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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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Just now, maf005 said:
2 hours ago, menobrown said:

Obviously this would change post draft but right now knowing what I know I go:

1.1

Gurley

1.2

1.3

Hopkins

Robinson

Whoa this is wayyy different than I would rank these assets. No chance I take a rookie over a 23-year old WR who just put up a top 5 season.

ARob

Hopkins

1.1

1.2

Gurley

1.3

1.1

AR15 (is that no longer a thing? )

Gurley (but I'd really like to know who coaches him next year)

Hopkins (very close to 1.02, ask tomorrow and I might answer differently.  Presuming Brock remains starter, I might drop him more)

1.02 

1.03

I think Robinson comes back around, eventually.  Top 10 probably.  

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Rank the following assets: D. Hopkins, T. Gurley, A. Robinson, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03

Dalvin Cook

Robinson

Gurley

Hopkins

Chubb/Fournette/McCafrey

I need to watch the rookie RBs besides Chubb and Cook more than I have to really rank them, I am tempted to have Chubb ahead of Hopkins based on what I have seen, but my understanding is he had injuries and whatnot, so not even sure he would be ahead of Fournette for most people. What I have seen of Fournette, I always am wondering why people like Cosell and others think he is so great? But I may have just watched him at bad times also.

Not very easy to rank these honestly. Before this season I would think most would have Robinson and Hopkins ahead of the draft picks.

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20 minutes ago, maf005 said:

Whoa this is wayyy different than I would rank these assets. No chance I take a rookie over a 23-year old WR who just put up a top 5 season.

ARob

Hopkins

1.1

1.2

Gurley

1.3

 

I expected people's rankings to be all over the place and I expected people to not agree with me but to be honest thought most of the flak I would get would be listing Hopkins so low.

 

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29 minutes ago, FUBAR said:

Most of those owners are bottom feeders.  

I haven't kept most of my picks because they tend to be overvalued.  Sometimes they pan out but even then the player taken often doesn't live up to the price paid.  Just as one example of when the best case still looks good for the trader of the pick, I traded the 1.01 last year (Gurley) for Mike Evans two days before the draft.  (Wasn't my pick) I got blasted for that trade.  

Nothing wrong with that trade, Evans is a player I have always valued a bit more than Robinson though, same tier I guess but Evans likely closer to the 11 tier than tier one. The 2014 draft was fantastic and I waved between Evans and Watkins as the best of that great group. I had Robinson in tier 2 before I watched more of him. To be honest some of Ryan Riddles comments opened my eyes about him and after watching some more I decided to move him into the tier one group that was already very deep.

The love for Gurley was very high however. And for good reason I think. He did have some really excellent games in college and more impressive to me than anything I have seen from Fournette for example at this time.

I don't get the sense that people feel as strongly about any of the 2017 RB as people did about Gurley, but I guess it is still early for that right now.

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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

I haven't paid enough attention to him or the Jaguars to really say one way or another.

I believe in Robinson's talent. He is still a very young player and learning. What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside.

Blake Bortles is very bad and I don't know if Jacksonville is ready to give up on him yet. So if Bortles is the QB again next season, well it could go either way I suppose or more likely somewhere in between his 2015 and 2016 performance. I don't believe in Bortles enough however to think it will be closer to 2015 than 2016 unless there is a change in QB.

If there is a change in QB there may be an adjustment period for Robinson that delays him further in his development.

I do like the player enough that I think it is a good opportunity to buy. I am just not sure he will get back to performing as a WR 1 again with Bortles and that makes next season seem unlikely. 

As Andrew74 mentions, if you can buy for WR 2 price I think he is worth it. He might not perform any better than a WR 2 next season however.

TD are really hard to predict and Robinson might have hit his career mark in TD as a rookie. Hard to expect any player to score that consistently unless they actually are Randy Moss.

Just a heads up that Robinson was not a rookie last year. 

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Just a heads up that Robinson was not a rookie last year. 

I know he was part of the 2014 draft class. Did I say something confusing that suggests otherwise? If so not intentionally. 

I was talking about his 14 TD season though which occurred in his second season, not as a rookie. Sorry for any confusion about that.

Edited by Biabreakable

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31 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I know he was part of the 2014 draft class. Did I say something confusing that suggests otherwise? If so not intentionally. 

I was talking about his 14 TD season though which occurred in his second season, not as a rookie. Sorry for any confusion about that.

No worries, but yea you said "What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside.", and also "Robinson might have hit his career mark in TD as a rookie".

He had 639 yards and 6 TDs in 13 games as a rookie, not in any way phenomenal, his career TD mark, or a Moss/OBJ like rookie year ;)

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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With regards to the discussion about Gurley/Robinson/Hopkins and their bounce back potential, is there any precedent set for players having healthy 16 game seasons and performing THAT poorly and then bouncing back to being a top 5/10 long-term fantasy asset again.

There are probably some, but I can't think of them offhand.  There are a few WRs that had some good bounce back seasons in their twilight years, but I can't think of any guys that played this poorly when they were young and then picked things right back up where they had left off the year before for the rest of their career.

It seems easy to dismiss things as bad line, bad QB, etc but Gurley is far from the first allegedly premiere RB to spend a year with an abysmal line, and Robinson/Hopkins are far from the first premiere WRs to play with an abysmal QB.

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

No worries, but yea you said "What he did as a rookie was remarkable. Randy Moss OBJ like performance there, so that is the upside."

He had 639 yards and 6 TDs in 13 games as a rookie, not in any way phenomenal or a Moss/OBJ like rookie year.

My bad talking about a bunch of different time frames and perspectives here.Easy to get some wires crossed.

But yes Robinson did not break out like that until his second season.

Robinson only played in 10 games as a rookie. Bortles was a rookie too that year 

Just looking at Robinson's targets, he is on pace for 146 targets this season, similar to 2015 the volume is there, Bortles is throwing the ball 40 times per game, but everything else is way down from what he was able to do last season except for sacks, which have been cut down a lot compared to his first couple seasons.

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15 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Great post.  I agree with everything except the notion of trading for a player just after they were drafted rather than trading for the pick.  I've never had any luck with that at all.  I think when it's still a pick, even if they're pretty sure who they're going to pick with it, there is still some amount of waffling/openness.  They're still, at least to some extent, entertaining the notion that they may get an offer for the pick they like, or decide to take someone different, etc.  Once they've made the pick there is some finality to it.  They've accepted that this is their guy and I think they're less likely to move them.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a guy (at least not a guy with good value like a 1st rounder) traded in any of my dynasty leagues between the time they were selected in the rookie draft and the start of their rookie season.  And I have certainly tried buying.

I completely agree with you here too.  It's definitely not something that happens with regularity, but with certain owners it is possible.  I think for there to be a real opportunity to pull off moves like this, you need to find owners that tend to overreact to off-season news blurbs.

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Respect the call, but disagree.  I think Howard is going to stick.  I don't have a strong opinion on Dixon either way, but I'd happily bet against him being a household name.  

Well, my opinion is admittedly strongly influenced by Waldman on RBs and he said before the draft and recently reiterated that Dixon is still the one to own. My takeaway from reading all his stuff is that Howard is good, not great, whereas Dixon is more of a special talent. Also, as someone who has owned both and has watched many a one year wonder, I just don't feel that confident about Howard. I mainly drafted him bc I thought Langford sucked, but don't like the direction the Bears are going. It kind of reminds me of Doug Martin a bit in that his stats were better than he was (not that he was bad, just not that good), but also the team itself crumbled around him.

Here's an article talking about both of them. It's a good read if you have a minute: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck382

In the rookie scouting portfolio, he had Dixon #3 and Howard #15 (out of the RBs).

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6 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Well, my opinion is admittedly strongly influenced by Waldman on RBs and he said before the draft and recently reiterated that Dixon is still the one to own. My takeaway from reading all his stuff is that Howard is good, not great, whereas Dixon is more of a special talent. Also, as someone who has owned both and has watched many a one year wonder, I just don't feel that confident about Howard. I mainly drafted him bc I thought Langford sucked, but don't like the direction the Bears are going. It kind of reminds me of Doug Martin a bit in that his stats were better than he was (not that he was bad, just not that good), but also the team itself crumbled around him.

Here's an article talking about both of them. It's a good read if you have a minute: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=gutcheck382

In the rookie scouting portfolio, he had Dixon #3 and Howard #15 (out of the RBs).

I respect the hell out of Waldman.  But at a certain point in the process, what a player is actually doing has to supersede what anyone thought they would do.  Waldman was making a projection on how Howard would do in the NFL.  He didn't have the luxury that we have today: We've seen him in the NFL. Howard has already outperformed the article's projected ceiling.  Based on that, I think he's an asset where Dixon is still a maybe.  There's still some Bryce Butler flame out potential, and I'm not sure he's completely safe from a timeshare, but I like his odds.

Edited by Concept Coop

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17 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

... is there any precedent set for players having healthy 16 game seasons and performing THAT poorly and then bouncing back to being a top 5/10 long-term fantasy asset again.

2012 Larry Fitzgerald.  He was too old to be a top 10 asset after bouncing back, but he did bounce back. 

Brandon Marshall in Miami also came to mind, but looking at the numbers--they weren't as bad I thought.  

Edit: 2009 Matt Forte? 2011 Chris Johnson? 2012 LeSean McCoy? 2015 Melvin Gordon?  Not perfect examples, but about as close as we're likely to get.  

Edited by Concept Coop

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Rant:  Can anyone tell me why LeVeon Bell isn't more situation dependant than Zeke Elliott?  The Cowboys have a better line, but also see more 8 man fronts than anyone.  Sure, Darren McFadden put up 1,000 yards last year, but 32-33YO DeAngelo Williams is a high end RB1 when he starts.  If I'm a Zeke owner (PPR), I think I'd take him in PIT over DAL; short-term, at least. 

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

 

19 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

... is there any precedent set for players having healthy 16 game seasons and performing THAT poorly and then bouncing back to being a top 5/10 long-term fantasy asset again.

2012 Larry Fitzgerald.  He was too old to be a top 10 asset after bouncing back, but he did bounce back.

Some other WRs with similar patterns: Randy Moss in Oakland (he was in his late 20s by then, but he had 3 huge NE years left). Steve Smith whenever Delhomme was out, including most of the 2007 season. Isaac Bruce at age 25 in 1997 (although he missed some games). Anquan Boldin's second season (although he also missed some games). Reggie Wayne was a late-career thing, but he put up basically the same totals in his last Manning season and his first Luck season with a huge dip in between.

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Just now, ZWK said:

Some other WRs with similar patterns: Randy Moss in Oakland (he was in his late 20s by then, but he had 3 huge NE years left). Steve Smith whenever Delhomme was out, including most of the 2007 season. Isaac Bruce at age 25 in 1997 (although he missed some games). Anquan Boldin's second season (although he also missed some games). Reggie Wayne was a late-career thing, but he put up basically the same totals in his last Manning season and his first Luck season with a huge dip in between.

Thank you for this.  Very good data points.  

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let's make this thread the new version of the Fear and Loathing thread from back in the day. Keep up the great work everyone.

keeping it rolling...

 

Has Davante Adams done enough this year to be in the conversation in high-end WR2 range (ie. WR12-20-ish)?

Is he now in the Hopkins/Cooks/Robinson range?

I think yes, especially with Cobbs disappointing for the 2nd year in a row, Nelson getting another year younger, and Rodgers still in his prime.

 

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27 minutes ago, joey said:

let's make this thread the new version of the Fear and Loathing thread from back in the day. Keep up the great work everyone.

keeping it rolling...

 

Has Davante Adams done enough this year to be in the conversation in high-end WR2 range (ie. WR12-20-ish)?

Is he now in the Hopkins/Cooks/Robinson range?

I think yes, especially with Cobbs disappointing for the 2nd year in a row, Nelson getting another year younger, and Rodgers still in his prime.

 

I haven't paid enough attention to GB this year to feel good about my call, but I think he's a mid WR2.  I can't put him in the Hopkins/Robinson or even Cooks range, but he's in the conversation after that.  I will say that a good deal of that price is situational.  I'm not sold on him as an NFL WR1, but again, I am not the most informed on the topic ATM.  

 

Do you like him more than Michael Thomas?

Edited by Concept Coop

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6 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

I haven't paid enough attention to GB this year to feel good about my call, but I think he's a mid WR2.  I can't put him in the Hopkins/Robinson or even Cooks range, but he's in the conversation after that.  I will say that a good deal of that price is situational.  I'm not sold on him as an NFL WR1, but again, I am not the most informed on the topic ATM.  

 

Do you like him more than Michael Thomas?

Right now, most would probably pick Thomas over Adams but if Adams continues to develop as he has this year, Cobb continues to remain JAG, and Nelson eventually retires, I'm hoping they're in the same tier below the uber-stud WRs. 

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I have watched quite a few Packers games this year. In my opinion Adams still shows some similar problems with getting open and with catching the ball as he had last season. The main difference to me is that Rodgers seems to understand Adams better and has better timing with him this season than he had last season. There are times where I think Rodgers has lost confidence in Adams and looks for other options. He isn't doing that as much this year, as trying to work with what hes got.

Adams is putting up similar numbers to James Jones in the offense. The role he was drafted for but wasn't ready to take over last season.

I would value him as a WR 2/3 based more on his situation and supporting cast than his talent. I have some doubts about Adams being as productive if he was with another team.

Adams has improved metrically in all categories. His cartch rate is above 60% now, his yards per receptions and yards per target are much higher and obviously 9 TD makes a huge difference. Jones always scored a decent number of TD in this role before Adams, and this is one thing that Adam's specializes in, the back shoulder catch and fighting for the ball in the end zone.

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Ok, I've got a question for this thread. Was just poking around and... take this with a grain of salt since only one staff member has posted rankings in the past 35 days... saw 12/15/16 rankings that had DT at WR12 and Crabtree at WR34. Supposedly this is for PPR. Crabtree is ~3 months older (negligible) and has outscored DT on a per target basis* for the past two years (with similar targets, 127 vs. 130, he's outscoring him so far this year).

*Yes, I'm using per target because PPR is basically a volume scoring system so stats are based more on target volume than skill. Just because a guy got a ton of targets in one year doesn't mean he'll get them going forward, so looking at points/target helps neutralize things to help us prepare for the unknown. 

So my question is, why is there such a gulf between them? Do people think DT is magically going to get 180 targets for the rest of his career? It seems his value is still inflated from the Peyton years and Crabtree's value is still deflated from the SF years.

They are both turning 30 next season. They are both signed with their respective clubs through 2019. Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs.

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53 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Ok, I've got a question for this thread. Was just poking around and... take this with a grain of salt since only one staff member has posted rankings in the past 35 days... saw 12/15/16 rankings that had DT at WR12 and Crabtree at WR34. Supposedly this is for PPR. Crabtree is ~3 months older (negligible) and has outscored DT on a per target basis* for the past two years (with similar targets, 127 vs. 130, he's outscoring him so far this year).

*Yes, I'm using per target because PPR is basically a volume scoring system so stats are based more on target volume than skill. Just because a guy got a ton of targets in one year doesn't mean he'll get them going forward, so looking at points/target helps neutralize things to help us prepare for the unknown. 

So my question is, why is there such a gulf between them? Do people think DT is magically going to get 180 targets for the rest of his career? It seems his value is still inflated from the Peyton years and Crabtree's value is still deflated from the SF years.

They are both turning 30 next season. They are both signed with their respective clubs through 2019. Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs.

And yet DT sits at WR 9 in PPR, with a legit chance to move to WR 6 or 7 over the last week or two. And that's with a bum hip for a few games. No one believes in this guy but he continues to put up very good numbers no matter who the QB is. If he gets a legit QB next year, I see no reason why he can't be top 5.

I'll take DT over Crabtree 10 times out of 10.

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2 minutes ago, kutta said:

And yet DT sits at WR 9 in PPR, with a legit chance to move to WR 6 or 7 over the last week or two. And that's with a bum hip for a few games. No one believes in this guy but he continues to put up very good numbers no matter who the QB is. If he gets a legit QB next year, I see no reason why he can't be top 5.

I'll take DT over Crabtree 10 times out of 10.

And yet? Why do you lead off with "and yet"? That was weird. And from there you managed to get really defensive about DT and not answer the question. Anyway, in regular ol' 1ppr he sits at 10th, not 9th, behind Crabtree. So if this was one of those 10 times you picked him over the Crabman, you missed. But congrats on being part of the consensus opinion. It's a long and lonely branch. 

And I guess you missed it, but he's ranked WR12 on those dynasty rankings, so I don't understand the "no one believes in this guy" stance, when he's clearly valued quite highly by many.

I don't mean to turn this into a DT bashing thread, but I'll tell you why he won't be top 5 next year... he won't be top 5 unless he gets top 5 targets or if Peyton comes back to pepper the whole team with TDs. The problem is, nobody is going to throw 35+ TDs in Denver next year and DT isn't good enough to command 180 targets. This year, he's 10th in WR targets and 10th in WR points. He's a good WR. Crabtree is 11th in targets and 9th in points. He's also a good WR. They are the same age and signed to contracts for the same amount of time. So let me repeat the question slowly... why is there such a huge gap between their dynasty values?

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

Ok, I've got a question for this thread. Was just poking around and... take this with a grain of salt since only one staff member has posted rankings in the past 35 days... saw 12/15/16 rankings that had DT at WR12 and Crabtree at WR34. Supposedly this is for PPR. Crabtree is ~3 months older (negligible) and has outscored DT on a per target basis* for the past two years (with similar targets, 127 vs. 130, he's outscoring him so far this year).

*Yes, I'm using per target because PPR is basically a volume scoring system so stats are based more on target volume than skill. Just because a guy got a ton of targets in one year doesn't mean he'll get them going forward, so looking at points/target helps neutralize things to help us prepare for the unknown. 

So my question is, why is there such a gulf between them? Do people think DT is magically going to get 180 targets for the rest of his career? It seems his value is still inflated from the Peyton years and Crabtree's value is still deflated from the SF years.

They are both turning 30 next season. They are both signed with their respective clubs through 2019. Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs.

Good topic and I think the correct answer is (mostly) name value.  I'd throw Dez Bryant into that conversation as well.  I have no issue with anyone preferring DT or Dez to Crabtree, but the gulf, as you put it, is greatly exaggerated.  In that context, Crabtree is a clear buy.

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He answered your question, although in a roundabout sort of way.  Crabtree healthy + with a good QB = WR9.  DT not healthy with crappy QB = WR10.  Health and crappy QB can improve.  One could also argue that Cooper > Sanders, so DT has less competition going forward.

 

 

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On 12/15/2016 at 2:12 PM, Concept Coop said:

Rank the following assets: D. Hopkins, T. Gurley, A. Robinson, 1.01, 1.02, 1.03

At this point, I think I'd take the draft picks, then rank it Hopkins, Robinson, Gurley.  QB situations and coaching flux are all factors that devalue those guys.

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2 minutes ago, ThreeThousand said:

He answered your question, although in a roundabout sort of way.  Crabtree healthy + with a good QB = WR9.  DT not healthy with crappy QB = WR10.  Health and crappy QB can improve.  One could also argue that Cooper > Sanders, so DT has less competition going forward.

Crabtree has been dealing with an ankle injury for like 5 weeks, so I'm not buying that DT's health has greatly set him back this year. Currently, DT has 9.3 targets/game and a 64% catch rate which is pretty good. While the QB situation could get better next year, it could also get worse. Crabtree at least has continuity going for him at QB. You'd think that would count for something.

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6 minutes ago, ThreeThousand said:

He answered your question, although in a roundabout sort of way.  Crabtree healthy + with a good QB = WR9.  DT not healthy with crappy QB = WR10.  Health and crappy QB can improve.  One could also argue that Cooper > Sanders, so DT has less competition going forward.

I certainly buy that argument--and think DT (and Dez) should be valued over Crabtree because of that.  Simply put, they're more talented.  But the the gap between WR12 and WR34 doesn't accurately reflect that, IMO.  And as both parties are 30 next year, the window for Denver fixing it's QB situation isn't very big.  

I'm not actually sure we don't all agree here.  Does anyone think WR12 and WR34 feels right?  I've got DT lower and Crabtree higher.  

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11 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

Good topic and I think the correct answer is (mostly) name value.  I'd throw Dez Bryant into that conversation as well.  I have no issue with anyone preferring DT or Dez to Crabtree, but the gulf, as you put it, is greatly exaggerated.  In that context, Crabtree is a clear buy.

Yeah, Dez is a year younger so I figured DT made for a better comp. But with Dez's injury history, his ranking is really based on a personal preference for injury risk. When healthy, he's one of the few guys that can be top 5 in points without being top 5 in targets. 

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8 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I certainly buy that argument--and think DT (and Dez) should be valued over Crabtree because of that.  Simply put, they're more talented.  But the the gap between WR12 and WR34 doesn't accurately reflect that, IMO.  And as both parties are 30 next year, the window for Denver fixing it's QB situation isn't very big.  

I'm not actually sure we don't all agree here.  Does anyone think WR12 and WR34 feels right?  I've got DT lower and Crabtree higher.  

I think they should be ranked very similarly, but if we want to get into the nitty gritty of it, I think Crabtree will age better than DT. His strengths are route running and hands and those items have a longer expiration date than speed. I don't think anyone will want to count on either player as their WR3 at age 35, but if we were to place a bet right now as to which one will still be in the league at age 35, I'd take Crabtree over DT. So I expect them to put up similar fantasy stats for the next 2 years, but DT's cliff will come faster and fall off harder. Vincent Jackson-esque. Crabtree is more like a poor man's Fitzgerald.

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51 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

And yet? Why do you lead off with "and yet"? That was weird. And from there you managed to get really defensive about DT and not answer the question. Anyway, in regular ol' 1ppr he sits at 10th, not 9th, behind Crabtree. So if this was one of those 10 times you picked him over the Crabman, you missed. But congrats on being part of the consensus opinion. It's a long and lonely branch. 

And I guess you missed it, but he's ranked WR12 on those dynasty rankings, so I don't understand the "no one believes in this guy" stance, when he's clearly valued quite highly by many.

I don't mean to turn this into a DT bashing thread, but I'll tell you why he won't be top 5 next year... he won't be top 5 unless he gets top 5 targets or if Peyton comes back to pepper the whole team with TDs. The problem is, nobody is going to throw 35+ TDs in Denver next year and DT isn't good enough to command 180 targets. This year, he's 10th in WR targets and 10th in WR points. He's a good WR. Crabtree is 11th in targets and 9th in points. He's also a good WR. They are the same age and signed to contracts for the same amount of time. So let me repeat the question slowly... why is there such a huge gap between their dynasty values?

Who's defensive here? Geez.

You said, " Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs."

So I said, "And yet..."

My point is that DT continues to produce even when he has no QB - last year he had Peyton and Brock, and they both were horrible, and he still put up top 10 WR numbers. This year he has a no-name QB and he is still putting up top 10 numbers. DT can produce no matter who is at QB, and he's proven that. 

Crabtree has never caught 90 balls in a season (this will be his first). DT has done it 5 years in a row now. Crabtree has never caught double digit TD's. DT did it 3 years in a row. You can put them in the same class because Crabtree had a good year this year, but they really aren't.

Maybe they are ranked so differently because DT has proven to produce even when he has horrible QB play, but Crabtree has not. And most people think DT's QB situation is only going to get better.

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41 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I certainly buy that argument--and think DT (and Dez) should be valued over Crabtree because of that.  Simply put, they're more talented.  But the the gap between WR12 and WR34 doesn't accurately reflect that, IMO.  And as both parties are 30 next year, the window for Denver fixing it's QB situation isn't very big.  

I'm not actually sure we don't all agree here.  Does anyone think WR12 and WR34 feels right?  I've got DT lower and Crabtree higher.  

I'll agree that Crabtree should be a little higher. I think DT is ranked about right.

This year is Crabtree's first year sniffing the top 10 (he was WR 18 last year), and he's only getting older. DT is in the top 10 every year. So while I'll agree Crabtree should be ranked higher, I don't think he's that close to DT where they should be ranked about the same.

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15 minutes ago, kutta said:

Who's defensive here? Geez.

You said, " Crabtree has a good, young QB. DT has a hodge podge of questionable QBs."

So I said, "And yet..."

My point is that DT continues to produce even when he has no QB - last year he had Peyton and Brock, and they both were horrible, and he still put up top 10 WR numbers. This year he has a no-name QB and he is still putting up top 10 numbers. DT can produce no matter who is at QB, and he's proven that. 

Crabtree has never caught 90 balls in a season (this will be his first). DT has done it 5 years in a row now. Crabtree has never caught double digit TD's. DT did it 3 years in a row. You can put them in the same class because Crabtree had a good year this year, but they really aren't.

Maybe they are ranked so differently because DT has proven to produce even when he has horrible QB play, but Crabtree has not. And most people think DT's QB situation is only going to get better.

You keep looking backwards. We're talking about dynasty rankings. Had Crabtree played on that Denver team with Peyton as his QB, then I'm sure things would be different. His early years were spent on SF teams where he didn't have crazy volume like DT (even with mediocre QBs, he's propped up by volume). He's only had two seasons in Oakland and they've both been good. He's got 3 more seasons in Oakland. How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

You keep looking backwards. We're talking about dynasty rankings. Had Crabtree played on that Denver team with Peyton as his QB, then I'm sure things would be different. His early years were spent on SF teams where he didn't have crazy volume like DT (even with mediocre QBs, he's propped up by volume). He's only had two seasons in Oakland and they've both been good. He's got 3 more seasons in Oakland. How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

All we have is the past to look at to see how guys perform, so it's very relevant. 

I don't see DT's volume going down all that much (he will probably have the third most targets of his career this year). And if he gets a "real" QB like Romo next year, watch out. He'll vault right back to the top 5.

I'll admit I'm higher on DT than most. I think he's an elite talent and will continue to be very good for the next few years. I think the big difference is that DT's QB really doesn't matter (I think you will agree that Brock and Peyton were absolutely horrible last year). If Carr ever gets hurt, Crabtree will really suffer. So I do think DT is a much better bet to post good numbers over the next few years than Crabtree.

And as I said earlier, I think Crabtree should be higher than WR 34 going forward. I just don't think he should be ranked really close to DT.

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16 hours ago, kutta said:

All we have is the past to look at to see how guys perform, so it's very relevant. 

I don't see DT's volume going down all that much (he will probably have the third most targets of his career this year). And if he gets a "real" QB like Romo next year, watch out. He'll vault right back to the top 5.

I'll admit I'm higher on DT than most. I think he's an elite talent and will continue to be very good for the next few years. I think the big difference is that DT's QB really doesn't matter (I think you will agree that Brock and Peyton were absolutely horrible last year). If Carr ever gets hurt, Crabtree will really suffer. So I do think DT is a much better bet to post good numbers over the next few years than Crabtree.

And as I said earlier, I think Crabtree should be higher than WR 34 going forward. I just don't think he should be ranked really close to DT.

Sure, the past can help predict future performance but the problem is that a WR's performance is largely tied to the system he's in. So basing future predictions off of Crabtree's SF days is stupid. He's not in SF anymore. He's got two years with Derek Carr under his belt and he'll have three more. Ignore SF, just look at the relevant years. As for DT, I'm sorry but the days of 4500 yards and 45 TDs passing in Denver are gone. Ignore those years because they aren't relevant anymore. Peyton isn't coming back. Look at the last two years. That's about what's he'll have going forward. Denver's aggregate QB last year was 12th in attempts and 14th in passing yards, so it's not like Old Peyton + Oz = absolutely horrible as you say. That many yards and attempts still produces WR points in a PPR format. That range of QB performance is probably what DT will be dealing with for the next few years, so 2015 and 2016 should be pretty good predictors for him. (so far this season, DEN QB = 18th in yards and 16th in attempts)

I don't know if you follow Matt Harmon's reception perception, but I'm a big fan. He broke down DT's film and I could be mistaken but my recollection was that he concluded DT was a good, but limited WR. So I disagree that he's elite. Ok, I took the time to look it up. Here's the article. I won't quote all of it, but here's a snippet:  Reception Perception illuminated what diligent tape watchers saw with their eyes. Demaryius Thomas, for all his prolific stats, is a glorified role player. One of the NFL’s best receivers, but inherently limited in what he brings to the table.  Thomas posted an above average SRVC score on only four routes—the screen, slant, post and nine. You’ll also notice that he accumulated almost all of his production or PTS on those same patterns. It’s striking to see one the NFL’s most prolific statistical producers grade out so limited.

Regardless of our labels for these guys, my questions that you didn't answer are still worth considering, so I'll ask them again:

How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

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Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

 

I think Thomas is a good player but id move him for any of those three pieces. 

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1 hour ago, Concept Coop said:

Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

 

I'd move him for 1.02 or 1.03 if you could (assuming not a Devy league).  I'd rather have Fournette, Cook, or Michael Williams.

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On 12/20/2016 at 2:07 PM, steelers1080 said:

I'd move him for 1.02 or 1.03 if you could (assuming not a Devy league).  I'd rather have Fournette, Cook, or Michael Williams.

Why do you think Michael Williams will be better than Thomas?

What Thomas has done as a rookie is remarkably good. I could see being concerned that Brees may get old and fall off, which could affect all Saints players, but Williams hasn't done a thing in the NFL yet. Do you feel confident that he will be able to replicate what Thomas has done as rookie?

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On 12/20/2016 at 0:37 PM, Concept Coop said:

Can you guys share your thoughts on Michael Thomas?  I'm holding in one league and can't decide if I should cash out or roll with him.  If he doesn't have legit NFL WR1 ability, I want to move on, but I'm having a hard time making that call.  His situation helps his production, but hurts my ability to make that call.  I've watched him a good deal and still don't feel confident either way.  Very good length, very good hands, very good routes.  Average athlete, doesn't play big, lacks bulk.  

FTR, I'll be targeting Cooks, 1.02 or 1.03 if I decide to move him.  

I don't have a lot of confidence in my perspective here, so take it with a grain of salt, but my feeling is that he's a sell high. And I wouldn't really want Cooks, either. I think both are inflated by Brees' ability and the system Sean Payton runs. IIRC, Matt Harmon's reception perception wasn't particularly glowing for either of those two players. With Brees getting older, I'd try to move both of those guys. Maybe see if you can find a disgruntled AR15 owner, or give up his youth for a better, older WR.

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21 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Why do you think Michael Williams will be better than Thomas?

What Thomas has done as a rookie is remarkably good. I could see being concerned that Brees may get old and fall off, which could affect all Saints players, but Williams hasn't done a thing in the NFL yet. Do you feel confident that he will be able to replicate what Thomas has done as rookie?

I don't necessarily think he'll be as good as a rookie, but I think he has more long-term potential (depending on what team he goes to).  He's 1.5 years younger and I don't trust any Saint to put up reliable numbers and who knows what will happen when Brees leaves (which could happen this offseason).  

And, I'm a fantasy risk taker.  Last year I traded Odell Beckham away at his height for a Lev Bell who had just torn ligaments and David Johnson who was a rookie who flashed some potential.  Turned out pretty well.

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On 12/16/2016 at 3:48 PM, Concept Coop said:

Rant:  Can anyone tell me why LeVeon Bell isn't more situation dependant than Zeke Elliott?  The Cowboys have a better line, but also see more 8 man fronts than anyone.  Sure, Darren McFadden put up 1,000 yards last year, but 32-33YO DeAngelo Williams is a high end RB1 when he starts.  If I'm a Zeke owner (PPR), I think I'd take him in PIT over DAL; short-term, at least. 

NO, they can't.  Because Bell is every bit as situation dependent as Zeke.  They're still either the top 2 or 2 of the top few RBs in the league, but they rely heavily on their teammates.  Pretty much the same as every RB not named Barry (maybe LT and AD in their prime) does. 

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On 12/20/2016 at 8:37 AM, FF Ninja said:

Sure, the past can help predict future performance but the problem is that a WR's performance is largely tied to the system he's in. So basing future predictions off of Crabtree's SF days is stupid. He's not in SF anymore. He's got two years with Derek Carr under his belt and he'll have three more. Ignore SF, just look at the relevant years. As for DT, I'm sorry but the days of 4500 yards and 45 TDs passing in Denver are gone. Ignore those years because they aren't relevant anymore. Peyton isn't coming back. Look at the last two years. That's about what's he'll have going forward. Denver's aggregate QB last year was 12th in attempts and 14th in passing yards, so it's not like Old Peyton + Oz = absolutely horrible as you say. That many yards and attempts still produces WR points in a PPR format. That range of QB performance is probably what DT will be dealing with for the next few years, so 2015 and 2016 should be pretty good predictors for him. (so far this season, DEN QB = 18th in yards and 16th in attempts)

I don't know if you follow Matt Harmon's reception perception, but I'm a big fan. He broke down DT's film and I could be mistaken but my recollection was that he concluded DT was a good, but limited WR. So I disagree that he's elite. Ok, I took the time to look it up. Here's the article. I won't quote all of it, but here's a snippet:  Reception Perception illuminated what diligent tape watchers saw with their eyes. Demaryius Thomas, for all his prolific stats, is a glorified role player. One of the NFL’s best receivers, but inherently limited in what he brings to the table.  Thomas posted an above average SRVC score on only four routes—the screen, slant, post and nine. You’ll also notice that he accumulated almost all of his production or PTS on those same patterns. It’s striking to see one the NFL’s most prolific statistical producers grade out so limited.

Regardless of our labels for these guys, my questions that you didn't answer are still worth considering, so I'll ask them again:

How confident are you that DT will outscore Crabtree in the next three years? Who do you think will be more productive at age 33+?

I think this last week is a good example of what you are pointing out. While DT has performed well with bad QB's over the past two years, Siemian was awful Sunday, and it followed that DT was bad too. I'm not going to change my thoughts on DT on one game, but it's pretty easy to see how DT could start declining if the QB play in Denver doesn't improve. I personally don't think they will stick with Siemian next year, and I could see them bringing in a vet like Romo, but we'll see. If that happens, I think DT's value goes up and he's easily a top 8 WR. 

Crabtree, on the other hand, has a more stable situation at QB, so his numbers shouldn't change much. However, Cooper had a down year and he could take numbers from Crabtree next year, so we'll see what happens there.

So, with that said, I still like DT over Crabtree, and I still agree that they shouldn't be ranked as far apart as you pointed out. But last week's games made me think about this thread a bit, and I will admit that these guys should be pretty darn close in dynasty rankings.

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Elliott is going to do to rookie RB speculative value what the 2014 WR class did for rookie WR value and those holding early picks should be able to really cash in.  If I had the 1.01 anywhere I'd definitely be looking to move it.  Best I ended up with was 1.03 in one league and 1.05 in another so I won't see that fallout unless I'm able to move up.

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Draft pick price check on Doug Martin. I was thinking of offering him up for a 2018 draft pick a couple of weeks ago. Now the whole benching thing has happened. Not sure what "name" value he has left.

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52 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Elliott is going to do to rookie RB speculative value what the 2014 WR class did for rookie WR value and those holding early picks should be able to really cash in.  If I had the 1.01 anywhere I'd definitely be looking to move it.  Best I ended up with was 1.03 in one league and 1.05 in another so I won't see that fallout unless I'm able to move up.

I ended up with 1.04 and 1.07. The guys with the top two picks have shown no desire to even talk trades. I am loaded at WR in my dyno; wondering if I trade back from 1.04, pick up extra picks and let other take a WR?  But will everyone go RB crazy in the top 6?

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12 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

Draft pick price check on Doug Martin. I was thinking of offering him up for a 2018 draft pick a couple of weeks ago. Now the whole benching thing has happened. Not sure what "name" value he has left.

Right now i think you'd be lucky to get a 2nd

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8 hours ago, kutta said:

I think this last week is a good example of what you are pointing out. While DT has performed well with bad QB's over the past two years, Siemian was awful Sunday, and it followed that DT was bad too. I'm not going to change my thoughts on DT on one game, but it's pretty easy to see how DT could start declining if the QB play in Denver doesn't improve. I personally don't think they will stick with Siemian next year, and I could see them bringing in a vet like Romo, but we'll see. If that happens, I think DT's value goes up and he's easily a top 8 WR. 

Crabtree, on the other hand, has a more stable situation at QB, so his numbers shouldn't change much. However, Cooper had a down year and he could take numbers from Crabtree next year, so we'll see what happens there.

So, with that said, I still like DT over Crabtree, and I still agree that they shouldn't be ranked as far apart as you pointed out. But last week's games made me think about this thread a bit, and I will admit that these guys should be pretty darn close in dynasty rankings.

:confused:Hard to say Cooper had a down year when he's only played 2 years and this year was better than last year. Sure, Cooper could develop and steal some targets, but there are plenty of targets to go around on that offense and it is no guarantee that Cooper will actually take that step. Through week 16 (in 1ppr) Crabtree is WR9, DT is WR13, and Cooper is WR14 (in standard they are 11, 16, 13 respectively). Cooper is the deep threat while Crabtree is better at the goal line. On the whole, I think they complement each other pretty well, so one should not negatively impact the other very much if at all. 

I'll admit, I thought DT was overrated as hell this year due to the fact he finished WR11 (WR13 0ppr) last year and had worse QBs this year, but I was wrong - he didn't slip nearly as much as I thought he would... however, I think this is the new reality for him, so I still think he's an overrated dynasty player largely due to name recognition from his Peyton days. I think he's got 2-3 more years of fringe WR1/2 production and then he'll fall off a cliff. If he's only got 4 good routes and the post and the nine are two of them, he's not going to be good when he slows down. If I was you, I'd consider moving him while he's still got value. The memory of the good days in Denver will fade soon and, right or wrong, he'll be ranked really low with the likes of Crabtree. However, I agree with you that if they bring in Romo, things will really look up for DT. That would definitely be the time to cash those chips in, given Romo's health. If they bring in Glennon, then I think he'd be worth hanging onto since Glennon can hit him deep.

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