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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)

I have to admit I am surprised by people saying Evans is worth that much more than Adams. I get it and I certainly don't think anyone is crazy to suggest it. But I consider them close to even. I could even make an argument for Adams being worth more based on their respective QBs. 

That being said I don't hate the Baltimore RBs for Gronk. I would likely not do this deal regardless of which side I was on. The Gronk retirement question is huge, though. Get what you can now or hold for a better deal that might never come? It's a damn difficult place to be.

 
barackdhouse said:
I have to admit I am surprised by people saying Evans is worth that much more than Adams. I get it and I certainly don't think anyone is crazy to suggest it. But I consider them close to even. I could even make an argument for Adams being worth more based on their respective QBs. 

That being said I don't hate the Baltimore RBs for Gronk. I would likely not do this deal regardless of which side I was on. The Gronk retirement question is huge, though. Get what you can now or hold for a better deal that might never come? It's a damn difficult place to be.
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3 concussions in 14 months is a valid concern for Adams.  I think Adams is in a better situation, but feel Evans is the better talent.  I would want quite a bit added to Adams to move Evans, personally.  Despite QB play, Evans has 1,000 yards in each of his 4 seasons.  Adams has yet to post a 1,000 yards in a season.  

 
Magic_Man said:
Now he tries Collins & Dixon for my Goff. Still no. I'm wondering if offering my 1.14 is too much to offer for Collins.(We have a developmental draft before rookie draft so the top rookie prospects are already spoken for aka the 1.14 pick is diluted & I also own the 1.13.)
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Thats not a bad price for Collins.

He is selling him and Dixon like Collins is a strong RB two.

 
Magic_Man said:
I think we sometimes get caught up in rankings & perceived value, though. Adams clearly out produced Evans last season & now with Cobb or Jordy likely gone he may even get better. I'm not saying I'd rather have one or the other, just saying that it's a real possibility Adams ends up the better fantasy player once again, Especially if Winston doesn't turn it around.
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Adams did become Rodgers WR one last year with Jordy Nelson healthy. Rodgers is much better than Winston. 

I still think Evans is the more talented player who can make QBs like Johnny Manziel look great. I don't think Adams can do that, but Rodgers is great.

Still just considering that even I do not see owners of Gronkowski selling him for Alex Collins. Surely he is worth more than that. I do like Collins but I expect him to split with Buck Allen or some other RB. Just the way it is.

 
Magic_Man said:
I'm not going to roll with just 1 QB. I think Goff is worth more than Collins anyway. What do you think of offering the 1.14 for Collins?
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As you said the rookie pool is diluted from devy picks already accounting for the best rookie players of 2018. So pick 1.14 is likely equivalent to pick 20 or so in a rookie draft that did not have devy options diluting the player pool.

So a late 2nd round pick to an early 3rd round pick seems like a bargain for Collins. He is obviously valuing Collins higher than that as he think he is worth Gronkowski.

 
Concept Coop said:
3 concussions in 14 months is a valid concern for Adams.  I think Adams is in a better situation, but feel Evans is the better talent.  I would want quite a bit added to Adams to move Evans, personally.  Despite QB play, Evans has 1,000 yards in each of his 4 seasons.  Adams has yet to post a 1,000 yards in a season.  
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Fun fact: Evans has 1 WR1 season with those 4 1,000 year seasons and Adams has 2 WR1 seasons with 0 1,000 yard seasons. I agree that Evans has more value now but this very likely is about Mike Evans mystique/pedigree and Adams starting his career off on a much different trajectory.

 
jeaton6 said:
Fun fact: Evans has 1 WR1 season with those 4 1,000 year seasons and Adams has 2 WR1 seasons with 0 1,000 yard seasons. I agree that Evans has more value now but this very likely is about Mike Evans mystique/pedigree and Adams starting his career off on a much different trajectory.
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Adams is what Randall Cobb was a few years ago to me.  (Granted, I'd bet on things going better for him.)  Call it mystique and pedigree, but I'm calling it talent.  Give me talent over situation.  

 
Magic_Man said:
I think we sometimes get caught up in rankings & perceived value, though. Adams clearly out produced Evans last season & now with Cobb or Jordy likely gone he may even get better. I'm not saying I'd rather have one or the other, just saying that it's a real possibility Adams ends up the better fantasy player once again, Especially if Winston doesn't turn it around.
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Are we betting on a Winston turnaround?  Asking about his own value, rather than Evans'.  I'm not a huge fan, but do think he's likely to get back to his 2016 production, at least.  

 
Concept Coop said:
Are we betting on a Winston turnaround?  Asking about his own value, rather than Evans'.  I'm not a huge fan, but do think he's likely to get back to his 2016 production, at least.  
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His completion percentage, Y/A, yards per game, and rating went up last year. He played 3 games hurt, lost 3.75 games to injury, and didn't have as good a TD rate. He didn't really regress. TB was a mess. Worst defense in the league. One of the worst backfields. If you look at the games after Winston came back he played well. I don't think there should be a question on whether he is a top 16 NFL QB. The question of whether he'll ever be a beneficial fantasy QB is still up in the air. I would have no problem investing in TB receivers. People are being too tough on Winston but I don't think that necessarily makes him a buy (I don't think he is any cheaper than Cousins or Garoppolo who I like better).

 
Concept Coop said:
Adams is what Randall Cobb was a few years ago to me.  (Granted, I'd bet on things going better for him.)  Call it mystique and pedigree, but I'm calling it talent.  Give me talent over situation.  
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Most people will agree with all that. I'm a fan of Evans, but I do wonder if I, and many others, are undervaluing Adams.

 
Concept Coop said:
Adams is what Randall Cobb was a few years ago to me.  (Granted, I'd bet on things going better for him.)  Call it mystique and pedigree, but I'm calling it talent.  Give me talent over situation.  
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The 2014 draft was amazing for WRs and in my view Evans has always been arguably the most talented WR of the whole group which was excellent. As a prospect Adams was borderline tier one for me. I considered him to be more of a WR two for his upside based on talent. He is very good at jump balls and scoring TDs but other aspects of his game needed time to develop.

Him being the primary target for Aaron Rodgers puts him in a similar tier with Evans I suppose for fantasy, but flip the two players teams and Evan's would be having some amazing seasons and Adams wouldn't be putting up near the same numbers with Tampa Bay. Evans is so good that Johnny Manziel was a 1st round pick. He makes QBs better.

I think Adams is more like James Jones as far as his play style and role in the Packers offense than Randall Cobb, but your point is well taken in that he may not be the Packers WR one for long. I don't think Adams is a top tier talent at WR and its possible the Packers find someone better than him in years ahead. Maybe not this year though.

I expected Jordy Nelson to continue to be the Packers WR one last season. That Adams was drawing Rhodes in single coverage and not Nelson is the main indicator to me that there has been a change from Nelson to Adams now. I wonder if that continues to be the case in 2018?

 
Concept Coop said:
Adams is what Randall Cobb was a few years ago to me.  (Granted, I'd bet on things going better for him.)  Call it mystique and pedigree, but I'm calling it talent.  Give me talent over situation.  
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Cobb always had Jordy to contend with. Adams is unlikely to and is likely to be Rodgers de facto #1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2014/2015 Jordy like numbers in 2018 for Adams (80/1400/10) If this happens his value=Evans.

 
jeaton6 said:
Cobb always had Jordy to contend with. Adams is unlikely to and is likely to be Rodgers de facto #1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2014/2015 Jordy like numbers in 2018 for Adams (80/1400/10) If this happens his value=Evans.
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In 2015 Cobb had a season where jordy was hurt all year and Cobb was the #1 receiver and he disappointed big time, which is likely what CC is referring to. 

Cobb was good when he wasn't the focus of defenses but wasn't capable of being "the guy". I don't necessarily think that's what Adams is (I like Adams personally) but there is at least some risk there. 

 
Biabreakable said:
As you said the rookie pool is diluted from devy picks already accounting for the best rookie players of 2018. So pick 1.14 is likely equivalent to pick 20 or so in a rookie draft that did not have devy options diluting the player pool.

So a late 2nd round pick to an early 3rd round pick seems like a bargain for Collins. He is obviously valuing Collins higher than that as he think he is worth Gronkowski.
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I would not trade Collins, who showed exceptional talent, for what is likely to be a RB drafted in the fourth round who hasn't proven anything in the NFL.  Given that your draft is diluted with developmental players already picked I would think a mid-first round would be necessary.  

 
FreeBaGeL said:
In 2015 Cobb had a season where jordy was hurt all year and Cobb was the #1 receiver and he disappointed big time, which is likely what CC is referring to. 

Cobb was good when he wasn't the focus of defenses but wasn't capable of being "the guy". I don't necessarily think that's what Adams is (I like Adams personally) but there is at least some risk there. 
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Yep there is risk. Right now Adams definitely worth less but what he did with Hundley as QB was impressive. 

 
What are everyone’s thoughts on Tyreek Hill? I’ll admit I wrote him off as a fluke after his rookie year and completely missed out on him everywhere last season.  He proved me wrong and looks to be a pretty good WR.  His skill set seems to line up perfectly with Mahomes and I don’t think we have seen his ceiling yet.  Where would you rank him among WRs? What do you see his prospects as this season and into the future? 

 
Raback said:
What are everyone’s thoughts on Tyreek Hill? I’ll admit I wrote him off as a fluke after his rookie year and completely missed out on him everywhere last season.  He proved me wrong and looks to be a pretty good WR.  His skill set seems to line up perfectly with Mahomes and I don’t think we have seen his ceiling yet.  Where would you rank him among WRs? What do you see his prospects as this season and into the future? 
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I’m all in on Tyreek. I’ve got him ranked 7th among WRs which is well higher than the average im sure. 

 
az_prof said:
I would not trade Collins, who showed exceptional talent, for what is likely to be a RB drafted in the fourth round who hasn't proven anything in the NFL.  Given that your draft is diluted with developmental players already picked I would think a mid-first round would be necessary.  
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Exceptional talent?  He was an afterthought in the NFL draft, got cut by his original club a year after he was drafted despite them needing running back help, didn't earn serious playing time until after Dixon got suspended and woodhead got hurt and still split carries 212 to 152 with an equally mediocre buck allen, and ended up with 973 yards and 6 touchdowns.

He played better than expected.  He was the best  of a bunch of seemingly bad options at running back for a non playoff team that had a soft schedule.  He might end up turning that opportunity into a career. I think "exceptional talent" might be pushing it. 

 
jeaton6 said:
Cobb always had Jordy to contend with. Adams is unlikely to and is likely to be Rodgers de facto #1. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 2014/2015 Jordy like numbers in 2018 for Adams (80/1400/10) If this happens his value=Evans.
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Not if Evans does the same. 

I don't want to argue against the optimism for Adams - I get it and it's justified.  I just feel pretty good drawing a line in the sand at Mike Evans. 

 
Concept Coop said:
Not if Evans does the same. 

I don't want to argue against the optimism for Adams - I get it and it's justified.  I just feel pretty good drawing a line in the sand at Mike Evans. 
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Here the thing, situations change.  Adams has a much better situation today, but that might not be true in 2 years.  Evans has much more talent and physical ability and that won't change, while his ceiling could easily rise with a few changes to his situation.

For 2018, sure, maybe they'll preform about the same.  But this is dynasty we're discussing, and these are young WRs with MANY years of play left ahead of them.  By 2021 I am very skeptical that Adams remains a top WR but I really believe Evans still will be.

 
(HULK) said:
Here the thing, situations change.  Adams has a much better situation today, but that might not be true in 2 years.  Evans has much more talent and physical ability and that won't change, while his ceiling could easily rise with a few changes to his situation.

For 2018, sure, maybe they'll preform about the same.  But this is dynasty we're discussing, and these are young WRs with MANY years of play left ahead of them.  By 2021 I am very skeptical that Adams remains a top WR but I really believe Evans still will be.
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Talent can be subjective.  I agree that Evans is probably more talented but what Adams did last year is pretty impressive given the huge disparity in situation.

And that's what I think you're missing here.  The situations were reversed last year.  Jameis in a bad year is still way better than Brett Hundley.  The Bucs were 4th in the NFL in passing last year with 4366 yards and the Packers were 25th with 3167 yet Adams outscored Evans in fantasy.

Like you said, situations change.  Last year Evans had a huge advantage in situation and scored less.  So what happens when that likely flips around next year and Green Bay adds an extra 2000 yards and 15 TDs to their passing offense?

I like Evans a lot more because like you, I perceive him as the better talent.  But it's not purely situation.  Adams just put together a borderline WR1 season in a situation that will likely be the worst he ever sees.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
what Adams did last year is pretty impressive
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This discussion has highlighted to me that Adams has remained in a bit of a blind spot for me. I don't mean to sound terribly negative with this question, but what exactly has Adams done that's so impressive over the last 2 years? As far as I can see, he's excelled in the most unpredictable stat (touchdowns) while putting up a rather moderate catch rate given his moderate to low YPR (I generally expect an inverse relationship between YPR and catch rate and for catch rate to decline as targets climb since that tends to attract more defensive attention).

If he is indeed the heir apparent in GB, and people expect Rodgers to stay, then talent doesn't matter that much after that contract extension. But if he gets passed over for a new WR1 then his value could take a hit. In regards to the discussion about Evans, I think his odds of Evans remaining a target hog #1 are much better than Adams. He's already done it for a few years while Adams' seemed to have overtaken the 32 year old Jordy last year, but the sample was marred by Hundley's presence. His 2016 had the benefit of playing in Jordy's shadow. 

So am I missing something really impressive about Adams or is it all about the TDs? I would not feel very good about making him a top 10 WR in a dynasty startup. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I don't get it. We want our WRs to get red zone targets and then when they do we get nervous because it's too unpredictable.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm
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By the way, this is where I will make my case for Sammy Watkins 

First, look at his red zone plays

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WatkSa00/red-zone-receiving-plays/2017

Now let's look at this excellent breakdown of Goff missing Watkins

https://twitter.com/Brickwallblitz/status/963574321443692547

So Goff hits him with great accuracy in the red zone but not on the deep stuff.  And we can put some of that clearly on Goff deep ball accuracy.  But watch some of those plays again, and you'll see Watkins breaking open towards the middle where he can take it to the house, while Goff then throws it to the sideline or away from the defender to protect the football. 

When Goff knows where Watkins is going, they're very successful together. 

When he doesn't, they aren't. 

An off season together should be huge. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
I don't get it. We want our WRs to get red zone targets and then when they do we get nervous because it's too unpredictable.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm
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I don't get it. Are you trying to say touchdowns are not unpredictable? I mean, red zone targets are great... Enjoy the TDs in the moment when they happen, but when the offseason comes, recognize which stats are predictable and which ones exhibit the most variance and use that knowledge accordingly when planning for the future. 

 
bostonfred said:
By the way, this is where I will make my case for Sammy Watkins 

First, look at his red zone plays

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WatkSa00/red-zone-receiving-plays/2017

Now let's look at this excellent breakdown of Goff missing Watkins

https://twitter.com/Brickwallblitz/status/963574321443692547

So Goff hits him with great accuracy in the red zone but not on the deep stuff.  And we can put some of that clearly on Goff deep ball accuracy.  But watch some of those plays again, and you'll see Watkins breaking open towards the middle where he can take it to the house, while Goff then throws it to the sideline or away from the defender to protect the football. 

When Goff knows where Watkins is going, they're very successful together. 

When he doesn't, they aren't. 

An off season together should be huge. 
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I don't think anyone is questioning the idea that Watkins has all the ability to be elite. The larger questions to me are:

1. Will Watkins remain healthy? (His track record says no and this puts the brakes on the upward momentum train for me, at least the one that sees him being any higher than a mid level WR2.)

2. How high can Watkins ascend on a team that would like to run first and also already has Woods and Kupp drawing sizable target shares? (Again- think this factor caps Watkins somewhere in the mid level WR2 tier).

 
Ack88 said:
I don't think anyone is questioning the idea that Watkins has all the ability to be elite. The larger questions to me are:

1. Will Watkins remain healthy? (His track record says no and this puts the brakes on the upward momentum train for me, at least the one that sees him being any higher than a mid level WR2.)

2. How high can Watkins ascend on a team that would like to run first and also already has Woods and Kupp drawing sizable target shares? (Again- think this factor caps Watkins somewhere in the mid level WR2 tier).
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Watkins is a free agent this offseason so he may not even be with the Rams - which could be a good thing or it could be bad thing.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Watkins is a free agent this offseason so he may not even be with the Rams - which could be a good thing or it could be bad thing.
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Today is the first day teams can start applying the franchise tag so there's still some time left for them to work out an extension before the March 1st tag deadline. Seems pretty crazy to trade a 2nd and a solid corner only to let Sammy walk the next offseason... or potentially a major red flag if they do let him walk.

 
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FF Ninja said:
This discussion has highlighted to me that Adams has remained in a bit of a blind spot for me. I don't mean to sound terribly negative with this question, but what exactly has Adams done that's so impressive over the last 2 years? As far as I can see, he's excelled in the most unpredictable stat (touchdowns) while putting up a rather moderate catch rate given his moderate to low YPR (I generally expect an inverse relationship between YPR and catch rate and for catch rate to decline as targets climb since that tends to attract more defensive attention).

If he is indeed the heir apparent in GB, and people expect Rodgers to stay, then talent doesn't matter that much after that contract extension. But if he gets passed over for a new WR1 then his value could take a hit. In regards to the discussion about Evans, I think his odds of Evans remaining a target hog #1 are much better than Adams. He's already done it for a few years while Adams' seemed to have overtaken the 32 year old Jordy last year, but the sample was marred by Hundley's presence. His 2016 had the benefit of playing in Jordy's shadow. 

So am I missing something really impressive about Adams or is it all about the TDs? I would not feel very good about making him a top 10 WR in a dynasty startup. 
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Well he just finished as WR14 despite missing two games and with Brett Hundley leading the way to 3200 passing yards to spread around the team.  Next year he'll get Aaron Rodgers and probably 4800 team passing yards to work with.  He was a WR1 (#9 WR) in ppg....again with Hundley as his QB.

In a league where we're shrugging off a down year from AJ Green because he was stuck playing with the "horrific" Andy Dalton, Adams just put up better fantasy numbers in fewer games with an even worse (likely substantially worse) QB. 

Seems impressive to me.

I agree with everything you said about their roles going forward, and Evans being much more likely to maintain his.  That's one of the reasons I like most of us likely have Evans (well) ahead of Adams in our rankings.  But I was responding to the point that the only reason Adams was able to keep up with Evans was because of situation, when last year the exact opposite was true.  Evans was the one playing in one of the league's highest volume passing offenses while Adams was playing in one of the league's lowest, yet Adams still outscored Evans despite playing in fewer games.

 
Well, anybody who scores a lot of TDs typically does well when it comes to points rankings. I'm just pondering if scoring a bunch of TDs makes him appear better than he is or if he's better than I realize and that's why he scores a bunch of TDs. If he had a high catch rate or more yards per reception, I would feel better about him. 

 
Adams has always had a high TD rate, has he not? I would think that with Rodgers, this wouldn't really change for the negative. He may even have room to go up with TDs if he has a "career season" or two in his future. Dude just turned 25 like a minute ago. Evans is there, too, I know.

 
FF Ninja said:
Well, anybody who scores a lot of TDs typically does well when it comes to points rankings. I'm just pondering if scoring a bunch of TDs makes him appear better than he is or if he's better than I realize and that's why he scores a bunch of TDs. If he had a high catch rate or more yards per reception, I would feel better about him. 
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Even without the TDs his 16 game pace last year was for 85 receptions and 1074 yards, again playing with Brett Hundley and one of the league's lowest volume passing offenses.  I'd expect Green Bay's completions and passing yards to go up 30-50% next year.

I'm not sure why you're bringing up catch rate in a discussion centering around him and Evans.  Adams' catch rate the last two years has been 62% and 62.7%.  Mike Evans' career high catch rate for a season is 56%.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Even without the TDs his 16 game pace last year was for 85 receptions and 1074 yards, again playing with Brett Hundley and one of the league's lowest volume passing offenses.  I'd expect Green Bay's completions and passing yards to go up 30-50% next year.

I'm not sure why you're bringing up catch rate in a discussion centering around him and Evans.  Adams' catch rate the last two years has been 62% and 62.7%.  Mike Evans' career high catch rate for a season is 56%.
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It goes back to YPR and volume. Adams was the WR2 to Jordy in 2016, with 121 targets and managed 13.3 YPR. Evans has been attracting the CB1 and double teams while averaging 14.8 YPR. I expect at least a 6% difference given that situation. But again, I'm just curious if I'm missing something here. At this point I wouldn't even test the waters of bidding Adams up in a startup. I'd just let someone else have him at a discount rather than possibly land him around the 10th-12th highest priced WR.

So is there something enticing about Adams beyond his touchdowns and the fact he's got the best QB? Or should those things alone make him a top 10 dynasty WR? I get the feeling the door will always be cracked for someone to come in and become Rodgers' favorite target.

 
FF Ninja said:
It goes back to YPR and volume. Adams was the WR2 to Jordy in 2016, with 121 targets and managed 13.3 YPR. Evans has been attracting the CB1 and double teams while averaging 14.8 YPR. I expect at least a 6% difference given that situation. But again, I'm just curious if I'm missing something here. At this point I wouldn't even test the waters of bidding Adams up in a startup. I'd just let someone else have him at a discount rather than possibly land him around the 10th-12th highest priced WR.

So is there something enticing about Adams beyond his touchdowns and the fact he's got the best QB? Or should those things alone make him a top 10 dynasty WR? I get the feeling the door will always be cracked for someone to come in and become Rodgers' favorite target.
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I think you're underselling him as a player.  He's good.  PFF ranked him as the 12th best WR this year.  He's good, he's young, and he's in a goldmine of a situation.  That's what makes him a top 10 dynasty WR right now.    

 
Concept Coop said:
I think you're underselling him as a player.  He's good.  PFF ranked him as the 12th best WR this year.  He's good, he's young, and he's in a goldmine of a situation.  That's what makes him a top 10 dynasty WR right now.    
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Yeah, he didn’t come out of nowhere. He was a second round NFL pick and a highly regarded prospect.

 
Concept Coop said:
I think you're underselling him as a player.  He's good.  PFF ranked him as the 12th best WR this year.  He's good, he's young, and he's in a goldmine of a situation.  That's what makes him a top 10 dynasty WR right now.    
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CJA was PFF's 6th best RB this year, but I hear he's wouldn't even give Drake much competition  ;)  

Dr. Octopus said:
Yeah, he didn’t come out of nowhere. He was a second round NFL pick and a highly regarded prospect.
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I've admitted he's a blind spot for me, but I'm not unaware of his draft pedigree, I just don't see anything that stands out when I watch him play. Like you kinda always knew when you watched AJ Green play that he was going to be his team's WR1 even when he's 32. I just don't get that sense with Adams. Like I was saying I'd be scared to make him the ~WR8 in a dynasty league. Would feel much more comfortable holding out for someone cheaper and hedging my bets. But I'm obviously breaking the "3 year window" rule that many use in dynasty. His 3 year window is indeed appealing.

Boston said:
The Pack also committed a nice chunk of change to him as well...
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Cobb's contract was considered a nice chunk of change when he was signed, too.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Backs like what? What do these guys have in common?
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Bigger, stronger backs who score highly on their elusive rating for breaking tackles.   EBF pointed out that these guys score higher in elusive rating than guys like Tarik Cohen.

I also think it punishes guys like Barry Sanders, and inflates "steady Eddies", in the sense that the scale is capped at +/- 3.  Two good runs (2/3) are more valuable than one great run (3/3) and one neutral run (0/3), even if the great one is game changing, and the good ones are not.  

Only the feel I get from it, and I could certainly be off or misunderstanding the system.  But any subjective system is going to have its holes.  But the fact that is subjective is what gives their scoring system it's value.

 
FF Ninja said:
It goes back to YPR and volume. Adams was the WR2 to Jordy in 2016, with 121 targets and managed 13.3 YPR. Evans has been attracting the CB1 and double teams while averaging 14.8 YPR. I expect at least a 6% difference given that situation. But again, I'm just curious if I'm missing something here. At this point I wouldn't even test the waters of bidding Adams up in a startup. I'd just let someone else have him at a discount rather than possibly land him around the 10th-12th highest priced WR.

So is there something enticing about Adams beyond his touchdowns and the fact he's got the best QB? Or should those things alone make him a top 10 dynasty WR? I get the feeling the door will always be cracked for someone to come in and become Rodgers' favorite target.
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This is an interesting discussion. As @FreeBaGeL pointed out, Adams' 16 game pace was 85 receptions and 1074 yards. Evans had 71 for 1001 yards in 16 games. Adams had 10 TD's, Evans had 5 TD's. And this was with Adams playing with a bad QB, and Evans playing with his QB of the future. Adams also had more receptions than Evans even missing 2 games (74).

So the ONLY stat that Evans beat Adams in is YPR. Adams had more receptions, more yards (prorated) and more TD's, while playing with a worse QB on a worse offense. I guess I'm not sure what's not to like.

 
Concept Coop said:
Bigger, stronger backs who score highly on their elusive rating for breaking tackles.   EBF pointed out that these guys score higher in elusive rating than guys like Tarik Cohen.
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Trent Richardson would routinely rate high on their elusive ranking if I'm not mistaken.

 
kutta said:
This is an interesting discussion. As @FreeBaGeL pointed out, Adams' 16 game pace was 85 receptions and 1074 yards. Evans had 71 for 1001 yards in 16 games. Adams had 10 TD's, Evans had 5 TD's. And this was with Adams playing with a bad QB, and Evans playing with his QB of the future. Adams also had more receptions than Evans even missing 2 games (74).

So the ONLY stat that Evans beat Adams in is YPR. Adams had more receptions, more yards (prorated) and more TD's, while playing with a worse QB on a worse offense. I guess I'm not sure what's not to like.
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But we've got four years of watching Evans be the #1. No need to just focus on one year. Adams sample size isn't as large or definitive... he struggled out of the gate (mediocre year 1, bad year 2), had a nice 3rd year* as the WR2 playing with the best QB in the league, then had a decent 4th year with bad QB play. I should point out that I don't think very many people think Adams = Evans, so that's not really an important debate to me. My real question is what am I missing about Adams that makes people comfortable with him as their WR1 in dynasty? If you strictly adhere to the 3-year window rule, I get it. But I just don't get the feeling that Adams will still be putting up WR1 numbers by the time he hits 30. 

*That 3rd year was very similar to Cobb's 2nd year and not as good as Cobb's 4th year. 

 
I need a price check on Duke Johnson in PPR.

Finished 11th at RB last year with a solid 13.76 per game. He seems like an undervalued high floor RB in ppr, and is a FA next year.

 
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