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I'd rather have the first pick every time. Fournette is a yeoman, but 1 gets you a shot at a special rb.
Not much on the TE's and if you can I'd hang onto Ebron at least through FA and maybe his landing spot will get you a buyer and I'd try and hang onto Herndon into next season when he has a chance to actually do something.
I actually kind of agree with you from the times I have seen Gordon play with the Chargers which isn't a lot but he has averaged about 45 catches per season in his career and has caught 3.34 passes per game. Not an elite pass catcher but decent.
I still believe OBJ can be dominant like he was. I would bet against it but I can see it. He is someone I would buy at the right price. Diggs just doesn't get me excited at all so I'm not targeting him. But I could be talked into it. I assume they're probably both about even on the market.
I still rank OBJ quite a bit higher than diggs.
I'd bet Gordon would want to play for the best team in the league with a great coach.
DLF has this one heavily in favor of the Hunt side. For me, really comes down to the rookies you're looking at dropping from 1.09 to 2.04.
I can't help but think you're right. I've been thinking something similar. However, I have been sort of shuffling names up and down my board since the combine and since certain guys have hit my radar, and I'm seeing a deep draft. IDK. You're probably right re: 2.08 but some of those middle picks there look really good. You're definitely right that the hype will only get worse, though. Just for posterity here is my current list, always subject to revision:
My take is the draft is very deep at WR, ok at RB but I expect massive run on them early and awful looking at TE. I only play one QB FFPC and don't really value any of them much, might if Tua looks healthy enough to play next year.
It’s a good draft class and it’s deep, so there will be some stud players in this draft, and there will be a lot of disappointment as well. I’ll predict we see a lot of player for pick trades in the forum that have the value on the player side.
I find myself in the opposite end of the spectrum and I am having mixed emotions on it. I traded away all my 2020 picks to make a playoff push in 2019 (Lost championship due to poor lineup selection - QB). I am only mildly following the rookies as I don't have any picks, but I just don't see any of my Top players being offered in return for picks.
This is the exact reason why I think picks are overvalued in general. It takes way too much to get them for a dart throw. Some hit, most don't. I would rather have the players that have shown they can do it in the NFL already.
Maybe I wasn’t clear- I think if you offered a draft pick for a player you can pull a very good veteran. You will have to overpay to get a draft pick this year because of “perceived value.” You can likely get a solid return for say pick 1.06, and there will be some draft picks that disappoint. Last years picks were “worthless.” Vets that might pull a late 1st most years can be had for a 2nd this year, and guys like Marvin Jones can probably be had for rd 3/4 (speculation.) Last year you couldn’t get rid of a late first for anything.
I will disagree about Hunt's floor being higher but only due to off the field stuff. His floor is really low. On the field I agree with you Dr. Dan
I believe I understood your point of offering up a valuable rookie pick in exchange for a known vet and I believe it is in the majority right now with all the hype circling the draft. I was just looking at it from the other side.... I don't want to offer a known proven player for an unknown rookie. I agree there are a multitude of players I could trade for picks... but clear starters are hard to offer up when they are part of the core lineup.
In superflex I'm thrilled to have a bunch of picks between 12-20
I’d still do any 2nd for a random future 1st but in past years most would deal a late 1st for a future 1st, I wouldn’t do that this year.
That ceh/ruggs/higgins combo projected at 8-10 would be hard for me to give up on for anything other than a gaurenteed top 3 next year pick.
I've already moved Ruggs down about 5 spots since I posted my list two days ago above. And a number of other small changes. But CEH, Higgins, Mims would be awfully hard for me to pass up right now for a future 1st. I hold 1.10 in a couple spots and I think that is the sweet spot for me right now.
I feel like I can answer these kind of questions when I apply to real life scenarios in my leauges.
I moved Mack and a late 2nd for Conner and an early 3rd.
Was offered Conner for a late first and said no.
Conner is near the top of my list of buy-low candidates this year. Since I've bought two shares now I'll probably pump the brakes but I like him to rebound big with Ben back this year. I like Juju as well. Never owned Gordon or Bell. Nothing against them but I probably won't get any shares anywhere from here. Until it gets down to a Mark Ingram 2019 level of value, which it might next year. I bought him for 2nds last year and I certainly would for Bell or Gordon if they ever get there (and still look like they have any tread left). But I do think Conner is in the sweet spot to buy low right now. Obviously it's a risk as the draft and FA are left to go and has been pointed out, the Steelers had a handful of RB visits during the combine. I am not going to spend big, but right now I'm betting Conner is the guy. If he survives FA and the draft intact, expect his price to go up.
I think Big Ben had an enormous impact on the WR's but minimal on Conner. What impacts Connor's ability to bounce back is I think mainly his health and to me his injuries are not just luck, has a very upright running style and does not avoid contact. Also don't think the OL is as good as it was in 2018 due to age and loss of Munchak and attention AB got did not hurt either.
In terms of his outlook for next year the hold out risk has me a little concerned but otherwise just feel like his down year was injury related. Have him as my RB5 next season at moment.
I’m puzzled why more people don’t consider ATL a primo RB spot. Especially if they get rid of Freeman. Of course with 2 seconds I'd imagine they go RB in draft before FA.
I realize I am late to the party here but I wanted to jump in because this is something that I fundamentally disagree with.
I agree. I think it varies a little from rookie class to class and each vet should be viewed on their own merits but fundamentally I think what you're saying is on point.
What are you considering "busts" of these vet players? In your 2018 list the only busts I would really consider are Corey Davis and McKinnon. All the others have gone down a normal progression of losing value as they age. In 2018 they were mostly good for the value they were taken at.
I think that's pretty much what you get with Julio, some will view him as a premium player and some will view him as someone who's bound to fall off the cliff sooner rather than later.
Thanks. I was reading an interesting dynasty pamphlet from Roto Underworld talking about value and how you're generally going to find value in either rookies or first-year guys or older players. It then talked about using that value while you can instead of dumping it for nothing.
It seems all over the place as you are indicating. I wish I could relay a straight up Julio trade for you but my leagues I've seen him dealt he's part of a package but just looking at his part in the package it sure seems to have a lot of variance.
Yeah, DLF has him and Melvin Gordon as having a point advantage over A Rob and Chark (that's Dynasty League Football) and Roto Underworld has that trade as very lopsided in favor of whoever receives A-Rob and Chark.
