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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
dipandglide
Footballguy
Why is Diggs being valued more than Sammy? Both have missed games (Diggs has never played a full season), so the injury narrative doesn’t apply. There stat lines are similar but Sammy has the best season between the two. He just got paid top WR $. I’m trying to figure this out.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
In our currently going initial draft which includes rookie picks, juju went right before 1.04.
dipandglide
Footballguy
That seems fine. I'd take him over 1.04 without hesitation. I've got him worth the 1.03 or so.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Do you agree? I own both players and was looking to swap them in a deal. I was looking at their stats, missed game totals, and trying to figure out why Diggs is a round or two ahead of Sammy. Who would you be buying at their current price?
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Cooper obv didn't go full Boston but you make a very good point. Cooper looked like a TE out there this past season.
JackReacher
Footballguy
In this draft, I guess JuJu would slot in as the 1.3, but I have him higher than Chubb, Michel, Sutton? so I’d need more on top of the 1.3 to move him.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Travieso
Footballguy
recently bought for 1.8 and J Ross. first offer to me was 1.3 and 1.8 for Freeman. I am low on Ross - curious on his value in 2018?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Good question. I go back and forth on him--buy low or write him off? As this draft class is so deep, I'd likely only pay a late 2nd, at most. I'd take a couple of the QBs over him, as well as a few of my favorite RB/TE sleepers that should slide to that range.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I like Diggs a lot more, but you make a really good point. My argument, I suppose, would be that Sammy is coming off of a healthy, but unproductive season. Diggs' per game numbers have always been solid. I'll fully admit that, when I think about it, my rational doesn't feel especially solid, however.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
I have freeman/Coleman in a league, and every offer I’ve gotten is for both. I wouldn’t sell freeman for less than 1.05 though unless I was full rebuild.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
So I posted this in the trade thread but no one really commented, curious how people are valuing 2019 picks.
Gave 1.10/2.10/3.12
for 2019 1/2/3/4
pretty much random. Could make the playoffs, probably ends up in the middle.
Gave 1.10/2.10/3.12
for 2019 1/2/3/4
pretty much random. Could make the playoffs, probably ends up in the middle.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I think it’s about equal on value. Of course if someone in a Great situation falls to 1.10 you will kick yourself because 1) you could have gotten a great value pick or 2) someone likely would have realized the same thing and paid up for that great value.
Seems like the type of deal that would be available during the draft so I would probably not do it before unless 1) I had too many picks 2) I was getting a more clear win (like 1.10 for 2019 1-4 or 1.10 for mid 2 and 2019 1.)
Snorkelson
Footballguy
It was during the draft, but not on the clock. I had 3 1sts, he took Moore. Wr wasn’t a need so I decided to take a chance that I get a better pick, and possibly a good pick. It’s a new owner and he inherited a good roster but traded away some talent for picks this year.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
For starters I think Diggs has been pretty consistently over valued in rankings and ADP for a couple seasons now.
With Cousins now with the Vikings, maybe Diggs will actually justify the ranking in 2018 but he has definitely fallen short of where he has been valued the last two seasons.
Watkins has been a disappointment as well and he has been in the league for a year longer than Diggs has. Watkins has been on 3 teams already in his short career and took a backseat in terms of opportunities to Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp (as well as Gurley) who I don't think many would see happening to Diggs in the same situation.
As far as comparing their injuries, Watkins injury was more serious than what Diggs has dealt with. I think there is more risk with Watkins. One of the Rams games that I watched last season I saw Watkins pull up lame and quit on his route. Goff was extending the play and looking at Watkins the whole way, he was going to get Watkins the ball if he hadn't quit on his route. I assume the reason Watkins quit on this route was due to some sort of pain in his knee, its otherwise inexcusable. So maybe Watkins was affected by his injury more than we know?
Facts
Watkins has missed 12 games over 4 seasons. So averaging 4 games per year missed so far.
Diggs has missed 5 games in 3 seasons or 1.6 games missed per year. The 3 games he missed in 2015 were due to the coaches playing Charles Johnson ahead of Diggs for the first 3 games of Diggs career, even though Diggs likely should have earned the start in training camp.
So their injury history isn't the same. Watkins injuries were more serious. Diggs has missed games and played poorly in others he gutted out due to groin and hamstring injuries. If you look at their profiles at sports injury predictor, Watkins is high risk, Diggs is low risk.
Their stat lines are not really that similar.
Diggs 40 games 291 targets 200 receptions 68.7% catch rate 2472 yards 12.4 ypr 15 TD 5 receptions per game 61.8 yards per game .375 TD per game 8.5 yards per target.
Watkins 51 games 346 targets 192 receptions 55.5% catch rate 3052 yards 15.9 ypr 25 TD 3.7 receptions per game 58.7 yards per game .49 TD per game 8.8 yards per target.
So the difference between them is that Watkins has a higher TD rate and a higher yards per target than Diggs has, even with the much lower catch rate and fewer opportunities per game than Diggs.
I would say that Watkins is closer to the same value in standard scoring leagues while Diggs has been more valuable in PPR leagues because he has more receptions and generally more consistent in his production than Watkins.
Watkins is one year older than Diggs is.
Watkins was the 4th overall pick of the 2014 draft class and considered the best of this epically good WR class.
Diggs was a 5th round pick in 2015 that didn't have as much talent at WR in it as 2014 did.
Generally I think Watkins is a bit under valued and there are some good reasons for that, while DIggs is a bit overvalued and there are some reasons for that as well.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
From what I am earing the 2019 draft should be strong at WR and likely not as strong at RB.Snorkelson said:
I think the trade you made is fair when you consider some discount for the time you have to wait for the 2019 picks to mature the overall value favors your side as the 2019 picks have a good chance to be higher than the picks in 2018 you gave up.
The trade makes a lot of sense if you are targeting WR upgrades for your team that you are less likely to hit on in 2018.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Thanks for your thoughts and opinions.
Do you not put much stock into the interest Sammy received during free agency? He got paid BIGGG money by guys who make a living evaluating players, injuries, etc.. I know there's a difference between IRL and fantasy, just pointing it out because it's something that shouldn't be ignored. Three teams for Sammy is irrelevant to me because the Bills reset their whole roster and LAR wanted to re-sign him. Sammy comes off as alpha and would like to see more than 70 targets or whatever he received from Goff, we shouldn't knock him for moving onto greener pastures.
It's an interesting debate, imo. I'm excited to see how both careers play out as they're moving into their primes.
dipandglide
Footballguy
1.01 vs 1.02/1.03 in ppr
Which side do you prefer in dynasty? It will likely come down to landing spots before there's a clear side. I woke up with that offer in my inbox and am curious what your opinions are.
Which side do you prefer in dynasty? It will likely come down to landing spots before there's a clear side. I woke up with that offer in my inbox and am curious what your opinions are.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Mayyyybe if I had a roster devoid of talent I'd take the two picks. In most every situation I'd want the 1.1.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If Watkins can stay healthy and play through every whistle I think he has more upside than Diggs. Watins could be a top 12 WR with health and opportunity.
Diggs maybe could also, but I see his upside more as a WR two in fantasy, not the same ceiling and upside as Watkins because of the TDs and the yards per target as indicators of that.
There is more risk with Watkins though, so a lower downside than Diggs, who is a pretty safe investment.
Diggs was a WR two for fantasy last season because he scored 8 TD. He has shown progress in each of his 3 seasons. Diggs will likely get a similar contract to Watkins and Landry if he has a good season this year.
It seems like an odd use of resources to me for the Rams to trade for Watkins then let him walk because of money, then trade draft picks for Brandin Cooks and a similarly expensive contract. That along with the lack of production with the Rams last season gives me pause about his health.
Buffalo traded up for Watkins in the 2014. There have been a lot of resources used on this player, so yes that matters to me, as it tells us how much teams value Watkins talent, even though he hasn't been healthy enough to prove it yet. The teams who had him for a season or more were willing to cut bait. There is risk.
az_prof
Footballguy
I have the 1.01 and probably wouldn't take that but if you were in a league where you could trade the 1.03 for a good WR then I might. Guice and a receiver like JuJu might be equal value.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I drafted kittle in 3/3 leagues last year late, and have moved him in 2 and have had some offers in the other, but I want to keep one share.
Couple guys that could be on waivers right now that could be factors-
vance McDonald- acquired last year, he didn’t really do much during the season. In the playoffs Ben looked to him a lot. If he gets the PT he could be a solid option
michael Roberts- not going to wow you with athleticism, but he could be the starter, uses his body to shield defenders, and has huge hands.
RC94
Footballguy
I picked up Roberts in a couple of leagues, but have been thinking about trying for a "safer" or more traditional high upside TE. I also picked up McDonald in the league where he was on the waiver wire, but similar to Roberts I have been thinking about trying to supplement that with a bigger name. Now that I have had them for a couple of weeks, I have been rethinking that and am becoming more open to seeing what I have with them instead of spending a lot to get a bigger name.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Stephen Anderson in Houston?
Seal-Jones in Arizona?
Vance McDonald in Pittsburgh?
Jonnu Smith in Tennessee?
Seal-Jones in Arizona?
Vance McDonald in Pittsburgh?
Jonnu Smith in Tennessee?
Pwingles
Footballguy
Until Walker leaves, I think this is roughly the order it should be in. Anderson is in an OK spot unless they really decide not to use him for some reason, he isnt a good blocker so he might find himself in a very situational role. Doesnt necessarily mean anything for FF purposes.
If Walker loses his spot, gets traded or hurt I would put Jonnu at the top of this list.
RSJ intrigues me. I didnt like his situation with Arians being the coach, because he rarely throws to TE, but a new coach and offense, probably a rookie qb at some point are all good things for a huge RZ target
Vance sucks
That's interesting. Would depend on need. If your team is deep but needs an elite talent, keep the 1.01. If your team is lacking RB talent, take the 1.02 and 1.03 and hope Barkley goes somewhere less than ideal and two guys end up in great spots. If really talent depleted, could draft one RB and trade back again.
Would be ideal to wait until the NFL draft to make a decision on this trade offer.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I am trying to get Howard and Everett if I can get them for cheaper than they were this time last year. I'd also take a gamble on Eifert if it was a good value play.
I like Gathers at his ADP, but he's owned by a Cowboys fan in all my leagues.
Short term I would try to get Dickson as a throw in, or draft in the 5th round if available as a FA instead of a long term rookie project.
Idiot Boxer
Footballguy
Was offered JuJu Smith-Schuster and a 2019 1st round pick for this year's 1.01
I declined.
I declined.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with most of what you are saying. I really like Jonnu Smith, but his opportunity is blocked unil Walker moves on. He is still the guy I would prefer to have out of the other options that were listed.
Bruce Arians retired so his historical use of TE has no bearing on RSJ's opportunity with the Cardinals.
Steve Wilks their new head coach has a defensive background, so I don't know what his plans for the team are. Mike McCoy is the offensive coordinator, so I suppose looking at his history might offer some insight.
I think RSJ fleeting production was more a product of the Cardinals having so many receivers injured more than anything else. I don't really believe in him long term.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
To be clear I wasn't ranking them this way. It's just a few cheap options that might turn into something. All longshots.
Not sure what there isn't to like about Vance. Admittedly don't know much about him other than he is athletic and plays for Pitt now. I don't really see Jesse James being the guy.
I'd like to learn more about the new coaches in AZ re: TE use.
How old is Walker now? 34 this season. I like him and he absolutely blocks Jonnu for now. I like Smith but not sure if I want to wait for him to take over.
Anderson might have value if Watson and that offense shines. Doesn't have much competition there. Ryan Griffin? A rookie they draft?
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
With CJ getting cut, what is the fair value in terms of a rookie pick pre-draft for Booker right now, if one were gambling what is the right sell/buy price?
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
As a share holder in one PPR league, I'd sell for a 2nd or better. Otherwise I'd keep him to see if he pans out.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't own him, but would happily sell him for a 2nd. Maybe even a 3rd, on the clock. He's looked thoroughly underwhelming to me.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I am a fan of Devontae Booker in Utah and I thought he would prove to be a lot better player than he has so far with the Broncos.
Booker has been good as a receiver and has been more efficient than Anderson as a receiver by objective metrics such as catch percentage and yards per target. He has been below average as a runner so far in his career and not as good as Anderson in this area.
Henderson looked great in the preseason but did not do much with his 7 rushing attempts last season.
The Broncos offensive line has been a mess and I am not sure how much they have improved there. None of the RB were doing all that great. Anderson was below average in ypc and catch rate the last two seasons. He was more effective prior to this in 2014 and 2015 when I think the Broncos offensive line was a bit better than its been the last two seasons.
I would likely be willing to give pick 18-20 or later for Booker right now. My optimism about him isn't as high as it was for him as a prospect (ranked him similarly to Derrick Henry) coming into the league because he has struggled. He didn't maintain a significant time share with Anderson last season. A new RB from a very good draft class could relegate Booker to COP pretty easily. He could also cede playing time to Henderson or another RB.
I would be more comfortable paying a 3rd round pick or some other player on my roster for Booker than the late 2nd round pick, but if pressed I think 18 is the highest price I would pay.
As a seller I would try to get more than pick 18 back to move him, as I do like Booker and I could easily see there being a higher sell point for him later this year if he does get enough opportunity and has some good games.
There may be a lower buy point after the draft, if the Broncos draft another RB fairly high. I do think several of the rookie RB I have watched this year could take the job from him. He is a risky buy right now, so buying for a 3rd round pick seems fair accounting for that possibility.
dipandglide
Footballguy
How are you guys feeling about Thielen? Where would you value him in the rookie draft?
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
