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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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Posted (edited)

I’m surprised with how high everyone has Dissly in these rankings.  He’s been in the league two years and has had a significant injury each year.  Add to that the emergence of Hollister and I have a hard time ranking him out of the bottom 3. 

Edited by Boone22

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1 hour ago, Mr. Peterson said:

I think you’re too low on Irv Smith.  Are you just not a believer? 

I'll justify those ahead of Irv.

Higbee had an impressive stretch to end the year, he looked legit. 

Dissly seemed to have quite the start to the year.  Will was largely considered not very athletic so I hope he can come back from achilles more than someone that is strictly athletic or plays athletic position.  I oftentimes think that position switch is overblown, but Dissly switched from DE to TE his freshman year of college so he still may be learning somethings at the position.  I like him to come back strong next year.

J. Smith seemed very explosive and I liked what I saw after D. Walker went down.  I think J. smith is TE1 for the Titans next year and that offense looks to have turned around in a big way.

Irv seemed to flash here and there.  Rudolph is signed through 2023 and realistically will be on roster through 2021 season, unless Vikings willing to take 5.8 mill cap hit next year or 4.3 mill cap hit 2021. I like Irv to eventually be starter, but those above have track to be TE1 on their team next year.  

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1 hour ago, Denver724 said:

I would put Irv and Ian over Jonnu. Maybe even Gerald. 

Gerald over Jonnu?  

Jonnu was TE 14 last 8 weeks of season.  

Gerald was TE48, but he missed 3 weeks due to injury so he would be higher, but not at the level of Jonnu.  I also think Higbee is the TE to own on rams and Jonnu is starter next year for Titans.

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1 hour ago, Boone22 said:

I’m surprised with how high everyone has Dissly in these rankings.  He’s been in the league two years and has had a significant injury each year.  Add to that the emergence of Hollister and I have a hard time ranking him out of the bottom 3. 

He hasn't played many games but he was really good when he did. He has a great QB who loved throwing to him in the red zone. He's expected to be ready to go by the start of next year. He's 23 years old. 

His injuries have dropped him down to the right tier IMO. There are many reasonably young prospects at TE who have long lists of pros and cons, as this discussion is showing. Maybe Dissly won't be the same after his two injuries. If he is, though, he could be really good for a long time. 

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Personally for me that group goes like this:

Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, Irv Smith, Higbee, Dissly, Everett, Hurst

Judging by a lot of the responses I'm in the minority here though.  

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Personally for me that group goes like this:

Jonnu Smith, Ian Thomas, Irv Smith, Higbee, Dissly, Everett, Hurst

Judging by a lot of the responses I'm in the minority here though.  

I just don't really think it matters very much in practical terms.  If there's a guy you like the most, put him at the top of the list.  Ask six different guys and you may end up with six different TEs at the top.

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I have guys like Dissly and Higbee way ahead of the rest.  Maybe Irv nearby but the rest way behind.

I'm not sure why people are so quick to disregard Higbee as having just benefitted from opportunity with the Everett injury while at the same time ignoring that Jonnu and Ian Thomas had the same opportunity and farted with it.

I get the reason to have a little optimism around guys like Jonnu and Thomas with their athletic profile and the occasional flash but we see 10 of those guys every year.  I'd rather have the relatively young guys that have actually produced as top 5 TEs for a decent stretch.  I haven't run the numbers but I would guess those guys stick at a much higher rate.

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Posted (edited)

By 2019 overall PFF grade: Higbee, Dissly, Everett, Hurst, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith, Thomas

By 2018-19 receiving DYAR: Higbee, Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Hurst, Everett, Thomas, Irv Smith

By my formulaic TE projections formula: Hurst, Irv Smith, Dissly, Higbee, Thomas, tie between Everett & Jonnu Smith

By 2018-19 receiving yards: Higbee, Everett, Jonnu Smith, Hurst, Thomas, Dissly, Irv Smith

By 2018-19 receiving YPT: Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Higbee, Hurst, Everett, Irv Smith, Thomas

All of these comparisons are somewhat unfair to Irv Smith since he's just a rookie. A big part of the case for Irv Smith (and to a lesser extent Hurst) is based on draft position or what you thought of them coming into the league.

Edited by ZWK
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On 1/9/2020 at 6:42 AM, wgoldsph said:

Wouldn't give him up for less than multiple firsts

1.02 and 1.06?

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12 hours ago, Shrugs said:

1.02 and 1.06?

Right now I'm staying pat.  2 will get you one of the top rb who'll be starting, but it probably won't be the one I want (swift) and 5 on seems like where the draft starts to lose any sort of consensus.

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Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

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2 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

Personally I wouldn't do it, but I expect his value to be a little bit more than the 1.01.  I'd rather have 1.01 but I'm a little low on Tyreek Hill.  

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2 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

Don't know but he got traded in an FFPC league of mine last night along with throw in Big Ben and brought back Austin Hooper,  1.8,  4.8, 2021 second and Baker Mayfield.  I would take 1.1 over what he got back but if you believe in Hooper I think it's easy to see that as equitable value to the 1.1.

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On 1/4/2020 at 3:38 PM, Zyphros said:

Rank these TE's for their future dynasty value

Gerald Everett, Tyler Higbee, Ian Thomas, Jonnu Smith, Irv Smith Jr, Hayden Hurst, Will Dissly

All of them showed off a little this year at times, all are basically 26 or younger (except Higbee who is 27), and all are potential breakout's next year.  

I only play one league that is not TE premium so I tend to look at TE's in that 1.5 PPR prism. So saying that I tend to value players I project as more reception then TD based.

 

Tier one:

Irv Smith- his ability blows everyone on this list away IMO.  Rudolph might be in his way for another year, long term QB concerns with Cousins in last year of deal but his talent is worth the wait if it necessary and he won't even turn 22 until training camp.

Higbee- yes Everett was coming on and took an injury to him for Higbee to explode and that should not be totally ignored(otherwise he'd easily top this list). But they extended him handsomely well before he broke out,  hard to ignore production and Goff seemed to put more trust in him then I ever saw him put in Everett and probably plenty of room for both of them next year because I expect two TE sets to be more of the norm next year for the Rams.

Ian Thomas- Totally different kind of athlete then Irv but in somewhat similar situation with older TE in his way and QB in last year of his deal.  But I feel odds of Olsen retiring are more likely then not.   Also this caught my eye last week when Bieniemy interviewed for the Panthers job and in the interview he reportedly had laid out a plan for Cam and mentioned his excitement working with CMC, DJ Moore and Ian Thomas.   The fact a potential head coach is invoking Thomas name with just those other two as players he is excited to work with was kind of eye opening. Of course he did not get the job but still eye opening. The guy who got the job had a brief stint with Saints and way they use TE's is great. Not sure how much of the "Saints" offense that Brady will run but hard not to think it's a major influence on him.

Tier two:

Dissly- Just injuries move him down this list. If he's healthy he should be a tier one and he should make a full recovery but hard to just ignore two significant season ending injuries and impact it might eventually have on him.

Tier 3:

Everett- he flashed but seems blocked for relevant fantasy success in 2020 due to Higbee and WR depth on Rams. Can't see Rams paying him and Higbee after 2020, so one way or another things should eventually open up for him but might have to wait it out another year, maybe. I did say earlier I anticipate Rams running more 12 personnel next year so might be room for him and Higbee but I'd not be shocked if Rams entertained trade offers for him either. Maybe you are thinking if Rams are going to run more 12 personnel why would they trade him? Fair question but a lot of teams need TE help, this draft class is thin at TE and as we know they take time to develop anyway. Already mentioned he is in last year of his deal and they can't pay both him and Higbee.  Combine that with Rams lack of draft picks and need to address some holes it's possible if they get the right offer and feel comfortable with someone like Mundt as second TE.

Tier 4:

 

Jonnu-he's been the starting TE for most of the last two years so it's not like he's not been given a chance to break out. Great athlete, better real life player then fantasy player however.  Just does not get used enough and I don't think its' because of poor scheme. He's just more athlete then receiver. He's a great red zone threat, 5 targets on the year in red zone with 5 catches, 2 TD's and 3 first downs. But especially in 1.5 PPR type league I want a TE who is more involved and I think his route running and feel for where to attack zone coverage is sorely lacking and thus I think his potential to ever get much volume is super low.

Tier 5:

 

Hurst: zero value relative to roster size unless Andrews goes down or he gets traded. I did hear rumors of Ravens including him in trade offers near this past deadline  but just rumors I'm not sure had legs but because of that I grabbed him off some waiver wires last week or two of the season in some leagues just in case he gets dealt. If not, he's an easy cut for me.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

 Austin Hooper,  1.8,  4.8, 2021 second and Baker Mayfield.  I would take 1.1 over what he got back but if you believe in Hooper I think it's easy to see that as equitable value to the 1.1.

I guess I'm not a believer because I don't see any way that is equitable value.

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20 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Tier 5:

Hurst: zero value relative to roster size unless Andrews goes down or he gets traded. I did hear rumors of Ravens including him in trade offers near this past deadline  but just rumors I'm not sure had legs but because of that I grabbed him off some waiver wires last week or two of the season in some leagues just in case he gets dealt. If not, he's an easy cut for me.

Funny, I caught something on the ESPN live broadcast when it was minutes before the trade deadline.  They were expecting more manuevers and commented about Hurst being "available" but the source never indicated what Balt was after (run stuffing DL was announcers guess?)  I know Hurst was highly valued when first drafted, but that has long passed due to injuries and the emergence of the Running Game & Andrews.  

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4 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

I would rather have the 1.01 but then I feel the sins of the past are never forgotten and too often repeated (thus removing all your value).  

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4 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

I can't believe this is a question. Then I read above posters would take the 1.01. Guess I'm way off on this, I wouldn't take 2 1.01's for Tyreek.  

Edited by cloppbeast
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30 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I guess I'm not a believer because I don't see any way that is equitable value.

I'm not either but Hooper outscored Hill in PPG last year so if you believe this is not a fluke or he's close I would think getting 1.8, a second, and hope Baker turns out it around is equitable.

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15 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

I would rather have the 1.01 but then I feel the sins of the past are never forgotten and too often repeated (thus removing all your value).  

I lean on Hill over the 1.1 right now and would look at this way.

  Comparing him to my top two Wr's,  Juedy and Lamb,  with as much as I like those two WR's with the high bust rate of top drafted WR's in both fantasy and real life just no way can I trade a proven soon to be 26 year old for unproven WR talent.

So then I would have to look only way I'd trade Hill for 1.1 was to draft a RB. I like a lot of RB's in this draft, it's deep. Today I would take Swift at 1.1 if I was OTC.  But I don't see a RB right now that just blows me away as can't miss or on par with what Hill can provide my teams next few years  so unless my team was just desperate as hell for RB I'd not trade Hill for a chance to draft a RB at 1.1 until the NFL draft was over and I knew exactly who I was trading Hill to draft.

Now saying all that I got one concern on Hill. He's just going to be 26 and next few years should be glorious but I do worry about a guy whose entire game is based on speed falling off a cliff in a hurry when he starts to slow down. So I'll probably look to move him in next year or so on some teams but not yet.

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5 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

He’s certainly worth that, and unless I was in a 2QB league and really hurting at QB it would take more than that for me to move him. 

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5 hours ago, Spike said:

Is Tyreek Hill worth the 1.01 in a PPR league?

I would move tyreek for the 1.01 in a heartbeat. He's too volatile for me. I'd rather have a shot at a stud rb. 

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Not sure why people are ignoring that Hill really had a "just ok" year this year.  He had the monstrous year last year but that was alongside Mahomes' insane 50 TD year that Mahomes likely won't repeat often if ever.

Hill's 16 game pace this year was 77-1146-9 which is solid, but you can get those kind of numbers out of Allen Robinson or Tyler Lockett.   He put up basically those same numbers in 2017.

Obviously Hill's upside is massive and we can talk about some off and on injuries with him and Mahomes this year, but this is football that kind of stuff is going to happen.  Great player, but it's not like this is Michael Thomas we are talking about here.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Not sure why people are ignoring that Hill really had a "just ok" year this year.  He had the monstrous year last year but that was alongside Mahomes' insane 50 TD year that he likely won't repeat often if ever.

Hill's 16 game pace this year was 77-1146-9 which is solid, but you can get those kind of numbers out of Allen Robinson or Tyler Lockett.   He put up basically those same numbers in 2017.

Obviously Hill's upside is massive and we can talk about some off and on injuries with him and Mahomes this year, but this is football that kind of stuff is going to happen.  Great player, but it's not like this is Michael Thomas we are talking about here.

Well said!  But KC has added more weapons .. like Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson while Kelce & Watkins are available too.  So maybe Hills overall Targets are taking the hit?!? 

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31 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Well said!  But KC has added more weapons .. like Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson while Kelce & Watkins are available too.  So maybe Hills overall Targets are taking the hit?!? 

The only player added was Mecole Hardman and he didn't have a huge role in the offense - like FreeBaGel said it was most just a case of Mahomes regressing to the mean as most people that understand statistics saw coming to some extent. Hill is a tremendous talent but those 2018 numbers will be hard to replicate often. 2017 and 2019 (pace) is more likely the norm - and that's still pretty good. 

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On 1/10/2020 at 1:42 AM, wgoldsph said:

Wouldn't give him up for less than multiple firsts

I think if you don't have Godwin already on your roster, now is a terrible time to buy him. Very similar to AJ Brown. The value of these two has risen so quickly and to levels that frankly seem kind of crazy (maybe less so with Godwin) that you will just be overpaying by a lot. If you believe they are perennial top 5 WRs going forward then I guess it's fine, but I'm not there yet. 

But yes I agree - I wouldn't be giving up Godwin for less than two high firsts given how much hype is around him. 

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Price check on DJ Chark? I have him, and I’m sitting in a decent spot at WR with Golladay, Moore, Parker, Kirk and Sterling. Late 1st? 

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4 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Price check on DJ Chark? I have him, and I’m sitting in a decent spot at WR with Golladay, Moore, Parker, Kirk and Sterling. Late 1st? 

Definitely more than a late 1st. Especially the way this class is shaking out now. 

He's an athletic phenom who had surprising pedigree--and is now living up to it and showing technical skills at the position that no one expected him to develop. He's very very good, young, and seems to have broken out now. 

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1 minute ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Definitely more than a late 1st. Especially the way this class is shaking out now. 

He's an athletic phenom who had surprising pedigree--and is now living up to it and showing technical skills at the position that no one expected him to develop. He's very very good, young, and seems to have broken out now. 

I agree. I just don’t see anyone in my league giving more than that, so I’m probably better off just hanging on to him. 

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Not sure if this belongs here exactly, but I just turned down this offer in FFPC Superflex:

My Mahomes 

for

Carr, Mack, 1.08, 1.12, 3.07

I'm actually a little bit of a Mack believer, but less so about the Colts in general. Carr is meh but superflex he has value for sure. I told the guy he needed a godfather offer to get Mahomes, who I never want to trade, and this is what he sent. I said there is zero chance I would do it without a much higher 1st round pick this year. He does own the 1.03 but I'm really not looking to move Mahomes.

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26 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Price check on DJ Chark? I have him, and I’m sitting in a decent spot at WR with Golladay, Moore, Parker, Kirk and Sterling. Late 1st? 

 

23 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Definitely more than a late 1st. Especially the way this class is shaking out now. 

He's an athletic phenom who had surprising pedigree--and is now living up to it and showing technical skills at the position that no one expected him to develop. He's very very good, young, and seems to have broken out now. 

Well I like this. I was considering using either Chark or McLaurin plus a late first to try and move up to 2 or 3. Didn't think DJC/TML were worth quite that much.

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42 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

Not sure if this belongs here exactly, but I just turned down this offer in FFPC Superflex:

My Mahomes 

for

Carr, Mack, 1.08, 1.12, 3.07

I'm actually a little bit of a Mack believer, but less so about the Colts in general. Carr is meh but superflex he has value for sure. I told the guy he needed a godfather offer to get Mahomes, who I never want to trade, and this is what he sent. I said there is zero chance I would do it without a much higher 1st round pick this year. He does own the 1.03 but I'm really not looking to move Mahomes.

Yeah, in a SF that wouldn't even be close for me.

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1 hour ago, barackdhouse said:

Not sure if this belongs here exactly, but I just turned down this offer in FFPC Superflex:

My Mahomes 

for

Carr, Mack, 1.08, 1.12, 3.07

I'm actually a little bit of a Mack believer, but less so about the Colts in general. Carr is meh but superflex he has value for sure. I told the guy he needed a godfather offer to get Mahomes, who I never want to trade, and this is what he sent. I said there is zero chance I would do it without a much higher 1st round pick this year. He does own the 1.03 but I'm really not looking to move Mahomes.

Superflex? This offer is not remotely close. You would need two stud player, like McCaffrey and Michael Thomas if the picks in the trade are all 1.8 or later.

I play in one Superflex dynasty, and, if I owned Mahomes, I wouldn't trade him for anything I can imagine being offered, not even McCaffrey , Thomas, 1.8, 1.12, and 3.7.

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Price check on DJ Chark? I have him, and I’m sitting in a decent spot at WR with Golladay, Moore, Parker, Kirk and Sterling. Late 1st? 

Was traded in a FFPC league of mine a few weeks ago for Anthony Miller and a 2.9. All I got.

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Just now, menobrown said:

Was traded in a FFPC league of mine a few weeks ago for Anthony Miller and a 2.9. All I got.

Phew. It’d certainly take more than that for me. Then again, I’ve never been big on Miller. 

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21 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Superflex? This offer is not remotely close. You would need two stud player, like McCaffrey and Michael Thomas if the picks in the trade are all 1.8 or later.

I play in one Superflex dynasty, and, if I owned Mahomes, I wouldn't trade him for anything I can imagine being offered, not even McCaffrey , Thomas, 1.8, 1.12, and 3.7.

 

50 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Yeah, in a SF that wouldn't even be close for me.

I have no intention to move Mahomes either. 

I'm trying to move Sutton to get into the 1st round of this draft since I leveraged my future on the startup last year. I have a good competitive squad but I need another RB or two pretty badly. I can afford to move Sutton, Waller or Andrews, but nobody seems to want Sutton, weirdly. Maybe they do but nobody wants to move 2020 1sts. Can't blame them. The ones I own aren't moving anywhere either.

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Any ideas about value of Kareem Hunt? League is PPR, start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex. I'm thinking about trading him for help at WR, received an offer of Mecole Hardman. Is that comparable value?

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47 minutes ago, roarlions said:

Any ideas about value of Kareem Hunt? League is PPR, start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex. I'm thinking about trading him for help at WR, received an offer of Mecole Hardman. Is that comparable value?

I don't consider Hardman to be remotely worth Hunt even if he returns for Cleveland for another year.

I would strongly advise you to hang onto Hunt unless you find someone who assumes he is leaving CLE and will pay accordingly.  If he left Cleveland I'd put his value around 3-4 pick range myself and reality is would probably not trade him for anything lower then pick 2 if he departs Cleveland, not at least until NFL draft concludes.. He's a proven stud who proved he's not a by-product of KC offense and while 25 the last two years have drastically reduced his wear and tear.  Even if he remains in Cleveland he was usable last year and should likely only be one more year, and with the RB crop getting thinned out like it did I'd still value him somewhere around a middle first if he's still a Brown next year.

 

 

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59 minutes ago, roarlions said:

Any ideas about value of Kareem Hunt? League is PPR, start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex. I'm thinking about trading him for help at WR, received an offer of Mecole Hardman. Is that comparable value?

Hardman wouldn’t move the needle enough for me. If he departs from Cleveland and goes to a Tampa or Houston, he’s going to see a drastic jump in value. Even if he I knew he were staying in Cleveland, I’d still prefer him to a Hardman. 

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Thanks for the replies about Hunt, I'll hold him to see what happens with him during the offseason. 

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10 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Price check on DJ Chark? I have him, and I’m sitting in a decent spot at WR with Golladay, Moore, Parker, Kirk and Sterling. Late 1st? 

Super flex, draft ongoing. He was taken just before the 1.08. probably a little higher in non SF.  (although I wouldn't pay that much)

7 hours ago, roarlions said:

Any ideas about value of Kareem Hunt? League is PPR, start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 flex. I'm thinking about trading him for help at WR, received an offer of Mecole Hardman. Is that comparable value?

Taken before Kirk in the SF, 1.5 rounds before hardeman. 

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17 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Price check on DJ Chark? I have him, and I’m sitting in a decent spot at WR with Golladay, Moore, Parker, Kirk and Sterling. Late 1st? 

I picked him up in a 1QB PPR league late this year for Dak, Watkins, 1.12. I received Chark and the 2.01.

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Price check on George Kittle?  Regular ppr?  Am I right in assuming he's worth 1.01 plus?

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

Price check on George Kittle?  Regular ppr?  Am I right in assuming he's worth 1.01 plus?

Normal league? Flex lineups? He starts regardless but I give a little more value even to the elite TEs if I can start more than one. I think he's worth a little more than the pick regardless. But can see where others prefer the possible stud RB.

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54 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

Normal league? Flex lineups? He starts regardless but I give a little more value even to the elite TEs if I can start more than one. I think he's worth a little more than the pick regardless. But can see where others prefer the possible stud RB.

Normal league with flex.  I figure a qb, 2rb,3wr, 1te,1flex(rb/wr/te) league is average setup.

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5 hours ago, Mark Football said:

I picked him up in a 1QB PPR league late this year for Dak, Watkins, 1.12. I received Chark and the 2.01.

This is awful. It's just Dak essentially

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6 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

Price check on George Kittle?  Regular ppr?  Am I right in assuming he's worth 1.01 plus?

Full PPR across the board or TE premium PPR?  TE premium I think he's worth slightly more than the 1.01.  Non premium I prefer the 1.01.  

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On 1/18/2020 at 8:45 PM, barackdhouse said:

Yeah I agree I'd hold Hunt as well. 

Based on the latest news I'd probably be lucky if I could get Hardman for him. 😥

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6 hours ago, roarlions said:

Based on the latest news I'd probably be lucky if I could get Hardman for him. 😥

I’d have taken Hardman before the news but maybe it’s because I’ve been burned by guys like him too many times.

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