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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)

I agree. So much of dynasty evaluation has shifted toward young/on the rise players and projections of remaining production (all valid considerations to be sure) that 26-ish year old players — at positions like WR with typically good longevity — seem considered declining assets in more trade discussions than I remember in the past. 
It has been trending a little more this way every year for quite some time now.

I remember back when Adrian Peterson came out and it was heresy to even mention him in the same breath as then 28 year old Ladainian Tomlinson in startup drafts. 

Consider now a generational talent at RB like Peterson/Barkley coming out and being compared to Le'Veon Bell NEXT year (Bell is still "only" 27) and it would be the complete opposite.

 
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OBJ is especially easy to discount when looking at his value. Top 5 talent that hasn't finished back to back seasons and things look dicey for this year and possibly next, all while he hits 27 in a few weeks. For me, there's also some fallout from AB going cuckoo-bananas, too, and OBJ has had some of that diva drama surrounding him. (I don't expect that level of crazy but also won't ignore the possibility.) Compared to someone like Nuk having a down year in a still-good offense, who would command a deal more inline with a perceived top WR asset. 
Not so sure about this.  In my leagues Hopkins value has plummeted.  I have been laughed at with the following offers:

  • Hopkins for Gallup/2020 late 1st (10-12)/Bradley Chubb (told I was sniffing glue)
  • Hopkins for Chark/2021 1st (told he wouldn’t trade Chark straight up for Hopkins)
  • Hopkins/Johnathan Allen (contending team desperately needs DL)/Agholor for Ridley/2020 1st (likely 10-12)/2021 1st   (told I must be making a joke)
  • Hopkins for OBJ and their choice of Waller or Andrews (team also has Kelce) – told he would do OBJ straight up for Hopkins


Hopkins value is in the tank when you actually try and move him.  Those offers I think are in varying degrees of value.  Some I would consider full value and some a way underpay but all have been instantly rejected. 

 
Not so sure about this.  In my leagues Hopkins value has plummeted.  I have been laughed at with the following offers:

  • Hopkins for Gallup/2020 late 1st (10-12)/Bradley Chubb (told I was sniffing glue)
  • Hopkins for Chark/2021 1st (told he wouldn’t trade Chark straight up for Hopkins)
  • Hopkins/Johnathan Allen (contending team desperately needs DL)/Agholor for Ridley/2020 1st (likely 10-12)/2021 1st   (told I must be making a joke)
  • Hopkins for OBJ and their choice of Waller or Andrews (team also has Kelce) – told he would do OBJ straight up for Hopkins


Hopkins value is in the tank when you actually try and move him.  Those offers I think are in varying degrees of value.  Some I would consider full value and some a way underpay but all have been instantly rejected. 
Sounds like I need to put some offers out for Hopkins.

 
FF Ninja said:
I dropped Corey Davis this past week to pick up and start Malcolm Brown. Forced into it by injuries, byes, and timing of Thursday night game... but I don't really regret it, either.
If you dropped Davis and Brown was available then it sounds like this league has really shallow rosters. 
10 teams, Super flex, 22 man rosters, non PPR but points for first downs rushing/receiving, 56 RBs and 68 WRs currently rostered

I suppose that could be viewed as shallow. Without getting into a lot of detail, I wanted Brown due to confluence of factors, and had no one I preferred to release over Davis. My remaining WRs are Juju, Watkins, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, and Samuel, so obviously I value those guys higher than Davis.

 
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But I think Hopkins owners won't accept those low ball offers.  There seems to be a big hole between the value his owners see for him and the value others will pay for him. 
Right, he's kind of in that no man's land that assets get trapped in sometimes.  His owners still want full or near full value, but people buying want to buy at a discount, so he ends up just being a hold.

The opportunity to buy comes from the notion that his owners now may be willing to sell at fair value, as opposed to him just being off the table and untradeable even at equal value.  I don't think most are getting a big discount though in good leagues with strong FF owners.

 
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Just traded away Nuk in an FFPC league like some have mentioned here and my question earlier.  

I got Miles Sanders, Sutton, 1st in return.  Feels like a good return but a little risky.  Sutton had a breakout already and nobody talking about him.  

 
How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
 
I'm going to post some mid-season dynasty rankings in a week or so that I've been tinkering with.  As of now the order I have them ranked are as follows.

Hopkins, Godwin, Cooper, OBJ

Then you have 1.01 which depending on who you ask could be any number of different guys, I'd probably slot them in behind the 4 players right now, ask me in 4 months and I'd say ahead of OBJ for sure, maybe even Cooper.  

I honestly wouldn't hate the idea of Godwin being the startup draft WR1 though.  He's young enough and established himself, if you want a safe option I don't hate that idea.  I did the same with JuJu this past year as a long term staple.  

 
How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
 
Well, I probably will be different from what most others would do.

Hopkins - Great young QB, and Hopkins is ultra-talented. He's the sure-fire number 1 for me

1.01 - This draft class is just so good, having the 1.01 is a great place to be

OBJ - Him and Baker need to get their #### together. I'll give them more time, but not much more time.

Godwin/Cooper - I'm not super high on either guy, and I am just not sure why. They are both putting up great numbers, but there's something just stopping me from hopping on board. It may be that both may have new QB's soon. Godwin also has Evans there, and I'm not convinced that Evans is going to continue to take a back seat. Cooper just feels "fake" to me, like at any point he's going to revert back to a low end WR 2. I realize I am in the minority with these guys, and I'm probably missing out, but it B what it B.

 
Right, he's kind of in that no man's land that assets get trapped in sometimes.  His owners still want full or near full value, but people buying want to buy at a discount, so he ends up just being a hold.

The opportunity to buy comes from the notion that his owners now may be willing to sell at fair value, as opposed to him just being off the table and untradeable even at equal value.  I don't think most are getting a big discount though in good leagues with strong FF owners.
This is how I see it, as well. Those looking to acquire Nuk are looking at this season and thinking "buy low" but it's only 6 games and his target numbers are solid still so owners aren't selling cheap. 

 
How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
This pains me because I highly debated drafting Godwin in a couple leagues, but...

Godwin (23.6)
1.01 (21-22?)
Cooper (25.3)
Hopkins (27.4)
OBJ (27.0)

Probably not a popular list. I might be valuing age too much, but Godwin is crushing it and he's got one less target than Hopkins. I'd still have a hard time trading the 1.01 for him, but I don't have a shot at the 1.01 in any leagues so I won't really worry about that. Cooper is finally living up to his draft hype and is at an age where he can still improve a bit. Hopkins and OBJ are at their peak and they've got about 4 years of it left, but recency bias with AB has me scared about OBJ. I just don't know about his longevity (he's also been the most injury prone of all of them). Hopkins may not be as exciting with the ball and his stats might lag when he's not getting insane volume, but at least he's never in the news, so of the 27 year old WRs, he gets the nod.

 
How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
 
1. Hopkins. I think the current dip is temporary and he has the rare situation of being a proven stud paired with an elite QB

2. 1.01 - I'm mentally plugging in Jeudy here with the ppr and the WR-to-WR comparison in the question. I could also see, depending on landing spot, Lamb, Taylor, or Swift all fitting in as similar values here.

3. Godwin. I'm not sure I buy in 100% on Godwin over OBJ (my next ranking) but I perceive Godwin's market value to be higher right now given age and current season production. Plus people worry about OBJ's head, which isn't a concern for me personally. I do think Beckham gets a ding for durability. I'm not sure how to account for Evans. So far Godwin had been targeted 43 times to Evans's 27, and he's been more efficient. But Evans is still very good and signed through 2023  I believe.

4. OBJ. More of a 3b to Godwin at 3a for me. I have him in one league and can't say I feel that the future is as bright as the past was, but he still looks like a ridiculous talent to me. I think Mayfield will improve (enough anyway). The main question for me is durability. 

5. Cooper. Tied to Dak perhaps for the long term? They've had some chemistry and he's good, but somebody has to go at 5.

 
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I need to be sending out some offers for OBJ it looks like.

Melvin Gordon vs. 2020 1sts - where does he slot in?
I'm just one data point (no idea where popular opinion falls), but I would not trade a late 2020 1st for Gordon. Too many nice rookies out there, not that many landing spots... I just don't know what's ahead for him as a FA. He'll be 27 next year and I suspect he's one of the many RBs that just disappear after their age 28 season. As for his 2019 "rental" value, it seems pretty low right now with Ekeler taking so many snaps/targets. 

 
Right, he's kind of in that no man's land that assets get trapped in sometimes.  His owners still want full or near full value, but people buying want to buy at a discount, so he ends up just being a hold.
This is why I stopped doing Dynasty leagues a few years back honestly.  Not many moves to be made these days.

 
This is why I stopped doing Dynasty leagues a few years back honestly.  Not many moves to be made these days.


Um, I'm in leagues that have been around a pretty long time, and this isn't true at all. Depends on the owners and individual league, I guess. 

 
Um, I'm in leagues that have been around a pretty long time, and this isn't true at all. Depends on the owners and individual league, I guess. 
  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed

 
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  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed
Okay. I'm telling you not all leagues are like that. 

 
  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed
If you think picks are overvalued and vets are undervalued, then why aren't you just loading up on vets and winning your leagues over and over again?

 
  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed
In your league(s) maybe.  I am in 5 dynasty leagues and zero are like that.

 
Can I price check Le’Veon  Bell ? I’m contending in a 0.5ppr and have been offered ..

Bell and a 2020 2nd round pick ( mid most likely ) 

for 

2020 1st round pick ( late ) 

2021 1st round pick ( late barring disaster) 
 

an offer of less than 2 1st round picks seems good for Bell imo. Darnold is back and has other weapons - Anderson, Crowder, Herndon to keep the defence honest, schedule is good, bye is gone, Bell gets lots of receptions and is still only 27. 
 

Seems like good value to me, just thought I’d price check him here 
 

 
Can I price check Le’Veon  Bell ? I’m contending in a 0.5ppr and have been offered ..

Bell and a 2020 2nd round pick ( mid most likely ) 

for 

2020 1st round pick ( late ) 

2021 1st round pick ( late barring disaster) 
 

an offer of less than 2 1st round picks seems good for Bell imo. Darnold is back and has other weapons - Anderson, Crowder, Herndon to keep the defence honest, schedule is good, bye is gone, Bell gets lots of receptions and is still only 27. 
 

Seems like good value to me, just thought I’d price check him here 
It’s probably fair, but I would pass personally. This coming draft class feels a bit like the 2016 class, in terms of depth. Even late 1st round picks are going to be quite valuable. This might help you in the meantime, but will look bad come the offseason. 

 
  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed
This has been my experience this year, but I think it’s due to the draft class hype. I’ve gathered that Thielen, Mixon, Gordon and Diggs can’t return a first round pick in my leagues. 

 
Late 1st for Henry.

Adams is still a 2nd round startup pick, IMO. If I’m rebuilding I’d want something like Sutton and Chark, or to add a bit to DA for Godwin; maybe try for Juju plus. If I’m competing I’m probably holding onto him. 
No way Henry has more value than Adams in ANY league, let alone a PPR. 

 
Price check on David Johnson & Diggs in PPR?

DJ owner told me he'd take Diggs straight up for him. Not sure if good or bad deal for me. Start 2 RBs, 3 WR & 2 flex. I'm good at WR, but nothing behind D. Henry & Fournette... I'm also a competitor now so not in rebuild mode either.
Given the ppr, the fact that you’re strong at WR, and that you’re a competitor now I like DJ. 

 
In a no-cap superflex I had just 2 picks left for 2020 & 4 for 2021. It was a startup dynasty & I had to deal a lot of picks to fill out my roster due to accidentally spending 75% of my budget on 3/28 players. 

i lost Mahomes for a couple weeks (hopefully that’s all) and had BYEs coming up. Plus Brady is my QB2 & who really knows how much longer he’ll play. 

So I dealt my 2020 3rd & 4th (from another team with a bad record this year) and 2021 2nd + Larry Fitz for Derick Carr.

Carr owner had 4 QBs. Felt like a good time since TyWill is out & he wasn’t high on Carr to begin with. 

I figured he’d counter for more picks or maybe another player, but he accepted outright. 

hopefully that’ll bridge the gap until Mahomes comes back, and gives me one less headache for next year if  ready retires, assuming the Raiders stick with Carr. 

 
Price check on David Johnson & Diggs in PPR?

DJ owner told me he'd take Diggs straight up for him. Not sure if good or bad deal for me. Start 2 RBs, 3 WR & 2 flex. I'm good at WR, but nothing behind D. Henry & Fournette... I'm also a competitor now so not in rebuild mode either.
They’re pretty even. With those two RBs it wouldn’t hurt to get DJ.

selling high off Diggs big game, buying now on DJ’s sprained ankle.

if you’re indeed deep at WR that’s a great trade. Not without risk as DJ seems a little fragile, but I’d probably pull the trigger. 

 
Where do people see Corey Davis? Was offered Darrell Henderson for him in ppr. Ran a twitter poll and it came back 67/33% on favor of Davis...

 
Where do people see Corey Davis? Was offered Darrell Henderson for him in ppr. Ran a twitter poll and it came back 67/33% on favor of Davis...
I’m not sold, personally. Last week was promising - and there’s certainly potential there - but he hasn’t won me over yet. I think Henderson is in the same ballpark, in terms of value. I could see myself preferring either guy depending on my roster. In a vacuum I think Henderson is more likely to be a top 24 dynasty asset one day, while Davis is more likely to stick long term. If I’m in a position to gamble on upside, I’d go with Henderson. If my WR core is lacking, I’d probably play it safe with Davis.

 
I’m not sold, personally. Last week was promising - and there’s certainly potential there - but he hasn’t won me over yet. I think Henderson is in the same ballpark, in terms of value. I could see myself preferring either guy depending on my roster. In a vacuum I think Henderson is more likely to be a top 24 dynasty asset one day, while Davis is more likely to stick long term. If I’m in a position to gamble on upside, I’d go with Henderson. If my WR core is lacking, I’d probably play it safe with Davis.
As the guy who made the offer for Davis, I find myself very torn to be honest. Davis and I have such history where I bought in high in his rookie draft and held for a long, long time ... and finally punted this year. And it looked like the right decision until last week. Now I’m wondering if the problem really was Mariota or if that’s much too linear to be the actual solution. 
 

Like I said, I made that offer to @Dr. Dan and I’m still torn on it, to the point that I pulled it down to reconsider. I could’ve swayed either way. 

 
I’m not sold, personally. Last week was promising - and there’s certainly potential there - but he hasn’t won me over yet. I think Henderson is in the same ballpark, in terms of value. I could see myself preferring either guy depending on my roster. In a vacuum I think Henderson is more likely to be a top 24 dynasty asset one day, while Davis is more likely to stick long term. If I’m in a position to gamble on upside, I’d go with Henderson. If my WR core is lacking, I’d probably play it safe with Davis.
Henderson was extremely disappointing to the point where I'm considering selling where I own him while his value is still somewhat high. 

Davis' issue has been targets, where Mariota would target Walker and Humphries. Tannehill is targeting Davis and Brown, and results are much better. 

Davis' floor used to be 2 or 3 points (or a zero week 1). Now I think his floor is much improved if the targets continue to come. I am a playoff team and could probably use Davis more than Henderson, as he seems to be back to 3rd fiddle after Brown is healthy.

I've also always bought into the "have a strong wr group" for sustained dynasty success. RBs are so volatile and short term it doesnt make as much sense to have your absolute strength in rb. That proves to be holding true for my teams this year as I am strong at wr, hurting a bit at rb in different ways in each league, but finding great success. 

Davis has had a late break out, which calling this a breakout season is too early, but he is showing good signs when given volume. 

If he has another strong week I think its safe to say Mariota was the problem. Then hes a definite asset for me. 

 
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I think you could similarly argue the problem with Henderson is situation, not talent related. The Rams OL is awful. Getting pushed around by the Falcons is damning. 
 

He also has to wait for his opportunity behind Gurley who’s already missed one game with a “thigh” injury. I believe he’s passed Brown, though obviously opinions will vary there. Henderson has looked explosive when given space to run. I don’t think one game where neither Henderson or Gurley could move because of penetration through the middle is enough to write the ending to Henderson’s career. 

 
As the guy who made the offer for Davis, I find myself very torn to be honest. Davis and I have such history where I bought in high in his rookie draft and held for a long, long time ... and finally punted this year. And it looked like the right decision until last week. Now I’m wondering if the problem really was Mariota or if that’s much too linear to be the actual solution. 
 

Like I said, I made that offer to @Dr. Dan and I’m still torn on it, to the point that I pulled it down to reconsider. I could’ve swayed either way. 
I agree - the next week or two will tell us a lot about Davis (and Henderson). 

What did you find disappointing, @Dr. Dan? I watched both games and thought Henderson looked solid. Last week was bad for both of the backs as the offensive line was pretty bad. But to my eye Henderson looked better than Gurley. (Granted, I’m not sure what that’s worth at this point.)

I’ll likely try buying if Henderson owners are getting impatient. 

 
I am torn on Davis in the league where I have him.  I want to believe but I feel like this is one of those situations where Sunday evening we're all kicking rocks wondering why the hell we didn't finally sell high on him when there was a ray of hope like we kept telling ourselves we would.

 
Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)

Sutton (top 15 WR)

Godwin (top 3 WR)

Kupp (top 10 WR)

McLaurin (top 15 WR)

Andrews (top 5 TE)

Hooper (top 5 TE)

Waller (top 5 TE)

Jackson (top 3 QB)

Jacobs (top 10 RB)

 
Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)    Not quite...….buying top 30 WR

Sutton (top 15 WR)   Not quite...….Buying top 24 WR

Godwin (top 3 WR)  Not Buying top 3......I would go top 15 WR

Kupp (top 10 WR)  A little too high.  buying Top 15 WR

McLaurin (top 15 WR)   No ……...Buying Top 30 WR

Andrews (top 5 TE)  Buying

Hooper (top 5 TE)  Buying (but think more like top 8)

Waller (top 5 TE)  Buying

Jackson (top 3 QB)  Buying

Jacobs (top 10 RB)  Not quite......Buying top 15 RB

 
Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)

Sutton (top 15 WR)

Godwin (top 3 WR)

Kupp (top 10 WR)

McLaurin (top 15 WR)

Andrews (top 5 TE)

Hooper (top 5 TE)

Waller (top 5 TE)

Jackson (top 3 QB)

Jacobs (top 10 RB)
Top15 for Chark?  No chance I'm buying that high.  Nice breakout, but I need more from that offense in general to trust a top15 guy.

Sutton same case, good breakout, he's undervalued in a lot of place, but Flacco leaves a lot to be desired

Godwin, absolutely buying him sustaining that value

Kupp, maybe?  I don't hate the idea of top10, I have him just outside (WR11) but that seems a bit questionable if teams keep showing ways to stop the Rams in general

Top15 for McLaurin is another I don't believe in.  Like the player a lot, love what I've seen, buy high now, wait a year and maybe you get something out of it when Guice and Haskins are there to improve the overall team.  How does Washington not address WR more in 2020 though?

Andrews, not buying.  He disappears too often for me to say top5 but he's close.  

Hooper, I'll buy that.  Hooper joins Kittle, Kelce, Engram, and Henry as the top5 dynasty TE's. 

Waller, not buying.  Waller just on the outside looking in.  

Jackson as a top3 QB?  I just can't force myself to buy it.  Steelers fan here, guilty.  My bias is showing.

Jacobs is a top10 RB in dynasty, for now.  2020 is when a few rookies push him down a little.  

 
Are you buying or selling the sustainability of these breakouts? Proposed dynasty value in (). 

Chark (top 15 WR)

Sutton (top 15 WR)

Godwin (top 3 WR)

Kupp (top 10 WR)

McLaurin (top 15 WR)

Andrews (top 5 TE)

Hooper (top 5 TE)

Waller (top 5 TE)

Jackson (top 3 QB)

Jacobs (top 10 RB)
If I could legitimately get those prices, I would sell most of those players at that dynasty value you listed. 

 
My Ebron ind te (2yrs)

His Eifert (1yr) plus 3rd round pick.

I'm at 2-5 and basically am trying to stockpile as many dart throws as possible.

 
If I could legitimately get those prices, I would sell most of those players at that dynasty value you listed. 
I think those are about the prices you'd have to pay to acquire these guys right now. Top 15 sounds really high for the WRs, but take a look at the names in that range - Diggs, Thielen, Cooks, Hilton, Golladay, Lockett - I'd take Chark and Sutton over some of those guys. (I haven't done my homework yet on McLaurin.)

To answer my own question, I'd buy Godwin, Sutton, all 3 TEs, Jackson, and Jacobs at those prices.

 

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