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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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22 hours ago, rockaction said:

I think different calcs have different weights and you adjust accordingly. That's just me. If you know why the calc is showing what it's showing, that makes it all that much more a useful tool. 

I have never even looked at a trade calculator on any site.  I think there are way too many variables that make them essentially useless.  It doesn't take into account your league settings (mine are not typical so they don't translate), it doesn't take into account your roster or opponents roster, and it doesn't know your trade partner. 

 

If you cannot trust your own evaluations of your team and players then making trades is going to be very difficult regardless of trade calculators saying the trade is even or not. 

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Posted (edited)
On ‎5‎/‎25‎/‎2020 at 8:33 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

Seems like a good exercise in the limited usefulness of trade calculators.

FWIW via startup ADP it's 1.09 for 4.07/4.09.

I don't pay for fantasy data anymore so don't really have access to it but is this accurate for Sutton? The few startups I had seen this year he was going mid-2nd to mid-3rd at the latest. I certainly couldn't list 42 guys I would like more than Sutton unless its superflex. I started struggling with names looking over rankings that I for certain would draft over him in a startup when I got to around 20.

 

Edit: I also wouldn't take Mixon or Chubb until the early 2nd round but I am down on both compared to consensus.

Edited by Buckna

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42 minutes ago, Buckna said:

I don't pay for fantasy data anymore so don't really have access to it but is this accurate for Sutton? The few startups I had seen this year he was going mid-2nd to mid-3rd at the latest. I certainly couldn't list 42 guys I would like more than Sutton unless its superflex. I started struggling with names looking over rankings that I for certain would draft over him in a startup when I got to around 20.

 

Edit: I also wouldn't take Mixon or Chubb until the early 2nd round but I am down on both compared to consensus.

I typically use FFPC ADP but this one is free and is well regarded/trusted: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

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34 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I typically use FFPC ADP but this one is free and is well regarded/trusted: http://mizelle.net/mfl/2020/

Interesting, everyone has their preferences but I wouldn't take Metcalf, Lamb, ARob, AJones, Julio, Akers, Cooper, Beckham, Ekeler, Lamar, Swift, Henry, or Dobbins ahead of him. That's a full round worth of guys just right there. 

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I can't keep track of the running pronouns anymore. Who are people talking about?

4 hours ago, Buckna said:

Interesting, everyone has their preferences but I wouldn't take Metcalf, Lamb, ARob, AJones, Julio, Akers, Cooper, Beckham, Ekeler, Lamar, Swift, Henry, or Dobbins ahead of him. That's a full round worth of guys just right there. 

 

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Had a little bit of an interesting thought today wonder what the board thinks.

IF Stidham is good as a 2nd year player, do people just chalk it up to Bill Belicheck found his new Brady and give more praise to the coach rather than Stidham?  So in that scenario Stidham's value would be suppressed for how good he actually is right?  Again IF he becomes a thing.  Or would people think BB got "lucky" and he found another quality starter and Stidham launches himself up to top15 QB in the league but the weapons aren't so great, so again his value would be suppressed no?  

The main question is IF he's good, how would people view him.  I think people would still be down on him and say he got lucky or that BB did his magic.  

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13 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Had a little bit of an interesting thought today wonder what the board thinks.

IF Stidham is good as a 2nd year player, do people just chalk it up to Bill Belicheck found his new Brady and give more praise to the coach rather than Stidham?  So in that scenario Stidham's value would be suppressed for how good he actually is right?  Again IF he becomes a thing.  Or would people think BB got "lucky" and he found another quality starter and Stidham launches himself up to top15 QB in the league but the weapons aren't so great, so again his value would be suppressed no?  

The main question is IF he's good, how would people view him.  I think people would still be down on him and say he got lucky or that BB did his magic.  

If he is legit I think the correct answer is both...he is good and also in a great spot with BB...I am a firm believer that so much of being a good QB is getting hooked up with a good Coach (and vice-versa)...I posted a few weeks ago that if you look at all the H-o-F QBs you will see that almost everyone of them had either a H-o-F Coach or at least a good Coach...that doesn't mean Stidham is heading to Canton but it does mean that if he establishes himself as the long-term starter for the Pats he will most certainly be a fantasy asset...in two QB/Super-flex Dynasty leagues he is a great guy to target right now as you probably won't have to over-pay because there are a lot of people not sold on him but if he hits you could be looking at a pretty solid producer for the next decade.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Boston said:

If he is legit I think the correct answer is both...he is good and also in a great spot with BB...I am a firm believer that so much of being a good QB is getting hooked up with a good Coach (and vice-versa)...I posted a few weeks ago that if you look at all the H-o-F QBs you will see that almost everyone of them had either a H-o-F Coach or at least a good Coach...that doesn't mean Stidham is heading to Canton but it does mean that if he establishes himself as the long-term starter for the Pats he will most certainly be a fantasy asset...in two QB/Super-flex Dynasty leagues he is a great guy to target right now as you probably won't have to over-pay because there are a lot of people not sold on him but if he hits you could be looking at a pretty solid producer for the next decade.

How long does BB stick around though......?

I like Stidham this year to out produce his ADP pretty easily.

Edited by Milkman

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I like him a lot for 2QB leagues right now, even in re-draft possibly but there's a ton of risk obviously.  If he is something, he's criminally undervalued.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Milkman said:

How long does BB stick around though......?

BB is one of the foremost (if not the most) football Historians there is...right now he is 56 wins from from Shula's record...not only do I think that is important to him but the fact it is held by a guy who he dislikes and dumped on him gives him more motivation...also, I truly believe that he would love to win another title without Brady...right now he is arguably the greatest Coach in NFL history, if he accomplishes one of those two things it is cemented and if he does both no one will probably ever come close to being mentioned with him...so my answer is he still has a ways to go, he is a football lifer and as long as he is healthy he is gonna keep coaching...and the fact his kids are coaching with him only gives him more incentive to keep going.

Edited by Boston
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8 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

I like him a lot for 2QB leagues right now, even in re-draft possibly but there's a ton of risk obviously.  If he is something, he's criminally undervalued.

The fact that BB has not brought anyone else but Hoyer is a huge statement to me...if Hoyer is the Pats QB this season will be a train-wreck, gotta believe BB has faith that this kid will be legit...long term the Pats have over 100 mil in cap space next year so he could also get a major upgrade in weapons in 2021.

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35 minutes ago, Boston said:

The fact that BB has not brought anyone else but Hoyer is a huge statement to me...if Hoyer is the Pats QB this season will be a train-wreck, gotta believe BB has faith that this kid will be legit...long term the Pats have over 100 mil in cap space next year so he could also get a major upgrade in weapons in 2021.

Or he has faith that this kid will provide them with a top5 pick to draft Lawrence or Fields, not exactly an easy guy to read.

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2 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Or he has faith that this kid will provide them with a top5 pick to draft Lawrence or Fields, not exactly an easy guy to read.

I just can't see BB being good with willingly tanking the first year Brady is gone...not the look he wants...also, it really would not look good committing to this kid without any Plan B then having him fall flat on his face.

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17 hours ago, Boston said:

I just can't see BB being good with willingly tanking the first year Brady is gone...not the look he wants...also, it really would not look good committing to this kid without any Plan B then having him fall flat on his face.

Maybe Aaron Rodgers finds his way to NE.

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Just now, King of the Jungle said:

Maybe Aaron Rodgers finds his way to NE.

If Stidham is not the answer it will be fascinating to see what they do (and as a fan I really hope this does not happen)...Hoyer is absolutely not the future and the only other QBs on the roster are two UDFA's so that would really be a reach...in this worst-case scenario everything has to be on the table.

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1 hour ago, Boston said:

If Stidham is not the answer it will be fascinating to see what they do (and as a fan I really hope this does not happen)...Hoyer is absolutely not the future and the only other QBs on the roster are two UDFA's so that would really be a reach...in this worst-case scenario everything has to be on the table.

I would have thought they would have brought Dalton in, but I whiffed on that guess.

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23 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Wow I love the Sutton side here... this is a free 1.5 and single 2021 1st

I don't think its quite that good.

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21 hours ago, Boston said:

The fact that BB has not brought anyone else but Hoyer is a huge statement to me...if Hoyer is the Pats QB this season will be a train-wreck,

He could be wrong of course but fwiw Joe Banner has tweeted out several times that he is adamant Hoyer will be the starter to begin the season at least.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, Dr. BD said:

Any Henderson truthers still left? I am holding out hope for some Chris Carson scenario, fighting off the new rookie (or hoping Akers comes into camp fat)...

 

Where do we see his value relative to a WR like Higgins? 

I was never a huge fan but I am buying st his current prices because I think Akers stinks. 

I would value him well below Higgins though. Higgins is an early 2nd. Seems like Henderson's current value is more around an early 3rd.

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31 minutes ago, Gally said:

I don't think its quite that good.

Me neither. For me it's basically:

Saquon for Sutton/1.01/1.05/random 2021 1st

You need to hit big on at least one of those picks or you just traded a top 5 asset for a handful of "pretty good".

Depth is always available in dynasty leagues, but once you lose a top end player, they're going to be hard to replace.

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Dont care what calculators say.  If you move Barkley, you better turn something coming back into a stud RB really really quick or you lose.  Would be a good deal for a rebuild though and maybe thats what we have here.

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

He could be wrong of course but fwiw Joe Banner has tweeted out several times that he is adamant Hoyer will be the starter to begin the season at least.

 

 

I have seen a few others say that as well which I want no part of...if he does I believe it will be ugly...it's not like they have a Derick Henry type of back that they can play a conservative-style of offense with...also, I fully expect the D to take a step backwards, at least for the first half of the season as they lost a lot of pieces that contributed to that unit last year...due to that they are gonna have to throw and if it is Hoyer doing the throwing it won't be pretty.

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3 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

Any Henderson truthers still left? I am holding out hope for some Chris Carson scenario, fighting off the new rookie (or hoping Akers comes into camp fat)...

 

Where do we see his value relative to a WR like Higgins? 

Yeah I mean he survived my FFPC cuts to 16, and he will likely make it to my regular season cuts to 20, but will I ever start him? Guess we'll find out. I went into my rookie drafts assuming he will bust but I simply have to let it ride this season. He will get a pass catching role that is desperation flex worthy, and if he outcompetes Akers then who knows. But I've more or less made other plans and he is simply bench depth at this point. 

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3 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

Any Henderson truthers still left? I am holding out hope for some Chris Carson scenario, fighting off the new rookie (or hoping Akers comes into camp fat)...

 

Where do we see his value relative to a WR like Higgins

All day. Agree with 2nd round vs 3rd round comment above.

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23 hours ago, Dr. BD said:

Any Henderson truthers still left? I am holding out hope for some Chris Carson scenario, fighting off the new rookie (or hoping Akers comes into camp fat)...

I don't believe in Akers so been trying to buy cheap. Got him for a 3rd next year in an idp league. Don't love Henderson but people are really down on him.

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Posted (edited)

So I'm in the beginning of a startup best ball PPR superflex dynasty league. I made a gamble trading back twice, and I feel like it backfired. Would love to get some thoughts on how I should now approach this if you guys don't mind. Starting to look at this like BPA vs need (QB) discussion and wondered how others would approach it. So we start 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te, 1 superflex, and 3 regular flex spots. In rounds 1-2 I took MT and Hill. Now I'm 1 pick away at the 3.12 (I also have the 4.1, 5.2, 6.1, 7.2, 8.1, 9.2 before reverting back to original picks 10.11, 11.2, 12.11, 13.2...) clearly I need QBs, but my security blanket targets  at 3.12 (Daniel Jones, Wentz, or Burrow) are all gone so now just not sure. Best players available are:

QB- Rodgers, Tua, Ryan, Goff, Stafford, Lock...
RB- Ekeler, A Jones, Drake, Dobbins, Fournette, Akers, Gurley, Gordon...
WR- Evans, Julio, JuJu, Cooper, Beckham...
TE- Andrews, Ertz...

When I look at what's left, I keep looking at RB help, and even another WR...but its a superflex...what would you do here? 

 

 

 

Edited by ffmail4me

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At least we aren't even pretending this isn't an AC thread now.

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20 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Anyone know what happened to the AJ Brown thread?

No, but it's gone even if you search through the player index. It got nuked, somehow.

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1 hour ago, King of the Jungle said:

Anyone know what happened to the AJ Brown thread?

Maybe they tried moving this one to the AC forum and missed?  Kind of like Tannehill's passes to AJB.

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I am doing a 360 with Sony Michel. His floor in ppr isn’t appealing but he is cheap. I was able to acquire him for two 3rd’s in a couple of spots. I am going to send more offers out. You can do worse trying to find a RB3-4. 

I am feeling similar vibes with Kerryon. I see talent and a committee brewing. I am buying on the cheap where I can.

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2 hours ago, dipandglide said:

I am doing a 360 with Sony Michel. His floor in ppr isn’t appealing but he is cheap. I was able to acquire him for two 3rd’s in a couple of spots. I am going to send more offers out. You can do worse trying to find a RB3-4. 

I am feeling similar vibes with Kerryon. I see talent and a committee brewing. I am buying on the cheap where I can.

You’re buying Kerryon?  He was only mildly valuable when he was “the guy.”  Then his team used a top 35 pick on a RB.  Even if you’re buying “cheap,” what is the upside in Kerryon?

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1 hour ago, SayWhat? said:

You’re buying Kerryon?  He was only mildly valuable when he was “the guy.”  Then his team used a top 35 pick on a RB.  Even if you’re buying “cheap,” what is the upside in Kerryon?

He has been decent when healthy and given opportunity. I said rb3-4 for a reason, it isn’t sexy but can come in handy. He absolutely has rb2 upside if Swift were to get hurt.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

What do you guys think Mark Ingram is worth? I'd imagine he'd have to to traded to a win now team who needs a RB.

To a win now team he should be worth an early to mid 2nd, but that value drops significantly this time next year.

Edited by JohnnyU
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39 minutes ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

What do you guys think Mark Ingram is worth? I'd imagine he'd have to to traded to a win now team who needs a RB.

Tough trading for that guy even in a win now situation. A lot of horses in that stable and nowhere to go but down with Ingram. Better to target in a package.

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Where do you guys rank Hunt compared to other mid round RBs in PPR dynasty (say, DJ, Conner, Singletary, maybe including 2nd round rookie Rbs like Vaughn, Gibson, Moss, etc.) Doesn't he probably have the biggest upside and safest floor (or would you give that DJ based on touches?) 

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Where do you guys rank Hunt compared to other mid round RBs in PPR dynasty (say, DJ, Conner, Singletary, maybe including 2nd round rookie Rbs like Vaughn, Gibson, Moss, etc.) Doesn't he probably have the biggest upside and safest floor (or would you give that DJ based on touches?) 

The guy was given a second chance and got pulled over for speeding with an open bottle of vodka in his vehicle. 

He's an implosion waiting to happen. I'd take any of those guys before him. And I don't particularly like Conner or Singletary.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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14 hours ago, ffmail4me said:

Where do you guys rank Hunt compared to other mid round RBs in PPR dynasty (say, DJ, Conner, Singletary, maybe including 2nd round rookie Rbs like Vaughn, Gibson, Moss, etc.) Doesn't he probably have the biggest upside and safest floor (or would you give that DJ based on touches?) 

I would take Hunt over all of them.

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Def taking DJ and Singletary in front of Hunt. Conner is super close but I'd probably take Conner ahead of him too. 

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On 5/31/2020 at 1:00 PM, dipandglide said:

I am doing a 360 with Sony Michel. His floor in ppr isn’t appealing but he is cheap. I was able to acquire him for two 3rd’s in a couple of spots. I am going to send more offers out. You can do worse trying to find a RB3-4. 

I am feeling similar vibes with Kerryon. I see talent and a committee brewing. I am buying on the cheap where I can.

You mean a 180, right? Because a 360 keeps you going the same direction 😁

I agree on Michel. He's boring, but for a 25 year old starting RB with 1st round capital, he's almost free. 

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18 hours ago, Twenty-Four Eighty-Four said:

What do you guys think Mark Ingram is worth? I'd imagine he'd have to to traded to a win now team who needs a RB.

Think this was discussed a couple pages ago, but I gave the #25 rookie pick and a future 3rd for him in one league recently to cuff Dobbins.

In a rookie class this deep I wouldn't give anything more than a late 2nd-early 3rd for him.

He has the double Dobbins/Lamar vulture factor and no long-term value to speak of, so he's really just a short-term depth play.

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Rapoport: Salary cap could drop by $40 million per team in 2020

I wasn't sure where to put this. Maybe its own thread? 

I dunno. If this happens then it seems that there may be more turnover in the NFL than we have seen.

The salary cap has been going up every year afaik so if it does go down by a lot as Rappoport says its uncharted territory.

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That’ll go over well. The rich (mostly) white owners get to spread the sting of their reduced profits onto the (mostly black) players.

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7 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Rapoport: Salary cap could drop by $40 million per team in 2020

I wasn't sure where to put this. Maybe its own thread? 

I dunno. If this happens then it seems that there may be more turnover in the NFL than we have seen.

The salary cap has been going up every year afaik so if it does go down by a lot as Rappoport says its uncharted territory.

They should shorten the season if that is the case....but they won’t ...because greed.

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5 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

They should shorten the season if that is the case....but they won’t ...because greed.

How would shortening the season help?  It would only further reduce the pool of money.  

Both sides get paid a percentage of the cap.  Whether it goes up or down is beside the point.  I am firmly for players rights but there really nothing to gripe about from their perspective.  Everyone, even the owners, are effectively paid on commission.

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