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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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Kamara and the early first or Kamara and two late ones would be enough to tempt me.  Early plus two late would be more of an offseason move when I no longer needed an RB in a lineup this week.

That said, it is situational.  My current home league team has Barkley and is a perennial contender.  It doesn’t need more depth so I’d rather consolidate into star players than break them up into multiple lesser assets.  I wouldn’t do the deal there.

Another league, where my dynasty is crumbling thsnks to Antonio going nuts and Rivers falling off a cliff, the idea of 2-4 talents in this rich upcoming draft class that could outlast Barkley by years once the rebuild is over, and I’d be happy to move on.

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6 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Who has more value, long term, in PPR; Malcolm Brown or Josh Reynolds?

IMO Reynolds, but he will probably have to leave the crowded LAR WRs until he gets a consistent chance to play a significant role.

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How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

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4 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

Damn. That’s tough. 
 

Chark last. Golladay first. Godwin a close second. Moore and Kirk a close third and fourth.

I think...

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6 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

For me. Godwin, Golladay, Moore, Chark, Kirk

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7 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

Godwin, Golladay, Chark, Kirk, Moore (somebody had to be last)

I think Kirk is the biggest x-factor out of these for me

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14 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

think Kirk is the biggest x-factor out of these for me

And by this do you mean you could potentially see him at the top of this list in a year or so? Because I agree. 

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

Good list. I could see valid points for any order. Many of their QBs are up in the air and Kirk may be on the most solid ground there. If gun to head:

Kenny Golladay. Seems like the one most capable of being a WR1. This is assuming Stafford continues to QB the Lions.

Chris Godwin. Great player but gets the benefit of having Big Mike take the top corners. QB a concern going forward but is a good security blanket for a young signal caller.

DJ Moore. Love him as a player, just not sure he will ever get fed WR1 target amounts. (Edit...he has 10 and 11 targets last two games). Also unsure what the QB situation is going forward.

Christian Kirk. Love the pairing with Murray and showed his upside last week. I just don’t have a good feel for what he is yet. Doesn’t feel like a WR1 but definitely has his place.

DJ Chark. Has had some great weeks and some quiet weeks. New to the production scene so may have caught some defenses by surprise. Least confident based on his short resume.

Edited by King of the Jungle
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This last series of posts reminded me of this post from @Concept Coop 

On 10/23/2019 at 6:00 PM, Concept Coop said:

Chark and Sutton will be going well before WR15 in off-season startup drafts if their current production holds. It's certainly reasonable to bet against that happening, but that startups aren't taking place right now is kind of the point of the exercise. In general, if you're buying these guys right now it's because you're sold and are paying accordingly.

I commented then that I thought it was an overstatement. Looks like there isn't really a consensus on Chark's value yet. Will be interesting to watch the rest of the way.

Edited by Just Win Baby

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4 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

Like everyone else I had a hard time with this.  Assuming ppr

1a Godwin - expect him to be a yearly 100+ catch 1000+ yard player no matter who's at qb, plus is great yac

1b Golladay - behind Godwin due to the fact that his game is based more on the big play.

3 Kirk - someone needs to be the alpha in the air raid.  I'm not quite sure it won't be issabella in 2 years. But for now it's looking like Kirk

4 Chark - will have to see how he works with Foles

5 Moore - this offense runs on CMC.  As noted above he's getting a big target share, but when it comes to rz or important downs you know where the ball is going.

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5 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

This is a great question and not one that is easy to answer because I think all of these players are similarly talented and young. I think these players are for the most part in the same tier although some are more proven than others.

If you were to rank them based on career VBD produced so far

Golladay 66

Godwin 62

Chark 36

Sutton 23

Moore 4

Kirk 0

Because these are such young players though, we are more interested in what they will produce in years ahead.

It is hard to project what these players will do in years ahead. Those projections would for me still be based on what they have produced so far. So similar to VBD to date order.

Based on pre NFL draft evaluations I had Moore and Kirk ranked a lot higher than Sutton and I wouldn't change that yet (the players are still too young and unproven at this point) 

Chark is a guy I didn't really evaluate as a college prospect. He has been a surprise to me. I do have some fog of war when it comes to the Jaguars who I rarely read about or get to see play.

Based on the VBD Godwin should be in a tier by himself above the other WR.

Considering the situation around the player, I think Kirk gets the biggest bump here because of Murray being the best QB of these teams.

There are a lot of other things I could consider as well, but based on the above factors I would rank them like this:

Tier one

Golladay

Godwin

 

Tier two

Moore

Kirk

Sutton

Chark

Kind of a coin flip for me between Golladay and Godwin. I think I like Golladays situation better. I could see going either way though and might just depend on what I had for lunch that day.

Edited by Biabreakable
I missed Golladay
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Just now, Just Win Baby said:

@Biabreakable: you used Sutton instead of Golladay. Intentional?

Nope.

Not sure how I mixed that up but I did.

Golladay currently has 66 VBD which is more than Godwin. He should be in tier one. I will fix that and just leave Sutton in there I guess.

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5 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

And by this do you mean you could potentially see him at the top of this list in a year or so? Because I agree. 

I'd bet against it but yeah that's what I was getting at. Or he could drop down a bit.

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I think I should point out that those tiers are only in vacuum.

If you evaluate the players by VBD and use data for more than just this season, there are WR with much higher career VBD who would be ranked ahead of these guys by a high enough margin to drop them into tier two if we are talking about the WR value overall.

These players are still so young that they haven't had enough time to compete with that. For the older WR with more seasons of data to work with, then you have to look at it more from a VBD per season type basis instead of overall. Thats another step to this as far as overall rankings I didn't do here.

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I love Chark 3rd after Golladay/Godwin 1a/1b. Give me a guy with elite size and speed that’s flashed all day every day. 

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On 11/13/2019 at 10:11 AM, kutta said:

I own Barkley and pretty much vowed to never trade him.

But, the Kamara owner is sniffing around and he owns 4 first round picks next year, three of them will be mid-late and one will be early-mid.

What's the consensus on Barkley's value at this point. I cant believe that I would find myself turning down Kamara and two 2020 firsts, but I'm not sure I could pull the trigger there.

I was offered Kerryon, Aaron Jones and a 2nd for Barkley today actually.  Told him no chance at that price.  I didn't counter because I was unsure of what I actually wanted, but my first thought was Kittle, Nuk, and Miles Sanders in TE premium.  Didn't send it though cause I'm not sure if I'd even do that.  

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7 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

How would you guys rank these five WR's in terms of dynasty value?  I had a pretty difficult time with this:

DJ Moore

Chris Godwin

Christian Kirk

Kenny Golladay

DJ Chark

Easy

Godwin, Golladay, Moore, BIG GAP, Chark, Kirk

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What are people thinking about David Johnson right now? AFAIK he is healthy but played just 7 snaps and had 0 touches yesterday. He has seemingly been surpassed by Drake, who has only been with the team for a few weeks.

While I have long felt that Johnson is overrated, I did not see that coming. 

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2 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Micheal Gallup is out-scoring Golladay, Kirk, and Moore PPG. Is he in the same tier as these guys?

To really do justice to some of the WR discussion (which is good), we really should talk about top 25 or 30 WRs. 

(He says, hoping others will post rankings.)

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7 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

What are people thinking about David Johnson right now? AFAIK he is healthy but played just 7 snaps and had 0 touches yesterday. He has seemingly been surpassed by Drake, who has only been with the team for a few weeks.

While I have long felt that Johnson is overrated, I did not see that coming. 

I have to believe his back is a bigger issue than they’re letting on. His contract is such that AZ is stuck with him, so his owners better hope that is the case. In terms of dynasty value, I’d probably sell for an early 2nd at this point. 

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49 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

To really do justice to some of the WR discussion (which is good), we really should talk about top 25 or 30 WRs. 

(He says, hoping others will post rankings.)

Here are today's consensus PPR dynasty WR rankings from FantasyPros:

  1. Michael Thomas NO 
  2. DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
  3. JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 
  4. Davante Adams GB 
  5. Tyreek Hill KC 
  6. Amari Cooper DAL 
  7. Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 
  8. Mike Evans TB 
  9. Chris Godwin TB 
  10. Cooper Kupp LAR 
  11. Keenan Allen LAC 
  12. Julio Jones ATL 
  13. Stefon Diggs MIN 
  14. Kenny Golladay DET 
  15. D.J. Moore CAR 
  16. Calvin Ridley ATL 
  17. Tyler Lockett SEA 
  18. Adam Thielen MIN 
  19. Courtland Sutton DEN
  20. Brandin Cooks LAR 
  21. D.K. Metcalf SEA 
  22. Allen Robinson CHI 
  23. T.Y. Hilton IND 
  24. Christian Kirk ARI 
  25. Tyler Boyd CIN 
  26. D.J. Chark JAC 
  27. Robert Woods LAR 
  28. N'Keal Harry NE 
  29. Terry McLaurin WAS 
  30. Mike Williams LAC 
  31. Marquise Brown BAL 
  32. A.J. Brown TEN 
  33. Corey Davis TEN 
  34. Sammy Watkins KC 
  35. Michael Gallup DAL 
  36. Curtis Samuel CAR 
  37. Will Fuller HOU 
  38. Jarvis Landry CLE 
  39. Mecole Hardman KC 
  40. A.J. Green CIN O 
  41. Alshon Jeffery PHI 
  42. Deebo Samuel SF 
  43. Robby Anderson NYJ 
  44. Sterling Shepard NYG 
  45. Marvin Jones DET 
  46. Julian Edelman NE 
  47. Dede Westbrook JAC 
  48. Tyrell Williams OAK 
  49. Parris Campbell IND 
  50. Josh Gordon SEA 
     

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51 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Here are today's consensus PPR dynasty WR rankings from FantasyPros:

  1. Michael Thomas NO 
  2. DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
  3. JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 
  4. Davante Adams GB 
  5. Tyreek Hill KC 
  6. Amari Cooper DAL 
  7. Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 
  8. Mike Evans TB 
  9. Chris Godwin TB 
  10. Cooper Kupp LAR 
  11. Keenan Allen LAC 
  12. Julio Jones ATL 
  13. Stefon Diggs MIN 
  14. Kenny Golladay DET 
  15. D.J. Moore CAR 
  16. Calvin Ridley ATL 
  17. Tyler Lockett SEA 
  18. Adam Thielen MIN 
  19. Courtland Sutton DEN
  20. Brandin Cooks LAR 
  21. D.K. Metcalf SEA 
  22. Allen Robinson CHI 
  23. T.Y. Hilton IND 
  24. Christian Kirk ARI 
  25. Tyler Boyd CIN 
  26. D.J. Chark JAC 
  27. Robert Woods LAR 
  28. N'Keal Harry NE 
  29. Terry McLaurin WAS 
  30. Mike Williams LAC 
  31. Marquise Brown BAL 
  32. A.J. Brown TEN 
  33. Corey Davis TEN 
  34. Sammy Watkins KC 
  35. Michael Gallup DAL 
  36. Curtis Samuel CAR 
  37. Will Fuller HOU 
  38. Jarvis Landry CLE 
  39. Mecole Hardman KC 
  40. A.J. Green CIN O 
  41. Alshon Jeffery PHI 
  42. Deebo Samuel SF 
  43. Robby Anderson NYJ 
  44. Sterling Shepard NYG 
  45. Marvin Jones DET 
  46. Julian Edelman NE 
  47. Dede Westbrook JAC 
  48. Tyrell Williams OAK 
  49. Parris Campbell IND 
  50. Josh Gordon SEA 
     

This list is timely for me, thank you!  So without going too AC-post in here, what # on this list is worth trading a late 2020 1st for?   In my 2nd year so still learning the dynasty ropes, been thinking of flipping a pick (would ideally be pick # 11-12 overall) for a WR for a title push this year.   Is there a tiered list where for example "Tier 3 + 1st round pick = Tier 2" type of comparison? 

Edited by wlwiles

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4 minutes ago, wlwiles said:

This list is timely for me, thank you!  So without going too AC-post in here, what # on this list is worth trading a late 2020 1st for?   In my 2nd year so still learning the dynasty ropes, been thinking of flipping a pick (would ideally be pick # 11-12 overall) for a WR for a title push this year. 

I don’t love the list, but I’d pay a late first for the top 26, with the exception of Cooks. Then it’s hit and miss. I’d also pay a late 1st for Deebo, AJ Brown, M Brown, Gallup, and Terry. 

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54 minutes ago, wlwiles said:

This list is timely for me, thank you!  So without going too AC-post in here, what # on this list is worth trading a late 2020 1st for?   In my 2nd year so still learning the dynasty ropes, been thinking of flipping a pick (would ideally be pick # 11-12 overall) for a WR for a title push this year.   Is there a tiered list where for example "Tier 3 + 1st round pick = Tier 2" type of comparison? 

I’d definitely pay a mid/late first for anyone in the top 19.  From 20 - 32 I’d have to look at them on a case by case basis.  I see a few guys in there I’d definitely pay a first for and some guys in there I wouldn’t pay more than a 2nd for.  

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4 minutes ago, roarlions said:

Any thoughts on what kind of 2020 rookie draft pick James Washington is worth?

I'd say late 2nd but I wouldn't pay it personally. Plenty of other more interesting young WRs to target (including his teammate Johnson, who I'd much rather have for a similar price). 

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Just now, RushHour said:

I'd say late 2nd but I wouldn't pay it personally. Plenty of other more interesting young WRs to target (including his teammate Johnson, who I'd much rather have for a similar price). 

Also plenty of upcoming rookies to spend that pick on who could well end up better than Washington.

I’d hold the pick at this point, which makes Washington difficult to sell.

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1 minute ago, Arodin said:

Also plenty of upcoming rookies to spend that pick on who could well end up better than Washington.

I’d hold the pick at this point, which makes Washington difficult to sell.

Yeah it's tough. Honestly in this draft class I'd probably be fine to sell him for a third, but I realise most people would see that as a lateral move at best (and he probably cost a 2nd in his rookie draft). I just don't seem much future upside with Washington. Basically a #3 WR on his team, occasional flex in a good matchup or with an injury to another WR. That's not worth much. 

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Thanks for the quick feedback, it basically confirms my feeling. I was already thinking that a 3rd was as high as I would go. 

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Here's my top 30 WR's at the moment for dynasty purposes

1.  DeAndre Hopkins

2.  Michael Thomas

3.  Chris Godwin

4.  JuJu Smith-Schuster (I'm well aware his current value isn't this high but he's so young and I think he'll rise back to this spot with Ben next season and long term)

5.  Tyreek Hill

6.  Amari Cooper

7.  OBJ

8.  Tyler Lockett

9.  Mike Evans

10.  Davante Adams

11.  Keenan Allen

12.  Kenny Golladay

13.  Courtland Sutton

14.  DJ Moore

15.  AJ Brown

16.  Stefon Diggs

17.  Cooper Kupp

18.  Julio Jones

19.  TY Hilton

20.  Adam Thielen

21.  Allen Robinson (I'm hoping for a QB upgrade in the offseason.  It's so clear Trubisky isn't the answer, but NFL teams tend to take longer to realize for some reason)

22.  DJ Chark

23.  Terry McLaurin

24.  Michael Gallup

25.  DK Metcalf

26.  Preston Williams

27.  Deebo Samuel

28. AJ Green

29. Robert Woods

30. Christian Kirk

2020 1st round WR's will likely be inserted somewhere as high as 6 and as low as 17 depending on my overall eval's, draft position, and landing spots.  I would not pay a 1st for anyone below 20, as I think they just get pushed down the rankings more than rise to the challenge of being a high value asset.  There's 3 guys between 20-30 that I think could elevate themselves but that would be an irrational ranking and a "blind faith" type of acquisition, which I try my best not to do.  Like the Juju ranking, it's irrational.  Those 3 are McLaurin, Preston Williams, and Deebo.  I would imagine anyone on this list requires a 1st (minimum) from the sellers point of view though.  

Edited by Zyphros
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Next question. Where does everyone value D. Henry in comparison to 1st round rookie picks next year?

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1 hour ago, roarlions said:

Next question. Where does everyone value D. Henry in comparison to 1st round rookie picks next year?

I've always been pretty low on him, but it's hard to ignore what he's doing. I'd trade a late 1st/2nd package without question. I wouldn't like it, but might trade a mid 1st for him if I needed a back. I couldn't bring myself to trade a top 4 pick for him, however.

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On 11/28/2019 at 11:24 AM, Zyphros said:

Here's my top 30 WR's at the moment for dynasty purposes

1.  DeAndre Hopkins

2.  Michael Thomas

3.  Chris Godwin

4.  JuJu Smith-Schuster (I'm well aware his current value isn't this high but he's so young and I think he'll rise back to this spot with Ben next season and long term)

5.  Tyreek Hill

6.  Amari Cooper

7.  OBJ

8.  Tyler Lockett

9.  Mike Evans

10.  Davante Adams

11.  Keenan Allen

12.  Kenny Golladay

13.  Courtland Sutton

14.  DJ Moore

15.  AJ Brown

16.  Stefon Diggs

17.  Cooper Kupp

18.  Julio Jones

19.  TY Hilton

20.  Adam Thielen

21.  Allen Robinson (I'm hoping for a QB upgrade in the offseason.  It's so clear Trubisky isn't the answer, but NFL teams tend to take longer to realize for some reason)

22.  DJ Chark

23.  Terry McLaurin

24.  Michael Gallup

25.  DK Metcalf

26.  Preston Williams

27.  Deebo Samuel

28. AJ Green

29. Robert Woods

30. Christian Kirk

2020 1st round WR's will likely be inserted somewhere as high as 6 and as low as 17 depending on my overall eval's, draft position, and landing spots.  I would not pay a 1st for anyone below 20, as I think they just get pushed down the rankings more than rise to the challenge of being a high value asset.  There's 3 guys between 20-30 that I think could elevate themselves but that would be an irrational ranking and a "blind faith" type of acquisition, which I try my best not to do.  Like the Juju ranking, it's irrational.  Those 3 are McLaurin, Preston Williams, and Deebo.  I would imagine anyone on this list requires a 1st (minimum) from the sellers point of view though.  

Obligatory - Keenan Allen seems like a big name guy we should be dropping in the waivers amirite?

You're very high on Moore, care to say why? As I said before I just don't see a wr being able to maintain big numbers in the CMC offense, especially with all the changes that are going on in car now.

Love the Deebo blind faith.  Call me an irrational believer as well.

How does aj green still make this list for dynasty?  Does he play three years from now?  And for who?

 

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

You're very high on Moore, care to say why? As I said before I just don't see a wr being able to maintain big numbers in the CMC offense, especially with all the changes that are going on in car now.

He hasn’t had less than 8 targets since Week 5, with most weeks having double digits, and that’s with CMC on his tear. He’s solidified himself as the clear number 1 WR in the offense, and in my opinion has shown he’s capable of being an alpha dog number 1 in this league for a long time. And he won’t even turn 23 until next year. It’s fair to be concerned with what’s going to happen with the QB situation in Carolina, but I would bet on the talent and him climbing even higher in the dynasty rankings in the next couple of years. 

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As a Tyler Boyd owner, i couldn’t see trading him for anyone below Metcalf (and there’s a couple guys above him I’d have lower).

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1 hour ago, wgoldsph said:

You're very high on Moore, care to say why? As I said before I just don't see a wr being able to maintain big numbers in the CMC offense, especially with all the changes that are going on in car now.

I don't see why putting a 22 year old WR on pace to finish with 98-1300-5 as a high dynasty WR2 is "very high" on him.  That's only slightly off the pace of what JuJu did last year when he became a top 5 dynasty WR (with some people arguing he was the #1 dynasty WR in the offseason).

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I don't see why putting a 22 year old WR on pace to finish with 98-1300-5 as a high dynasty WR2 is "very high" on him.  That's only slightly off the pace of what JuJu did last year when he became a top 5 dynasty WR (with some people arguing he was the #1 dynasty WR in the offseason).

And DJ is WR10 right now on the season. 

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

 

 

1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:


 

You guys are right, guess I wasn't really looking at his numbers objectively.  Did the same with sterling Shepard last year.

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I just moved DJ Moore up to WR10 in my ranks and saw someone rank him as WR3 earlier this week. In some ways, that feels crazy but as someone in here said, this is basically what we saw with Juju last year. 

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1 minute ago, jeter23 said:

I just moved DJ Moore up to WR10 in my ranks and saw someone rank him as WR3 earlier this week. In some ways, that feels crazy but as someone in here said, this is basically what we saw with Juju last year. 

It makes sense. He's got the draft pedigree, is still very young, and is producing with (IMO) more upside to come. If Godwin can be a top 5 WR in most rankings now, based on hype and a handful of huge weeks this season, then Moore's ranking isn't a stretch at all. 

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1 minute ago, RushHour said:

It makes sense. He's got the draft pedigree, is still very young, and is producing with (IMO) more upside to come. If Godwin can be a top 5 WR in most rankings now, based on hype and a handful of huge weeks this season, then Moore's ranking isn't a stretch at all. 

Yeah, the real issue with rankings right now (and it's a good problem) is there are so many potential top-tier WRs. Few of the WR1s from the offseason have lost value and then Moore, Sutton, Golladay, etc are moving up. Julio will be the victim. I expect him to fall out of top-15 of offseason ADP.

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1 hour ago, RushHour said:

It makes sense. He's got the draft pedigree, is still very young, and is producing with (IMO) more upside to come. If Godwin can be a top 5 WR in most rankings now, based on hype and a handful of huge weeks this season, then Moore's ranking isn't a stretch at all. 

This. I actually own both in dynasty, and some people might would call me crazy, but it’d probably be harder for me to trade Moore than Godwin. I absolutely loved him coming out and he’s already putting it all together at age 22. Just think of what he’s going to be doing in two years. 

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What price in terms of 2020 rookie draft pick would you give to Devante Parker? I took over an orphaned team and snuck into the playoffs (6th seed in 12 tm SF dynasty). WRs are my weak spot on my roster, but a 1st is too high imo.

Edited by northern exposure

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20 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I've always been pretty low on him, but it's hard to ignore what he's doing. I'd trade a late 1st/2nd package without question. I wouldn't like it, but might trade a mid 1st for him if I needed a back. I couldn't bring myself to trade a top 4 pick for him, however.

Any other opinions/evaluations for Henry? How many RBs, if any, in next year's class would you rank ahead of Henry?

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