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57 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Thoughts on AJ Brown and Curtis Samuel?

Was offered his Samuel and 2020 3rd (late) for my AJ Brown

That's tough.

I don't think much of a late 3rd round pick, even in 2020 but if your league has very deep benches, it may have more value there.

They both have talented WRs across the field to compete for targets but Samuel has a better situation (QB). Nothing but good coming out of camp on Samuel.

Noodling it over, since it was offered to you, I might counter back with asking for his 2020 2nd back instead of 3rd and take that deal. 

Edited by Avery
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On 8/12/2019 at 12:47 PM, cloppbeast said:

Price check TY Hilton. Trying to get Metcalf. I'm thinking they're about even but not really sure.

I own Hilton and I like Metcalf. I would probably do Hilton for Metcalf plus a first rounder but I’d have to also gauge where I think that first rounder will land. A late pick? I might even pass on that deal.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Dan said:

Thoughts on AJ Brown and Curtis Samuel?

Was offered his Samuel and 2020 3rd (late) for my AJ Brown

Depends on what you're looking to do I think.  On one hand, AJ Brown is 3x (if not more) the prospect that Curtis Samuel was.  But that's the thing, they aren't prospects anymore.  AJ Brown is stuck in the mud on one of the worst offenses in all of football.  Samuel, on one of the better ones I'd imagine.  Not to mention the growth that Samuel has seen over his last couple years in the league.  Can we expect a similar path from AJ Brown or is his growth stunted by the useless Titans.  It's a tough question for me to answer, but if I needed a comfortable WR3 rather than wait a year to see, I think I'm going Samuel.  If I'm in a startup I still go AJ Brown though.  

Samuel is criminally undervalued all over the place right now though. 

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16 minutes ago, pecorino said:

I own Hilton and I like Metcalf. I would probably do Hilton for Metcalf plus a first rounder but I’d have to also gauge where I think that first rounder will land. A late pick? I might even pass on that deal.

#### man, I sort of agree. But show me a Metcalf owner who would do that?

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10 hours ago, Zyphros said:

 but if I needed a comfortable WR3 rather than wait a year to see, I think I'm going Samuel.  If I'm in a startup I still go AJ Brown though.  

Samuel is criminally undervalued all over the place right now though. 

I'll add to it even more then. If you are counting on Samuel as your WR3, then you aren't winning your league or even being a serious contender. The camp buzz is nice and all but these small quick guys always dominate in camp where the defenders are going half speed and can't really hit. I think Samuel is a very nice NFL player, but I don't think he'll be productive enough behind CMc, Moore and maybe even Olson to be a fantasy asset for this year outside of having 3 or 4 nice games which we will not know when to expect them.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

I'll add to it even more then. If you are counting on Samuel as your WR3, then you aren't winning you're league or even being a serious contender. The camp buzz is nice and all but these small quick guys always dominate in camp were the defenders are going half speed and can't really hit. I think Samuel is a very nice NFL player I don't think he'll be productive enough behind CMc, Moore and maybe even Olson to be a fantasy asset for this year outside of having 3 or 4 nice games which we will not know when to expect them.

Is he best as a bye week filler?  Yes, but he could easily outproduce some guys that are being counted on as WR2's.  Kirk, Shepard, Calvin Ridley, Sutton, Deebo, Boyd, even Lockett to an extent, all have similar outcomes to what I expect Samuel to do this year.  Assuming Cam is healthy that is.  Am I comfortable with them as a WR3?  Not particularly, since it involves risk there, but can he be a WR2 if things break right?  He sure can, along with the rest of that list.  

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6 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 Yes, but he could easily outproduce some guys that are being counted on as WR2's.  Kirk, Shepard, Calvin Ridley, Sutton, Deebo, Boyd, even Lockett to an extent, all have similar outcomes to what I expect Samuel to do this year. 

Yeah, I would easily take any of those guys as a WR2 over Samuel. The only ones he may have a chance at out-producing are Shepard and Deebo (and I'd take them in dynasty and in redraft over him). Moore is only a fantasy WR2 imo and he's a  better player and will see more targets than Samuel.

I like Samuel for the Panthers and I'm not saying he has no dynasty value - he could develop - but he's missed significant time both seasons and I'm only disputing that he's a "win now" type player like you implied by saying "but if I needed a comfortable WR3 rather than wait a year to see"...

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17 hours ago, EBF said:

I am here on a mission to preach the gospel of Deebo and encourage people to open their hearts and accept their new lord and savior before judgment day comes and he's suddenly commanding huge dynasty asking prices, but ultimately we all have free will in this matter and if you want to dig your heels in and be wrong then you are welcome to do so. :boxing:

Hallelujah!  🙏

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I'll add to it even more then. If you are counting on Samuel as your WR3, then you aren't winning your league or even being a serious contender. The camp buzz is nice and all but these small quick guys always dominate in camp where the defenders are going half speed and can't really hit. I think Samuel is a very nice NFL player, but I don't think he'll be productive enough behind CMc, Moore and maybe even Olson to be a fantasy asset for this year outside of having 3 or 4 nice games which we will not know when to expect them.

I feel inclined to stand up for Samuel a little. Outside of McCaffrey, anybody's guess how the targets get distributed this year and beyond. As much as I like Moore, like Samuel, he's all hype at this point. These two are a lot closer than people think imo.

Edited by cloppbeast

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1 minute ago, cloppbeast said:

I feel inclined to stand up for Samuel a little. Outside of McCaffrey, anybody's guess how the targets get distributed this year and beyond. As much as I like Moore, like Samuel, he's all hype at this point. These two are a lot closer than people think imo.

Moore was a first round pick and averaged 14 ypc with an average of 7 yards coming after the catch. He outperformed Samuel last year as a rookie in every way except for TDs and they are volatile.

Once again, however, my main point is that trading for Samuel because you need a WR3 for this season (while giving away a guy you drafted in Round 1 this year) doesn't seem like a great idea - if you like him long term that's fine.

IMO he's one of those guys that are better NFL players than fantasy assets though (I could end up being wrong about that of course).

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I would love to have Samuel as my WR3 with WR2 upside.

in PPR from Week 7-17 he was 22nd WR, which is WR2 (Moore was WR 24)

there is enough Samuel hype all over the place from camp that i don't need to regurgitate.

No one ever doubted Samuel's athletic ability (4.31 40). DLF had them as their WR6 in front of Goodwin and Kupp. He's just finally healthy and learning how to be a WR instead of a gadget player

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27 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Moore was a first round pick and averaged 14 ypc with an average of 7 yards coming after the catch. He outperformed Samuel last year as a rookie in every way except for TDs and they are volatile.

Once again, however, my main point is that trading for Samuel because you need a WR3 for this season (while giving away a guy you drafted in Round 1 this year) doesn't seem like a great idea - if you like him long term that's fine.

IMO he's one of those guys that are better NFL players than fantasy assets though (I could end up being wrong about that of course).

Samuel was at one point a 1st round pick, no? A long play as a rookie, his third year makes a great time to buy. No doubt a high risk WR3, but a much better option for that task than AJ Brown.

Honestly, the trade has more to do with AJ Brown than Samuel. Especially if I needed a WR3, I would take anything resembling one for him. And if you like the guy, try to get him next year or 2 after his hype has completely died. The chances of him adding to his dynasty value as the Titans' 3rd WR, well they aren't very high in my estimation.

Edited by cloppbeast

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Just now, cloppbeast said:

Samuel was at one point a 1st round pick, no? A long play as a rookie, his third year makes a great time to buy. No doubt a high risk WR3, but a much better option for that task than AJ Brown.

Honestly, the trade has more to do with AJ Brown than Samuel. Especially if I needed a WR3, I would take anything resembling one for AJ Brown. And if you like the guy, try to get him next year or 2 after his hype has completely died. The chances of him adding to his dynasty value as the Titans' 3rd WR, well they aren't very high in my estimation.

Round 2 for Samuel (I admit I thought he was a 3rd rounder though). I don't think Samuel will be a WR3 this season - I guess that's the difference.

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23 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

The one you want is DK Metcalf. There's nothing compact about him

There's nothing compact about Metcalf...except his stat line. Workout freak and allegedly great talent, but finished a distant third on his college team in receiving yards last season. That's generally not a good look. There's an argument that he might have more upside than Deebo, but his floor is a lot lower. For all of his obvious workout traits, it's unclear whether or not he's actually good at football. Deebo may be a better functional athlete, is more productive on the field, and was picked almost a full round higher in the NFL draft.

I know where I'd lay my money...

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2 hours ago, EBF said:

There's nothing compact about Metcalf...except his stat line. Workout freak and allegedly great talent, but finished a distant third on his college team in receiving yards last season. That's generally not a good look. There's an argument that he might have more upside than Deebo, but his floor is a lot lower. For all of his obvious workout traits, it's unclear whether or not he's actually good at football. Deebo may be a better functional athlete, is more productive on the field, and was picked almost a full round higher in the NFL draft.

I know where I'd lay my money...

Thoughts on Deebo vs Arsega-whiteside? 

Sitting at the 11th pick in a rookie draft, and those 2 are both very intriguing. Love your take on deebo ... just wanted to get your thoughts on sega as well.

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Just moved David Montgomery/Whiteside for Le’Veon/Hyde/2020 2nd

:shrug:

Edited by -jb-

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13 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Is he best as a bye week filler?  Yes, but he could easily outproduce some guys that are being counted on as WR2's.  Kirk, Shepard, Calvin Ridley, Sutton, Deebo, Boyd, even Lockett to an extent, all have similar outcomes to what I expect Samuel to do this year.  Assuming Cam is healthy that is.  Am I comfortable with them as a WR3?  Not particularly, since it involves risk there, but can he be a WR2 if things break right?  He sure can, along with the rest of that list.  

Deebo is being counted on as a wr2 already?

 

Edit - I have him sitting on my ts in my big money league, mostly due to cap constraints.  But if I'm going into week one and can expect wr2/3 numbers right off the bat then he's worth calling up right away.

Edited by wgoldsph

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3 hours ago, EBF said:

There's nothing compact about Metcalf...except his stat line. Workout freak and allegedly great talent, but finished a distant third on his college team in receiving yards last season. That's generally not a good look. There's an argument that he might have more upside than Deebo, but his floor is a lot lower. For all of his obvious workout traits, it's unclear whether or not he's actually good at football. Deebo may be a better functional athlete, is more productive on the field, and was picked almost a full round higher in the NFL draft.

I know where I'd lay my money...

As I do so love to say, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. Metcalf was 3rd in his team in yards and missed 5 games. The top 2 receivers you allude to played 12 and 11 games. I would hope that they beat his numbers. How about we look at the numbers for the time frame Metcalf DID play? Through week 7:

AJ Brown had 50/652/4 about 7/93/.57 per game

DaMarkus Lodge had 35/466/2 about 6/78/.33 per game (he missed week 2)

Metcalf had 26/569/5 about 3.5/81/.71 per game

So yes, he had lesser stats than Brown, something everyone knew. He was not the number 3 guy, he was the 2 and obviously a deep threat, touchdown threat as opposed to a possession receiver. Deebo averaged 5/73/.91 per game in his final year of college. I’m not seeing the major discrepancy in their on field production.

If you want to knock Metcalf for not having been on the field much in college, that is completely fair and justified. NFL teams certainly knocked him for it. But don’t paint this misleading picture about his production when he was on the field. I would rather have Metcalf purely because while he doesn’t have #1 opportunity like Deebo, we know he Metcalf functions fine as a #2 and he has an elite QB throwing it to him.

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2 hours ago, Ray Barboni said:

Thoughts on Deebo vs Arsega-whiteside? 

Sitting at the 11th pick in a rookie draft, and those 2 are both very intriguing. Love your take on deebo ... just wanted to get your thoughts on sega as well.

I'm not a fan of JJ. I can't discount the landing spot and production, but he's not my style of WR. Questionable functional athleticism and route running ability. A lot of contested catches. I didn't like his clips/highlights. He should be good in the red zone, but I question his ability to win consistently in the NFL. Separation could be a problem. If you want a positive comparison, Mike Evans has some similar traits as a taller, rangier WR with less-than-ideal quickness out of his breaks and he's found a way to make it work in the NFL. Alshon Jeffery is another one. I'm not going to say JJ has no chance, but for me Deebo is an easier projection. Big, strong, fluid, and a natural playmaker. Those guys usually do well at the next level. I have Enunwa as his floor and Boldin as his ceiling, but I think he's closer to the good end of that spectrum. Grabbed him in 3/5 rookie drafts this year and would've taken him elsewhere if he had fallen to me. I have him as a top 5 rookie in this draft with Jacobs, AJ Brown, Sanders, and Harry.

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1 hour ago, gabes1919 said:

As I do so love to say, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. Metcalf was 3rd in his team in yards and missed 5 games. The top 2 receivers you allude to played 12 and 11 games. I would hope that they beat his numbers. How about we look at the numbers for the time frame Metcalf DID play? Through week 7:

AJ Brown had 50/652/4 about 7/93/.57 per game

DaMarkus Lodge had 35/466/2 about 6/78/.33 per game (he missed week 2)

Metcalf had 26/569/5 about 3.5/81/.71 per game

So yes, he had lesser stats than Brown, something everyone knew. He was not the number 3 guy, he was the 2 and obviously a deep threat, touchdown threat as opposed to a possession receiver. Deebo averaged 5/73/.91 per game in his final year of college. I’m not seeing the major discrepancy in their on field production.

That's fair. I still think the product on the field doesn't match the workout metrics. Guys who have elite tools on paper and "meh" results on the field are typically strong bust candidates regardless of position. He has all that height and speed, but rarely looked like a guy who was toying with his competition in college. It shouldn't be any easier on Sundays. I don't think he's a lock to bust, but I don't love the risk/reward at his rookie draft ADP. I'm indifferent towards him.

Russell Wilson is a winner in real life and a solid fantasy QB because of his rushing ability, but has not been a prolific passer to this point in his pro career. His season ranks in terms of passing yards:

2018 - 18th

2017 - 9th

2016 - 10th

2015 - 12th

2014 - 15th

2013 - 16th

He's really not that Brees/Manning/Rodgers type of QB who is going to heave the ball 600 times and rack up the yards. They don't use him like that. They run the ball and play a conservative style of game that hasn't equated to gobs of production for his receivers thus far.

Now, with that being said, I'm not a situation guy in dynasty. I think people put way too much emphasis on that most of the time. If you think Metcalf is a monster then I would say take him regardless of his QB. Great players don't need great opportunity to be valuable. However, the idea that Wilson is a big positive is something that I would dispute. You could certainly do a lot worse than Seattle for rookie WR landing spots, but unless they take the training wheels off and decide to let Wilson air it out, he's not a guy whose presence figures to really boost his WR's output.

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11 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Deebo is being counted on as a wr2 already?

 

Edit - I have him sitting on my ts in my big money league, mostly due to cap constraints.  But if I'm going into week one and can expect wr2/3 numbers right off the bat then he's worth calling up right away.

I don't see why not.  People are pointing to Pettis, but I was never on that train.  Both Deebo and Hurd are better prospects than Pettis was IMO.  Garoppolo has to throw to someone other than Kittle.  Deebo is great after the catch and good at separating, same with Hurd.  Just depends on who builds chemistry the most I think.  That's probably the best outcome, a WR2 type of season, but it's possible.  Not a guy I'd feel comfortable with there, same as Samuel which is why I made that comparison, but there's a very real possibility they both produce WR2 seasons.  Assuming Garoppolo is good, which I'm not totally sold on yet. 

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