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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread

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3 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I'd do a dynasty start up mock with commentary if anyone else wants to join. 

I'm down if there is still room.

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As far as the conversation about Michael Thomas (nice read) I think it is remarkable that he performed at a level similar to Colston. This is one of those situations where everything worked out how a lot of us saw Thomas fitting in, becoming the next Colston for the Saints.

One thing that is obvious but was not mentioned is that Thomas was a rookie. Players usually get better going into their second and third seasons. Colston's numbers improved from his rookie year, Thomas's number might too.

The only real caution here is if Sean Payton moves on or Brees declines.

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3 hours ago, maf005 said:

What's everyone's explanation on Treadwell not getting on the field as a rookie? I see him being priced as a late 1st/early 2nd round rookie pick and that is assuming he wasn't able to grasp the offense etc. But imo it's more likely the coaches being dumb (an old school coach not giving playing time to a rookie, making him "earn it")

I have talked about this a bit in the Treadwell thread

Treadwell looked poised to start getting some playing time in the game where he had his only reception of the season. He got a hamstring or some sort of injury right after that and disappeared from playing time again.

He has made some good blocks and made some plays on special teams.

If he is still being priced as a 1st round value I don't really agree with that outlook. Treadwell has limitations as far as speed and route running ability. I am not sure why the Vikings keep drafting such raw players that require additional coaching. That seems to be their method especially since Zimmer arrived. The Vikings have drafted some good athletes who still have a lot to learn about football.

Treadwell isn't a athletic standout for the WR position. and he has not demonstrated technical proficiency either. So I don't see a lot of reason to be optimistic about him in fantasy.

Both Patterson and Thielen are free agents this season. I would expect the Vikings to try to keep both. I think it is very likely Adam Thielen is re-signed as he is a team favorite and a local player from Minnesota. Patterson I am less sure about being back, it depends on the money and Patterson may opt to go to another team. The Vikings did not pick up his 5th year option.

I think DIggs is the Vikings best WR who is likely to lead the team in targets whenever healthy. Adam Thielen keeps playing well and exceeding expectations. He has even made a push for possibly overtaking Diggs in the pecking order. So this is something to keep an eye on moving forward.

As already mentioned by Warhogs, there may not be a starting role available for Treadwell in 2017. Especially if both Patterson and Thielen are re-signed.

 

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2017 dynasty commentary draft

1 bostonfred*

2 Dezbelief

3 Menobrown

4 Concept coop

5 Milkman

6 Biabreakable

 

Guest writers

Ghostguy

* i will sit out if we have enough interest

I would like to do this for I have some questions in mind for people at the end.

If possible i would like to assume .5 ppr, 6 pts all tds and -2 all turnovers with no kickers or ds to make this as generic as possible, but im open to whatever.  Up to you guys how many rounds.

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Michael Thomas made some catches.  The offense and Breese sure do help, but he still has to go out there and make the plays, right? 

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2 minutes ago, cockroach said:

Michael Thomas made some catches.  The offense and Breese sure do help, but he still has to go out there and make the plays, right? 

Yep.  Just like Hopkins continued to make plays this year once Osw...........................

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11 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

2017 dynasty commentary draft

I would like to do this for I have some questions in mind for people at the end.

If possible i would like to assume .5 ppr, 6 pts all tds and -2 all turnovers with no kickers or ds to make this as generic as possible, but im open to whatever.  Up to you guys how many rounds.

New thread for this? Or somehow have it updated on the 1st post?

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1 minute ago, ghostguy123 said:

Yep.  Just like Hopkins continued to make plays this year once Osw...........................

And Robinson with the guy he did it with the year before.  It's pretty likely he will have more years than not outside of the top 10

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4 hours ago, maf005 said:

I don't remember any pre-draft concerns regarding Treadwell not being smart/focused enough to pick up the playbook, and it's not like his routes were ugly. 

Actually after digging into it a bit more, I'm leaning toward Zimmer just being a nut.

For people who believe this, how do you reconcile it with the fact that Diggs flashed early and often and eventually won the WR1 job as a rookie 5th round pick? It just doesn't fit. This is about Treadwell's shortcomings, not Zimmer's.

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32 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

For people who believe this, how do you reconcile it with the fact that Diggs flashed early and often and eventually won the WR1 job as a rookie 5th round pick? It just doesn't fit. This is about Treadwell's shortcomings, not Zimmer's.

Diggs was a big time college recruit and fell in the draft because of injuries, not perceived lack of talent.

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3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Diggs was a big time college recruit and fell in the draft because of injuries, not perceived lack of talent.

As well as choosing to stay home and help the local program, rather than going to a bigger program. I know that, I have always been big on Diggs. I was taking him in 1 round devy drafts after a disappointing year at MD, because of his pedigree and flashes.

My point stands--Diggs arguably had the talent of an early round WR, and earned his playing time by showcasing it. He forced the coaches to get him on the field and earned his targets. Treadwell WAS actually an early round WR, and hardly saw the field.

This isn't just Zimmer, its Treadwell. That was my point.

Edited by ConnSKINS26

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

New thread for this? Or somehow have it updated on the 1st post?

New thread would be good. It will be much easier to follow along.

I'll be in at last resort if it's a slow draft. I'm really busy over the next few weeks but will be happy to take part if needed.

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

.

If possible i would like to assume .5 ppr, 6 pts all tds and -2 all turnovers with no kickers or ds to make this as generic as possible, but im open to whatever.  Up to you guys how many rounds.

I don't know what rest of you play but I only play full PPR at minimum, a lot of TE premium leagues and all leagues are 4 points for passing TD's and 6 otherwise. If I had one request it would be full PPR across the board, a little out of my wheelhouse any other way.

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

I don't know what rest of you play but I only play full PPR at minimum, a lot of TE premium leagues and all leagues are 4 points for passing TD's and 6 otherwise. If I had one request it would be full PPR across the board, a little out of my wheelhouse any other way.

I think whether it is 0.5ppr or 1ppr, or 1ppr for TE or TE premium, the positional rankings shouldn't change too much. 

RBs may go a little higher in 0.5ppr though, but I think we should all be able to see what people are thinking.

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As far as the mock draft goes I am open to whatever format for scoring that the majority prefers. How many rounds I am open to that also.

We can have some designated drafters with alternates who can take over if anyone is out of the loop too long. No real need to hold things up when its only a mock draft.

Could post the mock in the Mock drafts R US section and just leave a link here in this thread.

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5 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I think whether it is 0.5ppr or 1ppr, or 1ppr for TE or TE premium, the positional rankings shouldn't change too much. 

RBs may go a little higher in 0.5ppr though, but I think we should all be able to see what people are thinking.

Honestly don't know impact. My smallest dynasty league is .75 PPR for RB's, 1 for WR's and 1.25 for TE's and that is only league in past 15 years I've played that was not full PPR at minimum.

I'm good with whatever, was not trying to tailor it for me, just offering my suggestions. I'll probably just draft like it's full PPR anyway.

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8 hours ago, Warhogs said:

My biggest concern with Treadwell is that Diggs seems to be locked in at a WR and Thielen is probably locked in at the other spot.  Thielen played really well.  I don't see any immediate opportunity for Treadwell so I would avoid him.

We've also had a virtual parade of Vikings WRs that were going to be locked in; Thielen, Diggs, Johnson, Patterson... not sure the whole thing isn't hot garbage - never mind Treadwell.

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18 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

12 team dynasty value question for FFPC.  Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 flex.

I am speaking here about the combination of Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson.  If you had another decent QB on your team and are competing but also looking to swap Nelson for a high end younger piece, what ONE player would you be willing to take for these two players.  Please be realistic, cause you most likely aren't getting OBJ, Elliot, Bell..............at least I wouldn't think so. 

On the flip side, if you are looking to make a push and need a QB, what is the best ONE player you would be willing to move for both guys?

I have no idea where ROdgers and Nelson are going to go in startup drafts.  Trade value and start up value are not always super similar, especially with QBs, but I would imagine it's at least a starting point to try and figure out the total value if you are going to try and negotiate with someone. 

With the horrendous value of QBs in FFPC leagues, Rodgers is a nice piece but he won't add a tremendous amount of value. I'd say you could ask for, and get from certain teams, the WR or RB in the range of 6 - 10.

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What team would most improve C. Patterson's value?

Arizona?  On a team like that with BA, he could just run fast and catch deep bombs all the time.

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9 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

What team would most improve C. Patterson's value?

Arizona?  On a team like that with BA, he could just run fast and catch deep bombs all the time.

He's not really that type of player but he could fit in Baltimore, Oakland, Denver, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Carolina.

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

He's not really that type of player but he could fit in Baltimore, Oakland, Denver, San Diego, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Carolina.

Didn't think about that, but Philly would be a good fit because they love gadget plays, and he could have a Tyreek Hill type season there. They seem focused on building through the draft, so he could be a decent low cost option. Who knows. Most of local media is focused on Kenny Stills though.

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6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Greg Olsen in non-ppr...worth a 1st rounder?

Will be 32 headed into next season. Not a big TD threat. I wouldn't think so. 

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He should have a couple more years of te1 production, maybe all as a top 5 te. I think he'd be worth a late first to a title contender who was one piece away as the absolute high end of what you could get for him, but odds are you won't find a deal that favorable and the longer you wait the less you'll get. I would like two random seconds for him on the high end, would probably take a mid 2017 2nd, and would probably reject a projected late 2018 2nd. 

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13 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

How far apart will Mccoy and Derrick Henry be in startup drafts (12 team PPR).  Ready....GO!!!

I'd guess a round or two in Henry's favor, which feels about right.  I'm not on board with 3rd round startup prices for Henry, but would add a bit to McCoy to land him, in most cases. 

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48 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

Didn't think about that, but Philly would be a good fit because they love gadget plays, and he could have a Tyreek Hill type season there. They seem focused on building through the draft, so he could be a decent low cost option. Who knows. Most of local media is focused on Kenny Stills though.

Would love to see Stills go to Philly

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16 hours ago, bostonfred said:

2017 dynasty commentary draft

1 bostonfred*

2 Dezbelief

3 Menobrown

4 Concept coop

5 Milkman

6 Biabreakable

 

Guest writers

Ghostguy

* i will sit out if we have enough interest

I would like to do this for I have some questions in mind for people at the end.

If possible i would like to assume .5 ppr, 6 pts all tds and -2 all turnovers with no kickers or ds to make this as generic as possible, but im open to whatever.  Up to you guys how many rounds.

Works for me and I'm up for whatever.  I'd likely lean full PPR as it's more common, but NBD.  I'd suggest at least 10 rounds, 20 max.  But again, I'm easy.  

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In to do a mock as long as there's a clock on picks. 

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20 minutes ago, maf005 said:

What's everyone's explanation on Treadwell not getting on the field as a rookie? I see him being priced as a late 1st/early 2nd round rookie pick and that is assuming he wasn't able to grasp the offense etc. But imo it's more likely the coaches being dumb (an old school coach not giving playing time to a rookie, making him "earn it")

 

5 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

I think it's a big red flag, personally.  Not sure what's going on, but it's a bad sign.  I like Zimmer and would give him the benefit of the doubt.  Especially considering that when we did see Treadwell on the field, he was running the wrong routes.  I'm not completely writing him off, but am not really looking to buy at his reduced price either.  I wasn't especially high on him during rookie drafts, FWIW.  

It's certainly a mystery.  It may not be as bad as it looks, but it looks bad.  Personally I think a big part of it is Bradford's preference.  Bradford waits for a guy to break open and hits him in space, that's a big reason why Thielen got so much action.  Bradford doesn't throw it to a spot trusting they will go get it.  Treadwell's game is a horrible fit for that.  He's not a guy that gets separation and gives the QB a big window of comfort to throw to.  I could see Zimmer being a big part of this, wanting Treadwell to be more precise so that Bradford can get more confidence in throwing it to a spot.

This wasn't a concern when TBW was the QB.  We saw him have plenty of success in college throwing to a very similar player in Devante Parker and he looked like he had plenty of confidence to make tough throws.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

It's certainly a mystery.  It may not be as bad as it looks, but it looks bad.  Personally I think a big part of it is Bradford's preference.  Bradford waits for a guy to break open and hits him in space, that's a big reason why Thielen got so much action.  Bradford doesn't throw it to a spot trusting they will go get it.  Treadwell's game is a horrible fit for that.  He's not a guy that gets separation and gives the QB a big window of comfort to throw to.  I could see Zimmer being a big part of this, wanting Treadwell to be more precise so that Bradford can get more confidence in throwing it to a spot.

This wasn't a concern when TBW was the QB.  We saw him have plenty of success in college throwing to a very similar player in Devante Parker and he looked like he had plenty of confidence to make tough throws.

The only 1st round WR I can recall racking up healthy DNPs like this in his first year was A.J.Jenkins.  That's scary to me.  Zimmer's boss selected Treadwell--there's built in incentive to play him right there.  The offense was hot garbage and featured only one redzone threat.  Yet, Treadwell was an afterthought.  And it's not just that he was beat out by Diggs and Thielen. He was beat out by Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright and Cordarralle Patterson.  I just don't know what to make of it.  The notion that Zimmer was simply hazing the rookie doesn't strike me as likely.  I think Treadwell's the biggest part of this.  

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16 minutes ago, Concept Coop said:

The only 1st round WR I can recall racking up healthy DNPs like this in his first year was A.J.Jenkins.  That's scary to me.  Zimmer's boss selected Treadwell--there's built in incentive to play him right there.  The offense was hot garbage and featured only one redzone threat.  Yet, Treadwell was an afterthought.  And it's not just that he was beat out by Diggs and Thielen. He was beat out by Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright and Cordarralle Patterson.  I just don't know what to make of it.  The notion that Zimmer was simply hazing the rookie doesn't strike me as likely.  I think Treadwell's the biggest part of this.  

No doubt, but the why is important to me.  We don't know much about Zimmer.  He might be the kind of guy that trusts his process of "you don't put a guy in until you see what you need from him in practice".  You trust your defense, your QB, your coaches, and your other players.  Gase did the same with Ajayi and got a great response.  It's more alarming here because it's longer, but it could just be the same thing.  Note we don't know exactly how many of those DNP's were actually healthy, there was a hamstring injury in there somewhere.  But if it's just a bad fit with him and the QB then maybe I can hang tight to see how that plays out.  If TBW is able to return I'd feel a lot better about that. 

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17 hours ago, bostonfred said:

2017 dynasty commentary draft

1 bostonfred*

2 Dezbelief

3 Menobrown

4 Concept coop

5 Milkman

6 Biabreakable

 

Guest writers

Ghostguy

* i will sit out if we have enough interest

I would like to do this for I have some questions in mind for people at the end.

If possible i would like to assume .5 ppr, 6 pts all tds and -2 all turnovers with no kickers or ds to make this as generic as possible, but im open to whatever.  Up to you guys how many rounds.

We need some more people.

I had a suggestion, just a suggestion. What does everyone think of drafting rookie draft position instead of actual rookies?  So I mean drafting 1.1 instead of say Fournette? I was just thinking of this because if we are doing this as somewhat of an exercise to see where people are at and how they value certain assets the pick would be more relative to then the player since that is what is actually a moveable asset today. Meaning I can trade 1.1 today, I can't trade Fournette.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Greg Olsen in non-ppr...worth a 1st rounder?

No way.  He's not a difference maker.  Giving up 1sts for players like Olsen is a losing proposition in dynasty leagues.

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One thing I noticed from the dynasty mocks I took part in last year was that I was often drafting to a strategy and not best player available.

Now that is what happens in a real draft so I do think it is appropriate for owners to draft with building a competitive team that covers the starting requirements.

However for a mock draft list, I think what people are likely more interested in, or what they are looking for is the best player available, as a guide for what players may be closely valued and which are not.

So if we just drafted BPA instead of trying to build the best team for the starting requirements then it won't even matter what order we draft them in  Whoever is checking in could just make the next pick and the draft gets done pretty quickly I would think as anyone could make the next pick.

Or maybe that is too open ended or somehow an organizational nightmare. I am not against some structure.

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I'd be in for the mock if you need another, I agree that BPA would be most useful and for the most part in a dynasty start-up is how I draft anyway

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Do you guys still do snake drafts for dynasty start-ups? That's the reason I haven't signed up for this potential mock - I'd never do a snake draft start-up so not only do I not see the point in doing that kind of mock, but I wouldn't be a very useful gauge of value for the rest of you since I'd be a fish out of water. Auction is really the only way to go, IMHO. 

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11 minutes ago, SayWhat? said:

No way.  He's not a difference maker.  Giving up 1sts for players like Olsen is a losing proposition in dynasty leagues.

I'm contemplating trading him away. Trying to gauge value.

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Do you guys still do snake drafts for dynasty start-ups? That's the reason I haven't signed up for this potential mock - I'd never do a snake draft start-up so not only do I not see the point in doing that kind of mock, but I wouldn't be a very useful gauge of value for the rest of you since I'd be a fish out of water. Auction is really the only way to go, IMHO. 

This is interesting. The goal is to come up with a relative list of best player available to come up with a consensus value chart. I don't really care if it's a mock draft or something else but i don't want to do a poll in the shark pool for every pick like we do for the rookie drafts. 

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1 minute ago, bostonfred said:

This is interesting. The goal is to come up with a relative list of best player available to come up with a consensus value chart. I don't really care if it's a mock draft or something else but i don't want to do a poll in the shark pool for every pick like we do for the rookie drafts. 

Yeah, that would be painful.

If you're just looking for consensus value charts, those are available all over the place. I would think an expert's mock or expert rankings would be more accurate than 12 random posters from the SP.

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If we create a thread for the mock draft, I'm sure the rest of the spots would fill up quickly.  If not, we can reach out to a few posters.  

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1 hour ago, Hankmoody said:

No doubt, but the why is important to me.  We don't know much about Zimmer.  He might be the kind of guy that trusts his process of "you don't put a guy in until you see what you need from him in practice".  You trust your defense, your QB, your coaches, and your other players.  Gase did the same with Ajayi and got a great response.  It's more alarming here because it's longer, but it could just be the same thing.  Note we don't know exactly how many of those DNP's were actually healthy, there was a hamstring injury in there somewhere.  But if it's just a bad fit with him and the QB then maybe I can hang tight to see how that plays out.  If TBW is able to return I'd feel a lot better about that. 

You could be right.  I don't have a good feel on the situation, and I don't know how anyone could feel confident about it either way.  I will say that we do know that there were a high number of healthy DNPs, as Treadwell wasn't on the injury reports.  I doubt the team was risking fines and the loss of draft picks to hide an injured player they didn't bother to play much when he did suit up.  Treadwell aslo said he was healthy and didn't know why he wasn't suiting up.  

 

 

Edited by Concept Coop

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26 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'm contemplating trading him away. Trying to gauge value.

Well then put another way, if you can squeeze a 1st out of Olsen in non ppr then you've done extremely well.  :thumbup:

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47 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

One thing I noticed from the dynasty mocks I took part in last year was that I was often drafting to a strategy and not best player available.

Now that is what happens in a real draft so I do think it is appropriate for owners to draft with building a competitive team that covers the starting requirements.

However for a mock draft list, I think what people are likely more interested in, or what they are looking for is the best player available, as a guide for what players may be closely valued and which are not.

So if we just drafted BPA instead of trying to build the best team for the starting requirements then it won't even matter what order we draft them in  Whoever is checking in could just make the next pick and the draft gets done pretty quickly I would think as anyone could make the next pick.

Or maybe that is too open ended or somehow an organizational nightmare. I am not against some structure.

If we do BPA, wouldn't we be better off just making our own rankings and creating an aggregate set of rankings between them?  I could be misunderstanding you.

Edit: How do you rank players outside of their positional value and a specific setup?  For example, QBs score the most and last the longest. Without drafting for a specific setup, and without lineup requirements, it wouldn't make sense to draft anything else until the quality QBs are gone.  

But again, I could be misunderstanding you. 

Edited by Concept Coop

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Yeah I would say draft like you would draft in an actual draft.  Otherwise you may as well just do rankings.

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10 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Yeah I would say draft like you would draft in an actual draft.  Otherwise you may as well just do rankings.

Only way I know how to do it to be honest. I try and go BPA but can't always do it. I would think if we went BPA RB's would get pushed back since I think they tend to get pushed up more out of need.

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Fort he draft I would say build an actual team.  Are rookies going to be involved?  I almost want to say they shouldn't be cause it will all change a ton after the NFL draft. 

Regarding Treadwell, he is a giant mystery.  Definitely not a target to try and acquire, though if you can get an owner who is bailing, maybe worth spending a 2nd.  I own him in a league, and am probably gonna look to use him in some sort of package to trade for a better player, maybe as the final piece to entice someone who needs to rebuild and has one or two good players on their roster.

I would agree Henry should go a couple rounds before Mccoy (especially if Mccoy is going near round 6 like some  mentioned a few pages back).  Mccoy is a clear "win now" kinda RB with a 1-2 year window for good stats and a lot of usage, while Henry is due to spend another year as a backup, but with a bright future.  Though of course, Murray gets hurt and bam, he would be good this year. 

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1 hour ago, ghostguy123 said:

Fort he draft I would say build an actual team.  Are rookies going to be involved?  I almost want to say they shouldn't be cause it will all change a ton after the NFL draft. 

As an outsider, I think you guys should include rookie picks in your draft as it would be a great valuation gauge prior to the combine and NFL draft.

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