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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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I'm close to Sanders > Jacobs > Taylor. Just the way I see it. 

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1 minute ago, Zyphros said:

Guess I'm the only one that thinks it's Sanders easily over the others  

Sanders >> Taylor >> Jacobs to me.  I know Sanders and Taylor can hit home runs, I don't know that about Jacobs.  That's a calling card to me, Sanders gets the nod because of great pass catching work as well where the other 2 are a little iffy in that area.  

I'm much more torn on JT vs Sanders than either of them vs Jacobs. Won't argue with anyone that prefers Sanders though. I get the appeal, which is why i have him most places. 

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Well, went with Jacobs, and almost got Taylor at 2.3 lol.  Ten team keep 3 league.  There was some questionable drafting.

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6 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

He shouldn't be on waivers in any TE required leagues. He is a top 15 dynasty TE right now.

We're switching to faab this year and waivers just unlocked. He's the clear cut #1 target.

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8 hours ago, DirtyCashDylan said:

What kind of faab do we think Hayden Hurst is worth? I'm sure he'll be starting on the waivers in a lot of leagues. 

Depending on format, up to 100%. If he's worth more than 1/12 of the total value of all the players who came off blind bid waivers last year, then 100% is reasonable.

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5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Depending on format, up to 100%. If he's worth more than 1/12 of the total value of all the players who came off blind bid waivers last year, then 100% is reasonable.

I took a shot at 33% but the winning bid was 80%

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Value check on Moss (preseason hype) vs Dillon (preseason leg photos) vs Ronald Jones (preseason love/hate)?

How do they stack up against one another in dynasty?  What’s their pick value?

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21 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Value check on Moss (preseason hype) vs Dillon (preseason leg photos) vs Ronald Jones (preseason love/hate)?

How do they stack up against one another in dynasty?  What’s their pick value?

I like Moss the best as a player out of those three but he’s not without any obstacles as Singletary is a very good RB and is the incumbent.

Personally I think Jones is terrible but fortunately for him he has virtually no competition for snaps this year and will not be the focus of opposing defenses.

I wasn’t a Dillon fan as a prospect but I do trust the Packer organization so I may turn out to be wrong about that.

I don’t think anything has really changed with their value yet, so I’d put them all in the 2.04-2.10 range where they were originally drafted.

Why pay for mere hype at this point? Let’s see it happen on the field before we increase their value.

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Price check on Marquise Brown?  Seems likely to me his value only increases given full health, which I’m not sure we saw last year, but the overall offense is due for regression. 

I was asked for Hollywood and Zack Moss for Akers, and while I certainly prefer Akers to Moss, I’m thinking Brown might go HAM. 

Am I crazy to expect Brown’s volume increase to overcome the TD regression of the overall offense?  Are they too run heavy for him to ever get sufficient volume (especially with Andrews as the de facto number 1 passing game option)?

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8 minutes ago, JFS171 said:

Price check on Marquise Brown?  Seems likely to me his value only increases given full health, which I’m not sure we saw last year, but the overall offense is due for regression. 

I was asked for Hollywood and Zack Moss for Akers, and while I certainly prefer Akers to Moss, I’m thinking Brown might go HAM. 

Am I crazy to expect Brown’s volume increase to overcome the TD regression of the overall offense?  Are they too run heavy for him to ever get sufficient volume (especially with Andrews as the de facto number 1 passing game option)?

I think he is going to go 4 for 50 one week and 9 for 190 and 2 TDs the next. Better in bestball. But mid 1st seems right. I moved Ronald Jones and 2.12 for him a month and a half ago. Prior to some of the more positive stories on Jones but I thought it was cheap.

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FBG trade chart has Kittle worth about the same as Golladay. Basically a low end WR1. I wouldn't trade him for Tyreek straight up. I know Tyreek will outscore Kittle buy a wide margin but the supply and demand of these two positions is totally different. There's 2 elite TE right now and it's been like that for like a decade. Elite TE are super rare. Other than MT who had a career year most likely there's 10 or so high end WR. 

Is FBG undervaluing the top TE or am I missing something?

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Maybe part of it is that the trade market never seems that great for TEs, even elite ones. Usually half your league is content with staying out of the upper tiers at TE. Not all that dissimilar to QB really in start 1 (but way less supply).

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17 minutes ago, RushHour said:

Maybe part of it is that the trade market never seems that great for TEs, even elite ones. Usually half your league is content with staying out of the upper tiers at TE. Not all that dissimilar to QB really in start 1 (but way less supply).

Yep. They are notoriously hard to move. Lots of people don't want to pay elite prices and lots of others don't want anybody that isn't HOF.

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7 hours ago, barackdhouse said:

Yep. They are notoriously hard to move. Lots of people don't want to pay elite prices and lots of others don't want anybody that isn't HOF.

Yeah and I'm always trying to find the next one.

Kittle hasn't scored a lot of TDs in his career so he's a notch down from peak Jimmy Graham or Gronk but if he ever puts a few years together with 10+ TDs he'll be every bit as valuable as an elite RB those years.

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8 hours ago, Milkman said:

FBG trade chart has Kittle worth about the same as Golladay. Basically a low end WR1. I wouldn't trade him for Tyreek straight up. I know Tyreek will outscore Kittle buy a wide margin but the supply and demand of these two positions is totally different. There's 2 elite TE right now and it's been like that for like a decade. Elite TE are super rare. Other than MT who had a career year most likely there's 10 or so high end WR. 

Is FBG undervaluing the top TE or am I missing something?

Those two elites averaged 16ppg last season.  There were five other TEs within 2.5ppg of that, which I don’t believe quite offers the elite difference making you might feel it is.  Now, the difference between 16ppg and TE12 was about 6ppg, which is likely a comparable gap that exists between the elites and low end starters across the other positions.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SayWhat? said:

Those two elites averaged 16ppg last season.  There were five other TEs within 2.5ppg of that, which I don’t believe quite offers the elite difference making you might feel it is.  Now, the difference between 16ppg and TE12 was about 6ppg, which is likely a comparable gap that exists between the elites and low end starters across the other positions.  

Yeah maybe it's because they aren't quite on peak Gronk/Graham levels. Kittle could get there if he scored more TDs but he's got a couple seasons now of not doing that so the odds of that happening get smaller every year. 

Edited by Milkman

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36 minutes ago, hispeedthinmint said:

Would you move Golladay for Kittle in PPR if you already had Andrews?

Straight across no. I'd move Andrews straight across for Golladay but man I'd really need a WR. WR is so deep. It seems easier to get help off the WW when injuries hit. 

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12 hours ago, Milkman said:

There's 2 elite TE right now and it's been like that for like a decade. Elite TE are super rare.

I would say (based on the previous few years of PPR scoring) that there's only a single elite TE in the league, and his trade value is awkward because of his age.

Kittle, Andrews, Ertz and Waller were in the 2nd tier of TE scoring last year, followed by only Hooper in the 3rd tier.  Beyond that, every TE was essentially plug and pray or a streaming option.

In terms of future value, I think Kelce, Kittle and Andrews are the top options. Ertz is getting up there in years and I don't expect Waller to ever come close to his career year again.  Hooper changed teams to a far worse TE situation, so he drops as well.

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11 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

I would say (based on the previous few years of PPR scoring) that there's only a single elite TE in the league, and his trade value is awkward because of his age.

Kittle, Andrews, Ertz and Waller were in the 2nd tier of TE scoring last year, followed by only Hooper in the 3rd tier.  Beyond that, every TE was essentially plug and pray or a streaming option.

In terms of future value, I think Kelce, Kittle and Andrews are the top options. Ertz is getting up there in years and I don't expect Waller to ever come close to his career year again.  Hooper changed teams to a far worse TE situation, so he drops as well.

Yeah I'm not sure there's a lot if people that wouldn't trade Kelce for Kittle straight up in a dynasty league but I get what you're saying. This year I have Kelce>Kittle. He's playing in a much better offense with the best QB in the league. 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Yeah I'm not sure there's a lot if people that wouldn't trade Kelce for Kittle straight up in a dynasty league but I get what you're saying. This year I have Kelce>Kittle. He's playing in a much better offense with the best QB in the league. 

 

Kelce is 31 - and while elite TEs have aged well in recent years I would surely consider moving him for Kittle. Kittle has a decent chance of surpassing Kelce even this year with a few more TDs added. Obviously KC is the much better passing offense but Kittle is basically the top option on SF and is a huge matchup problem for defenses.

ETA: I misread your post to say the most people wouldn’t trade Kelce for Kittle in dynasty.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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13 hours ago, RushHour said:

Maybe part of it is that the trade market never seems that great for TEs, even elite ones. Usually half your league is content with staying out of the upper tiers at TE. Not all that dissimilar to QB really in start 1 (but way less supply).

I was able to make several moves at TE this spring, but I think this year's weak rookie class played a big role. Those looking for depth needed to work the trade market rather than look at the draft. I don't think the draft is a good place to acquire most TE's (in my leagues anyway), but others do. 

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What value would you place on Ryquell Armstead?

I sniffed around and the owner asked for a 2021 5th, a 2022 2nd and a 2022 4th.

Is this dude the RB of the future in JAX, or JAG? 

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5 hours ago, MAC_32 said:

I was able to make several moves at TE this spring, but I think this year's weak rookie class played a big role. Those looking for depth needed to work the trade market rather than look at the draft. I don't think the draft is a good place to acquire most TE's (in my leagues anyway), but others do. 

They almost never start out fast. 

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36 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What value would you place on Ryquell Armstead?

I sniffed around and the owner asked for a 2021 5th, a 2022 2nd and a 2022 4th.

Is this dude the RB of the future in JAX, or JAG? 

I'd be focusing on the 2022 2nd there and that seems too steep. I might pay a 3rd if I had Fournette and was desperate for a handcuff but I think there are better ways to spend 2nds. 

He's not far off waiver wire level in most leagues for me.

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3 minutes ago, RushHour said:

I'd be focusing on the 2022 2nd there and that seems too steep. I might pay a 3rd if I had Fournette and was desperate for a handcuff but I think there are better ways to spend 2nds. 

He's not far off waiver wire level in most leagues for me.

Thanks - that is pretty much where I was at but was thinking maybe I missed something. I think it's a lot to pay for a current handcuff who may or may not ascend if/when they get rid of Fournette. Appreciate the feedback/confirmation. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Thanks - that is pretty much where I was at but was thinking maybe I missed something. I think it's a lot to pay for a current handcuff who may or may not ascend if/when they get rid of Fournette. Appreciate the feedback/confirmation. 

I mean, I'm not following Jags camp closely and maybe there's some hype around Armstead, I don't know. 

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Just now, RushHour said:

I mean, I'm not following Jags camp closely and maybe there's some hype around Armstead, I don't know. 

I googled quite a bit. No hype detected. lol 

Just the notion that the team was looking to deal Fournette, and doesn't seem interested in keeping him. But that doesn't mean their 5th round pick backup is gonna be the man. 

The only real news is that he had the roro & just returned to practice. :shrug: 

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I'd put Armstead in the same tier as rookies like L Perine & D Dallas, who are late 3rd rounders this year. I actually think I'd put him behind those two, since he didn't show much in his first season.

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Just now, ZWK said:

I'd put Armstead in the same tier as rookies like L Perine & D Dallas, who are late 3rd rounders this year. I actually think I'd put him behind those two, since he didn't show much in his first season.

And he just missed 18 days and reportedly lost weight. 

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I’m not even sure Armstead is the handcuff. Ozigbo was getting quite a bit of camp buzz while Armstead was away from the team. I’ve tried to find out if Ozigbo passed him on the depth chart or not, but camp news is very limited this year. 

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Nick Chubb's value right now?  He's kind of in value limbo with Kareem Hunt waiting and we're not sure how the backfield split will be.  Love the player though.  Have we seen his best days?  2 years left on his contract but if Hunt signs long term then that muddles it up a lot.  Plus Chubb isn't a great pass catcher to begin with, and they seem to want to build around Baker.  But then again it is the Browns.  I just have a hard time pinpointing Chubb's value when he's a A- talent but in a weird situation.  

Specifically I have an offer for my Chubb in a 2QB 3RB 5WR 2TE plus full IDP roster and I'm a bit torn but I'd rather not go into details since it's the value discussion thread.  

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57 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

Nick Chubb's value right now?  He's kind of in value limbo with Kareem Hunt waiting and we're not sure how the backfield split will be.  Love the player though.  Have we seen his best days?  2 years left on his contract but if Hunt signs long term then that muddles it up a lot.  Plus Chubb isn't a great pass catcher to begin with, and they seem to want to build around Baker.  But then again it is the Browns.  I just have a hard time pinpointing Chubb's value when he's a A- talent but in a weird situation.  

Specifically I have an offer for my Chubb in a 2QB 3RB 5WR 2TE plus full IDP roster and I'm a bit torn but I'd rather not go into details since it's the value discussion thread.  

Personally I bet on the talent over the situation so I do like Chubb a lot.  As far as Hunt, in my opinion he was the benefactor of a good situation when he was with KC, that isn't to say he's not a good RB but only to say he's not in the caliber of Chubb.  I think the coaching staff recognizes that and we will see Chubb be the workhorse this season (maybe wishful thinking as a Chubb owner).

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4 minutes ago, Devil_Dog said:

Personally I bet on the talent over the situation so I do like Chubb a lot.  As far as Hunt, in my opinion he was the benefactor of a good situation when he was with KC, that isn't to say he's not a good RB but only to say he's not in the caliber of Chubb.  I think the coaching staff recognizes that and we will see Chubb be the workhorse this season (maybe wishful thinking as a Chubb owner).

I think you're right. The old coaches last year found a million different ways to force Hunt the ball. That'll likely end with new coaches this year. Yeah, they'll pay lip service to it, but the proof will be in the pudding. Chubb, according to some scouts (I think Waldman among them), is the best pure runner in the game today.

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And I have no shares of Chubb anywhere, which I lament.

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Watch James Proche. Dude is a playmaker with incredible hands.

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1 hour ago, Zyphros said:

Nick Chubb's value right now?  He's kind of in value limbo with Kareem Hunt waiting and we're not sure how the backfield split will be.  Love the player though.  Have we seen his best days?  2 years left on his contract but if Hunt signs long term then that muddles it up a lot.  Plus Chubb isn't a great pass catcher to begin with, and they seem to want to build around Baker.  But then again it is the Browns.  I just have a hard time pinpointing Chubb's value when he's a A- talent but in a weird situation.  

Specifically I have an offer for my Chubb in a 2QB 3RB 5WR 2TE plus full IDP roster and I'm a bit torn but I'd rather not go into details since it's the value discussion thread.  

My question for the Chubb bulls is where are the additional points going to come from?

He's currently a 1st round startup pick as dynasty RB7 with a career best finish as RB12 in PPG who turns 25 this year.

That finish as RB12 in PPG came in a year where he was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards.  So there's not a ton of room to go up in rushing yards, which is his greatest strength as a player.  When you're spending a 1st round startup pick on a soon to turn 25 year old RB you want both a guy that can produce as a strong RB1 and who has the upside to be an elite player at the position.

Chubb's best so far has been a low RB1, so if people are spending a top 10 startup pick on him they must believe he has large upside above that since low RB1 types are not THAT difficult to find.  So given that he needed to be 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards just to be a low RB1 where are the rest of the points to vault him up to that next level and beyond going to come from?

The only place those points are really available are via receptions or touchdowns.  TD's are a long shot on the Browns as they clearly aren't the league dominating offense that people were anticipating a year ago.  He's already averaged 9 TDs/year so it's not like he's coming from a 2 TD season where we can expect major positive regression.  Maybe he can add a few TDs to that total that he already had as a low RB1 but I'm not seeing him scoring 20 TDs or anything like it that would make a major impact.

So that leaves receptions.  MAYBE he can develop into a great receiver who nabs a lot of catches in the middle of his career.  It's not out of the question.  Both Zeke and Fournette had big reception seasons despite not really being seen as anything more than moderate pass catchers prior to that.  The problem with that is it's probably not going to happen this year unless Hunt has a major injury as Chubb's receptions spiked way down when Hunt entered the lineup last year and now he has to deal with a whole year of Hunt.  So if anything we can probably expect his receptions to trend down this year which is going to make it even more difficult to be more than a low RB1 in PPG.

Hunt will likely be gone after this year but at that point we're talking about a 25 year old RB entering his age 26 seasons who has never finished as better than a low RB1 in PPG.  In modern fantasy football that is not really something that sounds that enticing and I think his value will be a fair bit less. 

I like Chubb's talent but the problem with him is he ended up being every bit as good of a prototypical RB as everyone hoped but that only translated to low RB1/high RB2 ppg scoring in fantasy football and that is unlikely to change this year with Hunt around.  The FF community turns quickly on 25/26 year old RBs, turns quickly on RBs that don't rack up receiving points, and turns doubly quickly on guys that fit both categories.  For that reason even if you like Chubb I think he will be available much cheaper in the near future.

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What are thoughts on Hurts? I am considering offering a 2021 3rd for him, which is probably too much but I’m looking for some long term options at QB in one league 

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2 hours ago, Interseptopus said:

What are thoughts on Hurts? I am considering offering a 2021 3rd for him, which is probably too much but I’m looking for some long term options at QB in one league 


Anyone who drafted him probably already spent at least a late 3rd to get him, right? And Wentz is already banged up, making this a poor time to buy low, possibly. Unless someone is facing unforeseen roster crunch I’m not sure why they’d trade him now for a similar pick to the one that they already used to get him, in a year where the absence or limited quantity of college football might make those late picks even less valuable than usual. 

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On 8/27/2020 at 5:40 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

What value would you place on Ryquell Armstead?

I sniffed around and the owner asked for a 2021 5th, a 2022 2nd and a 2022 4th.

Is this dude the RB of the future in JAX, or JAG? 

Prolly a bit more now

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21 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Hunt will likely be gone after this year but at that point we're talking about a 25 year old RB entering his age 26 seasons who has never finished as better than a low RB1 in PPG.  In modern fantasy football that is not really something that sounds that enticing and I think his value will be a fair bit less. 

He's 24 and won't turn 25 until week 16 so we can consider him a 24 yr old RB for this year (and 25 next).

 

I read somewhere (need to find it) that he was 0 - x inside the 10 yd line last year, that has to be an area of opportunity to get some TDs added to his #s.

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22 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

My question for the Chubb bulls is where are the additional points going to come from?

He's currently a 1st round startup pick as dynasty RB7 with a career best finish as RB12 in PPG who turns 25 this year.

That finish as RB12 in PPG came in a year where he was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards.  So there's not a ton of room to go up in rushing yards, which is his greatest strength as a player.  When you're spending a 1st round startup pick on a soon to turn 25 year old RB you want both a guy that can produce as a strong RB1 and who has the upside to be an elite player at the position.

Chubb's best so far has been a low RB1, so if people are spending a top 10 startup pick on him they must believe he has large upside above that since low RB1 types are not THAT difficult to find.  So given that he needed to be 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards just to be a low RB1 where are the rest of the points to vault him up to that next level and beyond going to come from?

The only place those points are really available are via receptions or touchdowns.  TD's are a long shot on the Browns as they clearly aren't the league dominating offense that people were anticipating a year ago.  He's already averaged 9 TDs/year so it's not like he's coming from a 2 TD season where we can expect major positive regression.  Maybe he can add a few TDs to that total that he already had as a low RB1 but I'm not seeing him scoring 20 TDs or anything like it that would make a major impact.

So that leaves receptions.  MAYBE he can develop into a great receiver who nabs a lot of catches in the middle of his career.  It's not out of the question.  Both Zeke and Fournette had big reception seasons despite not really being seen as anything more than moderate pass catchers prior to that.  The problem with that is it's probably not going to happen this year unless Hunt has a major injury as Chubb's receptions spiked way down when Hunt entered the lineup last year and now he has to deal with a whole year of Hunt.  So if anything we can probably expect his receptions to trend down this year which is going to make it even more difficult to be more than a low RB1 in PPG.

Hunt will likely be gone after this year but at that point we're talking about a 25 year old RB entering his age 26 seasons who has never finished as better than a low RB1 in PPG.  In modern fantasy football that is not really something that sounds that enticing and I think his value will be a fair bit less. 

I like Chubb's talent but the problem with him is he ended up being every bit as good of a prototypical RB as everyone hoped but that only translated to low RB1/high RB2 ppg scoring in fantasy football and that is unlikely to change this year with Hunt around.  The FF community turns quickly on 25/26 year old RBs, turns quickly on RBs that don't rack up receiving points, and turns doubly quickly on guys that fit both categories.  For that reason even if you like Chubb I think he will be available much cheaper in the near future.

Good point on his age:

33 minutes ago, Devil_Dog said:

He's 24 and won't turn 25 until week 16 so we can consider him a 24 yr old RB for this year (and 25 next).

In addition, Sheil Kapadia posted this last week on the Athletic:

Quote

61.8

The percentage of red-zone run plays that Kevin Stefanski called with the Vikings last season — a league high. Overall, Stefanski was the fifth-most run-heavy play-caller in the NFL. This is great news for Browns running back Nick Chubb, who is somehow falling out of the first round in drafts. Chubb ranked third last season with 1,772 yards from scrimmage. His 11 carries of 20-plus yards were tops among running backs. And Chubb broke a tackle on 21.5 percent of his runs, which ranked 10th according to Sports Info Solutions. Chubb gets dinged for his lack of receiving yards (278 in 2019), but Stefanski’s screen game last year was the best in the league. Kirk Cousins produced a league-high 443 passing yards on screens to running backs and tight ends. Even with Kareem Hunt more involved, Chubb is going to have opportunities for explosive plays as a receiver. Red-zone carries, home-run ability, a run-heavy offense and upside as a receiver. Chubb is worthy of a first-round pick.

Regarding TDs, I think @FreeBaGeL underplays the situation. Last season, Chubb scored 8 TDs on 334 touches. That seems pretty low for that volume, especially for a guy who averaged 5.0 ypc. In 2018, Chubb had 17 carries inside the opponent's 10 yard line and scored 5 TDs (29.4%). While that is not a high conversion rate, contrast it to 2019, when Chubb led the NFL with 32 carries inside the opponent's 10 yard line and scored 4 TDs (12.5%). A runner as good as Chubb seems due for positive regression in this area.

I'm not sure if I would rank him as dynasty RB7, but I do like his dynasty prospects.

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1 hour ago, Pwingles said:

Prolly a bit more now

Yeah. I noticed that when I woke up to the news. :doh: 

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On 8/30/2020 at 10:26 AM, Zyphros said:

Nick Chubb's value right now?  He's kind of in value limbo with Kareem Hunt waiting and we're not sure how the backfield split will be.  Love the player though.  Have we seen his best days?  2 years left on his contract but if Hunt signs long term then that muddles it up a lot.  Plus Chubb isn't a great pass catcher to begin with, and they seem to want to build around Baker.  But then again it is the Browns.  I just have a hard time pinpointing Chubb's value when he's a A- talent but in a weird situation.  

Specifically I have an offer for my Chubb in a 2QB 3RB 5WR 2TE plus full IDP roster and I'm a bit torn but I'd rather not go into details since it's the value discussion thread.  

You'll need to pry him off of my cold, dead hands. And I write this expecting him to not be a Brown come 2022 (maybe sooner).

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On 8/30/2020 at 11:38 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

My question for the Chubb bulls is where are the additional points going to come from?

He's currently a 1st round startup pick as dynasty RB7 with a career best finish as RB12 in PPG who turns 25 this year.

That finish as RB12 in PPG came in a year where he was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards.  So there's not a ton of room to go up in rushing yards, which is his greatest strength as a player.  When you're spending a 1st round startup pick on a soon to turn 25 year old RB you want both a guy that can produce as a strong RB1 and who has the upside to be an elite player at the position.

Chubb's best so far has been a low RB1, so if people are spending a top 10 startup pick on him they must believe he has large upside above that since low RB1 types are not THAT difficult to find.  So given that he needed to be 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards just to be a low RB1 where are the rest of the points to vault him up to that next level and beyond going to come from?

The only place those points are really available are via receptions or touchdowns.  TD's are a long shot on the Browns as they clearly aren't the league dominating offense that people were anticipating a year ago.  He's already averaged 9 TDs/year so it's not like he's coming from a 2 TD season where we can expect major positive regression.  Maybe he can add a few TDs to that total that he already had as a low RB1 but I'm not seeing him scoring 20 TDs or anything like it that would make a major impact.

So that leaves receptions.  MAYBE he can develop into a great receiver who nabs a lot of catches in the middle of his career.  It's not out of the question.  Both Zeke and Fournette had big reception seasons despite not really being seen as anything more than moderate pass catchers prior to that.  The problem with that is it's probably not going to happen this year unless Hunt has a major injury as Chubb's receptions spiked way down when Hunt entered the lineup last year and now he has to deal with a whole year of Hunt.  So if anything we can probably expect his receptions to trend down this year which is going to make it even more difficult to be more than a low RB1 in PPG.

Hunt will likely be gone after this year but at that point we're talking about a 25 year old RB entering his age 26 seasons who has never finished as better than a low RB1 in PPG.  In modern fantasy football that is not really something that sounds that enticing and I think his value will be a fair bit less. 

I like Chubb's talent but the problem with him is he ended up being every bit as good of a prototypical RB as everyone hoped but that only translated to low RB1/high RB2 ppg scoring in fantasy football and that is unlikely to change this year with Hunt around.  The FF community turns quickly on 25/26 year old RBs, turns quickly on RBs that don't rack up receiving points, and turns doubly quickly on guys that fit both categories.  For that reason even if you like Chubb I think he will be available much cheaper in the near future.

If one were asked to describe the Browns 'offense' from 2019 in one word that is safe for work it'd be inefficient. Chubb did what he did last year despite all of the bad things happening around him. My early season expectations are reserved because installing a new offense from a new coaching staff amidst this particular offseason will have this unit starting from behind relative to others, but from everything I've gleaned to date I think the worst case is a repeat. The offensive line has been refortified and there are now big bodies at both TE and FB to help should injury or performance beset them, unlike last year's pass-heavy weaponry. Baker's success out of heavy personnel has been well documented and despite that last year's group actively tried to deploy wide receiver heavy personnel anyway. And this is before getting into the bad habits he developed - and didn't correct.

I'm not sure what to expect out of this season, but when it comes to Chubb I think last season represents his floor. And RB1 is a damn good floor.

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13 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I'm not sure what to expect out of this season, but when it comes to Chubb I think last season represents his floor. And RB1 is a damn good floor.

Keep in mind he was RB24 in PPG last year after Hunt joined the team.

I don't think a season where he was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and only played half the season with major competition for touches whereas he will now be playing the entire season with it is a reasonable floor, but to each their own.

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5 hours ago, Devil_Dog said:

He's 24 and won't turn 25 until week 16 so we can consider him a 24 yr old RB for this year (and 25 next).

True enough but you know as well as I do (and we just saw as much with David Johnson and his December birthday over the last few years) that when RB's hit their mid 20's fantasy owners start rounding up when it's close like this when considering the value of a player.

It's weird to say because Chubb hasn't been in the league long but this time next year people will start considering him on the verge of "old".  This is doubly true if a guy has a mediocre season or sub par receiving numbers, the fantasy view on them changes fast at that point.

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4 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Keep in mind he was RB24 in PPG last year after Hunt joined the team.

I don't think a season where he was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and only played half the season with major competition for touches whereas he will now be playing the entire season with it is a reasonable floor, but to each their own.

I'm aware. I thought that may present a buying opportunity in my non-Chubb owned leagues, but to no avail. 

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13 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

In addition, Sheil Kapadia posted this last week on the Athletic:

Quote

61.8

The percentage of red-zone run plays that Kevin Stefanski called with the Vikings last season — a league high. Overall, Stefanski was the fifth-most run-heavy play-caller in the NFL. This is great news for Browns running back Nick Chubb, who is somehow falling out of the first round in drafts. Chubb ranked third last season with 1,772 yards from scrimmage. His 11 carries of 20-plus yards were tops among running backs. And Chubb broke a tackle on 21.5 percent of his runs, which ranked 10th according to Sports Info Solutions. Chubb gets dinged for his lack of receiving yards (278 in 2019), but Stefanski’s screen game last year was the best in the league. Kirk Cousins produced a league-high 443 passing yards on screens to running backs and tight ends. Even with Kareem Hunt more involved, Chubb is going to have opportunities for explosive plays as a receiver. Red-zone carries, home-run ability, a run-heavy offense and upside as a receiver. Chubb is worthy of a first-round pick.

Regarding TDs, I think @FreeBaGeL underplays the situation. Last season, Chubb scored 8 TDs on 334 touches. That seems pretty low for that volume, especially for a guy who averaged 5.0 ypc. In 2018, Chubb had 17 carries inside the opponent's 10 yard line and scored 5 TDs (29.4%). While that is not a high conversion rate, contrast it to 2019, when Chubb led the NFL with 32 carries inside the opponent's 10 yard line and scored 4 TDs (12.5%). A runner as good as Chubb seems due for positive regression in this area.

I'm not sure if I would rank him as dynasty RB7, but I do like his dynasty prospects.

@FreeBaGeL, surprised you made such an extensive post but have chosen not to respond to my post quoted here. Thoughts?

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29 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

@FreeBaGeL, surprised you made such an extensive post but have chosen not to respond to my post quoted here. Thoughts?

Wow I hadn't noticed he had that many carries inside the 10.  That's a fair point.

Speaking of regression, he led the NFL in carries inside the 10 last year.  Are we really expecting that to repeat?

I guess if I wanted to be pedantic I could say that despite being 2nd in the NFL in rushing and first in the NFL in carries inside the 10 he still finished a very boring RB12 PPG in fantasy football.

Nonetheless I will concede he has more TD upside than I gave him credit for, even if I find it hard to imagine a Cleveland Brown who is splitting time scoring 13-15 TDs next year.

Even if we give him his 2018 TD rate with his 2019 attempts (perfectly cherry picked, as all things should be), that still would have left him as RB9 PPG last year so still a lot of work to do in the receptions category.  And again, that's not accounting for 8 additional games of Hunt this go-round.

I like Chubb a lot as a player, but this seems like a classic case of better NFL player than fantasy player.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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9 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Wow I hadn't noticed he had that many carries inside the 10.  That's a fair point.

Speaking of regression, he led the NFL in carries inside the 10 last year.  Are we really expecting that to repeat?

I guess if I wanted to be pedantic I could say that despite being 2nd in the NFL in rushing and first in the NFL in carries inside the 10 he still finished a very boring RB12 PPG in fantasy football.

Nonetheless I will concede he has more TD upside than I gave him credit for, even if I find it hard to imagine a Cleveland Brown who is splitting time scoring 13-15 TDs next year.

Even if we give him his 2018 TD rate with his 2019 attempts (perfectly cherry picked, as all things should be), that still would have left him as RB9 PPG last year so still a lot of work to do in the receptions category.  And again, that's not accounting for 8 additional games of Hunt this go-round.

I like Chubb a lot as a player, but this seems like a classic case of better NFL player than fantasy player.

Others can speak for themselves, but I'm not expecting a repeat of those 18 and 19 offenses. If I were then I wouldn't be as optimistic about Chubb. I don't have any tangible expectations for this season, but from what I have gleaned so far this is not going to be a repeat of the incompetent coaching from the last 4* years.

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