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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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1 hour ago, BearsFan4Life said:

No PPR .. Standard Scoring

Pick 1.01 - Is CEH the obvious pick now or do some still like Taylor long term despite CEH short term value?

 

I still prefer Taylor, but CEH is a nice consolation prize.

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On 8/4/2020 at 9:58 AM, hispeedthinmint said:

Price check on Michael Thomas in PPR? I just acquired him for DJ Moore, 1.11 & 4.11 2020 rookie picks & thinking of trying to trade him if I can get a haul lol

I think you're going to have a hard time flipping him for a profit so I would probably keep him, unless you want to basically undo the deal you made earlier.  IMO you paid pretty close to top of the market prices for MT.  I probably would have stuck with Moore and the picks.

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43 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

Price check on Derrius Guice? What would you want in 2020 Rookie pick(s) to move him? 16 tm ppr dynasty league.

I only have him on a team I am rebuilding and would want about 1.08.  On that squad I don't mind holding and seeing if he hits.  I just got this team this offseason so I don't have a ton of investment in Guice.

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On 8/5/2020 at 8:37 AM, BearsFan4Life said:

No PPR .. Standard Scoring

Pick 1.01 - Is CEH the obvious pick now or do some still like Taylor long term despite CEH short term value?

 

i have the 1.01 in my draft this weekend and plan on taking Taylor (I realize that I'm in the minority).

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1 hour ago, northern exposure said:

Price check on Derrius Guice? What would you want in 2020 Rookie pick(s) to move him? 16 tm ppr dynasty league.

I think he's a hold. Nobody is going to give you a first for him and that's probably what you want.

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1 minute ago, wgoldsph said:

I think he's a hold. Nobody is going to give you a first for him and that's probably what you want.

100% agree

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10 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I think he's a hold. Nobody is going to give you a first for him and that's probably what you want.

Thanks. Yeah I was hoping for a late 1st from a RB needy team, but the owner is targeting Le'Veon Bell instead.

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12 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

Thanks. Yeah I was hoping for a late 1st from a RB needy team, but the owner is targeting Le'Veon Bell instead.

Would love to move Bell for a late first

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5 hours ago, northern exposure said:

Price check on Derrius Guice? What would you want in 2020 Rookie pick(s) to move him? 16 tm ppr dynasty league.

He’s a bum. If somebody offers you a turkey sandwich for him, take it. Even if the turkey sandwich doesn’t even have mayo or cheese on it, I don’t care. Don’t be greedy, take the deal before the guy changes his mind.

Guice’s value is propped up by the rookie hype, which was 2 years ago now. These are the guys to avoid or use in a trade to acquire somebody who’s actually done something in the nfl.

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17 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

He’s a bum. If somebody offers you a turkey sandwich for him, take it. Even if the turkey sandwich doesn’t even have mayo or cheese on it, I don’t care. Don’t be greedy, take the deal before the guy changes his mind.

Guice’s value is propped up by the rookie hype, which was 2 years ago now. These are the guys to avoid or use in a trade to acquire somebody who’s actually done something in the nfl.

Except for the fact he has been good in the NFL when he has played

I didn't love him coming out the price has gotten low enough

I'd say early 2nd--in a smaller league even a mid 2nd might be enough

Though if the current owner drafted him I can see a "go down with the ship" mindset

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, KChusker said:

Except for the fact he has been good in the NFL when he has played

I didn't love him coming out the price has gotten low enough

I'd say early 2nd--in a smaller league even a mid 2nd might be enough

Though if the current owner drafted him I can see a "go down with the ship" mindset

I won’t play the injury prone card because I’m against it, but some people might take issue with him having only played like 5 or 6 games. He’s been decent in his limited action as part of a 3 man committee. He couldn’t muster a start over a 34 year old last year, mainly serving as a compliment to Adrian Peterson. 

Not a lot of confidence from what he’s done in the NFL.

edit: so Guice did start his first game. After which Peterson started the rest and got the majority of carries.

Edited by cloppbeast

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7 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

He’s a bum. If somebody offers you a turkey sandwich for him, take it. Even if the turkey sandwich doesn’t even have mayo or cheese on it, I don’t care. Don’t be greedy, take the deal before the guy changes his mind.

Guice’s value is propped up by the rookie hype, which was 2 years ago now. These are the guys to avoid or use in a trade to acquire somebody who’s actually done something in the nfl.

This is so wrong. If he's a bum because he's been hurt, then call him a bum. He's produced on the field. And you know who else started their career hurt a ton, Fred Taylor. He overcame that, and Guice can too. 

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

This is so wrong. If he's a bum because he's been hurt, then call him a bum. He's produced on the field. And you know who else started their career hurt a ton, Fred Taylor. He overcame that, and Guice can too. 

Maybe I'm missing some context regarding Guice, but I don't remember a healthy Fred Taylor ever playing behind a 34 year old. Dalvin Cook is a more recent example of a running back proving wrong the injury prone label. He also never played second fiddle to anybody. 

Like I said in an above post, idc about the injuries. I'm more concerned about lack of having done anything in the NFL besides having a great game vs. Carolina. It's a question of talent. Emperically there's a very short list of successful running backs who've started one game and totalled less than 300 rushing yards thru their first two seasons.

 

 

Edited by cloppbeast

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14 hours ago, Devil_Dog said:

i have the 1.01 in my draft this weekend and plan on taking Taylor (I realize that I'm in the minority).

I also have 1.01 for standard scoring and am going Taylor myself as well.  I already have CMC and DHenry so not in need of Taylor this year

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20 hours ago, cloppbeast said:

He’s (Guice) a bum. If somebody offers you a turkey sandwich for him, take it. Even if the turkey sandwich doesn’t even have mayo or cheese on it, I don’t care. Don’t be greedy, take the deal before the guy changes his mind.

 

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17 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

 

I mean you were still wrong about his talent

He is an idiot though and it will cost him his career most likely

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11 hours ago, KChusker said:

I mean you were still wrong about his talent

we will never know.

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I am in the middle of trade talks in a 14 team ppr dynasty and we have all parts of the deal negotiated except one. With the recent Guice news (he's an idiot), my RB depth has taken a hit. The other owner has agreed to add one of the following to what I will get : Boston Scott, Duke Johnson or Damien Harris. I am a contending team, so which one do I ask for?

I have considered asking for Hayden Hurst because I have Howard, Thomas and Herndon as my TEs, but that ask will probably re-open negotiations and scrap the deal we have mostly negotiated. Hurst might not be that big of a deal because Blake Jarwin is a FA in this league.

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What does everybody  think the value of Ezekiel Elliott is?

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45 minutes ago, northern exposure said:

I am in the middle of trade talks in a 14 team ppr dynasty and we have all parts of the deal negotiated except one. With the recent Guice news (he's an idiot), my RB depth has taken a hit. The other owner has agreed to add one of the following to what I will get : Boston Scott, Duke Johnson or Damien Harris. I am a contending team, so which one do I ask for?

I have considered asking for Hayden Hurst because I have Howard, Thomas and Herndon as my TEs, but that ask will probably re-open negotiations and scrap the deal we have mostly negotiated. Hurst might not be that big of a deal because Blake Jarwin is a FA in this league.

I’d go with Harris if a te is not an option

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1 hour ago, northern exposure said:

I am in the middle of trade talks in a 14 team ppr dynasty and we have all parts of the deal negotiated except one. With the recent Guice news (he's an idiot), my RB depth has taken a hit. The other owner has agreed to add one of the following to what I will get : Boston Scott, Duke Johnson or Damien Harris. I am a contending team, so which one do I ask for?

I have considered asking for Hayden Hurst because I have Howard, Thomas and Herndon as my TEs, but that ask will probably re-open negotiations and scrap the deal we have mostly negotiated. Hurst might not be that big of a deal because Blake Jarwin is a FA in this league.

It depends what you want out of a back. Scott and Johnson have no possibility of being a back on their team, but Harris does. That said, Harris is likely relegated to early down work only because of James White's presence in the backfield. You could have nothing with Harris because he basically redshirted last year and Belichick didn't mince words about Sony Michel being good save for blocking last year (whether this is true or not is up for interpretation, what isn't up for interpretation is how often Belichick defended Michel). So really Scott is in a situation where he's a diminutive back even to Sanders, Duke Johnson is second fiddle to David Johnson (who has, in my opinion, major injury and age concerns).

I dunno. Depends on your tolerance for risk and whether you take the long view or are playing in a window. On pure talent, I like Scott I guess. Other than that, I shrug.

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1 hour ago, rockaction said:

What does everybody  think the value of Ezekiel Elliott is?

That of a top 3 RB, obviously.

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13 minutes ago, Vandelay said:

That of a top 3 RB, obviously.

Yeah, that is indeed a given. What would you move him for? Assume you're really in no position to win now. One of the young RBs and a first? Would you move him for Dobbins and Jacobs? What would you say to that as the Dobbins/Jacobs owner?

If that's too specific, what sort of package would you be looking for if you were the Elliott owner? What would you give up to get him?

I mean, fairly assessed, Elliott has two more years of peak production left in him, if that. It might behoove one to sell now rather than wait for the decline. He'll be scoring points on somebody else's team, just not yours. (But you're not winning now.) 

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3 hours ago, northern exposure said:

I am in the middle of trade talks in a 14 team ppr dynasty and we have all parts of the deal negotiated except one. With the recent Guice news (he's an idiot), my RB depth has taken a hit. The other owner has agreed to add one of the following to what I will get : Boston Scott, Duke Johnson or Damien Harris. I am a contending team, so which one do I ask for?

I have considered asking for Hayden Hurst because I have Howard, Thomas and Herndon as my TEs, but that ask will probably re-open negotiations and scrap the deal we have mostly negotiated. Hurst might not be that big of a deal because Blake Jarwin is a FA in this league.

I'd much rather have Harris of those guys. 

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30 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, that is indeed a given. What would you move him for? Assume you're really in no position to win now. One of the young RBs and a first? Would you move him for Dobbins and Jacobs? What would you say to that as the Dobbins/Jacobs owner?

If that's too specific, what sort of package would you be looking for if you were the Elliott owner? What would you give up to get him?

I mean, fairly assessed, Elliott has two more years of peak production left in him, if that. It might behoove one to sell now rather than wait for the decline. He'll be scoring points on somebody else's team, just not yours. (But you're not winning now.) 

I own Elliott in one league where I am very competitive.  I don't think I would give him up right now for fair value.

The league I don't own him in I need RB help and would be willing to pay something like OBJ/Evans and 2021 1st (early).  I agree that he will have a decline coming, but I would think it would be more around 3-4 years.  

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2 minutes ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I own Elliott in one league where I am very competitive.  I don't think I would give him up right now for fair value.

The league I don't own him in I need RB help and would be willing to pay something like OBJ/Evans and 2021 1st (early).  I agree that he will have a decline coming, but I would think it would be more around 3-4 years.  

Thanks. That's a definite start in beginning to understand it. Probably look for teams with RB scarcity, sure, but what if I'm thin at RB and want an RB back (only younger). I'm becoming more and more convinced that twenty-six is the last year to really get something out of a running back, and the other two years are just fading into the limelight, sometimes not gracefully.

I guess, then, this becomes a referendum of sorts on that. How does one value age at RB? Recent work shows that any top ten finish after twenty-six is incredibly rare.

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7 hours ago, rockaction said:

Thanks. That's a definite start in beginning to understand it. Probably look for teams with RB scarcity, sure, but what if I'm thin at RB and want an RB back (only younger). I'm becoming more and more convinced that twenty-six is the last year to really get something out of a running back, and the other two years are just fading into the limelight, sometimes not gracefully.

I guess, then, this becomes a referendum of sorts on that. How does one value age at RB? Recent work shows that any top ten finish after twenty-six is incredibly rare.

I think this is recency bias.

Remember a few years ago when all of the RBs entering the NFL were so bad that everyone became convinced RBs would no longer be drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft, and that the key to dynasty was to ignore RB and just load up on WRs to the point where 18 of the first 21 picks in dynasty startup drafts were WRs?

Those are the RBs that are 26-28 years old right now.

I don't think it's that 26 is the age of death for a RB.  I just think it's that the guys that are in that age range right now came from the worst RB generation of our lifetimes, and there were only a few good ones to begin with.

Prior to that generation of RBs there is an unending list of stud RBs that were still studs at age 26 and beyond.  Peterson, Lynch, McCoy, Tomlinson, Edge, Forte, Faulk, Murray, Foster, Charles, MJD, Turner, Gore, Tiki, Taylor, and on and on it goes.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think this is recency bias.

Remember a few years ago when all of the RBs entering the NFL were so bad that everyone became convinced RBs would no longer be drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft, and that the key to dynasty was to ignore RB and just load up on WRs to the point where 18 of the first 21 picks in dynasty startup drafts were WRs?

Those are the RBs that are 26-28 years old right now.

I don't think it's that 26 is the age of death for a RB.  I just think it's that the guys that are in that age range right now came from the worst RB generation of our lifetimes, and there were only a few good ones to begin with.

Prior to that generation of RBs there is an unending list of stud RBs that were still studs at age 26 and beyond.  Peterson, Lynch, McCoy, Tomlinson, Edge, Forte, Faulk, Murray, Foster, Charles, MJD, Turner, Gore, Tiki, Taylor, and on and on it goes.

As the saying goes, it's better to trade a RB a year too early than a year too late.

Edited by JohnnyU

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28 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

As the saying goes, it's better to trade a RB a year too early than a year too late.

I agree its better to sell before someone hits a cliff, but this could be a case where someone is relevant for many years past when he is sold.  Selling before age 26 season and he is a stud many years beyond that would not be just 1 year too soon.

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1 hour ago, smbkrypt24 said:

I agree its better to sell before someone hits a cliff, but this could be a case where someone is relevant for many years past when he is sold.  Selling before age 26 season and he is a stud many years beyond that would not be just 1 year too soon.

Of course, but that's the beauty or ugliness of it.  I wouldn't use age as a reason to trade someone.  I use what I see on the field and I really like YPC.  Also, the QB and offensive scheme projections. 

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Of course, but that's the beauty or ugliness of it.  I wouldn't use age as a reason to trade someone.  I use what I see on the field and I really like YPC.  Also, the QB and offensive scheme projections. 


This is probably a discussion for another thread but YPC is the most useless stat you could possibly use to evaluate any RB. It is awful. It has almost no applicable value in real life or fantasy. Warren Sharp has done a ton of analysis on this and so has Harstad I believe, it’s worth doing a search on Twitter and just reading some of the arguments. It is really a terrible stat to put any weight behind at all. 

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:


This is probably a discussion for another thread but YPC is the most useless stat you could possibly use to evaluate any RB. It is awful. It has almost no applicable value in real life or fantasy. Warren Sharp has done a ton of analysis on this and so has Harstad I believe, it’s worth doing a search on Twitter and just reading some of the arguments. It is really a terrible stat to put any weight behind at all. 

I disagree.  It can be either a result of a bad OL or a bad RB's lack of vision or burst, either way I don't want any part of.  I also value yards after contact and vision.

Edited by JohnnyU

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On 8/9/2020 at 3:31 PM, JohnnyU said:

I disagree.  It can be either a result of a bad OL or a bad RB's lack of vision or burst, either way I don't want any part of.  I also value yards after contact and vision.


Hey I’m not here to convince you, what’s important to you in a player eval doesn’t effect my rosters and vice versa. Just thought you might find the data interesting. 

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I’d get CMC. You could always counter to get another player or pick back in the deal.

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I was offered CMC in dynasty PPR for my Henry & D. Hopkins or Dalvin Cook & Hopkins. I passed. Am I overvaluing my guys?

I also have Barkley & Fournette @ RB (Start 2 RB, 3 WR & 2 flex) & have Tyreek, M. Evans, MT, Golladay, AR15, Landry, Harry @ WR as well

That starting lineup would be ship worthy. Hopkins doesn’t hurt you much with your we stable. Do it

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

I was offered CMC in dynasty PPR for my Henry & D. Hopkins or Dalvin Cook & Hopkins. I passed. Am I overvaluing my guys?

I also have Barkley & Fournette @ RB (Start 2 RB, 3 WR & 2 flex) & have Tyreek, M. Evans, MT, Golladay, AR15, Landry, Harry @ WR as well

I love CMC but I feel like that’s too much to pay in both offers.

Good opening salvo, though.
 

magbe see if you can give up a different RB, like Fournettte.. :shrug: 

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15 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

He doesn't seem to like Fournette. Maybe something like Henry + AR15 or Golladay for CMC & 2020 2nd round pick?

I like Henry almost as much as CMC. 

AR15 & Golloday are both risers & is want to keep both.

if you could turn Hopkins + “something you don’t need” into CMC, that’s the move.

because as nice as a get as CMC is, you don’t need to make a deal to win. Your team is stacked.

why overpay for a player when you’re already killin it? 

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Price check: Lamar Jackson.

12 Team, Super flex, 4pt for passing Td's.

Have been offered a 21 1st, 22 1st, 23 1st, and Tyrod. 

My current QB's are Lamar, Herbert, Lock, Taysom Hill, and Rosen (lol).

Thanks in advance.

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13 minutes ago, osiriskid said:

Price check: Lamar Jackson.

12 Team, Super flex, 4pt for passing Td's.

Have been offered a 21 1st, 22 1st, 23 1st, and Tyrod. 

My current QB's are Lamar, Herbert, Lock, Taysom Hill, and Rosen (lol).

Thanks in advance.

I know that "3 firsts" looks sexy at first glance but when you have an asset like Lamar in superflex you can't be trading for random firsts, especially when two of them are so far out. I know there are differing views on the value of future picks, but personally a 22 1st (let alone a 23 1st) doesn't have much value to me unless you are in a genuine rebuild.

I'd say if you're going to consider trading Lamar in superflex you need to get a QB downgrade back in the trade (Tyrod doesn't count lol) and, if picks are included, you need to do this closer to next year's draft so you know what range of the draft you're getting. 

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23 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I like Henry almost as much as CMC. 

AR15 & Golloday are both risers & is want to keep both.

if you could turn Hopkins + “something you don’t need” into CMC, that’s the move.

because as nice as a get as CMC is, you don’t need to make a deal to win. Your team is stacked.

why overpay for a player when you’re already killin it? 

Why have guys sitting on your bench when you can upgrade a starter to CMC? This is PPR. CMC is 2.5 years younger. Henry can’t touch CMC.

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12 minutes ago, Shrugs said:

Why have guys sitting on your bench when you can upgrade a starter to CMC? This is PPR. CMC is 2.5 years younger. Henry can’t touch CMC.

Exactly.  CMC has outscored Henry by 10ppg+ each of the last two years which is an insane amount.  In fantasy points Derrick Henry is closer to Duke Johnson than he is to CMC.

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Shrugs said:

Why have guys sitting on your bench when you can upgrade a starter to CMC? This is PPR. CMC is 2.5 years younger. Henry can’t touch CMC.

First dude to get injured he’ll have his answer. ;)

depth is important. Not everyone values it the same. I see it as a luxury that’s good to have. 
 

and why not try to get CMC without losing his top bench dudes? 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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15 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Exactly.  CMC has outscored Henry by 10ppg+ each of the last two years which is an insane amount.  In fantasy points Derrick Henry is closer to Duke Johnson than he is to CMC.

Past performance, future guarantee & all that. 

i’m not against acquiring CMC. But why not try to have CMC/Henry? 

i just think the first couple offers were overpaying. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t want dude to go get him. Think I said as much. 

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

You don't think I'd be making a huge overpay? I do. Maybe I'm biased lol

I saw both as overpay.  A deal should be able to be made without giving up Cook or Henry. 

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16 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Valid point. Maybe Fournette + Hopkins then. Although AR15 & Golladay are bench guys for me with my lineup.

I would do that in a heartbeat if I was you!

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1 hour ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Valid point. Maybe Fournette + Hopkins then. Although AR15 & Golladay are bench guys for me with my lineup.

If he’ll take any of those combos as a counter, go for it. 

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I have CMC in half-PPR dynasty, and if you offered me Henry and Hopkins, I wouldn’t take it.

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I would give Hopkins + Henry for CMC, especially with your stacked roster. I predict that your roster will score more points if it has McCaffrey on it.

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