether he runs a 4.3, or is faster than Isabella or RG3 seems kind of pointless. 

I agree. 

it's great people are excited over him. he could have a bright future. at the same time I think pumping the brakes wouldnt be a bad idea. Next thing will be Murrays sweat cures cancer. 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Who is the best value at around 1.05 rookie pick as of now in PPR? 1.02 & 1.03 had their clock expire so 1.04 is up & I have 1.05. Jacobs went 1.01. I'm not sure who to take. I need RB depth & a backup QB (To Goff), but also maybe trading down is better? Hmm..

If 2 & 3 don't make their picks I think you get excited that you can have either Harry or Montgomery, whichever 4 doesn't take.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

I agree. 

it's great people are excited over him. he could have a bright future. at the same time I think pumping the brakes wouldnt be a bad idea. Next thing will be Murrays sweat cures cancer. 

Yep i heard that last year about Mahomes. Doesn't mean I'm right about Murray but pumping the brakes isn't always the right move. 

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I'm not high on either, though. Overdrafted b/c Pats & timeshare for Mont... Am I overthinking?

Yes because that's primarily what you get with this class a bunch of guys in a timeshare or #2 type WRs.

The Pats offense will be drastically different and Harry has the requisite tools. And Montgomery is in the best position for the best numbers in a timeshare (unless you think Gurley is done).

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5 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Who is the best value at around 1.05 rookie pick as of now in PPR? 1.02 & 1.03 had their clock expire so 1.04 is up & I have 1.05. Jacobs went 1.01. I'm not sure who to take. I need RB depth & a backup QB (To Goff), but also maybe trading down is better? Hmm..

If you are intent on going RB, I would be very happy with either Sanders or Montgomery at 1.05.  BPA in terms of rookie draft capital is Harry, but I would take him only to then try to trade him away.

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5 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Who is the best value at around 1.05 rookie pick as of now in PPR? 1.02 & 1.03 had their clock expire so 1.04 is up & I have 1.05. Jacobs went 1.01. I'm not sure who to take. I need RB depth & a backup QB (To Goff), but also maybe trading down is better? Hmm..

Wow so guys that theoretically have bad teams don’t even bother to use the high picks they earned?

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4 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Wow so guys that theoretically have bad teams don’t even bother to use the high picks they earned?

Yeah that's what I was thinking. 

6 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I'm not high on either, though. Overdrafted b/c Pats & timeshare for Mont... Am I overthinking?

I agree about Harry but he is extremely flippable.

Personally I like Montgomery to emerge as a 3 down back in Chicago. I think Cohen will also play 3 downs but it will be something like two series for Montgomery one for Cohen. If they are in catchup mode they maybe lean heavier to Cohen if it's run out the clock or ball control modes they lean more to Montgomery. I don't think their defense will put them in a bunch of catchup scenarios. Also I really like the way Montgomery runs and I think he will really emerge there. But that's just my homer 10 cents. I also would have ran to make both those picks and not looked back. Henderson is the other one I would consider but maybe you can move back with Harry and get Henderson that way? Sanders is the one I think get stuck in a timeshare. Montgomery gets 60%+ in my opinion and that is as good as you'll get out of this draft.

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4 hours ago, Dave Stauff said:

Something wrong with a dyno when two of the top three rookie picks go unclaimed . . . just sayin'

Yeah those picks don't get skipped in any league I'm in, or I'm not in it anymore. Ruins the integrity of the league to skip the picks, the owners need to be replaced ASAP if they're missing the draft. Otherwise nothing is as it should have been in the draft. Nevermind the fact that a league can't be competitive under these conditions. And what's the point of winning by 'lucking into' picks that should have belonged to the inactive owners? It's a waste of time.

I'd be embarrassed to post about being in that league, nevermind asking for advice about it. 

Edited by ConnSKINS26
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On 7/16/2019 at 7:30 PM, Milkman said:

Yeah you're probably right. He probably would have beat Isabella. Lol

Isabella talks Murray

"I started smokin' him and he got mad, and that was the only one he came close to beating me"

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9 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Guys, if all  are there with you OTC in your dynasty PPR rookie draft in mid 2nd, which do you take? Isabella, JJAW , Hockenson, D. Johnson, Haskins or M. Brown? I flip flop between Isabella & JJAW

Hockenson. If you don’t want a TE it’s a tough one for me. I’ve had that choice and taken jjaw, Isabella and Brown once each in 3 different leagues. There’s things I like and dislike quite a bit with each. Haskins and Johnson are reaches imo.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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29 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Guys, if all  are there with you OTC in your dynasty PPR rookie draft in mid 2nd, which do you take? Isabella, JJAW , Hockenson, D. Johnson, Haskins or M. Brown? I flip flop between Isabella & JJAW

Isabella for me. Still underrated in rookie drafts. I should say though that I would never draft JJAW or Hockensen - just not a fan at all. 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Guys, if all  are there with you OTC in your dynasty PPR rookie draft in mid 2nd, which do you take? Isabella, JJAW , Hockenson, D. Johnson, Haskins or M. Brown? I flip flop between Isabella & JJAW

Hockenson most times, Isabella if not him.  Super easy choice, the rest aren't worth it to me.  

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12 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Hockenson. If you don’t want a TE it’s a tough one for me. I’ve had that choice and taken jjaw, Isabella and Brown once each in 3 different leagues. There’s things I like and dislike quite a bit with each. Haskins and Johnson are reaches imo.

Personally, I would rather have Fant at a cheaper price.

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14 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Guys, if all  are there with you OTC in your dynasty PPR rookie draft in mid 2nd, which do you take? Isabella, JJAW , Hockenson, D. Johnson, Haskins or M. Brown? I flip flop between Isabella & JJAW

Probably a little late seeing it, but I'd rank those guys:

Hockenson>JJAW>Isabella>Hollywood>Haskins>Johnson

I could probably make a case for a WR, if you are loaded at TE, although there are probably only about 5-6 TE's I like much more than Hockenson going forward. 

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35 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Probably a little late seeing it, but I'd rank those guys:

Hockenson>JJAW>Isabella>Hollywood>Haskins>Johnson

I could probably make a case for a WR, if you are loaded at TE, although there are probably only about 5-6 TE's I like much more than Hockenson going forward. 

Detroit isn't exactly a great landing spot for TE........

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While I really think JJAW has more long term potential (career longevity) in the Eagles offense (with little competition), but for the next 3 years Isabella is the pick I would take. 

He has more opportunity only having Funchess as competition.  I like Isabella almost as much as Deebo.  

I don't see Hock doing much in that offense.  Ker Johnson & Galloday will control everything.  Marvin Jones (29 yo) or Amedola (33) will be the #2 passing option leaving little for TE. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

While I really think JJAW has more long term potential (career longevity) in the Eagles offense (with little competition), but for the next 3 years Isabella is the pick I would take. 

He has more opportunity only having Funchess as competition.  I like Isabella almost as much as Deebo.  

I don't see Hock doing much in that offense.  Ker Johnson & Galloday will control everything.  Marvin Jones (29 yo) or Amedola (33) will be the #2 passing option leaving little for TE. 

 

Nope. Isabella has Fitzgerald, Kirk and Butler to compete with. Even David Johnson. You are thinking of Paris Campbell.

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1 minute ago, barackdhouse said:

Nope. Isabella has Fitzgerald, Kirk and Butler to compete with. Even David Johnson. You are thinking of Paris Campbell.

TY.. my bad.  

I don't know why I put him on Indy....  Then I want JJAW. 

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1 minute ago, hispeedthinmint said:

JJAW has just as much in front of him...

I think he wins snaps from Agholor sooner than later. Djax isn't a high volume guy. Jeffery will miss games. Ertz is the biggest target barrier. That is year one, though. Year two JJAW is the #1b to Ertz #1a. 

But you're right there is a lot in front of him. 

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21 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I went JJAW

I think you’ll be happy next year.  Good luck.

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5 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Which late round rookie draft RBs is everyone looking at?

Trayveon Williams, Dexter Williams, Bruce Anderson. In no order but Bruce could be a darkhorse if Jones and Barber both suck as much as everyone thinks. 

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35 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

I think he wins snaps from Agholor sooner than later. Djax isn't a high volume guy. Jeffery will miss games. Ertz is the biggest target barrier. That is year one, though. Year two JJAW is the #1b to Ertz #1a. 

But you're right there is a lot in front of him. 

I love Arcega-Whiteside, and thought he should have been a 1st round pick, but I think people are really putting Alshon Jeffery out to pasture prematurely. He's been a top-20 WR over the last 2 years on a per game basis, despite not being healthy for much of that time, and switching between QB's. He's a pretty significant roadblock.

I do agree on Agholor and Jackson though. By year's end, I would hope the Eagles are running a base offense of Sanders-Jeffery-JJAW-Ertz-Goedert, because that seems like a nightmare for opposing defenses.

57 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Detroit isn't exactly a great landing spot for TE........

I don't think its a bad one either. I see no reason why Hockenson can't be the #2 target after Golladay going forward. Jones, Amendola, and Riddick are all good bets to not be on the team in 2020, and its possible Hockenson passes all of them in the pecking order this year anyway.

 

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2 minutes ago, travdogg said:

 

I don't think its a bad one either. I see no reason why Hockenson can't be the #2 target after Golladay going forward. Jones, Amendola, and Riddick are all good bets to not be on the team in 2020, and its possible Hockenson passes all of them in the pecking order this year anyway.

 

Yeah you're a lot higher on him than me. I'm trying to remember the last time detroit had a top 10 TE in FF. Not saying they haven't but I can't recall one.....

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