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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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11 minutes ago, Milkman said:

If you're not a win now team I would sell. DJ is a little different because of how elite he is in the passing game. Bell comes with a ton of risk. 

You were linking RB age of 26 to a huge drop in value. Bell is elite in the passing game as well. He has off field stuff that isn't relevant to the age discussion but a massive value drop at 26 seems off to me.

I think an argument could always be made to move studs at any position that are a little older with huge value if you're not win now. I just don't agree that the stud RBs value drops that much when they hit their prime.

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5 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

You were linking RB age of 26 to a huge drop in value. Bell is elite in the passing game as well. He has off field stuff that isn't relevant to the age discussion but a massive value drop at 26 seems off to me.

I think an argument could always be made to move studs at any position that are a little older with huge value if you're not win now. I just don't agree that the stud RBs value drops that much when they hit their prime.

How many rb are elite for more than 4-5 years? 26 for a RB that had been used heavily is hardly his prime. 

Edited by Milkman

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29 minutes ago, Milkman said:

How many rb are elite for more than 4-5 years? 26 for a RB that had been used heavily is hardly his prime. 

How many RBs that were elite at 21/22 do we have data on to suggest this is the case? We know Peterson/Bell/LT/McCoy were elite in year 2/1 when they were 21/22. 3 of those 4 were elite Beyond the 4-5 year horizon. There aren't too many others I can think of in recent memory that were elite as rookies/21/22 yo to begin with. Please no T-Rich examples. His RY was nowhere near elite. Jury still out on Bell/DJ, etc.

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3 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

How many RBs that were elite at 21/22 do we have data on to suggest this is the case? We know Peterson/Bell/LT/McCoy were elite in year 2/1 when they were 21/22. 3 of those 4 were elite Beyond the 4-5 year horizon. There aren't too many others I can think of in recent memory that were elite as rookies/21/22 yo to begin with. Please no T-Rich examples. His RY was nowhere near elite. Jury still out on Bell/DJ, etc.

Hmmm how many weren't elite their rookie year? I know it's not a popular belief but I don't view EE as elite at this point. Good but not special behind a mega-elite OL. 

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35 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

How many RBs that were elite at 21/22 do we have data on to suggest this is the case? We know Peterson/Bell/LT/McCoy were elite in year 2/1 when they were 21/22. 3 of those 4 were elite Beyond the 4-5 year horizon. There aren't too many others I can think of in recent memory that were elite as rookies/21/22 yo to begin with. Please no T-Rich examples. His RY was nowhere near elite. Jury still out on Bell/DJ, etc.

I try to answer this question in the first post of this thread

Now I focus on averages of the entire population here. Those averages are made up of the whole population which includes outlier careers that are sucessful for much longer than the average number of good seasons, which by my definition was two good seasons

The last post of the thread addresses where Elliot is in terms of draft position and the career path of other players from this category.

50% of the RB who were drafted pick 5 or higher had 4 or more good fantasy seasons. So doubling the average of two seasons.. 

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So what's the market value of Lesean Mccoy these days?  For discussion purposes he is 29 years old (turns 29 in July, so 29 prior to week 1 next year). 

To me he seems like a sell-high right now.  Just wondering what people are willing to pay in terms of youth/picks for Mccoy if they need a RB to compete, or what it would take for someone to pry him from you if you were going to rebuild.  What WRs would you swap him for straight up if you had strength at RB and needed a WR.

Whereabouts would he go in startups?

 

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

Hmmm how many weren't elite their rookie year? I know it's not a popular belief but I don't view EE as elite at this point. Good but not special behind a mega-elite OL. 

Almost no RBs have been elite as Rookies. I'm not sure how a 1600 yard rushing  season/2000!YFS in 15 games isn't elite. What  metrics are you using? 

If you go and look back at elite RB seasons many of them have come from the population you describe as losing half their value. McCoy/Charles/Holmes/LT put up multiple elite seasons at age 26+ and this was the peak of their value. 2-3 years ago McCoy and Charles were consensus top 5 dynasty picks in their age 26/27 seasons.

 

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

So what's the market value of Lesean Mccoy these days?  For discussion purposes he is 29 years old (turns 29 in July, so 29 prior to week 1 next year). 

To me he seems like a sell-high right now.  Just wondering what people are willing to pay in terms of youth/picks for Mccoy if they need a RB to compete, or what it would take for someone to pry him from you if you were going to rebuild.  What WRs would you swap him for straight up if you had strength at RB and needed a WR.

Whereabouts would he go in startups?

 

DLF December ADP showed early 6th round but this excludes 2017 rookies. My guess is he'll settle in as a late 5th rounder in June. I moved him for Jordy straight up before the trade deadline and it won me the championship. I have a guy asking for 1.4/Prosise/white for McCoy (way too rich for me). If I owned him and wasn't competing I'd try to get 1.4 but would probably settle for 1.5/1.6.

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13 minutes ago, jeaton6 said:

Almost no RBs have been elite as Rookies. I'm not sure how a 1600 yard rushing  season/2000!YFS in 15 games isn't elite. What  metrics are you using? 

If you go and look back at elite RB seasons many of them have come from the population you describe as losing half their value. McCoy/Charles/Holmes/LT put up multiple elite seasons at age 26+ and this was the peak of their value. 2-3 years ago McCoy and Charles were consensus top 5 dynasty picks in their age 26/27 seasons.

 

Yeah I'm not doing a very good job communicating in this thread. Most definitely an elite season. No arguing that. Not sure Zeke is elite though. He's good not elite imo. I don't see elite on the field. I see good RB behind a mega-elite OL. 

 

Holmes and Charles were both late bloomers weren't they. Charles had only 4 seasons with 200+ carries. Holmes only had 4 seasons over 200 carries. 3 of them were over 300 carries.

I thought maybe Ray Rice but he broke down his 5 season and was forced to retire early so we'll never know. 

4 years of heavy usage and EE is done. At least if I was a betting man I'd say he'll be done.  Maybe it's just me that thinks that though.

Edited by Milkman

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What I think is getting missed in the RB/WR discussion here is how short WR careers are getting. This year 42 WRs had 800 receiving yards. How many of them were over 30? One old guy named Fitzgerald at 33 and J.Nelson at 31. That's all. The top 40 other guys were 30 or younger. RBs used to hit the wall at 30. That looks a lot like WRs are now hitting it at 31.

Admittedly, S.Smith had 799 yards at age 36 and Marshall had 788 at 32, but what is an almost 800 yard receiving year worth? Longevity on the WR side is shortening significantly. You might argue WRs have a extra 2 years at top production, in very rough numbers, but I don't think its any more than that. With scarcity strongly favoring early RB selections I don't know that early WR picks offer as much value as a lot of people think.

Edited by Catbird
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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

Yeah I'm not doing a very good job communicating in this thread. Most definitely an elite season. No arguing that. Not sure Zeke is elite though. He's good not elite imo. I don't see elite on the field. I see good RB behind a mega-elite OL. 

 

Holmes and Charles were both late bloomers weren't they. Charles had only 4 seasons with 200+ carries. Holmes only had 4 seasons over 200 carries. 3 of them were over 300 carries.

I thought maybe Ray Rice but he broke down his 5 season and was forced to retire early so we'll never know. 

4 years of heavy usage and EE is done. At least if I was a betting man I'd say he'll be done.  Maybe it's just me that thinks that though.

Holmes was a late bloomer. Charles not so much as he put up a 15 ppg PPR season as a 22 yo and only better then there excluding the injury seasons.His usage didn't really spike until the next season. Guess it comes down to definition of elite. Are you talking stats and ability to put up numbers regardless situation or   Flat out talent? If talent I'd argue there are a ton of guys who put up elite stats for a time that weren't elite talents. Either way I see Zeke as both. Dual threat with elite skillet and situation.

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4 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

So what's the market value of Lesean Mccoy these days?  For discussion purposes he is 29 years old (turns 29 in July, so 29 prior to week 1 next year). 

To me he seems like a sell-high right now.  Just wondering what people are willing to pay in terms of youth/picks for Mccoy if they need a RB to compete, or what it would take for someone to pry him from you if you were going to rebuild.  What WRs would you swap him for straight up if you had strength at RB and needed a WR.

Whereabouts would he go in startups?

 

Sold him around week 11. He and Gillislee for Corey Coleman and 2.11.

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4 hours ago, Catbird said:

What I think is getting missed in the RB/WR discussion here is how short WR careers are getting. This year 42 WRs had 800 receiving yards. How many of them were over 30? One old guy named Fitzgerald at 33 and J.Nelson at 31. That's all. The top 40 other guys were 30 or younger. RBs used to hit the wall at 30. That looks a lot like WRs are now hitting it at 31.

Admittedly, S.Smith had 799 yards at age 36 and Marshall had 788 at 32, but what is an almost 800 yard receiving year worth? Longevity on the WR side is shortening significantly. You might argue WRs have a extra 2 years at top production, in very rough numbers, but I don't think its any more than that. With scarcity strongly favoring early RB selections I don't know that early WR picks offer as much value as a lot of people think.

This is an interesting point. My first thought is are the careers getting shorter or are there just no "good" WRs over 30 (save the ones you referenced)? I remember arguing with a guy many years ago that Fitz wasn't old and would play well into his 30s as a productive FF WR.  I thought that because he was elite and a WR.  I guess I've always held the view that elite WRs will be useful into their early 30s. Now I'll need to revisit that thought. 

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The productivity of a WR based on their age can be isolated to show how players at this position perform. On average they do show some decline at age 30 similar to RB however that decline is more gradual and over several seasons compared to the more abrupt end of many RB careers.

Here is an acticle looking at this. The graph depicts the difference in drop in performance for QB RB and WR by age.

The big drop for WR is after age 33 although there is a decline usually from 30-33 it is more gradual.

For the RB the decline begins at age 25 which is gradual until age 28 where the decline becomes steeper.

QBs peak late their highest season being at 33 years old.

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13 hours ago, jeaton6 said:

Same issue here. Start 1 QB. I own Rodgers, Winston, Wilson, Dak and Tanny. Zero interest in them. Just have to hold til you find the right owner that has aging QB and/or finally realizes Dak/Winston are next Luck/Cam.

Best offer so far was Luck and Corey Coleman for a 2018 1st (middle of the road team) and Jordy Nelson.

Yeah, I'm going to hold...

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1 hour ago, Spike said:

Best offer so far was Luck and Corey Coleman for a 2018 1st (middle of the road team) and Jordy Nelson.

Yeah, I'm going to hold...

You were offered Luck and Corey Coleman for a 1st and Jordy and turned it down?

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I am kinda thinking Mccoy's ADP and trade value is higher than what people so far in this thread seem to think it is and will be as next season approaches. 

I am not saying it SHOULD be, but a RB like him coming off a season like this?  I see it all the time, people paying handsomely for guys like him, and the name recognition will only drive up the value. 

In one of my leagues I have Johnson, Bell, and Mccoy.  I was thinking of moving Mccoy, but if his value is only around a 5th or 6th round startup, I would just keep him and ride him into the dirt for the next couple years.

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6 minutes ago, Milkman said:

You were offered Luck and Corey Coleman for a 1st and Jordy and turned it down?

If he needs a QB, he should be driving over to the other owners house and signing the deal.

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13 minutes ago, Milkman said:

You were offered Luck and Corey Coleman for a 1st and Jordy and turned it down?

I assume he holds Luck, since the post he was quoting was in reference to the difficulty in trading QBs for anything of value.

Edited by SayWhat?
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Which of this group of RB would anyone see as a sell this off season?

 

Devontae Booker

Derrick Henry

Jordan Howard

Mark Ingram

Eddie Lacy

Dion Lewis

Spencer Ware

 

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32 minutes ago, Warhogs said:

Devontae Booker - didn't do well with his first opportunity, lost kubiak, cj anderson back, and they could draft a back. Would be happy to get a second for him.

Derrick Henry - top 10 dynasty rb. Don't sell for less than elite value.

Jordan Howard - would gladly sell for full price, if you can get it. Howard plus something could get you david johnson or bell, or you might get multiple firsts for him. Otherwise hold.

Mark Ingram - if there's any chance he's not with payton next year you have to hold for now. His value probably won't go down this offseason but it might go way up.

Eddie Lacy - all depends on what you can get for him. I would buy or sell depending on the price. He's probably worth a mid/late second in reality - a hit or miss guy with a huge distance between his floor and ceiling.

Dion Lewis - again, depends on the price. If you can get starting rb in new england price for him, do it. If you can get him for cheap flyer on an injury prone one hit wonder who disappointed last year, do it. The spread on his value is going to be pretty wide depending on the league

Spencer Ware - i would rather sell than buy right now. Since week 7 vs the saints, he had one game with a touchdown (two tds at atlanta) and no games with 100 total yards. His season totals look ok but he had 777 total yards and 3 tds in the first 6 games and 591 total yards and 2 tds in his last 8.  That's a drop from 121 yards and .5 tds per game to 74 yards and .25 tds per game. Sell before people figure that out.

 

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

I am kinda thinking Mccoy's ADP and trade value is higher than what people so far in this thread seem to think it is and will be as next season approaches. 

I am not saying it SHOULD be, but a RB like him coming off a season like this?  I see it all the time, people paying handsomely for guys like him, and the name recognition will only drive up the value. 

In one of my leagues I have Johnson, Bell, and Mccoy.  I was thinking of moving Mccoy, but if his value is only around a 5th or 6th round startup, I would just keep him and ride him into the dirt for the next couple years.

I actually think the opposite.  I don't think he'll fetch anything in the 1.4-1.5 range once the actual draft approaches.  People just don't trade much for 29 year old RBs anymore, and the offseason is the time where those guys are fetching their absolute least.

On top of that I think people will worry about how a coaching change and likely QB change will affect him.  He had a great season but his situation is very fluid and he is considered very old (for a RB).

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17 hours ago, Milkman said:

Yeah ill take 7-8 years of what I'm going to get from Cooper over the 4-5 years of what I'm going to get from Zeke.

Here's the thing: Zeke was 3 times more valuable than Cooper this year (standard PPR formats).  You don't get points for a young roster, at some point you have to turn those into compressed VBD.  If we assume Cooper's production improves 10% and Zeke's stays the same, Zeke's 4-5 years will be much more valuable than Cooper's 7-8.  

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Yeah, the next league I'm in that gives a multiplier for "number of years in the league" will be the first.

Like Coop pointed out, in the overlap years, I have to have a player PLUS Cooper to equal Zeke. 

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As an owner of both Zeke and Cooper, i value Zeke a lot more.  He's 21 and should be a huge difference maker over the next 5-8 years.  Cooper is good but there are a ton of WR's at the same level.  Replacing Cooper's production is doable, replacing Zeke's is close to impossible.

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14 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

So what's the market value of Lesean Mccoy these days?  For discussion purposes he is 29 years old (turns 29 in July, so 29 prior to week 1 next year). 

To me he seems like a sell-high right now.  Just wondering what people are willing to pay in terms of youth/picks for Mccoy if they need a RB to compete, or what it would take for someone to pry him from you if you were going to rebuild.  What WRs would you swap him for straight up if you had strength at RB and needed a WR.

Whereabouts would he go in startups?

 

 

I just traded J.Crowder and J. Hill for him in a standard PPR league.  

The problem with calling him a sell high is that the market isn't going to buy high.  The market overcorrected--it went from overvaluing older RBs to under valuing them.  Or undervaluing  longevity, to greatly overvaluing the perception of it.  

At some point, the points are worth more than what you're going to get.  Jordy, McCoy, Murray, and Crabtree (etc, etc) won people championships.  That's what I play for.  Getting exit value for my assets is great, but not at the expense of championships.  Sometimes the right play is to ride an asset to zero value.  28 is old for a back, but McCoy looked to have some gas left in the tank.  

Sorry, OP.  I'm not preaching at you.  Your (reasonable) question just happened to spark my rant. 

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1 hour ago, Warhogs said:

Which of this group of RB would anyone see as a sell this off season?

 

Devontae Booker

Derrick Henry

Jordan Howard

Mark Ingram

Eddie Lacy

Dion Lewis

Spencer Ware

 

I'd actively try to sell Booker and Ware.  Nothing sticks out to me as a buy, but I'd likely hold the rest.  I like Howard and Henry, but so does the market.  I wouldn't mind moving the others, but wouldn't count on getting good value for them.  

Edited by Concept Coop

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9 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

 

I just traded J.Crowder and J. Hill for him in a standard PPR league.  

The problem with calling him a sell high is that the market isn't going to buy high.  The market overcorrected--it went from overvaluing older RBs to under valuing them.  Or undervaluing  longevity, to greatly overvaluing the perception of it.  

At some point, the points are worth more than what you're going to get.  Jordy, McCoy, Murray, and Crabtree (etc, etc) won people championships.  That's what I play for.  Getting exit value for my assets is great, but not at the expense of championships.  Sometimes the right play is to ride an asset to zero value.  28 is old for a back, but McCoy looked to have some gas left in the tank.  

Sorry, OP.  I'm not preaching at you.  Your (reasonable) question just happened to spark my rant. 

With so few good RBs out there, I would imagine pretty much every league has someone who will "overpay" for Mccoy if presented the opportunity. 

If I could deal away Hill and Crowder for him, I would send the guy a 6 pack afterwards and say "thanks for the free Mccoy". 

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17 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I wouldn't say Cooper regressed.  He's an interesting player in that he's faded harshly down the stretch in each of his two years.  He was a big breakout early this year.  After week 11 he was on pace for something like 100+ catches and 1500 receiving yards.  

Had he kept that pace for the last month and a half he would probably be in the conversation for #1 overall dynasty asset right now.  But for the second straight year he ended up on the injury report down the stretch and his production suffered mightily.  He had 130+ receiving yards in 4 of his first 8 games and then barely broke 60 receiving yards once in his last 8.   Maybe it's just bad luck with injuries.  Maybe he's just not the kind of guy that can play strong through nagging injuries.  His career could still go either way but it's hard to complain TOO much about him finishing 8th in the NFL in receiving yards in his 2nd year after coming into the league as a young rookie.

He just finished his first 2 years with almost identical numbers to Mike Evans' first 2 years (155-2223-11 vs. 142-2257-15), yet people seemed to excited for those numbers from Evans and disappointed with them from Cooper.  Sure an ODB start would have been great but that's certainly the exception, not the rule.

Good post. 

My gut tells me that Cooper was especially pro-ready--and that we're being tempted to overrate his ceiling because of that.  He's in a great situation, so if Carr can do for him what Peyton did for Reggie, I'll be wrong about this (if I'm not for other reasons).  But in a vacuum, I don't think he projects to be an annual top 5 WR.  I don't see an OBJ ceiling. The lack of redzone production is troubling; he's getting the targets but not converting them.  He's super young and super talented and should be a very valuable asset.  I'm just not sure he'll reward those paying top 5 startup prices.  A baseline WR1 is easily the most overrated asset in the hobby, IMO.  

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11 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

With so few good RBs out there, I would imagine pretty much every league has someone who will "overpay" for Mccoy if presented the opportunity. 

Likely true.  Having the buy/sell conversations can be tricky.  There is no vacuum.  The only truly applicable measure of value is what you can do in your league(s).  

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

You were offered Luck and Corey Coleman for a 1st and Jordy and turned it down?

I was offered his 2018 1st and Jordy for my Luck/Coleman and turned it down.

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2 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

Here's the thing: Zeke was 3 times more valuable than Cooper this year (standard PPR formats).  You don't get points for a young roster, at some point you have to turn those into compressed VBD.  If we assume Cooper's production improves 10% and Zeke's stays the same, Zeke's 4-5 years will be much more valuable than Cooper's 7-8.  

Zekes already had one year with 300+ carries. You willing to bet he has 5 more of those left? I'm not. Also assuming Zeke's efficiency stays the same is basically saying he's going to have an historical 4-5 years. Its more likely his production drops some. Even an all time great like AP has had his yardage numbers fluctuate nearly 400 yards in his prime and 800 yards in his 7th season.  A 1200 yard season with 12 TD's is a great year for a RB and is totally in Zeke's range of outcomes. There might be some recency bias going on in regards to Zeke. Also Cooper has a good chance of improving more than 10% he's an elite WR who isn't even close to reaching his peak at 22 years old.

 

 

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2 hours ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

As an owner of both Zeke and Cooper, i value Zeke a lot more.  He's 21 and should be a huge difference maker over the next 5-8 years.  Cooper is good but there are a ton of WR's at the same level.  Replacing Cooper's production is doable, replacing Zeke's is close to impossible.

Highly unlikely that you get 8 years of elite production from EE. Hell you're probably a dog for 5 more years. Cooper is a buy low it seems. If Cooper explodes next season and EE takes a reasonable step back it, both outcomes that are not out of the question, it will be interesting to visit this again.

Edited by Milkman

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2 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Zekes already had one year with 300+ carries. You willing to bet he has 5 more of those left? I'm not. Also assuming Zeke's efficiency stays the same is basically saying he's going to have an historical 4-5 years. Its more likely his production drops some. Even an all time great like AP has had his yardage numbers fluctuate nearly 400 yards in his prime and 800 yards in his 7th season.  A 1200 yard season with 12 TD's is a great year for a RB and is totally in Zeke's range of outcomes. There might be some recency bias going on in regards to Zeke. Also Cooper has a good chance of improving more than 10% he's an elite WR who isn't even close to reaching his peak at 22 years old.

 

You're right about the variability.  Even the elitest of elite RBs don't put up 2000 yard seasons year after year.  It's a few mixed in here and there alongside otherwise merely "very good" seasons.

That is still worth a ton though and doesn't mean he's necessarily worth less than a young WR.  I think Concept Coop made a fair point about Cooper as well.  There is risk in him too, namely that he was so NFL ready coming into the league that he actually has been operating near his peak so far.  It could really go either way.  He may or may not ever have a 1500/15 type season in him.

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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

You're right about the variability.  Even the elitest of elite RBs don't put up 2000 yard seasons year after year.  It's a few mixed in here and there alongside otherwise merely "very good" seasons.

That is still worth a ton though and doesn't mean he's necessarily worth less than a young WR.  I think Concept Coop made a fair point about Cooper as well.  There is risk in him too, namely that he was so NFL ready coming into the league that he actually has been operating near his peak so far.  It could really go either way.  He may or may not ever have a 1500/15 type season in him.

That might be why I'm valuing him more than the board. I believe Cooper is the more talented player of the two and hasn't reached his peak. I get the positional value argument but there's a lot of risk in betting a RB is going to stay at EE's production level for even 4 years let alone 8. Assuming you're going to get 8 years from Zeke is a mistake imo...... 

Edited by Milkman

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

That might be why I'm valuing him more than the board. I believe Cooper is the more talented player of the two and hasn't reached his peak. I get the positional value argument but there's a lot of risk in betting a RB is going to stay at EE's production level for even 4 years let alone 8. Assuming you're going to get 8 years from Zeke is a mistake imo...... 

I don't think anyone expects 8 elite years out of any player.  Pretty much all players have down years (QB's, RB's, WR's, etc).  

When Zeke has en elite year he's gonna demolish Cooper VDB wise though, at least how the position landscapes look now.  There are just so many more solid WR's than RB's.  4 elite seasons out of Zeke is probably worth more than 8 out of Cooper, and Cooper hasn't had any elite seasons yet.  Who knows if he'll ever be a somewhat consistent 1,500/10 TD type guy.  I love Cooper, not intending to rip on him, but for him to be even comparable to Zeke he's gonna need to put up a few of those monster WR seasons.

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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

Zekes already had one year with 300+ carries. You willing to bet he has 5 more of those left? I'm not. Also assuming Zeke's efficiency stays the same is basically saying he's going to have an historical 4-5 years. Its more likely his production drops some. Even an all time great like AP has had his yardage numbers fluctuate nearly 400 yards in his prime and 800 yards in his 7th season.  A 1200 yard season with 12 TD's is a great year for a RB and is totally in Zeke's range of outcomes. There might be some recency bias going on in regards to Zeke. Also Cooper has a good chance of improving more than 10% he's an elite WR who isn't even close to reaching his peak at 22 years old.

I'm projecting 20 PPG from Zeke next year and expect to do so for quite some time.   The carry volume will dip, the target volume will increase, the TDs will fluctuate, and so on.  

If you think Cooper is in the Antonio Brown class and Zeke isn't an elite back, then of course you need to value Cooper more.  If you think they're both elite (or question both), the 21.5 YO RB is a no brainer.  I think Zeke is an elite NFL RB today.  I think Cooper has a chance to be an elite WR eventually.  No brainer for me.  

Edited by Concept Coop

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1 hour ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

When Zeke has en elite year he's gonna demolish Cooper VDB wise though, at least how the position landscapes look now. 

And trending.   

Edited by Concept Coop

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Everyone saying "sell Ware" - what do you think you'll get for him?  Everyone seems down in him after he fizzled out to low RB2 territory. 2nd round or 3rd round rookie pick?  Unless you can get "starting Chiefs RB" price, is t it best to hold and see if he can actually take that in 2017?

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28 minutes ago, Andrew74 said:

Everyone saying "sell Ware" - what do you think you'll get for him?  Everyone seems down in him after he fizzled out to low RB2 territory. 2nd round or 3rd round rookie pick?  Unless you can get "starting Chiefs RB" price, is t it best to hold and see if he can actually take that in 2017?

Agreed that now is not the time to sell him. Either he goes off in the playoffs and then interest in him will peak again, or you need wait till next season hoping he keeps the starting role and then sell as soon as he has a very good game. 

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5 hours ago, Concept Coop said:

And trending.   

Zeke looks more durable than most other backs, too..  I wouldn't be surprised with numerous years of solid production.

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4 hours ago, joey said:

Agreed that now is not the time to sell him. Either he goes off in the playoffs and then interest in him will peak again, or you need wait till next season hoping he keeps the starting role and then sell as soon as he has a very good game. 

I think you guys are hitting on why I feel most of those guys (except maybe Booker, and specifically Ingram/Ware/Lewis/Lacy, because Howard/Henry are valued highly based on youth) are buys. They are all "good NFL RBs" and will (should) continue to get work. Lacy seems like a blue light special. Everything about him is so disgusting right now. Except for the fact that he is actually kind of a good NFL RB.

Edited by thriftyrocker

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7 hours ago, Braktastic said:

Any thoughts on Tyreek Hill's dynasty value?

I hate this guy because his usage numbers kept telling me to not play him but he kept producing anyway. He no doubt will regress next year. But he's still a nice WR4 to have. I think he's a good candidate to do a trade down in value but turn a 4th into a late 2nd/early 3rd type of deal.

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All these guys seemed to come out of nowhere. I don't think any were top 200 players in startups before the season. Anyone buying? You could include Mike Wallace too, but I think his low preseason rating was due to bad taste not a true surprise. I like Tyrell due to "Keenan Allen coming back" discount.

18. Tyreek Hill
19. Tyrell Williams
20. Terrelle Pryor
24. Pierre Garcon
29. Kenny Britt
30. Adam Thielen
33. Cole Beasley
40. Cameron Meredith
41. Marqise Lee
45. Quincy Enunwa

 

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8 hours ago, DropKick said:

Zeke looks more durable than most other backs, too..  I wouldn't be surprised with numerous years of solid production.

Although I don't really have anything to back it up I've thought this throughout the season as well. The fact zeke is more of a compact player with shorter choppier steps and cuts leads me to believe he is more durable than a player like leveon or David Johnson that are exposed to more hits due to their upright, plant their foot in the ground running style

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19 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I actually think the opposite.  I don't think he'll fetch anything in the 1.4-1.5 range once the actual draft approaches.  People just don't trade much for 29 year old RBs anymore, and the offseason is the time where those guys are fetching their absolute least.

On top of that I think people will worry about how a coaching change and likely QB change will affect him.  He had a great season but his situation is very fluid and he is considered very old (for a RB).

Ghost guy was working off previous posts that mccoys value was 5th or 6th round startup value, not 5th or 6th overall pick

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1 minute ago, Skeletore Eh said:

Ghost guy was working off previous posts that mccoys value was 5th or 6th round startup value, not 5th or 6th overall pick

I Think free bagel is referencing 1.4-1.5 Rookie pick not startup pick.

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1 minute ago, jeaton6 said:

I Think free bagel is referencing 1.4-1.5 Rookie pick not startup pick.

And he was quoting someone that was referencing 5th or 6th round startup value 

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