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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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wgoldsph
Footballguy
Deebo is being counted on as a wr2 already?
Edit - I have him sitting on my ts in my big money league, mostly due to cap constraints. But if I'm going into week one and can expect wr2/3 numbers right off the bat then he's worth calling up right away.
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As I do so love to say, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. Metcalf was 3rd in his team in yards and missed 5 games. The top 2 receivers you allude to played 12 and 11 games. I would hope that they beat his numbers. How about we look at the numbers for the time frame Metcalf DID play? Through week 7:
AJ Brown had 50/652/4 about 7/93/.57 per game
DaMarkus Lodge had 35/466/2 about 6/78/.33 per game (he missed week 2)
Metcalf had 26/569/5 about 3.5/81/.71 per game
So yes, he had lesser stats than Brown, something everyone knew. He was not the number 3 guy, he was the 2 and obviously a deep threat, touchdown threat as opposed to a possession receiver. Deebo averaged 5/73/.91 per game in his final year of college. I’m not seeing the major discrepancy in their on field production.
If you want to knock Metcalf for not having been on the field much in college, that is completely fair and justified. NFL teams certainly knocked him for it. But don’t paint this misleading picture about his production when he was on the field. I would rather have Metcalf purely because while he doesn’t have #1 opportunity like Deebo, we know he Metcalf functions fine as a #2 and he has an elite QB throwing it to him.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not a fan of JJ. I can't discount the landing spot and production, but he's not my style of WR. Questionable functional athleticism and route running ability. A lot of contested catches. I didn't like his clips/highlights. He should be good in the red zone, but I question his ability to win consistently in the NFL. Separation could be a problem. If you want a positive comparison, Mike Evans has some similar traits as a taller, rangier WR with less-than-ideal quickness out of his breaks and he's found a way to make it work in the NFL. Alshon Jeffery is another one. I'm not going to say JJ has no chance, but for me Deebo is an easier projection. Big, strong, fluid, and a natural playmaker. Those guys usually do well at the next level. I have Enunwa as his floor and Boldin as his ceiling, but I think he's closer to the good end of that spectrum. Grabbed him in 3/5 rookie drafts this year and would've taken him elsewhere if he had fallen to me. I have him as a top 5 rookie in this draft with Jacobs, AJ Brown, Sanders, and Harry.
EBF
Footballguy
That's fair. I still think the product on the field doesn't match the workout metrics. Guys who have elite tools on paper and "meh" results on the field are typically strong bust candidates regardless of position. He has all that height and speed, but rarely looked like a guy who was toying with his competition in college. It shouldn't be any easier on Sundays. I don't think he's a lock to bust, but I don't love the risk/reward at his rookie draft ADP. I'm indifferent towards him.
Russell Wilson is a winner in real life and a solid fantasy QB because of his rushing ability, but has not been a prolific passer to this point in his pro career. His season ranks in terms of passing yards:
2018 - 18th
2017 - 9th
2016 - 10th
2015 - 12th
2014 - 15th
2013 - 16th
He's really not that Brees/Manning/Rodgers type of QB who is going to heave the ball 600 times and rack up the yards. They don't use him like that. They run the ball and play a conservative style of game that hasn't equated to gobs of production for his receivers thus far.
Now, with that being said, I'm not a situation guy in dynasty. I think people put way too much emphasis on that most of the time. If you think Metcalf is a monster then I would say take him regardless of his QB. Great players don't need great opportunity to be valuable. However, the idea that Wilson is a big positive is something that I would dispute. You could certainly do a lot worse than Seattle for rookie WR landing spots, but unless they take the training wheels off and decide to let Wilson air it out, he's not a guy whose presence figures to really boost his WR's output.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I don't see why not. People are pointing to Pettis, but I was never on that train. Both Deebo and Hurd are better prospects than Pettis was IMO. Garoppolo has to throw to someone other than Kittle. Deebo is great after the catch and good at separating, same with Hurd. Just depends on who builds chemistry the most I think. That's probably the best outcome, a WR2 type of season, but it's possible. Not a guy I'd feel comfortable with there, same as Samuel which is why I made that comparison, but there's a very real possibility they both produce WR2 seasons. Assuming Garoppolo is good, which I'm not totally sold on yet.wgoldsph said:
jm192
Footballguy
Keenan Allen—comparable RB’s value wise?
A guy in our league has David Johnson, Connor, Aaron Jones, Kerryon and Sanders.
I’ve got Gurley and Singleterry.
I’ve sent several massive packages, and it looks like the only person he is interested in is Keenan Allen.
Today he offered Kerryon straight up for Allen, but I feel like Allen is a decent bit more valuable than Kerryon.
Am I mistaken?
A guy in our league has David Johnson, Connor, Aaron Jones, Kerryon and Sanders.
I’ve got Gurley and Singleterry.
I’ve sent several massive packages, and it looks like the only person he is interested in is Keenan Allen.
Today he offered Kerryon straight up for Allen, but I feel like Allen is a decent bit more valuable than Kerryon.
Am I mistaken?
Hindreys Dynasty Trade Value Chart has Johnson at 26 points and Allen at 27. Depending on your league scoring and if, like most leagues, RBs are just valued higher I'd do that deal.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I wouldn't take Kerryon for Keenan. Everyone has forgotten how good he actually is. He's like AJ Green but better, younger, and always forgotten. I'd ask for Conner or DJ straight up, but otherwise I wouldn't want any others and just keep receiving the rewards of Keenan.
Other's I'd compare him to; Mixon, Chubb and depending on how high you are on a few others, Dalvin Cook, Derrius Guice and Josh Jacobs.
Other's I'd compare him to; Mixon, Chubb and depending on how high you are on a few others, Dalvin Cook, Derrius Guice and Josh Jacobs.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't think you're getting Mixon or Chubb for Allen in many leagues. Would take another very good player (like Singletary) on the Allen side.
I agree with Kerryon being very close in value to Allen. But if you don't like Kerryon don't force it. I don't think you can ask for much more than Kerryon. You could ask for something significant added to Jones or Sanders.
I agree with Kerryon being very close in value to Allen. But if you don't like Kerryon don't force it. I don't think you can ask for much more than Kerryon. You could ask for something significant added to Jones or Sanders.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Kerryon is typically going just ahead of Allen at this point in startup drafts if anything.
In terms of value right now I would put it as roughly (according to consensus).
DJ > KA
Conner = Kerryon = KA = Jones (maybe each starting from the left is slightly more valuable than the next to the right).
KA > Sanders
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Allen is definitely forgetten in some respects. Not young enough or elite enough to be exciting in terms of value. He's definitely been the last one taken of those somewhat young, pretty reliable WRs in startups I've been doing recently. Often he's been falling to late 3rd or early 4th in them while Chubb/Mixon are typically going in the late 1st. Even though I think Allen is somewhat underrated since he's seen as "boring", he's not touching those guys in value right now.
Honestly I think in most leagues even Allen + 1st wouldn't get it done for Chubb or Mixon.
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RC94
Footballguy
I agree with this, and if you can't get a better player than Kerryon for Allen, then I would just hold onto him. He seems more valuable to keep than to trade if the general consensus is that he's worth Kerryon straight up.
I would take Kerryon over DJ. He's 5.5 years younger (22.2 vs. 27.7). If I was @jm192 I would be tempted to take that Kerryon offer depending on my team build and I'm a Keenan (27.4) fan.
az_prof
Footballguy
Johnson offers more risk but more upside and is younger. I think it's fair so long as you are in a PPR.
EBF
Footballguy
Not from me. I would also take Josh Jacobs over Keenan.
Allen is proven quality. The downside is that he's approaching the backslope of his prime. You also have some uncertainty about Rivers aging and Williams/Henry eating into his targets. He can still have 3-5 more good years and I certainly wouldn't hate having him on my roster, but I don't think you're getting an elite young three-down back for him in 2019.
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
Thoughts on Gallups value? Hes been offered to me for a high 2020 2nd... thinking of taking it
Zyphros
Footballguy
He's going to blow up the first 3-4 weeks of the year here.
Giants, Redskins, Dolphins, Saints, Packers all either shootouts or blowouts.
I don't trade away high picks unless I'm sure that the player I'm after is elite. I'm not sure about Gallup yet. He might be more safe WR3 for a fantasy team, rather than really good WR2. If he is a really good WR2 for a fantasy team, then I'd make the deal and trade for him. But he seems like your typical package player you'd want to trade away for an upgrade elsewhere.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't view him as anything great, but he only has to get about 800/5 to be worth more than that. I would sell if its a short bench but probably hold if its a deep bench, at that pricetag.
Gallup for an early 2nd is interesting. That's pretty much where he was drafted a year ago. I'm not saying he's worth more than that, but I'd want more than an early 2020 2nd for my early 2018 2nd investment.
Anybody seen any other trades? Would be interested to know what great/awful week 1s did for volatile guys like Hollywood, McLaurin, AJ Brown, Tyrell Williams, Corey Davis, Pettis, Michel, Chark, etc.
Anybody seen any other trades? Would be interested to know what great/awful week 1s did for volatile guys like Hollywood, McLaurin, AJ Brown, Tyrell Williams, Corey Davis, Pettis, Michel, Chark, etc.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well people were investing in him with a 2018 2nd with the notion that he could be Dallas' lead WR out of the gates or at least pretty quickly. That ship has now sailed with Cooper coming to town so I could see people wanting out for what they paid.
That makes sense. I never had any shares. I forgot about that dream people had last year.
neal cassady
Footballguy
I’m wanting to deal Devonte Freeman as he appears to be in decline and his usage scares me. When looking at the dynasty running backs ranked below him, and specifically those younger than him, I am seeing guys like Aaron Jones (whom I doubt I would get for Freeman), Cohen, Lindsay, Henderson, Penny and Royce Freeman. I guess I’m wondering how Devonte’s long term dynasty outlook compares to these guys? I’ve also got Marlon Mack, Sony Michel (and Damian Harris) and Miles Sanders, so I can afford to not have an immediate impact player if I deal Freeman. Would any of you deal Freeman for Henderson? Penny? Cohen? TIA
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Good luck, going to need some big weeks to get value. People have been down on him for a year or two and the first game didn't help.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I like D Freeman, but the ATL OL is a trainwreck for him & Matt Ryan. I don't know what the problem is, but they could do nothing last week vs Minn DL and I expect some "development" time needed, but to me, these growing pains are the opportunity to Buy Low.
I am not sure I would move him right now unless you get good value. I would target M Ingram (high end) or Devin Singletary (low end range).
Maybe this had to do with Minnesota having one of the best DL in the league? I am not saying ATL O-line is great but saying they couldn't do anything against the Vikes is probably something that will be said by a few teams this year when they play Minnesota. It was not a good matchup.
Birdie048
Footballguy
Completely agree. But they also had numerous OL injuries 2018 and this was their first real challenge this year (pre-season had 3 different OL lineups / not consistent). I think ATL Offense will be Top 10 and they will get it going.
Agreed. The time to sell Freeman was long ago. Doubt you could get anything decent for him at this point, certainly not a younger RB with even a hint of upside (no matter what rankings say).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
They looked terrible in the preseason as well. The starters played deep into the half including Ryan and the Falcons made the Jets look like the late 70s Steelers.Birdie048 said:
tkrull
Footballguy
So QBs are devalued in typical 'start one' leagues. How do you adjust your valuation when roster size is so large no starters are available as free agents and most of the promising backups are also rostered? Does the value start to approach superflex levels?
Shopping for QBs due to injuries but struggling with the asking price.
Shopping for QBs due to injuries but struggling with the asking price.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
They shouldn’t be valued as they are in SF leagues, IMO, as deep benches wouldn’t impact the VBD they provide. And I assume the waiver wire is bare as a rule, not just for QBs.
If you’re in a bind and are competing, you might need to bite the bullet and overpay a bit. But I wouldn’t treat them much differently in general. At most I’d be more inclined to roster the likes of Flacco and Keenum over low end r/w/t guys.
No, they're still borderline "dime a dozen" as long as we're talking 1QB x 12 teams. The difference is that they're not literally free since they're not on the waiver wire. But trade value remains low because most teams have extra QBs and very few teams need them, so basic law of supply and demand applies: more teams selling than buying = buyer's market.
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
Price check on Singletary?
Worth Golladay in PPR?
Worth Golladay in PPR?
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
All things being equal:
Montgomery or Michel?
Montgomery or Michel?
Michel's injury history and his lack of usage in the passing game has me avoiding Michel in most scenarios outside of a deal I can't pass up.
Montgomery I think will be a very good running back but it may take half a season for both Nagy and Montgomery (and Trubs) to figure things out.
I'd take Montgomery right now if I had to choose, but it's closer than I likely think it is.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I am no Montgomery apologist but I would take him way way way ahead of Michel.
One guy has a coach who seems to prefer a lead back, can catch, has no notable injury history, and looks quick/elusive on the field.
The other has a coach that changes his mind on his RB daily, is a zero in the passing game, has major injury risk, and looks like a plodder on the field.
Not close for me.
One guy has a coach who seems to prefer a lead back, can catch, has no notable injury history, and looks quick/elusive on the field.
The other has a coach that changes his mind on his RB daily, is a zero in the passing game, has major injury risk, and looks like a plodder on the field.
Not close for me.
Zyphros
Footballguy
Singletary I'd say he's worth a mid/early 2nd in rookie pick. I wouldn't pay it myself honestly, but I imagine someone would. Hell if someone was a big fan they might even pay a 1st. I would say he's a definite sell and wouldn't want him long term. That backfield is guaranteed to add competition in 2020, could be one of the highly sought after rookie RB's.
Golladay is easily worth more than Singletary. He's the #1 on that team no questions asked, the team is better all around as well. Probably near WR15 overall I'd imagine.
Same here. I don't particularly love Montgomery or anything but he's shown enough for me to rank him highly.
Michel is a guy I'll never touch, and the shares I do have of him, I'm desperate to get rid of him. He's broken 1 tackle all year.... Montgomery triples that on 1 carry.
Montgomery I'd put somewhere around RB15, Michel just doing a quick count probably near RB30.
You should be able to get a 1st from a contender in need. If you don't have any of those in your league, then you're probably going to have to work a player-for-player or a package deal. I'd be looking to hit up owners of younger injured/underperforming players. Guys like Guice, Kerryon, Royce, Michel... and if you're looking for WRs, maybe Corey Davis or Diggs. Those are not all straight 1-to-1 trades, but they're guys you might be able to pry away for your rebuild.
Singletary by the end of August was going in the back end of the first round in some drafts. He's come into the league and is nearly averaging 12.7 ypc on 10 carries to go with 5 catches in 2 games.
As an owner why would I give him up for an unknown 2nd round pick?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A late first - maybe? - on paper. He’s a big short-term piece for contenders, but he’s not a sexy asset and there is a lot of hype around the 2020 class. A 2nd and an equally valuable player (2nd) might be as good as it gets in most leagues.DexterDew said:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Traded Sony Michel and a 2nd to get him yesterday.DexterDew said:
Zyphros
Footballguy
Singletary was definitely not a 1st round pick in rookie picks. You’re betting on an extreme outlier if he does more. These backup RBs have better ypc than the starters quite a bit because of small sample and breaking a big one. Most of them don’t work out as bellcows. Plus he’s a bad athlete that was in a poor conference in college. All that leads to limited production in the NFL.ty247 said:
Like I mentioned before, they have 0 talent in that RB room while Gore is almost dead. No chance they don’t add more next year. It’s a main “need” for the team, even if Singletary hits. He’s due for a time share at best.
