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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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On 6/10/2020 at 7:56 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

It depends a bit on roster size & how good the waiver wire options tend to be in your league, but I'd probably stick to the minimum bid for these guys ($0 or $1). None of them are in the top 50 in my rookie rankings. In most leagues I'd expect at least a few of them to pass through waivers unclaimed, and I don't see much difference between my favorite of the bunch and my 5th favorite. So I'd just rank them and see which one fell to me for the minimum bid.

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8 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Well, our rosters expanded & I had 0 draft picks, so I need to try for a couple of em. lol

But this was more of a general question. Those were the FAs after our draft that I’ve consistently seen on sleeper lists. 

i like Mooney, Proche, Hightower & Warren. I think $5/$500 is a little light, as I can’t be the only one interested in those guys but probably true that most on this list won’t be worth much never know though.
 

Lottery tickets do hit sometimes. :shrug: 

Those guys all made it through five rounds of a rookie draft for a reason - and most of the players drafted in rounds 3, 4 and 5 won't ever amount to anything as is.

Lottery tickets can hit, yes, but the percentages say you'd be just throwing that money away, as opposed to being able to spend it in-season after you see a guy come "out of nowhere". I'd put a buck or two on a few of them if you really need a few bodies but wouldn't shed a tear if I missed out.

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On 6/10/2020 at 9:56 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Marginal/sleeper rookies - blind bid waiver value?

on a $500 budget, what would you spend on:

1. Darnell Mooney

2. James Proche

3. Michael Warren

4. Quez Watkins

5. Salvan Ahmed

6. John Hightower

7. James Morgan

8. Joe Reed

9. Josiah Deguara

 

Joe Reed is one Williams or Allen injury away from starter reps. That’s the only one I’m interested in off that list

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11 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Joe Reed is one Williams or Allen injury away from starter reps. That’s the only one I’m interested in off that list

Got him for $2

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Those guys all made it through five rounds of a rookie draft for a reason - and most of the players drafted in rounds 3, 4 and 5 won't ever amount to anything as is.

Lottery tickets can hit, yes, but the percentages say you'd be just throwing that money away, as opposed to being able to spend it in-season after you see a guy come "out of nowhere". I'd put a buck or two on a few of them if you really need a few bodies but wouldn't shed a tear if I missed out.

That was my approach. Got all I wanted but one. Max bid was $6 for Mooney & Hightower,.

apparently someone wanted Hightower for $13, which was too rich for my blood.

ended up with Reed, Mooney, Warren, Proche & Quez for a grand total of $14

not really why I posted -  I didn’t change any bids since posting this. More just curious what others thought of the values. I’m kinda shocked Hightower went for that much, tbh. 

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12 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That was my approach. Got all I wanted but one. Max bid was $6 for Mooney & Hightower,.

apparently someone wanted Hightower for $13, which was too rich for my blood.

ended up with Reed, Mooney, Warren, Proche & Quez for a grand total of $14

not really why I posted -  I didn’t change any bids since posting this. More just curious what others thought of the values. I’m kinda shocked Hightower went for that much, tbh. 

Not sure why Hightower went that much.  My guess is that people love betting on the underdog rather than the highly drafted guy when a team double up's.  It's usually a massive story if they show some promise.  

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18 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:
30 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

Joe Reed is one Williams or Allen injury away from starter reps. That’s the only one I’m interested in off that list

Got him for $2

I very seriously doubt Reed would get reps over fellow rookie WR Hill or even WRs Patton and Jennings in that scenario, not to mention that RB Ekeler and TE Henry would likely get more targets. Reed is a project at WR, whereas Hill is much more polished. I think the injury that could provide more reps to Reed is if Ekeler were to get hurt. Most of those reps would still go to RBs Jackson and Kelley, but some would probably go to Reed in a hybrid/gadget role.

I realize it is just $2, but I would not expect anyone to hold Reed very long on a roster unless rosters are really deep.

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44 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I very seriously doubt Reed would get reps over fellow rookie WR Hill or even WRs Patton and Jennings in that scenario, not to mention that RB Ekeler and TE Henry would likely get more targets. Reed is a project at WR, whereas Hill is much more polished. I think the injury that could provide more reps to Reed is if Ekeler were to get hurt. Most of those reps would still go to RBs Jackson and Kelley, but some would probably go to Reed in a hybrid/gadget role.

I realize it is just $2, but I would not expect anyone to hold Reed very long on a roster unless rosters are really deep.

Draft capital for Reed far exceeds Hill. Or should we ignore draft capital? 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, I-ROK said:

Draft capital for Reed far exceeds Hill. Or should we ignore draft capital? 

No, and I didn't say it should be ignored. However:

  1. Reed was drafted early in the 5th round and Hill early in the 7th. Not much difference between 5th and 7th round prospects IMO.
  2. Hill was graded higher than Reed coming into the draft, since grading is based on positional ability, not special teams ability. Reed was known to be a project at WR, while Hill projected as a possible starting caliber slot WR. Hill's strongest attribute is route running, which is Reed's weakest attribute.
  3. Reed was drafted higher primarily to be a core special teamer and kick returner. His secondary role will be to be a hybrid/gadget player who can line up in the backfield, run jet sweeps, etc.
  4. Because Hill should be a better WR from day one, if Allen or Williams goes down, he would likely get more replacement snaps than Allen, especially with the abbreviated offseason. Neither of them is close to as good as Allen or Williams, so it seems pretty unlikely that either of them would be useful fantasy starters in an injury scenario unless in extremely deep lineup leagues.

GM Tom Telesco quotes on the two players:

Quote

On WR Joe Reed:

"Well, you kind of hit on it right there. He can do a lot of different things, we think. He played wide receiver, but they used him a lot just to get the ball in his hands — almost like a running back. Between some receiver, maybe a little bit of running back, certainly as a kickoff returner — we really like him in that position with his size. You know, 225 pounds, but he still runs very well and has a great feel for kickoff returning. To add in, covering punts and covering kicks — he can do a lot of things for us. So we'll get him in here and see where he fits. The thing that really stood out about him is how versatile he really is in some different areas."

On how Reed can complement RB Austin Ekeler:

"Well, those are good pieces to have for an offensive coordinator. His kickoff returning ability is really, really good — he's one of the best ones we saw this year in college. Even though the kickoff is de-emphasized now, you need to have a guy back there that people respect. If you don't, they're going to sky-kick it, kick it inside the five. Then, if you don't have a guy who can get it out of there, you're going to get pinned back a lot. We like him in that category, we'll kind of see how he works from a receiver/running back, but those are nice pieces to have for an offensive coordinator where he can move some players around."

On WR K.J. Hill:

"Every year, in the draft, there are always so many receivers that it seems like a couple of guys fall a little further down than you would expect. K.J. had a great career at Ohio State —  a four-year player with four years of production. He's super smart and instinctive and has a great feel to get open, which a lot of inside receivers need to have. [He has] excellent hands, he's done some punt returns, too. It was nice that he was still there in the seventh round that we could take a shot at that."

On Hill being available in the seventh round:

"Like I said before, the receiver position just because there are so many of them, it just seems like every couple years there's some guys that fall a little bit further down than you think. I don't know. Everyone's draft boards were different. Every media person's draft board was different. You never really know, but to get a really experienced receiver like that come in and have a chance to make this football team as a receiver/special teamer, I think we'll have a good opportunity for him."

:shrug: 

Edited by Just Win Baby

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31 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

No, and I didn't say it should be ignored. However:

  1. Reed was drafted early in the 5th round and Hill early in the 7th. Not much difference between 5th and 7th round prospects IMO.
  2. Hill was graded higher than Reed coming out of the draft, since grading is based on positional ability, not special teams ability. Reed was known to be a project at WR, while Hill projected as a possible starting caliber slot WR. Hill's strongest attribute is route running, which is Reed's weakest attribute.
  3. Reed was drafted higher primarily to be a core special teamer and kick returner. His secondary role will be to be a hybrid/gadget player who can line up in the backfield, run jet sweeps, etc.
  4. Because Hill should be a better WR from day one, if Allen or Williams goes down, he would likely get more replacement snaps than Allen, especially with the abbreviated offseason. Neither of them is close to as good as Allen or Williams, so it seems pretty unlikely that either of them would be useful fantasy starters in an injury scenario unless in extremely deep lineup leagues.

GM Tom Telesco quotes on the two players:

:shrug: 

Thanks for you explanation 

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Got him for $2

Who else did you get? Some decent lotto picks on that list but as others have said, they are lotto picks

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3 hours ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

Who else did you get? Some decent lotto picks on that list but as others have said, they are lotto picks

Mooney, Reed, Warren, Proche & Quez Watkins. 

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Reed is a really good athlete for his size and was one of the most promising day 3 skill players I saw in highlights this year. He has a rare combination of size, speed, and quickness. However, I would say he was drafted more for his return ability than anything else, as he was relatively unproductive in college purely as a WR. I think he's an interesting project for super deep leagues because of his athletic traits, but up to now he hasn't produced much outside of the return game and that doesn't bode very well for his chances of blossoming into a monster WR in the NFL. He's definitely an interesting ball of clay for a team to work with though.

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12 hours ago, hispeedthinmint said:

What's the general thought on value of Fournette vs Conner in PPR this year & beyond?

I'd much prefer Fournette but I think there's a case for Conner as well.  Fournette seems like the guy that would get another opportunity to be the workhorse, Conner would lead a committee instead of taking a dominant workload.  Conner is way more injury prone as well.  I have them ranked at RB17 and RB32.  

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The way I see it, Conner is an RB1 if he's on the field playing. If healed, the injuries he dealt with aren't going to have caused any lasting damage that affect his ability to perform. They were virtually all upper body injuries. And he was reasonably effective in the games he actually finished last year as well.

Obviously there's a massive risk of those injuries being a permanent fixture for him, given his time in the league so far. We're all guessing. I doubt Conner has much idea at this stage either.

If Conner is to have any value beyond this season, he needs to last the duration with the bare minimum of games missed and if he does that, I think he'll perform well. If that happens, I could see the Steeler's offering him a franchise friendly longer term deal and I think he'd probably sign it if there were decent guarantees for him. They are far more likely to just tag him though. And I think he'd play on the tag. 

In my opinion then, James Conner's range of outcomes over the coming 2 seasons are either very valuable, or zero value. I don't see any scenario where he's a mid range RB going forward. He's either performing well and getting considerably more money going into next year or out the league at the end of this season. Given the averages you'd think it's much more likely to be the latter of those two. It's not inconceivable that it's the former though.

-----

Fournette is a total mystery. From my experiences the perception of his value is minimal, even though he projects to be an RB1 in terms of opportunity next season. 

It's hard to envisage a scenario where he's a Jaguar after next season. If he's just an average performer, they wouldn't offer him a contract, if he is a superstar and wins the rushing title eg, he'd use that to get out of there ASAP.

I'd say it's much more likely he becomes a mid range guy, somewhere around the RB20-25 mark. I think I saw a good comparison to Carlos Hyde earlier. A sort of safe floor journeyman who does a job but doesn't really excite. A few years as a useful stop gap for a couple of different teams. I think that's the future for him.

All just my opinion of course.

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How are people handling their depth for 2020? It seems to be a certainty that depth will be important for 2020.

 

I was offered a trade that works out to my Henderson and pieces for Higgins and a late pick.

Henderson was putrid last year and the only reason I have him is because he was best available at 2.04. I’d love to move him but it seems like with the coronavirus that depth will be huge in 2020. Henderson should have more 2020 value than Higgins, but I desperately want to get out from under that roster space waster

Thoughts?

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21 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

How are people handling their depth for 2020? It seems to be a certainty that depth will be important for 2020.

 

I was offered a trade that works out to my Henderson and pieces for Higgins and a late pick.

Henderson was putrid last year and the only reason I have him is because he was best available at 2.04. I’d love to move him but it seems like with the coronavirus that depth will be huge in 2020. Henderson should have more 2020 value than Higgins, but I desperately want to get out from under that roster space waster

Thoughts?

I would personally treat trades with the same number-of-years window that you normally do. I agree that depth will likely matter for 2020 but a spot treatment on your roster for the sake of additional depth could backfire since you can't know what players may get sick, and/or who would get the additional production as a result. I think normal dynasty trading, which takes value over multiple seasons into account anyway (including possibilities of injuries, lost seasons etc.) still makes the most sense.

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22 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

How are people handling their depth for 2020? It seems to be a certainty that depth will be important for 2020.

 

I was offered a trade that works out to my Henderson and pieces for Higgins and a late pick.

Henderson was putrid last year and the only reason I have him is because he was best available at 2.04. I’d love to move him but it seems like with the coronavirus that depth will be huge in 2020. Henderson should have more 2020 value than Higgins, but I desperately want to get out from under that roster space waster

Thoughts?

That’s an interesting point for consideration. I have a ton of depth at WR now that I’ve been trying to use for upgrades, but maybe it’s better to have the depth this year. 
 

But I say if you hate one player and like the other, just make the move and don’t overthink it.

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I’m focusing on depth and also focusing on tryin to trade guys at top value who I think lose value by missing a year. The RBs near the end of their peak value come to mind. Zeke, Kamara, Cook. 

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2 hours ago, I-ROK said:

How are people handling their depth for 2020? It seems to be a certainty that depth will be important for 2020.

 

I was offered a trade that works out to my Henderson and pieces for Higgins and a late pick.

Henderson was putrid last year and the only reason I have him is because he was best available at 2.04. I’d love to move him but it seems like with the coronavirus that depth will be huge in 2020. Henderson should have more 2020 value than Higgins, but I desperately want to get out from under that roster space waster

Thoughts?

I wouldn't let 2020 depth concerns stop me from making this sort of deal. Both players have most of their value in the future. Much cheaper options like Malcolm Brown or Adrian Peterson can get you similar quality RB depth for this season.

I'd say that covid:

* reduces the value of vets / 2020 production compared to prospects / future production, because maybe the season will be cancelled
* reduces the value of 2021 picks, especially early ones, because maybe that draft class will be thin or hard to evaluate if the 2020 college season is disrupted
* increases the value of depth, because players (or even whole teams) are likely to miss more games
* reduces the expected 2020 production of rookies, players changing teams, and players changing coaches because of the disrupted offseason (this is more relevant in redraft)

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8 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I wouldn't let 2020 depth concerns stop me from making this sort of deal. Both players have most of their value in the future. Much cheaper options like Malcolm Brown or Adrian Peterson can get you similar quality RB depth for this season.

I'd say that covid:

* reduces the value of vets / 2020 production compared to prospects / future production, because maybe the season will be cancelled
* reduces the value of 2021 picks, especially early ones, because maybe that draft class will be thin or hard to evaluate if the 2020 college season is disrupted
* increases the value of depth, because players (or even whole teams) are likely to miss more games
* reduces the expected 2020 production of rookies, players changing teams, and players changing coaches because of the disrupted offseason (this is more relevant in redraft)

These reasons are why I’m not sure I want to sell Henderson right now. He will be more familiar with the offense than Akers, and the depth may be needed even though he is my RB5. Which if he does fairly well in 2020 then 2021 is more promising, or maybe it’s just wishful thinking 

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10 minutes ago, I-ROK said:

These reasons are why I’m not sure I want to sell Henderson right now. He will be more familiar with the offense than Akers, and the depth may be needed even though he is my RB5. Which if he does fairly well in 2020 then 2021 is more promising, or maybe it’s just wishful thinking 

Just looking at 2020, I'm generally seeing Henderson going as RB40something in redraft. And you shouldn't be willing to give all that much up just for redraft RB40something.

For what happens in 2021 and beyond, I think the weirdness in 2020 has a pretty small impact. Henderson & Akers are going to split the load in 2021 in some way (unless one of them just totally bombs), and the split between them (especially at the end of the 2021 season) is mainly going to depend on how they look in 2021. By 2022, the relevance of what happened in 2020 will be even smaller.

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19 hours ago, I-ROK said:

How are people handling their depth for 2020? It seems to be a certainty that depth will be important for 2020.

 

I was offered a trade that works out to my Henderson and pieces for Higgins and a late pick.

Henderson was putrid last year and the only reason I have him is because he was best available at 2.04. I’d love to move him but it seems like with the coronavirus that depth will be huge in 2020. Henderson should have more 2020 value than Higgins, but I desperately want to get out from under that roster space waster

Thoughts?

I like Henderson decently relative to his current value (more because I don't believe in Akers than because I do believe in Henderson) but I think this deal is a no brainer.  Henderson's current value is around a mid-3rd and while I would pay that for him pretty happily, Tee Higgins is a guy who's typically going in the early 2nd.  I would much rather have Higgins than Henderson and the current situation with the virus does nothing to change that for me.

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There seems to be a lot more uncertainty about the 2020 season now. So, I'm wondering how people would value QBs like Rodgers and Big Ben in terms of 2021 rookie picks in a 12 team SuperFlex dynasty? I currently have Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Herbert, Dalton, Hill and Sudfeld as my QBs. I won the league last year. In terms of Total Points Scored last season ARod was the QB10. Fitzpatrick was QB17 and had about 38 less total points than Rodgers. In terms of overall scoring (all offensive and defensive positions) Rodgers finished #18 and Fitzpatrick was #42. Fitz averaged about 1 pt less/game played than Rodgers.

The owner of ARod and Big Ben just put them on the Trade Block and says he is looking for young prospects or '21 draft picks in return for them.

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15 hours ago, northern exposure said:

There seems to be a lot more uncertainty about the 2020 season now. So, I'm wondering how people would value QBs like Rodgers and Big Ben in terms of 2021 rookie picks in a 12 team SuperFlex dynasty? I currently have Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Herbert, Dalton, Hill and Sudfeld as my QBs. I won the league last year. In terms of Total Points Scored last season ARod was the QB10. Fitzpatrick was QB17 and had about 38 less total points than Rodgers. In terms of overall scoring (all offensive and defensive positions) Rodgers finished #18 and Fitzpatrick was #42. Fitz averaged about 1 pt less/game played than Rodgers.

The owner of ARod and Big Ben just put them on the Trade Block and says he is looking for young prospects or '21 draft picks in return for them.

This is an interesting one. In a sense a lost 2020 would be subtractive for older QBs since obviously they age another year, but not in the typical sense since they also have one less year of abuse to their bodies. My thinking would be if you've proven you can win without these older QBs there's not much reason to buy them now. Dynasty players are so age-focused that a year of additional aging without production would devalue players like Ben and Rodgers that much more, even accounting for a year off from getting hit. The 2021 class may be really tough to evaluate, but you still have a chance at an improving asset. Unless one of the older QBs is the last missing piece to a possible title run in 2020 and 2021, I think you can stay put and continue to figure QB out as you have.

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18 hours ago, northern exposure said:

There seems to be a lot more uncertainty about the 2020 season now. So, I'm wondering how people would value QBs like Rodgers and Big Ben in terms of 2021 rookie picks in a 12 team SuperFlex dynasty? I currently have Tannehill, Fitzpatrick, Herbert, Dalton, Hill and Sudfeld as my QBs. I won the league last year. In terms of Total Points Scored last season ARod was the QB10. Fitzpatrick was QB17 and had about 38 less total points than Rodgers. In terms of overall scoring (all offensive and defensive positions) Rodgers finished #18 and Fitzpatrick was #42. Fitz averaged about 1 pt less/game played than Rodgers.

The owner of ARod and Big Ben just put them on the Trade Block and says he is looking for young prospects or '21 draft picks in return for them.

I would be more willing to buy Rodgers for a 2021 1st round pick than I would Ben. Rodgers is 2 years younger. I don't think Ben will play past 40. I see Rodgers on another team before his career is over. I think you get 5 years out of him.

Tannehill played amazing last year. I don't expect him to maintain that, even if he is still good. Rodgers would help you.

Does anyone have a good ADP source for dynasty superflex leagues?

I found this which is just 3 mock drafts. Rogers really low here at 55.

Then this although Im not sure what its based on. Rodgers is 33 there. This isn't necessarily dynasty ADP though. There are a lot of superflex best ball leagues, but thats different.

I tried just looking on MFL ADP and the best choice seems to be non rookie only drafts, as those drafts skew everything. Rodgers is at 53 here although this does not reflect the of scarcity at the QB position.

Anyhow according to this ADP where Cam Akers is being drafted ahead of Aaron Rodgers maybe you could get Rodgers for less than a 2021 1st round pick? 

I dunno what do you all think?

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I would be more willing to buy Rodgers for a 2021 1st round pick than I would Ben. Rodgers is 2 years younger. I don't think Ben will play past 40. I see Rodgers on another team before his career is over. I think you get 5 years out of him.

Tannehill played amazing last year. I don't expect him to maintain that, even if he is still good. Rodgers would help you.

Does anyone have a good ADP source for dynasty superflex leagues?

I found this which is just 3 mock drafts. Rogers really low here at 55.

Then this although Im not sure what its based on. Rodgers is 33 there. This isn't necessarily dynasty ADP though. There are a lot of superflex best ball leagues, but thats different.

I tried just looking on MFL ADP and the best choice seems to be non rookie only drafts, as those drafts skew everything. Rodgers is at 53 here although this does not reflect the of scarcity at the QB position.

Anyhow according to this ADP where Cam Akers is being drafted ahead of Aaron Rodgers maybe you could get Rodgers for less than a 2021 1st round pick? 

I dunno what do you all think?

I'd agree that Rodgers in a superflex is a much better buy as I also believe he will still have a decent shelf life, but I also do not think he is likely to be a regular top 10 QB (definitely not top 5 like he was), however, that still puts him in the low end starter range and very high on the superflex options.

I think he would be worth taking a sniff - try and gauge what the other owner is looking to get. I'm not sure you necessarily need to come out guns ablazing to get him - after all he is an aging asset in a dynasty league and as was noted in the OP about him, his PPG differential was not huge over Fitz, but he should be much more consistent over the next few years. If you'd prefer to deal picks for him, come in offering a 2nd rounder, maybe add in a lower level prospect with the pick as a sweetener. Or, if it seems like he'd prefer a younger player over the pick, offer up a mid level prospect with a 3rd rounder. At least with that you are not totally lowballing, but are leaving some wiggle room for negotiation. It may end up being worth it to deal your 1st for him, but that would probably be the max I would want to offer.

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47 minutes ago, Matt's Eagles said:

Price Check Dionte Johnson

Hold

Capitalize on hype and sell for a 2021 mid 1st?

Buy for a late 2021 1st?

 

I wouldn't sell for a 2021 mid, and I would absolutely try to buy with a 2021 1st

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I recently bought Diontae straight up for Pittman if that helps anybody. So, current late 1st or so I guess.

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7 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

Price Check Dionte Johnson

Hold

Capitalize on hype and sell for a 2021 mid 1st?

Buy for a late 2021 1st?

 

I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a top 2 pick in this draft. I'd draft him before all other rookies but Taylor or CEH.

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10 hours ago, Matt's Eagles said:

Price Check Dionte Johnson

Hold

Capitalize on hype and sell for a 2021 mid 1st?

Buy for a late 2021 1st?

 

First if you have him hold. 
second you should buy for a late pick 2021.

 

 

 

 

 

third... there is no third.

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8 hours ago, Milkman said:

I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a top 2 pick in this draft. I'd draft him before all other rookies but Taylor or CEH.

Wow, good luck with that.

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Saw a lot of DJ Chark trades in the trade thread so what is his value and why are lots of people dealing him away?  No faith in Minshew?  

I haven't updated my dynasty rankings in a while but he'd be around WR15-20 probably.  See him going cheaper than that it seems.  

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10 hours ago, Milkman said:

I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a top 2 pick in this draft. I'd draft him before all other rookies but Taylor or CEH.

Wow. Goodness, I wished I owned him in dynasty. He would be moving teams like right now. 

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Saw a lot of DJ Chark trades in the trade thread so what is his value and why are lots of people dealing him away?  No faith in Minshew?  

I haven't updated my dynasty rankings in a while but he'd be around WR15-20 probably.  See him going cheaper than that it seems.  

I have him higher than most. He's a top 10 WR in dynasty for me. I believe in Minshew though. I agree with you though Chark's value is tied to Minshew. If you dont like Minshew to be at least a top 15 QB it's hard to like Chark a lot this year. 

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

I have him higher than most. He's a top 10 WR in dynasty for me. I believe in Minshew though. I agree with you though Chark's value is tied to Minshew. If you dont like Minshew to be at least a top 15 QB it's hard to like Chark a lot this year. 

What would be anyone's basis to believe Minshew will be a top 15 QB, this season or ever?

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3 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

What would be anyone's basis to believe Minshew will be a top 15 QB, this season or ever?

He was QB19 in PPG last season, he can't improve even a little?

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2 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

He was QB19 in PPG last season, he can't improve even a little?

I have him at QB21 last season, so it depends on scoring system.

Yes, he can improve... but the QB landscape will also change around him. For example:

  • Last season, Minshew's ppg was just above Brady, Garoppolo, and Cousins. What is more likely, that Minshew finishes higher than all 3 of these guys again, or that some of them pass Minshew?
  • Burrow enters the mix, as does Bridgewater. Maybe even Tua.
  • Roethlisberger is back.

Are you predicting Minshew as a top 15 QB?

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

What would be anyone's basis to believe Minshew will be a top 15 QB, this season or ever?

This is so laughable it's hard to answer. 

I mean Minshew doesn't even have to play any better than he did and he could get into the top 15 with just a few key injuries. 

Not saying those injuries are likely or needed. Just trying to show how your read that it's basically impossible is funny to me. 

Edited by Milkman
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3 hours ago, Milkman said:

I have him higher than most. He's a top 10 WR in dynasty for me. I believe in Minshew though. I agree with you though Chark's value is tied to Minshew. If you dont like Minshew to be at least a top 15 QB it's hard to like Chark a lot this year. 

I like Chark, especially this year. I think that defense is terrible and they will be passing a lot to catch up.

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On 6/22/2020 at 10:04 AM, Biabreakable said:

I would be more willing to buy Rodgers for a 2021 1st round pick than I would Ben. Rodgers is 2 years younger. I don't think Ben will play past 40. I see Rodgers on another team before his career is over. I think you get 5 years out of him.

Tannehill played amazing last year. I don't expect him to maintain that, even if he is still good. Rodgers would help you.

Does anyone have a good ADP source for dynasty superflex leagues?

I found this which is just 3 mock drafts. Rogers really low here at 55.

Then this although Im not sure what its based on. Rodgers is 33 there. This isn't necessarily dynasty ADP though. There are a lot of superflex best ball leagues, but thats different.

I tried just looking on MFL ADP and the best choice seems to be non rookie only drafts, as those drafts skew everything. Rodgers is at 53 here although this does not reflect the of scarcity at the QB position.

Anyhow according to this ADP where Cam Akers is being drafted ahead of Aaron Rodgers maybe you could get Rodgers for less than a 2021 1st round pick? 

I dunno what do you all think?

Fantasymojo has ADP for FFPC leagues including a separate list for SF leagues.  Rodgers is 64 overall, QB16.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

What would be anyone's basis to believe Minshew will be a top 15 QB, this season or ever?

Why in the heck not?  The dude just put up like the 6th best rookie QB season of all-time and no one seems to care.

Prorating Minshew's numbers out to 16 games from 14 just for comparison's sake.

Player A: 3738yds, 24 TD, 8 INT, 7.0ypa, 91.2rtg, 400 rush yds

Player B: 3722yds, 20 TD, 12 INT, 6.9ypa, 87.4rtg, 544 rush yds

Let's play a game of "which one of those guys is the consensus #3 dynasty QB, and which one is Gardner Minshew?".

(Hint: the one with the better numbers is Minshew)

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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Also look at Chark's splits between Minshew games and not. He is the unquestioned #1 WR in the Jags offense. Minshew has chemistry with him. As a rookie Minshew showed great playmaking ability, pocket presence, and patience to go through progressions, something rarely seen in a rookie. IMO he hit a rookie wall and that people are expecting way too much from rookie QBs these days. He had a *great* rookie season. Also, he studies and has been known to be getting after it this offseason. I think the sky is the limit for him if that franchise wasn't so dysfunctional.  Top 15 FF QB? Why not? I'm aiming higher for my starting QB, frankly, because even though I think Minshew will be a star, I don't know that he will ever be top 5 for FF. I loved getting him at the end of the 8th round in a SF startup, and he is practically free as a backup in redraft. But if you want to wait on QB, he isn't a bad option at all. I had a couple successful teams last year where I had Cam as my starter week 1 and ended up cashing with a combo of Minshew and Daniel Jones. If he takes a modest step forward he is easily top 15 and worth more than his price. 

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Yeah my high Chark ranking is because I like Minshew to break into the top 15 QB this year. It's understandable if people are sceptical he could easily fail and the Jags could be drafting #1 next year where they would almost certainly take a QB but Gruden has a decent track record of developing QB. He did well with Cousins. I can see a scenario where Minshew becomes a better QB than Cousins. If that happens Chark will explode into the top 5 dynasty WR rankings. 

You just have to look over the situation and place your bets. If you wait until it's a sure thing you'll never get Chark. Now is the time if you believe in their chemistry and Minshews skills. 

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Posted (edited)

Price Check on Kenyan Drake?

 

And what would you need added to DK or DJ Moore to move MT? In 0.5 PPR?

Edited by KChusker

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12 minutes ago, KChusker said:

Price Check on Kenyan Drake?

 

And what would you need added to DK or DJ Moore to move MT? In 0.5 PPR?

Not sure on a price check but you better grab Edmonds if you're going to count on Drake and I wouldn't trade for Drake without securing Edmonds too. 

Drake is in a great spot no doubt though. If you put the starting games for all 3 RB that started for the Cards together it would added up to RB2 in FF last year. That offense should take a step forward and have some solid positive TD regression this year. They ran pretty bad inside the 20's. 

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Fantasymojo has ADP for FFPC leagues including a separate list for SF leagues.  Rodgers is 64 overall, QB16.

Huh even lower there. Thanks for the info.

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2 hours ago, KChusker said:

Price Check on Kenyan Drake?

 

And what would you need added to DK or DJ Moore to move MT? In 0.5 PPR?

I wouldn't add anything from DK or DJ to get MT.  I'd rather keep the youth and the likely top15 season they'll both have.  Whatever the extra cost is to move up to MT it's not worth it to me when he's only going to go down in value.  Metcalf is tied to Russ for the next few years, DJ Moore is likely getting a top rookie QB to grow with and has a 1000 yard season on his resume with Kyle freaking Allen.  Better seasons are to come and if they haven't already, they should pass MT in value in a year.  I wouldn't give that up.  

No clue on Drake, but I wouldn't be buying him personally.  I've seen him ranked all over the place.  You either love him or hate him, not much in between.  

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