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I also don't own any shares, but it's a major bummer to see a guy get hurt when everything is set up for him to break out.
Had him at #5 before as most did but there was a huge gap between 5 and 6. He might still be #5 for me. Maybe Burton ahead of him but still think id rather have him than Njoku, Howard or the older guys.
I guess in other words, Evans has a huge tier gap in front of him in your view? And maybe MT is ahead of him?
Collins - late 2nd but Dixon scares me so I'd really want to find a way to acquire both if acquiring Collins
Seems about right. Fwiw, I had almost this exact conversation with another owner, he's considering offering Howard for Henry plus just a little something, I'm considering offering Graham straight up.
I never had Davis (not for lack of trying), but to be fair, he WAS actually a very good player but an injury killed his career. His stats were pretty impressive (16g average for his career was almost 2000 yfs) considering he was playing for a crap team with Dom Capers :X as the HC and David Carr as the QB: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviDo01.htm
I'm with you that Cooper>CMC long term, but man, I don't feel good about Oakland this year. I've been tempted to try to trade for Cooper, but I have a feeling he'll be much cheaper in ~7 months.
I agree that Gruden's personnel moves look very train wreckish - but he was an WRs coach and then an OC (with Philadelphia) before becoming a HC - he was not a defense guy. He also ran some pretty decent offenses and got a lot out of journeyman type QBs like Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson and Jeff Garcia.
Not sure where you are getting your numbers. I just quickly looked up his 4 years in Oakland (didn't check out the Bucs years) and they were 3rd and 4th in points his last two years there, and 4th/7th in yards.
I was just looking at that too. I'm not sure where that info is coming from because I've read it in multiple places. I stand corrected. All I've read must be in reference to his time in Tampa which was markedly worse than his time in Oakland outside of the Super Bowl year
I had him as top two dynasty TE before the injury, he and Engram and was really not sure which one I preferred. He'll have 15 months to recover and will play almost entire 2019 season at 24 years old so long term I'm not worried about him but a year is a year. I was already close with him vs the the older set(Ertz, Kelce, Gronk) and now he's behind all or most of them.
I'd pay up to a mid 2nd, but I was able to get him for a mid 3rd about a month ago
I paid 2.02 before the draft. It was kind of a brain fart though, anf I immediately regretted it. Mid-2nd sounds about right.
I think Collins is more of a late 1st than late 2nd, he is the starter right now and looked good last year
A contending team with a major hole to plug should be willing to overpay for Fitz (assuming 1PPR). If I was in that situation, I'd easily pay a mid-2nd. I'd obviously shop around before paying a high 2nd, but if I couldn't find willing WR sellers outside of the guy selling Fitz, I'd probably bite the bullet and pay a high 2nd. I know this time of year that feels hard to do, but if we take a step back, the hit rate on high 2nds is poor and you've (hypothetically) got a hole to plug and a championship to win - it's no time to worry about high risk players with little 2018 upside. In PPR, Fitz is a very nice 1-year rental.
2019 2nd would be my guess.
I guess it depend on your league but in FFPC where it is TE premium I don't think anyone would sell him for that, I'd expect reasonable sellers would take a late 1st
I tried to do this exact thing in a couple of different leagues and never was able to close a deal. I offered 2nd rounders, and even 2nd rounders with a players going back (not particularly good ones, but still) and got rebuffed at every attempt. In one league, the guy was claiming that Fitz should be worth a future 1st and more.
I guess I'm not reasonable because I'd not move him for a late future first. The late future first would not help my team anymore next year than HH. I just don't think I'd do better with a late one drafting an unproven rookie who if things work out usually takes time then a 24 year old ready to start TE(which he'll be entering next year).
maybe 'reasonable' is the wrong word, I know you already like Hunter Henry so not talking about owners like you. What I'm trying to say is if an owner is willing to give up on him I don't think they would sell for less than late 1st. I also agree that I'd be willing to pay a little more and would not sell him for that price but I think it is possible you can find a deal at that price in FFPC (not less) in some cases.
That's crazy.
Sometimes you just have to give up. If a guy wouldn't take an early 2nd, I'd just saw screw it and hope Gallup falls to me and has some decent value in 2018. I think if you can break off the HH owners something that can help them now it would help the deal. Like if I'm sitting on Olsen and have some TE depth, I'd offer him and a future one for HH. Does not have to be a TE, if I got depth at a spot that can help the HH owner in 2018 I just think that can help a deal get done.
I would pay a 2019 2nd in a flash in all formats. He's worth a lot more than that in true, full-on dynasty leagues.
Can you provide examples of QBs who meet these criteria?
I cant imagine how many beers someone would need to drink in order to trade Henry away for a future 2nd. Why trade away a guy you can IR when he will be worth more than the future pick you are getting this time next year?
Big Ben. Tom Brady if you ignore #1. In just about every other case I checked, season 3 was the year QBs cracked the top 10. Winston was on par, at least, through the first 2 seasons, and suffered a shoulder injury in season 3.
Matt Ryan
I mean that he has immediately high upside, where ARob may need Mitch to develop a year or two more before having the same upside, or at least the same probability of reaching that upside. Adams has long term upside as well.
Others have answered your question, so I'll just provide a little data.
Roethlisberger seems a bit like apples and oranges. He was great in his first two seasons, but on unusually low volume. He was in the top 10 in all of these categories in both of his first two seasons: passer rating, completion percentage, YPA, and TD percentage.Concept Coop said:
Addressed Roethlisberger above.Hankmoody said:
I was referring to top 10 NFL QB, not fantasy QB. This all started with me saying that I think Evans is overrated in fantasy in part because he will have Winston as his QB for the next decade, and Winston is average at best. That was a reference to quality of QB play, not QB fantasy points.FF Ninja said:
Winston was 7th in YPG last year, 4th in YPA, 12th in PCT.
Magic_Man said:
OK, you make some fair points in this entire exchange. While I don't see Winston becoming an elite QB, I concede I probably overstated that he will never be more than average at best.
I'll add that I was really surprised how make-or-break year 3 seemed to be for QBs when I looked - good call. (And I was wrong about Brady's third season.)
Cooper is hard to peg. Which rookies other than Saquon would you take over him?FF Ninja said:
When I think of Jets WR's, I think of my bench. And I think, "Do I want to gamble a bench slot on a sub par player who may luck into a starting role, and actually pay off?" Maybe.
Could be no one is getting them.Magic_Man said:
I have Enunwa in one league, picked him up from waivers a few years ago and the league is deep enough where it's not worth dropping him. I view him as a bye week fill in, equal to Cole, Jordan Matthews, and for now Taywan Taylor (I have higher hopes for TT). If someone offered me an upgrade from another player and he was the cost, I'd likely jump all over it.
Ah ok, I missed that. However, I do think it's a bit of a flawed premise. Are you staying away from OBJ because he's saddled with a 37 y.o. Eli? AJ Green and Dalton? Hell, Andre Johnson never had a QB who threw 30 TDs in a season for his entire career. I get that you think Evans is overrated only "in part" due to Winston, but on the topic of Winston as he pertains to Evans' fantasy value I think these points are relevant:
I think of it a lot like the Jags current WR group. Crowded with very few indicators of who is actually good. One of them will likely be above average by default, but who?
Good comparison. Someone will have some value but hard to put a finger on who. Enunwa was a popular breakout candidate last year, and is probably the cheapest. Anderson had a nice year but was pretty much the only man left standing. Pryor is getting paid like a starter, but who knows who will be on the other side.
