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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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Honestly I would be surprised if someone is willing to give up Godwin/2nd for OBJ/1st at this point, but it never hurts to ask.

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5 hours ago, Zyphros said:

If you were a middle of the road team, not much of a chance at playoffs due to some injuries, would you consider your OBJ for Godwin?  Personally I think Godwin has made a great case for top5 dynasty WR consideration by now.  Is it worth it to go 3 years younger and get Godwin on what seems to be a better offense, although with long term questions.  

As a Godwin owner I don't know if I'm trading him for anything that doesn't include an early first plus a quality player.

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On 9/25/2019 at 9:32 PM, Johnny B. Goode said:

Am I missing something...? I realize that no one is paying what Corey Davis is worth on any trade calculator/value chart, but i just had Davis for Chris Thompson declined, from a team who will not make the playoffs but isnt one of the top 3 worst teams (thanks to zeke). 

That's crazy to me... I would at least take a shot for a 28 year old oft-injured-soon-to-be-FA RB... :shrug:. Maybe I'm nuts idk. This league has 28 man rosters...

ETA: He also only has 1 draft pick (1st rd) but has major jeeds at every position. 

 

/rant

I dropped Corey Davis this past week to pick up and start Malcolm Brown. Forced into it by injuries, byes, and timing of Thursday night game... but I don't really regret it, either.

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16 hours ago, Arodin said:

Yes, I think this would be worth considering.

I'm becoming increasingly wary of elite WRs shelf-life, thanks to AB.  OBJ could start down that road.  Godwin is a few years away from the sort of contract likely to trigger receiver-neuroses.

Next year will be the final year of his rookie contract, right? And this will be the first off-season he's allowed to talk contract at all (after the first three years of his rookie deal).

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8 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I dropped Corey Davis this past week to pick up and start Malcolm Brown. Forced into it by injuries, byes, and timing of Thursday night game... but I don't really regret it, either.

If you dropped Davis and Brown was available then it sounds like this league has really shallow rosters. 

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9 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

Price check on James Conner please.

Been offered Golladay. 

Smash accept. 

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39 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

Price check on James Conner please.

Been offered Golladay. 

 take it an run imo. top 15 foundation WR it seems like, once you cross out the old guys who are fading out

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D. Hopkins value check in PPR?

I think this was way too low, but got offered Ertz, Goedert & Tyrell Williams for him. TE is my weak spot, but Ty does nothing for me. He has Chark & OBJ & said he won't move them lol.

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8 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

D. Hopkins value check in PPR?

I think this was way too low, but got offered Ertz, Goedert & Tyrell Williams for him. TE is my weak spot, but Ty does nothing for me. He has Chark & OBJ & said he won't move them lol.

That’s an abysmal offer. 

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How would you compare Miles Sanders to Melvin Gordon in terms of value?  Is Melvin still easily ahead, or does he need a prove it game to recoup the value he lost.  

Reason I ask is because there's a compete now team I offered Gordon to, tried to get Sanders and 2 2nd's.  Says he won't do it even straight up.  Seems a little crazy to me.  Maybe after a good Melvin game somewhere?  

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20 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

How would you compare Miles Sanders to Melvin Gordon in terms of value?  Is Melvin still easily ahead, or does he need a prove it game to recoup the value he lost.  

Reason I ask is because there's a compete now team I offered Gordon to, tried to get Sanders and 2 2nd's.  Says he won't do it even straight up.  Seems a little crazy to me.  Maybe after a good Melvin game somewhere?  

People are nuts over Sanders. I don't understand it personally. 

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Piggybacking off of @Zyphros question about OBJ, how are people with rebuilding teams viewing him? If you have him, do you see him as a key piece of your rebuild (assuming, say a 2-year window on the rebuild)? Or is he a sell for a top 15-ish younger WR plus an additional piece (just as an example)? I have him on a rebuilding team that places a premium on WRs and I've had a variety of reactions to him: his best days are behind him vs. he's still a foundation-type WR1 (or something in between).

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2 minutes ago, DAG said:

Piggybacking off of @Zyphros question about OBJ, how are people with rebuilding teams viewing him? If you have him, do you see him as a key piece of your rebuild (assuming, say a 2-year window on the rebuild)? Or is he a sell for a top 15-ish younger WR plus an additional piece (just as an example)? I have him on a rebuilding team that places a premium on WRs and I've had a variety of reactions to him: his best days are behind him vs. he's still a foundation-type WR1 (or something in between).

He’s still a top 3 dynasty WR for me.  The Browns O-line is a mess, Baker has been a bit shaky, and they’ve had a rough start, but I don’t see what would lead one to believe OBJ’s best days are behind him.

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On 10/14/2019 at 11:33 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

Honestly I would be surprised if someone is willing to give up Godwin/2nd for OBJ/1st at this point, but it never hurts to ask.

I agree it’s easy to discuss “dynasty value” here in this vacuum, but in reality this would be a move a “win now” team would make. Why would a “win now” team be interested in downgrading in actual production let alone give away a first round pick to do so. With how fickle people are in dynasty, I’d bet most wouldn’t even accept OBJ for Godwin straight up.

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41 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

With how fickle people are in dynasty, I’d bet most wouldn’t even accept OBJ for Godwin straight up.

I agree. So much of dynasty evaluation has shifted toward young/on the rise players and projections of remaining production (all valid considerations to be sure) that 26-ish year old players — at positions like WR with typically good longevity — seem considered declining assets in more trade discussions than I remember in the past. 

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OBJ is especially easy to discount when looking at his value. Top 5 talent that hasn't finished back to back seasons and things look dicey for this year and possibly next, all while he hits 27 in a few weeks. For me, there's also some fallout from AB going cuckoo-bananas, too, and OBJ has had some of that diva drama surrounding him. (I don't expect that level of crazy but also won't ignore the possibility.) Compared to someone like Nuk having a down year in a still-good offense, who would command a deal more inline with a perceived top WR asset. 

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15 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

D. Hopkins value check in PPR?

I think this was way too low, but got offered Ertz, Goedert & Tyrell Williams for him. TE is my weak spot, but Ty does nothing for me. He has Chark & OBJ & said he won't move them lol.

I was told by the Chark owner last week that he wouldn't trade Chark straight up for Hopkins.  I had offered Hopkins for Chark & 1st (Salary cap league with Hopkins at $49 and Chark at $5).

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2 hours ago, DAG said:

I agree. So much of dynasty evaluation has shifted toward young/on the rise players and projections of remaining production (all valid considerations to be sure) that 26-ish year old players — at positions like WR with typically good longevity — seem considered declining assets in more trade discussions than I remember in the past. 

It has been trending a little more this way every year for quite some time now.

I remember back when Adrian Peterson came out and it was heresy to even mention him in the same breath as then 28 year old Ladainian Tomlinson in startup drafts. 

Consider now a generational talent at RB like Peterson/Barkley coming out and being compared to Le'Veon Bell NEXT year (Bell is still "only" 27) and it would be the complete opposite.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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1 hour ago, Flying Elvis said:

OBJ is especially easy to discount when looking at his value. Top 5 talent that hasn't finished back to back seasons and things look dicey for this year and possibly next, all while he hits 27 in a few weeks. For me, there's also some fallout from AB going cuckoo-bananas, too, and OBJ has had some of that diva drama surrounding him. (I don't expect that level of crazy but also won't ignore the possibility.) Compared to someone like Nuk having a down year in a still-good offense, who would command a deal more inline with a perceived top WR asset. 

Not so sure about this.  In my leagues Hopkins value has plummeted.  I have been laughed at with the following offers:

 

  • Hopkins for Gallup/2020 late 1st (10-12)/Bradley Chubb (told I was sniffing glue)
  • Hopkins for Chark/2021 1st (told he wouldn’t trade Chark straight up for Hopkins)
  • Hopkins/Johnathan Allen (contending team desperately needs DL)/Agholor for Ridley/2020 1st (likely 10-12)/2021 1st   (told I must be making a joke)
  • Hopkins for OBJ and their choice of Waller or Andrews (team also has Kelce) – told he would do OBJ straight up for Hopkins

 

Hopkins value is in the tank when you actually try and move him.  Those offers I think are in varying degrees of value.  Some I would consider full value and some a way underpay but all have been instantly rejected. 

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35 minutes ago, Gally said:

Not so sure about this.  In my leagues Hopkins value has plummeted.  I have been laughed at with the following offers:

 

  • Hopkins for Gallup/2020 late 1st (10-12)/Bradley Chubb (told I was sniffing glue)
  • Hopkins for Chark/2021 1st (told he wouldn’t trade Chark straight up for Hopkins)
  • Hopkins/Johnathan Allen (contending team desperately needs DL)/Agholor for Ridley/2020 1st (likely 10-12)/2021 1st   (told I must be making a joke)
  • Hopkins for OBJ and their choice of Waller or Andrews (team also has Kelce) – told he would do OBJ straight up for Hopkins

 

Hopkins value is in the tank when you actually try and move him.  Those offers I think are in varying degrees of value.  Some I would consider full value and some a way underpay but all have been instantly rejected. 

Sounds like I need to put some offers out for Hopkins.

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1 minute ago, kutta said:

Sounds like I need to put some offers out for Hopkins.

But I think Hopkins owners won't accept those low ball offers.  There seems to be a big hole between the value his owners see for him and the value others will pay for him. 

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20 hours ago, FF Ninja said:
On 10/15/2019 at 7:41 AM, Just Win Baby said:

I dropped Corey Davis this past week to pick up and start Malcolm Brown. Forced into it by injuries, byes, and timing of Thursday night game... but I don't really regret it, either.

If you dropped Davis and Brown was available then it sounds like this league has really shallow rosters. 

10 teams, Super flex, 22 man rosters, non PPR but points for first downs rushing/receiving, 56 RBs and 68 WRs currently rostered

I suppose that could be viewed as shallow. Without getting into a lot of detail, I wanted Brown due to confluence of factors, and had no one I preferred to release over Davis. My remaining WRs are Juju, Watkins, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, and Samuel, so obviously I value those guys higher than Davis.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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37 minutes ago, Gally said:

But I think Hopkins owners won't accept those low ball offers.  There seems to be a big hole between the value his owners see for him and the value others will pay for him. 

Right, he's kind of in that no man's land that assets get trapped in sometimes.  His owners still want full or near full value, but people buying want to buy at a discount, so he ends up just being a hold.

The opportunity to buy comes from the notion that his owners now may be willing to sell at fair value, as opposed to him just being off the table and untradeable even at equal value.  I don't think most are getting a big discount though in good leagues with strong FF owners.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Just traded away Nuk in an FFPC league like some have mentioned here and my question earlier.  

I got Miles Sanders, Sutton, 1st in return.  Feels like a good return but a little risky.  Sutton had a breakout already and nobody talking about him.  

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How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
 

Edited by Concept Coop

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1 minute ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
 

I'm going to post some mid-season dynasty rankings in a week or so that I've been tinkering with.  As of now the order I have them ranked are as follows.

Hopkins, Godwin, Cooper, OBJ

Then you have 1.01 which depending on who you ask could be any number of different guys, I'd probably slot them in behind the 4 players right now, ask me in 4 months and I'd say ahead of OBJ for sure, maybe even Cooper.  

I honestly wouldn't hate the idea of Godwin being the startup draft WR1 though.  He's young enough and established himself, if you want a safe option I don't hate that idea.  I did the same with JuJu this past year as a long term staple.  

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11 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
 

Well, I probably will be different from what most others would do.

Hopkins - Great young QB, and Hopkins is ultra-talented. He's the sure-fire number 1 for me

1.01 - This draft class is just so good, having the 1.01 is a great place to be

OBJ - Him and Baker need to get their #### together. I'll give them more time, but not much more time.

Godwin/Cooper - I'm not super high on either guy, and I am just not sure why. They are both putting up great numbers, but there's something just stopping me from hopping on board. It may be that both may have new QB's soon. Godwin also has Evans there, and I'm not convinced that Evans is going to continue to take a back seat. Cooper just feels "fake" to me, like at any point he's going to revert back to a low end WR 2. I realize I am in the minority with these guys, and I'm probably missing out, but it B what it B.

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2 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Right, he's kind of in that no man's land that assets get trapped in sometimes.  His owners still want full or near full value, but people buying want to buy at a discount, so he ends up just being a hold.

The opportunity to buy comes from the notion that his owners now may be willing to sell at fair value, as opposed to him just being off the table and untradeable even at equal value.  I don't think most are getting a big discount though in good leagues with strong FF owners.

This is how I see it, as well. Those looking to acquire Nuk are looking at this season and thinking "buy low" but it's only 6 games and his target numbers are solid still so owners aren't selling cheap. 

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41 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01

This pains me because I highly debated drafting Godwin in a couple leagues, but...

Godwin (23.6)
1.01 (21-22?)
Cooper (25.3)
Hopkins (27.4)
OBJ (27.0)

Probably not a popular list. I might be valuing age too much, but Godwin is crushing it and he's got one less target than Hopkins. I'd still have a hard time trading the 1.01 for him, but I don't have a shot at the 1.01 in any leagues so I won't really worry about that. Cooper is finally living up to his draft hype and is at an age where he can still improve a bit. Hopkins and OBJ are at their peak and they've got about 4 years of it left, but recency bias with AB has me scared about OBJ. I just don't know about his longevity (he's also been the most injury prone of all of them). Hopkins may not be as exciting with the ball and his stats might lag when he's not getting insane volume, but at least he's never in the news, so of the 27 year old WRs, he gets the nod.

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4 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

How would you rank these assets in PPR, 1x QB leagues?

Hopkins
OBJ
Cooper
Godwin
1.01
 

1. Hopkins. I think the current dip is temporary and he has the rare situation of being a proven stud paired with an elite QB

2. 1.01 - I'm mentally plugging in Jeudy here with the ppr and the WR-to-WR comparison in the question. I could also see, depending on landing spot, Lamb, Taylor, or Swift all fitting in as similar values here.

3. Godwin. I'm not sure I buy in 100% on Godwin over OBJ (my next ranking) but I perceive Godwin's market value to be higher right now given age and current season production. Plus people worry about OBJ's head, which isn't a concern for me personally. I do think Beckham gets a ding for durability. I'm not sure how to account for Evans. So far Godwin had been targeted 43 times to Evans's 27, and he's been more efficient. But Evans is still very good and signed through 2023  I believe.

4. OBJ. More of a 3b to Godwin at 3a for me. I have him in one league and can't say I feel that the future is as bright as the past was, but he still looks like a ridiculous talent to me. I think Mayfield will improve (enough anyway). The main question for me is durability. 

5. Cooper. Tied to Dak perhaps for the long term? They've had some chemistry and he's good, but somebody has to go at 5.

Edited by DAG
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I need to be sending out some offers for OBJ it looks like.

Melvin Gordon vs. 2020 1sts - where does he slot in?

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26 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I need to be sending out some offers for OBJ it looks like.

Melvin Gordon vs. 2020 1sts - where does he slot in?

I'm just one data point (no idea where popular opinion falls), but I would not trade a late 2020 1st for Gordon. Too many nice rookies out there, not that many landing spots... I just don't know what's ahead for him as a FA. He'll be 27 next year and I suspect he's one of the many RBs that just disappear after their age 28 season. As for his 2019 "rental" value, it seems pretty low right now with Ekeler taking so many snaps/targets. 

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3 hours ago, Hankmoody said:

I need to be sending out some offers for OBJ it looks like.

Melvin Gordon vs. 2020 1sts - where does he slot in?

Middle first I would say. Maybe I’ve bought into this being great class too much and don’t like Gordon enough though.

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On 10/16/2019 at 12:19 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

Right, he's kind of in that no man's land that assets get trapped in sometimes.  His owners still want full or near full value, but people buying want to buy at a discount, so he ends up just being a hold.

This is why I stopped doing Dynasty leagues a few years back honestly.  Not many moves to be made these days.

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5 minutes ago, PIK95 said:

This is why I stopped doing Dynasty leagues a few years back honestly.  Not many moves to be made these days.

 

Um, I'm in leagues that have been around a pretty long time, and this isn't true at all. Depends on the owners and individual league, I guess. 

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42 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 

Um, I'm in leagues that have been around a pretty long time, and this isn't true at all. Depends on the owners and individual league, I guess. 

  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed

Edited by PIK95

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18 minutes ago, PIK95 said:

  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed

Okay. I'm telling you not all leagues are like that. 

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35 minutes ago, PIK95 said:

  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed

If you think picks are overvalued and vets are undervalued, then why aren't you just loading up on vets and winning your leagues over and over again?

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43 minutes ago, PIK95 said:

  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed

In your league(s) maybe.  I am in 5 dynasty leagues and zero are like that.

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Can I price check Le’Veon  Bell ? I’m contending in a 0.5ppr and have been offered ..

Bell and a 2020 2nd round pick ( mid most likely ) 

 

for 

2020 1st round pick ( late ) 

2021 1st round pick ( late barring disaster) 
 

an offer of less than 2 1st round picks seems good for Bell imo. Darnold is back and has other weapons - Anderson, Crowder, Herndon to keep the defence honest, schedule is good, bye is gone, Bell gets lots of receptions and is still only 27. 
 

Seems like good value to me, just thought I’d price check him here 
 

 

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49 minutes ago, TartanLion said:

Can I price check Le’Veon  Bell ? I’m contending in a 0.5ppr and have been offered ..

Bell and a 2020 2nd round pick ( mid most likely ) 

for 

2020 1st round pick ( late ) 

2021 1st round pick ( late barring disaster) 
 

an offer of less than 2 1st round picks seems good for Bell imo. Darnold is back and has other weapons - Anderson, Crowder, Herndon to keep the defence honest, schedule is good, bye is gone, Bell gets lots of receptions and is still only 27. 
 

Seems like good value to me, just thought I’d price check him here 

It’s probably fair, but I would pass personally. This coming draft class feels a bit like the 2016 class, in terms of depth. Even late 1st round picks are going to be quite valuable. This might help you in the meantime, but will look bad come the offseason. 

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11 hours ago, PIK95 said:

  You missed the point.  When I was first doing mfl Dynasty leagues it was great.  Everyone would be open to making deals and having fun.  But then it seemed to change and good solid vets were basically worthless.

   All the rookies and draft picks were crazy overvalued and were all that anyone wanted.  Of course nobody wanted to give away studs for cheap so there would be tons of talks but nothing would happen.  That's why I got out.  It was like a job with the grind.  

I traded Mike Vick for FOUR rookie draft picks in a league when he was just getting going. Three years later you couldn't get ONE high rookie pick for a solid vet.   It changed

This has been my experience this year, but I think it’s due to the draft class hype. I’ve gathered that Thielen, Mixon, Gordon and Diggs can’t return a first round pick in my leagues. 

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6 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I am trying to move D. Adams and/or D. Henry in PPR at this point. Price check?

Late 1st for Henry.

Adams is still a 2nd round startup pick, IMO. If I’m rebuilding I’d want something like Sutton and Chark, or to add a bit to DA for Godwin; maybe try for Juju plus. If I’m competing I’m probably holding onto him. 

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3 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Late 1st for Henry.

Adams is still a 2nd round startup pick, IMO. If I’m rebuilding I’d want something like Sutton and Chark, or to add a bit to DA for Godwin; maybe try for Juju plus. If I’m competing I’m probably holding onto him. 

No way Henry has more value than Adams in ANY league, let alone a PPR. 

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1 minute ago, Ray Barboni said:

No way Henry has more value than Adams in ANY league, let alone a PPR. 

2nd round startup pick > late 1st round rookie pick 

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40 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Late 1st for Henry.

 

Don't think you'll find many people trading him for just a late 1st.

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Just now, Jello_Biafra said:

Don't think you'll find many people trading him for just a late 1st.

You could be right, in general. I'd trade him for a late 1st if I owned him, however.

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